Climate change impact on the coastal areas of

India: A Review
– SumitPanja,Junior Research Fellow (UGC),
Department of Geography,Asutosh College
Anirban Kundu, Junior Research Fellow (WBDSTBT),
Department of Geography,Asutosh College
Dr. Sayani Mukhopadhyay, Associate Professor,
Department of Geography,Asutosh College

addition in natural climate variability for a

long period.
In their 6th Assessment Report (AR6) 2021,
IPCC clearly mentioned that Carbon dioxide
(CO2) is the main driver of climate change,
(AR6), since 2011 (measurement report
AR5), concentrations have continued to
increase and it reached 410 ppm for CO2,
1866 ppb for methane (CH4), and 332 ppb
for nitrous oxide (N2O) annually in 2019
which resulted in serious global warming. In
Figure 2: Changes in global surface temperature
relative to 1850-1900; source: IPCC AR6, 2021.
the same report (AR6) IPCC has mentioned
that each of the last four decades has been
1. Introduction: successively warmer than any other decades
since 1850, and global surface temperature
Indian coastline runs forabout 7516km. and
of last two decades (2001-2020) of 21st
is inhabited by densely populated human
century was 0.99 °C higher than 1850-1900.
agglomeration, climate change and climate
variability induced impact posed alarming This incontrovertible change in climate is
challenges to this ecosystem making them not only changing the land and sea surface
more vulnerable and risk prone.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change
(IPCC), defined climate change as a change
in the long term state of the climate that can
be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by
changes in the mean and/or the variability of
its properties. In another definition, the
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2011), refers to
climate change as, a climate change that is
directly or indirectly attributed by human
activity resulting in an alteration in global Figure 1: summer monsoon rainfall anomaly; source:
atmospheric composition and that is an Krishnan et al., 2020

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DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
 temperature and raising the sea level, but and Western Ghats, and projected (CMIP5)
also leads to changes in the frequency, an increase in mean and variability of
intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing monsoon rainfall by the end of the century.
of extreme weather and climate events The overall decrease in monsoon rainfall led
(IPCC, 2021; 2012). The world is already to an increase in the frequency and spatial
facing the frequent and intense occurrence extent of drought from 1951 to 2016,
of extreme climatic events and it's expected particularly over central India, southwest
to be more devastating in the coming 20 or coast, southern peninsula and north-eastern
30 years (IPCC, 2021). The worst sufferer India. Increased variability of monsoon
from this climate change and climate rainfall, and increased water vapour demand
change-induced extremes will be the coastal in a warmer atmosphere, climate model
areas (IPCC, 2007). projected that (RCP805), and India will be
one of them.
Coastal areas are experiencing the adverse
impact of sea-level rise due to global 2020).
warming. A rise in global mean sea-level by
0.20 m is noticed between 1901 and 2018.
The average rate of sea-level rise was 1.3
mm/yr between 1901 and 1971, increasing
to 1.9 mm/yr between 1971 and 2006.
Currently, the rate is increasing to 3.7 mm/yr
between 2006 and 2018 which is very
concerning for the coastal areas(IPCC,
2021). Not only that coasts are also exposed
to a high risk of sea-level rise induced
coastal erosion and devastating tropical
Figure 3: Projected temperature anomaly over India;
Source: Krishnan et al., 2020)
cyclones. According to IPCC 4th
Assessment Report (AR4) 2007, the impact 2. Climate Change and Indian Scenario:
of such climate-induced changes will be
more damaging in the coasts of developing Considering climate change as one of the
countries due to its high population pressure most important and concerning issues of the
and low adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007), nation, the Ministry of Earth Science
intensity and spatial extent of drought will (MoES), Government of India have
increase at the end of the 21st century. The published a report in 2020, titled
report also indicates that warming of the "Assessment of Climate Change over the
Indian Ocean, sea-level rise and increasing Indian Region". The report (Krishnan et al.,
intensity of tropical cyclones will devastate 2020) mentioned that the average
the low-lying coastal areas. Not only that, temperature of India has risen by 0.7° C
climate change-induced shoreline change, during 1901 -2018, and projected (RCP8.5)
inundation due to storm surge, and coastal rise by 4.4° C by the end of the 21st century.
flooding will definitely distress the The The same report has also found that the
same report has also found that the rainfall rainfall of summer monsoon (June –
of summer monsoon (June – September) has September) has declined by 6% from 1951
declined by 6% from 1951 to 2015 with a toand projected (RCP8.5) rise by 4.4° C by
notable decline over the Indo-Gangetic plain the end of the 21st century. The same report
has also found that the rainfall of summer

THE EARTH TALK: CHANGING PERSPECTIVES Page 35

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DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
 increase in mean and variability of monsoon to 4.4% for the east coast and 6%–8% for the
rainfall by the end of the century. The west coast. Another work of (Geethalakshmi
overall decrease in monsoon rainfall led to et al., (2016) indicate that the number of
an increase in the frequency and spatial rainy days is projected to be decreased by 1-
extent of drought from 1951 to 2016, 5 days, but the intensity of rainfall is
particularly over central India, southwest expected to increase between 1-4 mm/day
coast, southern peninsula and north-eastern for the east coast.
India. Increased variability of monsoon
3.2. Trend of tropical cyclones:
rainfall, and increased water vapour demand
in a warmer atmosphere, climate model As per the recent reports and literature, the
projected that (RCP805), intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones in the North
spatial extent of drought will increase at the Indian Ocean (NIO) basin has been
end of the 21st century. The report also decreased since 1951-2018 (Krishnan et al.,
indicates that warming of the Indian Ocean, 2020; Mohapatra& Vijay Kumar, 2017). But
sea-level rise and increasing intensity of on the contrary, the very severe cyclonic
tropical cyclones will devastate the low- storms (VSCSs) during the post-monsoon
lying coastal areas. Not only that, climate season has been increased significantly
change-induced shoreline change, during the last two decades (Krishnan et al.,
inundation due to storm surge, and coastal 2020; Vissa et al., 2013). The climate
flooding will definitely distress the coastal models have also projected that the intensity
population and hamper the management of of tropical cyclones will be increased in the
the coastal zones (Krishnamurthy et al., coming decades. Additionally, the level of
2014; Rajasree et al., 2016; Rao, Upadhaya, storm surge water is expected to rise and
Ali, et al., 2020). Thus it's a very crucial time inundate the low lying coast and deltaic
to review the trend and consequences of regions, especially the eastern coast of the
climate change on the Indian coasts and find country (Rao, Upadhaya, Pandey, et al.,
a way out to manage the situation. 2020).
3. Climate Change and Indian Coasts:

3.1. Change in temperature and

precipitation:

In a study, Gangwar (2013) pointed out that,

on the eastern coast the annual mean
temperature is likely to increase from 28.7±
0.6°C to 29.3±0.7°C and on the west coast
the rise is likely to 26.8±0.4°C to
27.5±0.4°C in the 2030s.In the case of
rainfall, the eastern coast is likely to range Figure 4: Trend of Cyclonic Storms (CS) and Severe
between 858±85.8mm to 1280± 204.8mm, Cyclonic Storms (SCS) in Bay of Bengal (BOB) and
and on the west coast, it could be range Arabian Sea (AS); Source: IMD
between 935±185.33mm to 1794±247mm in 3.3. Sea Level Rise:
the 2030s in respect to 1970 (Banerjee et al.,
Analysis from historical records has
2018; Gangwar, 2013). That's mean the
pertinently shown a mere increase of 1 - 2
increase is estimated to range between 0.2%
mm. of sea level per year all over the world
in the current

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DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
 east coast. Ranger et al. (2011) have
estimated severe flooding in Mumbai (as
more than double of 2005 flood event) by
2080. Therefore, a proper framework for
risk analysis as well as mitigation strategies
is highly needed to protect the coastal areas
and their peoples in near future.

3.4. Rise in Sea Surface Temperature

Figure 5: Annual-mean sea-level and the linear fit for (SST) over the Indian Ocean:
selected tide-gauge stations in the North Indian
Ocean [Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007)] Globally the ocean temperature has
[*vertical axis shows sea level in mm.]
in the current century and global warming increased by almost 93% from 1950. In the
has been adroitly considered to be the most case of the Indian Ocean, the surface, as well
influencing factor. For the Indian coast, as the subsurface layer, has increased more
there is no exception to this. A study by than the global average. Different studies
Unnikrishnan et al. (2006) has shown the have shown that the SST of the Indian Ocean
mean sea level in Mumbai, Kochi and has increased 2 -3 times more than the
Vishakhapatnam are projected to rise by tropical Pacific which has led to an increased
almost 0.78, 1.14 and 0.75 mm./year in the warm pool of water mass in the Indian
recent future. Further, in an updated work of Ocean. This increase in SST has resulted in
the previous study, Unnikrishnan and the weakening of the Hadley Cell
Shankar (2007) found that Diamond (responsible for the South-Western
Harbour (located in Kolkata), one of the monsoonal rain in India) causing a shear
important tide gauge stations of the east decrease in monsoonal rainfall in the Indian
Indian coast shows a statistically significant subcontinent. The Radiative forcing due to
increase in sea level at a rate of 5.74 mm./yr. increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) have
Although the greater pace of subsidence (4 been considered to be the most important
mm./yr) of the Ganga Delta is one of the factor behind such an increase (Gnanaseelan
important factors behind this overwhelming et al., 2017). A study by Dinesh Kumar et al.
sea level rise, climate change is also a bigger (2016) has suggested that SST in both the
issue. Even the average rise in sea level is Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea basin has
more pronounced in the case of the East increased after 1940. As a result of this, the
Indian coast (1.353 mm./year) than that of coastal areas are experiencing a greater
the West Coast (0.372 mm./year) (Sudha degree of temperature and humidity with a
Rani et al., 2017). However, almost all lesser degree of monsoonal rain. A recent
studies have clearly demonstrated that the report
trend in the sea level of the North Indian (https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/clim
Ocean resembles the global sea level ate-change/blame-climate-change-for-a-
estimate reported in the 3rd Assessment sweltering-kerala-69354) has shown that the
Report (TAR) of IPCC. In such a scenario, winter temperature of Kerala has increased
the coastal regions are mostly at stake. There by almost 2° – 3°C above normal in
has been a clear indication of future February 2020. Even the temperature of
inundation of coastal areas on both west and Mumbai at that time was the highest in the
east coast. Ranger et al. (2011) have country. Different scientists have
estimated severe flooding in Mumbai (as particularly affirmed that such an increase in
more than double of 2005 flood event) by the winter temperature is not due to any Page 37
ISSUE-1 THE EARTH TALK: CHANGING PERSPECTIVES
2080. Therefore, a proper framework for periodic natural phenomena (eg. El Nino)
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
risk analysis as well as mitigation strategies rather this is only due to climate change.
 country. Different scientists have Agriculture in any other place is equally
particularly affirmed that such an increase in affected by changing climatic parameters
(e.g. Temperature, rainfall, Humidity etc.),
the winter temperature is not due to any
but agriculture of coastal regions are more
periodic natural phenomena (eg. El Nino) specifically vulnerable to climatic changes
rather this is only due to climate change. due to seawater intrusion, cyclones and
increasing soil salinity. The sheer change in
4. Impact Assessment: climatic parameters has adversely affected
the phenology of plants in almost all the
4.1. Impact on fisheries: coastal parts of India. Moreover, erratic
rainfall coupled with an increased
Any coastal region is mostly temperature regime has hampered the
dependent on fisheries as one of the popular traditional cropping pattern. The excessive
choices of livelihood. Radiative forcing due increase of temperature will decrease the
to greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions has yield of irrigated paddy and maize in the
adequately affected the increase in SST East Indian coastal areas severely (Kumar et
leading to an adverse impact on fishing. Any al., 2011). Increased temperature has also
farmed species reared under aquaculture are favoured the risk of pest attack in the crops
poikilothermic (species whose internal body resulting in a loss of productivity and yield.
temperature is duly sensitive to external Even on the west coast especially in Kerala,
stresses), hence, any subtle change in SST the cashew nut agro system has been
will certainly affect the metabolism and severely affected by the changing climate
growth of the species. A study by Zacharia (Gopalakrishnan et al., 2019). Such a
et al. (2016) has pointed out that the rising situation has ultimately led to a disruption of
SST of the Bay of Bengal has compelled the the traditional cropping calendar. Moreover,
fishermen to increase the depth at which nets as the coastal areas of India are
are cast. Even the change in wind direction predominantly inhabited by smallholder
and speed in the months of October – farming communities, they lack to adapt
January has caused a decrease in the amount expensive climate-smart strategies which
of tuna caught in the Indian Ocean. The push them to the end.
study also revealed that rising temperature
has caused an increase in the amount of 4.3. Impact on other Sectors of Economy,
energy to harvest a particular fish species on Infrastructure and Urban Cities
the Mumbai coast. Moreover, another study According to the climate models and a
by Salim et al. (2014) has suggested that the projection by NASA, sea-level rise by 2030
coastal fishing communities in Kerala are in will inundate the 10 major coastal cities of
more danger of the risk of loss due to erratic India including Mumbai and Chennai
monsoonal rainfall. Under a changing (Hindustan Times, 2021; Rasmussen, 2021;
climatic regime, the ecosystem services of The Hindu, 2021; Times of India, 2021).
the Indian East Coast are expected to This projected inundation may cost billions
decrease by almost 25% by 2050 resulting in of dollars and may severely affect the
an overall loss of 17 billion US$ (Mohanty growth of the economy of the nation (The
et al., 2017). Therefore proper mitigation Indian Express, 2021.). In a detailed work
strategies are highly needed. Pramanik (2017) analysed the change in the
4.2. Impact on agriculture: land use categories in different sea-level rise
scenarios, and stated that urban area will
significantly be affected by sea-level rise. In
a study Pednekar& Siva Raju(2019) has
Page 38 THE EARTH TALK: CHANGINGmentioned
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that sea-level rise will harshly
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affect the economy of Mumbai city very and
 significantly be affected by sea-level rise. In will further aggravate and affect the poor
a study Pednekar& Siva Raju(2019) has and vulnerable communities significantly.
mentioned that sea-level rise will harshly
5. Conclusion:
affect the economy of Mumbai city very and
disrupt public health, damage the Climate Change, in the present time,
infrastructures, and force people to migrate. is no longer a hoax, rather it's a well-
In another study, Saleem Khan et al.,(2012) established fact. Even the adverse impacts of
found that a total of 20 hamlets of Vellare - such a change are quite visible from all
Coleroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu perspectives. In such a scenario, a socially
coast will be submerged under the sea due to inclusive policy framework for better
sea-level rise resulting in loss of livelihood estimation of the adverse effects of climate
and displacement of thousands of people. change on different sectors as well as
Climate change induced sea-level rise will mitigation strategies is highly needed.
pose a serious threat to the 12 major ports Moreover, the coastal areas, which are most
and 205 notified minor and intermediate vulnerable to such changes, should be
ports of India affecting trade and cargo considered exclusively and different
movement of the country. Coastal cities are stakeholders from all hierarchies and all
likely to face more challenges by climate sectors should work together. Though
change-induced change. These cities are different International, national, public,
already coupled with various problems like private and non-governmental organizations
high-density unplanned settlement, rapid (NGOs) have already started working in
population growth, urban poverty, high such sectors, more holistic and socially
differentials in access to public services and comprehensive approaches through policies
infrastructure. With the impact of climate and researches should be introduced.
change-induced changes, these problems

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