Mega Trends Report 2021
Mega Trends Report 2021
Strategic Directions
F
20 The unpredictability of the past year continues to
20
reshape long-held conventions about the importance of
infrastructure. The immense challenges we face from
climate change, global pandemics and aging infrastructure
systems have amplified the need for more reliability and
resilience in our critical systems.
4
up their own ambitions to keep pace — or risk losing business to
unregulated competitors.
10
Next-Level Reliability
of extreme weather events, and increasingly distributed assets.
Additionally, digitalization and analytics will play a critical role
in providing the insights necessary to reimagine the future and
ensure secure, reliable long-term service.
Through Resilience This year, we identified three megatrends that build on the
themes of recent years — but throughout this epochal year,
our professionals’ market insights and client interactions have
revealed notable shifts in their trajectories and focus, examined
closely in these sections:
15
Turning Data into Action
3. Turning Data into Action
To learn more, visit bv.com, where you can view and download
our entire series of Strategic Directions reports at bv.com/reports.
M
ore efficient and sustainable operations changing market dynamics. While utilities and
have long been goals for utilities, but many of their customers have varying ESG goals,
this has only become more challenging decarbonization has emerged as a primary
in the era of climate change. Utilities are being effort for many. In just the past two years, major
tasked with adapting faster than ever while also decarbonization announcements — many
addressing more frequent extreme weather pledged outside of regulatory mandates — have
events, natural disasters and regulatory become the norm among the world’s largest
structures that often do not keep pace with utilities.
While Xcel Energy was an early mover in 2018 with its own net-
zero carbon plans, zero-carbon plans have been announced
by many of the biggest U.S. utilities, including Duke Energy,
Dominion, Southern Company and Ameren; at the end of 2020,
70 percent of the largest U.S. electric and gas utilities had
disclosed net-zero emission or equivalent targets1. Companies
of all sizes are embracing sustainability not only in the face of
climate change but also as the workforce of the future demands
Figure 1
to know what their employers are doing about these issues.
Does your organization have
either carbon reduction, The key driver for utility decarbonization pledges is that
greenhouse gas emissions sustainability has rapidly ascended as a priority for large
reduction, or renewables corporate customers and other stakeholders, intensifying market
goals? (Select all that apply). drivers for decarbonization. Besides 100-percent renewable and
Source: Black & Veatch net-zero commitments from Fortune 100 companies such as
Amazon, Google, Maersk, Nestle Global and Dell — all part of the
53.3% Yes, RE100 initiative — net-zero goals from telecom providers such
as T-Mobile, Sprint and AT&T, along with the departure of major
original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) from the coal power
separate from any
regulatory mandate sector, like General Electric, Siemens and Toshiba, reflect the
impact of sustainability among corporate leaders. Black & Veatch
recently released its 2020-2023 Sustainability Strategy, which
40.5% Yes, outlines the company’s path towards a more sustainable future.
state regulatory mandate
On the municipal front, cities large and small around the globe
have net-zero goals. 2020 also saw a marked uptick in action
15.2% Yes, from shareholders as well as from financial giants such as
Blackrock, which declared climate risk as a financial risk in an
local regulatory mandate
open letter from its CEO, Larry Fink. Approximately US$500 billion
was committed to decarbonization efforts in 2020, up 9 percent
15.2% No from 20192. Additionally, an increasing number of financial
regulators are exploring ways to address the systemic risk of
climate change in financial markets. These trends are driving
action from both forward-looking utilities and even the sector’s
most recalcitrant actors.
Figure 2
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
We are pushing our capital towards clean energy.
Source: Black & Veatch
Top-level management in our organization The use of resources within the water cycle is
demonstrates commitment to innovation and clearly mapped and documented to provide
a culture of innovation is fostered at all levels transparency in relation to the efficient use of
79.6% water, nutrients, organics and energy
64.1%
70.3%
32.7%
Our organization has a clear vision and goals
established for more sustainable modes of We maximize the value of nutrients and organics
operation in the future in the water cycle by promoting the production
87.5% of products with a high value to society
46.2%
68.8%
38.9%
We collaborate with other organizations,
including those outside of the water industry, Water, nutrients, organics and energy are
to explore opportunities for improving the efficiently cycled within our local economy
efficient management of resources to maximize the inherent value of these
components within the water cycle
62.2%
45.5%
55.0%
35.6%
We maximize the value of water in the water
cycle by promoting re-use and cycling of water
at it’s highest value Percent selecting strongly or somewhat agree
54.4 %
● Less than 500,000 ● 500,000 or more
39.3%
R
eliable service always has been core to every utility’s mandate, but achieving
this is becoming more complex in the face of aging infrastructure and
increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events. As this report
was being drafted, the second major hurricane of November (Category 3 or
higher) made landfall in Central America as a Category 5 storm, with wind speeds
accelerating from Category 1 to Category 4 in just 24 hours over abnormally warm
seas. Similarly, wildfires continued to burn in parts of Colorado, months after the
historic end to fire season.
49.5%
Asset management
48.6%
Improving resilience
37.2%
Integrating distributed
energy resources (DERs)
34.4%
Physical security and
cybersecurity
24.8%
Common distribution
automation plan
85.1%
resilience challenge from climate change, as more frequent
droughts and unpredictable patterns of intense precipitation
affect their ability to rely on reservoirs and other surface water
resources while they also have to tackle aging infrastructure and
Water conservation and/
or drought management the need to manage aging workforce. Whether it’s less rain in
increasingly populous regions or inundations from increasingly
68.1%
Scenario planning
powerful storms, more than half of respondents to our 2020
water industry survey are actively planning for climate change
(Figure 5), employing strategies to bolster resilience that include
seeking new groundwater sources — including investigating
55.3%
Climate change/variability
technologies for groundwater
recharging — and adding
reuse capabilities to help
Figure 6
diversify supply (Figure 6).
31.9%
New surface water supplies
One resilience strategy that
What steps are you taking
to bolster water supply
is becoming increasingly resiliency? (Select all that
important for both electric apply).
31.9% and water utilities is the
pursuit of expanded and
Source: Black & Veatch
42.9%
New reservoir storage
more integrated planning
8.5%
We do not have a water
across their business silos.
Water utilities are embracing
programmatic solutions Seeking new
supply plan to mapping out resilience, groundwater sources
including the popular One
Water approach advocated
by the U.S. Water Alliance, as
38.8%
Adding reuse capabilities
well as the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency’s (EPA)
integrated planning process. 26.5%
Seeking new surface water
Electric utilities are broadening
sources
their planning lens to look at
12.2%
integrated resource blueprints
that include supply and
demand across central and Seeking new desalination/
distributed assets. Further still, brackish sources
many utilities are expediently
revisiting winterization and
climate adaptation programs 20.4%
We are not taking any steps
as the impacts of the grid
collapse in Texas reverberates
Regulatory uncertainty
impacts our ability to...
39.2%
Recover operating costs and
The clear growing threat — and cost — of prolonged outages,
experienced in Texas, California, New York and other storm-
provide satisfactory earnings prone areas, is prompting policymakers and regulators to
consider rate-basing expensive hardening investments. As
26.8%
Accurately predict
with utilities across all sectors, the ability to embrace emerging
opportunities to build resilience will be largely determined by
regulators. At the time of publication, reform of ERCOT is an
electricity prices emergency item for Texas lawmakers while the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (FERC) has also launched an investigation
24.7%
Recover large one-time costs
into the rolling blackouts in Texas and elsewhere. The message to
the industry in 2021: Expect regulatory change ahead.
(e.g. storm restoration) in a
Amid rapid climate and technological change, electric utilities
timely fashion
fear that regulators will not be able to keep pace with their
16.5%
need to invest in grid modernization approaches — and, in turn,
cause them to lose customers to third-party competitors such
No, regulatory uncertainty as distributed solar providers, which offer the resilience and
does not have and impact sustainability benefits they seek (Figure 7).
60.2%
any other state. In 2019, the Florida Public Service Commission
adopted new rules that would allow utilities to recover costs of
system-hardening investments. Senate Bill 796, signed into law
by Gov. Ron DeSantis in June 2019, enables the state’s investor- Regulatory
owned utilities to levy a separate charge — outside of its base
rates — to pay for undergrounding vulnerable power lines and
other equipment to make them more resilient to hurricanes. 37.1%
Customer expectations
But reliability and sustainability do remain in conflict. In some
regions, particularly in the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic and
California, utilities increasingly are limited by growing opposition 34.0%
Environmental compliance
to natural gas, highlighting a potential tension between
sustainability and resilience objectives in the near term. This
conflict was on display this year in California, where Pacific
Gas & Electric lacked sufficient gas resources and secondary
33.2%
Technological change
power supply sources to meet the demands of heat waves and
wildfires; and in the Northeast, where the Atlantic Coast Pipeline
was cancelled despite aging existing pipeline infrastructure and
repeated gas price spikes during winter months. But technology
29.0%
Nature (storms, climate
could render this sustainability-versus-resiliency issue moot in change, etc.)
coming years, as demand-side resources and new technologies
such as green hydrogen are brought into more comprehensive
utility planning. 23.9%
Political
21.2%
Market competition
20.8%
Labor
13.5%
Shareholder
L
everaging smart infrastructure to enable data-driven
utility operations has long been a work in progress, and
advancement has been uneven. While many utilities
have access to vast amounts of data thanks to deployment of
advanced metering infrastructure and sensors across new and
legacy assets, only a few early adopters have operationalized
the data in a significant way.
35.1%
54.1% Budget constraints
Lack of resources
or expertise
12.7%
Availability of technology
23.9% 10.7%
Waiting for others to
Communication
network capabilities pave the way
22.9% 5.4%
Unwillingness to look
Data quality or issues
at opportunities in
unregulated arena
For example, the New York Power Authority (NYPA), the largest
state public power utility in the U.S., is actively working to
transform itself into a true “digital utility.” The utility is “one of
the key creators and implementers” of Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s
Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) initiative, which aims to
transform how electricity is produced, bought and sold in New
York state. Recognizing the need to gain comprehensive insight
into the systems within their jurisdiction, the NYPA has invested
in creating digital twins of all their assets, deploying technology
capable of modeling how their systems might react to major
storms, cyberattacks and other risks.
34.6%
Extremely important
45.7%
Very important
14.2%
Moderately important
5.6%
Slightly/not important
Figure 11
Statement agreement: there will be meaningful benefits if
we integrate the planning of all our operational (OT) and
information technology (IT) systems.
Source: Black & Veatch
41.6%
Somewhat agree
25.2%
Neither agree
nor disagree
26.1%
Strongly agree
7.1%
Somewhat/
strongly disagree
Engineering background
10.3% 46.0% ● Much more ● Same importance today
important today
● Somewhat/much less
● Somewhat more important today
36.8% 6.9% important today
The pandemic has proven data and IT solutions Because data analytics is becoming core
are valuable for operations planning, work to utility operations, it has heightened the
prioritization and personnel management. challenges they face in replacing an aging
Digitization has helped facilitate rapid changes workforce. Eight out of 10 utilities see digital
to asset maintenance and incident response savviness as “somewhat more” or “much more”
protocols, including a move to one-person important for new hires today than it was five
crews, different work-staging processes and years ago (Figure 12). But that means utilities are
even quarantining on-site staff at critical competing with the likes of Amazon and Google,
facilities. As in other areas of the economy, it as well as the financial sector, for the latest crop
also has made it possible for large swaths of of data scientists that may not see the utility
utility personnel to work remotely. While some sector as cutting edge.
of these changes may be temporary, the cost
savings and efficiency improvements are likely
to make them permanent in many cases.