HISTORICAL MOLDAVIA- FROM DEMOGRAPHIC EXPANSION TO A

SHRINKING REGION

MUNTELE IONEL, Profesor, Universitatea ”Alexandru Ioan Cuza” Iași / CS I, Filiala Iași a
Academiei Române; Bd.Carol I, 5A / Bd.Carol I, 8
SÎRBU COSTEL-COSMIN, doctorand, Universitatea ”Alexandru Ioan Cuza” Iași
OSTOPOVICI IONUȚ-VASILE, doctorand, Universitatea ”Alexandru Ioan Cuza” Iași

Key words: Moldavia, comparative dynamics of population, trends, evolutionary cycles, urbanization,
rural depopulation, shrinking region

La Moldavie historique – de l’expansion démographique à ”shrinking region”. L’analyse comparative

de l’évolution de la population des territoires appartenant à la Moldavie historique démontre l’importance du
facteur politique dans l’émergence des tendances spécifiques. Utilisant la classification hiérarchique ascendante
en tant que principale méthode d’analyse statistique, la démarche propose des conclusions qui confirment le rôle
de certains vecteurs tels, l’attractivité urbaine, l’accessibilité, les politiques de colonisation, les transformations
du système de peuplement, l’effet de barrière exercé par les frontières etc., dans la manifestation des
différentiations spatiales. Pourtant, au-delà des particularités locales, se manifestent aussi des évolutions
confirmant une certaine spécificité régionale, surtout dans le contexte d’un processus séculaire de
marginalisation. C’est notamment le cas de l’évolution pendant les guerres mondiales et après la chute du régime
totalitaire quand la région c’est transformé dans une des principales bases d’émigration de la main d’œuvre de
l’Europe de l’Est.

1. Introduction

This study proposes a diachronic analysis of the numerical evolution of the population of the
historical Moldavia, extended over a period of two centuries (1772-2014). The purpose of this
approach is first of all a comparative one, focused on highlighting the similarities or differentiations
manifested within this once unitary space, subjected to successive territorial reshuffles during the
study period.
Occupying an area of approximately 94,862 km 2, this territory experienced, during the time
span, a wide expansion of the settlements system, generated by its position at the interference of the
three great empires – Habsburg, Tsarist and Ottoman. This expansion followed a long period of
demographic decline (1670-1774, especially in the first part of the interval), generated by conflicts
between the neighbouring powers for which Moldavia was often the theatre of war (Roman, Vergatti,
2002, p.94-108). The mentioned authors estimated for 1700 a population of 1.2 million inhabitants in
Moldavian Principality, compared to only 0.77 million, which was registered in 1774.
The first part of the period, 1774-1860, known in the literature as a ”new phase” of
settlements, manifested itself similarly in a wider space of Southeast Europe in the context of the
withdrawal of the Ottoman Empire, eliminating the danger of invasions from the Eurasian steppes, and
of an increased interest in the agricultural market (Vâlsan, 1912; Tufescu, 1937). Having originally a
predominantly organized character in the territories detached from historical Moldavia and annexed by
Habsburgs (Bukovina) or Tsarist Russia (Bessarabia) and mostly spontaneous in the rest of the
principality, similar to the evolutions in Wallachia, the process of settlements system extending, at
least during the 19th century, had similar effects on the demographic level. The differences that can be
extracted are related to the intensity and scale at which these effects have occurred at the spatial level.
Thus, the relatively unitary character of the medieval Moldavian settlements system, diffuse, autarchic
and lacking spatial consistency, gradually became increasingly complex, borrowing from the specific
ways of territory organization imposed by the occupying power or demanded by socio-economic
modernization (Muntele, 1998, p.31).
Beyond the partially divergent evolutions, during the twentieth century, the space of the
historical Moldavia found itself in a rather unified context, not only during the interwar period, but
also later, when the extensive process of urbanization and industrialization manifested itself under the
direction of the totalitarian regimes or when the crisis following their fall occurred. Transformed in the
last decades into one of the most powerful emigration areas on the European continent, this peripheral
region par excellence seems to have entered a new phase of evolution of its settlements network,
opposite to its past, being marked by contraction. Its western part has been included in a study funded
by one of the European Parliament’s committees on so-called ”shrinking regions”. A relatively new
concept but corresponding to some older realities, applied to denominate the regions affected by the
generalization of the depopulation phenomenon, including in shrinking cities, fairly corresponds to the
recent evolution of the population of historical Moldavia (Grasland et al., 2008). The contrast between
the long period of demographic expansion, with strong syncopes caused by world wars, resulting
primarily from an exceptional vitality, and this recent decline is broadly the essence of this study. In
this context, it is also evidenced the presence of some convergent evolutions in this politically divided
territory, with a long-term dominated peripheral status and relatively isolated geographically (White,
2000, p.112-114).
Given the size of the space and the purpose of the approach, the proposed analysis is limited to
the identification and characterization of some types of evolution able to capture territorial
differentiations and spatial variations in the sense of the classical definition of the geographic
population survey (Johnson et al., 1998, p.452). The analysis represents a necessary support for the
deepening of some themes such as the causality of the emergence of certain evolutionary models or
the systemic character of some tendencies.

2. Means and methods

The combination of the means specific to historical demography, for the period before the
organization of modern censuses, with the specific geographical survey of the population, forms the
basis of the present paper. The chronological series are pursued through three components, which are
considered essential: trend of evolution, cyclic character and conjunctural variations (Dumolard et al.,
2005, p.211). Although the chronological series are the result of composite information, which can
generate discontinuities and contradictions, it was considered useful to integrate data prior to the first
censuses in the study area (1859-1860).
The method of sliding means was used to adjust the integrated information in the statistical
series retained for analysis. The adjustment was performed for time sequences equivalent to one
decade in order to eliminate the length differences for which population numbers could be
reconstituted and the missing of records timing (see appendix). In order to analyse the evolution of the
population at the level of the whole region, the gross series obtained were used, using as a temporal
reference the records of the Principality of Moldavia (Kingdom of Romania after 1881).
For the main analysis, aiming at the clustering of types of evolution at the detailed scale
(localities), the processing of gross adjusted series used as an essential indicator the annual average
growth rate: R = ((P1-P0)/t)/((P0+P1)/2)*100, where P0 is the population at the beginning of the
interval, P1 is the population at the end of the interval and t is equivalent to 10 years. Thus, a table
with 24 decennial average growth indicators was obtained, the indicators being standardized using the
Z-score method (Kitchin, Tate, 2000, p.102). The derived, standardized table was the support of an
agglomerative hierarchical clustering (ACH) done in XLSTAT. The Ward method, based on the
minimal variance criterion, was retained as an option for class differentiation by the Euclidean
distance and for the agglomeration of classes (Ward, 1963). The profile of the obtained types was
reported at the adjusted annual growth rate, expressed as a percentage.
The graphical representation used 1:100 000 topographic maps to extract the main geographic
elements (watercourses, administrative boundaries), processed in Adobe Illustrator. The cluster, the
average profile and the profile of the cluster were included in the medallion to facilitate the analysis of
the results.
Besides this main database, for purposes of explanation, other information on settlement
loudness was also used, indicating the population density or information on the evolution of some
demographic parameters in the period after 1990, in a regional context. Their purpose was to illustrate
the manifestation of processes such as urbanization, suburbanization, rural depopulation, metropolitan
concentration, etc. Rural depopulation, the most significant for the region in the future, is understood
in the sense defined by Rees and Kupiszewski, population loss from areas in wich agriculture, forestry
and fishing activities predominate” (1999, p.15).
 3. Results and discussions

Following the statistical processing of the standardized information, 8 distinct types have been
retained, grouped according to the general tendencies or conjuctural developments. The interpretation
of the resulting profile followed both the similarities and differentiations from the average profile, as
well as the existence of some regional trends during certain time sequences.
The average profile highlights a trend of constant population growth until the First World
War, with relatively important variations induced by the change of the political status of some parts of
the principality, first in the northwest (Bukovina) and then in the east (Bessarabia). The decennial
standardization of the growth rate thus indicates values between 1-2% annually, with two significant
peaks: 1790-1800 and 1820-1830. These are consistent with the colonisations performed by the
Austrians in Bucovina and the Tsarist authorities in Bessarabia, sometimes on a massive scale. This
long relatively constant growth sequence was replaced after 1910 with a highly variable evolution, the
negative trends being assigned to the two world wars and, towards the end, to the effects of the fall of
the totalitarian regime, unlike the positive tendencies, which can be explained through the delay of the
demographic transition in the whole historical Moldavia (figure 1).

Figure 1: Numerical Evolution and Annual Growth Rate of the Population in Historical Moldavia.
Data source: see Appendix; Note: Time stamps are sometimes different for Bucovina (1808, 1910), for territories
belonging to the Soviet Union between 1940-1989 (1959, 1989), for the Republic of Moldova and the territories belonging to
Ukraine at present (2014.

The general tendencies of evolution have fallen within the specific trends of Eastern Europe,
with higher values than the continental average, Moldavia being one of the territories that experienced
the most extensive expansion of the settlement system, especially in the first part of the nineteenth
century. Between 1800 and 1914, its population grew from 1.1 to 5.4 million people almost five times,
much more impetuous than Europe as a whole, which from about 188 Millions reached 458 Millions
in the same period, an increase of two and half times in the context of the industrialization and
urbanization process in the Western countries (Livi-Bacci, 2003, p.149). Generated primarily by the
valorisation of the agricultural potential, secondarily by the poor development of urban life, this strong
growth was the premise of maintaining a notable demographic vitality over the next century. This
vitality was also an expression of the significant delay of the demographic transition – early and
intense marriage, high birth rate, reduced life expectancy (Dupâquier, Bardet, p.613-614, 1998).With
all this spectacular growth, the population density remained relatively low compared to the European
average until 1900, an expression of extensive and poor performance farming, secondary to a weak
urbanization (Murgescu, 2012, p.318).
The resulting typology highlights the existence of clearly outlined types of evolution, with
sequences generally converging to the average of the region (figure 2).
The first of the eight separate types comprises mainly urban centres and differs significantly
from the others. Slightly urbanized initially, historical Moldavia experienced a rapid growth of the
urban population until the middle of the first half of the 19th century, manifested almost
simultaneously under all administrative jurisdictions, stronger in Bessarabia and weaker in Bukovina,
explicable by the repopulation of cities which had fully borne the effects of the Russian-Turkish wars,
but also through the development of a dense system of boroughs needed for better territorial service,
especially for commercial purposes, which claimed a large influx of population, especially Jewish
(Schwarzfeld, 2002, p.165).

Figure 2: Typology of Numerical Evolution of Population in Historical Moldavia (1774-2011)

Data source: seen Appendix.

This phenomenon also impressed, as mentioned, the peak of the period 1820-1830. Being an
almost exclusively commercial type of urbanization, at least in the 19th century, it could not maintain
a vigorous speed for a long time, by the end of the century, a significant reduction in the growth rate
being imposed throughout the whole region, especially in the western part, entered in a shadow after
the unification of the Danubian Principalities in 1859. Even its capital, Iași, experienced a long period
of stagnation up to the post-war period. The population of Iași grew from about 23 000 inhabitants in
1803 to 68 478 in 1859, after which it recorded a much slower growth, to 79 406 inhabitants in 1912.
Another particularity of the municipalities related to this type is the much stronger manifestation of the
negative effects of the two world wars, which massively eroded the number of population, by 1950 the
population being smaller than in 1900, almost without exception.
In contrast, during the communist period, the 1950-1990s were marked by an unheard of
expansion with annual average values of around 3%, sufficient to increase by 3-4 times the population
of most cities. For example, Chișinău increased from 128 910 inhabitants in 1949 to 589 446 in 1989,
Cernăuți from 91 373 to 256 568, in the same period. Between 1948-1992, Iași increased from 92 368
to 344 425 inhabitants, Galați from 83 878 to 326 141 etc. Even more spectacular was the evolution of
smaller towns: Bălți from 25070 to 157 608 inhabitants, Bacău from 34 461 to 205 02, etc. Forced
industrialization, also claimed by the massive pressure of a relatively large rural population, still in full
demographic transition, is the most frequent explanation for this spectacular growth (Țurcănașu, 2006,
p.322-328, Matei et al., 2017, p.156-160). Urban growth is most often seen as a result of the
demographic transition, from this perspective the evolution described above is not at all surprising
(Dyson, 2011, p.51). However, the 40 years of massive expansion have been partially overturned by
the reverse trend imposed by the effects of the fall of totalitarian regimes. After 1990, the massive
decrease of the urban population led to the decline of many urban centres, even ones of the most
important (Galați, Bacău in Romania, Bălți and even Chișinău in Republic of Moldova, etc.), often by
¼ or even 1/3 of the whole population. At Galați the population decreased between 1992-2011 by
23%, in Bacău by 30% and in Bălți, between 1989-2014, by 37%. Thus, in 2011, Galați counted only
249 432 inhabitans, Bacău 144 307 and in Bălți (2014), only 97 930 inhabitants. The
deindustrialisation imposed by the inadequacy of the infrastructure to the market economy and the
isolation of the region from Western Europe accompanied by massive emigration can explain this
negative trend. Small urban centres, with a local polarization role, appear to have been irreparably
affected. Larger urban centres have the minimal advantage of the appearance of some urban fringes
around them, marked by a sustained population growth.
Types 2 and 3 have seen a relatively close evolution, which distinguishes them from the
slightly higher values of the growth rate during the 19th century and, on the other hand, from the post-
totalitarian behaviour. The explanations for these differences are given by the geographical location of
the municipalities, which form distinct areas, often juxtaposed, either in suburban areas (especially
type 2) or in specialized agricultural areas (Tecuci Plain, for example) or in the mountain area. These
areas have shown increased attractiveness through the expansion of the rural settlements system or, in
the case of the mountain area, the capitalization of previously poorly exploited resources. Practically,
urban proximity was a vector of differentiation of these two types, initially unitary, manifested though
the urban sprawl tendency, which is very visible in the case of the big cities (Chișinău, Iași, Galați,
Cernăuți). There is, however, an exception given by the isolated presence of this type in small, often
isolated areas, particularly in the western part of the region, explicable either by the ethnic factor (the
presence of the Gypsy communities) or by the confessional factor (the presence of neo-Protestant
communities), both cases displaying high values of natural growth (Muntele, Horea-Șerban, 2011).
Thus, in contradiction with an almost widespread decline, especially in the parts of the historical
Moldavia affiliated to Romania and Ukraine, there are mainly rural localities which have seen a very
strong increase after 1990 (eg.Voitinel in Suceava County, from 3 159 inhabitants in 1992 to 4 412 in
2011, Mironu in the same county from 1 445 to 2 445 and the town of Crasna in the Cernăuți region of
Ukraine, from 7 769 inhabitants in 1989 to 9 142 in 2001 and 10 112 in 2015 according to official
estimates, all falling within the explanations above).
Types 4 and 5 also experienced a relatively unitary evolution, but without a chronological
overlap, not even periodical. Located almost exclusively in areas formerly under Habsburg or Tsarist
occupation, they stand out though their strong spatial coherence. Their similarity comes from the
spectacular growth in the early part of the studied period, earlier in type 4, present mainly in Bukovina
and the central-southern part of Bessarabia, later in type 5, specific to Bessarabia as an extension of
the previous one. Another element that brings them closer is the manifestation of a massive decline in
the population during the Second World War, strongly recovered in the next decade. The first of these
types is characterized by a relative constancy of growth up to 1900, resulting in an important
accumulation of population that led to the formation of a densely populated area in the hilly part of
Bukovina, integrated into the densely populated area that accompanies North-Eastern Carpathians,
from southern Poland to northeast Romania. Massive colonization, especially with Germans and
Poles, often in pre-existing settlements with native populations, explains this situation in this case. In
the central-southern part of Bessarabia, the complete evacuation of the Nogay Tatar population and the
repopulation of these territories, initially with a Romanian population originating from the rest of the
Moldavian principality, and after 1812 through a systematic colonization (with Bulgarians, Gagauz,
Germans, etc.) performed during several decades and manifesting a certain inertia, explains this
constancy. Rapid population growth in colonies forced every generation to form new settlements, the
last settlers arriving in 1856 (Nistor, 1991, p.207).
In the case of type 5, the lower growth rates in the first decades are explained mainly by the
affiliation of the villages to early populated areas that have often been the source of fluxes toward type
4 areas. The spectacular growth from 1810 to 1830 occurred either as a result of the creation of many
new settlements during this period, or of the significant contribution of population flows
spontaneously displaced towards pre-existing settlements with a small population. Another element
that differentiates types 4 and 5 is their evolution in the last part of the communist period, the former
having a strong resilience capacity despite the impact of the rural exodus specific to the period, in
most cases due to the preservation of demographic vitality. For type 5, the decline has started since the
1970s and has increased since 1990. In this case, the divergence is also explicable by urban proximity
and accessibility to the major transport infrastructure, the localities of type 5 being confined to more
remote areas.
Types 6, 7, 8 form a third relatively unitary group. The first and last of these have similarities
in terms of their evolution during the 19th century, while the latter two had a common evolution in the
post-war period. The frequency of types 6 and 7 is larger, as is their spatial coherence, the latter being
more dispersed but with some distinct, significant areas.
Type 6 is particularly specific to the western part of historical Moldavia (including the
northern parts of Bucovina and Bessarabia), much older and more intense populated areas, somewhat
more protected from the danger of the nomadic invasions from the North-Pontic steppes. In the part of
the principality that remained autonomous after 1912 and which constituted one of the two
components of the modern state of Romania, it is the most frequent type, on the background of which
the other types occur. The moderate growth, rarely exceeding 1% annually, with a relative decline in
the period 1860-1900, when the region was the source of important population flows directed to
agricultural colonization areas, including outside the studied region, also stands out through a certain
moderation in the manifestation of the rural exodus which, although imposed a population decline
after the 1960s, was not remarkably significant. Another characteristic is the repositioning of a part of
the previously displaced rural population after 1990 in the context of abandoning collective farming
(at least in Romania, Hirschhausen, 1997). The moderation of growth and the decline resumed since
2000, amid the aging of the population and the massive emigration of the young population, ensures a
certain vulnerability.
Type 7 shows a particular spatial consistency, generally characterizing settlements that have
experienced systematic or spontaneous colonization, especially in the early 19th century (Budjak, forest-
steppe areas in the middle basin of the Prut etc.), when it evolved in a similar manner to types 4 and 5,
and especially to the latter. Such massive colonization characterized the Budjak, which before 1812, the
year of the Tsar occupation, was populated by nomad Nogai and Moldovan peasants. In 1794, about 23
000 families lived here (Roman, Vergatti, 2002, p.190), mostly evacuated to the Ottoman Empire or to
the North Caucasus. In 1809, the documents witnessed the presence of only 12 470 families, of which 3
425 were ”old”, consisting of Moldovan peasants and 9 045 ”wanderers”, consisting of Christian
refugees from the Balkans (Istrati, 1987, p.385). Strongly affected by the last world war (especially the
settlements in Budjak) they did not fully recover in the post-war period, gradually entering a more
pronounced decline, mitigated in the first decade after the fall of the communist regime. The six decades
of continuous decline greatly reduced the population number by at least one-third, involving an aging
process that, as in the previous type, indicates a strong vulnerability.
Type 8, intermediate between 6 and 7, is primarily characterized by the extent of the decline,
often installed since the interwar period. Dispersed among the other types, however, it forms some
distinct areas, such as the lower basin of the Prut, in its Romanian part. In this region, the Horincea
valley, a relatively densely populated area once, with an area of 468 km 2, had more than 6 000
inhabitants as the end of the 18th century, with a relative increase until 1941 when the maximum
number of inhabitants reached (15 455 in 1860 and 31 304 in 1941, corresponding to a density of 67
inh./ km2) that in the last census a lower number could be recorded than at 1860 ( 15 136,
corresponding to a density of 67 inh./ km2). Such examples are and in other isolated hilly and
mountainous areas. Its more frequent presence in the western half of the region denotes a correlation
with the age of the settlement, without excluding the presence of settlements emerging during the
population expansion in the 19th century, disadvantaged by isolation or less favourable natural
conditions (less fertile soils, relative aridity, frequency of landslide stimulated by irrational land use
etc.). A number of 59 settlements were already depopulated in 2011, some other dozens having a low
(under 25 inhabitants) and aged population. The related villages are generally of small size, but there
are also cases of large villages which experienced a rapid decline (Străoane, Vrancea county, Romania
from 3983 inhabitants in 1941 to 2310 in 2011 or Bălanu, Râșcani district, R.of Moldova, from 3141
inhabitants in 1941 to only 905 in 2014, etc.).
The image of the types distribution leads to some regularities that can be extracted:
- the importance of the urban network, especially of large and medium-sized cities, in the
direction of evolving trends, especially in the last decades. This is part of the modern population
concentration process in metropolitan areas, with a significant temporal gap in the study region,
explained by the precariousness of economic structures. The administrative-political importance of the
urban centres plays an important role in this context, the city of Chișinău, with its capital status,
having a superior capacity of concentration of its population in the immediate neighbourhood, a
capacity manifested especially during the Soviet period. The adaptation to the market economy and
the connection to globalization networks are equally important, especially over the last decades. Thus,
the city of Iași seems more prepared in this respect if we consider the dynamics of the population in
the metropolitan area after 1990. The high density can be a factor in reducing the concentration
capacity of the population (the case of Cernăuți where, even in 1900, the threshold of 100 inh./ km 2
was exceeded in the metropolitan area - table 1);
Table no.1: Evolution of annual growth rate and population density in main metropolitan areas of Moldavia
Metropolitan area (only Annual population growth rate (%) Population density (inh./km2)
rural population) 1956-1992 1992-2011 1956 1992 2011
Iași 0.85 1.54 75 102 140
Galați 0.54 0.95 47 57 69
Chișinău 1.91 0.57 99 179 207
Cernăuți 0.28 0.13 105 114 118
Total rural population 0.01 -0.43 63 63 58
Data source: seen Appendix. Note: The metropolitan areas have been empirically delimited, including
the localities located at least 20 k from the centre of relative cities.
-the importance of the accessibility to transport infrastructure, a favouring factor in the
contemporary period but a disadvantage in the past, when main roads were also used as invasion
routes or for the movement of troops to the theatres of war, the region being severely affected in the
first part of the period to study (wars between Tsarist and Ottoman empires). The settlements along the
main railways and main roads experienced an appreciable expansion after the 1900s, with frequent
new settlements being established here. There is a significant difference between the situation in the
western and eastern parts of historical Moldavia. In the eastern part, the role of the main transport
routes in the population concentration seems to have decreased after 1990 (table 2).
Table no.2: Evolution of population in the long run of several main roads and railways
Railway/Road Annual population growth rate (%) Population density
(inh./km2)
1774- 1860- 1912- 1956- 1992- 1774 1912 2011
1860 1912 1956 1992 2011
Tecuci-Iași 1.17 0.88 1.16 0.22 0.53 9 37 75
Pașcani-Iași 0.98 0.78 1.18 0.60 0.87 13 44 111
Tighina-Chișinău 1.82 1.68 1.35 1.55 0.28 3 43 148
Data source: seen Appendix. Note: the areas were empirically delimited, including the settlements
located at least 6 km from the railway/road.
 - the relevance of the colonization process in its various forms (organized, systematic,
especially in Bessarabia and Bukovina or spontaneous) for the differentiation of the numerical
evolution of the population. The dynamics of new settlements resulting from colonization or those
which experienced a consistent increase in herds was largely determined by the ethnicity of the
colonized population. Thus, in massive colonization areas with a German population (Budjak), there
was a depopulation accentuated by their repatriation in 1940 (Șandru, 2003, p.83). The withdrawal of
the Germans was an immediate effect of occupying Bessarabia by the Soviet troops after 26 June
1940, being decided in the context of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. At the same time, most of the
German population in northern Bukovina, occupied at the same time by the Soviets, was also
evacuated. Subsequent repopulation was unable to ensure the viability of all former colonies. A similar
evolution was seen in the mixed settlements in Bukovina. By contrast, the areas colonized with
Bulgarian-Gagauzian population on the western side of the Budjak, had a different evolution, being
less affected by the consequences of the last conflagration. The agricultural colonization through land
ownership, conducted by the state through successive reforms, was practiced in the western part of the
historical Moldavia (1864, 1884), especially in the steppe and forest-steppe regions, but also in
Bessarabia (1868, 1905). The 1923 agrarian reform, applied throughout the Kingdom of Romania, led,
as in the past, to the appearance of a large number of settlements. The evolution of the population in
these settlements followed a similar trend, after the initial expansion, following a continuous decline,
with insignificant influence of the last world war. Remarkable is the rural return recorded after 1990 in
the western part of the historical Moldavia, which temporarily halted the decline (figure 3);

Figure 3: Population dynamics in the settlements of systematic colonization in historical Moldavia.

- change of the preference for defence sites in hilly and fragmented plateaus (wide peaks,
reception pools of secondary tributaries), by moving villages to valleys, often by setting up new
settlements or duplicates of existing ones. The relative depopulation of interfluves has long been
noticed (Chiriac, 1976). The decline of some settlements began after 1860, but it became more
pronounced during communist period and continued after 1990, especially in the profoundly rural hilly
areas such as Bârlad Plateau and Central Bessarabia (table 3);
Table no.3: Evolution of population in the Tutova Hills (Bârlad Plateau)
Annual population growth rate (%) Population density (inh./km2)
1774- 1859- 1912- 1956- 1992- 1774 1912 1956 2011
1859 1912 1956 1992 2011
Interfluves 1.2 0.4 0.4 -1.3 -0.3 16 55 67 39
Valleys 1.3 0.7 0.8 -0.2 0.2 8 50 70 68
Data source: seen Appendix
- the high degree of originality of the types combination from the three major fragments of
historical Moldavia: the Autonomous Principality (Western Moldavia), the Austrian province of
Bukovina and the Tsarist province of Bessarabia. The influence of the political factor in directing the
settlement system seems indisputable, imposing periodically, besides the similarities that can be
attributed to some trends ahead of the separation, specific evolutions. Differences become significant
especially from the point of view of the summary analysis of population density (table 4). The
moderate growth in Western Moldavia is opposed to the rapid one, but more vulnerable to major
political risks, such as the two world wars in Bessarabia and Bukovina. The latter area, however, has a
stronger demographic inertia after 1989, the population decline having a smaller extent, including the
effect of preserving a positive demographic balance, this becoming the most densely populated part of
historical Moldavia. The analysis of the evolution of the natural growth during the period 1990-2016
highlights the existence of divergent national models but which ultimately tend towards convergence
(figure 4). This is explained by the specific way in which every national / regional demographic
system has accommodated the shock created by the fall of the communist regime.
Table 4: The evolution of population number and its density, by large historical divisions
Region Surface 1774 1803 1860 1912 1930 1941 1956 1992 2011
Km2 Thousand inhabitants
Western 38635 442 630 1338 2146 2449 2803 3079 4235 3677
Moldavia
Bessarabia 45726 236 300 1013 2424 2866 2747 3410 4714 3866
Bukovina 10501 90 213 508 790 835 772 795 1122 1085
Density (inhabitants/km2)
Western Moldavia 11 16 35 56 63 73 80 110 95
Bessarabia 5 7 22 53 63 60 75 103 85
Bukovina 9 20 48 75 80 74 76 107 103
Data source: see Appendix; Note: Time stamps are sometimes different for Bukovina (1808, 1910), for territories
belonging to the Soviet Union between 1944-1989 (1959, 1989), for the Republic of Moldova and the territories belonging to
Ukraine at present (2014).

Figure 4: Evolution of natural population growth in a regional context

Data sources: Tempo Online, INS Romania; National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova; Statistics Committee of Chernivtsi
Oblast ([email protected]); State Committee for Statistics of Ukraine

- the relative importance of borders, older or newer, which create a noticeable barrier effect.
Both within sustainable political limits (the boundary of the Prut border or the one limiting Bukovina
from the rest of Moldavia) and those resulting from the additional fragmentation of the region as a
result of the last world war, noteworthy differences can be observed due to the different status of the
areas along them. In the case of Romania, the Prut border has always been repulsive, its opacity,
induced by the controversial relations between Romania and the Tsarist Empire (the Soviet Union),
resulting in the deepening of the rural character; over a distance of 450 km, no urban centre (with the
exception of Ştefăneşti town, recently officially resuscitated) is located. In contrast, on the left bank,
several small and medium-sized urban centres appeared and developed, the rural area in their vicinity
being rather attractive. The border that divided Bukovina into two parts generated a similar but smaller
effect. Major differences can be observed on both sides of the borders resulting from the separation of
Bessarabia in 1940. In this case, the border areas belonging to the Ukrainian regions of Odessa and
Chernivtsi have turned into relatively repulsive areas, due to the distance from the regional centres or
to the main urban centres, unlike the neighbouring areas affiliated to the Republic of Moldova,
somewhat more stable from the demographic point of view during the Soviet period, without being
able to rely entirely on particularities induced by the ethnic structure. These border sectors separate
mixed ethnic areas: the Novoselița a district in the Cernăuți region is predominantly Romanian, while
in the Briceni and Ocnita districts of Republic of Moldova lives an important Ukrainian minority; in
the Bolgrad and Tarutino districts of the Odessa region Bulgarians and Gagauzians predominate, as
well as in the neighboring districts of the Republic of Moldova. Although of limited length, the border
resulting from the annexation by the Soviet Union of the Herța County in 1940 created a similar effect
on the Prut border. This region of 350 km 2 and a population of 34 000 inhabitants in 1940, almost
exclusively Romanian, has been annexed by the Soviet armies, although it did not appear in the final
note addressed to the Romanian government on June 26, 1940. Today it is part of the Cernăuți region
of Ukraine.After 1990, the most vulnerable border areas became those related to the Republic of
Moldova, while the Romanian-Ukrainian frontier in the Bucovina sector became the least sensitive to
the barrier effect (table 5).
Table 5: Evolution of the average annual growth rate and population density in the areas along the
current borders (the maximum distance of 10 km from the border, excluding the urban population)
Average annual growth rate (%) Density (inhab./km2)
Border Border 1774 1803 1860 1912 1941 1956 1992
area side - - - - - - - 177 191 195 199 201
1803 1860 1912 1941 1956 1992 2011 4 2 6 2 1
Bukovin Romanian 2.62 1.57 0.99 0.32 -0.09 0.33 -0.05 5 56 61 68 68
a Ucrainian 2.77 1.59 0.78 -0.09 0.11 0.61 0.56 4 46 45 54 63
Hertsa Romanian 1.77 1.00 0.69 0.73 -0.30 -1.00 -0.54 18 79 93 65 58
County Ucrainian 2.38 0.84 0.86 0.02 -0.44 -0.27 0.39 16 85 79 73 80
Hotin Moldavian 0.56 1.46 1.53 0.61 -0.08 -0.26 -0.79 11 74 87 80 66
County Ucrainian 0.87 1.54 1.61 0.46 0.34 -0.56 -0.80 9 74 90 77 63
Prut river Romanian 1.33 1.04 1.13 1.08 0.52 -0.63 -0.29 9 43 64 51 48
Moldavian 0.91 1.45 1.59 0.89 0.45 0.51 -0.47 6 45 63 74 66
Budjak Moldavian -0.54 2.58 1.81 0.92 0.34 0.43 -0.61 2 38 53 61 52
Ucrainian -1.98 3.01 1.79 0.72 -0.31 -0.44 -0.58 2 35 41 36 31
Data source: see Appendix; Note: Time stamps are sometimes different for Bukovina (1808, 1910), for territories
belonging to the Soviet Union between 1944-1989 (1959, 1989), for the Republic of Moldova and the territories belonging to
Ukraine at present (2014).

- the major role of the gradual enhancement of the external migration after 1990 in the
manifestation of regressive tendencies in the entire region, especially in the territories afferent to
Romania and the Republic of Moldova. The reconstitution of the demographic balance (both natural
and migratory) for the period 1990-2016, based on the sources mentioned in Figure 4, shows that
historical Moldavia provided an enormous number of emigrants during this period. The migration
balance amounted to about 1.9 million, or almost 1/5 of the population it had in 1990. Out of these,
about 980 000 came from the Republic of Moldova (without Transnistria), 807 000 of the eight
northeast Romanian counties and over 100 000 of the territories belonging to Ukraine (Chernivtsi
region and the southwest of the Odessa region). In the former Soviet territories, an important part of
this flow, especially in the years 1990-2000, was represented by the repatriation of an important part
of the Russian minority, partly compensated by the return of the displaced native population,
especially in the Russian Federation (Matei et all, p.173, 2017). But most of the number covers
massive post-2000 emigration, mostly to Western Europe and North America, but keeping a
significant flow towards the Russian Federation. A significant number of citizens of the Republic of
Moldova chose Romania as destination (160 000 between 1991 and 2016, according to INS). The
quoted source shows that most of them settled in the western part of Moldavia, so that the real balance
of emigration in this part can be estimated for the period 1990-2016 at about 1 million people.
Practically, at the European level, only the south-west of the Balkans (Albania, Kosovo) still have
such a high level of emigration, but given the size of the historical Moldavia, which is significantly
larger and more populous, it can be said it is the most important source of continental migration.
 4. Conclusions

The aim of the study, to highlighting the emergence of converging trends of population
evolution in a territory marked by successive divisions, vectors of manifesting divergent political
trends, is certified by the results of the typological analysis. Apart from the differences separating the
fragments in which the present Moldavia is divided, there are a number of coordinates that still
provide some coherence, at least in terms of demographic evolution. These seem to be imposed
primarily by the peripheral status of the region, both towards the European and national power centres
(obviously, if we exclude the particular situation of the Republic of Moldova, a small state with a
fragile functionality). The peripheral position generated in the first part of the studied period (end of
the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries) a relative attractiveness of the region, expressed by a rapid
population growth. During the 20th century, the region gradually became repulsive, correlated with the
successive division / split again of the territory, but also with the relative overpopulation induced by
the precariousness of the social-economic structures (Northeast Romania is the least developed region
of the country, as is the Chernivtsi region within Ukraine, while the Republic of Moldova is the
European country with the lowest gross domestic product per capita). Efforts to industrialize and
modernize agricultural systems in the totalitarian period somewhat delayed the installation of a
demographic decline specific to peripheral regions, along with preserving demographic vitality. This
latter aspect was generated not by maintaining higher fertility indicators but by the favourability
induced by the preservation of a young population structure (the so-called population momentum,
”population growth after reaching the 2.1 threshold of the specific fertility indicator, in the context of
maintaining a young population structure”, after Bongaarts, Bulatao, 1999).
The opportunity to have a demographic dividend throughout the region during the communist
period was not properly exploited, as the region's rising degree of rurality is still a disability. The
timing mentioned above masks the population's stress in the sense of a demographic development
superior to the supportive nature of the natural environment (Chi, Chak Ho, 2018). Population stress
was accompanied by environmental stress (according the sense defined by Commoner, 1991). This
especially in the Republic of Moldova, where rapid population growth between the 1950s and 1990s
was accompanied by the modernization of agriculture, in particular through the massive use of
chemistry, with serious effects on the quality of the environment. Thus, the fall of the totalitarian
regimes after 1989 has inevitably led to the confrontation of the region with the rigors of the transition
that brutally occurred, generating a massive emigration trend that has strongly eroded demographic
structures, although provides much of the revenue through remittances, without which the situation
would be even more disastrous (Simone et al., 2018). Emigration can also be seen in the context of the
specific evolution of the demographic transition, as a mechanism for regulating the population, along
with marriage and fertility control (Reher, 2011, p.24). Most of the income earned from work abroad
is predominantly directed towards the construction or purchase of housing, with the entrepreneurial
spirit being poorly represented (Sandu, 2010, p.188).
As it emerges from the analysis, the decline of the region, at least from a demographic
perspective, is in full swing, unquestionably falling into the category of "shrinking regions". Possible
solutions to stop these trends cannot be conceived beyond reducing isolation and developing regional
cooperation. The current position, one of contact between the European Union and eastern
neighbourhood, although seemingly favourable, is countered by the poor development of
infrastructure, inefficient connections and the existence of some outbreaks of instability in the post-
soviet space.

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