Chapter-2: Estimation of Water

Power Potential
 2.1. Estimation of Water Power Potential
 Work done = Force * displacement
 The potential energy of water is:
 Work done =m * g * H, where H is the total head the water will fall.
= ρ * V * g * H, where: ρ *g=ү
= ү*V*H; V=Q*t
W= ү *Q*H/t→ W* t =ү *Q * H,
Hence, the theoretical electrical energy produced from a site is:
 Power (Watt) = ү *Q * H (where Ƴ= unit weight of water, 9810N/m3)
 If factor of efficiency (η) is introduced,
 Then , Power = ү* Q * H * η = 9.81 * Q * H * η (KW)
 2.2. Definitions(Terms)
 Gross head = it is the difference in water level between the water level in the
fore-bay (or head water in the reservoir) and tail water level.
 Net Head = gross head - all the hydraulic losses. It is the available head to do
work on the turbine
 Design Head = the net head at which the turbine reach its peak efficiency.
 Rated Head = it is the net head at which the turbine operating at full gate
opening.

Figure 2-1: High head HP scheme

 Firm Power = is the net amount of power which is continuously
available from a plant without any break down on guaranteed basis.

 This power should be available under most adverse hydraulic

conditions.

 The consumers shall always be sure of getting this power.

 Secondary Power = the excess power available over firm power

during the off peak period.

 It is available as a result of seasonal excess of water.

 The alternative to generation is letting the water runoff (spilling).

 There is no guarantee over secondary power.

 Definitions…
 Installed Capacity = the total capacity of all turbine-generator units installed
in the power house.
 Load = is the demand for electricity.
 Daily Load curve
 Load or demand for electric power varies from hour to hour, from day to day,
and from season to season in response to the needs and living patterns of
the power users.
 Definitions…
 Base load- is the total load continuously exceeded;
 Peak load-the highest instantaneous value of the demand.
 Average load- is the area under the curve divided by time.

 Load factor = it is the ratio of the average load over a certain period of time to
the peak load during the same period.
 Depending on the period chosen, there are different load factors as daily,
monthly or annual.
Load factor, LF = average load over a certain period
Peak load during that period
 The maximum load determines the capacity of the units while the load
factor gives an idea of degree of utilization.
 Example, an annual LF 0.6 indicate that the machines are producing 60% of
their yearly rated capacity (max. production capacity).
 Definitions…
 Capacity factor (plant use factor, plant factor) = defined as the ratio of average
output of the plant for a given period of time to the plant capacity.
Capacity factor, CF = average load (over a given period of time)
Plant capacity during that period
 The capacity factor and load factor would become the same if the peak load
is equal to the plant capacity.
 Utilization factor = Throughout the day or any given time period, a hydroelectric
plant power production goes on varying, depending upon the demand in the
power grid and the power necessary to be produced to balance it.
Utilization factor = Maximum power production over certain period
Installed capacity
 Capacity:- is the maximum amount of power that a generating plant can deliver,
expressed in kilowatts.
 Evaluation of site potential
 The primary purpose of a preliminary investigation in hydropower
development is to determine how much power is available at the site and
how often it is available.
 The power output of hydroelectric power plant is given by:
QgH
P ( KW )   9.81QH
1000

 Theoretical potential: - theoretical potential is the sum of the potential of all

natural flows from the largest rivers to the smallest stream regardless of the
inevitable losses and unfeasible sites.
 Technical potential: - from technical point of view, extremely low heads (less
than around 0.5m), head losses in water ways, efficiency losses in the
hydraulic and electrical machines, are considered as infeasible.
 Economic potential: - is only that part of the potential of more favorable sites
which can be regarded as economical compared to alternative sources of
power like oil and coal.
 Planning aspects of Hydropower
 Points need consideration for planning of the hydropower are:
1. Topography of the area: - includes the head and general alignment of the
area.
 The location of the dam/weir/barrage etc
 The reservoir capacity, submerged area, height and length of dam, location
of spillway
 The location of powerhouse and other infrastructures (power canals,
tunnels, surge tanks)
2. Geological Investigation: - For hydropower projects, engineers should closely
cooperate with the geologists during the course of investigation and
planning.
 The following geological factors should be considered:
 The bearing capacity, deformation of foundation
 Seepage problems
 Abutment and slope stability
 Change in hydro-geological conditions due to the construction of
structures
 Earthquakes condition and Investigation of construction materials
 Planning Aspects of Hydropower…
3. Hydrology
 Records of stream flow discharges (min. of 30 years for large hydro projects)
 Flood records that gives an idea of max. flood to be considered for the design
 Frequency of the floods usually estimated from the flood records and it is
1:10,000 for large dams and 1:100 to 1:1,000 for barrages and weirs.
 Low discharge to decide the firm power capacity of the hydro plant
4. Hydrometeorology: - to generate a stream flow series (using rainfall-runoff
models) for un-gauged catchments and to estimate the evaporation from the
reservoirs. Data's include:
 The rain gauge stations in the catchments, temperature, humidity, sunshine
hours and wind speed.
5. Material Survey: - For construction of various components construction
materials such as cement, steel, sand, aggregates and selected earth fill
materials are required.
 at the planning stage the sources of construction materials and the
distances from the construction site should be identified.
 Planning Aspects of Hydropower…
6. Communications: - Availability of communications such as roads, railways,
telecommunications (telephone or wireless) and electric.
7. Environmental Factors:- such as:
 Submergence of private or government or forest lands
 Submergence of private properties
 Ecological effects
 Submergence of National parks and monuments
8. Load Assessment: - Forecasting of power and estimation of the present load
status are useful to identify the capacity of the hydro plant to be established.
 Hydrological data analysis for Hydropower
development
 Before hydropower plant is planned the hydrological data should be analyzed.
 The accuracy of a hydrologic analysis depends greatly on the record of stream
flow data for the watershed.
 In many watersheds, the stream flow data are limited or non-existent.
 So, when considering hydropower development in such a watershed,
discharge measurements should be undertaken.
Case 1: - No record or flow data
Case 11: - Quality of data
Case 111: - Cyclicity (the quality of recurring at regular intervals) and
trends
 2.3. Hydrograph and flow duration curve
 A hydrograph indicates the variation of discharge or flow with time.

 It is plotted with flows as ordinates and time intervals as abscissas.

A. Flow duration curve:

 It is a curve drawn by using discharge as ordinate and % of exceedence time as
abscissa.

 FDC shows the percentage of time in which a certain flow is equaled or

exceeded for a period of record

 shows the relation between flow and time during which the discharges are
available.

 It is drawn when there is a continuous discharge data (daily, weekly or yearly)

 The flow duration curve can be plotted from a hydrograph.

 It is used to know the time variability of discharge data.

 Flow duration curve
 Procedure:
 Obtain stream flow data .
 Rank them with the lowest rank (1) given to the highest flow record;
 Obtain the percentage of time the flow is equaled or exceeded by dividing
the rank given to the total number of flow records
 B. Power duration curve
 It is a curve drawn by using power as ordinate and % of time
as abscissa.

 The power which is available 95%-97% of time is usually

considered to be firm or primary power.

 If the available head and efficiency of the power plant are

known, the flow duration curve may be converted in to the
power duration curve by charging the ordinate to the available
power (i.e. ηρgQH).
 The secondary (surplus) power is the area under the power
duration curve between the firm power line and the total installed
capacity.
 The area under the power duration curve will then be the average
annual energy production

P
 Power Demand Curve
 It is defined as the total load, which consumers choose, at any instant of
time, to connect to the supplying power system.
 Highest instantaneous value of demand is the peak load or peak
demand.
 Base load is the total load continuously exists where as the average
load is the area under the curve divided by the time
 If the demand is uniform, the demand curve is a horizontal line,
and the mass demand curve is a straight line having a slope
equal to the demand rate.
 2.4. Load prediction and Demand Assessment
 Load prediction

 For installation of a new power project or for expansion of the

existing power plant, it is necessary to estimate the total amount of
load that would be required to meet the various purposes.

 The usual practice followed in hydropower planning is that the full

potential of the project is developed in stages.

 The first stage of development envisages the power production

corresponding to immediate demand while the remaining potential
is developed in second or third stage of the project.
The prediction of load is done in either of the followings:

Short term: - cover a period of 4-5 yrs. It is done for areas of

deficient or surplus power for operation planning.

Medium term: - cover a period of 8-10 yrs. It is done on the

basis of expansion programme of power generation of
transmission facilities.

Long term: - forecasting covers a period of 20yrs. It helps in

the formulation of the country's prospective plan for power
generation.
 2.5. Reservoir Capacity determination
 The capacity required for a reservoir depends up on the inflow
available and the demand.
 If inflow > the demand, there is no storage required.
 if the inflow < the demand , storage is required.
 The required capacity for a reservoir can be determined by:
1. Graphical method (mass curve)
2. Analytical method.
a. Mass curve
 The mass curve is a plot of cumulative flow against time
throughout the record time.
 It is used to estimate storage requirement that is usable for
power production.
Hydrograph and mass curve
 Reservoir Capacity determination…
 Steps for computing reservoir capacity using mass curve method:
 Prepare mass inflow curve from the flow hydrograph;

 Prepare the mass demand curve corresponding to the given rate of demand

 Draw lines AB, FG, etc such that, parallel to the mass demand curve and
tangential to the crests, A, F, etc of mass curve. Points A, F etc indicate the
beginning of the dry periods.

 determine the vertical intercepts DC, HJ, etc b/n the tangential lines and the
mass inflow curve. These intercepts indicate the volumes by which the
inflow volumes fall short of demand.

 determine the largest vertical intercept. It represents the storage capacity

required.

 Note: The capacity obtained is the net storage capacity which must be available
to meet the demand. The gross capacity should include the losses as
evaporation, seepage, etc.
 Mass curve

Figure: Mass curve

 Reservoir Capacity determination…
2. Analytical method

Steps to calculate the reservoir capacity using analytical method:

 Adjust inflow from the river (stream flow and rainfall over the reservoir);

 Adjust the demand (total out flow from the dam), as evaporation loss, water
demand for power production, environmental losses and others;

 Compute the storage capacity for each months:

Storage required = Adjusted inflow - Adjusted demand

Note: The storage would be required only in those months in which the demand
is greater than the adjusted inflow.

 Determine the total storage capacity of the reservoir adding the storage
required found above.
Sequent peak Algorithm
 Storage and Pondage
Storage: is the reservoir that accumulates water behind
the constructed dam, which sometimes grows to be some
of the largest lakes in the world.

Pondage: refers to the small storage at the back of a weir, in run-

of-river plants, for temporarily storing water during non-working
hours, idle days and low load periods for use during hours of
peak load demand.
THANK YOU!!!
 Example-1
For a plant with capacity of 10,000KW were to produce 40,000KWh when
operating for 10 hrs with a peak load equal to 8,000KW. Determine the load,
capacity and utilization factors.
Load factor, LF = average load over a certain period = 40,000 KWh/10hr = 50%
Peak load during that period 8,000KW

CF = average load (over a given period of time) = 40,000KWh/10hr = 40%

Plant capacity during that period 10,000KW

UF = Maximum power production = 8000KW = 80%

Plant capacity 10,000KW
 Example-2
 A generating station has the following daily load. The capacity of
the plant is 12MW.
Time (hrs) Power (KW) Time (hrs) Power (KW)

0-6 4500 14-18 8000

6-8 3500 18-20 2500
8-12 7500 20-24 5000
12-14 2000

Question:
1. Sketch the load curve
2. Determine the load factor, capacity factor and Utilization factor
 Solution

Load curve

Time (hrs) Power (KW) Time (hr) Energy, KWh

0--6 4500 6 27000
6--8 3500 2 7000
8--12 7500 4 30000
12--14 2000 2 4000
14--18 8000 4 32000
18--20 2500 2 5000
20--24 5000 4 20000
Total 24 125,000
 Solution
 Total generated energy in 24hr = 125,000KWh
 Average load = 125,000/ 24 = 5,208KW
 Load factor =Average/ Peak = 5,208/ 8,000 = 0.651 = 65.1%
 Capacity factor = Average load/ installed capacity = 5208/ 12000 =
0.434= 43.4%
 Exercise: Determine the utilization factor (UF)

Utilization factor = Maximum production / Installed capacity

=8000/12000=0.67=67%
 Example:
 The average monthly flows of a stream in a dry year are as follows:

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q(m3/s) 117 150 203 117 80 118 82 79 58 45 57 152

Question:
 It is intended to design a hydroelectric power plant across the streams,
using the above data, net head at the plant site =20m, efficiency of the
turbine = 90%.
1. Plot the flow and power duration curves and calculate the firm
and secondary power available from this source if the maximum
usable flow is limited to 150m3/s.
2. It is intended to develop power at a firm rate of 15MW, either by
providing storage or by providing a standby diesel plant with no
storage, determine the minimum capacity of the reservoir and
of the diesel unit.
 Solution: FDC and PDC
Power (MW)
Flow Cumulative Frequency Frequency equaled (=20*0.9*9.81/1000)=
(m3/s) (months) or exceeded (%) 0.176
[1] [2] [3]=([2]/[12])*100 0.176*[1]
203 1 8.33 35.728
152 2 16.67 26.752
150 3 25.00 26.4
118 4 33.33 20.768
117 5 41.67 20.592
117 5 41.67 20.592
82 7 58.33 14.432
80 8 66.67 14.08
79 9 75.00 13.904
58 10 83.33 10.208
57 11 91.67 10.032
45 12 100.00 7.95
 Solution…
A. The flow duration curve (flow Vs frequency equaled or exceeded) will be
plotted.
 The same plot can be used as a power duration curve by multiplying the
ordinates by a factor of η*p*g*H/10^6 =(0.9*9,810*20/10^6) = 0.176
to obtain the power in MW with η=90% and H=20m, (i.e. P=0.176*Q)
 The firm power available (equal to the area of the power duration
curve) under the 45m3/s line is 7.95MW (=0.9*9.81*1000*20*45/10^6).
 The secondary power (equal to the area under the power duration
curve between the 150 and 45m3/s lines) is 10MW.
B. The power to be supplemented by storage or standby unit to obtain a firm
power of 15MW is the area "abc” = 17.76MWmonth.
 Therefore the storage required is: (17.76 * 10^6 *30*24*60)/ (1000
*9.81*20*0.90) = 2.6 *10^8m3.
 The firm power available is 7.95MW. Therefore the capacity of the
standby unit is 15-7.95=7.05MW.
Solution: FDC and PDC…
 Example-4
 Compute the minimum reservoir storage required to maintain a demand of
50m3/s monthly river flows to the reservoir is available as follows:
Month Mean flow # of days Monthly flow (m3/s. Cumulative flow
(m3/s) day) (m3/s.day)
Jan 94 31 2914 2914
Feb 82 28 2296 5210
Mar 45 31 1395 6605
Apr 20 30 600 7205
May 26 31 806 8011
Jun 43 30 1290 9301
Jul 90 31 2790 12091
Aug 110 31 3410 15501
Sep 86 30 2580 18081
Oct 70 31 2170 20251
Nov 53 30 1590 21841
Dec 40 31 1240 23081
 Example-4
 The demand is 50m3/s=50m3/s*# of days in a months for each month. Then
draw a demand line having a slope of 50m3/s*# of days in a month on the
mass curve starting at the peak point. The vertical difference b/n these two
lines give reservoir storage.
 As shown on the graph below, two vertical lines CD and EF are drawn. The
maximum of the two is the line EF having a value of 1,982m3/s-day.