T.R.

PRIME MINISTRY
STATE PLANNING ORGANISATION

THE LIKELY EFFECTS OF

TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP
UPON THE EU

December 2004
 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 2
A- THE LEGAL SITUATION 5
1. Turkey-EU Relations 5

B- POLITICAL ISSUES 8
1. Fulfilment of the Political Criteria and Implementation 8
2. Turkey’s Weight in the EU Decision-Making Mechanisms 11
3. Contribution of Turkey’s Membership to Making the EU A Global Power 13
4. Contribution of Turkey’s Membership to the EU Capacity to Fight Terrorism 15
5. Contribution of Turkey’s EU Membership to the Settlement of the Cyprus Question 16

C- ECONOMIC ISSUES 18
1. Fulfilment of the Economic Criteria 18
2. The Impact of EU Membership on Turkey’s Development 21
3. Turkey’s Economic Integration with the EU 24
4. Budgetary Implications of Turkey’s Membership for the EU 29
5. The Enlargement of the EU Internal Market and the Competitive Advantage of EU Firms in 34
the Common Legal and Economic Environment
6. The Contribution of Turkey’s Young and Educated Population to the EU Economy 36
7. Free Movement of Workers and Migration from Turkey to EU Countries 40

D- SOCIAL and CULTURAL ISSUES 41

1. The Contribution of Turkey’s Membership to the EU Mosaic 41
ANNEXES 43

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

INTRODUCTION

Relations between Turkey and the European Union have a long history, which started
with the association established by the Ankara Agreement in the early 1960s, continued with
the Additional Protocol which regulates the transitional period of the association in the 1970s,
and reached an advanced level with the creation of a customs union between the parties in
1996. Throughout this long process, the main perspective in Turkey-EU relations was full
membership and this goal was the driving force behind the progress achieved in relations. The
Helsinki European Council of 1999 irrevocably confirmed Turkey’s candidate status.

The European Union, which had 6 members when the association relationship was
established with Turkey, has today become a structure with 25 members. This number will
rise to 27 after Romania and Bulgaria become members in the coming years. Today, the
European Union appears as a giant bloc with a population of about 455 million and a total
output of 10 trillion euros, where no single member state - regardless of its size - dominates.
This Union, whose founding philosophy includes the principles of peace, freedom, welfare,
the rule of law, and solidarity, is the symbol of a successful integration effort which
influences not only the continent of Europe but also the whole mankind at the global level.

Continuously transforming as a moving target with its dynamics of enlargement and

deepening, the European Union has, on the one hand, gathered strength with new members
and, on the other, enabled its members to develop faster in a favourable and stable
environment.

Ever since it was founded, the Republic of Turkey has turned its face towards the
West, has aimed to “rise above the level of contemporary civilisation”, and has carried out
wide-ranging reforms by its own will in line with this aim. The goal of membership of the
European Union has emerged as a natural extension of this effort for modernisation in the
wider sense and has been adopted both by State institutions and by a great majority of the
population. Support for membership of the European Union, which appears to be steadily
above 70 percent in public opinion surveys, proves that the Turkish people regard the values
of the European Union as overlapping with its own goals. In the search for more democracy,
for a stronger economy, for the rule of law and for peace and stability, the goals which
overlap with those of the European Union are operating as dynamics that motivate change in
Turkey. Especially after the Helsinki European Council, this change gained an important
momentum and continued. This process, combined with the internal will for change in Turkey
as a dynamic country, has accelerated the efforts of renewal which are maintained in a
comprehensive framework under the conditions of the knowledge-based society of the 21st
century.

In December 2004, the Heads of State and Government of the European Union
member states will make an important political decision on the opening of negotiations with
Turkey on the basis of the Regular Report released by the European Commission in early
October. The decision to be made will not be one of accession, as some circles incorrectly
think, but it will only concern the opening of negotiations. How long the negotiation process
takes and how the transitional arrangements are formulated in terms of the acquis to be
incorporated will be determined in this process. The start of the negotiation process will, on

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

the one hand, accelerate the process of reform in Turkey and, on the other, contribute
positively to the sustainable high growth performance of the Turkish economy. This positive
performance to be achieved in interaction with the European Union will ultimately help
construct a more prosperous and stable future for the whole of Europe.

By the time of Turkey’s accession, both the European Union and Turkey will be
different from what they are now. Turning many issues which today are perceived as
problems into an advantage in a medium- and long-term perspective confronts us as a great
opportunity. The synergy to be created by the steps to be mutually taken and by the
interaction to be achieved will favourably affect the European Union as well as Turkey. With
its young population, growing market, geostrategic position and democratic structure, the
Republic of Turkey will be an important actor in Europe’s developing and extending its
dynamism in the 21st century.

Being European is not something rigidly determined by geography and history with a
focus on the past. Being European means above all else focusing on the future and
continuously renewing one’s identity in a lively and democratic environment of debate. As
has been until now, the European identity must be open to new syntheses and developments
also in the future. Otherwise, it would become difficult to reproduce and utilise Europe’s
historical experience and achievements on the global scale. Turning in upon itself and
confined to a narrow and static definition of identity, Europe would not send a positive
message either to its own citizens or to the rest of the world. On the other hand, a Europe
united around universal ideals and values would maintain its spirit of self-criticism and its
dynamism. In this context, the development of Turkey’s relations with the EU will play a key
role not only for Europe itself but also for the new global relations that will come into being
in the 21st century.

This Report has been produced to underline the fact that the decision to be made by
the European Union at a strategic juncture will have beneficial consequences not only for
Turkey but for Europe and for the world in general as well. In particular, this fact, which is
also stressed by many European intellectuals and statesmen who carefully study developments
and trends in the world and in our region, needs to be further investigated analytically.

As in the previous waves of enlargement, it is clear that Turkey’s membership will

impose certain costs on the European Union in the medium- and long-term. Given its current
level of development, Turkey will be in the position of a net recipient from the EU budget.
However, it is also a fact that those costs are expressed in excessively large figures without an
objective calculation. This Report includes an effort to calculate those costs as objectively as
possible, albeit with various uncertainties. In addition, it sets out the contributions to be
provided by Turkey to the development of the European economy, particularly in the areas of
growth, foreign trade and entrepreneurship, in parallel to Turkey’s medium- and long-term
development trends. In more clear words, Turkey will not be a country that just takes a share
in the cake, but one that makes the cake bigger and richer.

Although it is a fact that the European Union, founded on the rule of law, is at the
stage of a historical decision that goes beyond a quantitative cost and benefit analysis at the
current phase of mutual relations, it is expected that a proper impact assessment will have
useful results for an understanding of the mutual benefits. In this context, it is hoped that the
Report, intended to contribute to a dialogue and cooperation based on transparent and
analytical studies, will complement similar studies to be undertaken by the European Union. It

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

is expected that this Report, which seeks to address relations between Turkey and the
European Union within a perspective focused on the future without neglecting the past
experience, will contribute to more detailed studies to be undertaken in the future.

While preparing the Report, various documents and reports published on this subject
were used. In addition, modelling work was done under certain assumptions, and indicative
projections for the future were developed. Basic magnitudes such as growth, population,
foreign trade and employment were predicted for Turkey and the member states and examined
in a long-term perspective. Furthermore, this modelling work was enriched with studies made
in various sectoral areas.

The Report consists of four parts:

The first part, under the heading of the legal situation, includes the historical process
of development of EU-Turkey relations. The second part includes the political contributions
to be made by Turkey to the EU, while the third part addresses the economic contributions.
The final part of the Report evaluates Turkey’s contributions to the social texture and cultural
mosaic of the EU.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

A- THE LEGAL SITUATION

1. Turkey-EU Relations

a) The Association Regime

Relations between Turkey and the EU have developed under the association regime
based on the Ankara Agreement, which was signed between the European Community (EC)
and Turkey on 12 September 1963 and which entered into force on 1 December 1964.

The Ankara Agreement envisages that the development of the association relationship
established between Turkey and the EC in the direction of Turkey’s full membership, which is
the final goal of that association, should take place through three stages: the preparatory stage,
the transitional stage and the final stage.

During the transitional stage, regulated by the Additional Protocol which was signed
on 23 November 1970 and which entered into force on 1 January 1973, it was envisaged that
a customs union covering industrial products should be gradually established between the
parties, that free movement of workers should be mutually ensured, that a gradually extending
preferential trade regime should be implemented in agricultural products, that legislation and
policies in the areas specified in the Additional Protocol should be aligned between Turkey
and the EC, and that the process of the free movement of services should be started.

In the transitional stage, Turkey-EU association relations did not develop as expected
and came to a freezing point in the 1980s.

On 14 April 1987, Turkey applied for membership of the European Communities,

making use of a right granted to all European countries. In the Opinion of the European
Commission which was issued in 1989, it was concluded that Turkey was basically eligible
for membership but it would be appropriate for the time being to postpone the decision to be
made on Turkey’s membership.

In mutual relations which were revitalised in the early 1990s, the stage was reached of
fully establishing a customs union between Turkey and the EC in the area of industrial
products under Decision No. 1/95 of EC-Turkey Association Council of 6 March 1995. In
accordance with the Decision, the customs union between Turkey and the EC began to
operate on 1 January 1996.

b) The Process of Candidacy

Turkey communicated to the EU its wish to take part in the new enlargement process
launched by the EU in 1996.

At the European Council of Cardiff in 1998, Turkey was included in the reporting
system in which other candidates were also included, and the first Regular Report assessing
Turkey’s performance with regard to the Copenhagen criteria was published in 1998.

At the EU Summit of Heads of State and Government that was held in Helsinki on 10-
11 December 1999, Turkey was admitted as a candidate for EU membership on an equal basis
with the other candidate countries. It was stated in the summit conclusions that Turkey was a

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

candidate country in the framework of the same criteria applicable to all candidate countries
and that a “Pre-Accession Strategy” would be developed for Turkey with a view to the
implementation of the reforms necessary for membership. It was also stated that Turkey
would be allowed to benefit from Community Programmes in the process of accession and be
included in the meetings to be held between the EU and the candidate countries. In addition, it
was envisaged that a national programme should be prepared concerning the adoption of the
EU acquis for Turkey’s accession to the EU. In this direction, the Heads of State and
Government asked the European Commission to carry out a study on the EU legislation to be
adopted by Turkey and to prepare a framework for the coordination of all pre-accession
financial assistance to be made available.

After the Helsinki Council declared Turkey a candidate country, the Accession
Partnership, which was prepared by the European Commission and approved by the EU
Council and which includes Turkey’s short- and medium-term priorities in the context of
fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria, including its obligations to align with the EU acquis, and
the financial assistance to be made available for this purpose, was published in the Official
Journal of the European Communities on 24 March 2001.

In parallel to the Accession Partnership, the Turkish National Programme for the
Adoption of the EU Acquis (the National Programme), which includes the amendments to be
made in Turkish legislation and the new legislative measures to be adopted for alignment with
the EU acquis, the human and financial resources needed for alignment, the development of
the required administrative capacity for the adoption of the EU acquis, and a schedule of
short- and medium-term priorities in this regard, was adopted by the Council of Ministers on
19 March 2001.

At the Copenhagen Council held on 12-13 December 2002, it was stated that the
progress made by Turkey in 2002 towards the fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria
welcomed, but it was emphasised that implementation was also important for the fulfilment of
the political criteria. The Council declared that negotiations would be started without delay if
the Council to be held in December 2004 concluded, on the basis of the Commission’s
opinion and recommendations, that Turkey fulfilled the Copenhagen political criteria. The
Council also agreed that the Accession Partnership for Turkey should be revised and the
financial assistance to Turkey should be increased, and the Commission was invited to draft a
new Accession Partnership for Turkey. The Commission accordingly prepared a new
Accession Partnership, which was adopted by the EU Council on 14 April 2003.

In parallel to the new Accession Partnership, the National Programme of 2001 was
revised and adopted by the Council of Ministers on 23 June 2003.

c) Evaluation

Relations between Turkey and the EU continue in the framework of the association
regime, on the one hand, and the candidacy process, on the other.

Turkey continues to fulfil its obligations arising from the association regime in the
candidacy process which started after the Helsinki Council.

Differently from other candidate countries, the legislative alignment already achieved
by Turkey in the framework of the association regime and particularly of the customs union

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

has brought Turkey to an advanced stage in terms of certain headings of the acquis before the
negotiations are opened. In achieving the legislative alignment in question, Turkey has aimed
at full membership which is envisaged in Article 28 of the Ankara Agreement.

Article 28 of the Ankara Agreement provides that as soon as the operation of the
Agreement has advanced far enough to justify envisaging full acceptance by Turkey of the
obligations arising out of the Treaty establishing the Community, the Contracting Parties shall
examine the possibility of the accession of Turkey to the Community.

As this provision makes clear, the final goal of the association regime is Turkey’s
accession to the European Community. In fact, it was with a view to membership that Turkey
entered into the customs union, which means an advanced stage of the association
relationship.

Furthermore, independently of the association regime, the final goal of the candidacy
process into which Turkey entered in the framework of its application for membership in
1987 and the decision adopted by the Helsinki Council is also full membership.

Therefore, at the stage reached in both the association regime and the candidacy
process, it is inconceivable for Turkey to accept any status other than membership.

Article 6 of the Treaty on European Union provides that the European Union is based
on the principles of freedom, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental liberties,
and the rule of law. The association relationship that has been continuing between Turkey and
the EU since 1963 and the subsequent candidacy process also rest on strong legal foundations.

In this framework, basing these relations, which have full membership as their final
goal, on a different ground would damage the principle of the rule of law, which is one of the
fundamental principles of the European Union. Therefore, subjecting Turkey to a special
status other than membership and treating it under different and larger considerations than the
other candidate countries would be incompatible with that principle.

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B- POLITICAL ISSUES

1. Fulfilment of the Political Criteria and Implementation

The political criteria which were decided at the Copenhagen European Council of
1993 and which candidate countries are required to fulfil to become members of the EU
consist in the stable functioning of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law,
human rights and respect for and protection of minorities. The main legislative measures
adopted by Turkey towards the fulfilment of the political criteria are presented below.

First package of harmonisation (Law No. 4744)

Freedom of Adopting the idea of actual danger rather than abstract danger, the Penal Code was
expression amended to make the offence of inciting people openly to enmity or hatred
punishable when it is committed “in a manner that may be dangerous for public
order”.
By an amendment to the Anti-Terrorism Law, punishment was stipulated not for all
types of propaganda but only for “propaganda in favour of an illegal organisation in
such a manner as would encourage the use of terrorist methods”.
State Security By an amendment to the Law on State Security Courts, detention periods were
Courts shortened, the provisions concerning persons under detention in the state-of-
emergency region were improved, and the possibility to have access one’s lawyer at
any time was introduced
Detainee rights The Penal Procedure Code was amended to ensure that relatives of detained or
apprehended persons are promptly notified of detention, apprehension and decisions
to extend the period of detention.

Second package of harmonisation (Law No. 4748)

Fighting against Provision was made for resorting to responsible personnel on account of
torture compensations paid under decisions of the European Court of Human Rights for
offences of torture.
Making the closure The possibility was provided for partly or completely depriving a political party of
of political parties state financial assistance instead of closing it.
more difficult The definition of a “focus” which is used as a ground for closing political parties
was clarified.
Freedom of the Penalties for certain offences committed through the press were reduced.
press The provisions on publishing in a language banned by law were repealed.
Freedom to The conditions required for being a founder of an association were made easier.
establish Restrictions on freedom to establish associations with regard to purpose were
associations reduced.
The bans on associations to use certain names and signs and languages other than
Turkish were eased.
The objectives and areas of activity for student associations were enlarged.
The system of permission was replaced by the system of notification concerning
relations of associations with foreign associations and organisations.
Freedom of The conditions for organising assemblies and demonstrations were lessened.
assembly and The grounds for postponing or banning an assembly or demonstration were reduced.
demonstration
State Security The provisions that restrict the right to see a lawyer for those apprehended or
Courts detained on account of offences within the jurisdiction of State Security Courts were
abolished.
Third package of harmonisation (Law No. 4771)
Death penalty The death penalties under various laws were turned into heavy imprisonment for
life, excluding those stipulated for crimes committed in war and in cases where there
is an imminent threat of war.
Freedom of It was provided that there should be no penalty for written, oral or visual expressions
expression of opinion intended for criticism only, without the intention to insult and degrade the
 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Turkish nation, the Republic, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, the spiritual
personality of the Government, the ministries, the military or security forces or the
spiritual personality of the judiciary.
Community It was provided that community foundations, regardless of whether they have a deed
foundations of trust or not, may acquire and dispose of immovable property with permission
from the Council of Ministers. In addition, it was also provided that, upon an
application within six months from the effective date of the relevant legislation, the
immovable property certified to be under the control of such foundations shall be
registered in their names.
Associations Further provisions were introduced concerning the activities abroad of associations
established in Turkey and the activities in Turkey of associations established abroad.
Retrial It was provided that if the European Court of Human Rights determines that a court
decision which was or became final is in breach of the Convention for the Protection
of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms or the protocols annexed thereto and it
is found that the breach has consequences which cannot be eliminated by
compensation, the Minister of Justice, the Chief Public Prosecutor at the Supreme
Court of Appeals, or the person who applied to the European Court of Human
Rights or his/her legal representative, may request a renewal of the trial within one
year from the date on which the decision became final.
Broadcasting in It was provided that broadcasts may be made in different languages and dialects
different languages traditionally used by Turkish citizens in their daily lives, on condition that such
and dialects broadcasts are not against the fundamental characteristics of the Republic as laid
down in the Constitution or against the indivisible integrity of the State with its land
and nation.
Learning of It was provided that private courses may be opened for the learning of different
different languages languages and dialects traditionally used by Turkish citizens in their daily lives, on
and dialects condition that such courses are not against the fundamental characteristics of the
Republic as laid down in the Constitution or against the indivisible integrity of the
State with its land and nation.
Police Through changes made to the Law on the Duties and Powers of the Police, the
relevant legislation was brought into line with the EU acquis.
Trafficking in Trafficking in immigrants was defined and included in the scope of the Turkish
immigrants and Penal Code, and penalties were introduced for this crime. Provisions were made
human beings with regard to kidnapping of individuals with the aim of forcing them to work or
serve, subjecting them to captivity or similar practices, or taking their body organs.
Fourth package of harmonisation (Law No. 4778)
Associations It was provided that associations shall be required to use Turkish only in their
correspondence with official institutions of the Republic of Turkey, allowing them
to use languages other than Turkish in their other correspondence.
Provision was made for legal persons to become members of an association.
The Civil Code was amended with respect to external activities and relations of local
and foreign associations.
Political parties The closure of political parties was made more difficult.
Freedom of the It was provided that members of the press cannot be forced to disclose their sources
press of news.
Right to petition Foreigners residing in Turkey were granted the right to submit petitions and
complaints to the GNAT and to the administrative authorities, on condition that the
principle of reciprocity is observed and that their petitions are written in Turkish.
Community The Directorate-General of Foundations rather than the Council of Ministers was
foundations specified as the authority to grant permission for community foundations to acquire
and dispose of immovable property.
Judicial registry Provisions were introduced to specify the authorities to which information on
minors in the judicial registry may be provided and the conditions for use of such
information.
Torture and It was provided that penalties for torture and mistreatment cannot be converted into
mistreatment fines or one of the other measures and cannot be suspended, either.
State of emergency The possibility for prisoners in the state of emergency region to be taken out of
prison for the purpose of interrogation was restricted.

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Fifth package of harmonisation (Law No. 4793)
Retrial With regard to civil procedure law and criminal procedure law, the possibility of the
renewal of trial in light of ECtHR decisions was extended.
Sixth package of harmonisation (Law No. 4928)
Freedom of The authority of the Supreme Electoral Board to implement sanctions against private
expression radio and television establishments was reduced.
Provision was made for public and private radio and television establishments to
make broadcasts in different languages and dialects traditionally used by Turkish
citizens in their daily lives.
The period of the broadcasting ban during elections was reduced from 7 days to 24
hours before the elections.
The NSC representative was removed from the Inspection Board.
The scope of inspection subjects under the Law on Cinema, Video and Music Works
was reduced, and it was provided that the court must issue a decision urgently in this
matter.
The definitions of terrorism and illegal organisation in the Anti-Terrorism Law were
revised and the provision concerning propaganda against the indivisible integrity of
the State was abolished.
Full Enjoyment of The time-limit for community foundations to apply for the registration in the their
All Fundamental names of immovable property certified to be under their control was increased from
Rights and 6 months to 18 months.
Freedoms by All Individuals of different religions and faiths were granted wider freedom concerning
Individuals without their places of worship.
Discrimination Restrictions on giving names to children were reduced.

Right to life The penalty for a mother who has killed her newborn baby with the motive to save
honour was made heavier.
The practice of reducing the penalty for offences committed with the motive of
honour and turning it into another penalty was abolished.
Retrial With regard to administrative trial procedure law, the possibility was provided for
the renewal of trial in light of ECtHR decisions.
Seventh package of harmonisation (Law No. 4963)
National Security By an amendment to the Law on the National Security Council and the Secretariat-
Council General of the National Security Council, the constitutional amendment was
reflected in the said Law, and provisions were introduced concerning the structure
and operation of the Council and the Secretariat-General.
Associations It was provided that legal persons may also establish associations.
The conditions for the establishment of an association were eased.
Freedom of The criteria for postponing an assembly were made more precise and the periods of
assembly and postponement reduced.
demonstration
Learning of It was provided that private courses may be opened for the learning of different
different languages languages and dialects traditionally used by Turkish citizens in their daily lives.
and dialects
Torture It was provided that investigations and prosecutions against those who have
committed the offence of torture should be conducted with priority and urgency and
that legal actions on cases of torture should not be adjourned for more than thirty
days unless necessary and should continue during the judicial holiday.
Budgetary control By an article added to the Law on the Court of Public Accounts, the authority of the
GNAT to control the budget was strengthened and the possibility was provided for
the inspection of State property held by the Armed Forces.
Rights of the child The upper age limit for trial at the Juvenile Courts was raised from 15 to 18.
Eighth package of harmonisation (Latest constitutional amendment)
Gender equality The provision was introduced that women and men have equal rights and that the
State has the duty to put such equality into practice.
Death penalty All references to the death penalty were removed from the Constitution.
The provision that no death penalty can be imposed except in war and in cases
where there is an imminent threat of war and except for crimes of terrorism was
abolished.
 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Freedom of the It was provided that printing houses, their annexes, and printing equipment, cannot
press be seized on grounds that they have been instruments of crime.
International It was provided that in the event of a dispute arising from the existence of differing
treaties provisions in an international treaty concerning fundamental rights and freedoms
and in a domestic law, the provisions of the international treaty should prevail.
Higher Education The member elected by the General Staff was removed from the membership of the
Council Higher Education Council.
State Security The State Security Courts were abolished.
Courts
Court of Public The possibility was provided for the Court of Public Accounts to audit State
Accounts property held by the Armed Forces.
Ninth package of harmonisation (Law No. 5218)
Death penalty In line with the amendment to the Constitution, the death penalties under certain
laws were abolished and turned into heavy imprisonment for life.
Military The Secretary-General of the NSC was removed from the Supreme Board of
representatives on Communications.
various bodies The provision for the General Staff to elect a member to the Higher Education
Council was abolished.
The provision for a member to be elected to the High Board for Radio and
Television from among candidates nominated by the Secretariat-General of the
National Security Council was abolished.
The provision for the NSC to elect a member to the Board for the Protection of
Minors from Obscene Publications was abolished.

The efforts made by Turkey to fulfil the Copenhagen political criteria have ensured
that the critical threshold on the road to democratisation has been passed and that the
democracy culture has been more firmly established. Indeed, the reforms carried out by
Turkey in the recent period have found a positive response both in the European Union and in
the Council of Europe.

At the Brussels Council of the European Union that was held on 17-18 June 2004, it
was stated that the progress so far achieved by Turkey in the process of reforms, including the
wide-ranging constitutional amendments adopted in May, were to be welcomed and that the
efforts of the Turkish Government in this direction deserved support.

On 22 June 2004, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe decided to lift
the process of scrutiny on Turkey. It was stated that this decision by the Parliamentary
Assembly was influenced by the reforms implemented by Turkey in the last two years. In this
context, emphasis was placed especially on the constitutional amendments of 2001 and 2004,
the abolition of the death penalty, the government’s policy of “zero tolerance” against torture,
the abolition of many restrictions concerning freedoms of expression, association, and religion
and conscience, the abolition of State Security Courts, and the progress achieved in the area of
recognition of cultural rights. The adoption of this decision is regarded by the circles
concerned as confirming that Turkey fulfils the Copenhagen political criteria. In addition,
Turkey’s progress in carrying out the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights was
welcomed by the Parliamentary Assembly.

2. Turkey’s Weight in the EU Decision-Making Mechanisms

The Council of the EU and the European Parliament are the main institutions in the
decision-making process of the European Union towards passing legislation. The Council
may pass legislation by acting on its own or together with the European Parliament. The
Parliament, which initially had only a consultative role, has had its influence in the decision-

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

making process gradually increase over the years and has come to share the power to adopt
legislation with the Council in many fields.

It can be said that the Council, made up of the ministers of the member states'
governments, is currently the most influential decision-making body. Initially, the number of
areas subject to unanimity in the Council was greater. Over time, however, this procedure has
given way to the procedure of qualified majority voting in many areas. In the latter procedure,
the member states have a certain number of votes weighted by their populations.

The fact that the Council is made up of the ministers of the member states and that the
procedure of unanimity still applies in certain important areas is a situation in favour of the
smaller member states. Moreover, as can be seen in Table 2.1 below, the weights of the
smaller countries in the distribution of votes are greater than their weights in the distribution
of population. For example, Germany as a country that has 18.2 percent of the EU population
may represent only 9 percent of the votes. In contrast, Luxembourg with a population of 0.1
percent has 1.2 percent of the votes.

Representation in the European Parliament, which adopts its decisions as a rule with a
majority of votes, is determined on the basis of the populations of the member states.
However, a system of grouping by political party rather than by country exists in the
Parliament.

If Turkey became a member, it would be one of the five largest countries in the EU, be
represented in the Parliament strongly, and have a weighted vote in the Council at the same
level as Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom . However, it must be borne in mind
that a majority of about three fourths of the member states is required for a decision to be
adopted by the procedure of qualified majority voting, which has now become the general
procedure. For such a majority to obtain, at least 232 of the 321 votes in total must be in
favour and the combined population of the countries voting in favour must be no less than 62
percent of the total EU population. On the other hand, for Turkey with a large population to
have a greater weight in the decision-making process than the countries with a smaller
population would be a natural consequence and a requirement of justice in representation.

Considering Table 2.1, it is estimated that Turkey would have a weighted vote of 28 or
29 in the Council and about 80 representatives in the European Parliament.

In conclusion, based on the current populations, Turkey as a country with 13.6 percent
of the total EU population would have a representative power of about 11 percent in the
European Parliament and about 9 percent in the Council.

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Table 2.1: Weights of the Member States in the Decision-Making Process (2003)
Council Parliament
MEMBER STATES
Population(million) Percentage Votes Percentage Seats Percentage
Germany 82.53 18.2 29 9.0 99 13.5
France 59.63 13.1 29 9.0 78 10.7
United Kingdom 59.32 13.1 29 9.0 78 10.7
Italy 57.32 12.6 29 9.0 78 10.7
Spain 41.55 9.1 27 8.4 54 7.4
Poland 38.21 8.4 27 8.4 54 7.4
Netherlands 16.19 3.6 13 4.0 27 3.7
Greece 11.01 2.4 12 3.7 24 3.3
Portugal 10.40 2.3 12 3.7 24 3.3
Belgium 10.35 2.3 12 3.7 24 3.3
Czech Republic 10.20 2.2 12 3.7 24 3.3
Hungary 10.14 2.2 12 3.7 24 3.3
Sweden 8.94 2.0 10 3.1 19 2.6
Austria 8.06 1.8 10 3.1 18 2.4
Denmark 5.38 1.2 7 2.2 14 1.9
Slovakia 5.37 1.2 7 2.2 14 1.9
Finland 5.20 1.1 7 2.2 14 1.9
Ireland 3.96 0.9 7 2.2 13 1.8
Lithuania 3.46 0.8 7 2.2 13 1.8
Latvia 2.33 0.5 4 1.2 9 1.2
Slovenia 1.99 0.4 4 1.2 7 1.0
Estonia 1.35 0.3 4 1.2 6 0.8
GASC 0.71 0.2 4 1.2 6 0.8
Luxembourg 0.44 0.1 4 1.2 6 0.8
Malta 0.39 0.1 3 0.9 5 0.7
TOTAL 454.43 321 732
Source: The Accession Treaty of 16 April 2003 and the EUROSTAT.

3. Contribution of Turkey’s Membership to Making the EU a Global Power

Since the beginning, the EU has been a model of peace, welfare, freedom and
solidarity in its region and has made differences stop being a source of conflict and placed
them in a framework that generates mutual benefits. Today, there is an increasing need to
carry this model to the global level. Through its members, the EU is in a position where it can
reach out to the rest of the world and contribute to the model of a global order that could be
useful for the entire humanity.

The fact that Turkey, which is a melting pot of civilisations, has firmly locked itself
into its goal of EU membership at this stage of modernisation is an important gain for the
entire world. With Turkey’s membership, the EU as a project of civilisation under
construction will review its perspective of global relations, including especially the Turkic
and Islamic world, and as a result an EU vision based on understanding, dialogue and
cooperation, rather than conflict, lack of communication, and denial, will be created in the
healthiest way with Turkey’s contributions.

Turkey’s goal is to join the developing cooperation and integration network of the
changing EU in politics, defence and security and in the economic, social and cultural fields.
This goal will also contribute to reducing the current tension between the West and the
Islamic world. In this context, the experience that Turkey as a democratic and secular country
has gained from the past to the present day is an important element.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Ensuring security, stability and welfare in Europe depends on an enlargement of the

democratic geography. Therefore, the new European architecture must help peace, stability
and common prosperity take root in the area that extends from the Balkans to the Caucasus,
from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, and must be based on modern and universal values.
In this context, Turkey has a strategic position that will enable it to play a leading and
determining role. Located at the crossroads of a wide region extending from the Balkans to
the Caucasus and Central Asia, from the Black Sea and Mediterranean basins to the Middle
East, Turkey is an indispensable element of stability in political, economic and cultural terms.

Turkey’s deep-rooted historical, cultural and social connections with and geographical
proximity to the Middle East result in its being directly affected by every positive or negative
development in the region and this requires it to concern itself closely with problems in the
Middle East. Acting as a gate in relations of Middle Eastern countries with Europe, Turkey is
prepared for the maintenance of the existing cooperation and for the further development of it
in every area so as to contribute to the establishment of peace and stability in the Middle East.

The fact that the Republics of Central Asia have gained their independence has added
a new dimension to Turkish foreign policy. After gaining their independence, they found the
opportunity to open up to the outside world through Turkey, which has been in a sense a
window for those countries and become an important partner for them in the process of their
integration with the world. In this context, Turkey has helped them accede to international
organisations such as the United Nations (UN), the Organisation for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) and the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) and join NATO’s
Partnership for Peace (PFP) programme and has given them assistance in many other areas.
Over 1,000 Turkish companies of different sizes are operating in the region. The volume of
direct investments and construction services of these companies in the region reached to a
considerable size.

Together with the rapid increase of China’s share in the world economy and with the
introduction of the rich sources of energy in Central Asian countries, the fact that Eurasia is
destined to become one of the central regions of the world economy raises certain
opportunities for the EU. In fact, the agreements of cooperation made by the EU with
countries of the region, and the projects it has jointly financed, show the importance attached
by the EU to relations with the countries of Central Asia. The current state of Turkey’s
relations with Eurasia and the potential they hold are such as would provide important
contributions also for the EU.

The Caucasus, a transit region between East and West and between North and South,
is located at a point of intersection of the energy and transport corridors formed in Eurasia in
the post-Cold War global order. With this strategic position, the region has an increasing
importance for the establishment of stability and welfare throughout Eurasia. The Caucasus is
a natural gate opening out to Central Asia for Turkey, which also has political, economic,
social and cultural ties with the peoples in this region. The scope of the close neighbourhood
policy being developed by the EU includes the countries of the Caucasus among others. The
close relations developed by Turkey with these countries thanks to its position and its cultural
and historical experience will contribute to strengthening the close neighbourhood policy of
the EU.

Having a strong democracy among the countries of the East Mediterranean, Turkey
has a critical role to play in the region, where many uncertainties prevail. After the Cold War,

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

the importance of the Mediterranean region for Europe’s security has increased even further.
Being able to put an end to conflicts between countries in this region requires the EU to take
initiative and to act fairly as between these countries. Europe’s security would be further
strengthened by an atmosphere of peace to be achieved in the Mediterranean through the
settlement of problems in the East Mediterranean. Turkey’s accession to the EU, following
Greece and the Greek Cypriot Section, would contribute to making the East Mediterranean a
sea of peace and security.

Considering international interdependence, which has become stronger together with

globalisation, and rising international threats such as terrorism, poverty and climate change, it
is a necessity to take steps towards sharing responsibility in the international area. To achieve
the ideals of sustainable development, security, peace and equality, the European Union must
assume an effective role in these issues where the existing global order proves insufficient.
Having grown further with the latest enlargement, the European Union will have the
opportunity to develop its relations beyond its new borders by spreading stability, welfare and
security. The EU, which, following Turkey’s accession, will become a neighbour of countries
such as Iraq and Iran which are at the heart of the Middle East, in addition to countries such as
Russia, the Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon,
Palestine, Israel, Jordan, and Syria, of which it is already a neighbour, will find the
opportunity to play a more effective and even leading role in world politics.

It does not seem possible for the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU to be
sufficiently developed without Turkey, which has an effective military force. With Turkey’s
accession, the EU would find the opportunity to transform itself into a more effective global
power also in this area. Turkey, which has been a reliable and active member of NATO since
the early years of its establishment, could help the EU make tangible contributions to world
peace and security.

Turkey has also a strategic position in the field of energy. Turkey's position as a transit
country in terms of reaching the countries having rich oil and natural gas resources will
facilitate EU countries' utilisation of these resources.

In conclusion, Turkey’s membership would enable the EU to play a more powerful

and effective role in world politics. Turkey’s membership of NATO, its strategic partnership
with the USA, its cooperation with the countries of the Balkans and the Caucasus, and its ties
with the Islamic world, are elements that would contribute to the achievement by the EU of its
goal of becoming a global power. With all these relations and this capacity, Turkey would
serve the deepening and strengthening of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy.
Furthermore, Turkey as an EU member would rise to a more stable position in the area of
security as in other areas and be freed to a major extent from the uncertainties caused by the
post-Cold War environment. In a “Win-Win” relationship, both Turkey and the EU would
enhance their security and influence.

4. Contribution of Turkey’s Membership to the EU Capacity to Fight Terrorism

Terrorism is a phenomenon which aims to achieve different objectives through similar

destructive methods and which threatens world nations without discrimination. In this period
when we have entered into the 21st century, terrorism has reached a destructive potential

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

never seen before in any period of history in terms of both technological possibilities and the
area it targets, and has gained an international and transboundary dimension.

The terrorist attacks that took place in the USA on 11 September 2001 showed what a
serious threat terrorism is for humanity. The similar terrorist actions carried out in Turkey and
Spain made it clear that no country is immune from terrorism. Even if actions of violence are
undertaken within the boundaries of a certain nation-state, it is now agreed that every terrorist
organisation depends on elements outside the boundaries of the state in which actions are
staged, in matters such as recruiting members, obtaining logistic support, training its
members, financing terrorist actions, and finding shelter. Therefore, the necessity for the
international community to act in solidarity and together in the fight against terrorism has
arisen once more.

For the fight against terrorism to be successful, it needs to be defined correctly.

Terrorism cannot be associated with a certain religion, ethnic identity, race, colour, culture or
geographical area. Therefore, fighting against terrorism has become a common concern for
the entire world.

Turkey’s accumulation of knowledge and experience in the area of fighting against

terrorism shows the need for states to cooperate at the national, regional and international
levels to prevent and eradicate terrorism. Turkey uses every opportunity to state that it is open
for all types of cooperation in this matter and is ready to share the knowledge and experience
it has gained in its long-standing fight against terrorism.

In the present day, when important developments in the area of fighting against
terrorism are taking place, the view of terrorism is changing and a joint fight against terrorism
has been launched across the world, it has been realised that it is a grave mistake to connect
terrorism to Islam or any other religion. Today, when the entire world is faced with a threat of
terrorism on a global scale, Turkey is aware of the responsibilities that fall to it. As stated in
European Economic and Social Committee's Opinion of 1 July 2004 "Turkey's accession to
the EU would demonstrate the high level the EU has achieved in terms of its pluralism, of its
ability to manage dialogue between cultures and religions, and of its role in promoting peace
and justice in the world."

Turkey’s accession to the EU would also provide a contribution to European

integration with respect to terrorism, which now threatens mankind as a whole, and would
demonstrate the resolution of the EU to combat terrorism. In an environment where, on the
one hand, terrorism is being effectively combated and, on the other, efforts are being made for
new moves forward in democratisation and economic development, the EU experience and
the synergy to be created by Turkey would contribute to peace and stability throughout the
world, starting in Europe and its vicinity.

5. Contribution of Turkey’s EU Membership to the Settlement of the Cyprus Question

Efforts to reach a comprehensive solution towards the reunification of the island were
resumed in 1999 under a good offices mission of the UN Secretary-General. In this
framework, the aim was for the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot sides to reach a
comprehensive solution and for a new order to be created on Cyprus, and it was considered
that a solution to be reached by 1 May 2004 would be of benefit to all parties concerned and

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

to international peace and security. This approach was envisaged as the only way for Cyprus
to join the EU on 1 May 2004 as a united whole.

The plan communicated to the parties during talks held in Switzerland on 31 March
2004, to be voted in separate and simultaneous referenda, was finalised by the UN Secretary-
General in close consultation with the two sides on Cyprus and with Greece and Turkey.

The referenda were held on Cyprus on 24 April and a great majority of the Turkish
Cypriots voted in favour of the solution plan of the UN Secretary-General which would allow
Cyprus to join the EU on 1 May 2004 as a united whole.

However, the Greek Cypriots rejected the plan with a majority of 75 percent, resulting
in the failure of efforts for a united Cyprus to join the EU. In the end, the comprehensive
solution plan of the UN Secretary-General became null and void in accordance with the
relevant provisions of the plan.

With the accession of the Greek side to the EU on 1 May 2004, the EU became party
to an international problem despite its own criteria, which require that a country should settle
its border disputes before it can join the EU. Following the referenda, the Turkish side, which
had clearly expressed its desire for reunification and thus for integration with the EU,
remained outside the EU while the Greek Section became an EU member.

Turkey, which has been in favour of a solution of the Cyprus question ever since the
beginning, has in this framework always stated that it seeks a lasting and equitable peace on
Cyprus, and all its actions have developed in conformity with that statement. In this process,
Turkey has adopted an approach from which both sides would benefit in the end.

The Turkish Government regards the establishment of a lasting and equitable peace on
Cyprus as one of its priority goals. On this issue, efforts have been made to develop joint
strategies towards a solution in close cooperation and solidarity both with the organisations
concerned and with the TRNC authorities. Turkey not only produced an occasion for the
resumption of talks on Cyprus but also showed its goodwill through the support it gave to the
UN Secretary-General during the whole of the process.

In addition, the dialogue and cooperation that has been steadily developing since 1999
between the Turkish and Greek governments would further increase within the EU and,
spreading to all areas, enable new steps to be taken. This would also contribute to the
settlement of the Cyprus question.

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C- ECONOMIC ISSUES

1. Fulfilment of the Economic Criteria

Turkey has taken major steps towards fulfilling the Copenhagen economic criteria,
which are defined as the existence of a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope
with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. In this context, legislative
measures have been implemented in many areas of the economy such as establishing an
Economic and Social Council, giving the Central Bank a more independent status and
reforming the banking, electricity and natural gas markets in view of international norms, and
considerable progress has been made with reforms to eliminate the structural distortions in the
economy.

The developments achieved towards fulfilment of the Copenhagen economic criteria

are outlined below.

a) The existence of a functioning market economy

The existence of a functioning market economy requires the liberalisation of prices as

well as trade. In addition, the existence of a developed financial sector and the absence of
major barriers to market entry and exit are elements that support the existence of a functioning
market economy.

- Liberalisation of foreign trade: As a result of the customs union established between

Turkey and the EC in 1996, the customs duties and charges having equivalent effects
on industrial goods between Turkey and the EU were abolished and the Common
Customs Tariff (CCT) of the Community was adopted towards third countries. Turkey
started to implement a trade policy compatible with the rules adopted in the
framework of the WTO and the Common Trade Policy of the EU.

- Liberalisation of prices: Price distortions in the market are decreasing in the

framework of reducing the weight of the public sector in the economy and the
principle of state enterprises determining their prices according to market conditions
rather than public intervention. The system of agricultural support prices, which led to
major distortions in the market structure, has been replaced by the system of direct
income support. Tobacco and sugar prices are now determined by supply and demand
in the market rather than by public organisations making crop purchases. Electricity,
telephone and natural gas prices are regulated by independent agencies.

- Privatisation: As of 2003, the government has totally withdrawn from such areas as
animal fodder, milk products, airport ground services, petroleum distribution and the
cement industry, while it has transferred to the private sector its determining position
in the areas of textiles, tourism, meat and fish products and maritime transport. In
addition, work has been started towards the privatisation of state-owned banks and
important steps have been taken on the road to reducing the influence of the
government in the financial sector. Concerning the electricity sector, assessments have
been made of the generators and distributors in the sector and 3 generating companies
have been included in the portfolio of privatisation.

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Despite the government’s determination in the area of privatisation, the performance

in this respect has been below the targets. During the period of 1999-2004, a total
revenue of 4.3 billion dollars was obtained from privatisation.

- Banking sector: Under the ongoing Programme for the Restructuring of the Banking
Sector, efforts are being made to restructure the banking sector and provide it with a
healthier structure. Work to privatise the state-owned banks is underway. For this
purpose, strategies are being developed to improve the operational efficiency of the
state-owned banks and to achieve a competitive environment in the sector. With the
structural reforms underway, major progress has been made to strengthen the banking
sector to endow it with a healthy structure able to provide resources to the real sector.

- Market entry and exit: The Turkish economy has a high level of market entry and exit.
In 2003, the number of newly established companies grew by 19 percent in
comparison with 2002 and reached 65,335. In the same year, 18,665 companies were
closed down. The high numbers of market entries and exits indicate a free regime of
market entry and exit.

b) The capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union

The capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union
requires the existence of a stable macroeconomic structure. In addition, a more advanced level
of economic integration with the EU prior to accession is regarded as important for the
fulfilment of the obligations arising from membership.

- Achieving macroeconomic stability: In the framework of the ongoing stabilisation

programme backed by the IMF, important steps have been taken towards achieving
economic stability, increasing market confidence and creating a competitive and
liberal macroeconomic framework. As a result of the determined implementation of
the programme, inflation, interest rates and monetary stock have fallen significantly
and a fast growth period has started. In addition, public financial management has
been improved and the financial sector restructured. The macroeconomic performance
observed in Turkey for the last two years is the best indicator of these developments.
The structural reforms carried out and the improvement in the economy have helped to
reduce the uncertainties in the markets and to increase confidence in the domestic and
foreign markets and thus to stabilise the economy.

Under the fiscal and monetary discipline provided by the determined implementation
of the economic programme, the fight against inflation has been considerably
successful with annual inflation falling below the target levels in 2002 and 2003.The
CPI fell from 68.5 percent in 2001 to 18,4 percent at the end of 2003. As of September
2004, the CPI increased by 9 percent annually. While inflation rates are decreasing,
high levels of growth have been achieved. GDP increased 7.9 percent in 2002 and 5.8
percent in 2003. It is expected to achieve a high level of growth, around 10 percent,
much above the 5 percent target level also in 2004. In this process, stable macro-
economic environment helped the interest rate to decrease. Treasury bills and
government bonds annual average weighted interest rate dropped from around 73.8
percent in 2001 to 28.4 percent at the end of 2003. The aforementioned interest rate
was 26.1 percent as of September 2004. The environment of stability in the financial

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

markets led to the tendency of debt stock to GDP ratio to fall by relieving the concerns
in the markets about the sustainability of the debt. Total debt ratio fell from 90 percent
at the end of 2001 to 69.9 at the end of 2003.

- Improving the investment environment: Law No. 4875 on Foreign Direct Investments,
which lays down principles concerning the promotion of foreign direct investments,
the protection of the rights of foreign investors, compliance with international
standards in the definitions of investment and investor, the replacement of the permit
and approval system by the information system in carrying out foreign direct
investments, was adopted in June 2003.

In addition, Law No. 4884 has entered into force ensuring the simplification of the
company establishment process, which previously involved a total of 19 stages and
took more than two months, by reducing it to 3 stages and one day with a standard
form of company establishment to be filled out.

The final stage has been reached in the work for the creation of an Investment
Promotion Agency to conduct activities towards improving the image of Turkey as an
investment environment, increasing local and foreign investments and extending the
investments that exist.

- Improving the business environment: In the framework of the reform to improve the
business environment, The Turkish Accounting Standards Board has been established
with the aim of improving corporate governance and supporting the banking reform.
Work is underway on legislation concerning the activities of the Board.

The Execution and Bankruptcy Law has been amended to eliminate problems arising
from the previous version of this Law and to accelerate execution procedures.

As of 2004, the system of inflation accounting has been introduced to ensure justice in
taxation and to prevent tax evasion and unregistered economic activity.

- Small and Medium Size Enterprises: Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) play
a key role in achieving stability in the Turkish economy. They account for 99.8
percent of all firms in Turkey, providing about 77 percent of total employment, and
creating about 38 percent of total value-added.

Since their small size provides these enterprises, which are mostly family companies,
flexibility to adapt themselves to the changing business environment, they play a
rather important role in reducing the impact of shocks in the Turkish economy. The
fact that no significant disturbances occurred in the economy during the establishment
of the customs union is due to this flexible structure of SMEs.

- Regulatory reforms and agencies: To enable the government to carry out its regulatory
and supervisory functions without interfering in the operation of the markets,
independent regulatory agencies have been established for such areas as banking,
energy, telecommunications, tobacco and sugar. In creating these agencies, the aim
has been to conduct the activities of surveillance and regulation, to prevent
monopolies in the markets, to prevent restriction of or damage to competition, and not
to allow discrimination between service providers in the market.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

- Public Management Reform: The Law on Public Financial Management and Control
which was adopted in December 2003 is intended to increase transparency and
accountability in public financial management, to improve the efficiency of the ex ante
control function, to harmonise the ex post internal audit and external audit systems
with EU standards, and to extend the initiative of the spending agencies with regard to
ex ante control and ex post internal audit.

As of 2004, the analytical budgetary code system has been introduced in all agencies
subject to the consolidated budget. For the year 2006, the aim is to implement the new
budgetary code structure in all agencies and organisations within the definition of the
General Government. This system aims for the financial statistics of the government to
be kept more regularly, to be reliable, and to be made suitable for analysis and
international comparisons, and thus for financial transparency and accountability to be
increased.

A public administration reform has been adopted with the aim of greater
democratisation and efficiency in the public administration. The goal of this reform is
to create the necessary legal and institutional framework to achieve effectiveness,
transparency and participation in public services. In particular, the law that clarifies
the distribution of functions, power and resources between the central and local
governments, and three basic laws concerning local administrations (the Law on
Metropolitan Municipalities, the Law on Municipalities, and the Law on the Special
Provincial Administration) have been adopted by the Parliament.

The Law on the Right to Information, which will improve the transparency of the
government and strengthen accountability to the public, has also been adopted and put
into force.

- A board has been established to set and monitor ethical standards in the government.

In addition, work is underway to restructure all institutions concerned in accordance

with the basic principles of this reform which has been launched. The completion of
this process is closely related with the competitive strength of the economy as well as
the capacity of the public administrations to adopt and implement the various areas of
the acquis.

- Trade with the EU: Following the customs union introduced in 1996, trade relations
between Turkey and the EU have further strengthened. Turkey’s imports from the EU
countries account for about 45 percent of its overall imports, while exports to the EU
countries account for about 50 percent of the total Turkish exports. These figures show
that trade integration between Turkey and the EU has been achieved to a major extent.

2. Diminishing The Development Gap Between Turkey and the Member States with the
Help of Turkey’s Increased Performance in the Process of Accession

Turkey’s average annual rates of growth remained well below potential due to
political and economic instability in the past. However, the political stability and the correct

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

economic policies in recent years have contributed positively to growth and the Turkish
economy has grown faster during the last few years in comparison with the EU countries.

The opening of negotiations with the EU in 2005 and the eventual accession to the EU
will further strengthen political and economic stability in Turkey. In a Turkey where stability
is firmly achieved, investments will increase, foreign capital inflows will accelerate,
employment opportunities and the rate of growth will increase, and the development gap
between Turkey and other EU member states will diminish.

In this study, to forecast the effects of EU membership on the Turkish economy, two
scenarios have been developed for projections. In both scenarios, the year 2014, which marks
the beginning of the next budget period of the EU, is assumed to be a critical year.

In the base scenario, developed with the assumption that the effects of EU
membership on the Turkish economy would be limited, it is forecast that Turkey’s GDP
would be at the level of 2.4 percent of the total GDP of the EU-25 as of 2004. According to
this scenario, as a result of the positive economic effects of EU membership, Turkey’s GDP
would rise to the level of 4 percent of the EU-25 GDP in 2014. With an average annual
growth of 6.2 percent in the Turkish economy over the period of 2004 to 2020, GDP would
increase to the level of 5.4 percent of the EU-25 GDP and GDP, which is 241 billion euros in
current prices in 2004, would reach around 1,139 billion euros in 2020.

Under the second scenario, developed with the assumption that the effects of EU
membership on the Turkish economy would be considerable, Turkey’s GDP would be at the
level of 4.2 percent and 6 percent of the EU-25 GDP in 2014 and 2020, respectively. It is
expected that the economy would grow by an average of 6.8 percent a year over the period of
2004 to 2020 and that Turkey’s GDP, which stands at 241 billion euros in current prices in
2004, would reach approximately 1,251 billion euros by 2020.

Graph 2.1: GDP (at current prices, in millions of euros)

1.400.000
1.200.000
1.000.000
800.000
Base Scenario
600.000 High Scenario
400.000
200.000
0
2004 2007 2014 2020

Source: SPO

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 2.1: GDP Growth Rate (percent)

TURKEY
EU-25
Base Scenario High Scenario
2004 9.6 9.6 2.6
2007 5.1 6.0 3.0
2014 6.4 7.0 3.0
2020 6.4 6.8 3.0

2004-2020 6.2 6.8 3.0

Source: SPO

At present, national income per capita in Turkey is at the level of 15.1 percent of the
EU-25 average in current prices. Under the base scenario, it is expected that national income
per capita in Turkey would rise to 22.9 percent and 29.7 percent of the EU-25 average in 2014
and 2020, respectively. According to the high scenario, on the other hand, it would reach 24.5
percent and 32.6 percent of the EU-25 average in 2014 and 2020, respectively. It is expected
that these figures would be much higher according to purchasing power parity. In fact, it is
considered that as of 2004 this ratio would be around 30 percent according to purchasing
power parity.

Graph 2.3: National Income per Capita EU-25=100

2020

2014
High Scenario
Base Scenario
2007

2004

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0

Source: SPO

In an environment where economic stability is firmly established together with the EU

membership, inflows of foreign capital will accelerate, local investments will increase and,

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

together with the positive impact of membership upon growth, employment will increase.
Under these assumptions, the unemployment rate, which is estimated to be 10.5 percent in
2004, is expected to drop to 9.5 percent in 2014 and 8.6 percent in 2020 according to the base
scenario. Under the high scenario, the unemployment rate would fall to 7.3 percent and 5.4
percent in 2014 and 2020, respectively.

Graph 2.3: Unemployment Rate (percent)

12,0

10,0

8,0
TURKEY Base Scenario
6,0 TURKEY High Scenario
EU-15
4,0

2,0

0,0
2004 2014 2020

Source: SPO

3. Turkey’s Economic Integration with the EU

Relations between Turkey and the EU develop in the framework of the association
regime based on the Ankara Agreement, which was signed with the European Community
(EC) on 12 September 1963 and which entered into force on 1 December 1964.

Ankara Agreement envisages that the development of the association established

between Turkey and the EC in the direction of Turkey’s full membership, which is the final
goal of that association, should take place through three periods: the preparatory period, the
transitional period and the final period. During the transitional period, relations between
Turkey and the EC were regulated by the Additional Protocol, which was signed on 23
November 1970 and entered into force on 1 January 1973, as well as by the Ankara
Agreement. In this period, it was envisaged that a customs union covering industrial products
should be gradually established between the two parties, that free movement of workers
should be mutually achieved, that a gradually extending preferential trade regime should be
implemented in agricultural products, that legislation and policies in the areas specified in the
Additional Protocol should be aligned between Turkey and the EC, and that the process of the
free movement of services should be started as far as permitted by conditions.

Starting in 1972, the EC abolished customs duties on imports of industrial products of

Turkish origin and introduced a quota regime for imports of textile products, while Turkey
started in 1973 to reduce gradually its customs duties on imports of industrial products from
the EC. In 1996, trade relations between Turkey and the EC were further deepened with the
customs union established by Association Council Decision 1/95.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

In the framework of the customs union, as a result of abolishing customs duties and
charges having equivalent effect on imports of industrial products from the EU and EFTA
countries and applying the common customs tariff of the Community to imports from third
countries, the rates of protection dropped from 5.3 percent in 1995 to 2.62 percent in 1996.
This decrease in the rates of protection, which are calculated on the basis of 1995 imports and
defined as the ratio of duties and funds effectively collected on imports to the total import,
shows that Turkey considerably liberalised its imports following the customs union. The rates
of protection against the EU and EFTA countries decreased from 5.47 percent in 1995 to 1.34
percent in 1996.

Following this decrease in the protection rates, Turkey’s imports increased rapidly in
1996 and its total imports grew by 22.2 percent and reached to 43.6 billion dollars. When the
country distribution of imports is considered, it is seen that Turkey’s imports from the EU
countries increased by 37.2 percent in 1996 and reached to 23.1 billion dollars (Table 3.1).

With the customs union, customs duties on consumption goods in particular were
reduced significantly, and in 1996 imports of consumption goods from the EU countries
increased by 100 percent. The share of imports of consumption goods in total imports rose
from 6.8 percent in 1995 to 9.8 percent in 1996 and 11 percent in 1997 (Table 3.3).

The customs union not only led to an increase of Turkey’s total imports but also
caused a shift of imports towards the Community. As a matter of fact, the share of EU
countries in Turkey’s total imports, which was around 47 percent before the customs union,
rose to above 50 percent after the customs union. In 2003, imports from the EU reached to
31,7 billion dollars, constituting 45,7 percent of the total imports.

Although the share of imports from the EU in our total imports increased considerably
in the initial years of the customs union, it is observed that in the subsequent period this ratio
dropped to the levels before the customs union.

In terms of exports, it is observed that the share of exports to the EU in our total
exports remained at around 50 percent following the customs union. One reason for this
situation is the fact that the European Community had already been applying zero customs
duties to imports of industrial products from Turkey. Therefore, the introduction of the
customs union did not give Turkey an additional advantage in terms of exports. Although the
Community terminated the quota regime towards Turkey in textiles and clothing, the general
stagnation prevailing in EU countries in that period and the fact that countries of the Far East
had gained competitiveness in those sectors were the two most important factors that
prevented Turkey from increasing its exports of such products to the Community.

Total trade volume, which was 57 billion dollars in 1995, increased to 75 billion
dollars in 1997 and to 116 billion dollars in 2003. The share of trade volume between Turkey
and the EU in the total trade volume increased from 47 percent in 1994 to above 50 percent
following customs union. In 2003, trade volume with the EU reached to 56 billion dollars.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Graph 3.1: The Share of The Trade With the EU in the Total Trade of Turkey (percent)

60
The Share of
Import From the
EU
40

20
The Share of
Export to The EU

0
92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20
The deepening of the customs union and progress to be achieved in other areas in the
coming years will naturally have a positive effect on trade between Turkey and the EU. Even
if it is assumed that the existing ratios will not change, Turkey, which is rapidly growing in
parallel to relations with the EU, will become an important trade partner for the EU in terms
of absolute value. It is predicted that Turkey, which, with a GDP of about 212 billion euros in
2003, made imports from the EU in the amount of 27.8 billion euros in that year, would be
able to make imports of about 149.2 billion euros from EU member states in 2020 with a GDP
of 1.138 trillion euros, assuming that the share of imports from the EU in Turkey’s GDP
would remain unchanged.
Graph 3.2: Turkey’s Imports from EU Countries (in billions of euros)

160,0
140,0
120,0
100,0
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
0,0
2003 2004 2007 2014 2020

Source: SPO

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 3.1: Turkey’s Foreign Trade (in millions of dollars )

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Total Import 22,870 29,428 23,270 35,709 43,627 48,559 45,935 40,671 54,503 41,399 51,553 69,340
Total Export 14,714 15,375 18,106 21,637 23,225 26,261 26,974 26,588 27,775 31,334 36,059 47,252
Total Trade
37,584 44,803 41,376 57,346 66,852 74,820 72,909 67,259 82,278 72,733 87,612 116,592
Total Trade
8,156 14,053 5,164 14,072 20,402 22,298 18,961 14,083 26,728 10,065 15,494 22,088
Deficit

Share of Import
from the EU in 44 47 47 47 53 51 52 53 49 44 45 46
Total Import
Share of Exports
to the EU in 52 49 48 51 50 47 50 54 52 51 51 52
Total Export
Source : SPO, SIS

Table 3.2 Turkey-EU Foreign Trade (in billions of dollars)

2004*
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003
Exports 6.9 7.0 7.6 7.6 8.6 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.5 14.3 14.3 16.1 18.5 24.5 20.2

Imports 9.3 9.2 10.0 13.9 10.9 16.9 23.1 24.9 24.1 21.4 26.6 18.3 23.3 31.7 27.6

Total trade
16.2 16.2 17.6 21.5 19.5 27.9 34.6 37.1 37.6 35.7 40.9 34.4 41.8 56.2 47.8
Source: SPO
* January-August

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 3.3: Breakdown of Imports by Category of Goods (in billions of dollars)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Capital goods 5,220 8,120 10,208 11,052 10,661 8,729 11,342 6,964 8,492 11,326
% of total 22 23 23 23 23 21 21 17 16 16
Intermediate goods 16,565 25,078 28,737 31,872 29,561 26,568 35,710 29,971 37,442 50,012
% of total 71 70 66 66 64 65 66 72 73 72
Consumption goods 1,381 2,417 4,266 5,335 5,328 5,063 7,220 4,084 5,008 7,536
% of total 6 7 10 11 12 12 13 10 10 11
Others 103 95 416 301 372 327 231 380 610 466
% of total 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
Total 23,270 35,709 43,627 48,559 45,921 40,687 54,503 41,399 51,553 69,340
Source: SPO, SIS

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Another indicator of the economic integration between Turkey and the EU is foreign
direct investment of EU origin in Turkey. 4124 of 8884 foreign firms operating in Turkey as
of September 2004 are EU firms.

Table 3.4: Breakdown by Country of the Foreign Capital Organisations of EU-15 Origin
Operating in Turkey
Number of Firms
Germany 1482
Austria 34
Belgium 143
Denmark 75
Finland 25
France 398
Netherlands 705
Britain 604
Ireland 48
Spain 92
Sweden 61
Italy 346
Luxemburg 76
Portugal 8
EU Total 4124
Grand Total 8884
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

The large trade volume between Turkey and the EU shows that trade integration
between the parties has been considerably achieved. The EU is the largest trade partner for
Turkey. In addition, the large share of firms of EU origin investing in Turkey in total foreign
capital is an indication of the depth of economic integration between our country and the EU.

4. Budgetary Implications of Turkey’s Membership for the EU

The budget of the EU is one of the most effective instruments used to achieve the
targets of Community policies. The EU budget, which consisted exclusively of transfers from
the member states until 1970, has rested on a system of own resources since that year.
Accordingly, the EU budget consists of:
• Traditional own resources, which are formed by revenues from sugar and isoglucose
production and by customs duty revenues obtained under the Common Customs
Tariff;
• 0.5 percent of the value-added tax revenues of the member states; and
• A certain percentage of the member states' GNP.

A production tax is collected from sugar-beet and sugar producers in the EU with the
aim of maintaining a balance between sugar production and consumption and ensuring the
contribution of the sector to the financing of sugar expenditures. The intervention system for
the sugar sector is currently undergoing reform, and it is predicted that in this context the tax
in question will come to an end in the next period.

In 2002, total sugar production in the EU was 17 million tons and the tax collected on
sugar production was approximately 865 million Euro, with the amount of tax per ton being

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

around 51 Euro. In this study, it is assumed that the amount of tax on sugar production will
not change. As far as customs duties are concerned, it is envisaged that the proportion of
customs duty revenues to GDP, which was 0.3 percent in 2003 for Turkey, will also not
change in the coming period.

Member states keep 25 percent of their revenues for traditional own resources in their
budgets in order to compensate for the cost of collecting these resources, and transfer the rest
to the EU budget.

In this framework, it is estimated that, if Turkey were a member of the EU, it would
transfer resources to the EU budget in the amount of about 612 million Euro for 2004, 1,493
million Euro in 2014, and 2,619 million Euro in 2020, in the context of traditional own
resources.

Table 4.1: Turkey’s Contribution of Traditional Own Resources to the EU Budget

2004 2014 2020
Sugar production (1,000 tons) 1,830 1,500 1,500
Amount of tax per ton (Euro) 51 51 51
Total sugar production tax (million
euros) (1) 93.3 76.5 76.5
GDP (Euro million) 241,017 638,425 1,138,681
Proportion of customs duties to GDP 0.003 0.003 0.003
Amount of customs duties (million
euros) (2) 723.1 1,915.3 3,416.0
Total (3)=(1+2) 816.4 1,991.8 3,492.5
25% to be deducted for costs (million
euros) (4) 204.1 497.9 873.1
Total contribution of own resources
(million euros) (5)=(3-4) 612.3 1,493.8 2,619.4
Source: SPO

Member states of the EU transfer 0.5 percent of their VAT revenues as a contribution
to the EU budget. In this study, it is assumed that the VAT contribution to be transferred to
the EU budget will not change in its proportion to GDP. In this framework, the VAT
contribution percentage for Turkey which is calculated to be 0.04 percent for 2003 is used
also for the years 2014 and 2020. With this assumption, it is estimated that, if Turkey was a
member of the EU, it would pay a VAT contribution to the EU budget in the amount of about
96.4 million Euro in 2004, 255.4 million Euro in 2014, and 455.5 million Euro in 2020.

The GNP contribution to the EU budget is related with the GNP size of the member
states. In the budgetary process, the GNP contributions are calculated in view of the
difference between the customs duty and VAT revenues and the expenditures of the budget.
The difference so calculated is financed through GNP contributions of the member states
which are determined taking into view GNP sizes of the countries. In this framework, the
coutries with higher GPD’s conribute more to the EU budget. In 2002, the contributions of the
EU member states to the EU budget were 0.5 percent of their GNP. With the assumption that
this percentage will not change, it may be said that, according to the base scenario, Turkey
would transfer resources as the GNP contribution to the EU budget in the amount of 1,205
million Euro in 2004, 3,192 million Euro in 2014, and 5,693 million Euro in 2020.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

In this framework, it is expected that Turkey’s total contribution to the EU budget

would be 4,941 million Euro in 2014 and 8,768 million Euro in 2020. It is predicted that
Turkey’s contribution to the EU budget would be limited in the initial years of membership
but increase with economic growth in the subsequent years.

Graph 4.1: Turkey’s Contribution to the EU Budget (at current prices, in millions of euros)

9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 2004
3000 2014
2000 2020
1000
0
Traditional VAT Income GDP TOTAL
Own
Resources

Source: SPO

The largest item of revenue in the EU budget is the GNP contribution by member
states. The item in question forms about half the EU budget. Table 4.2 gives projections of
GDP growth rates for Turkey and the EU-25. As will be seen from the Table, the GNP growth
rate of Turkey is above the average growth rate of the EU-25 over the years. As a result,
Turkey’s GNP contribution to the EU budget would increase more every year in comparison
with the other countries.

Table 4.2: GNP Growth Rates (percent)

2004 2007 2014 2020 2004-2020
9.6 5.1 6.4 6.4 6.2
Turkey

EU-25 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Source: SPO

Looking at the expenditure items of the EU budget, it is observed that the largest share
is taken by expenditures under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), although falling, and
these are followed by expenditures under the Cohesion Fund and Structural Funds.

The CAP is financed through the European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee
Fund (EAGGF). The Guarantee Section of this Fund finances expenditures such as direct
payments, intervention purchases, compensatory payments, storage assistance and export
refunds, in the framework of the common market organisations specified for 22 different
product groups. The Guidance Section of the Fund is used mainly in financing of rural
development activities. For this reason, the Guidance Section is counted among the Structural
Funds.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

The amount of support that would be received by Turkey, if a member, from the
Guarantee Section of the EAGGF has been calculated using the amount of agricultural
support per value of agricultural production, with the assumption that the current support
system of the CAP will not change. In addition, to simplify the calculation, no distinction has
been made between different types of expenditures under the Guarantee Section such as
export refunds, direct payments and storage assistance. In 2001, the average amount of
support per 1 euro of agricultural production in the EU was 0.146 euro. For the Mediterranean
countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece) which are similar to Turkey from the viewpoint
of agricultural production, this amount was 0.156 euro.

Therefore, when the EU average is taken to be the amount of agricultural support per
value of agricultural production, it is estimated that Turkey would receive support from the
Guarantee Section of the EAGGF in the amount of about 6.4 billion euros in 2014 and 7.4
billion Euros in 2020. Applying the amount calculated for the Mediterranean countries, it is
envisaged that Turkey would receive about 6.8 billion euros in 2014 and 7.8 billion euros in
2020 in agricultural support.

Graph 4.2:Estimated Support to be Received by Turkey from the EAGGF Guarantee Section
(in millions of euros)

8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
At EU average
4.000
At Mediterranean average
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
2004 2014 2020

Source: SPO

Project-based allocations are made from the Guidance Section of the EAGGF, and the
amount of support that may be obtained from this item depends mostly on the capacity of
countries to develop projects conforming to EU standards. Using the average of the resources
obtained under the Guidance Section by Spain, Italy and France, whose agricultural structures
and the problems and expectations of whose rural population are similar to those of Turkey, it
seems possible for Turkey to receive 1 billion euros yearly from the Guidance Section
following accession. It may be said that this figure envisaged for Turkey is quite reasonable
considering that Poland, one of the new members of the EU, will receive 847 million Euros a
year on average from the Guidance Section in the years 2004 to 2006.

The project topics for which support may be extended under the Guidance Section and
the amount of EU contributions would be determined in negotiations. During the latest
enlargement, the EU widened the scope of support for the new members under the Guidance
Section and raised the EU contribution from 50 percent to 80 percent for projects to be
prepared in this context.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

In conclusion, the transitional arrangements that might be requested by the EU in

negotiations and the capacity to use EU funds for agricultural production in Turkey would
directly affect the amount of agricultural support to be received by Turkey following
accession.

Under the item of Structural Expenditures in the EU budget, projects of EU member

states are supported through the Structural Funds and Cohesion Fund. The only way of
benefiting from these funds is to prepare projects directed towards the goals of the funds and
at a certain standard. The rate of benefiting from these funds is directly related with the
capacity of the countries to use EU funds. Taking account of the capacities of the new
member states to use EU funds, the Commission has determined the amount of funds that
each member state can use. For the 10 new members of the EU, the average capacity to use
EU funds in 2005 is about 0.69 percent of GDP. In this study, the amount of resources that
Turkey could receive from EU funds after accession is estimated on the basis of the fund
utilisation capacity ratios. The average capacity of the 10 new members to use EU funds
which has been determined for 2005 is taken to be the capacity of Turkey to use EU funds.

According to calculations made under the assumption that Turkey is a member state in
2014, it is estimated that resources of about 4.4 billion euros would be transferred from the
EU budget to Turkey in the framework of structural expenditures. In 2020, assuming that the
capacity to use the funds remains unchanged, Turkey would receive about 7.9 billion euros
from the funds.

Table 4.3: Relationship Between Turkey and the EU Budget -I (in millions of euros)
2014 2020

REVENUES
Traditional own resources 1,494 2,619
VAT revenues 255.4 455.5
GDP Contribution 3,192 5,693
Total (1) 4,941 8,768
EXPENDITURE

Agriculture 6,439 7,389

Structural Expenditures 4,405 7,857
Total (2) 10,844 15,246
NET BALANCE (2)-(1) 5,903 6,478
Source: SPO

In the framework of the assumptions set out above, it is expected that the net cost of
Turkey’s membership on the EU budget would be about 5.9 billion euros in 2014 and 6.5
billion euros in 2020.

It may well be possible for Turkey to use more resources from structural funds after
accession if the capacity to use EU funds is realized above the average of the capacities of the
new EU members. It is estimated that if Turkey’s capacity to use EU funds is at a level of 1
percent of its GDP, as seen in Table 4.4, Turkey would receive about 7.9 billion euros of net
resources from the EU budget in 2014 and about 10 billion euros in 2020.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 4.3: Relationship Between Turkey and the EU Budget -II (in millions of euros)
2014 2020

REVENUES
Traditional own resources 1,494 2,619
VAT revenues 255 456
GDP Contribution 3,192 5,693
Total (1) 4,941 8,768
EXPENDITURE

Agriculture 6,439 7,389

Structural Expenditures* 6,384 11,387
Total (2) 12,823 18,776
NET BALANCE (2)-(1) 7,882 10,008
*The values have been calculated under the assumption that Turkey’s capacity to use EU funds is at a level of 1
percent of its GDP.

5. The Enlargement of the EU Internal Market and the Competitive Advantage of EU

Firms in the Common Legal and Economic Environment

The customs union established between Turkey and the EU in 1996 and covering
industrial products and processed agricultural products led to an enlargement of the EU
internal market and an increase of competition. An important part of the trade and growth
effect that has arisen for the new member states following accession arose for Turkey
following the establishment of the customs union with the EU in 1996. While Turkey’s
exports to the EU did not change significantly after 1996 because the EU had unilaterally
abolished its customs duties on imports of industrial products from Turkey in 1972, there
occurred a considerable increase in Turkey’s imports.1 However, imports from the EU
stabilised at around 50 percent of total imports in the subsequent years.

The market growth effect to be created by free trade did not fully materialise because
of the economic crises that occurred. In addition, because Turkey was not an EU member and,
unlike the new member states, was unable to benefit from EU funds, the growth effect arising
from EU funds in those countries failed to arise in Turkey. Both effects form growth
potentials to be realised by Turkey’s accession to the EU.

Regarding the impact of Turkey’s membership on the growth of the EU economy, the
report of June 2004 by Kirsty Hughes “Turkey and the European Union: Just Another
Enlargement” states that in the event of Turkey’s accession to the EU in 2015 this would
bring about an increase of 0.1 to 0.3 percent in the growth rate of the EU-25 GNP. Assuming
that this remains true every year after accession, it is estimated that Turkey’s contribution to
the GDP of the EU-25 in 2014 would be 15.9 billion euros under the low scenario and 47.8
billion euros under the high scenario.

1
See Section 3: Turkey’s Economic Integration with the EU.
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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 5.1: Turkey’s Impact on the EU GDP (at current prices) (in millions of euros)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
EU-25
GDP 15,949,217 16,693,757 17,473,466 18,289,862 19,144,521 20,039,067 20,975,181 128,565,071
GDP (Low
Scenario) 15,949 16,693 17,473 18,289 19,144 20,039 20,975 128,565
GDP
(High
Scenario) 47,847 50,081 52,420 54,869 57,433 60,117 62,925 385,695
Source: Hughes K., Turkey and the European Union: Just Another Enlargement

Since the customs union is the first pillar of integration with the EU, it is believed that
the economic leap forward that was observed in the case of member states such as Spain,
Ireland and Portugal would take place together with accession. Indeed, while Ireland’s income
per capita as measured by purchasing power parity was at the level of 61 percent of the EU
average before it joined the EEC in 1973, after accession this figure reached 73 percent of the
EU average in 1990 and 115 percent in 2003. Similar effects were observed in Spain and
Portugal after they were admitted into membership. It is thought that the impact of
membership upon growth and welfare would be greater for Turkey. With a population of over
70 million and a large consumption demand, Turkey could become a driving engine for the
EU internal market as its purchasing power increases.

The wavering attitude of the EU to the question of Turkey’s membership as well as

macroeconomic instabilities have created an environment of uncertainty for external
investors, and foreign investments in Turkey so far have been below the expectations.
However, this also means a very important investment potential that remains to be tapped by
European firms. In addition, the fact that the privatisation process is functioning but not yet
completed offers a favourable environment for the increase of foreign direct investments.
With the completion of legislative measures and the creation of the necessary infrastructure
and with Turkey’s accession to the EU, investment opportunities in Turkey would increase
considerably.

Turkey’s efforts for alignment with the EU acquis concerning the internal market and
competition are completed to a major extent. In addition to legislative measures carried out in
the framework of the customs union, important arrangements are being implemented with a
view to improving the investment environment, which would directly affect foreign
investment. In this context, the Reform Programme to Improve the Investment Environment
in Turkey was adopted in December 2001 by a resolution of the Council of Ministers. With
Law No. 4884 on Company Establishment which entered into force in June 2003 under the
Reform Programme, the establishment of a company was reduced from 19 to 3 stages, making
it possible to establish a company in 1 day.

Law No. 4875 on Foreign Direct Investments, which entered into force in June 2003,
has abolished the requirements of a minimum capital and a preliminary permission to make a
foreign direct investment in Turkey and replaced the permission system with the information
system. Furthermore, the concepts of foreign direct investment and investor have been
defined at international standards, and the existing differences between foreign and local
investors in terms of establishing a company have been eliminated. At the same time, the law
that enables the “investment allowances”, one of the most important instruments for the
promotion of investments, to be automatically offered to the investor without requiring an
investment promotion certificate entered into force in April 2004. In addition, a bill has been
drafted on the creation of an “Investment Promotion Agency” to conduct activities towards

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

improving the image of our country as an investment destination, increasing foreign

investments and extending the investments that already exist. The Agency will provide all
types of service and support to facilitate the company-founding and investment process for
investors.

A more advantageous environment in terms of costs is awaiting EU companies, which

are expected to increase their investment partnerships. Labour Law No. 1475, which entered
into force in June 2003, has reduced the requirements to employ special groups such as the
disabled and ex-convicts from 8 percent to 6 percent and thus alleviated the burden on
employers. Furthermore, Law No. 5024 on Inflation Accounting was passed, introducing a
more effective system of accounting as from December 2003. Trademark and patent rights
issued by the Turkish Patent Institute established by Law No. 5000, which entered into force
in November 2003 to strengthen the administrative infrastructure for the system of intellectual
property rights, have reinforced the infrastructure in this field.

In addition to these arrangements which have been made, when Turkey’s

macroeconomic indicators and overall economic balances become more stable and lasting
together with accession to the EU, Turkey will offer a more favourable environment for
investments.

SMEs account for 99.8 percent of all enterprises in Turkey. Laws on “SME
Exchanges” and “Venture Capital Investment Partnerships” have been adopted to provide
modern financing opportunities to SMEs, which hold an important place in the Turkish
economy. Work is underway to build the institutional capacity that will ensure actual
operation in the field of venture capital. Technology centres continue their activities to
support technology-based, strongly competitive SMEs, and an information network called
KOBINET, which is integrated with the similar networks in the European Union, is operated
for SMEs to make use of information technologies. Provided that further progress is made as
regards the conditions of financing and the technological level, Turkish SMEs will be
elements operating in the EU at Community standards and adding dynamism to the economy
of the Community.

In this direction, the favourable recent trends of the Turkish economy towards
economic stability would doubtlessly come to rest on stronger foundations as a result of
membership. A steady growth that results from economic stability would lead to a continuous
increase of domestic demand, and the upward trend in domestic demand would also enhance
demand for EU goods. Together with this aspect, trade relations could acquire a more
sustainable basis, without cyclical fluctuations and falls in trade relations which have gained
depth with the customs union. Consequently, with the opportunities created by the fact that its
natural resources (in tourism, mining, etc.) and economic potentials are not yet sufficiently
exploited, with its increasing consumption demand, and with its skilled and young population
compared with the ageing population of the EU, Turkey would bring dynamism to the EU
economy and internal market.

6. The Contribution of Turkey’s Young and Educated Population to the EU Economy

The size of Turkey’s population is a subject of criticisms, which may be regarded as

reasonable to a certain extent, in some circles. However, when one considers the composition
of this population and its relationship with the needs of the EU in a dynamic process, it will be
possible to make very different assessments.
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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

In this context, the positive developments achieved in the Turkish education system in
recent years are expected to continue in the future.

In the context of efforts for alignment with the EU education system, the period of
primary education in Turkey has been raised from five to eight years. Work is underway to
raise the compulsory education period to 12 years in the near future.

As is reflected in Graph 6.1 below, the rate of literacy, which was 78.3 percent for
women and 94.5 percent for men in 2000, is expected to be 100 percent for women and men
in 2020.

Graph 6.1: Rates of literacy (percent)

100

80

60 Female

40 Male

20

0
2000 2007 2014 2020

Source: SPO, SIS

During the period 2000-2004, an increase (25 percent) has been observed in the
number of students of secondary vocational and technical education institutions. In addition,
in the same period, with the regulation providing entrance to vocational colleges from
vocational high schools without examination, the number of students of vocational colleges
rose significantly (40 percent). As can be seen from Table 6.1, the weight of the vocational
and technical schools in the education system is expected to rise.

Table 6.1: Schooling rates in secondary education (percent)

Years 2000 2007 2014 2020
Secondary Education 62.0 79.5 95.9 99.2
-General Secondary Education 37.2 41.0 44.0 44.8
- Vocational and Technical 24.8 38.5 51.9 54.4
Source: SPO

Another important indicator of the increase in the education level and quality in
Turkey, and therefore in the educated workforce, is the number of students in universities and
colleges. Looking at the schooling rates in higher education in Table 6.2, it was 29 percent in
2000 and it is estimated to rise to 49.5 percent in 2020. These figures exclude graduate
education but include extended education.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 6.2: Schooling rates in higher education (percent)

Years 2000 2007 2014 2020
Higher Education 29.0 40.3 45.5 49.5
Source: SPO
*Graduate education excluded but extended education included.

One of the most important indicators of the increasing quality of the workforce is the
share of the workforce that has received higher education in the total workforce, which is
rapidly increasing in Turkey. Examining the share of the workforce that has received higher
education in the total workforce in Graph 6.2 below, it is expected that this share, which stood
at 8.8 percent in 2000, will rise to 17.9 percent in 2020. A Turkey with a predominantly
young population and with nearly half its total workforce having received higher education
would provide important contributions to the labour market in the EU after accession.

Graph 6.2: Share of workforce that has received higher education in total workforce in Turkey
(percent)

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2020

Source: SPO

In parallel to economic development in Turkey, the structure of the labour market is

also changing. As is seen in Table 6.3, the distribution of employment by sector is developing
in favour of industry and services.

Table 6.3: Development of sectoral shares in employment (percent)

1995 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2014 2020

Agriculture 44.1 36.0 33.2 32.4 31.6 31.0 26.5 21.0

Turkey Industry 16.0 17.6 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.7 19.0 21.0

Services 39.9 46.4 48.4 49.2 49.9 50.3 54.3 58.0

Source: SPO

In demographic terms, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) studies on current

and future demographic trends point out that in the coming period the economies of Western
Europe will need more employees at every skill level in many sectors.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

While flexible labour markets prepare the ground for increased migration of temporary
labour, important developments in certain areas such as information technology increase the
demand for skilled labour in those areas. Germany is a good case in point. To meet the need
for skilled personnel in the area of information and communications technology in the labour
market, this country has recently requested about 20,000 experts from non-EU member states
in particular.

Demographic factors may have important effects on migration flows. Many experts
and social scientists working on EU social policies point out that the shortage of skilled
labour, starting in the 1980s, will be the basic factor affecting the labour markets in Europe. It
is a known fact that the increase of the elderly population in all European countries in the
2000s and the reduced participation of the young population in the labour markets will result
in a considerable shortage of skilled personnel in the member states, where employment is
concentrated in production involving the use of high technology. Turkey holds an important
potential to fill the deficit of skilled labour for the EU in the coming period.

Table 6.4: Annual rate of population growth in Turkey (percent)

2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50

0 – 14 0.14 -0.28 -0.32 -0.82 -0.99

15 – 64 1.71 1.30 0.73 0.25 -0.16

65 + 2.79 3.18 3.80 3.40 2.46

TOTAL 1.33 1.03 0.77 0.42 0.11

Source: SPO
Table 6.5: Breakdown of Population by Age Group 1990-2070* (1000)
Age Group 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
0-14 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.14
15-64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63
65+ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.20 0.23
Total 67,420 72,295 77,004 81,334 85,392 89,156 92,238 96,222 97,299 95,990 93,292
*Provisional projections revised by the SIS, the SPO and the Hacettepe University Institute of Population
Studies, according to the results of the Population and Health Survey of Turkey.

Table 6.5 includes the long-term population projection for Turkey by age groups. As
can be seen there, 64.6 percent of the population is included between the ages of 15 and 64
according to the figures for 2000. The age group of 0 to 14 constitutes 30.5 percent of the
population. According to Eurostat figures, this ratio is 16 percent for the EU-15. While it falls
to 12.5 percent for the EU-15 in 2020, it will be 23 percent in Turkey. This means that Turkey
with its young population could provide major contributions for the ageing Europe, because
the current trend means that a smaller number of working people will have to support a
greater number of retired people.

On the other hand, looking at the long-term projection of the population, it is

estimated that in the 2050s the population will stop rising and begin to decline. Therefore,
Turkey with its growing population is far from being a threat for Europe. On the contrary, it
would provide a contribution through its rising young population.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

7. Free Movement of Workers and Migration from Turkey to EU Countries

The arguments put forward against Turkey’s membership of the EU include the large
size of its population and the concern that migration on a large scale would take place from
Turkey to the EU after accession.

In the process of globalisation in which the world finds itself, migration is a complex
phenomenon which has an increasing importance in terms of both its causes and its effects
and which is directed by many variables. Among the basic factors that direct migration
between countries, one may count the difference of income between the country of destination
and the country of origin, the condition of labour markets, geographical proximity, the
tradition of migration, and ethnic, political and family ties. It may be said that cultural and
linguistic elements are also influential in directing the phenomenon of migration.

In a study by De Mooij and Tang2 for the Central Planbureau of the Netherlands,
which has been made in view of the income difference between Turkey and the EU and of the
development of population, it is estimated that, with the assumption of Turkey’s accession in
2010, a total of 2.7 million people would migrate to EU countries over a period of 15 years
following accession. For the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, it is estimated that this
figure would be 2.9 million over the next 15 years.

In EU member states, there are some unjustified concerns about the likely negative
effects of migration flows in the near future. In a way that removes those concerns, a study
entitled “The Free Movement of Workers in the Context of Enlargement” which was made by
the European Commission on 6 March 2001, it is pointed out that the impact of potential
migration to member states in the long term would be limited to only 1 percent of the EU
population.3 The overall economic impact in the host countries would have a small positive
contribution to national product while there would be a negligible negative impact on
unemployment for the citizens of the host countries.

On the other hand, considering that Turkey is currently a candidate country and the
uncertainty over the free movement of persons during the negotiating process if negotiations
are started and following eventual accession, it seems difficult to identify the possible amount
of migration from Turkey to the EU. The length of the negotiating process, the attitude of the
EU side on the free movement of persons during negotiations, the length of any transitional
period concerning the free movement of persons after accession, and the development of the
Turkish economy, Turkey’s social development and its rate of population growth in this
process, are important elements that would shape possible migration from Turkey to the EU.

Another fact which needs to be considered is that Europe’s population is rapidly

ageing and that this situation, which is already an important problem, will result in a
considerable need for working population in Europe after 2010. Turkey, which has a young,
dynamic and educated population, could provide the young population to be needed by the
European Union.

2
Ruud de Mooij and Paul Tang, "Four Futures of Europe", Central Planbureau, Netherlands Bureau for
Economic Policy Analysis, 2003.
3
"The Free Movement of Workers in the Context of Enlargement", the European Commission, p. 60.
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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

D- SOCIAL and CULTURAL ISSUES

1. The Contribution of Turkey’s Membership to the EU Mosaic

Turkey has the heritage of a State which maintained the most tolerant administration
of its time during the Middle and Modern Ages, which granted freedom of religion and
conscience to the people of different faiths, languages and races under its rule for six
centuries, and which managed to keep those nations together by allowing them to preserve
their cultures and languages.

With its historical and cultural experience and with its dual identity due to being both
European and Asian, Turkey establishes a very important link between Europe and the Black
Sea, Caucasian and Central Asian countries. It also contributes to cultural, social and political
rapprochement between the Islamic and Christian worlds, which is particularly needed after
recent events.

Certain phenomena which do not befit the century in which we live, such as
xenophobia, racism, prejudices against certain religions and identities, ethnic or religious
extremism, and anti-Semitism, are rising again in the world and threatening humanity. In such
a period, EU membership for Turkey, which has acted as a bridge between western culture
and eastern culture for centuries, would have positive consequences particularly for the
modernisation efforts of Islamic countries. Turkey’s membership would make concrete the
rapprochement between those countries and the EU. This would give added colour to the EU
mosaic, which has become more diversified as a result of the latest enlargement, and make
significant contributions to the strengthening of relations and cooperation as far as the
Caucasus, Central Asia and Islamic countries.

During the recent debates on the draft European Constitution , it has been argued that
the European Union is a Christian entity. It has been stated, especially by Valery Giscard
d’Estaing as the President of the Convention, that Turkey cannot be a part of the EU because
it does not have a Christian heritage and the great majority of its population is Muslim. The
display of such an attitude in the EU would be against the concept of diversity, one of the
fundamental values advocated by the EU, and would also lead to polarisation between
societies. Moreover, the member states of the EU have placed their systems on a secular
foundation.

At present, there is a large number of Muslims in EU countries who are in harmony

and peace with the values of the society in which they live. For example, France hosts 5
million Muslims, Germany 3.4 million, Britain 1.5 million and the Netherlands half a million,
and the total Muslim population is around 14 million. Exclusion of Turkey and regarding the
EU as a Christian club would damage harmony between Muslims and Christians.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

Table 1.1 : Muslim Population in EU Countries

Countries Number of Muslims Total Proportion of Muslims
Belgium 370,000 (1998) 10,192,240 (1998) 3.7 %
Denmark 150,000 (2000) 5,330,020 (2000) 2.8 %
Germany 3,400,000 (2002) 82,440,300 (2002) 3.9 %
France 5,000,000 (2002) 61,387,000 (2002) 8.1 %
Finland 20,000 (1999) 5,171,302 (1999) 0.4 %
Greece 370,000 (1999) 10,000,000 (1999) 3.5 %
Britain 1,591,000 (2001) 58,789,000 (2001) 2.7 %
Ireland 10,000 (2002) 3,917,336 (2002) 0.2 %
Italy 700,000 (1999) 57,596,097 (1999) 1.2 %
Luxembourg 7,000 (2000) 435,700 (2000) 1.6 %
Netherlands 695,600 (1998) 15,760,225 (1999) 4.6 %
Austria 350,000 (1999) 8,102,600 (1999) 4.0 %
Portugal 38,000 (2000) 10,000,000 (2000) 0.4 %
Sweden 300,000 (2000) 8,876,611 (2000) 3.4 %
Spain 400,000 (1999) 40,202,160 (1999) 1.0 %
Total 13,401,600 378,200,591 3.5 %
Source: Turkish Foundation for Research

Turkey, which is a democratic, secular and social state based on the rule of law and on
respect for human rights, is an inseparable part of the European system of democratic values.
Therefore, as long as Turkey’s accession to the EU does not take place, the project of
European integration will be deemed incomplete.

In addition, many cultural elements which have become symbols of European

civilisation have their origins in the present territory of Turkey.

To conclude, Turkey’s membership would show the way in the process of

democratisation for Muslim societies. The inclusion within the EU of Turkey with a Muslim
majority of its population and with a democratic, secular State based on the rule of law would
help remove concerns about radical tendencies, break prejudices and create an environment of
dialogue.

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

ANNEXES:

International Organisations of which Turkey is a Founding Member

Year of
International Organisation
Establishment
UN 1945
UNESCO 1945
OECD 1960
ICO (Islamic Conference Organisation) 1969
OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) 1975
BSEC (Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation) 1992
D-8 1997
ECO (Economic Cooperation Organisation) 1985
WTO 1995

International Organisations of which Turkey Became a Member Shortly After Establishment

International Organisation Year of Establishment Date of Turkey’s Accession
World Bank 1944 1947
IMF 1945 1947
NATO 1949 1952
Council of Europe 1949 1950

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

GDP (at current prices, in millions euros)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BELGIUM 278000 289500 301485 313967 326965 340501 354598 369278 384567 400488 417068 434334 452316 471042 490543 510851 532001
DENMARK 194745 202938 211551 220529 229888 239644 249815 260417 271469 282990 295000 307520 320571 334176 348359 363143 378555
GERMANY 2185000 2244000 2328001 2415147 2505554 2599346 2696649 2797594 2902319 3010963 3123674 3240605 3361912 3487761 3618320 3753767 3894284
GREECE 164800 175500 186094 197316 209202 221790 235119 249231 264170 279981 296712 314412 333135 352935 373866 395988 419361
SPAIN 791600 843800 895633 950431 1008324 1069442 1133907 1201834 1273329 1348479 1427354 1509997 1596420 1686601 1780479 1877961 1978925
FRANCE 1602000 1667000 1734320 1804359 1877226 1953036 2031907 2113964 2199334 2288152 2380557 2476693 2576712 2680770 2789030 2901663 3018843
IRELAND 141100 151200 161460 172376 183989 196338 209469 223426 238258 254017 270756 288531 307403 327433 348689 371239 395156
ITALY 1348000 1403000 1467137 1534206 1604341 1677682 1754376 1834576 1918442 2006142 2097851 2193753 2294039 2398909 2508573 2623250 2743170
LUXEMBOURG 24330 25610 26958 28378 29872 31445 33100 34843 36678 38609 40641 42781 45034 47405 49901 52528 55294
NETHERLANDS 463800 472600 492208 512629 533897 556048 579118 603145 628169 654231 681374 709644 739086 769750 801687 834948 869589
AUSTRIA 231700 240300 249263 258561 268205 278209 288586 299351 310516 322099 334113 346575 359503 372912 386822 401250 416217
PORTUGAL 135100 141000 147992 155331 163033 171118 179603 188509 197857 207668 217966 228775 240119 252026 264523 277641 291408
FINLAND 147700 153800 160006 166462 173179 180167 187437 195000 202869 211055 219571 228431 237649 247238 257214 267593 278391
SWEDEN 277538 290520 303147 316322 330070 344416 359385 375004 391303 408309 426055 444572 463895 484056 505094 527047 549953
UNITED KINGDOM 1725690 1819091 1909315 2004013 2103408 2207733 2317232 2432162 2552792 2679406 2812299 2951783 3098186 3251849 3413135 3582419 3760100
GASC 11957 12735 13512 14349 15236 16177 17174 18231 19350 20536 21793 23122 24530 26019 27593 29258 31017
CZECH REPUBLIC 83234 88648 101814 108434 115485 122993 130990 139507 148578 158239 168528 179485 191155 203584 216821 230919 245933
ESTONIA 8110 8909 9739 10634 11612 12680 13846 15119 16510 18028 19686 21496 23473 25632 27989 30562 33373
HUNGARY 77792 84747 92114 100280 109168 118838 129359 140806 153258 166802 181532 197548 214961 233888 254455 276798 301060
LATVIA 9380 10136 10970 11782 12654 13590 14596 15675 16835 18081 19419 20856 22399 24056 25836 27747 29800
LITHUANIA 17151 18715 19610 21185 22886 24724 26710 28856 31173 33677 36382 39304 42461 45872 49556 53536 57836
MALTA 4238 4386 4608 4850 5105 5373 5656 5953 6266 6595 6942 7307 7691 8095 8520 8968 9439
POLAND 183148 196854 197699 211914 227151 243484 260992 279758 299873 321435 344548 369322 395877 424342 454854 487559 522617
SLOVAKIA 32533 34714 36629 39150 41845 44725 47804 51095 54612 58371 62390 66684 71275 76181 81425 87030 93021
SLOVENIA 25429 27239 27582 29489 31526 33702 36026 38508 41158 43987 47006 50227 53664 57330 61237 65402 69838
BULGARIA 19753 21707 23863 26233 28838 31702 34851 38312 42116 46299 50897 55951 61508 67616 74331 81713 89828
ROMANIA 55180 64097 73231 81739 89944 98026 106834 116434 126896 138299 150725 164269 179029 195116 212648 231755 252580
TURKEY- Base Scenario 241017 272793 304194 331857 361676 395672 434501 478040 526437 579733 638425 703060 774237 852621 938940 1033999 1138681
TÜRKİYE- High Scenario 241017 272793 307053 337939 371354 409405 452847 501628 555981 616013 682305 755442 836156 925247 1023474 1131861 1251408
EU-15 (average) 647407 674657 704971 736668 769810 804461 840687 878556 918138 959506 1002733 1047894 1095065 1144324 1195749 1249419 1305416
EU-25 (average) 406563 424278 443554 464084 485593 508128 531738 556474 582387 609534 637969 667750 698939 731594 765781 801563 839007

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 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

GDP Growth Rate ( percent )

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2004-2020
BELGIUM 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
DENMARK 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
GERMANY 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
GREECE 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9
SPAIN 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.6
FRANCE 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
IRELAND 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.0
ITALY 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
LUXEMBOURG 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
NETHERLANDS 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3
AUSTRIA 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
PORTUGAL 0.9 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
FINLAND 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
SWEDEN 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
UNITED KINGDOM 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4
GASC 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7
CZECH REPUBLIC 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
ESTONIA 5.4 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
HUNGARY 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
LATVIA 6.2 6.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6
LITHUANIA 6.9 6.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6
MALTA 1.4 2.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5
POLAND 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
SLOVAKIA 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
SLOVENIA 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4
BULGARIA 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
ROMANIA 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
TURKEY- Base
Scenario 9.6 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2
TÜRKİYE- High
Scenario 9.6 4.8 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8
EU-15 (average) 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4
EU-25 (average) 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

44 http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ab/uyelik/etki/olasi-i.pdf
 The Likely Effects of Turkey’s Membership Upon the EU

44 http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ab/uyelik/etki/olasi-i.pdf