14.

Time- Series data visualization

Prof. Pattabiraman.V
SCSE, VIT, Chennai
Overview

 What is forecasting
 Time series & its components
 Smooth a data series
 Moving average
 Exponential smoothing
 Forecast using trend models
 Simple Linear Regression
 Auto-regressive
 Examples of Time Series Visualizations
What Is Forecasting?
 Time series forecasting is performed in nearly every
organization that works with quantifiable data.
 Retail stores forecast sales.
 Energy companies forecast reserves, production,
demand, and prices.
 Educational institutions forecast enrollment.
 Governments forecast tax receipts and spending.
 International financial organizations forecast inflation
and economic activity.
 Forecasting is a fundamental analytic process in
every organization.
Process of predicting a future event
 Forecasting Approaches

Qualitative Methods Quantitative Methods

 Used when situation is  Used when situation is
vague & little data exist „stable‟ & historical data exist
– New products – Existing products
– New technology – Current technology
 Involve intuition,  Involve mathematical
experience techniques
 e.g., forecasting sales  e.g., forecasting sales of
on Internet color televisions
Quantitative
Forecasting Methods
Quantitative
Forecasting

Time Series Causal

Models Models

Moving Exponential Trend

Regression
Average Smoothing Models

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What is a Time Series?

Set of evenly spaced numerical data

 Obtained by observing response variable at regular time

periods

Forecast based only on past values

Assumes that factors influencing past, present, & future

will continue

Example

Year: 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Sales: 78.7 63.5 89.7 93.2 92.1

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Time Series Components

Trend Cyclical

Seasonal Irregular

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 Trend Component

 Persistent, overall upward or downward pattern

 Due to population, technology etc.

 Overall Upward or Downward Movement

 Data Taken Over a Period of Years

Sales

Response

Time
Mo., Qtr., Yr. 8
 Cyclical Component

 Repeating up & down movements.

 Due to interactions of factors influencing economy
 Usually 2-10 years duration.
 May Vary in Length; Usually Lasts 2 - 10 Year

Cycle
Sales
Response

Time
Mo., Qtr., Yr.
 Seasonal Component
 Regular pattern of up & down fluctuations
 Due to weather, customs etc.
 Regular Patterns
 Observed Within One Year

Summer Sales

Response

Mo., Qtr. Time (Monthly or Quarterly)

Irregular Component

 Erratic, unsystematic, „residual‟ fluctuations

 Due to random variation or unforeseen events
 Union strike
 War
 Short duration & non-repeating
Time Series Forecasting

Time
Series

Smoothing No Yes Trend

Methods Trend? Models

Moving Exponential
Average Smoothing

Auto-
Linear Quadratic Exponential Regressive
Moving Average Method

You work for Firestone Tire. You want to smooth

random fluctuations using a 3-period moving average.

Year Sales MA(3) in 1,000

1995 20,000 NA
1996 24,000 (20+24+22)/3 = 22
1997 22,000 (24+22+26)/3 = 24
1998 26,000 (22+26+25)/3 = 24
1999 25,000 NA
Exponential Smoothing
^

You want to forecast attendance for 1998 using

exponential smoothing( = .20).
Ei = W·Yi + (1 - W)·Ei-1
Smoothed Value, Ei Forecast
Time Yi (W = .2) Yi + 1
1995 4 4.0 NA
1996 6 (.2)(6) + (1-.2)(4.0) = 4.4 4.0
1997 5 (.2)(5) + (1-.2)(4.4) = 4.5 4.4
1998 3 (.2)(3) + (1-.2)(4.5) = 4.2 4.5
1999 7 (.2)(7) + (1-.2)(4.2) = 4.8 4.2
2000 NA NA 4.8
Time Series Plot - Line Graph

 A line graph is the simplest way to represent time

series data.
 It is intuitive, easy to create, and helps the viewer
get a quick sense of how something has changed
over time.
 A line graph uses points connected by lines (also
called trend lines) to show how a dependent
variable and independent variable changed.
 For temporal visualizations, time is always the
independent variable, which is plotted on the
horizontal axis. Then the dependent variable is
plotted on the vertical axis.
Time Series Plot - Line Graph
Time Series Plot - Line Graph

 This graph captures the population growth in

Europe and Ireland from 1740 to around 2010.
 It clearly highlights the sudden drop in Ireland‟s
population in the 1840s(resultt of the devastating
Irish Potato Famine, a period of mass starvation,
disease, and emigration in Ireland between 1845
and 1852).
 Note that this graph uses different y-axis scales for
the populations of Europe and Ireland. If the viewer
doesn‟t pay attention to the difference in the
scales, they could be led to the conclusion that
until about 1920, Ireland‟s population was greater
Time Series Plot -
Stacked Area Chart
 An area chart is similar to a line chart in that it
has points connected by straight lines on a two-
dimensional chart.
 It also puts time as the independent variable on
the x-axis and the dependent variable on the y-
axis.
 However, in an area chart, multiple variables are
“stacked” on top of each other, and the area below
each line is colored to represent each variable.
Time Series Plot -
Stacked Area Chart
 This is a stacked area chart showing time series
data of student enrollments in India from 2001-10.
Time Series Plot -
Stacked Area Chart
 Stacked area charts are useful to show how both
a cumulative total and individual components of
that total changed over time.

 The order in which we stack the variables is

crucial because there can sometimes be a
difference in the actual plot versus human
perception.
Time Series Plot -
Bar Chart
 The length of each bar is proportional to the value
of the variable at that point in time.
 A bar chart is the right choice for you when you
wish to look at how the variable moved over time
or when you wish to compare variables versus
each other.
 Grouped or stacked bar charts help you combine
both these purposes in one chart while keeping
your visualization simple and intuitive.
 To avoid clutter and confusion, make sure to not
use more than 3 variables in a stacked or group
bar chart.
Time Series Plot -
Bar Chart

 To avoid clutter and confusion, make sure to not

use more than 3 variables in a stacked or group
bar chart.
Time Series Plot -
Bar Chart

 It is also a good practice to use consistent bold

colors and leave appropriate space between two
bars in a bar chart.
Time Series Plot -
Gantt chart
 A Gantt chart is a horizontal bar chart showing work
completed in a certain period of time with respect to
the time allocated for that particular task.
 Gantt charts are a popular project management tool
since they present a concise snapshot of various tasks
spread across various phases of the project.
 You can show additional information such as the
correlation between individual tasks, resources used in
each task, overlapping resources, etc., by the use of
colors and placement of bars in a Gantt chart.
Time Series Plot -
Gantt chart
Time Series Plot -
Gantt chart
Time Series Plot -
Stream Graph

 A stream graph is essentially a stacked area

graph, but displaced around a central horizontal
axis. The stream graph looks like flowing liquid,
hence the name.
 Stream graphs are great to represent and
compare time series data for multiple variables.
 Stream graphs are, thus, apt for large data sets.
Remember that choice of colors is very important,
especially when there are lots of variables.
 Variables that do not have significantly high
values might tend to get drowned out in the
Time Series Plot -
Stream Graph
 Below is a stream graph showing a randomly chosen
listener‟s last.fm music-listening habits over time.
Time Series Plot -
Heat Map
 Geospatial visualizations often use heat maps since
they quickly help identify “hot spots” or regions of
high concentrations of a given variable.
 When adapted to temporal visualizations, heat
maps can help us explore two levels of time in a 2D
array.
 This heat map visualizes birthdays for babies born
in the United States between 1973 and 1999.
 The vertical axis represents the 31 days in a month
while the horizontal axis represents the 12 months in
a year.
 This chart quickly helps us identify that a large
Time Series Plot -
Polar Area Diagram
 Think beyond the straight line! Sometimes,
time series data can be cyclical — a season in
a year, time of the day, and so on.
 Polar area diagrams help represent the
cyclical nature time series data cleanly.
 A polar diagram looks like a traditional pie
chart, but the sectors differ from each other not
by the size of their angles but by how far they
extend out from the centre of the circle.
 This popular polar area diagram created by
Florence Nightingale shows causes of mortality
Time Series Plot -
Polar Area Diagram
Thank You