Indian Institute of Information Technology, Allahabad
Department of management Studies
MBA=2022-24
Forecasting Planning for Bajaj Finance Limited.
Submitted by:
Mayank Verma
Imb2022042
Submitted to:
Dr. Shashi Kant Rai
DOMS-IIITA
Bajaj Finance Ltd. The more you solve, the more you win
About the Company:
Bajaj Finance is one of India's largest and most diverse non-banking financial institutions.
(NBFCs). We have altered our operations over the past 35 years by developing a diverse
product range, having a strong regional presence, and supporting a wide client base. We have
also significantly increased our presence on e-commerce platforms and are at the forefront of
digital technology adoption to match changing client demands. Our strong risk management
and portfolio monitoring structure strengthens our business strategy. Our gross and net non-
performing assets (NPAs) are among the lowest in the sector, and our capital adequacy ratio
is far above regulatory standards.
Revenue forecasting:
Based on Bajaj Finance Limited's current revenue growth rate of 22% per year and predicted to grow
faster than 20% per year, it can be anticipated that the company's revenue will continue to expand at a
similar rate for the next ten years. However, it is vital to remember that the growth rate can be
influenced by a variety of factors, including the economic situation and any supply chain restrictions.
According to the most recent financial documents, Bajaj Finance Limited's revenue in FY2022 was
INR 1267,584 Million. As a result, with a 22% annual growth rate, the company's revenue might
reach INR 2,437,785 million in the following ten years.
Revenue Forecasting Quartey:
date Revenue Forecast(Revenue) Lower Confidence Bound(Revenue) Upper Confidence Bound(Revenue)
Dec-19 7,020
Mar-20 7,227
Jun-20 6,648
Sep-20 6,513
Dec-20 6,656
Mar-21 6,851
Jun-21 6,742
Sep-21 7,731
Dec-21 8,537
Mar-22 8,627
Jun-22 9,281
Sep-22 9,970
Dec-22 10,784 10,784 10,784 10,784
Mar-23 11,547 10,787 12,307
Jun-23 12,370 11,000 13,740
Sep-23 13,193 11,002 15,383
Dec-23 14,016 10,854 17,177
Mar-24 14,838 10,583 19,093
Jun-24 15,661 10,203 21,119
Sep-24 16,484 9,725 23,243
Dec-24 17,307 9,155 25,459
Mar-25 18,130 8,500 27,759
Jun-25 18,952 7,764 30,141
Sep-25 19,775 6,952 32,598
Dec-25 20,598 6,067 35,129
Mar-26 21,421 5,112 37,730
Jun-26 22,244 4,090 40,398
Sep-26 23,067 3,003 43,130
Dec-26 23,889 1,853 45,926
Mar-27 24,712 643 48,782
Jun-27 25,535 -627 51,697
Sep-27 26,358 -1,954 54,670
Dec-27 27,181 -3,337 57,698
Mar-28 28,004 -4,774 60,781
Jun-28 28,826 -6,265 63,917
Sep-28 29,649 -7,807 67,106
Dec-28 30,472 -9,401 70,345
Mar-29 31,295 -11,044 73,634
Jun-29 32,118 -12,736 76,971
Sep-29 32,941 -14,476 80,357
Dec-29 33,763 -16,263 83,790
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
12/01/2019 03/01/2021 06/01/2022 09/01/2023 12/01/2024 03/01/2026 06/01/2027 09/01/2028 12/01/2029
Revenue Forecast(Revenue)
Lower Confidence Bound(Revenue) Upper Confidence Bound(Revenue)
Revenue analysis of Quarterly data for 10 years:
The data supplied displays Bajaj Finance's historical revenue statistics from December 2019 to
December 2029, as well as predicted revenue figures for the following ten years. According to the
statistics supplied, Bajaj Finance's income has been continuously increasing throughout the years.
Revenue in December 2022 was INR 10,784 million, with INR 20,598 million predicted by December
2025. Forecasted income numbers show a constant increase trend, with INR 33,763 million expected
in December 2029. It is crucial to remember, however, that these are simply estimates, and real
income statistics may be influenced by a variety of factors such as economic circumstances and
competition.
Interest Forecasting:
According to the current interest rates supplied by Bajaj Finance, rates may change in the future due
to a variety of variables such as inflation, market circumstances, and RBI policies. However, given the
company's track record of regularly providing low interest rates, it is probable that Bajaj Finance will
continue to provide excellent rates over the next ten years. It is also crucial to note that interest rates
may fluctuate depending on tenure and age category. As a result, investors should examine current
interest rates and select a tenure and age group that best meets their investing objectives. Furthermore,
the Bajaj Finance FD has CRISIL and ICRA AAA ratings, making it a safe investment option for
investors seeking consistent returns, income statistics may be influenced by a variety of factors such
as economic circumstances and competition.
Timelin Interes Forecast(Interes Lower Confidence Upper Confidence
e t t) Bound(Interest) Bound(Interest)
Dec-19 2,489
Mar-20 2,547
Jun-20 2,498
Sep-20 2,358
Dec-20 2,363
Mar-21 2,196
Jun-21 2,254
Sep-21 2,398
Dec-21 2,535
Mar-22 2,563
Jun-22 2,645
Sep-22 2,971
Dec-22 3,351 3,351 3,351 3,351
Mar-23 3,736 3,529 3,944
Jun-23 4,132 3,704 4,560
Sep-23 4,528 3,822 5,233
Dec-23 4,924 3,896 5,951
Mar-24 5,319 3,930 6,708
Jun-24 5,715 3,930 7,500
Sep-24 6,111 3,897 8,324
Dec-24 6,506 3,836 9,177
Mar-25 6,902 3,746 10,059
Jun-25 7,298 3,630 10,966
Sep-25 7,694 3,489 11,899
Dec-25 8,089 3,324 12,855
Mar-26 8,485 3,136 13,834
Jun-26 8,881 2,926 14,835
Sep-26 9,277 2,695 15,858
Dec-26 9,672 2,444 16,901
Mar-27 10,068 2,172 17,964
Jun-27 10,464 1,881 19,046
Sep-27 10,860 1,572 20,147
Dec-27 11,255 1,243 21,267
Mar-28 11,651 898 22,404
Jun-28 12,047 534 23,559
Sep-28 12,442 154 24,731
Dec-28 12,838 -243 25,920
Mar-29 13,234 -657 27,124
Jun-29 13,630 -1,086 28,345
Sep-29 14,025 -1,531 29,582
Dec-29 14,421 -1,992 30,834
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-5,000
12/01/2019 02/01/2021 04/01/2022 06/01/2023 08/01/2024 10/01/2025 12/01/2026 02/01/2028 04/01/2029
Interest Forecast(Interest)
Lower Confidence Bound(Interest) Upper Confidence Bound(Interest)
Interest Forecasting Analysis Quartey:
According to the data supplied, Bajaj Finance has increased the interest rates on its fixed deposits by
up to 30 basis points as of October 7, 2022. Bajaj Finance's fixed deposit interest rates have been
continuously competitive, and the firm is projected to continue giving good rates in the future. It is
crucial to remember, however, that interest rates may change due to a variety of variables such as
inflation, market circumstances, and RBI policy. As a result, investors should examine current
interest rates and select a term that meets their investing objectives. The presented interest
forecasting data demonstrates a constant increase trend in Bajaj Finance's interest rates, with the
predicted interest rate for December 2029 being INR 14,421. These are, however, simply estimates,
and real interest rates may be influenced by a variety of factors such as economic circumstances and
competition. As a result, before making any investment decisions, investors should exercise caution
and keep a close eye on market circumstances.
Net Profit Forecasting:
It is determined by a variety of factors, including market circumstances, competition, and regulatory
changes. However, based on the company's current financial performance, which has witnessed
constant rise in net profit, it is reasonable to expect Bajaj Finance to do well in the future. The
company's consolidated net profit increased by 39.9% to INR 29.73 billion in the quarter ended
December 31, 2022. Bajaj Finance's net profit increased 88% year on year to INR 2,781 crore in the
second quarter of FY23. Analysts estimate that the company's profits will expand steadily in the
future years. As a result, with a good track record of growth and a bright outlook, Bajaj Finance is
projected to maintain substantial net profits in the future.
Timelin Net Forecast(Net Lower Confidence Bound(Net Upper Confidence Bound(Net
e Profit Profit) Profit) Profit)
Dec-19 1,614
Mar-20 948
Jun-20 962
Sep-20 965
Dec-20 1,146
Mar-21 1,347
Jun-21 1,002
Sep-21 1,481
Dec-21 2,125
Mar-22 2,420
Jun-22 2,596
Sep-22 2,781
Dec-22 2,973 2,973 2,973 2,973
Mar-23 3,165 2,528 3,803
Jun-23 3,358 2,076 4,640
Sep-23 3,550 1,508 5,593
Dec-23 3,743 837 6,649
Mar-24 3,935 73 7,798
Jun-24 4,128 -776 9,032
Sep-24 4,320 -1,704 10,344
Dec-24 4,513 -2,705 11,731
Mar-25 4,705 -3,776 13,186
Jun-25 4,898 -4,912 14,707
Sep-25 5,090 -6,111 16,292
Dec-25 5,283 -7,370 17,936
Mar-26 5,475 -8,687 19,637
Jun-26 5,668 -10,059 21,394
Sep-26 5,860 -11,485 23,205
Dec-26 6,052 -12,963 25,068
Mar-27 6,245 -14,491 26,981
Jun-27 6,437 -16,068 28,943
Sep-27 6,630 -17,693 30,952
Dec-27 6,822 -19,364 33,008
Mar-28 7,015 -21,080 35,110
Jun-28 7,207 -22,841 37,255
Sep-28 7,400 -24,644 39,444
Dec-28 7,592 -26,490 41,675
Mar-29 7,785 -28,378 43,947
Jun-29 7,977 -30,306 46,260
Sep-29 8,170 -32,274 48,613
Dec-29 8,362 -34,281 51,005
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
12/01/2019 02/01/2021 04/01/2022 06/01/2023 08/01/2024 10/01/2025 12/01/2026 02/01/2028 04/01/2029
Net Profit Forecast(Net Profit)
Lower Confidence Bound(Net Profit) Upper Confidence Bound(Net Profit)
Net Profit Analysis Quartey:
Based on the statistics in the table, Bajaj Finance's net profit estimate for the next several years
appears to be favourable, with net profit predicted to improve every quarter. The net profit for
March 2023 is expected to be INR 3,165 crore, with a lower confidence bound of INR 2,528 crore and
an upper confidence bound of INR 3,803 crore. However, the company's net profit is predicted to fall
to INR 4,128 crore in the June 2024 quarter, with a lower confidence range of INR -776 crore and an
upper confidence bound of INR 9,032 crore. Overall, Bajaj Finance's net profit estimate indicates that
the firm will continue to develop in the next years.
Financial Profit Forecasting:
Based on the company's current financial performance, earnings at Bajaj Finance are predicted to
expand during the next ten years. The company's consolidated net profit increased by 28.3% year on
year to INR 15.97 billion in the third quarter of FY22. Bajaj Finance has already built a significant
market position in the NBFC business, and its MSME/personal loans category is projected to develop
further. Furthermore, the company's efforts to compete in a changing business climate will most likely
assist it in maintaining its growth pace. It is crucial to remember, however, that market circumstances,
competition, and regulatory changes can all have an influence on the company's financial success. As
a result, while making investing selections, investors should take caution and keep these aspects in
mind.
Timelin Financing Forecast(Financin Lower Confidence Upper Confidence
e Profit g Profit) Bound(Financing Profit) Bound(Financing Profit)
Dec-19 2,241
Mar-20 1,359
Jun-20 1,392
Sep-20 1,370
Dec-20 1,632
Mar-21 1,908
Jun-21 1,454
Sep-21 2,098
Dec-21 2,962
Mar-22 3,366
Jun-22 3,612
Sep-22 3,871
Dec-22 4,129 4,129 4,129 4,129
Mar-23 4,390 3,538 5,242
Jun-23 4,651 2,937 6,366
Sep-23 4,912 2,181 7,644
Dec-23 5,174 1,288 9,059
Mar-24 5,435 270 10,599
Jun-24 5,696 -861 12,253
Sep-24 5,957 -2,098 14,011
Dec-24 6,218 -3,433 15,869
Mar-25 6,479 -4,860 17,819
Jun-25 6,740 -6,376 19,856
Sep-25 7,001 -7,975 21,978
Dec-25 7,263 -9,655 24,180
Mar-26 7,524 -11,412 26,459
Jun-26 7,785 -13,243 28,812
Sep-26 8,046 -15,145 31,237
Dec-26 8,307 -17,118 33,732
Mar-27 8,568 -19,157 36,293
Jun-27 8,829 -21,262 38,920
Sep-27 9,090 -23,430 41,611
Dec-27 9,351 -25,660 44,363
Mar-28 9,613 -27,951 47,177
Jun-28 9,874 -30,301 50,049
Sep-28 10,135 -32,709 52,979
Dec-28 10,396 -35,174 55,966
Mar-29 10,657 -37,694 59,008
Jun-29 10,918 -40,268 62,104
Sep-29 11,179 -42,895 65,254
Dec-29 11,440 -45,575 68,456
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
12/01/2019 02/01/2021 04/01/2022 06/01/2023 08/01/2024 10/01/2025 12/01/2026 02/01/2028 04/01/2029
Financing Profit Forecast(Financing Profit)
Lower Confidence Bound(Financing Profit) Upper Confidence Bound(Financing Profit)
Financial Profit Forecasting analysis:
Based on the statistics in the table, Bajaj Finance's financing profit projection for the next several
years appears to be favourable, with a rise in financing profit projected every quarter. For December
2021, the anticipated financing profit is INR 2,962 crore, with a lower confidence bound of INR 2,962
crore and an upper confidence bound of INR 2,962 crore. In December 2029, the company's
financing profit is predicted to reach INR 11,440 crore, with a lower confidence range of INR -45,575
crores and an upper confidence bound of INR 68,456 crore. Overall, Bajaj Finance's financing profit
prediction indicates that the firm will continue to develop and create profits in the next years.
Yearly Analysis of Revenue Forecasting:
Annual forecasting is the practise of projecting future trends and results for a set period, often
a year. Businesses, investors, and analysts use it to plan budgets, make business choices, and
spot trends. Forecasting is analysing past data and identifying patterns and trends that may be
utilised to generate future forecasts. This may be accomplished using both qualitative and
quantitative techniques such as time-series analysis, regression models, and econometric
inference. Forecasts are not always accurate and must be altered on a regular basis to keep up
with changing market circumstances. Analysts must also be aware of the data sets' and
analytic tools' limitations.
Timelin Interes Forecast(Interest Lower Confidence Upper Confidence
e t ) Bound(Interest) Bound(Interest)
Mar-15 2,274
Mar-16 2,959
Mar-17 3,853
Mar-18 4,696
Mar-19 6,723
Mar-20 9,608
Mar-21 9,519
Mar-22 9,848 9,848 9,848 9,848
Mar-23 11,965 10,603 13,327
Mar-24 13,214 11,841 14,586
Mar-25 14,463 13,079 15,846
Mar-26 15,712 14,317 17,106
Mar-27 16,960 15,555 18,366
Mar-28 18,209 16,792 19,627
Mar-29 19,458 18,030 20,887
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
01/01/2015 01/01/2017 01/01/2019 01/01/2021 01/01/2023 01/01/2025 01/01/2027 01/01/2029
Revenue Forecast(Revenue)
Lower Confidence Bound(Revenue) Upper Confidence Bound(Revenue)
Revenue Analysis Yearly:
According to the data supplied, Bajaj Finance's income is expected to expand steadily over the next
10 years. The revenue for March 2022 is predicted to be INR 31,633 crore, with a lower confidence
bound of INR 31,633 crore, an upper confidence bound of INR 31,633 crore, and a forecasted
revenue of INR 31,633 crore. Revenue is predicted to increase to INR 59,484 crore by March 2029,
with a lower confidence range of INR 53,940 crore and an upper confidence bound of INR 65,028
crore. Annual growth rates are predicted to range from 22% to 33%, which is quicker than the
expected yearly growth rate of 20%. According to the data, Bajaj Finance's income will continue to
increase at a rapid pace over the next 10 years. It is affected by a variety of internal and external
variables, including competition, regulatory changes, and economic situations. However, based on the
company's previous financial performance, it is projected that Bajaj Finance would continue to
prioritise cost-cutting efforts to increase efficiency and profitability. Loan losses and reserves for bad
loans have reduced in recent quarters, demonstrating that the corporation is effectively controlling its
expenditures. However, concerns about loan growth slowing and net interest margin compression
might have an influence on the company's costs in the future. As a result, while making investing
selections, investors should keep these aspects in mind and exercise caution.
Interest Analysis Yearly:
Interest rates are sometimes expressed as effective annual interest rates, which account for the
effect of compounding. One area where interest rates are examined is the Federal Reserve's
balance sheet. Additionally, the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates can offer information
on the par yield on a securities dependent on its time to maturity. It's crucial to remember that
interest rates might change depending on a variety of economic variables, so keep a watch on
current trends and projections.
Timelin Interes Forecast(Interest Lower Confidence Upper Confidence
e t ) Bound(Interest) Bound(Interest)
Mar-15 2,274
Mar-16 2,959
Mar-17 3,853
Mar-18 4,696
Mar-19 6,723
Mar-20 9,608
Mar-21 9,519
Mar-22 9,848 9,848 9,848 9,848
Mar-23 11,965 10,603 13,327
Mar-24 13,214 11,841 14,586
Mar-25 14,463 13,079 15,846
Mar-26 15,712 14,317 17,106
Mar-27 16,960 15,555 18,366
Mar-28 18,209 16,792 19,627
Mar-29 19,458 18,030 20,887
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
01/01/2015 01/01/2017 01/01/2019 01/01/2021 01/01/2023 01/01/2025 01/01/2027 01/01/2029
Interest Forecast(Interest)
Lower Confidence Bound(Interest) Upper Confidence Bound(Interest)
Interest Analysis Yearly:
According to the statistics presented, Bajaj Finance's interest rate has been progressively growing
over the last ten years. The interest rate rose from 2,274 to 9,848 between 2015 and 2022. The
interest rate in 2023 is expected to be about 11,965, while in 2024, it is expected to be around
13,214. The lower and higher confidence bounds for these forecasts are 10,603 and 11,841,
respectively, while the lower and upper confidence bounds are 13,327 and 14,586, respectively. The
interest rate is likely to rise further in the future years, with a predicted rate of 19,458 in 2029.
Expense Forecasting Analysis Yearly:
This will provide you a clear picture of your regular spending habits and assist you in
identifying any places where you might save money. Financial forecasting is the act of
projecting how a company will perform in the future, including income and costs, and it is an
important tool for making sound business choices. Budget forecasting is another strategy for
estimating future revenue and spending, with the goal of providing a quantitative assessment
of your company's financial health. Using these strategies, you can produce a detailed yearly
projection that will assist you in making sound financial decisions for your company.
Timelin Expenses Forecast(Expenses Lower Confidence Upper Confidence
e + +) Bound(Expenses +) Bound(Expenses +)
Mar-15 1,752
Mar-16 2,354
Mar-17 3,250
Mar-18 4,115
Mar-19 5,454
Mar-20 9,159
Mar-21 10,839
Mar-22 11,880 11,880 11,880 11,880
Mar-23 13,505 11,963 15,048
Mar-24 15,081 13,005 17,156
Mar-25 16,656 14,157 19,155
Mar-26 18,231 15,370 21,092
Mar-27 19,806 16,623 22,988
Mar-28 21,381 17,906 24,856
Mar-29 22,956 19,210 26,701
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
01/01/2015 01/01/2017 01/01/2019 01/01/2021 01/01/2023 01/01/2025 01/01/2027 01/01/2029
Expenses + Forecast(Expenses +)
Lower Confidence Bound(Expenses +) Upper Confidence Bound(Expenses +)
Expense Analysis Yearly:
Looking at the data from Bajaj Finance's Expense forecasting annual statistics for the last ten years,
we can see that expenses rise progressively over time. Forecasted expenditures are estimated using
statistical techniques, and the lower and higher confidence limits show the range within which
actual spending may fall with a given degree of certainty.
We can see from the data that costs have more than quadrupled in the previous five years, from
March 15 to March 20. The projected costs for the following eight years show a continuous growth,
with expenses reaching about 23,000 by March 30.
It is critical for Bajaj Finance to keep track of their costs and precisely estimate them in order to
make educated financial decisions. They can discover areas where they can cut costs and optimise
their operations by analysing their spending.
Net Profit Forecasting Yearly Analysis:
Timelin Net Forecast(Net Lower Confidence Bound(Net Upper Confidence Bound(Net
e Profit Profit) Profit) Profit)
Mar-15 898
Mar-16 1279
Mar-17 1836
Mar-18 2496
Mar-19 3995
Mar-20 5264
Mar-21 4420
Mar-22 7028 7028 7028.00 7028.00
Mar-23 7315.888534 6219.09 8412.69
Mar-24 8151.779209 7046.17 9257.39
Mar-25 8987.669883 7873.18 10102.15
Mar-26 9823.560558 8700.13 10946.99
Mar-27 10659.45123 9527.01 11791.89
Mar-28 11495.34191 10353.82 12636.86
Mar-29 12331.23258 11180.57 13481.90
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
01/01/2015 01/01/2017 01/01/2019 01/01/2021 01/01/2023 01/01/2025 01/01/2027 01/01/2029
Net Profit Forecast(Net Profit)
Lower Confidence Bound(Net Profit) Upper Confidence Bound(Net Profit)
Net Profit Yearly Analysis:
The following observations may be made based on the presented data of Bajaj Finance's net profit
projection yearly data of 10 years:
Except for a dip in 2021, Bajaj Finance's net profit has constantly climbed throughout the
years.
The anticipated net profit for 2022 is 7028, which is the same as the reported net profit for
the year.
Net profit is expected to be 7315.89 in 2023, with a lower confidence bound of 6219.09 and
an upper confidence bound of 8412.69.
The expected net profit in 2024 is $8151.78, with a lower confidence bound of 7046.17 and
an upper confidence bound of 9257.39.
Net profit is expected to be 8987.67 in 2025, with a lower confidence range of 7873.18 and
an upper confidence bound of 10102.15.
Net profit is expected to be 9823.56 in 2026, with a lower confidence bound of 8700.13 and
an upper confidence bound of 10946.99.
Net profit is expected to be 10659.45 in 2027, with a lower confidence bound of 9527.01
and an upper confidence bound of 11791.89.
Net profit is expected to be 11495.34 in 2028, with a lower confidence bound of 10353.82
and an upper confidence bound of 12636.86.
Net profit is expected to be 12331.23 in 2029, with a lower confidence bound of 11180.57
and an upper confidence bound of 13481.90.
It should be noted that these projections are based on historical data and should be
regarded as estimations rather than real predictions.
