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The Early Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic On The Global and Turki

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The Early Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic On The Global and Turki

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Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences

Volume 50 Article 6
Number 9 SI-1

1-1-2020

The early impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global and


Turkish economy
ÖMER AÇIKGÖZ

ASLI GÜNAY

Follow this and additional works at: https://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/medical

Part of the Medical Sciences Commons

Recommended Citation
AÇIKGÖZ, ÖMER and GÜNAY, ASLI (2020) "The early impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global and
Turkish economy," Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences: Vol. 50: No. 9, Article 6. https://doi.org/10.3906/
sag-2004-6
Available at: https://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/medical/vol50/iss9/6

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by TÜBİTAK Academic Journals. It has been accepted for
inclusion in Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences by an authorized editor of TÜBİTAK Academic Journals. For more
information, please contact [email protected].
Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences Turk J Med Sci
(2020) 50: 520-526
http://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/medical/
© TÜBİTAK
Review Article doi:10.3906/sag-2004-6

The early impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global and Turkish economy
Ömer AÇIKGÖZ*, Aslı GÜNAY
1
Department of Economics, Faculty of Political Sciences, Social Sciences University of Ankara, Ankara, Turkey

Received: 01.04.2020 Accepted/Published Online: 11.04.2020 Final Version: 21.04.2020

Background/aim: Individuals infected by the Covid-19 potentially are at risk of health and economic well-being. Today, the Covid-19
is a global issue, and the world economy can be interpreted as almost at the standstill. In this context, this study aims to discuss the po-
tential first reactions of short and long term global economic impacts of the pandemic through sectors by assessing its costs according
to the data announced for both the world and Turkey. In addition, this study tries to put forth possible economic and political scenarios
for the post-pandemic world.
Materials and methods: This is a review article that summarizes the current reports and discussions about the economic consequences
of this historical event, and tries to make some inferences considering them.
Results: This pandemic has severe adverse effects on the employees, customers, supply chains and financial markets, in brief, most
probably it will cause a global economic recession. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainty of the end of this pandemic, both the length and
scale of this contraction are not predictable.
Conclusion: It takes a while for the world economy to recover from the contraction. It seems that this pandemic will lead to a permanent
shift in the world and its politics, especially in health, security, trade, employment, agriculture, manufacturing goods production and
science policies. Since this new world might provide great opportunities for some countries that did not dominate world production
before, governments should develop new strategies to adjust the new world order without much delay.

Keywords: Covid-19, economy, pandemic

1. Introduction comes etymologically from a Greek word “pandemos”, it


Scientists in the field express that Coronaviruses (CoVs) means a global epidemic, it is distinguished from an epi-
are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from demic, which may connote limitation to a smaller area
the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle and a concept pertaining to all people and the public in
East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) and severe acute the world. Therefore, a pandemic is defined as the high-
respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV). The Coronavirus est level of global health emergency and affecting multiple
disease (Covid-19) is a new strain that was discovered in regions of the world. In general, declaring a pandemic is
China in 2019 and has not been previously identified in assumed a historical event since it is not just a health issue,
humans and earth. As of 7 April 2020, the Covid-19 had it has also economic, political and social dimensions at the
infected more than 1.2 million people, killed more than global level.
72 thousand and spread all over the world [1]. The latest If social, political and economic life in the future will
situation has updated by the World Health Organization show different trends after the Covid-19 as predicted,
(WHO) day by day. the future of cities with populations of 30 million will
On 11 March 2020, the WHO officially declared the be questioned further. The values of collective living of
Covid-19 outbreak as a pandemic due to the global spread traditional societies that resist modernism will become
and severity of the disease. Before the Covid-19, there more controversial. While the speed of individualization
are four pandemics in the last two century: “Spanish Flu” which begins with modernism will increase, nation-states
[caused by an Influenza A(H1N1) virus] in 1918, the might feel themselves under more threat. Groups that have
“Asian Flu” [caused by an Influenza A(H2N2) virus] in the same sentimental values as religious communities will
1957, and the “Hong Kong Flu” [caused by an Influenza lose their momentum and they will begin to transform
A(H3N2) virus] in 1968 plus swine flu in 2009. Pandemic into an individual nature as well. In addition, multi-
* Correspondence: [email protected]
520

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
AÇIKGÖZ and GÜNAY / Turk J Med Sci

storey buildings and crowded cities will lose their speed increase consumer demand and investments. Nevertheless,
of development, the existing clean water networks and the estimating the economic costs from a global disease is
apartment life where the community lives together will now ambiguous since the pandemic has spiral effects
become questionable due to the threat of life safety. As both on the national and global economy that means
crowded cities will tend to lose their significance achieved any economic shock to one country is quickly spread to
after the industrial revolution, cleanliness, health, and other countries through the increased trade and financial
hygiene will have a priority in social life. Moreover, linkages associated with globalization [2]. According
both communities and countries might disrupt some to the World Bank (WB) report published in 2013, “…
democratic values and fundamental human rights; hence, a severe pandemic would resemble a global war in its
authoritarianism might become widespread by increased sudden, profound, and widespread impact,” and a severe
security measures. The future of healthcare sector, the pandemic could cause economic losses equal to nearly 5%
personal and professional rights of its professionals, ethic of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or more than $3
values like physicians right to refuse medical treatment trillion [3]. The United Nations Conference on Trade and
for life-threatening illness or life-sustaining, and also Development (UNCTAD) announced that the Covid-19
the establishment of hospitals for untreated illness will will likely cost the global economy at least $2 trillion in
be among the main issues to be discussed soon but 2020 [4].
most probably these future planning will cost the world In accordance with the predictions presented above,
economy. especially because of their economic contents, it is necessary
Old habits related to consuming unpackaged foods and to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the
sales market conditions will not be able to pursue as it is, global and Turkish economy. Some studies in the literature
and new protection mechanisms such as preservation and are examining the global or regional economic costs of
packaging for the nutritious food will bring new costs to diseases such as SARS [2,5–8]. In addition, the World
the consumers. With the very high concern for cleanliness Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation published a report
and health, the future of paper money and coins circulated about pandemic risk even long before the pandemic [3,9].
for the transactions will also be discussed further, and Recently, the media and some foundations have reported
governments will create new customs walls. Hence, several reports on the economic consequences of the
countries’ trade amount and speed will be under threat, Covid-19 pandemic but so far, there has been no study
and countries ensuring the hygiene standard comparing analysing the potential consequences of a pandemic on
to others will gain a competitive advantage. On the other the world and the Turkish economy in the literature yet. In
hand, global viruses will be seen as a threat like a nuclear this context, the primary purpose of this study is to fill this
attack or global terrorism since their impacts on the human gap by presenting the likely macroeconomic effects of the
and the world are similarly very destructive as seen in the latest pandemic according to the data announced for both
Covid-19. For this reason, countries that could develop a the world and Turkey. Besides, this study aims to forecast
biological defence system or infrastructure for the virus the possible short and long term effects of the pandemic
attack will have more power in the world. However, if they on the global economy and politics by taking into account
will use this power to achieve their national and imperial the current discussions.
goals, this will most likely create even more inequality
among the countries. 2. Global economic costs of pandemic
Today, the spreading of the Covid-19 virus is China, where the Covid-19 virus originated in, is the most
having gradual effects like major economic depression. populous country with nearly 1.4 billion residents1 and
Economically, if countries hit by sudden and unexpected the world’s second biggest economy, with a GDP of $13.6
disease, countries’ revenue will drop due to the fall trillion2. China has been fighting the Covid-19 pandemic
in overall economic activities. The contraction of the since December 2019 but this battle devastated China’s
economy would begin with the diminishing of the travel economy in the first quarter of 2020. China is the crucial
and tourism sectors. Then, their widespread effects country as a source of both demand and supply, and a focus
damage aggregate production and consumption with the of concern for financial markets for the rest of the world;
layoffs and bankruptcies in all sectors. The unemployment hereby, adverse developments in China have spillover
rate rises, and to survive the economy, governments and effects on the other countries [10]. The Organisation
the central banks must step in by increasing government for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
spending and decreasing interest rates, respectively to announced that growth prospect for China has been
1
World Bank (2018). World Bank Open Data: Population, total [online]. Website https://data.worldbank.org [accessed 25 March 2020].
2
World Bank (2018). World Bank Open Data: Gross Domestic Production (current US$) [online]. Websitehttps://data.worldbank.org
[accessed 25 March 2020].

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revised down sharply to below 5% this year after 6.1% in Nevertheless, global oil demand has been hit hard by the
2019. Accordingly, global economic growth is projected Covid-19 because of the widespread contraction of China’s
to fall to 2.4% in 2020, compared to 2.9% in 2019, but it economy and the drop in demand fuels and gasoline with
could fall as low as 1.5% due to the drop in overall global the travel bans. Meanwhile, the price war between major
economic activities [10]. oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia continues, and they
Tourism is a huge global business that accounts for 10.4% have continuously increased production to overwhelm
of global GDP and 10% of global employment according to global oil markets with supply. The price of something
the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) [11]. Only is determined by the interplay of supply and demand
Chinese tourists account for around one-tenth of all cross- but two of the world’s biggest oil producers cause a huge
border visitors and a huge drop in outbound tourism from unbalance between demand and supply in the oil market.
China leads to an adverse demand shock in many countries As a result of this, oil prices lost as much as a third of their
[10]. With the spreading of the virus all around the world, value since the 1991 Gulf War5. In theory, falling oil prices
the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) announced should be good for growth since business costs fall when
that the tourism sector is currently one of the hardest-hit fuel becomes cheaper and consumers’ purchasing power
by the Covid-19, with impacts on both travel supply and increase for oil-based energy products. However, there is
demand. An expected fall in international tourist arrivals unlikely to be much of fuel demand in the short term due
will be between 20% and 30% could translate into a decline to the wide-ranging travel bans and curfews.
in international tourism receipts of between $300 and 450 The International Labour Organization (ILO)
billion [12]. The International Air Transport Association
announced that between 5.3 million and 24.7 million
(IATA) estimated cost airlines as much as $252 billion with
jobs will be lost because of the economic crisis caused by
a 44% drop in lost revenue due to the collapse of the airline
the Covid-19, and this deterioration in employment also
industry [13].
means a large loss of income between $860 billion to $3.4
On the other hand, China ranked first in goods
trillion by the end of 2020 for workers [17]. For example,
and services exports with an export value of about $2.7
in March 2020, the unemployment rate increased by 0.9%
trillion and second in imports with $2.6 trillion in 20183.
point to 4.4% in the United States (US) [18] and more than
Accordingly, China’s production relations with other
countries cover a broad space that cannot be filled quickly. 6.6 million Americans have filed unemployment claims
China has a key role in global supply chains as a producer of since the pandemic began in the United States (US) [19].
intermediate goods, particularly in computers, electronics, Global stock markets have fallen sharply as investors
pharmaceuticals, and transport equipment, and as the continue to worry about the broader uncertain economic
primary source of demand for many commodities. effects of the pandemic. The FTSE, Dow Jones Industrial
General Administration of Customs stated that China’s Average and the Nikkei have all seen huge falls (more than
overall exports and imports contracted by 17.2% and 4%, 25%) since the pandemic began6. Net portfolio flows and
respectively in the first two mounts of 2020 [14]. Over the value of currencies of emerging economies against
that time, China’s industrial production fell by 13.5% and the dollar have dropped significantly since the beginning
industrial profits decreased by 38.3% [15,16]. Around of 2020 [20].To calm markets and encourage spending,
the world, businesses are dealing with lost revenue and central banks in many countries have cut interest rates
disrupted supply chains due to factory closures in China. to make borrowing cheaper and injected liquidity in the
However, the extended factory closures in China will not financial market to guarantee liquidity in sovereign and
only affect the supply of those products but also hurt other private credit markets. For example, the US Federal Reserve
markets’ ability to produce goods. and the Bank of England cut their key interest rate to near
Furthermore, the uncertainty in China is harmful zero7.In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) took
to global oil prices since China is the world’s biggest action, spending a €750 billion buying government debt
oil importer with 20.2% of total crude oil imports4. and private securities before the end of 2020 [21].
3
World Bank (2018). World Bank Open Data: Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (current US$) [online]. Website https://data.
worldbank.org [accessed 25 March 2020].
4
World’s Top Exports (2018). Crude Oil Exports by Country [online]. Website http://www.worldstopexports.com [accessed 26 March
2020].
5
Reuters (2020). Oil Plunges 25%, Hit by Erupting Saudi-Russia Oil Price War [online]. Website https://www.reuters.com [accessed
23 March 2020].
6
BBC News (2020). Coronavirus: A Visual Guide to The Economic Impact [online]. Website https://www.bbc.com[accessed 24 March
2020].
7
The Guardian (2020). Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates to Near Zero in Attempt to Prop up US Economy [online]. Website https://

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AÇIKGÖZ and GÜNAY / Turk J Med Sci

Recently, governments have started to provide a would take well-focused policy measures [10]. Accordingly,
sizable economic support package for their citizens Turkey expected the tourism boom and global demand
and businesses, including mainly wage subsidies, cash shift in some sectors such as textiles, furniture, iron and
transfers to low-income households, as well as tax cuts and steel, and food. However, these predictions will not come
rent reductions for businesses. Also, both the International true at least in the short term since pandemic has spread
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the WB announced $50 billion throughout the country and all around the world, and now
and $14 billion packages, respectively for financing to Turkey estimates the potential economic costs of this crisis.
help countries suffering from the pandemic [22,23]. In Turkey is the 19th largest economy in the world, with
addition, the US Senate passes a historic $2.2 trillion a GDP of $771 billion2. Turkey’s overall export and import
rescue package and the United Kingdom (UK) pays up to values were nearly $171 billion and $202 billion, respectively
80% of employee wages for those unable to work due to resulting in a negative trade balance of $31 billion in 2019.
the pandemic to prevent bankruptcies, massive layoffs and The top export destinations of Turkey are Germany (9%),
negative impact on aggregate demand8. UK (6.3%), Italy (5.4%), Iraq (5.2%) and the US (4.7%) and
Economists predict that the pandemic is putting the top import origins are Russia (11.1%), China (9.1%),
downward pressure on inflation due to the volatility in Germany (8.9%), the US (5.5%) and Italy (4.2%) [27], these
supply and demand shocks working in opposite and data show that the supply chain of Turkey does not depend
asynchronous ways [24]. While China’s Consumer Price on China largely but other countries’ economies have also
Index (CPI) rose by 5.2% due to mainly food inflation, the hit by the pandemic; hence, this would hurt the Turkish
Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.3 % in February manufacturing sector in the end. In March 2020; exports
due to mainly decline in the price of raw materials [25,26]. decreased by 17.81% and imports increased by 3.13%
Also, consumers intended to increase their spending on compared with March 2019 due to the pandemic [28].
groceries and non-food products for children in the US in Turkish current account deficit recorded $1.804 million
March 2020 and they expected to decrease their spending indicating an increase of $1.528 million compared to
for almost every other product category9. Therefore, January of the previous year, bringing the 12-month rolling
inflation in other countries will likely follow a similar trend surplus to $6.494 million [29].However, the decline will be
like China and the impact on consumer prices will continue expected in 2020 due to a lower goods trade surplus, which
until the production starts again. UNCTAD estimated the results from the global economic disruptions caused by the
overall price decline would be 37% in 2020 [20]. pandemic.
According to the United Nations Educational, Scientific Turkey has struggled with the high unemployment rate
and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) monitoring, over (13.7%) since 2018 [30]. It seems that the unemployment
160 countries have implemented nationwide closures, rate will increase especially among the blue-collar workers
involving over 91% of the world’s student population10. and service sector employees due to the bankruptcies, and
It carries high economic costs since working parents closures of factories and workplaces, who will probably
are more likely to miss work that leads to a wage loss suffer the first economic losses of this pandemic. This will
and adverse impact on production in the short term. In lead to a drop in the GDP growth of Turkey and income
the long term, this situation will bring a deterioration in losses for workers. Besides, the CPI of Turkey increased by
human capital that has a great impact on the economic 11.86% annually and 0.57% monthly in March 2020. Health
development of countries. with 2.78%, food and nonalcoholic beverages with 1.95%
and miscellaneous goods and services with 1.24% were the
3. Costs of pandemic on the Turkish economy main groups where high monthly increases realized [31].
Turkey had managed to keep the Covid-19 virus away from Therefore, the rise will be expected at Turkish consumer
the country until 11 March 2020 when the first confirmed prices through food inflation in the short term like all
case was declared. Before that, the OECD increased its around the world. In addition, Turkey had around 50
expectation for Turkish economy growth to 2.7% from million visitors and $34.5 billion of tourism income in
0.9% and predicted that this pandemic would have a 2019 [32], but the tourism sector will be hardly damaged if
positive impact on the Turkish economy if the government the pandemic will not end by this summer.
www.theguardian.com [accessed 23 March 2020].
8
World Economic Forum (2020). The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Around The World [online]. Website https://www.weforum.org
[accessed 3 April 2020].
9
Statista (2020). Statistics and Facts on Retail & Trade: Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Consumer Spending in The United States
[online]. Website https://www.statista.com [accessed 2 April 2020].
10
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (2020). Covid-19 Impact on Education [online]. Website https://
en.unesco.org [accessed 3 April 2020].

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Additionally, uncertainty will bring more risks for According to the McKinsey & Company report
investors. Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index fell from published in March 2020, the world economy will face two
97.5 to 91.8 [33] and the Real Sector Confidence Index possible future scenarios: delayed recovery or prolonged
decreased from 106.9 to 99.7 [34] in March 2020 compared contraction. In the first scenario, unemployment will rise;
to the previous month due to the pandemic. The Central bankruptcies will put pressure on the banking system;
Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the more liquidity and low interest rate will have a limited
inflation rate from 10.75% to 9.75% to improve the financial effect on demand; self-reinforcing recession will extend,
conditions [35]. Today, Turkey’s 5 Years Credit Default and recovery will begin in the fourth quarter of 2020. In
Swap (CDS) premium value is high with 652.3 points on the second scenario, increasing layoffs and bankruptcies
7 April 2020 compared to 230 points at the beginning of will feed to a self-reinforcing recession; a comprehensive
202011, and it can be interpreted that Turkish economy is banking crisis will damage the world financial system, and
under the pressure of financial risk. Therefore, this higher all fiscal and monetary responses will be insufficient to stop
CDS premium might cause pressure on the Turkish foreign the recession until the second quarter of 2021 [37].
borrowing interest rate to rise. The OECD, IMF and World Bank have already warned
The Turkish government announced a $15.4 billion the governments to take effective and well-resourced
economic stimulus package on 18 March 202012, public health measures and implement well-targeted
introducing a mix of tax cuts, payment deferrals and policies to support health care systems to overcome the
increased pension payouts to help citizens and businesses. Covid-19 crisis [10,22,23]. Moreover, they have forced
However, it seems that the government must pursue a governments to take supportive macroeconomic and
more long term economic measures to save jobs, reassure fiscal measures to restore confidence and demand in the
businesses and lessen the burden on those who have left economy, and protect the jobs and the incomes of workers
work. Turkey is also hosting the largest refugee population and businesses. Member of G20 governments announced
in the world, mostly Syrians displaced by the neighboring in March 2020 that they will focus mainly on safeguard
civil war13 and this will bring a financial burden to the people’s jobs and incomes, restore confidence, preserve
government to protect these people. Nevertheless, if the oil financial stability, and minimize disruptions to trade
prices would low in the long term, Turkey’s petroleum bill and global supply chains with global cooperation [38].
will decrease, and this might be life-saving for the Turkish Nevertheless, all support mechanisms will bring an extra
economy as an energy importer country. burden on public economics, and most probably, the public
debt will increase more with the decreasing tax revenues.
4. Discussion The Covid-19 pandemic led to not only the public
The OECD warned that the shock from the virus is already health crisis but also combined with a global recession,
bigger than the 2008 global financial crisis.The OECD it has the potential to change politics and power around
Secretary General Angel Gurría said: “many countries the world. This is the big historical event like the fall of
would fall into recession and countries would be dealing the Berlin Wall, Brexit and September 11 Attacks for the
with the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic for world. According to the twelve leading global thinkers’
years to come”14. In addition, the IMF Managing Director predictions15, the pandemic will change the world forever.
Kristalina Georgieva stated that “the outlook for global They pointed out that this pandemic is a world-shattering
growth: for 2020 it is negative–a recession at least as bad event whose far-ranging consequences we can only begin
as during the global financial crisis or worse. However, we to imagine today. For example, it will strengthen the state,
expect a recovery in 2021. To get there, it is paramount reinforce nationalism, change global economic directions
to prioritize containment and strengthen health systems– between East and West, and a new stage in globalization
everywhere” [36]. According to these statements, we can will be started by the changing supply chain production
say that quicker recovery will depend on the uncertain strategies. Additionally, American power might be
time of the end of the pandemic in the world. criticized; some countries might fail, and countries might
11
World Government Bonds (2020). Turkey 5 Years CDS-Historical Data [online]. Website http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com
[accessed 7 April 2020].
12
Bloomberg (2020). Turkey Unveils $15.4 Billion Plan to Counter Virus Outbreak [online]. Website https://www.bloomberg.com
[accessed 1 April 2020].
13
UN Refugee Agency (2020). Refugee Population Data [online]. Website https://www.unhcr.org/data.html [accessed 2 April 2020].
BBC News (2020). Global Economy Will Suffer for Years to Come, Says OECD [online]. Website https://www.bbc.com [accessed 24
14

March 2020].
15
Foreign Policy (2020). How The World Will Look After The Coronavirus Pandemic. [online]. Website https://foreignpolicy.
com[accessed 1 April 2020].

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Table. Threats and opportunities for the post-pandemic world.

Threats Opportunities

• Prolonged contraction • More workforce protection


• Bankruptcies and higher unemployment rate • New working conditions
• Insufficient supply chain • New supply chain mechanisms
• Volatility in oil prices • More online shopping
• Huge drop in consumer spending and business investment • More digitalization
• Banking crisis • Emerging of new trade mechanisms
• Huge public deficits • Changing in expenditure habits
• More travel restrictions • More hygiene and safety rather than more profits
• More custom restrictions • Helping each other
• Food inflation • Multilateralism
• More failed countries • Social awareness of clean environment
• Trade policies • New and smart technologies
• Fruitful and cost-efficient meetings

prefer stability to profitability. such as the implementation of a physical mechanism to


Before the Covid-19, the report published by the reduce transmissions like cleaning, staggering shift, and
Rockefeller Foundation in 2010 [9] stated that governments contingency plans for workplace closures. On the other
would impose strict rules and restrictions on the public hand, organizations will try to find alternative supply chain
during and even after the pandemic to protect themselves. actions to respond to the crisis such as transparency on
At first, the notion of a more controlled world would gain the multi-tier supply chain, optimizing production and
wide acceptance and approval. Then, the economic models distribution capacity, estimating realistic final consumer
conducted by authoritarian leaders would increase but demand, estimating inventory along the value chain, and
authoritarianism greatly would restrict entrepreneurial finding available logistics capacity [37].
activity and innovation. Hence, the public would support As a conclusion, it is expected that pandemic will
more restrictions and control mechanisms but this would provide some economic and political opportunities to some
lead to deteriorations of the fundamental citizens’ rights. countries if they manage to end the virus earlier. According
Moreover, the health and freedom paradigm might be one to the discussions presented in this study, we summarize
of the top topics in addition to the security and freedom possible economic threats and opportunities for the
paradigm in public policy, and authoritarianism and co- post-pandemic world in Table. It seems that the Turkish
operation will be discussed as two opposite approaches to economy will be destroyed in the short term like the many
overcome the health crisis in the post-pandemic world. other countries but if Turkey can manage to control the
Currently, the Covid-19 brings some new issues in virus soon, this would bring sustainable growth with the
labour and production markets. For example, closing accelerating rise in manufacturing exports, tourism revenue
factories and forcing workers to stay at home or huge and foreign investment in the short term. In addition, the
layoffs are not actions policymakers do much. As this crisis world will not be the same in the postpandemic era due to
is ongoing, the unemployment rate will be higher and the changing sensitivities in the social life or production
the supply chain disrupted further. The main priority of mechanisms or governance of countries, as stated above.
organizations will be the safety to protect their employees Hence, Turkey must develop new strategies to adjust the
and how to maintain business operations in the post- postpandemic new world order without much delay to gain
pandemic world. In this context, actions would be taken advantage or not to be left behind.

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