Chapter 12 – Revision of chapters 9-11

Solutions to Technology-free questions

1 a Sum of numbers showing is 5 4 a Let,
means that one of the follow- Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = Pr(5) = x.
x
ing four outcomes is observed: Then Pr(4) = 4x, and Pr(6) = .
2
{(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}. Since the sum of probabilities is 1,
x
Since there are 36 possible outcomes x + x + x + x + 4x + = 1.
n(ε) = 36, and 2
2
4 1 So x = .
Pr(sum is 5) = = 17
36 9 Thus
2
b Pr(sum is not 5) = 1 − Pr(sum is 5) Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = Pr(5) = ,
17
8 1
1 Pr(4) = , Pr(6) =
=1− 17 17
9
8 b Pr( the two numbers are the same)
=
9
x2
= 4x2 + 16x2 +
4
2 a Sample space:
81x2
{348, 384, 438, 483, 843, 834}, =
4
n(ε) = 6
81 22
= × 2
b Number is less than 4 17
81
500 = {348, 384, 438, 483}, = 2
n(less than 500) = 4, 17
4 2 81
Pr(less than 500) = = =
6 3 289

c Even = {348, 384, 438, 834},

2 5 Pr(hitting the blue circle) =
n(Even) = 4, Pr(Even) = 1
3 π(10)2 ÷ π(20)2 = 100π ÷ 400π =
4

3 a Area circle = πr2 ,

6 Let S be the event that the day is sunny.
πr2
Area A = ,
4
πr2 1
Pr(A) = ÷ (πr2 ) =
4 4
b
Pr(the pointer never stops in region A) =
!4
3 81
=
4 256

397
 a Pr(sunny all weekend) = Pr(SS) ⇔ p ≥ 0.05
= 0.6 × 0.8 Hence 0.05 ≤ p ≤ 0.2

= 0.48
9 a 10 × 9 × 8 = 720 ways
b
Pr(Sunny on Sunday) = Pr(S S or S ′ S ) b Number of ways with year
= 0.6 × 0.8 + 0.4 × 0.2 11 students filling the first
three places= 4 × 3 × 2 = 24 ways.
= 0.48 + 0.08 Pr(year 11 students filling the first three places) =
= 0.56 24 1
=
720 30

7 A and B are independent events, and !

12
Pr(A) = 0.4, Pr(B) = 0.5. 10 There are = 220 different
3
committees (without restrictions)
a Pr(A|B) = Pr(A) = 0.4 (since A and B
are independent) a If there is one girl then there are two
boys. We can choose one girl from
b Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) Pr(B)
7 girls and
! two boys from 5 boys in
(since A and B are independent)
!
7 5
× = 7 × 10 = 70 ways.
= 0.4 × 0.5 1 2
70 7
= 0.2 Thus, Pr(one girl) = =
220 22
c b Let X = the number of boys on the
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) committee.
= 0.4 + 0.5 − 0.2 Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0).
We can choose three girls from 7
= 0.7
girls
! and! zero boys from 5 boys in
7 5
× = 35 × 1 = 35 ways.
8 a i Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B|A) 3 0
= 0.5 × 0.1 = 0.05 35 37
Thus Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − =
220 44
Pr(A ∩ B)
ii Pr(A|B) = Pr(X = 3)
Pr(B) c Pr(X = 3|X ≥ 1) =
1 ! Pr(X! ≥ 1)
= 7 5
20p ×
0 5 10 1
b Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(X = 3) = = =
220 220 22
= 0.5 + p − 0.05 = 0.45 + p 1/22 2
∴ Pr(X = 3|X ≥ 1) = =
Pr(A ∪ B) ≤ 0.65 ⇒ 0.45 + p ≤ 0.65 37/44 37
⇒ p ≤ 0.2
1
Also ≤ 1 ⇔ 20p ≥ 1 11 a 0.8 + k = 1 ⇒ k = 0.2
20p

398
 b i 1 2
×
Pr(X ≤ 2) b Pr(Machine A| Faulty) = 20 5
19
= Pr(X = 0) + Pr(X = 1) + Pr(X = 2) 50
10
= 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.4 =
19
= 0.7

ii 13 Records show that x % of people will

Pr(X ≥ 2) pass their driver’s license on the first
attempt.
= Pr(X = 2) + Pr(X = 3) + Pr(X = 4)
 x 10
= 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.2 a
100
= 0.7
 x 9  x 
Pr(1 ≤ X ≤ 2) b 10 1 −
iii Pr(X ≤ 2|X ≥ 1) = 100 100
Pr(X ≥ 1)
 x 10  x 9  x 
0.6 c + 10 1 −
= 100 100 100
0.9
 x 8  x 2
2

= + 45 1−
3 100 100

c 0.12 + 0.22 + 0.42 + 0.12 + 0.22 = 0.26 10 10

14 a 2 p 2
(1 − p) 8
= 3
3 p (1 − p)
7

400 45p2 (1 − p)8 = 120p3 (1 − p)7

12 a Pr((faulty) = 0.05 × + 0.03 × 45(1 − p) = 120p
1000
600 45 − 45p = 120p
1000 45 3
2 3 p= =
= 0.05 × + 0.03 × 165 11
5 5
= 0.038 b Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0)
!10
8
=1−
11

399
Solutions to multiple-choice questions
1  k  k − 1 
1 E Pr (success) = for each 9 B Pr(R, R) =
12 k+1 k
!2 k−1
1 1 =
Pr (both) = = k+1
12 144
 2 2  3 2  4 2 1
2 C Pr(W B) + Pr(BW) = + = 10 D Replace: Pr(A, A) = =
5 5 52  169
4 3
13 No replace: Pr(A, A) =
25 52 51
1
=
3 E Two dice, Pr(X > 12) = 0, 221
Ratio=221:169 = 17:13
1
Pr(X = 12) = 1
36 11 D Bill: n = 2, p =
2
34 43 1
4 B Pr(G, B) + Pr(B, G) = + Charles: n = 4, p =
7 6 7 6 4
4 Pr(≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(none)
=
 1 2 3 192
7 Bill: 1 − = =
2   4 256
5 E Pr(X ∪ Y) = Pr(X) + Pr(Y) 3 4 175
Charles: 1 − =
− Pr(X ∩ Y) 4 256
Bill:Charles = 192:175
= Pr(Y ′ ) + Pr(Y) − 0
12 D N(RAPIDS, vowels together)
=1
= 2!(vowels) × 5!(cons
1 + vowel group)
6 E Binomial, n = 500, p = :
2
 1 250  1 250 = 240
Pr(X = 250) = 500 C250
2 2 (m + n)!
 1 500 13 E n from (m + n) : m+n Cn =
n!m!
= 500 C250
2
14 A Choose 7 from 12 = 12 C7 = 792
1
7 C Binomial, n = 6, p = : 15 E 4 letters, 4 choices, replacement
6
Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0) = 44 = 256
 5 6
321 1
=1− 16 E Pr(O, O, O) = =
6 6 5 4 20

8 C Pr(♥ ∪ J) = Pr(♥) + Pr(J) − Pr(J♥)

1 1 1
= + −
4 13 52
16 4
= =
52 13

400
17 B Person 1 has 6 × 10 possibilities. 1
22 E Binomial, n = 6, p =
Person 2 enters by the same gate and  1 4 87 2
can choose 9 exits. Pr(X = 4) = 6 C4
8 8
1 1  1 4  7 2
18 C Pr(A ∩ B) = , Pr(B) = , = 15
5 2 8 8
1
Pr(B|A) = 23 C Binomial, n = 3, p = p
3
Pr(A ∩ B) 1 1 2 Pr(X ≤ 1) = (1 − p)3 +3 C1 p(1 − p)2
Pr(A|B) = = ÷ =
Pr(B) 5 2 5 = (1 − p)2 (1 − p + 3p)
Pr(A ∩ B) = (1 − p)2 (1 + 2p)
Pr(B|A) =
Pr(A)
Pr(A ∩ B) 24 D Binomial, n = 10, p = 0.8
Pr(A) =
Pr(B|A) Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0)
1 1 3
= ÷ = = 1 − (0.2)10
5 3 5
3 25 D Binomial, n = n, p = 0.15
19 C Pr(4, 6) + Pr(6, 4) + Pr(5, 5) = Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0)
36
1 1 ∴ 0.85n < 0.1
20 A Pr(A, D, E, H, S ) = =  20 n
5! 120
> 10, ∴ n > 14.2
43 1 17
21 E Pr(G, G) = = 15 shots needed
16 15 20

401
Solutions to extended-response questions
1 Interval No. of plants Proportion No. of plants > 30 cm Proportion
1
(0, 10] 1
56
2
(10, 20] 2
56
4
(20, 30] 4
56
6 6
(30, 40] 6 6
56 49
13 13
(40, 50] 13 13
56 49
22 22
(50, 60] 22 22
56 49
8 8
(60, 70] 8 8
56 49
Total 56 1 49 1
Let X be the height of the plants (in cm).
22 8
a i Pr(X > 50) = +
56 56
30 15
= = ≈ 0.5357
56 28
30 1 2 4
ii Pr(X > 50) + Pr(X ≤ 30) = + + +
56 56 56 56
37
= ≈ 0.6607
56

iii Pr(X > 40|X > 30) = 1 − Pr(X ≤ 40|X > 30)
6 43
=1− = ≈ 0.8776
49 49
6 1
b Pr(F) = and Pr(D) =
7 4

i Pr(F ∩ D′ ) = Pr(F) × Pr(D′ )

6 1 6 3
= (1 − ) = ×
7 4 7 4
9
= ≈ 0.6429
14

402
 ii Pr(F ∩ D′ ∩ (X > 50)) = Pr(F) × Pr(D′ ) × Pr(X > 50)
9 15 135
= × =
14 28 392
≈ 0.3444

1 2 1 1
2 a Pr(all even) = × × =
3 3 2 9
b Bag A Bag B Bag C Probability
2
0 5 7
216
16
3 2 7
216
8
3 5 2
216
16
3 5 4
216
8
3 5 7
216
4
6 2 2
216
8
6 2 4
216
4
6 2 7
216
4
6 5 1
216
2
6 5 2
216
4
6 5 4
216
2
6 5 7
216

13
Probability =
36
c Possible choices C B
1 any ball
2 5
4 5
7 no possible choice
∴ probability that B draws a higher number than C

403
 1 1 1 1 1
= + × + ×
3 6 3 3 3
1 1 1
= + +
3 18 9
6+1+2 1
= =
18 2
d Possible choices B C A
2 1 3 or 6
2 2 3 or 6
2 4 6
2 7 no possible choice
5 1 6
5 2 6
5 4 6
5 7 no possible choice
∴ probability that A draws a higher number than B or C
2 1 5 2 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
= × × + × × + × × + × × + × × + ×□ ×
3 3 6 3 6 6 3 3 6 3 3 6 3 6 6 3 3 6
10 10 2 1 1 1
= + + + + +
54 108 54 54 108 54
20 + 10 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 2 39 13
= = =
108 108 36

404
3 Let X be the number of correct predictions, n = 10, p = 0.6

a i Pr(first 8 correct, last 2 wrong) = (0.6)8 (0.4)2 ≈ 0.0027

!
10
ii Pr(X = 8) = (0.6)8 (0.4)2
8
10 × 9 × 8!
= × 0.002 687 385
8! × 2 × 1
= 45 × 0.002 687 385
= 0.120 932 352 ≈ 0.12

iii Pr(X ≥ 8) = Pr(X = 8) + Pr(X = 9) + Pr(X = 10)

! !
10 10
= 0.120 932 352 + (0.6) (0.4) +
9 1
(0.6)10 (0.4)0
9 10
= 0.120 932 352 + 0.040 310 784 + 0.006 046 617
= 0.167 289 753 ≈ 0.17

Pr(X = 8)
iv Pr(X = 8|X ≥ 8) =
Pr(X ≥ 8)
0.120 932 352
=
0.167 289 753
≈ 0.722 891 568 ≈ 0.72
 
b Pr(X = 8) = 10
8 p (1 − p) = 45p (1 − p)
8 2 8 2

Maximum occurs when p = 0.8 and then Pr(X = 8) ≈ 0.3020 (Calulation with CAS)

4 a Let L be the event ‘ an employee is late’, B the event ‘travels by bus’, T the event
‘travels by train’, and C the event ‘travels by car’.
1
1 3
L
8
B 2
3
L'
1
3 5
L
8
T 4
5
L'
3
1 4
L
2
C 1
4
L'

405
 Pr(L) = Pr(L ∩ B) + Pr(L ∩ T ) + Pr(L ∩ C)
= Pr(L|B) × Pr(B) + Pr(L|T ) × Pr(T ) + Pr(L|C) × Pr(C)
1 1 3 1 1 3
= × + × + ×
8 3 8 5 2 4
1 3 3
= + +
24 40 8
5 + 9 + 45
=
120
59
= ≈ 0.4917
120
Pr(C ∩ L) Pr(L|C) × Pr(C)
b Pr(C|L) = =
Pr(L) Pr(L)
3
3 × 120
= 8 =
59 8 × 59
120
45
= ≈ 0.7627
59
c i Let X = number of times employee is late for work travelling by car
3
∴ X is binomial n = 5, p =
4
∴ Pr(X ≥ 2) = 0.9844

ii Let X = number of times employee is late for work travelling by train

1
∴ X is binomial n = 5, p =
5
∴ Pr(X ≥ 2) = 0.2627

5 Let A be the event ‘Group A is chosen’, B be the event ‘Group B is chosen’ and C be
the event ‘ Group C is chosen’
Group Boy (G') or Girl (G)
2 1
1 5
G' Pr(A ∩ G') = 5
2
A 3 3
5
G Pr(A ∩ G) = 10
1 1
1 G' Pr(B ∩ G') = 24
6
B 4
3
4
G Pr(B ∩ G) = 81
1
2
3
G' Pr(C ∩ G') = 92
C
3 1
3
G Pr(C ∩ G) = 19

406
a Pr(G′ ) = Pr(G′ ∩ A) + Pr(G′ ∩ B) + Pr(G′ ∩ C)
1 1 2
= + +
5 24 9
216 + 45 + 240
=
1080
501 167
= = ≈ 0.639
1080 360
Pr(A ∩ G)
b i Pr(A|G) =
Pr(G)
Pr(A ∩ G)
=
Pr(A ∩ G) + Pr(B ∩ G) + Pr(C ∩ G)
3
= 10
3 1 1
+ +
10 8 9
3
= 10
108 + 45 + 40
360
3 360
= ×
10 193
108
= ≈ 0.596
193
Note: Pr(G) can also be found by calculating 1 − Pr(G′ ) or directly from the tree
diagram.
Pr(B ∩ G)
ii Pr(B|G) =
Pr(G)
1
= 8
193
360
1 360
= ×
8 193
45
= ≈ 0.332
193

407
6 a 1
1 1 Pr(A chosen and 1 drawn) = 6
2
1 1
3
A 1
2
2 Pr(A chosen and 2 drawn) = 6
1 1
3 3 Pr(B chosen and 3 drawn) = 9
1 1 1
3
B 3 4 Pr(B chosen and 4 drawn) = 9
1 1
3 5 Pr(B chosen and 5 drawn) = 9
1 1 1
3
C 2 3 Pr(C chosen and 3 drawn) = 6
1 1
2 5 Pr(C chosen and 5 drawn) = 6

i Pr(4 drawn) = Pr(B chosen and 4 drawn)

1
=
9
≈ 0.1111

ii Pr(3 drawn) = Pr(B chosen and 3 drawn) + Pr(C chosen and 3 drawn)
1 1
= +
9 6
5
=
18
≈ 0.2778

b i Pr(balls drawn by David and Sally are both 4)

= Pr(B chosen and 4 drawn) × Pr(B chosen and 4 drawn)
1 1 1
= × =
9 9 81
≈ 0.0123

ii Pr(David and Sally both draw balls numbered 3 from the same bag)
= Pr(B chosen and 3 drawn) × Pr(B chosen and 3 drawn)
+ Pr(C chosen and 3 drawn) × Pr(C chosen and 3 drawn)
1 1 1 1
= × + ×
9 9 6 6
1 1
= +
81 36
36 + 81
=
2916
117 13
= =
2916 324
≈ 0.0401

408
7 a i m + 10 = 40
∴ m = 30
q + 10 = 45
∴ q = 35
m + q + s + 10 = 100
∴ s = 100 − 10 − m − q
= 100 − 10 − 30 − 35
∴ s = 25

ii m + q = 30 + 35
= 65

b Let H be the event ‘History is taken’

Let G be the event ‘Geography is taken’.
m
Pr(H ∩ G′ ) =
100
30
=
100
= 0.3

Pr(G ∩ H ′ )
c Pr(G|H ′ ) =
Pr(H ′ )
q
= 100
100 − m − 10
100
q
=
90 − m
35 7
= = ≈ 0.5833
60 12
8

a There are 3 × 4 × 5 = 60 different routes from A to D.

b There are 2 × 2 × 2 = 8 routes without roadworks.

1 2 3
c Pr (roadworks at each stage) = × ×
3 4 5
1
= = 0.1
10

409
9 Let A be the event ‘A hits the target’, B be the event ‘B hits the target’, and C be the
event ‘C hits the target’.
1 1 1
∴ Pr(A) = , Pr(B) = , Pr(C) =
5 4 3

a Pr(A ∩ B ∩ C) = Pr(A) × Pr(B) × Pr(C) as A, B, C are independent

1 1 1
= × ×
5 4 3
1
= ≈ 0.0167
60
4 3
b Pr(A′ ) = , Pr(B′ ) =
5 4
Pr(A ∩ B ∩ C) = Pr(A′ ) × Pr(B′ ) × Pr(C)
′ ′

4 3 1
= × ×
5 4 3
1
= = 0.2
5

c Pr(at least one shot hits the target) = 1 − Pr (no shot hits the target)
4 3 2
=1− × ×
5 4 3
2
=1−
5
3
= = 0.6
5

d Pr(C|only one shot hits the target)

Pr(C ∩ A′ ∩ B′ )
=
Pr(A ∩ B′ ∩ C ′ ) + Pr(A′ ∩ B ∩ C ′ ) + Pr(A′ ∩ B′ ∩ C)
1 4 3
× ×
= 3 5 4
1 3 2 4 1 2 4 3 1
× × + × × + × ×
5 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3
12
= 60
6 8 12
+ +
60 60 60
12
=
26
6
= ≈ 0.4615
13

410
10 a 100 cm

20 cm
20 cm 4 9 2

100 cm 3 5 7

8 1 6

i Area of large outer square = 100 × 100 = 10 000 cm2 .

ii Area of one inner square = 20 × 20 = 400 cm2 .

iii Area of shaded region = 10 000 − 9 × 400 = 6400 cm2 .

400
b i Pr(one dart will score 7) =
10 000
= 0.04
(i.e. area of small square marked 7 divided by area of large square)

ii Pr(at least 7) = Pr(7) + Pr(8) + Pr(9)

= 3 × 0.4 = 0.12

area of shaded region

iii Pr(score will be 0) =
total area of board
6400
= = 0.64
10 000
c i To get 18 from two darts, 9 and 9 need to be thrown.
Pr(18) = 0.04 × 0.04
= 0.0016

ii Throws to score 24 are 6, 9, 9 or 7, 8, 9 or 8, 8, 8 in any order, i.e. possible

throws
6 9 9 7 8 9
7 9 8 8 7 9
8 8 8 8 9 7
9 6 9 9 7 8
9 8 7 9 9 6

411
 There are 10 winning combinations.
Pr(a winning combination) = (0.04)3
∴ Pr (scoring 24) = 10 × (0.04)3
= 10 × 0.000064
= 0.00064

1 3 1
11 a Pr(snow day 2)= × α + × β = (α + 3β)
4 4 4
1 1 3 3
b Pr(snow day 3)= × α2 + × (1 − α)β + × αβ + × β(1 − β)
4 4 4 4
1 2
= (α + 4β + 2αβ − 3β )
2
4
1 3
c (α + 3β) = ⇒ α = 1.5 − 3β
4 8
Substitute in expression for snow on day 3:
19
(1.5 − 3β)2 + 4β + 2β(1.5 − 3β) − 3β2 =
12
1
Solve using CAS calculator ⇒ β =
3
1
Sunsitute in the first equation ⇒ α =
2
12 a It can be considered as a binomial distribution, with n = 5 and p = 0.2.
Let X be the number of trout caught in 5 days.

i Pr(X = 0) = (0.8)5 = 0.32768 ≈ 0.328

ii Pr(X = 2) = 5C2 (0.2)2 (0.8)3 = 0.2048 ≈ 0.205

iii Probability of at least 1 = Pr(X ≥ 1)

= 1 − Pr(X = 0) = 1 − (0.8)5 = 0.67232 ≈ 0.672

b i For n days, the probability of catching no trout = (0.8)n .

Therefore the probability of catching at least one = 1 − (0.8)n .
Consider 1 − (0.8)n > 0.9
which is equivalent to (0.8)n < 0.1
Using a calculator gives n = 11

ii For n days, the probability of catching no trout = (0.8)n .

For n days, the probability of catching one trout = 0.2n(0.8)n−1 (binomial
distribution).
Probability of catching more than one = 1 − 0.2n(0.8)n−1 − (0.8)n .

412
Use a calculator to find the value of n. It is 18 days.

413
Solutions to investigations
1 ■ For n = 1 he cannot walk over the cliff

■ For n = 2 there is one case +1 + 1 =+2 (means over the cliff) The probability of this
1 1 1
is is × =
3 3 9
■ For n = 3
1
• +1 + 1 = +2 (He only needs 2) Probability =
9
• −1 + 1 + 1 = +1 He does not go over.

• +1 − 1 + 1 = +1 He does not go over.

1
With n = 3 the probability that he goes over is
9
■ For n = 4
1
• +1 + 1 = +2 (He only needs 2 to the right to go over) Probability =
9
2 1 1 1 2
• −1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = +2 He goes over. Probability = × × × =
3 3 3 3 81
2
• +1 − 1 + 1 + 1 = 2 He goes over. Probability =
81
13
Probability that he goes over if he takes 4 steps =
81
■ For n = 5
1
• +1 + 1 = +2 (He only needs 2 to the right to go over) Probability =
9
2 1 1 1 2
• −1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = +2 He goes over. Probability = × × × =
3 3 3 3 81
2
• +1 − 1 + 1 + 1 = 2 He goes over. Probability =
81
• −1 − 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 1(He does not go over)

• 1 − 1 − 1 + 1 + 1 = 1(He does not go over)

13
Probability that he goes over if he takes 5 steps =
81
■ For n = 6

414
 1
• +1 + 1 = +2 (He only needs 2 to the right to go over) Probability =
9
2 1 1 1 2
• −1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = +2 He goes over. Probability = × × × =
3 3 3 3 81
2
• +1 − 1 + 1 + 1 = 2 He goes over. Probability =
81
• −1 − 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 2(He goes over)

• 1 − 1 − 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 2(He goes over)

13
Probability that he goes over if he takes 5 steps =
81

2 Points in the plane

a i The probability of a point in the unit square being less than 0.5 from the origin
π
=
16

415
 ii

1
b i The exact answer is
4

416
 ii

3 Suppose the people are A, B, C, D, E, F, and that A is the one hermit first infected. He
visits another hermit who is not immune, say B, who is then infected.
A is now immune and B has probability 1/5 of visiting an immune hermit, and 4/5 of
visiting a person who is not immune. This means there is probability 1/5 that only 2 get
the disease.

417
 Six people, one immune, 2nd person visits another at random.
Number who will catch the disease = N:
1
Probability that 2 get the disease: Pr(N = 2) = = 0.2
5
Probability that 3 get the disease:Pr(N = 3) = 0.8(0.4) = 0.32
Probability that 4 get the disease:Pr(N = 4) = 0.8(0.6)(0.6) = 0.288
Probability that 5 get the disease:Pr(N = 5) = 0.8(0.6)(0.4)(0.8) = 0.1536
Probability that 6 get the disease:Pr(N = 6) = 0.8(0.6)(0.2)(0.1) = 0.0384
Expected value = 2 × 0.2 + 3 × 0.32 + 4 × 0.288 + 5×).1536 + 6 × 0.0384 = 3.5104

Simulation A dice or a calculator can be used with random integer values between
2 and 6. Start with an arbitrary number and repeat random operation until a number is
repeated.

4 Buffon’s needle

Python3 program simulating Buffon’s needle

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Printout of results for 100000 throws

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