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The optimum growing temperature for luxury priced Cabernet Sauvignon sits at
17.5±1.5° C (63.5º±2.7° F), but climatologists project that most current
California wine-growing regions will exceed 19° C, based on measurements
taken from 1981 to 2010. On June 7, 2018 a symposium in Sonoma called,
“Bordeaux in America: The Climate Disruption,” sponsored by Enologix, featured
climate experts discussing their predictions with vintners. While the symposium
was focused on the effects of climate change on luxury Cabernet in Napa and
Sonoma, the underlying science and temperature trends contain dire news for
wine-growing at large.

The most startling and sobering fact was that within 30 years (the normal life
span of a vineyard planted today), many current Napa vineyard locations will be
too warm for some Bordeaux varieties to scale luxury-priced wines. Climate
change is no longer something abstract affecting the future. Anyone planting or
replanting a vineyard today should be taking climate warming trends and
optimum grape-growing temperatures into account.

Four academics and Doug McKesson, general manager at Enologix, presented

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Scripps Institute; Greg Jones, professor and climatologist, Linfield College;
Daniel Sumner, director, UCD Agricultural Issues Center; and Elizabeth
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23 minutes ago | Cloverdale, Ca
For concision’s sake I have condensed the material from the day-long
symposium into three parts. The first section addresses what the climate is Bottling Line Lead - Pm Shift, R
doing; the second, the effect this warming is having on the vines and wines; and 3 hours ago | Healdsburg, Ca

the last, strategies to mitigate the effects.

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Part 1: Climate Warming
All speakers agreed that the planet is warming and that the increased Maintenance Manager, Rack &
greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, that cause the warming are proven to be from 3 hours ago | Healdsburg, Ca

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additional increases of 4° F to 5° F by the mid-21st century. Disturbingly, Executive Director - Red Moun
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to 5° F warmer than the 100-year average 1895-2017.3 Projected temperatures
will rise 6° F (3.3° C) by 2060 (FIGURE 1).
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Figure 1

Climatologists use two CO2 level scenarios for their projections—a moderate
increase and a high increase. Until mid-century, both moderate CO2 and high
CO2 increases yielded the same projected temperatures for California. After
mid-century, if high CO2 accumulation proves true, temperatures will sharply
increase.2

In California coastal vineyards the nighttime minimums have increased more

than the daytime maximums due to warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean. There
has also been more variation in daytime than nighttime temperatures. By mid-
century the hottest days will be 4° F to 5° F hotter with more days above 95° F.
The frequency, duration and intensity of heat events will increase. Rainfall will
become more variable with an increased frequency of drought years. This
increase in drought years will further drive up demand for water resources,
which will already be under pressure from rising average heat. Intense winter
storms will become more intense.2

Climate warming has effects on growth, productivity, and quality. Warmer

dormant periods make risk of freeze damage greater. Earlier budbreak and
growth expose the vines to greater risk of frost. Earlier flowering can lead to
greater chances of rainfall damage. Veraison will be earlier when heat stresses
are greater. At harvest lower ranges of diurnal temperatures will lead to sugar
ripeness before tannin and color ripeness. All phenological stages5 shift earlier
in response to warming, and the phases themselves are condensed.3 Inevitably,
there will be flavor changes in the wine as the vines respond.

Climate is one of the key variables that contribute to terroir. As the climate
changes, so too will terroir. Plant phenology is a good lens to observe these
changes. Phenological records of winegrapes have been kept in France since the
1300s. These records clearly show that as the planet has warmed in the past
40 years, there has been a trend towards earlier harvests—a shortening of the
phenological phases that lead to ripeness (FIGURE 2). While there was
variability in harvest dates of individual vintages throughout the record, there
has been a 0-day shortening of the growing season on average since 1980.4

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Climatologists Say Cabernet's Days as King in Napa are Numbered 5/6/24, 8:33 PM

Figure 2

Grapevines have a wide adaptability to temperature between varieties. You have

cold climate varietals, such as Pinot Noir, and varietals, like Grenache, which will
thrive under much warmer conditions. Within each varietal, however, you have a
narrow range of temperatures where quality wine is possible. This is why
Grenache is not found in Burgundy, and Pinot Noir is not planted in
Chateauneuf-du-Pape.

Average Growing Season Temperature (GST) is becoming the standard metric

for discussion of climate effects on wine-growing. There are four broad
categories of heat ranges that are suitable for quality wine—Cool, 55.4° F to 59°
F (13° C to 15° C); Intermediate, 59° F to 62.6° F (15° C to 17° C); Warm, 62.6° F
to 66.2° F (17° C to 19° C) and Hot, above 66.2° F. Varieties vary in the range of
temperatures that are successful for them. Pinot Noir has one of the narrowest
ranges at roughly 3.5° F (2° C) while others like Cabernet Sauvignon are
somewhat wider at 5.5° F (3° C) (FIGURE 3).

Here is the crux of the problem for any region that has established its reputation
based on the interaction of its terroir with a specific variety. Take Cabernet and
Napa Valley, as an example. Cabernet has a range of 60.8° F to 66.2° F (16° C to
19° C) in which it will produce quality wine. In St. Helena, the average GST for
1971-2000 was 66° F (18.9° C)—very near the high-end of the range for
Cabernet. Bordeaux, in contrast, had an average GST of 61.7° F (16.5° C) for
1950-2000, which is near the low end of the optimum range.1,3 Warming has
occurred in both areas since 2000, and that has likely benefited Bordeaux, but
not Napa.

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Climatologists Say Cabernet's Days as King in Napa are Numbered 5/6/24, 8:33 PM

Figure 3 (source, Greg Jones)

While there is a range of increases predicted for upcoming decades—even the

most conservative predict increases that will raise Napa GST out of the warm
range and into the hot range by the mid-21st century—this hot range is not
compatible with luxury-priced Cabernet. The direst forecasts based on higher
accumulation of CO2 would make Napa Valley more compatible with table
grapes than winegrapes by century’s end.

Other appellations besides Napa Valley are at equal risk. Continental climates,
in particular, such as central France and Germany, will see significant warming.
Terroirs that have grown the same varieties for many centuries will no longer
find them suitable.

Part 3: Mitigation
One reaction to a warming climate will be a general movement of new wine-
growing in higher latitudes. It should be kept in mind that because of their
patterns of day length, Northern latitudes also cause compression of
phenological phases and will make wines dissimilar to those grown in middle
latitudes. Within appellations, movement towards higher elevations will help—
obviously not an option in all areas.

In the case of coastal locations, moving closer to the ocean could help. Patterns
of fog and coastal moisture will need to be considered before making such a
decision. While relocation may sound drastic to a current vineyard or winery,
this will inevitably happen. As Dr. Wolkovich so vividly put it, “Climate change is
a wave you must ride or be swept away by.”

For those who do not wish to relocate or cannot, there are alternative solutions.
Changing varieties or proportions of blends is less expensive than changing
location. As previously noted, there is a wide range of heat tolerance between
grape varieties. In the case of a Bordeaux style blend, this may involve lowering
or eliminating the less heat-tolerant Merlot, and increasing portions of Malbec
and Petite Verdot. Rhône blends can shift to the more heat-tolerant Grenache
from Syrah-based blends. Pinot Noir and Chardonnay usually made as single
varieties do not offer the same flexibility.

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Climatologists Say Cabernet's Days as King in Napa are Numbered 5/6/24, 8:33 PM

Unfortunately, most of the “International” varieties, which are currently widely

planted around the globe, originated in France and are in the range of cold- to
warm-tolerant. They will not be a big part of the longer term solutions. Varieties
found in southern Italy, Greece and Spain are the likeliest candidates for
planting in warming terroirs. These varieties have both longer phenological
cycles and the ability to retain acidity and color in hot conditions. They, of
course, pose a marketing challenge in a sales world dominated by a dozen or so
largely French varieties.4

There will be existing growing areas that become so hot that they will be
outside of the range of winegrowing entirely—not even the broad range of Vitus
vinifera heat adaptability will offset climate change in every area. Some
appellations will be abandoned.

Genetic adaptations, through traditional plant breeding and the use of GMOs to
increase heat and drought tolerance, are an avenue that is worth pursuing in
both scion and rootstock development3. Parts of society and the market have
issues with genetic solutions, but hopefully this will change.

Myriad shorter term and temporary solutions exist and will be applied.
Landscape potential, such as aspect to the sun and row orientation to protect
fruit zones from direct solar, help. Training, trellising and application of shading
materials are also effective. Choice of rootstock for drought tolerance and water
management is important. The use of micro sprinklers and other forms of
irrigation for short-term temperature control during “heat storms” are already in
routine use for some fruit crops and should be considered.

These short-term solutions will be most effective in areas that are currently at
the cool end of the range for the variety grown. Pinot Noir in parts of Oregon
and the coolest California locations fall into this category. If you are already at
the warmer edge of climate for your variety, moving or replanting makes more
sense. Pinot Noir in parts of the Russian River fall into this category. WBM

References

1 According to Doug McKesson, general manager, Enologix

2 According to Dan Cayan, research meteorologist, Scripps Institute

3 According to Greg Jones, professor and climatologist, Linfield College

4 According to Elizabeth Wolkovich, University of British Columbia and Harvard University

5 Phenology is the study of the annual timing of stages of development and growth in plants. It is an indicator of how they are

responding to their environment.

Sidebar: New Program to Support Climate-Smart Agriculture

A new $1.1 million program has been designed to spur climate-smart

agricultural practices in 10 California counties. The program is a partnership
between the California Department of Food and Agriculture and University of
California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources.

Under the agreement, 10 new UC Cooperative Extension community education

specialists will be hired for a year to guide farmers and ranchers apply for cost-
sharing grants to improve irrigation systems, soil health and set up alternative
manure management programs.

The University of California employees will be assigned to 10 counties:

Mendocino, Glenn, Yolo, San Joaquin, Merced, Kern, Imperial, San Diego, San
Luis Obispo and Santa Cruz counties.

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Climatologists Say Cabernet's Days as King in Napa are Numbered 5/6/24, 8:33 PM

UC Cooperative Extension advisors will mentor the new educators and conduct
research on sustainable farming and ranching practices.

Grape growers may primarily benefit from the State Water Efficiency and
Enhancement Program and the Healthy Soils Program, said Doug Parker,
director of the UC California Institute for Water Resources.
The community education specialists will also organize workshops on
sustainable farming practices and advise farmers and ranchers on best
management practices such as water and energy saving measures.
Glenda Humiston, vice president of UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, and
Karen Ross, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture
signed a memorandum of understanding on Oct. 26.

“Agriculture is an important part of the climate solution,” Ross said in a written

statement. “This funding enables CDFA and UC ANR to partner with farmers to
scale-up climate smart agricultural practices.”
The program is funded through the California Strategic Growth Council.
“Farmers and ranchers are key to carbon sequestration and a sustainable
California,” said Ken Alex, chair of the Strategic Growth Council. “The Strategic
Growth Council is pleased to fund this partnership for smart agriculture
practices.”

For information on the UC ANR, check: https://ucanr.edu/

Information on the State Water Efficiency and Enhancement Program and the
Healthy Soils Program are available at: www.cdfa.ca.gov/oefi/healthysoils/ For
information on the Alternative Manure Management Program, check:
https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/oefi/AMMP/

Companies mentioned in this article:

Enologix
Sonoma, CA
enologix.com

Enologix is the standard quality metric for the California wine industry. Enologix
comes with software for tracking vineyards, blends and bottles. Our precise
analytical models predict future wine quality before conducting winemaking
operations. learn more

More from Enologix

Enologix Climate Change Model Predicts Harvest Dates

Vendor News – Oct 3, 2016

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