JCM 12 05410
JCM 12 05410
Clinical Medicine
Article
Comparing Meta-Analyses with ChatGPT in the Evaluation of
the Effectiveness and Tolerance of Systemic Therapies in
Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis
Xuân-Lan Lam Hoai 1 and Thierry Simonart 2, *
Abstract: Background: Meta-analyses (MAs) and network meta-analyses (NMAs) are high-quality
studies for assessing drug efficacy, but they are time-consuming and may be affected by biases. The
capacity of artificial intelligence to aggregate huge amounts of information is emerging as particularly
interesting for processing the volume of information needed to generate MAs. In this study, we
analyzed whether the chatbot ChatGPT is able to summarize information in a useful fashion for
providers and patients in a way that matches up with the results of MAs/NMAs. Methods: We
included 16 studies (13 NMAs and 3 MAs) that evaluate biologics (n = 6) and both biologic and
systemic treatment (n = 10) for moderate-to-severe psoriasis, published between January 2021 and
May 2023. Results: The conclusions of the MAs/NMAs were compared to ChatGPT’s answers to
queries about the molecules evaluated in the selected MAs/NMAs. The reproducibility between
the results of ChatGPT and the MAs/NMAs was random regarding drug safety. Regarding efficacy,
ChatGPT reached the same conclusion as 5 out of the 16 studies (four out of four studies when three
molecules were compared), gave acceptable answers in 7 out of 16 studies, and was inconclusive in
4 out of 16 studies. Conclusions: ChatGPT can generate conclusions that are similar to MAs when
the efficacy of fewer drugs is compared but is still unable to summarize information in a way that
matches up to the results of MAs/NMAs when more than three molecules are compared.
Citation: Lam Hoai, X.-L.; Simonart,
T. Comparing Meta-Analyses with
ChatGPT in the Evaluation of the
Keywords: psoriasis; artificial intelligence; meta-analysis
Effectiveness and Tolerance of
Systemic Therapies in
Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis.
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410. https:// 1. Introduction
doi.org/10.3390/jcm12165410 Meta-analyses (MAs) and network meta-analyses (NMAs) are crucial for synthesizing
Academic Editor: Vito Di Lernia the enormous amount of information gathered to answer specific questions and are gener-
ally considered some of the best tools for evidence-based practice in medicine as they are
Received: 28 July 2023 based on the findings of multiple studies that were identified in comprehensive, systematic
Revised: 16 August 2023
literature searches [1–3]. A MA/NMA is an especially valuable form of comparative effec-
Accepted: 17 August 2023
tiveness research because it emphasizes the magnitude of intervention effects rather than
Published: 20 August 2023
relying on tests of statistical significance among primary studies [2], but it also has some
disadvantages and limitations. MAs/NMAs require complex statistical techniques and a
significant amount of time to produce (often as long as 1 year) [4] and are, therefore, rarely
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
updated [5,6]. They may also be affected by quality issues (i.e., loose criteria for choosing
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. the studies to be included, minor deviations from protocol [3], publication towards pos-
This article is an open access article itive studies, an incomplete set of keywords used, and a wide variation in the strategies
distributed under the terms and used to search in different databases) or even conflicts of interest, resulting in biased and
conditions of the Creative Commons misleading results.
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// The capacity of artificial intelligence (AI) to aggregate huge amounts of information
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ by automatically extracting the written text of medical papers and converting the text into
4.0/). a more structured set of data is emerging as particularly interesting for processing the
volume of information needed to generate MAs [7–9]. An AI such as the chatbot ChatGPT
(chat generative pre-trained transformer) creates realistic and intelligent-sounding text in
response to user prompts. It is a ‘large language model’, a system based on neural networks
that learn to perform a task by digesting huge amounts of existing human-generated
text [10]. As a language model, ChatGPT processes and generates texts based on the input
it has been trained on, which includes a wide variety of sources such as books, articles,
websites, and other texts. Some of its features include answering follow-up questions,
challenging incorrect premises, rejecting inappropriate queries, and even admitting its
mistakes [10]. The software company OpenAI, based in San Francisco, California, released
the tool ChatGPT on 30 November 2022. ChatGPT is designed to engage in natural and
coherent conversations with users, providing responses that are contextually relevant and
often indistinguishable from human-generated text ChatGPT, being a versatile language
model, has a wide range of potential applications across various domains, including, among
others, content generation, language translation, text summarization, educational support,
creative writing, coding assistance, language learning, data analysis, social interaction and
health. In this study, we investigated whether ChatGPT could correctly summarize the
information from available data on treatment for moderate-to-severe psoriasis and estimate
the relative efficacy of biologic and systemic therapies in a reliable manner.
Figure
Figure 1. Flowchart
1. Flowchart ofofstudy
study identification,
identification, screening, and inclusion.
screening, and inclusion.
The main results of the MAs/NMAs are summarized in Table 1.
The main results of the MAs/NMAs are summarized in Table 1.
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410 4 of 12
Table 1. Efficacy and safety outcomes and main conclusions of the included studies from 2021–2023 and ChatGPT’s outputs.
Most Effective
Efficacy and Safety Most Effective Therapies
Included Study (2021–2023) Type of Study Evaluated Molecules Therapies Tolerance (MA) Tolerance (ChatGPT)
Outcomes (MA) (ChatGPT)
(Meta-Analyses)
The efficacy of SEC is
Week 12/16/24 The ranking of these biologics
Pan et al., 2021 [19] NMA ADA, INF, SEC well demonstrated NA NA
PASI 50/75/90 is SEC > ADA > INF.
through NMA.
The short-term efficacy of
ACT, ADA, APR, BRO, treatments is:
IL inhibitors are likely
CSA, CZP, DMF, ETN, Week 10/16 IXE > SEC > GUS
Fahrbach et al., 2021 [20] NMA the best short-term NA NA
GUS, INF, IXE, MTX, PASI 50/75/90/100 > UST > ADA > ETA > INF >
treatment choices.
RIS, SEC, TIL, UST RIS > BRO > TIL > CZP > APR
> DMF > MTX > CSA > ACT
Week 12/16
Week 48/56
Anti-IL 23 agents
ADA, APR, BRO, CZP, PASI 90 RIS had the most
were associated with
Shear et al., 2021 [21] NMA DMF, ETN, GUS, INF, Any AE, any SAE, favorable benefit-risk Inconclusive. Inconclusive.
low rates of safety
IXE, RIS, SEC, TIL, UST AEs leading to profile in the long term.
events.
treatment
discontinuation
ADA, ALE, APR, BAR,
RIS and IXE showed
BRI, BRO, CZP, ETN, Week 12/16/24
He et al., 2021 [22] NMA superiority for PASI 75 NA Inconclusive. NA
GUS, INF, IXE, MTX, PASI 75/90
and PASI 90.
RIS, SEC, TIL, TOF, UST
Week 10 RIS is more effective than INF
RIS is preferred over
PASI 75/90 RIS is significantly at maintaining skin clearance RIS and INF have
Almohideb M., 2021 [23] MA INF, RIS INF, and is significantly
PGA safer than INF. after treatment has been similar safety profiles.
more effective.
Any AE, SAE discontinued.
ADA, APR, BRO, CZP, Week 10/16 IXE, RIS, and BRO had IXE, RIS, BRO, GUS, SEC, and
NMA DMF, ETN, GUS, INF, PASI 75/90/100 the highest short-term NA TIL have the highest NA
Armstrong, Soliman, IXE, RIS, SEC, TIL, UST SUCRA efficacy. short-term efficacy.
Betts et al., 2021 [24] Week 48/52
ADA, BRO, ETN GUS, RIS had the highest IXE, SEC, and UST have the
PASI 75/90/100
IXE, RIS, SEC, UST long-term efficacy. highest long-term efficacy.
SUCRA
The most effective
ADA, BRO, CZP, ETN, Week 10/16
treatments were BRO
Mrowietz et al., 2021 [25] NMA GUS, INF, IXE, RIS, SEC, Absolute PASI NA Inconclusive. NA
and IXE, followed by
TIL, UST values ≤ 1, 2, 3, 5
GUS and RIS.
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410 5 of 12
Table 1. Cont.
Most Effective
Efficacy and Safety Most Effective Therapies
Included Study (2021–2023) Type of Study Evaluated Molecules Therapies Tolerance (MA) Tolerance (ChatGPT)
Outcomes (MA) (ChatGPT)
(Meta-Analyses)
IXE, SEC, UST, and GUS are
highly effective. TIL is
moderately effective. BRO is
Week 8/24
BRO, GUS, IXE, SEC, IXE is the most effective an effective treatment,
Ravasio et al., 2021 [26] NMA PASI 90 NA NA
RIS, TIL, UST option (NNT). although its safety profile is
NNT
still being evaluated. The
efficacy of RIS is still being
studied.
In reaching PASI100 and
ACR70 outcomes: IXE, SEC,
GUS, and BRO are highly
effective, UST and ADA are
SEC and IXE were the
Week 10/16 also effective, but to a slightly
ADA, BRI, BRO, CZP, treatments with the
PASI 100 lesser extent, CZP and ETN
Torres et al., 2021 [27] NMA ETN, GUS, IXE, RIS, highest probability of NA NA
Week 24 are moderately effective, BRI
SEC, TIL, UST reaching both PASI100
ACR 70 and RIS are still being
and ACR70 outcomes.
evaluated. TIL is effective in
reaching PASI100 but its
ability to reach ACR70 is still
being evaluated.
Week 16/20
PASI 75/90/100 GUS showed better GUS is more effective than GUS and ADA have
Fu and Guo, 2022 [12] MA ADA, GUS NA
PGA 0/1 efficacy than ADA. ADA. similar safety profile.
DLQI 0/1
Week 16
Week 52 RIS was superior in terms of Both RIS and UST are
RIS was more effective AE of both RIS and
Yu et al., 2022 [13] MA RIS, UST PASI 75/90/100 achieving clear or almost clear well-tolerated, with a
than UST. UST were similar.
PGA 0/1 skin (PASI 90 and PASI 100). similar incidence of AE.
AE, SAE
IL-17 and IL-23
ACT, ADA, APR, BIM,
inhibitors were highly BIM and RIS may have a
BRO, CSA, CZP, DMF, Week 16/20
Armstrong, Fahrbach et al., effective in achieving faster onset of action and
NMA ETN, GUS, INF, IXE, PASI 90/100 NA NA
2022 [14] short-term greater efficacy compared to
MTX, RIS, SEC, TIL, NNT
improvement, the other drugs.
UST
especially BIM.
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410 6 of 12
Table 1. Cont.
Most Effective
Included Study Efficacy and Safety Most Effective Therapies
Type of Study Evaluated Molecules Therapies Tolerance (MA) Tolerance (ChatGPT)
(2021–2023) Outcomes (MA) (ChatGPT)
(Meta-Analyses)
BRO and IXE had the
Some biologics that have shown
ADA, BRO, CZP, ETN, Week 12/16 lowest NNTs for
to have a relatively fast onset of
Leonardi et al., 2022 [15] NMA GUS, INF, IXE, RIS, SEC, PASI 90/100 achieving PASI NA NA
action include: IXE, SEC, GUS,
TIL, UST NNT responses at early time
TIL.
points.
BRO and IXE were not These biologics have
ADA, BRO, CZP, ETN, Week 48/52
significantly different demonstrated high levels of
GUS, INF, IXE, RIS, SEC, PASI 90/100
than RIS and GUS after long-term efficacy: IXE, SEC,
TIL, UST NNT
48/52 weeks. GUS, TIL, UST, ADA, INF.
IXE and RIS provided These biologics have
ADA, BRO, CZP, ETN, Week 52
the greatest cumulative demonstrated high levels of
Blauvelt et al., 2022 [16] NMA GUS, INF, IXE, RIS, SEC, PASI 90/100 NA NA
clinical benefits over 1 efficacy after 1 year of use: IXE,
UST AUC
year. SEC, GUS, TIL, UST, and INF.
IL-17 and IL-23
inhibitors outperformed
other biologics after 1
These treatments have
ADA, APR, BRO, CZP, year. RIS had a higher
Week 52 demonstrated high levels of
Yasmeen et al., 2022 [17] NMA ETN, GUS, INF, IXE, probability of achieving NA NA
PASI 75/90/100 efficacy after 1 year of use: IXE,
RIS, SEC, UST PASI outcomes over all
SEC, GUS, UST, and INF.
other biologics, except
BRO and GUS (no
significant difference).
Week 48–56
RIS was associated with
PASI 75/90/100
the most favorable
ADA, BIM, BRO, ETN, SUCRA IXE and BIM had
Armstrong, Soliman, long-term benefit-risk
NMA GUS, IXE, RIS, SEC, Any AE, any SAE, and lower rankings for Inconclusive. Inconclusive.
Betts et al., 2022 [18] profile. IXE and BIM
UST AEs leading to safety outcomes.
also had favorable
treatment
efficacy profiles.
discontinuation
ACR, American College of Rheumatology; ACT, acitretin; ADA, adalimumab; AE, adverse events; ALE, alefacept; APR, apremilast; AUC, area under the curve; BAR, baricitinib; BIM,
bimekizumab; BRI, briakinumab; BRO, brodalumab; CSA, ciclosporin; CZP, certolizumab pegol; DMF, dimethyl fumarate; ETN, etanercept; GUS, guselkumab; IL, interleukin; INF,
infliximab; IXE, ixekizumab; MA, meta-analysis; MTX, methotrexate; NA, Not applicable; NMA, network meta-analysis; NNT, number needed to treat; PASI, psoriasis area severity
index; RIS, risankizumab; SAE, serious adverse events; SEC, secukinumab; SUCRA, surface under the cumulative ranking curve; TIL, tildrakizumab; TOF, tofacitinib; UST, ustekinumab.
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410 7 of 12
Table 2. Summary of efficacy and safety comparisons between the conclusions of the included studies
and ChatGPT’s answers.
The safety of the molecules was compared in two MAs [13,23] and two NMAs [18,21].
Although one meta-analysis indicated that risankizumab was better tolerated than in-
fliximab, ChatGPT’s output was rated as different, as the AI estimated that these two
drugs had a similar safety profile. Another meta-analysis showed that risankizumab had a
safety profile similar to that of ustekinumab, and the AI’s output was identical. Although
two NMAs also showed that anti–IL23 and certain anti-IL17 biologics had lower rates
of safety events, the AI’s answers were inconclusive, as ChatGPT could not specifically
differentiate the evaluated drugs in terms of safety.
We also noted, in one query, that ChatGPT’s answers contained obvious mistakes,
such as presenting infliximab (an anti-TNFα drug) and secukinumab (an anti-IL17 drug) as
biologics targeting IL-12 and IL-23, and guselkumab, risankizumab, and tildrakizumab (all
anti-IL23 drugs) as anti-IL17A biologics [25]. However, an accurate response was given
when the question was rephrased.
More importantly, the whole assessment was completed in less than a few hours over
3 weeks, representing huge time savings compared to the months it usually takes to conduct
traditional MAs/NMAs.
4. Discussion
The MAs/NMAs on anti-psoriatic drugs combine the results of multiple studies in
order to provide a more robust estimate of the relative efficacy of different treatments and
are usually generated by experts in the field of psoriasis. However, they require complex
statistical techniques and a significant amount of time to produce [4] and may be affected
by quality issues. The capacity of an AI to aggregate huge volumes of information by
automatically extracting the written text of medical papers and converting the text into a
more efficient, structured set of data is emerging as particularly interesting for processing
the amount of information needed to generate MAs [7–9].
Although some consistency in efficacy rankings was observed for certain drugs across
the MAs/NMAs, the rankings for other drugs varied by indirect comparisons. The factors
potentially contributing to the heterogeneity of the results of the selected MAs/NMAs
include the use of different methodologies for statistical analyses, the variation in drug
dosing and treatment duration, the difference in the number and type of evaluated drugs,
and the outcome definitions. Many biases may impair the reliability of the conclusions of
MAs, and large randomized controlled trials do not always confirm the results of prior
MAs [40].
The acceptability and coherence of ChatGPT’s answers could be rated as adequate for
most queries by two experts in the field of psoriasis. Although substantial heterogeneity
could be evidenced across the MAs/NMAs, the ranking by ChatGPT of the investigated
drugs, with respect to their efficacy, was generally comparable to those of the selected
studies. When fewer (three) drugs were compared, ChatGPT’s conclusions were identical
to those of the MAs/NMAs. It is worth noting that this was valid for MAs published in
2021 or after because ChatGPT’s knowledge cut-off is 2021 [11].
There were, however, some discrepancies between the conclusions of the NMAs and
the answers of ChatGPT when several molecules were compared. For instance, although for
the majority of the recently published NMAs, ixekizumab and risankizumab [13,15–18,21]
outperformed most biologics in the long-term, secukinumab and guselkumab sometimes
ranked as high as ixekizumab and risankizumab in some of ChatGPT’s answers. The choice
of reformulating queries or sending them at another timeframe to obtain more detailed
answers, although debatable, was deliberate, as the comparisons would have been made
impossible if we selected only vague, general outputs.
Despite these mistakes, it appears both exciting and frightening that with an AI-based
system, coherent answers to complex questions can be easily obtained within seconds. In
addition to its ease and speed of getting results, ChatGPT may be less affected by human
bias and potential conflicts of interest than MAs/NMAs in the interpretation of data. The
other strengths of ChatGPT are that it might provide more up-to-date information (there
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410 9 of 12
are often significant lag times before the publication of MAs) [41], and it might process
larger amounts of data from a variety of sources.
ChatGPT relies on open-access data and has no access to the paid content of subscription-
based scientific journals. The research community has also recognized a need to incorporate
the “grey literature” into MAs to reduce the risks of publication bias (the selective publica-
tion of studies based on their results) and reporting bias (selective reporting of study results
based on statistical significance) [42]. There is no standard definition of grey literature, but
it generally refers to the information obtained from sources other than published, peer-
reviewed articles, such as conference proceedings, theses and dissertations, clinical trial
registries, adverse events databases, government agency databases (e.g., the US Food and
Drug Administration) and documents, unpublished industry data, and online websites,
among others. Incorporating grey literature may help to spread the studies with null or
negative results that might not otherwise be disseminated [42].
However, in opposition to MAs/NMAs, ChatGPT and other AI are (still) unable to
provide a statistical analysis with the corresponding confidence intervals. AI is also (still)
unable to address the biases and limitations in individual studies. As ChatGPT’s cut-off
knowledge is 2021, its AI may also not have access to the most recent information that has
been published or has occurred after that date [11]. Another limitation of ChatGPT is that it
lacks transparency concerning the data used to provide answers, as no references are cited
in ChatGPT’s answers. There is also the possibility that ChatGPT’s answers may depend
on the timeframe they are gathered, which can invalidate the reliability of a dataset. Some
of the limitations inherent in MAs (data from heterogeneous sources, publication biases,
quality of the source data, etc.) may also be applicable to the data generated by AI. Finally,
the large amount of data does not necessarily eliminate sources of systematic error and
may even amplify them.
There may also be fears about any reliance on large language models for scientific
thinking, as these models are trained on past information, whereas social or scientific
progress can often come from thinking or being open to thinking differently from the
past. In addition, the widespread use of chatbots such as ChatGPT raises a range of
ethical concerns that need to be critically examined (i.e., bias and misinformation, privacy,
accountability and liability, manipulation, and malicious use) [43].
To our knowledge, there has so far been no similar attempt to compare the results of
MAs/NMAs and the information gathered from ChatGPT. Recently, Anghelescu et al. [44]
presented a comparison between a systematic literature review using the PRISMA
method—performed by human intelligence—and ChatGPT in order to gather current
information on the use of Actovegin in ischemic stroke. They found that the AI-based
chatbot could not critically evaluate the quality of evidence, provide a comprehensive
analysis of the literature, or provide actual and beyond-question data. On the one hand,
they rated the ChatGPT answers as coherent and found that ChatGPT could provide biblio-
graphic resources they could not find either within their standardized literature search or in
open sources.
There are several limitations to our study. The sources of information used by language
models like ChatGPT are vast and diverse, encompassing a wide range of data, including
scientific studies, articles, books, and online sources. On the contrary, the sources used
in MAs are usually more limited and specific, focusing on peer-reviewed studies and
controlled trials that meet certain inclusion criteria, and it is so far impossible to confirm
that the results of MAs are more reliable than those of an AI. Another major limitation in
the interpretation of our data is that it is unknown to what extent, among the variety of
sources analyzed by ChatGPT, the results and conclusions of the investigated MAs/NMAs
have been used, especially when considering that GPT-3.5 is a series of models that was
trained on a blend of text and code from before Q4 2021 [10,11]. Due to the potential overlap
between the investigated MAs/NMAs, it is difficult to conclude whether ChatGPT was
able to summarize these studies or simply output the information it was trained on.
J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 5410 10 of 12
While MAs and NMAs are usually regarded as one of the best tools to compare drug
efficacy, they can be affected by a number of biases mainly because they are generated
by humans. Besides, collecting data and evaluating the results of MAs/NMAs is often a
long and arduous process. It is then quite disconcerting to receive an AI-based output in
seconds that would take a human team years to develop and whose answers are more or
less comparable to the conclusions of MAs/NMAs regarding the ranking of drug efficacy
in the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. However, at this point, it would be
hazardous to rely solely on an AI to gather information since some mistakes from ChatGPT
were found in this study, such as wrongly attributing certain drug characteristics or some-
times providing different rankings in terms of drug safety. Moreover, MAs/NMAs are
scientific methods using statistical analyses, whereas an AI can be continuously trained to
avoid this kind of mistake, and a language model such as ChatGPT could have the potential
to be a fast and complementary method for processing the large volumes of data necessary
to generate or verify the results of MAs/NMAs. However, since ChatGPT has so far had
limitations in providing an accurate and complete overview of the available evidence, this
technology should be applied under rigorous human supervision and control. The potential
of other AI techniques or other pre-trained language models, such as BERT (bidirectional
encoder representations from transformers) to simplify the process of summarizing data
from the medical domain requires further investigation.
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