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Introduction of Probability

Meaning, Terminology, Formula, Types, Event, Coin Toss Probability, Dice Roll
Probability& Probability of Drawing Cards.

Probability
Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of an event. There are many real-life situations in which we may
have to predict the outcome of an event. We may be sure or not sure of the results of an event. In such cases,
we say that there is a probability of this event to occur or not occur. Probability generally has great applications
in games, in business to make probability-based predictions, and also probability has extensive applications in
this new area of artificial intelligence.

The probability of an event can be calculated by probability formula by simply dividing the favorable number of
outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. The value of the probability of an event to happen can lie
between 0 and 1 because the favorable number of outcomes can never cross the total number of outcomes.
Also, the favorable number of outcomes cannot be negative. Let us discuss the basics of probability in detail in
the following sections.

What is Probability?
Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes of
an event. For an experiment having 'n' number of outcomes, the number of favorable outcomes can be
denoted by x. The formula to calculate the probability of an event is as follows.

Probability(Event)=Favorable Outcomes/ Total Outcomes = x/n

Let us check a simple application of probability to understand it better. Suppose we have to predict about the
happening of rain or not. The answer to this question is either "Yes" or "No". There is a likelihood to rain or not
rain. Here we can apply probability. Probability is used to predict the outcomes for the tossing of coins, rolling
of dice, or drawing a card from a pack of playing cards.

The probability is classified into theoretical probability and experimental probability.

Terminology of Probability Theory

The following terms in probability help in a better understanding of the concepts of probability.

Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted to produce an outcome is called an experiment.

Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of an experiment together constitute a sample space. For example,
the sample space of tossing a coin is head and tail.

Favorable Outcome: An event that has produced the desired result or expected event is called a favorable
outcome. For example, when we roll two dice, the possible/favorable outcomes of getting the sum of numbers
on the two dice as 4 are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).

Trial: A trial denotes doing a random experiment.

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Random Experiment: An experiment that has a well-defined set of outcomes is called a random experiment.
For example, when we toss a coin, we know that we would get ahead or tail, but we are not sure which one will
appear.

Event: The total number of outcomes of a random experiment is called an event.

Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same chances or probability of occurring are called equally likely
events. The outcome of one event is independent of the other. For example, when we toss a coin, there are
equal chances of getting a head or a tail.

Exhaustive Events: When the set of all outcomes of an experiment is equal to the sample space, we call it an
exhaustive event.

Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot happen simultaneously are called mutually exclusive events.
For example, the climate can be either hot or cold. We cannot experience the same weather simultaneously.

Probability Formula
The probability formula defines the likelihood of the happening of an event. It is the ratio of favorable outcomes
to the total favorable outcomes. The probability formula can be expressed as,

probability formula
P(A) = Number of favourable outcomes to A/ Total number of possible outcomes where,

● P(B) is the probability of an event 'B'.

● n(B) is the number of favorable outcomes of an event 'B'.
● n(S) is the total number of events occurring in a sample space.

Different Probability Formulas

Probability formula with addition rule: Whenever an event is the union of two other events, say A and B, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)
Probability formula with the complementary rule: Whenever an event is the complement of another event,
specifically, if A is an event, then P(not A) = 1 - P(A) or P(A') = 1 - P(A). P(A) + P(A′) = 1.

Probability formula with the conditional rule: When event A is already known to have occurred and the
probability of event B is desired, then P(B, given A) = P(A and B), P(A, given
B). It can be vice versa in the case of event B. P(B ∣A) =
P(A∩B)/P(A)
Probability formula with multiplication rule: Whenever an event is the intersection of two other events, that
is, events A and B need to occur simultaneously. Then P(A and B) =
P(A)⋅P(B).
P(A∩B) = P(A)⋅P(B∣A)
Example: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a dice is rolled by using the probability
formula.
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Solution To find:
Probability of getting a number less than 5
Given: Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Getting a number less than 5 = {1,2,3,4}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
n(A) = 4
Using Probability Formula, P(A) =
(n(A))/(n(s)) p(A) = 4/6 m = 2/3

Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5 is 2/3.

Types of Probability
There can be different perspectives or types of probabilities based on the nature of the outcome or the
approach followed while finding the probability of an event happening. The four types of
probabilities are,

● Classical Probability
● Empirical Probability
● Subjective Probability
● Axiomatic Probability

Classical Probability
Classical probability, often referred to as the "priori" or "theoretical probability", states that in an experiment
where there are B equally likely outcomes, and event X has exactly A of these outcomes, then the probability of
X is A/B, or P(X) = A/B. For example, when a fair die is rolled, there are six possible outcomes that are equally
likely. That means, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling each number on the die.

Empirical Probability
The empirical probability or the experimental perspective evaluates probability through thought experiments.
For example, if a weighted die is rolled, such that we don't know which side has the weight, then we can get an
idea for the probability of each outcome by rolling the die number of times and calculating the proportion of
times the die gives that outcome and thus find the probability of that outcome.

Subjective Probability
Subjective probability considers an individual's own belief of an event occurring. For example, the probability of
a particular team winning a football match on a fan's opinion is more dependent upon their own belief and
feeling and not on a formal mathematical calculation.

Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by Kolmogorov are applied to all the types. The chances of
occurrence or non-occurrence of any event can be quantified by the applications of these axioms, given as,

● The smallest possible probability is zero, and the largest is one.

● An event that is certain has a probability equal to one.
● Any two mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously, while the union of events says only
one of them can occur.
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Finding the Probability of an Event

In an experiment, the probability of an event is the possibility of that event occurring. The probability of any
event is a value between (and including) "0" and "1".

Events in Probability
In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment or a subset of the sample space.

If P(E) represents the probability of an event E, then, we have,

● P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event.

● P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.

● 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
Suppose, we are given two events, "A" and "B", then the probability of event A, P(A) > P(B) if and only if event
"A" is more likely to occur than the event "B". Sample space(S) is the set of all of the possible outcomes of an
experiment and n(S) represents the number of outcomes in the sample space.

P(E) = n(E)/n(S)

P(E’) = (n(S) - n(E))/n(S) = 1 - (n(E)/n(S))

E’ represents that the event will not occur.

Therefore, now we can also conclude that, P(E) + P(E’) = 1

Coin Toss Probability

Let us now look into the probability of tossing a coin. Quite often in games like cricket, for making a decision as
to who would bowl or bat first, we sometimes use the tossing of a coin and decide based on the outcome of the
toss. Let us check as to how we can use the concept of probability in the tossing of a single coin. Further, we
shall also look into the tossing of two and three coming respectively.

Tossing a Coin
A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head, and a tail. The concept of probability which is the ratio of
favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes can be used to find the probability of getting the head and
the probability of getting a tail.

Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample Space = {H, T}; H: Head, T: Tail

● P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2

● P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = ½

Tossing Two Coins

In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four outcomes. The probability formula can be used to
find the probability of two heads, one head, no head, and a similar probability can be calculated for the number
of tails. The probability calculations for the two heads are as follows.

Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
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● P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4

● P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
● P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4

Tossing Three Coins

The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins simultaneously is equal to 23 = 8. For these outcomes,
we can find the probability of getting one head, two heads, three heads, and no head. A similar probability can
also be calculated for the number of tails.

Total number of outcomes = 23 = 8 Sample Space = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T, H), (T, H, H), (T,
T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}

● P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8

● P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one head/Total Outcomes = 3/8
● P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads /Total Outcomes = 3/8
● P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8

Dice Roll Probability

Many games use dice to decide the moves of players across the games. A dice has six possible outcomes and
the outcomes of a dice is a game of chance and can be obtained by using the concepts of probability. Some
games also use two dice, and there are numerous probabilities that can be calculated for outcomes using two
dice. Let us now check the outcomes, their probabilities for one dice and two dice respectively.

Rolling One Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall
compute the following few probabilities to help in better understanding the concept of probability on rolling one
dice.

● P(Even Number) = Number of even number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2

● P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
● P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2

Rolling Two Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 6² = 36. The following image shows the sample space of 36
outcomes on rolling two dice.

Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice. The probabilities are as follows.

● Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6

● Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice = 11/36
● Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6

As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6 possibilities. When we roll two dice, there are 36 possibilities.
When we roll 3 dice we get 216 possibilities. So a general formula to represent the number of outcomes on
rolling 'n' dice is 6^n.
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Probability of Drawing Cards

A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into four suits of clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades. Each of the
clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades have 13 cards each, which sum up to 52. Now let us discuss the
probability of drawing cards from a pack. The symbols on the cards are shown below. Spades and clubs are
black cards. Hearts and diamonds are red cards.

The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, king. In these, the jack, the queen, and
the king are called face cards. We can understand the card probability from the following examples.

● The probability of drawing a black card is P(Black card) = 26/52 = 1/2

● The probability of drawing a hearts card is P(Hearts) = 13/52 = 1/4
● The probability of drawing a face card is P(Face card) = 12/52 = 3/13
● The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P(4) = 4/52 = 1/13
● The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P(4 Red) = 2/52 = 1/26

Prepared By:

GRAZELL MAE DOBLON

Practice Teacher