Runoff Estimates
Runoff Estimates
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What is peak discharge?
Peak discharge is the maximum rate of
flow for a given condition and is used in
the design of conservation measures.
It is the flow which occurs when the
maximum flood stage, or depth, is https://theconstructor.org/concrete/design-concrete-pipes-sewers/17652/
reached in a stream or water control
structure as a result of a storm event.
Peak discharge is also referred to as peak
rate of discharge or peak rate of runoff. It
is usually referred to in units of cubic feet
per second, or cfs.
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Limitations and assumptions in the Rational Method are as follows:
• The drainage area should not be larger than 200 acres.
• The peak flow is assumed to occur when the entire watershed is
contributing runoff.
• The rainfall intensity is assumed to be uniform over a time duration equal to
or greater than the time of concentration, Tc.
• The peak flow recurrence interval is assumed to be equal to the rainfall
intensity recurrence interval. In other words, the 10-year rainfall intensity is
assumed to produce the 10-year flood.
SI
English system
CiA
RATIONAL METHOD Q CiA Q
Where:
3.6
Q = design discharge or peak flow (cms, cfs)
C = runoff coefficient to reflect the ratio of rainfall to surface runoff
i = design rainfall intensity (mm/h, in/h)
A = watershed drainage area (km2, acres)
Runoff Coefficient
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ProfileP-2018.pdf
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Rainfall Intensity
The rainfall intensity is the average rainfall rate in inches per hour for a particular drainage
basin or subbasin. The intensity is selected on the basis of the design rainfall duration and
return period. The design duration is equal to the time of concentration for the drainage
area under consideration. The return period is established by design standards or chosen
by the hydrologist as a design parameter.
Runoff is assumed to reach a peak at the time of concentration tc when the entire
watershed is contributing to flow at the outlet. The time of concentration is the time for a
drop of water to flow from the remotest point in the watershed to the point of interest.
Use a minimum tc value of 5 minutes for urbanized areas and a minimum tc value of 10
minutes for areas that are not considered urban. Use minimum values even when
calculations result in a lesser time of concentration.
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Rainfall Intensity
For storm durations less than the time of concentration, the storm will end before runoff
from the entire watershed is reaching the outlet, so the entire watershed will never be
contributing flow at the outlet.
For storm durations greater than the time of concentration, the storm will continue beyond
the time when the entire watershed starts to contribute flow at the outlet, but a longer
duration storm will have a lower intensity than a shorter duration storm with the same
recurrence interval.
Thus a storm of duration equal to the time of concentration will indeed give the maximum
peak storm water runoff rate for a specified recurrence interval.
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RIDF
120
115
110 Return Period (years)
105
100
2 5 10 20 50 100 500 1000
95 t (min) i (in/h)
90 5 29.29 39.37 47 54.63 64.71 72.33 90.04 97.67
85
RAINFALL INTENSITY (IN/H)
2 years 5 years 10 years 20 years 50 years 100 years 500 years 1000 years
Exponential Equations
a
Type 1 i Short duration (10 min – 1 h)
(c tb)
a
Type 2 i Long duration (1 h – a day)
(c t)b
Where:
i = design rainfall intensity (mm/h)
t = rainfall duration (min)
a, b, c = constants derived from curve fittings
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Methods for Computing Time of Concentration
Kirpich Equation
Time of Concentration t c ti t t
Inlet Time (min), ti time it takes for flow from the remotest point to the
inlet point or farthest point of river channel
Flow Time (min), tf time it takes from the inlet point or farthest point of the
river channel to the outlet point or point under
consideration
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inlet
Area, A
outlet
tf ti
tc
Time of Concentration t c ti t t
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EXAMPLE Compute the flow time using Kraven’s Formula for the given watershed with its
details shown below.
B A
D C
10 20 30 40
EXAMPLE Compute the flow time using Kraven’s Formula for the given watershed with its
details shown below.
10 20 30 40
SBC 30 20
1300
SCD 20 10
2100
EXAMPLE Compute the flow time using Kraven’s Formula for the given watershed with its
details shown below.
10 20 30 40
0.01 0.005
2) Determine the flow velocity
SAB 0.0143
SBC 0.0077
SAB 0.0048
EXAMPLE Compute the flow time using Kraven’s Formula for the given watershed with its
details shown below.
10 20 30 40
t f 27 min 13 s
Time of Concentration
0.77 0.77
0.0078 L 0.0195 L
Kirpich Equation (1940) tc 0.385 tc 0.385
S S
English system SI
Where:
tc = time of concentration (min)
L = length of channel/ditch from headwater to outlet (m, ft)
S = average channel slope (m/m, ft/ft)
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SAMPLE PROBLEMS
RATIONAL METHOD
A developer is planning to convert a two-acre wooded property in City of Malolos
to a shopping center which will include 0.6 acre of rooftop, 0.90 acre of parking,
PROBLEM and 0.5 acre of lawn. The time of concentration for both pre-developed and post
1 development conditions is assumed to be the minimum of 10 minutes. Using
the following ‘C’ values and the 25-year rainfall of 6.6 in/h from the runoff
intensity curves shown, determine the existing and proposed peak runoff values
for the storm event.
Land Use/
0.6 acres C
Cover
2 acres 0.9 acre Lawn 0.30
0.5 acres Woods 0.20
Impervious 0.99
A developer is planning to convert a two-acre wooded property in City of Malolos
to a shopping center which will include 0.6 acre of rooftop, 0.90 acre of parking,
PROBLEM and 0.5 acre of lawn. The time of concentration for both pre-developed and post
1 development conditions is assumed to be the minimum of 10 minutes. Using
the following ‘C’ values and the 25-year rainfall of 6.6 in/h from the runoff
intensity curves shown, determine the existing and proposed peak runoff values
for the storm event.
Land Use/
C
Area (ha) Area (ha) Pre-devt
Cover Pre devt Post devt
Land Use/
C
Area (ha) Area (ha) Post-devt
Cover Pre devt Post devt
Lawn 0.30 0 0.5
C
0.30 0.5 ha 0.99 1.5 ha
Woods 0.20 2.0 0
2 ha
Impervious 0.99 0 1.5
C 0.8175
Q CiA
Q 0.8175 6.6 2.0 ha
in
h
Q 10.7910 cfs
A developer is planning to convert a two-acre wooded property in City of Malolos
to a shopping center which will include 0.6 acre of rooftop, 0.90 acre of parking,
PROBLEM and 0.5 acre of lawn. The time of concentration for both pre-developed and post
1 development conditions is assumed to be the minimum of 10 minutes. Using
the following ‘C’ values and the 25-year rainfall of 6.6 in/h from the runoff
intensity curves shown, determine the existing and proposed peak runoff values
for the storm event.
Land Use/
C
Area (ha) Area (ha) Increase in peak rate of runoff
Cover Pre devt Post devt
Lawn 0.30 0 0.5 ΔQpeak Qpre Qpost
Woods 0.20 2.0 0
Impervious 0.99 0 1.5 ΔQ 10.7910 2.64
Q CiA ΔQ 8.1510 cfs
A 12-km2 catchment area drains into a stream having a length of 6000 m. The
elevations at the ends of the stream are 210.45 m and 192.85 m. Based on
PROBLEM field studies, the runoff coefficient of the area is 0.35 and RIDF constants for a
2 storm with return period of 5 years are found to be: a = 1455.73, b = 0.5965,
and c = 10. It is required to determine the design flow (cms) for a broad-crested
weir in the study area.
0.0195 6000 m
Parameter Value
0.77 0.77
Awatershed 12 km2 0.0195 L
Lstream 6000 m tc 0.385
149.3747 min
210.45 192.85
0.385
S
Elev 1 210.45 m
Elev 2 192.85 m 6000
C 0.35 a 1455.73 mm
i 70.6867
R-Period 5 years
(c t ) b
(10 149.3747 ) 0.5965
h
a 1455.73
0.5965
12
b
c 10 0.35 70.6867 mm km 2
Q h 82.4678 m 3
Q CiA 3.6 s
3.6
SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE
METHOD
SCS-CN Method (NRCS-CN Method)
For drainage basins where no runoff has been measured, the Curve Number
Method can be used to estimate the depth of direct runoff from the rainfall
depth, given an index describing runoff response characteristics.
The Curve Number Method was originally developed by the Soil Conservation
Service (Soil Conservation Service 1964; 1972) for conditions prevailing in the
United States. Since then, it has been adapted to conditions in other parts of
the world. Although some regional research centres have developed additional
criteria, the basic concept is still widely used all over the world.
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Rainfall-Runoff Relationship
SCS-CN METHOD Pe
0.2S
IPa
2
For P > 0.2S
P 0.8S
Where:
Pe = direct surface runoff depth (mm, in)
P = total rainfall (mm, in)
S = potential maximum retention (mm, in)
Ia = initial abstractions (mm, in)
Potential Maximum Retention
This potential maximum retention mainly represents infiltration occurring after runoff has started.
This infiltration is controlled by the rate of infiltration at the soil surface, or by the rate of
transmission in the soil profile, or by the water-storage capacity of the profile, whichever is the
limiting factor.
Rainfall-Runoff Relationship
SCS-CN METHOD Pe
0.2S
IPa
2
For P > 0.2S
P 0.8S
Where:
Pe = direct surface runoff depth (mm, in)
P = total rainfall (mm, in)
S = potential maximum retention (mm, in)
Ia = initial abstractions (mm, in)
Initial abstraction
Initial abstraction is a parameter that accounts for all losses prior to runoff and consists mainly of
interception, infiltration, evaporation, and surface depression storage. In theory all Rainfall minus
Initial Abstraction will generate the runoff from a specified Catchment.
CN-S Relationship
S 254 100
1 S 1000 10
CN CN
Where: Where:
CN = curve number CN = curve number
S = potential maximum retention (mm) S = potential maximum retention (in)
As the potential maximum retention S can theoretically vary between zero
and infinity, the Curve Number CN can range from one hundred to zero.
Factors Affecting the Value of CN
Land Use/Cover
Land cover indicates the physical land type such as forest or open water whereas land use
documents how people are using the land.
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Group B Soils having moderate infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and a moderate rate
of water transmission. (Moderately low runoff potential)
Examples are moderately deep to deep, moderately well to well drained soils with
moderately fine to moderately coarse textures.
Group C Soils having low infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and a low rate of water
transmission. (Moderately high runoff potential)
Examples are soils with a layer that impedes the downward movement of water or
soils of moderately fine to fine texture.
Group D Soils having very low infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and a very low rate of
water transmission. (High runoff potential)
Examples are clay soils with a high swelling potential, soils with a permanently high
water table, soils with a clay pan or clay layer at or near the surface, or shallow soils
over nearly impervious material.
Antecedent Moisture Condition
These classes are based on the 5-day antecedent rainfall (i.e. the
accumulated total rainfall preceding the runoff under consideration)
The soils in the drainage basin are practically dry (i.e. the soil moisture content is at
AMC I wilting point). Low moisture condition.
AMC II Average moisture condition, normally used for annual flood estimates
The soils in the drainage basins are practically saturated from antecedent rainfalls
AMC III (i.e., the soil moisture content is at field capacity). High moisture condition.
CN II
AMC I CN I
2.281 0.01281 CN II
CN II
AMC III CN III
0.427 0.00573 CN II
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
SCS-CN METHOD
Under average conditions, a 200-ha watershed has a curve Day P (mm)
PROBLEM number of 54. The table shows a 4-day rainfall record. Before 1 60
the rainfall event happened on Day 1, the watershed was 2 35
1 categorized as AMC III. Calculate the total runoff volume 3 55
accumulated during the 4-day rainfall. 4 15
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TR-55, Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds...cont
The TR-55 method is applied to estimate peak runoff rates from
small to midsize catchments (typically less than 2000 acres), with
homogeneous land uses that can be described by a single CN
value, and with times of concentration in the range of 0.1 – 10
hours.
The procedures developed by the NRCS in TR-55 are based on a
dimensionless rainfall distribution curve for a 24-hour storm.
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TR-55, Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds...cont
The TR-55 gives special emphasis to urban and urbanizing
watersheds. An urban or urbanizing watershed is one in which
impervious surfaces cover or will soon cover a considerable area.
Impervious surfaces include roads, sidewalks, parking lots, and
buildings.
Natural flow paths in the watershed may be replaced or
supplemented by paved gutters, storm sewers, or other elements
of artificial drainage.
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Peak Q Equation
tc – hours
Drainage area – mi2
24-hour rainfall distribution
CN value
Pond and Swamp adjustment factor (If pond
and swamp areas are spread throughout the
watershed and are not considered in the tc
computation, an adjustment is needed.)
Time of Concentration and Travel Time
The time of concentration influences the shape and peak of the runoff
hydrograph. Urbanization usually decreases Tc, thereby increasing the
peak discharge. But Tc can be increased as a result of
(a) ponding behind small or inadequate drainage systems, including
storm drain inlets and road culverts, or
(b) reduction of land slope through grading.
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Time of Concentration and Travel Time
Time of concentration is the time for runoff to travel from the
hydraulically most distant point of the watershed to a point of interest
within the watershed. It is computed by summing all the travel times for
consecutive components of the drainage conveyance system.
Travel time (Tt), a component of the time of concentration, is the time it
takes water to travel from one location to another in a watershed.
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Time of Concentration and Travel Time
Water moves through a watershed as sheet flow, shallow concentrated
flow, open channel flow, or some combination of these. The type that
occurs is a function of the conveyance system and is best determined by
field inspection.
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Factors Affecting Time of Concentration and Travel Time
Surface roughness
One of the most significant effects of urban development on flow velocity
is less retardance to flow. That is, undeveloped areas with very slow and
shallow overland flow through vegetation become modified by urban
development: the flow is then delivered to streets, gutters, and storm
sewers that transport runoff downstream more rapidly. Travel time
through the watershed is generally decreased.
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Factors Affecting Time of Concentration and Travel Time
Channel shape and flow patterns
In small non-urban watersheds, much of the travel time results from
overland flow in upstream areas. Typically, urbanization reduces overland
flow lengths by conveying storm runoff into a channel as soon as possible.
Since channel designs have efficient hydraulic characteristics, runoff flow
velocity increases and travel time decreases.
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The shape of a watershed influences the shape of its characteristic
hydrograph.
For example, a long shape watershed generates, for the same rainfall, a lower
outlet flow, as the concentration time is higher.
A watershed having a fan-shape presents a lower concentration time, and it
generates higher flow.
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Factors Affecting Time of Concentration and Travel Time
Slope
Slopes may be increased or decreased by urbanization, depending on the
extent of site grading or the extent to which storm sewers and street
ditches are used in the design of the water management system.
Slope will tend to increase when channels are straightened and decrease
when overland flow is directed through storm sewers, street gutters, and
diversions.
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Time of Concentration
TC TS TSC TO
Where:
TC = time of concentration (hours)
TS = travel time for sheet flow (hours)
TSC = travel time for shallow concentrated flow (hours)
TO = travel time for open channel flow (hours)
Travel Time
Tt L
3600V
Where:
Tt = travel time (hours)
L = flow length (ft)
V = average velocity (ft/s)
3600 = conversion factor from seconds to hours
Travel Time for Sheet Flow
Manning’s Where:
Kinematic Equation TS = travel time for sheet flow (hours)
n = Manning’s roughness coefficient
0.007nL
0.8
TS L = sheet flow length (ft)
P2 S
0.5 0.4 P2 = 2-yr, 24-h rainfall (in)
S = slope of land surface (ft/ft)
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https://andyphilipp.com/2013/08/09/thats-sheet-flow/
This simplified form of the Manning’s
kinematic solution is based on the following:
(1) shallow steady uniform flow,
(2) constant intensity of rainfall excess
(that part of a rain available for runoff),
(3) Rainfall duration of 24 hours, and
(4) minor effect of infiltration on travel time.
Travel Time for Shallow Concentrated Flow
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Travel Time for Open Channel Flow
Open channels (swales, ditches, storm sewers, and tiles not flowing full)
are assumed to begin where surveyed cross-sectional information has
been obtained, where channels are visible on aerial photographs, or
where blue lines (indicating streams) appear on U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS) quadrangle sheets.
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Synthetic 24-h Rainfall Distributions
Storm distribution is a measure of how the intensity of rainfall varies over a given
period of time. For example, in a given 24 hour period, a certain amount of rainfall
is measured. Rainfall distribution describes how that rain fell over that 24 hour
period; that is, whether the precipitation occurred over a one hour period or over
the entire 24 hours. A plot of the distribution of the rainfall will determine the
timing and extent of the peak rainfall, which is assumed to represent the timing of
the peak runoff generated by the rainfall.
One common practice in rainfall-runoff analysis is to develop a synthetic rainfall
distribution to use in lieu of actual storm events. This distribution includes
maximum rainfall intensities for the selected design frequency arranged in a
sequence that is critical for producing peak runoff.
https://stormwater.pca.state.mn.us/index.php/Introduction_to_stormwater_modeling https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb1044171.pdf
Synthetic 24-h Rainfall Distributions
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Synthetic 24-h Rainfall Distributions
Where:
qu = unit peak discharge (m3/s-km2-cm)
TC = time of concentration (hr)
(minimum, 01 h; maximum, 10 h)
C0, C1, and C2 = coefficients from Table F-1
NOTE:
If Ia/P < 0.1, values of C0, C1, and C2
corresponding to Ia/P = 0.1 should be used.
If Ia/P < 0.5, values of C0, C1, and C2
corresponding to Ia/P = 0.5 should be used.
Conversion Factor
3 3
1 m 232.3204 ft
s km 2 cm s mi 2 in
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
TR-55 METHOD
PROBLEM For the watershed shown below, compute TC. The 2-year 24 hour rainfall
depth is 3.6 inches. All three types of flow occur from the hydraulically most
1 distant point (A) to the point of interest (D). Segment Description
Sheet flow
Dense grass
A AB S = 0.01 ft/ft
B L = 100 ft
Shallow concentrated flow
C BC
Unpaved
S = 0.01 ft/ft
L = 1400 ft
Channel flow
D N = 0.05
Flow Area = 27 ft2
CD Wetted perimeter = 28.2 ft
S = 0.005 ft/ft
L = 7300 ft
PROBLEM For the watershed shown below, compute TC. The 2-year 24 hour rainfall
depth is 3.6 inches. All three types of flow occur from the hydraulically most
1 distant point (A) to the point of interest (D). Segment Description
Sheet flow
Dense grass
TC TS TSC TO Ans.: 1.53 h AB S = 0.01 ft/ft
L = 100 ft
0.007nL
0.8
Shallow concentrated flow
TS
P2 S
0.5 0.4
BC
Unpaved
S = 0.01 ft/ft
V 16.13S
L L = 1400 ft
TSC 0.5
Channel flow
3600V
N = 0.05
1.49R S
2 1
TO L 3 2 Flow Area = 27 ft2
3600V V CD Wetted perimeter = 28.2 ft
n
S = 0.005 ft/ft
L = 7300 ft
Under average conditions, a watershed having an area of 0.45 mi2, has a
PROBLEM CN = 75. No ponds and swampy areas exist in the watershed and based on
2 previous studies, the total time of concentration is 1.53 hours. Calculate
the peak discharge resulting from a 24-hr, Type II rainfall equal to 6 inches.
P Ia
Pe
6 0.6667
2
3.2821 in
6 0.8 3.3333
Under average conditions, a watershed having an area of 0.45 mi2, has a
PROBLEM CN = 75. No ponds and swampy areas exist in the watershed and based on
2 previous studies, the total time of concentration is 1.53 hours. Calculate
the peak discharge resulting from a 24-hr, Type II rainfall equal to 6 inches.
Ia
0.1111 Area 0.45 mi2
P CN (AMC II) 75
Ia/P C0 C1 C2 C0 2.5484 FP 1.0
0.1 2.55323 -0.61512 -0.16403 TC 1.53 h
C1 0.6155
0.1111 C0 C1 C2 P (24-h, Type II) 6 in.
0.3 2.46532 -0.62257 -0.11657 C 2 0.1614 Pe 3.2821 in
qu 268.7018 csm/in
logq u C 0 C1 logTC C 2 logTC 2.366
2
3 3
q u 268.7018 ft csm ft
Q p 396.8577
s mi 2 in in s
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
(Using Frequency Factors)
Introduction
Planning and design of hydraulic structures are concerned with future events
which are stochastic in nature and the concepts of probability or frequency
are necessary.
The acceptable level of risk in water resources engineering depends on
economic and policy considerations.
A hydraulic structure can be designed for the worst possible event, but the
cost involved will be very high.
▪ Frequency of the event (rainfall or flood)
▪ Acceptable risk
Introduction
Using annual peak flow data that is available for a number of years, flood
frequency analysis is used to calculate statistical information such as mean,
standard deviation and skewness which is further used to create frequency
distribution graphs.
Probability Distributions
(1) Normal Distribution
(2) Log-Normal Distribution
(3) Gumbel Distribution
(4) Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
Flood Frequency Analysis
(Using Frequency Factors)
The results of flood flow frequency analysis can be used for many
engineering purposes:
(1) for the design of dams, bridges, culverts, water supply systems, and flood control
structures;
(2) to determine the economic value of flood control projects;
(3) to determine the effect of encroachments in the floodplain;
(4) to determine a reservoir stage for real estate acquisition and reservoir-use purposes;
(5) for the selection of runoff magnitudes for interior drainage, pumping plant, and local
protection project design; and
(6) for flood-plain zoning, etc.
Procedures of Frequency Analysis
1) Data selection
2) Calculation of statistical parameters
3) Probability Distribution
4) Testing the goodness-of-fit
Selection of Data (Hydrologic Data series)
The study of extreme hydrologic events involves the selection of a sequence
of the largest or smallest observations from sets of data.
Example: study of peak flows Time recorded Number of recorded data
Every 15 minutes 1
Per hour 60 min/15 min = 4
Per day (24 hours) 24 x 4 = 96
Per year (365 days) 365 x 96 = 35,040
The annual maximum flow event used for flood flow frequency analysis is the
largest of more than 35,000 observations during that year. And this exercise
is carried out for each year of historical data.
Selection of Data (Hydrologic Data series)
The time interval length is usually taken as one year, and a series so selected
is called an annual series.
Using largest annual values, it is an annual maximum series.
Selecting the smallest annual values produces an annual minimum series.
Statistical Parameters
𝐧 𝟐
𝟏
Variance 𝝈𝟐 = 𝐱𝐢 − 𝐱ത
𝐧−𝟏
𝐢=𝟏
Coefficient 𝛔
of 𝐂𝐕 =
Variation 𝛍
Coefficient 𝐧 σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐱𝐢 − 𝐱ത 𝟑
of 𝐂𝐒 =
Skewness 𝐧 − 𝟏 𝐧 − 𝟐 𝛔𝟑
Probability Distribution
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-frequency-analysis
Normal Distribution
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doku.php?id=features:distributions:gam
Log-Normal ma
Distribution
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Gumbel Distribution
nical-articles/introduction-to-Gaussian-
distribution-electrical-engineering/
𝐱ത = 𝐱𝐢
𝐢=𝟏
𝐱ത = 𝐱𝐢
𝐢=𝟏
𝟔 𝐓
𝐊𝐓 = − 𝟎. 𝟓𝟕𝟕𝟐 + 𝐥𝐧 𝐥𝐧
𝛑 𝐓−𝟏
𝐧
𝟏
𝛔= 𝐱𝐢 − 𝐱ത
𝐧−𝟏
𝐢=𝟏
Where:
xT = magnitude of a hydrologic event
𝐱ത = the mean (average of the sample data)
KT = frequency factor
= standard deviation
T = return period
Log-Pearson Type III
Distribution yT = yത + K T σ
(Gamma)
𝐧 y = log x
𝐲ത = 𝐲𝐢
𝐢=𝟏
xT = 10yT
When CS = 0, 𝐊𝐓 = z
𝟏 𝟑 𝟏 𝟓
𝐊𝐓 = 𝐳 + 𝐳𝟐 𝟐 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒
− 𝟏 𝐤 + 𝐳 − 𝟔𝐳 𝐤 − 𝐳 − 𝟏 𝐤 + 𝐳𝐤 + 𝐤 When CS ≠ 0
𝟑 𝟑
𝐂𝐬
𝐤=
𝟔
Where:
𝐧 yT = magnitude of a hydrologic event
𝟏 𝐲ത = the mean (average of the sample data)
𝛔= 𝐱𝐢 − 𝐱ത
𝐧−𝟏 KT = frequency factor
𝐢=𝟏 = standard deviation
T = return period
Cs = coefficient of skewness
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
(Using Frequency Factors)
Probability Plotting
As a check that a probability distribution fits a set of hydrologic data, the data may be
plotted on specially designed probability paper, or using a plotting scale that linearizes
the distribution function. The plotted data are then fitted with a straight line for
interpolation and extrapolation purposes
Probability Plotting
PROBABILITY PAPER
The cumulative probability of a theoretical distribution may be represented graphically
on probability paper designed for the distribution. On such paper the ordinate usually
represents the value of x in a certain scale and the abscissa represents the probability
P(X > x) or P(X < x), the return period T, or the reduced variate yT.
The ordinate and abscissa scales are so designed that the data to be fitted are expected
to appear close to a straight line.
The purpose of using the probability paper is to linearize the probability relationship so
that the plotted data can be easily used for interpolation, extrapolation, or comparison
purposes.
Probability Plotting Methods
PLOTTING POSITIONS
Plotting position refers to the probability value assigned to each piece of data to be
plotted.
𝟑
𝒎 𝒎 − 𝟎. 𝟑 𝒎 𝒎−
𝒎 − 𝟎. 𝟓 𝒎 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒 𝟖
𝒏 𝒏 + 𝟎. 𝟒 𝒏+𝟏 𝒏 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐 𝟏
𝒏 𝒏+
𝟒
100000.00
10000.00
DISCHARGE, cfs
1000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
STANDARD NORMAL VARIABLE, Z
Goodness-of-Fit Methods
𝑶𝒊 − 𝑬𝒊 𝟐
Chi-Squared 𝟐
Where:
𝒙𝒄 = Oi = observed (sample) values
Test 𝑬𝒊 Ei = expected (theoretical) values
TIME APD (cms)
16/05/1981 173.80
PROBLEM
1 14/03/1982
03/05/1983
14/02/1984
25/02/1985
162.60
96.10
139.50
123.80
12/12/1985 101.30
The maximum discharge records from a 20/05/1987 97.40
streamflow gage station are given in the 08/04/1988 216.20
table below. Determine the design flood 05/06/1989 130.00
24/02/1990 129.70
using Normal Distribution Method for the
31/12/1991 92.70
return periods of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 16/07/1992 165.20
500 and 1000. 06/01/1993 104.00
13/04/1994 146.00
08/03/1995 102.30
20/07/1996 148.60
28/02/1997 114.00
24/07/1998 76.40
24/01/1999 121.80
26/06/2000 130.20
APD (cms) RANGE
INTERVAL n fs (Xi) Fs (Xi)
(cfs)
76.40
92.70 1 <80 1 0.05 0.05
96.10 2 80-90 0 0.00 0.05
97.40 3 90-100 3 0.15 0.20
101.30 4 100-110 3 0.15 0.35
102.30
104.00
5 110-120 1 0.05 0.40
114.00 6 120-130 4 0.20 0.60
121.80 7 130-140 2 0.10 0.70
123.80 8 140-150 2 0.10 0.80
129.70 9 150-160 0 0.00 0.80
130.00
10 160-170 2 0.10 0.90
130.20
139.50 11 170-180 1 0.05 0.95
146.00 12 180-190 0 0.00 0.95
148.60 13 190-200 0 0.00 0.95
162.60 14 200-210 0 0.00 0.95
165.20
15 >210 1 0.05 1.00
173.80
216.20 TOTAL 20 1.0
RELATIVE FREQUENCY FUNCTION
4.5
4
4
3.5
RELATIVE FREQUENCY
3
3 3
2.5
2
2 2 2
1.5
1
1 1 1 1
0.5
0 0 0 0 0
0
1.00 1.00
0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95
0.90
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY
0.40 0.40
0.35
0.20 0.20
0.05 0.05
0.00
PROBLEM
1 14/03/1982
03/05/1983
14/02/1984
25/02/1985
162.60
96.10
139.50
123.80
12/12/1985 101.30
The maximum discharge records from a 20/05/1987 97.40
streamflow gage station are given in the 08/04/1988 216.20
table below. Determine the design flood 05/06/1989 130.00
24/02/1990 129.70
using Normal Distribution Method for the
31/12/1991 92.70
return periods of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 16/07/1992 165.20
500 and 1000. 06/01/1993 104.00
13/04/1994 146.00
08/03/1995 102.30
20/07/1996 148.60
28/02/1997 114.00
24/07/1998 76.40
24/01/1999 121.80
26/06/2000 130.20
Goodness-of-Fit
Goodness-of-fit tests include various tests that measure how well a statistical model
(which is built from theory) fits the observed data.
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The goodness-of-fit test compares the observed values to the expected (fitted or
predicted) values.
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WATER DEMAND
WATER DEMAND
This Chapter describes the method of determining the water volumes needed by a new small water utility project to supply
the population it intends to cover. (Philippine setting)
A. GENERAL
The first step in designing a Level II or small Level III water system is to determine how much water is needed by the
population to be covered. The water to be supplied should be sufficient to cover both the existing and future consumers. It
must include provisions for domestic and other types of service connections. In addition to the projected consumptions, an
allowance for non-revenue water (NRW) that may be caused by leakages and other losses should be included. Water
demands are influenced by the following factors:
Once the consumption demands are defined, the next step is to determine the service level as part of the demand analysis.
• Level I (Point Source) – This level provides a protected well or a developed spring with an outlet, but without a
distribution system. The users go to the source to fetch the water. This is generally adaptable for rural areas where
affordability is low and the houses in the intended service area are not crowded. A Level I facility normally serves
an average of 15 households within a radius of 250 meters.
• Level II (Communal Faucet System or Stand Posts) – This type of system is composed of a source, a reservoir, a
piped distribution network, and communal faucets. Usually, one faucet serves four to six households within a
radius of 25 meters. It is generally suited for rural and urban fringe areas where houses are clustered in sufficient
density to justify a simple piped system. The consumers still go to the supply point (communal faucet) to fetch the
water.
• Level III (Waterworks System or Individual House Connections) – This system includes a source, a reservoir, a
piped distribution network, and individual household taps. It is generally suited for densely populated urban areas
where the population can afford individual connections.
C. DESIGN PERIOD
In commercial utility models, the design period normally spans long periods involving decades within which the initial
capital outlay and succeeding outlays for expansion and rehabilitation can be rationally recovered. For small water utilities,
including those owned by the local governments, such large outlays are not available and cannot be matched by the rural
population’s capacity to pay. For these reasons, the design period or horizon in this Manual is set at 5 or 10 years. In fact,
these are the design periods frequently decided by agreements among the funder, the implementing agency, and the
community or the LGU. In setting the design period, the designer should take into account the terms of the financing
package and the potential consumers’ capability and willingness to pay the amounts needed to support repayment. The
advantages and disadvantages for the 5- and 10-year options are:
• Advantages – Low initial capital cost. If the project is to be financed through a loan, the loan amortizations are
lower due to the lower investment cost.
• Disadvantages – Need for new capital outlays after five (5) years to upgrade system capacity. Most waterworks
facilities, like reservoirs and pipelines are more viable to plan for a one stage 10-year period than to plan in two
stages of 5-year period each.
2. Ten-year design period
Advantages – The water system facilities are capable of meeting the demand over a longer period. No major
investment cost is expected during the 10-year design period.
• Disadvantages – The higher initial capital cost will require initial tariffs to be set higher.
D. DESIGN POPULATION
The design population is the targeted number of people that the project will serve. Examples in this section on population
and water demand projections are based on the assumption that the design period is 10 years and the design year (or base
year) is 2020. There are two ways of projecting the design population.
1. Estimate the population that can be served by the sources. In this case, the supply becomes the limiting factor in
the service level, unless a good abundant and proximate source is available in the locality.
2. Project the community or barangay population, and determine the potential service area4 and the served
population.
For purposes of illustration, the latter method is used throughout this Chapter. (The challenge is to discover and develop
sources for populations in need of potable water supply. It is relatively simple to correlate the projected population to be
served with the limitations of supply that may be determined using the first method.) The historical population growth
rates of the municipality/city/barangays are needed as the basis for population projections. The population is enumerated
every 5 years (beginning on 1960, except in 2005 where it was moved to 2007 due to budgetary constraints). The latest
national census was conducted for year 2010 but no official results have as yet been released by the NSO. These data can
be obtained from the local governments themselves or from the National Statistics Office (NSO). 5
Where:
P2007 = population in 2007
P2000 = population in 2000
GR = annual growth rate (multiply by 100 to get percent growth rate)
N = the number of years between two census, in this case n = 7
Using the above equations, the latest average annual growth rate GR for the municipality and its barangays (potential
service area) can be determined. If a new census report is released by NSO, say for the year 2010, the above formula should
be adjusted accordingly.
The latest historical GR of each covered barangay could then be projected every five years (2010, 2015, 2020). If no
projections of population or growth rates are available for the municipality, the following assumptions can be used:
1. The maximum annual GR by year 2010 will be 2.5% (unless there is a planned development in the barangay that
will boost immigration). It is assumed that the Government’s population program and the public awareness of the
issue will eventually temper high population growth. This is applicable to historical annual GRs that are more than
2.5%. Interpolation of the GR2007 and GR2010 will be done to get the GRs for the in-between years.
2. The minimum annual GR by year 2010 will be 1.0%. An annual GR of less than 1.0% for any barangay to be
served is deemed unreasonably low considering that with the provision of accessible water supply, the barangay
very likely will attract migrants. This is particularly applicable to historical annual GRs that are less than 1.0%. The
GR2007 and GR2010 could then be interpolated to get the GRs for the in-between years.
3. For the reasons stated, the GRs within 1.0% to 2.5% will decrease by a modest 0.5% per year. Table 3.1 shows a
sample GR projection using the above method.
The projected growth rates are preliminary and should be examined if reasonable and realistic. These should be compared
with projections, if any, from the Provincial and Municipal Planning and Development Offices. Adjustments on the
computed GRs should be made as considered necessary.
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃𝑜 (1 + 𝐺𝑅)𝑛
Where:
Pn = the projected population after nth year from initial year
Po = the population in the initial year of the period concerned
GR = the average growth rate between the two periods
N = number of years between Po and Pn
To project, for example, the population for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020, the equation is substituted as follows:
The population for the years in-between are projected by using the same basic equation and applying the respective growth
rates for the periods.
E. WATER CONSUMPTIONS
Water consumptions served by small water utilities are commonly classified into Domestic Use, Commercial Use,
Institutional Use, or Industrial Use. In rural areas, water consumption is generally limited to domestic uses, i.e., drinking,
cooking, cleaning, washing and bathing. Domestic consumption is further classified as either Level II consumption (public
faucets) or Level III consumption (house connections).
1. Unit Consumptions
Unit consumption for domestic water demand is expressed in per capita consumption per day. The commonly used unit is
liters per capita per day (lpcd). If no definitive data are available, the unit consumption assumptions recommended for
Level II and Level III domestic usages in rural areas are as follows:
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM | Water Resources Engineering 3
FTSamonte2017
Bulacan State University – Civil Engineering Department
If there are public schools and health centers in the area, they will be supplied from the start of systems operation and be
classified as institutional connections. Commercial establishments can also be assumed to be served, after consultation
with the stakeholders, within the 5-year period. The unit consumptions of institutional and commercial connections are, in
terms of daily consumption per connection, usually expressed in cubic meters per day (m3/d). Unless specific information is
available on the consumptions of these types of connections, the following unit consumptions for commercial and
institutional connections can be used.
This unit consumption can be assumed to be constant during the design period under consideration, unless available
information indicates otherwise.
2. Total Consumption
The total consumption is the sum of the domestic, institutional and commercial consumptions expressed in m 3/d.
a. Domestic Consumption:
The year-by-year total domestic consumption is projected by applying the projected unit consumption to the
projected population to be served for each year. The served population is estimated by employing the market
survey results and the planner’s judgment of the potential of the area. Based on experience, most water systems
originally constructed as Level II have upgraded either to Level III or to a combined Level II and Level III system. In
anticipation of the trend towards upgrading to Level III in the future, the Level II system planner should assume
that within 5 years, 90% of the households served would opt for individual house connections. This estimate,
however, should be tempered by the planner’s direct first-hand information about the area and its population.
G. WATER DEMAND
The water demand is a summation of all the consumptions given in the preceding sections and will determine the capacity
needed from the source/s. The average daily water demand, also known as the average day demand (ADD), is calculated (in
m3/day or lps) from the estimated water consumptions and the allowance for the NRW (expressed as a percentage). A
system with consumption of 2 lps with a 15% NRW will have an average day demand equal to
2 𝑙𝑝𝑠
= 2.4 𝑙𝑝𝑠
(1 − 𝑁𝑅𝑊)
• Minimum day demand: The minimum amount of water required in a single day over a year.
• Average day demand: The average of the daily water requirement spread in a year.
• Maximum day demand: The maximum amount of water required in a single day over a year.
• Peak hour demand: The highest hourly demand in a day.
Each of the above demand conditions is designated a demand factor to define its value based on the average day demand.
For a Level II/III system, the following demand factors are recommended:
The average day demand is first estimated, and the estimates for the other demands follow by directly applying the
respective demand factors to the projected average day demand.
• Average day demand: Annual estimates and projections on production, revenues, non-revenue water, power costs, and
other O&M costs are based on the average day demand.
• Maximum day demand: The total capacity of all existing and future water sources should be capable of supplying at least
the projected maximum day demand at any year during the design period. The design of treatment plants, pump capacity
and pipelines considers the maximum day demand supply rate as an option in the optimization analysis.
• Peak hour demand: The pipeline network should be designed to operate with no point in the system having pressure
below 3 meters during peak hour conditions. If there is no reservoir, the power ratings of pumping stations should be
sufficient for the operation of the facilities during peak hour demands.
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Service Levels
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Level 1
Point Source
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highlight/
Level 2
Communal Faucet System or Stand Posts
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development-to-stop-communal-crisis-between- munity_Water_Tap_in_Ridikot_VDC_(7157254552).jpg
ediba-usumutong-ndoma-egba/
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habitat/aga-khan-agency-habitat-water-and-sanitation-
programme
Level 3
Waterworks System/Individual House Connections
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system/
Sample Problem
Given data:
P0 = 2000
P10 = 3000
Persons per household (HH) = 5
Unit Consumption:
For Level II water service: 50 lpcd, 6HH per faucet
For Level III water service: 90 lpcd
Assumptions:
1) For present water service (Level II):
Assume 15% NRW
2) For water service at year 10:
Assume that 90% of the HHs will have Level III connections at Year 10
For the community size, assume additional two commercial and one institutional connections with the following
consumptions:
Commercial Connections: 0.8 m3/d
Institutional Connection: 1.0 m3/d
Assume 15% NRW
Determine:
Required source capacity for a well operating 18 hrs/day for
1) Present water service (Level II)
2) Water service at year 10 (consider demand factor for Maximum Day Demand)
Given data:
P0 = 2000
Persons per household (HH) = 5
Unit Consumption:
For Level II water service: 50 lpcd, 6HH per faucet
Assumptions:
1) For present water service (Level II):
Assume 15% NRW
Determine:
Required source capacity for a well operating 18 hrs/day for
1) Present water service (Level II) PRESENT
1) Present: Water Service (Level II)
Unit consumption
50 li
capita persons li
UC 5 250
day HH day HH
Total domestic li
consumption day
Tdc 1500 67 faucets 100500 li
faucet day
Assumptions:
2) For water service at year 10:
Assume that 90% of the HHs will have Level III connections at Year 10
For the community size, assume additional two commercial and one institutional connections with the following
consumptions:
Commercial Connections: 0.8 m3/d
Institutional Connection: 1.0 m3/d
Assume 15% NRW
Determine:
Required source capacity for a well operating 18 hrs/day for
YEAR 10
2) Water service at year 10 (consider demand factor for Maximum Day Demand)
2) Year 10: Water Service (Level III)
Number of
N c 3000 persons HH 0.90 540 HH (connections)
connections (L-III) 5 persons
Number of
N c 3000 persons HH 0.90 540 HH (connections)
connections (L-III) 5 persons
Unit consumption
90 li li
capita persons
UC 5 450 HH
day HH day
Total domestic li
3
consumption (L-III)
Tdc ( L III) 450 HH 540 HH 243000 li 243 m
day day day
2) Year 10: Water Service (Level III)
WASTEWATER
Wastewater refers to all effluent from household, commercial establishments and institutions, hospitals, industries and so
on. It also includes stormwater and urban runoff, agricultural, horticultural and aquaculture effluent. Wastewater must be
collected and disposed of to maintain healthful and attractive living conditions.
Effluent refers to the sewage or liquid waste that is discharged into water bodies either from direct sources or from treatment
plants. Influent refers to water, wastewater, or other liquid flowing into a reservoir, basin or treatment plant.
Sewage is also wastewater. It is wastewater originating from toilets and bathroom fixtures, bathing, laundry, kitchen sinks,
cleaners, and similar dirty water that is produced in households and public places. Water used to irrigate turf and gardens,
swimming pools, roof drainage, surface runoff and stormwater are all wastewater but not classified as sewage.
The functional elements of a modern municipal wastewater management is shown in Table 3c.1 and the interrelationship of
these elements are shown in Figure 3c.1.
Table 3c.1 The Functional Elements of Municipal Wastewater Management (Source: Linsley and Franzini 3rd edition)
Principal concerns in facilities design
Functional Element Description
(primary/secondary)
Sources of wastewater in the community, such as
Sources Quantity/Quality
residences, commercial establishments, and industries
Facilities for pretreatment or flow equalization of
On-site Processing Quality/Quantity
wastewater before it is discharged to a collection system
Facilities for collection of wastewater from individual
Collection Quantity/Quality
sources in a community
Facilities to pump and transport collected wastewater to
Transmission Quantity/Quality
processing and treatment sites
Treatment Quality/Quantity Facilities for treatment of wastewater
Facilities for disposal of treated effluent and residual
Disposal Quality/Quantity
solids resulting from treatment
Source(s) of wastewater
On-site Processing
Wastewater Collection
Treatment
Disposal or Reuse
Figure 3c.1 Interrelationship of the functional elements of a municipal wastewater management system (Source: Linsley and Franzini 3rd edition)
Sources of Wastewater
1) Dry Weather Flow (DWF)
Dry weather flow refers to the wastewater flow in a sewer system during periods of dry weather with minimum
infiltration.
1) Domestic wastewater (sanitary/spent water) – discharged from residences and from commercial, institutional,
and similar facilities.
2) Industrial wastewater - the sewage or wastewater obtained from manufacturing plants of the industries
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3) Infiltration/inflow – Infiltration refers to the groundwater entering sewers via defective or broken pipes. Inflows
correspond to storm water entering sewers from inappropriate connections, such as roof drains, storm drains,
downspouts and sump pumps.
Figure 3c.2 Combined sewer system. During dry weather (and small storms), all flows are handled by the publicly owned treatment works (POTW).
During large storms, the relief structure allows some of the combined stormwater and sewage to be discharged untreated to an adjacent water body.
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_sewer#/media/File:CSO_diagram_US_EPA.svg)
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝑑𝑎𝑦 1
(− )
= 5.0 𝑃 6 3c.1
𝑄𝑎𝑣𝑔 𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝑄𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑦 1
( ) 3c.2
= 0.2 𝑃 6
𝑄𝑎𝑣𝑔 𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝑑𝑎𝑦 1
(− ) 3c.3
= 25 𝑃 3
𝑄𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑦
Where:
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝑑𝑎𝑦 = maximum daily flow rate of spent water
𝑄𝑎𝑣𝑔 𝑑𝑎𝑦 = average daily flow rate of spent water
𝑄𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑦 = minimum daily flow rate of spent water
𝑃 = population in thousands
The most commonly used ratio is equation 3c.1 which is known as the peaking factor. In this way the maximum flow is
calculated by multiplying the average flow by the peaking factor.
Commonly used sets of ratios are compared in Manuals of Practice, ASCE No. 60 and WEF No. FD – 5 (2007). Such variations
of ratios with population are shown in Table 3c.2
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C. Estimation of infiltration/inflow
There is always some entry of groundwater into sewers through broken pipe, defective joints, and other similar entry points.
The amount of infiltration depends mostly on the groundwater level and the care exercised in the construction of the sewer.
If the groundwater table is below the sewer, infiltration will occur only when water is moving down through the soil. If the
water table is high, infiltration rates of 300 to 1500 gpd per acre (3 to 15 m 3/day per hectare) or area sewered may occur.
Infiltration is sometimes estimated between 100 to 10,000 gpd per inch of diameter per mile (0.1 to 10 m 3/day per centimeter
of diameter per kilometer) of sewer. Estimates of inflow from roof leaders and other sources must be based on local
conditions.
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𝑄 = 𝐶𝑖𝐴 3c.5
Where:
Q = design discharge or peak flow
C = runoff coefficient to reflect the ratio of rainfall to surface runoff
i = design rainfall intensity
A = watershed drainage area
Runoff Coefficient: The runoff coefficient, C, is a dimensionless ratio intended to indicate the amount of runoff generated by
a watershed given an average intensity of precipitation for a storm. The runoff coefficient represents the fraction of rainfall
converted to runoff. The runoff coefficient depends upon the porosity of soil cover, wetness and ground cover. The overall
runoff coefficient for the catchment area can be worked out as follows:
(𝐴𝑛 𝐶𝑛 )
𝐶=∑ 3c.6
𝐴𝑇
Where:
C = overall runoff coefficient for a catchment area
A1, A2, ….An are types of area with C1, C2, …Cn as their coefficient of runoff, respectively.
AT = total area of the catchment
The typical runoff coefficient used in the Philippines for the different ground cover is provided in the Table 3c.1.
Rainfall Intensity: The rainfall intensity is a function of the time of concentration and the design storm. The time of
concentration, TC, is defined as the time required for runoff to travel from the most hydraulically distant point in the
watershed to the point of interest (outlet). For small drainage basins that are dominated by channel flow, the Kirpich (1940)
equation can be used. The Kirpich equation is
0.385
𝐿3
𝑡𝑐 = 0.0078 ( ) 3c.7
ℎ
where:
tc = time of concentration (min),
L = length of main channel (ft), and
h = relief along main channel (ft).
Some authors use an adjustment factor for the Kirpich approach to correct for paved channels. The Kirpich method is limited
to watershed with a drainage area of about 200 acres.
Drainage Area: The drainage area, A, is often determined from a map which includes the drainage area of interest. It may be
necessary to first determine the boundaries of the drainage area using a contour map. Once the boundaries are known, the
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area can be determined using the map scale. Since the area must be in acres for use in the Rational Method equation, a useful
conversion factor is 43,560 ft2/acre.
Sewerage System
Sewerage system consists of pipes, pumps for collection of wastewater, or sewage, from a community.
The sewerage systems or water carriage systems are of the following three types:
1. Separate System
2. Combined System
3. Partially Separate System.
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