3008大立光 1130412 JPM
3008大立光 1130412 JPM
12 April 2024
Although we sense that the Street may feel that Largan’s management has left a mixed
message after the earnings call, we are getting more positive on the company, due to Technology
1) positive profits growth in 2024E, 2) product mix improvement in the near future William Yang AC
driven by Android models, 3) full UTR in 2H24 even after capacity expansion, and (886-2) 2725-9899
[email protected]
4) potential gross margin recovery thanks to yield rate enhancement. Trading at 13x
2024E P/E (vs. historical avg of 17x) with 23% EPS growth in 2024E, we think if there Megan Hsueh
(886-2) 2725-9249
is any share price volatility, it would create buying opportunities; OW.
[email protected]
• 1Q24 review. EPS of NT$45.8 beat JPMe/consensus estimates of NT$39.8/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited
NT$32.9, thanks mainly to greater non-op income support. The beat on non-op
income was driven by the substantial FX gain (~NT$2.34bn gain). For its
Key Changes (FYE Dec)
operating profit (+21% YoY, -50% QoQ), it was a 13% miss vs. Street
Prev Cur
estimates, due to revenue decline on seasonality with GM drop. GM of 49.2% Adj. EPS - 24E (NT$) 159.14 164.99
(vs. 49.4% in 1Q23 and 52.8% in 4Q23) was lower than our estimate given
lower UTR and sales scale, offsetting improving yield rate. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)
Adj. EPS (NT$)
• 2024 outlook. For its near-term 2Q24 sales, we model it to slightly decline by 2023A 2024E 2025E
4% QoQ given low season, and the company expects April and May sales to Q1 24.64 45.79A 39.24
be similar to March sales of NT$3.5bn, while the order visibility for June Q2 27.68 27.71 32.13
remains low at the moment. Looking into 2H24, management thinks its 4Q24 Q3 44.58 41.08 42.62
Q4 37.18 50.41 55.99
UTR could be full with new capacity entering production, mainly due to more FY 134.06 164.99 169.99
complicated manufacturing technology for larger-sized lens (higher end spec
with higher ASP). We believe the company could deliver decent profit growth Style Exposure
this year, backed by further product mix enhancement through higher Android
rev mix and more advanced spec adoption in new models, in addition to
continued yield improvements. With these positive factors going forward, we
model its 2024 sales and EPS to grow 11% and 23% YoY, respectively, despite
relatively muted 1H24.
• Other takeaways. (1) The smartphone lens spec upgrades have not been
meaningful in 1H24, most of which will be in 2H24; (2) for the next 6-12
months, we do not see too many upgrades in lower end models, while upgrades
mainly happen in flagship models; (3) ASP, UTR and yield will be the main
factors to impact GM in 2024, and the magnitude will be ASP > UTR > yield;
(4) yield rate will continue to improve this year, and the yield for 2H24 new
models should also improve more smoothly with experiences from last year;
(5) the main reason for the expected full UTR in 4Q24 is not volume up but lens
becoming bigger (so the manufacturing becomes more complicated, requiring
more capacity); (6) the company has obtained molding glass + plastic lens
projects this year, despite relatively small volume; (7) it is likely to have new
capacity expansion in 2025, with the larger size of the manufacturing site.
• Implication. We lift our 2024E EPS by 4% to NT$165, mainly to reflect a
better outlook in 2H24 and stronger non-op support. Our Jun-24 PT is revised
up to NT $2,800, based on a 17x 2024E P/E, in-line with the average P/E since
2012.
Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 11 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be
complete or exact.
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William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
NT$mn 1Q24 Actual JPMe Variance Consensus Variance 1Q23 % YoY 4Q23 % QoQ
Sales 11,313 12,416 -9% 12,205 -7% 9,136 24% 17,883 -37%
Gross Profit 5,563 6,586 -16% 6,017 -8% 4,513 23% 9,438 -41%
GM (%) 49.2% 53.0% -387 bps 49.3% -13 bps 49.4% -22 bps 52.8% -360 bps
Operating profit 3,961 5,121 -23% 4,571 -13% 3,269 21% 7,906 -50%
OPM (%) 35.0% 41.2% -623 bps 37.5% -244 bps 35.8% -77 bps 44.2% -920 bps
Pretax profit 7,430 6,332 17% 5,410 37% 3,909 90% 6,130 21%
PTM (%) 65.7% 51.0% 1,468 bps 44.3% 2,135 bps 42.8% 2,289 bps 34.3% 3,139 bps
Net profit 6,111 5,318 15% 4,453 37% 3,289 86% 4,971 23%
NM (%) 54.0% 42.8% 1,118 bps 36.5% 1,753 bps 36.0% 1,802 bps 27.8% 2,622 bps
EPS (NT$) 45.8 39.8 15% 32.9 39% 24.6 86% 37.2 23%
3
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
• Depreciation: NT$1.38bn.
• FX gain (in non-op income): NT$2.34bn.
• The composition of our 1Q24 opex was no big change vs. past quarters.
• Monthly sales guidance: April and May would both be similar to March, while June
visibility is still limited.
Have you seen any lens upgrade trend in smartphone recently or in 2H24?
• We have not seen too many new brands adopting higher specs in 1H24.
• Spec upgrades will happen mainly in 2H24, mostly through wider adoption of
existing high-end specs (e.g. periscope, glass + plastic lens, variable aperture).
• The focus for this year will be the penetration magnitude of these existing specs.
ASP pressure for these high-end specs in 2024 (as it has started to gain adoption
since 2023)?
• If customers continue to use the same spec this year, ASP will drop a little.
Customer design-in usually needs 6-12 months, so we can see 2H24-1H25’s new
model specs. Have you see any trends?
4
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
With more G+P lens adoption, do you think this spec upgrade trend could help us
sustain our leadership position in the industry or widen our tech gap vs peers?
What is the reason for only a small amount of molding glass adoption?
• In 4Q24, we will run all of our capacity, both old and new ones (UTR full).
• The main reason for 4Q24 full UTR is the lens becoming bigger so the
manufacturing becomes more complicated, not because of higher volume.
Do we do prisms ourselves?
5
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
• For plastic prisms, we make them ourselves, but now, it only passed verification and
still not sure if customers will adopt plastic ones.
• ASP, UTR and yield will be the main factors. The impact level: ASP > UTR > yield.
• Old model yield will improve.
• Yes there are customers discussing with us but still at the very initial stage, so we are
not sure about the actual adoption.
6
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
Valuation
Our Jun-24 PT of NT$2,800 is based on a 17x 2024E P/E, in line with the average of
17x since 2012.
Figure 1: Largan’s share price vs. 1yr fwd P/E Figure 2: Largan’s share price vs. 1yr fwd P/B and 1yr fwd ROE
NT$ NT$, %
6,000 6,000 60%
5,000 5,000 50%
4,000 40%
4,000
3,000 30%
3,000
2,000 20%
2,000 1,000 10%
1,000 0 0%
0 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-
Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Price 2x 3x 4x
Price 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 5x 6x Fwd ROE
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Figure 3: Largan’s share price vs. historical mean 1yr fwd P/E Figure 4: Largan’s share price vs. historical mean 1yr fwd P/B
x x
35 8.0 +2std
30 +2std 7.0
+1std
25 6.0
+1std
5.0 mean
20
mean 4.0
15 -1std
3.0
10 -1std
2.0 -2std
5 -2std 1.0
- -
Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
7
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
8
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
9
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
10
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts
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with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the Research Analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the
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Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to Largan
Precision Co Ltd.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Largan Precision Co Ltd.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies)
as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Largan Precision Co Ltd.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Largan Precision Co Ltd.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Largan Precision Co Ltd, if any.
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Date Rating Price (NT$) Price Target
(NT$)
07-Oct-21 N 2090.00 2,400
07-Apr-22 N 1775.00 2,000
14-Apr-22 N 1630.00 1,950
15-Jul-22 N 1905.00 2,100
13-Oct-22 N 1750.00 2,080
16-Nov-22 OW 2125.00 2,500
28-Mar-23 OW 2260.00 2,550
08-Sep-23 OW 2070.00 2,400
11-Jan-24 OW 2525.00 2,600
12-Jan-24 OW 2550.00 2,700
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
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J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight (over the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will
outperform the average total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe); Neutral (over
the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the
Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe); and Underweight (over the duration of the price target indicated in
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team’s, coverage universe. NR is Not Rated. In this case, J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock
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11
William Yang AC Asia Pacific Equity Research
(886-2) 2725-9899 12 April 2024 JPMORGAN
[email protected]
and U.K. small- and mid-cap Equity Research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark
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Coverage Universe: Yang, William: AAC Technologies Holdings (2018) (2018.HK), AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW), ASMedia
Technology Inc. (5269.TW), Advanced Energy Solution Holding (6781.TW), Advantech (2395.TW), Andes Technology Corp (6533.TW), Asia
Vital Components (3017.TW), Auras Technology (3324.TW), Genius Electronic Optical Co., Ltd (3406.TW), GlobalWafers Co., Ltd
(6488.TWO), Largan Precision Co Ltd (3008.TW), Macronix (2337.TW), Parade Technologies (4966.TWO), Realtek Semiconductor
(2379.TW), Silergy Corp (6415.TW), Simplo Technology Co Ltd (6121.TWO), Speed Tech Corp (5457.TWO), Sunny Optical Technology
Group Co. (2382) (2382.HK), Winbond (2344.TW)
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Completed 12 Apr 2024 12:02 AM HKT Disseminated 12 Apr 2024 12:02 AM HKT
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