05/07/2023, 16:39 China stock falls leave investors pining for support from Beijing | 中国股市下跌令投资者寄望于政府刺激 - FT中文网

中国经济
China stock falls leave investors pining
for support from Beijing
中国股市下跌令投资者寄望于政府刺激
Recent Chinese economic data has convinced
strategists some form of stimulus is likely that
could help turn sentiment round
最近的中国经济数据让股票策略师相信，政府
可能出台某种形式的刺激措施，帮助扭转市场
情绪。
更新于2023年7月4日 14:29 英国《金融时报》康河信，Cheng Leng香
港报道
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苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索 made the case
“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官
方应用。 that a 46 per
cent rise in a

As Chinese 今年 1 月，在严 matter of weeks

stocks rocketed 格的防疫限制措 was only the

higher in 施取消后，中国 beginning.

January after 股市飙升，高盛 “China looks “ 在 2023 年的全

stringent Covid (Goldman well positioned 球背景下，中国
restrictions 策略师提
Sachs) across the 看起来在增长、
were lifted, 出，几周内上涨 growth, policy 政策和通胀周期
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and inflation 等方面处于有利 Chinese stocks 中国股市已较 1

cycles in a 地位， ” 他们认 have fallen 月底的峰值下跌
global context in 为，并指出，如 more than 20 逾20%，在全球
2023,” they 果中国成功完全 per cent from 和地区股市表现
argued, noting 摆脱破坏性的封 their peak in 超出悲观预期之
shares could 控，股市可能会 late January — 际，将这个全球
jump another 15 再上涨15%甚至 pushing the 第二大经济体推
or even 20 per 20% 。在随后的 world’s second- 入熊市。
cent if the 几 周 里 ， MSCI largest economy
country 中国指数 (MSCI into a bear
managed to China index) 上 market at a time
fully put 涨了近10%。 when global and
disruptive regional peers
lockdowns have
behind it. And outstripped
in the weeks downbeat
that followed, predictions.
the MSCI China
index rose
“Did we think “ 我们想得到中
almost 10 per
China was going 国股市会变得这
cent.
to be this bad? 么糟糕吗？不，
No, we were all 我们那时都对重
But despite 尽管华尔街许多 euphoric about 新开放感到兴
optimistic 大银行都做出了 reopening,” said 奋， ” 一家投行
predictions 乐观的预测，但 a Hong Kong- 驻香港的交易员
from many of 市场那时已经接 based trader at 表示。 “ 现在你
Wall Street’s 近顶部。 one investment 试试和任何人谈
biggest banks, bank. “Just try 论中国股市 ——
the market was talking to 就像推石头上山
already nearing anyone about 一样困难。”
the top. Chinese equities
right now — it’s
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05/07/2023, 16:39 China stock falls leave investors pining for support from Beijing | 中国股市下跌令投资者寄望于政府刺激 - FT中文网

like pushing hoarding during

bricks uphill.” lockdowns.

Investors’ high 投资者对中国股 And finally, if 最后，如果这未

hopes for 市的高期望基于 that failed, 能实现，中国政
Chinese stocks 三个因素。首 Beijing would 府将像以前多次
rested on three 先，随着美国和 step in with 做过的那样，出
factors. First, 中国恢复定期外 large-scale 手推出大规模刺
tensions with 交往来，两国之 stimulus as it 激措施。
the US would 间的紧张氛围最 has done so
finally subside 终会消退。 many times
as regular before.
diplomatic
exchanges
But the US 但美国政府今年
government’s 2 月击落中国间
between
Washington and
outing and 谍气球的举动，
downing of a 破坏了中美关系
Beijing
Chinese spy 刚刚出现的缓
resumed.
balloon in 和，并令全球投
Secondly, 其次，策略师预 February 资者感到恐慌，
strategists 计，随着家庭终 derailed a 这些投资者本已
expected 于可以将封控期 nascent detente 对全球最大两个
Chinese 间积蓄的所有想 and spooked 经济体之间日益
consumer 花而没花掉的现 global investors 紧张的关系带来
spending would 金花出去，中国 already on alert 的金融后果保持
roar back as 消费者支出将大 for financial 警惕。
households 幅回升。 fallout from
were finally rising tensions
freed up to between the
spend all the world’s two
pent-up cash
they had been

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largest of 2022, 收入存起来。近

economies. according to 60% 的受访者表

严厉的新冠清零 findings from a 示，他们更倾向

And instead of
政策造成的几年 quarterly survey 于储蓄，只有四
deploying
经济扰乱和金融 by People’s 分之一的人更倾
excess
in waves
savings
of 不稳定给中国消 Bank of China 向于消费。
“revenge 费者留下创伤， released on

spending”, 他们并没有将多 Thursday.

Chinese 余的储蓄投入到 Almost 60 per

“ 报复性消费 ” 浪
cent of
consumers —
scarred by years 潮中，而是仍然 respondents

of economic 不愿进行可能加 said they were

disruption and 速经济增长的大 more inclined to

financial 规模采购。 save

earnings, while
their

precarity due to
just a quarter
harsh zero-
were more likely
Covid policies —
to spend them.
have remained
reluctant to “Chinese 麦 格理
make major households (Macquarie) 高级
purchases that appear to be in 分 析 师 Dexter
could rev up deleveraging Hsu表示：“中国
economic mode, by saving 家庭似乎正处于
growth. more while 去杠杆模式，他
中国央行(PBoC) paying off loans 们增加储蓄，同
More Chinese
上周四发布的一 early,” said 时提前偿还贷
consumers
项季度调查显 Dexter Hsu, a 款。随着（存
preferred to
示，2023年上半 senior analyst 款）利率继续下
save their
年，更多的中国 with Macquarie. 降，家庭正在寻
earnings in the
first six months 消费者倾向于将 “As [deposits] 求收益。”
interest rates
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continue to [authorities]
decline, still have a lot of
households are policy room.”
hunting for
Historically 中国的政策制定
yields.”
policymakers 者历来把重点放
That has left 这让策略师们只 have focused on 在房地产开发和
strategists 能依赖最后一根 real estate 基础设施项目
reliant on the 支柱 —— 中国政 development 上，这些项目对
final pillar — 府久经考验且为 and 中国一直以来的
Chinese 人们信赖的巨额 infrastructure 高速增长至关重
authorities’ 支出经济刺激政 projects, which 要。
tried and 策。 have long been
trusted policy of central to the
spending vast country’s
amounts of historically
money trying to breakneck
stimulate the growth.
economy.
But after years 但经过数年对中
“There’s a lot of 汇丰前海证券 of cracking 国房地产集团过
high (HSBC Qianhai down on excess 度杠杆的打压，
expectations of Securities) 证券 leverage at 北京方面对可能
a stimulus 研究部总经理孙 Chinese 导致开发商债务
package,” said 瑜 (Steve Sun) 表 property 负担再次膨胀的
Steven Sun, 示： “ 很多人对 groups, Beijing 大规模刺激措施
head of research 刺激计划抱有很 is wary of the 持谨慎态度。因
and equity 高的期望。可以 kind of large- 此中国下调了利
strategy at 说（政府）还有 scale stimulus 率来帮助避免经
HSBC Qianhai 很大的政策空 that could cause 济下滑，但仍不
Securities. “And 间。” developers’ debt 愿提供更广泛的
suffice to say loads to balloon 支持，以投资者
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again. As a 在2023年初所期 deteriorating

result, China 待的方式来帮助 external
has cut rates 扭转局面。 geopolitical
enough to help environment
stave off a and
downturn but overestimated
remains the rebound
reluctant to from post-
deliver the pandemic
wider support to revenge
help turn things spending,” said
around in the Lu Ting, chief
way investors China
anticipated at economist at
the start of Nomura.
2023.
Yet the grim 然而，中国最近
“The economic 野村 (Nomura) 首 picture painted 公布的经济数据
recovery fell 席中国经济学家 by recent 所显示出的黯淡
short of 陆挺表示： “ 经 economic data 景象使一些策略
expectations as 济复苏不及预 out of China has 师相信，至少有
people 期，因为人们低 convinced some 可能出台某种形
underestimated 估了房地产行业 strategists that 式的刺激措施
the negative 危机的负反馈循 at least some —— 可以帮助扭
feedback loop of 环，低估了外部 form of stimulus 转市场情绪。
the property 地缘政治环境恶 is likely — and
sector 化导致的信心缺 could help turn
meltdown, 失，以及高估了 market
underestimated 疫情后报复性支 sentiment
the lack of 出的反弹。” around.
confidence due
to the
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HSBC Qianhai 汇丰前海最近下 though he 房地产或基础设

recently 调了对沪深 300 added 施上。
trimmed its 指数的年终目 policymakers
year-end target 标。孙瑜将此举 were unlikely to
for the CSI 300 描述为 “ 微调 ” ， focus on
index of 并仍预计该基准 property or
Shanghai- and 指数 —— 今年迄 infrastructure
Shenzhen-listed 今 下 跌 约 1% as they had with
stocks. Sun ——将在2023年 previous efforts.
described the 底 上 涨 11% 以 景顺 (Invesco) 亚
move as “a 上。 David
global
Chao,
market 太地区（日本除
tweak” and still
strategist for 外）全球市场策
expects the
Asia Pacific ex- 略师赵耀庭
(David Chao) 表
benchmark,
Japan at
currently down
Invesco, said 示，投资者将有
roughly 1 per
investors would 兴趣重返中国股
cent year
date, to finish
to
be tempted to 市，因为 “ 目前
2023 up more
return to 的估值过于看
than 11 per cent.
Chinese equities 跌”。
because
Sun said China 孙瑜表示，中国 “current
would rapidly 将在下半年迅速 valuations are
increase its 增加刺激措施， way too
stimulus 以帮助部分弥补 bearish”.
measures in the 消费者信心的不 他补充称，未来
second half of 足。不过他补充 He added that
几个月中国政府
the year to help 称，政策制定者 more stimulus
可能出台更多刺
compensate in 不太可能像以往 measures from
激措施，可能为
part for a lack of 那样将重点放在 Beijing
likely in
were
the 经济提供 “ 有意
consumer
confidence,
coming months 义的提振 ” ，并
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and could “ 向市场发出信 over the next 12

provide a 号 ” ，不过他补 months.
“meaningful 充称这些措施将 其他人则不那么
“ 以零敲碎打的
Others are less
boost” to the
形式推出”。 sanguine. 乐观。野村的陆
economy as well
Nomura’s Lu 挺和其他持怀疑
as a “signal to
and other 态度的分析师认
markets”,
sceptical 为，大规模的货
though he
analysts argue 币刺激或大幅降
added these
that massive 息无法带来恢复
would “come
monetary 市场信心所需的
out in bits and
stimulus or 经济增长。他们
pieces”.
aggressive 表示，这使得对
Even Goldman 就连高盛也仍对 interest rate 中国股市的看涨
Sachs remains 刺激政策支持下 cuts cannot 预测显得不现
hopeful that a 的反弹抱有希 unleash the 实。
stimulus-backed 望，该公司在最 kind of
rebound is still 近的一份报告中 economic
on the cards, 解释称，政策宽 growth needed
explaining in a 松是 “ 我们建设 to restore
recent note that 性市场观点的核 confidence in
policy easing is 心前提 ” ，并预 the market.
a “central 测未来12个月中 That makes the
premise of our 国在岸股市将较 bullish forecasts
constructive 当前水平上涨 for Chinese
market view” 7%。 equities
and forecasting unrealistic, they
that China’s say.
onshore stock
“The market is “ 市场正在乞求
market will rise
begging for 刺激， ” 思睿集
7 per cent from
its current level
stimulus,” said 团 (Grow

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Hong Hao, chief Investment problems. The 它就越难走出困

economist at Group) 首席经济 more we feed 境。”
Grow 学家洪灏表示。 property, the
Investment “ 但货币宽松解 harder it is to
Group. “But 决不了长期性的 get out of its
monetary easing 问题。我们给房 trap.”
can’t solve the 地产喂得越多， 译者/何黎
secular

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