Grade 12 Probability

In this chapter you:

 Use Venn diagrams to determine the probability of events happening
 Identify independent and dependent events
 Identify mutually exclusive events
 Identify complementary events
 Use tree diagrams to determine the probabilities of independent and dependent events happening
 Use two-way contingency tables to calculate probabilities and test for independence
 Apply counting principles to solve probability problems

WHAT YOU LEARNED ABOUT PROBABILITY IN GRADE 11

In Grade 11 you covered the following probability concepts:

 The addition rule for mutually exclusive events
 The complementary rule: P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
 The probability identity: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
 Dependent and independent events
 The product rule for independent events: P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B)
 The use of Venn diagrams to solve probability problems
 The use of tree diagrams to determine the probability of consecutive or
simultaneous events which are not necessarily independent

VENN DIAGRAMS
✓ Venn diagrams are a graphical way of depicting sets and are very useful when
you are solving probability questions.

1
 EXAMPLE 1

☞
Cards numbered from 1 to 15 are put into a box. A card is randomly
selected from the box. Consider the following events:
 Event E: an even number is drawn
 Event F: a factor of 14 is drawn.
 Event M: a multiple of 7 is drawn.
a) Draw a Venn Diagram to represent events E, F and M
b) Calculate the following, giving your answer as a percentage correct
to the nearest whole number:
i) P(F).
ii) Calculate P(M and F)
iii) Calculate P(M or F or E)
SOLUTION:
a) 1 is a factor of 14, but neither
even nor a multiple of 7
S

E 4 F
4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 2 2 is even and a
12 are even,
1
6 factor of 14,
but are neither 8
but not a
factors of 14 10 14 multiple of 7
nor multiples 3 7
of 7 11
9
14 is even, a
15 13 factor of 14 and
M
5 a multiple of 7

b) There are 15 possible outcomes, so n(S) = 15

i) F = {1 ; 2 ; 7 ; 14}, so n(F) = 4
P(F) = n(F) = 4 ≈ 0,2667 ≈ 27%
n(S) 15

ii) The elements in M and F = {7 ; 14}, so n(M and F) = 2

P(M and F) = n(M and F) = 2 ≈ 0,1333 ≈ 13%
n(S) 15

iii) M or F or E = {1; 2; 4; 6; 7; 8; 10; 12; 14}, so n(M or F or E) = 9

P(M or F or E) = n(M or F or E) = 9 = 3 = 0,6 = 60%
n(S) 15 5

2
 ✓ A Venn diagram can help you find P(A and B) and P(A or B)

The shaded area below shows A and B. The shaded area below shows A or B.

EXAMPLE 2

☞
The Venn diagram shows the number of learners in a school who play
soccer, cricket and hockey.
S
Soccer Cricket
25 32
67
12
26 17

8
Hockey 37

a) Determine n(S), where S is the sample set.

b) How many learners play soccer, cricket and hockey?
c) How many learners play cricket and hockey?
d) How many learners play cricket or hockey?
e) What is the probability that one of these learners selected at random
plays cricket or hockey?
SOLUTION:
a) This shaded section shows you all the
learners in the school:

n(S) = 67 + 25 + 32 + 26 + 12 + 17 + 8 + 37
= 224

3
 EXAMPLE 2 (continued)
b) The shaded section shows the learners who
play soccer, cricket and hockey.

n(soccer, cricket and hockey) = 12

c) The shaded section shows you all the learners

who play cricket and hockey:

n(cricket and hockey) = 12 + 17 = 29

d) The shaded section shows you all the learners

who play cricket or hockey:

n(cricket or hockey)
= 25 + 32 + 26 + 12 + 17 + 8
= 120

n(cricket or hockey) 120 15

e) P(cricket or hockey) = n(S)
= 224 = 28 ≈ 0,5357 ≈ 54%
This means that the chances of a learner selected at random who plays either cricket or hockey is just
over half.

4
 EXERCISE 6.1

1) There are 250 Grade 12 learners at M P

Greenwood Secondary School. The
Venn diagram below shows the 63
21
number of learners in the school who
take Mathematics (M), Physical 52
Sciences (P) and Life Sciences (L). 26
a) How many learners take
Mathematics? 64
b) How many learners take L 24
Mathematics, Physical Sciences
and Life Sciences?
c) What is the probability, as a fraction in simplest form, that one of these Grade 12
learners, selected at random takes
i) Physical Sciences or Life Sciences?
ii) Physical Sciences and Life Sciences?

2) 120 shoppers are surveyed at a till to determine whether they buy full-cream (FC),
low fat (LF) or skimmed milk (S). They determined that:
 75 shoppers bought full cream milk
 41 shoppers bought low fat milk
 7 shoppers bought skimmed milk
 16 shoppers bought full cream and low fat milk
 3 shoppers bought low-fat and skimmed milk
 1 shoppers bought full-cream and skimmed milk
 1 shopper bought full-cream, low-fat and skimmed milk.
a) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the given data.
b) How many shoppers did not buy any milk?
c) What is the probability, written as a fraction in simplest form, that one of these
shoppers, selected at random, bought low-fat or skimmed milk?

5
 INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS
✓ Independent events are events where the outcomes of the second event is not
affected by the outcomes of the first event.

For example:
Three Grade 12 learners (Sipho, Mpho and Jacob) are
randomly selected before school and after school to
carry books for a teacher. www.123rf.com
The event of Sipho being selected to carry books before school will not affect
the probability of him being selected to carry books after school.

The events of carrying books before school and carrying books after school
are independent events.

✓ Dependent events are events that are not independent. The probability of
independents events DO affect each other.

For example:
The probability of taking an umbrella to work is
dependent on the probability that it will rain.
www.flickr.com

✓ When events are independent you can work out the probability that they both
occur by multiplying the probabilities.
i.e. For events A and B, P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

☞
EXAMPLE 3
Mmatladi and Eva run a 1 km race. The probability that Mmatladi
finishes the race within 5 minutes is 0,67 and the probability that Eva
finishes the race within 5 minutes is 0,82.
a) Are the events of Mmatladi finishing the race within 5 minutes and
Eva finishing the race within 5 minutes independent?
b) Who is a better runner, Mmatladi or Eva?
c) What is the probability that both Mmatladi and Eva finish the race
within 5 minutes?
SOLUTION:
a) The two events are independent. Mmatladi‟s finishing time will not affect Eva‟s
time.
b) Eva is a better runner. The probability that she finishes the race within 5 minutes is
greater than Mmatladi‟s probability.
c) P(both finish within 5 min)
= P(Mmatladi finishes within 5 minutes and Eva finishes within 5 minutes)
= P(Mmatladi finishes within 5 min) × P(Eva finishes within 5 min)
= 0,67 × 0,82
≈ 0,5494
≈ 55%

6
 EXERCISE 6.2

1) Are the events described below dependent or independent? Give a reason for your
answer.
a) Randomly drawing a red card from a standard deck, replacing it and then
randomly drawing a heart.
b) Randomly picking a red counter from a cup containing 3 red counters, 2 blue
counters and 1 green counter, not returning it and then randomly selecting a blue
counter from the cup.
c) Running in a thunderstorm and being struck by lightning.
d) Swimming in the ocean and being bitten by a shark
e) Watching television and wearing a red T-shirt

2) The fair spinner shown alongside is spun twice.

a) Is the result of the second spin dependent or
independent of the first spin?
b) Calculate the probability that the spinner will
land on 4 twice.

www.norma-pages.blogspot.com
3)
Events A and B are independent.
A B The Venn diagram shows that
 P(A) = x + 0,25
0,25 x 0,15  P(B) = x + 0,15.
 P(A and B) = x.

Form an equation and work out the possible

value(s) of x.

7
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
✓ Events that are mutually exclusive cannot happen at the same time.
For example:
o A learner cannot live in Mpumalanga and in Northern Cape at the same time.
o A learner cannot be in Grade 10 and in Grade 12 at the same time.

✓ Events that are not mutually exclusive could occur at the same time.
For example:
A learner could live in Mpumalanga and be in Grade 10.

✓ When events are not mutually exclusive we can find the probability of one or
the other occurring by using the identity:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

As can be seen by looking at a Venn diagram, we need to subtract

P(A and B) from P(A) + P(B), otherwise it will be included twice.

S
A B

✓ When events are mutually exclusive we can find the probability of one event or
the other occurring by adding the probabilities of each happening.
i.e. For events A and B, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B), because P(A and B) = 0.

The Addition Rule for mutually exclusive events is really just a special case of
the Addition Rule for not mutually exclusive events.
Since A and B cannot occur together, P(A and B) = 0.

Remember:

 Independent events are events where one does not affect the other. For example,
the probability of winning a race is not affected by the probability of wearing a red
T-shirt.

 Mutually exclusive events are events that do not share any elements. The
probability of wearing a red T-shirt and the probability of wearing a blue T-shirt are
mutually exclusive because a whole T-shirt cannot be red and blue at the same time.

8
 EXAMPLE 4

☞
The data in this table gives the number of Primary Schools and
Secondary Schools in Education Districts in Gauteng.
Primary Secondary
District Total
School School
EKURHULENI EAST 2 356 1 990 4 346
EKURUHLENI WEST 3 240 4 709 7 949
GAUTENG NORTH 112 289 401
GAUTENG WEST 813 1 735 2 548
JOHANNESBURG EAST 1 266 3 1 269
JOHANNESBURG NORTH 861 2 131 2 992
JOHANNESBURG SOUTH 2 607 2 171 4 778
JOHANNESBURG WEST 1 783 1 691 3 474
SEDIBENG EAST 581 395 976
SEDIBENG WEST 1 400 1 377 2 777
TSHWANE NORTH 2 555 2 416 4 971
TSHWANE SOUTH 2 312 4 029 6 341
GAUTENG TOTAL 20 441 27 034 47 475
a) Are the events randomly selecting a school in Ekurhuleni East and
randomly selecting a school in Johannesburg North mutually
exclusive? Explain your answer.
b) What is the probability of randomly selecting a school that is in
Ekurhuleni East or in Johannesburg North?
c) Are the events randomly selecting a Secondary School and
randomly selecting a school from Tshwane North mutually
exclusive? Explain your answer.
d) What is the probability of randomly selecting a school in Gauteng
that is a Secondary School or a school in Tshwane North?
SOLUTION:
a) The events randomly selecting a S
school in Ekurhuleni East and
randomly selecting a school in EE JN
Johannesburg North are mutually
exclusive. A school cannot be located 4 346 2 992
in two districts.
This is shown in the Venn diagram:

b) P(EE or JN) = P(EE) + P(JN)

n(EE) n(JN)
= + n(S)
n(S)
4 346 2 992
= 47 475 + 47 475
2 446
= 15 825
≈ 0,1546
≈ 15%

9
 EXAMPLE 4 (continued)
c) The two events „randomly selecting a Secondary
Secondary School‟ and „randomly selecting TN
a school in Tshwane North‟ are not
mutually exclusive. There are schools that 24 618 2 416 2 555
are both Secondary Schools and in
Tshwane North.
This is shown in the Venn diagram.
d) P(Sec or TN) = P(Sec) + P(TN) – P(Sec and TN)
n(Sec) n(TN)
= +
n(S) n(S)
27 034 4 971 2 416
= + −
47 475 47 475 47 475
29 589
= 47 475
9 863
= 15 825
≈ 0,6233
≈ 62%

10
 EXERCISE 6.3

1) Are the events described below mutually exclusive or not mutually exclusive? Give
a reason for your answer
a) A red counter is taken from a cup containing 3 red counters, 2 blue counters and
5 yellow counters, and then a blue counter is taken.
b) A red card is drawn from a standard deck of cards and then a King is drawn.
2) You select a card at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability
that the card is a 3 or a 7? Give your answer as a common fraction in simplest form.
3) You select a card at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability
that the card is 3 or red? Give your answer as a common fraction in simplest form.
4) Sibongile throws a biased dice. A biased dice is an unfair dice. Each number is
NOT equally likely. On this dice the probabilities of throwing each number are
shown in the table below:
Number on dice 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 0,08 0,04 0,125 0,167 0,33 0,258
a) On which number is the dice most likely to land?
b) Are the events of the dice landing on 5 and the dice landing on 6 mutually
exclusive? Explain why or why not.
c) What is the probability, as a decimal correct to 2 decimal places, that Sibongile
throws:
i) a 5 or 6?
ii) an even number?
5) 250 people were asked whether they watched rugby and/or cricket on television.
180 people watched rugby, 99 watched cricket and 87 watched both rugby and
cricket. What is the probability, correct to the nearest full percentage, that one of
these people, chosen at random, watched rugby or cricket?

11
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
✓ Complementary events are events that cannot happen at the same time.

Examples of complementary events are:

o Rolling a 5 on a dice and not rolling a 5 on a dice. It is certain that either
the dice will land on 5 or not on 5.
o Randomly selecting a learner who lives in a house and randomly selecting a
learner who does not live in a house. It is certain that a learner will either
live in a house or not in a house.
o Randomly selecting a learner who is a girl and randomly selecting a learner
who is not a girl (i.e. a boy). It is certain that the learner selected will be
either a boy or a girl.

Examples of events that are NOT complementary:

o Rolling a 5 on a dice and rolling a 3 on a dice. It is not certain that the dice
will only land on 5 or 3 as it could also land on 1, 2, 4 or 6. The events of
rolling a 5 and rolling a 3 are mutually exclusive, but not complementary.
o Randomly selecting a learner who lives in a house and randomly selecting a
learner who lives in a traditional dwelling. It is not certain that a learner
lives only in a house or a traditional dwelling. They may also live in a flat,
townhouse, a room at the back of a house, etc.

✓ When events are complementary, the event either happens (A) or does not
happen (not A). It is certain that they will happen, or not happen
so P(A) + P(not A) = 1.
Another way to say this is P(not A) = 1 – P(A) or P(A) = 1 – P(not A).

✓ Complementary events can also be shown on a Venn Diagram:

A
They grey section
represents the events
that are not A.

12
 ☞
EXAMPLE 5

Out of 3 330 976 learners surveyed in 2009 Census@Schools, 199 610

lived in an informal dwelling. What is the probability that a learner
selected at random did not live in an informal dwelling?

SOLUTION:
199 610
P(informal dwelling) = 3 330 976
P(not informal dwelling) = 1 – P(informal dwelling)
199 610
=1−
3 330 976
3 131 366
=
3 330 976
It is very likely that a learner selected at
≈ 0,9401 random will not live in an informal dwelling.
≈ 94%

☞
EXAMPLE 6
a) What is the probability of throwing no sixes when rolling a dice
four times?
b) What is the probability of throwing at least one six in four rolls of a
regular fair six-sided dice?

SOLUTION:
Each roll of the dice is independent of the roll before.
1
a) In one roll, P(6) = 6
So, P(no 6) = 1 − P(6) = 1 − 1 = 5
6 6
In four rolls, P(no 6 and no 6 and no 6 and no 6)
=P(no 6)  P(no 6)  P(no 6)  P(no 6)
5 5 5 5
=6× × ×
6 6 6
625
= 1 296 “At least one” means you could
get 1, 2, 3 or 4 sixes when you
≈ 48% roll the dice four times.

b) When you throw a dice, either you will get a 6 or you won‟t get a 6.
When you throw a dice four times, either you get no 6 or you get at least one 6.
i.e. The events „get no 6‟ and „get at least one 6‟ are complementary.
P(at least one 6 in 4 rolls of the dice)
= 1 – P(no 6 in 4 rolls of the dice)
625
= 1 – 1 296
671
= There is a greater chance that you will get at least one 6 than of
1 296 getting no 6 when you throw a dice four times.
≈ 52%

13
 EXERCISE 6.4

Work correct to 2 decimal places where necessary.

1) If P(A) = 0,35 and P(B) = 0,22, find

a) P(not A)
b) P(A or B) if A and B are mutually exclusive events.
c) P(A or B) if A and B are independent events.
2) The Venn diagram below illustrates the number of learners in a school who play
soccer and those who are boys.

S
191 Boys

64 214 31

Soccer

Use the Venn diagram to determine:

a) The number of learners in the school.
b) The number of girls in the school.
c) The number of learners who do not play soccer.
d) The probability that one of these learners, chosen at random:
i) is a boy and plays soccer.
ii) is a girl or plays soccer.

14
 TREE DIAGRAMS
✓ Tree diagrams are very useful for solving probability problems where events
are independent and where events are dependent.

☞
EXAMPLE 7
In a game, two numbers from 1 to 12, have to be randomly selected
from the numbers in a box. A number is drawn, put back and then the
second number is drawn.
a) Find the probability that both numbers are less than 5.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the numbers is less than 5.
SOLUTION:
There are 12 possible outcomes each time a number is drawn, so n(S) = 12.
There are 4 favourable outcomes that are less than five: {1; 2; 3 and 4}.
There are 8 possible outcomes that are five or more than 5: {5; 6; 7; 8; 9; 10; 11; 12}.

 The possible outcomes can be represented in a Venn diagram as follows:

S
Key:
<5 ≥5 Numbers less than 5 <5
4 5 7 Number 5 and numbers more
1 8 ≥5
than 5
2 6 9
10
3 11
12

Notice that the sets are disjoint. This means that they are mutually exclusive. A
number cannot be less than 5 and 5 or more than 5 at the same time.

 You can also construct a tree diagram of the outcomes of the first number selected
and the second number selected. The second number selected is independent of the
first number selected because the first number is returned to the box. This means
the denominators on each branch of the tree diagram will be 12 each time.

1st number 2nd number Possible outcomes

4

4
12 <5 (<5 ; <5)
12 <5
8
12
≥5 (<5 ; ≥5)
4

8
12 <5 (≥5 ; <5)
12 ≥5
8 ≥5 (≥5 ; ≥5)
12

4 4 1
a) P(<5 and <5) = 12 × 12 = 9 ≈ 0,1111

15
 EXAMPLE 7 (continued)
b) Method 1:
P(at least one number less than 5)
= P( (<5 and <5) OR (<5 and ≥5) OR (≥5 and <5) )
= P(<5 and <5) + P(<5 and ≥5) + P (≥5 and <5)
4 × 4)+ (4 × 8)+(8 × 4)
= (12
12 12 12 12 12
16 32 32
= 144 + +
144 144
80
=
144
5
=9
≈ 0,55561

Method 2:
The events „getting at least one number less than 5‟ and „getting no numbers less
than 5‟ (i.e. the event of getting both numbers more than or equal to 5) are
complementary.
8 4
P(≥5 and ≥5) = × 8 =
12 12 9 4 5
P(at least one number less than 5) = 1 – P(≥5 and ≥5) = 1 − 9 = 9
≈ 0,5556

EXAMPLE 8

☞
In a game, two numbers from 1 to 12, are to be randomly selected.
A number is drawn. It is not put back and then the second number is
drawn.
Find the probability that both numbers are less than 5.

SOLUTION:
There are 12 possible outcomes the first time a number is drawn and 11 possible
outcomes the second time a number is drawn because the first number is not replaced.
This means that the second number selected depends on the first number selected.

1st number 2nd number Possible outcomes

3
11 <5 (<5 ; <5)
4
12
<5
8
11
≥5 (<5 ; ≥5)
4
11 <5 (≥5 ; <5)
≥5
8
12
7 ≥5 (≥5 ; ≥5)
11
4 3 1
P(<5 ; <5) = 12 × 11 = 11 ≈ 0,0909

16
 EXERCISE 6.5

 Give each of the answers in this exercise as a percentage correct to

the nearest whole number.

1) Vusi rides his bike to school. He has to go through two intersections

with robots (traffic lights). He has to stop at the first robot 55% of the
time. He has to stop at the second robot 20% of the time. The robots
are independent of each other.
a) What percentage of the times does he jerrin-
i) Not stop at the first robot? it.blogspot.com
ii) Not stop at the second robot?
b) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the situation and fill in the values along the
branches.
c) What is the probability that, on any particular day, he will have to stop
i) At both of the robots?
ii) At one of the robots?
2) The probability that a tennis player has no injuries (NI) is 0,7.
The probability that she will win a game (W) if she has no injuries is 0,9.
When the tennis player has injuries (I) the probability of her winning becomes 0,45.
a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the situation
b) Calculate the probability of her winning her next tennis game.
3) The South African Weather Bureau predicts that the days in
Johannesburg in summer could be:
✓ HOT or
✓ WET or
✓ HOT and WET.
The chance that any day will be hot (H) is 70%.
The chance that any day will be wet (W) is 43%.
The chance that a day will be hot and wet is 27%.
Without the use of a tree diagram calculate the probability of any day in summer
being HOT or WET.
4) Raesetja and Makoena have entered a Maths quiz. They are asked two questions.
The probability that they get the first answer correct (C) is 0,8.
If the first answer is correct, the probability of them getting the next answer correct
is 0,7.
However, if they get the first answer wrong (W), the probability of them getting the
next answer correct is only 0,4.
a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the situation.
b) Determine the probability that they get the second answer correct.
5) A drawer contains twenty envelopes.
Eight of the envelopes each contain five blue and three red sheets of paper.
The other twelve envelopes each contain six blue and two red sheets of paper.
One envelope is chosen at random and a sheet of paper is chosen at random from it.
a) Draw a tree diagram first showing the possible outcomes when selecting the
envelopes and then the possible outcomes when selecting the sheets of paper.
b) What is the probability that this sheet of paper is red?

17
 CONTINGENCY TABLES
✓ A contingency table represents the frequencies of events involving two or more
variables. The categories of the variables are listed along the top and down the
side.

EXAMPLE 9

☞
The following data was collected by Census@Schools 2009. The data
gives the ages of learners in each grade in the Eastern Cape.
Age (in years)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Total
Grade 8 478 600 316 78 0 0 0 0 0 1 472
Grade 9 155 696 1 019 197 0 0 0 0 0 2 067
Grade 10 0 459 1 764 565 0 0 0 0 0 2 788
Grade 11 0 0 1 518 706 0 0 0 0 0 2 224
Grade 12 0 0 0 26 300 335 79 88 18 846
TOTAL 633 1 755 4 617 1 572 300 335 79 88 18 9 397

a) How many learners were surveyed?

b) How many learners were in Grade 10?
c) How many learners were 15 years old?
d) How many learners were in Grade 10 and 15 years old?
e) What is the probability that one of these learners selected at random
i) would have been in Grade 10
ii) would have been 15 years old
iii) would have been in Grade 10 and 15 years old?
SOLUTION:
Age (in years)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Total
Grade 8 478 600 316 78 0 0 0 0 0 1 472
Grade 9 155 696 1 019 197 0 0 0 0 0 2 067
Grade 10 0 459 1 764 565 0 0 0 0 0 2 788 B
Grade 11 0 0 1 518 706 0 0 0 0 0 2 224
Grade 12 0 0 0 26 300 335 79 88 18 846
Total 633 1 755 4 617 1 572 300 335 79 88 18 9 397 A

C D
a) 9 397 learners from Eastern Cape were surveyed. (Read at A)
b) 2 788 learners were in Grade 10. (Read at B)
c) 4 617 learners were 15 years old. (Read at C)
d) 1 764 learners were in Grade 10 and 15 years old. (Read at D)
e)
i) P(Gr 10) =
n(Gr 10)
=
2 788 ≈ 0,296 7
n(S) 9 397
ii) P(15 years) = n(15 yr olds) = 4 617 ≈ 0,4913
n(S) 9 397
iii) P(Grd 10 and 15 yrs) = n(Gr 10 and 15 yrs) = 1 764 ≈ 0,1877
n(S) 9 397

18
 ✓ Remember, when events are independent we can work out the probability that
they both occur by multiplying the probabilities.
i.e. For events A and B, P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

✓ We can also use this rule to determine whether or not events are independent.
i.e. If P(A) × P(B) = P(A and B), the events A and B are independent.

EXAMPLE 10

☞
Use the contingency table in Example 9 to determine whether the
events of a learner being in Grade 10 and a learner being 15 years old
are independent. Justify your answer.

SOLUTION:
 To test whether events are independent you need to check whether
P(A) × P(B) = P(A and B)
2 788 4 617
P(Gr 10) × P(15 yrs) = 9 397 × 9 397 ≈ 0,1458

P(Gr 10 and 15 yrs) ≈ 0,1877 � From question g) in the previous example

 P(Gr 10) × P(15 yrs) ≠ P(Gr 10 and 15 yrs)

So, the events of being in Grade 10 and being 15 years old are not independent (or we
can say they are dependent)

 The probability of being in Grade 10 depends on your age and you are more likely
to be in Grade 10 when you are 15 years old than when you are 6 years old.

19
 EXERCISE 6.6

Give each of the answers in the exercise (where necessary) as a

percentage correct to 2 decimal places.

1) The table below from Census@Schools 2009 shows the number of male and female
learners and the colour of both their eyes. Study the table and answer the questions
below:
Brown Green Blue Other Total
Male 60 531 1 615 2 235 5 095 69 476
Female 66 993 2 015 2 449 4 686 76 143
Total 127 524 3 630 4 684 9 781 145 619

a) Are the events of selecting a learner with brown eyes and selecting a learner
with blue eyes mutually exclusive? Explain your answer.
b) Are the events of selecting a learner with brown eyes and selecting a learner
with blue eyes complementary? Explain your answer.
c) Are the events of selecting a male learner and selecting a female learner
complementary? Explain your answer.
d) What is the probability that one of these learners, selected at random:
i) Has blue eyes?
ii) Is female?
e) Are the events of having blue eyes and being female independent? Justify your
answer with calculations.
2) The table below shows data collected by 2009 Census@School about the favourite
sports amongst girls and boys in the Free State.
Boys Girls Total
Soccer 3 068 425 3 493
No Favourite sport 801 1 922 A
Netball 29 2 259 2 288
Athletics B 394 688
Rugby 375 9 384
Volleyball 154 227 381
Cricket 274 57 331
Dance Sport 86 C 326
Other 63 249 312
Total 5 144 D 10 926

a) Calculate the value of A, B, C and D.

b) One of these learners is randomly selected. What is the probability that this
learner:
i) Prefers netball?
ii) Is a girl?
iii) Prefers netball and is a girl?
c) Without doing any calculations, say whether you think the events of preferring
netball and being a girl are independent. Explain why.
d) Show with calculations whether the events of preferring netball and being a girl
are independent or dependent.

20
 COUNTING PRINCIPLES
✓ It is possible to list all possible outcomes using a tree diagram. When you have
many possible outcomes, a tree diagram can become very messy and it becomes
difficult to count the possible outcomes.

Counting principles help you to count the possible outcomes without drawing a
tree diagram.

a) Arrangements with Repeats

✓ It will help you understand the counting principles by thinking back to the tree
diagrams that you used in previous grades.

EXAMPLE 11

☞
a) A coin is tossed twice. How many outcomes are there?
b) A coin is tossed three times. How many outcomes are there?
c) A coin is tossed four times. How many outcomes are there?
d) A coin is tossed twenty times. How many outcomes are there?

SOLUTION:
a) You can use a tree diagram to help you find the number of outcomes when a coin is
tossed twice:
1st toss 2nd toss Possible outcomes
H (H ; H)
H
T (H ; T)

H (T ; H)
T
T (H ; T)
There are two possible outcomes for the first toss.
There are two possible outcomes for the second toss.
There are 2 × 2 = 4 outcomes in total.

21
 EXAMPLE 11 (continued)
b) You can use a tree diagram to help you find the number of outcomes when a coin is
tossed three times:
1st toss 2nd toss 3rd toss Possible outcomes
H (H ; H; H)
H
T (H ; H; T)

H
H (H ; T; H)
T
T (H ; T; T)

H (T ; H; H)
H
T (T ; H; T)

T
H (T ; T; H)
T
T (T ; T; T)
There are two possible outcomes for the first toss.
There are two possible outcomes for the second toss.
There are two possible outcomes for the third toss.
There are 2 × 2  2 = 8 outcomes in total.
c) It becomes more difficult to draw a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes
when a coin is tossed 4 times. Below is a simple sketch of what one might look
like:

When a coin is tossed four times:

There are two possible outcomes for the first toss.
There are two possible outcomes for the second toss.
There are two possible outcomes for the third toss.
There are two possible outcomes for the fourth toss.
There are 2 × 2  2  2 = 16 outcomes in total.

d) It is not easy to draw a tree diagram for 20 tosses, but you should be seeing a
pattern.
If a coin is tossed 20 times, there will be 2 × 2 × 2…. (to 20 terms) possible
outcomes, i.e. number of possible outcomes = 220 = 1 048 576.

22
 ✓ The fundamental counting principle is a quick method for calculating numbers
of outcomes using multiplication.

✓ The fundamental counting principle states:

Suppose there are n1 ways to make a choice, and for each of these there are n2
ways to make a second choice, and for each of these there are n3 ways to
make a third choice, and so on.
The product n1  n2  n3  ...  nk is the number of possible outcomes.

✓ In simple language the fundamental counting principle says:

“If you have several stages of an event, each with a different number of
outcomes, then you can find the TOTAL number of outcomes by multiplying the
number of outcomes of each stage.”

For example:
o We can use the fundamental counting principle to find the number of
outcomes when a coin is tossed four times.
 There are 2 ways to get the first outcome (H or T).
 There are 2 ways to get the second outcome (H or T).
 There are 2 ways to get the third outcome (H or T).
 There are 2 ways to get the fourth outcome (H or T).
The number of possible outcomes when a coin is tossed four times
= 2  2  2  2 = 16

o We can use the fundamental counting principle to find the number of

outcomes when a dice is tossed three times.
 There are 6 ways to get the first outcome (1; 2; 3; 4; 5 or 6)
 There are 6 ways to get the second outcome (1; 2; 3; 4; 5 or 6)
 There are 6 ways to get the third outcome (1; 2; 3; 4; 5 or 6)
The number of possible outcomes when a dice is tossed three times
= 6  6  6 = 216

23
 b) Arrangements without Repeats

✓ Sometimes we have examples where an event can only be used once.

☞
EXAMPLE 12
a) Two counters marked A and B are randomly drawn from a box.
When a counter is taken, it is not returned. How many ways can
these letters be drawn, i.e. how many possible outcomes are there?
b) Three counters marked A, B and C are randomly drawn from a box.
When a counter is taken, it is not returned. How many possible
outcomes are there?
SOLUTION:
a) 1st counter 2nd counter Possible outcomes
A B (A ; B)

B A (B ; A)

If A is the first letter, then B must be the second letter.

If B is the first letter, then A must be the second letter.
There are two possible outcomes for the first letter.
There is only one possible outcome for the second letter.
So the number of possible outcomes = 2 × 1 = 2.

b) 1st disc 2nd disc 3rd disc Possible outcomes

B C (A ; B ; C)
A
C B (A ; C ; B)

A C (B ; A ; C)
B
C A (B ; C ; A)

A B (C ; A ; B)
C
B A (C ; B ; A)

There are three possible outcomes for the first letter.

There are two possible outcomes for the second letter.
There is only one possible outcome for the third letter.
So the number of possible outcomes = 3 × 2 × 1 = 6.

24
 ✓ Multiplying the number of possible outcomes of events each time can also be
used in other contexts.

☞
EXAMPLE 13
You are going out with your friends. You are going to watch a movie
and then you are going to a restaurant.
There are three movies that you would like to watch.
There are five restaurants where you would like to eat.
You can only choose one movie and one restaurant.
How many different combinations of movie and restaurant are there?
SOLUTION:
You do not have to draw a tree diagram, but you may like to think about a tree diagram.

Number of combinations = number of movies  number of restaurants

=3×5
= 15

c) Factorial Notation

✓ The arrangement of numbers 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 can be written as 4!

You say „4 factorial’.
6! = 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
n! = n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) × (n – 3) × (n – 4) ×….. × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1

✓ Factorial notation is used for finding the total number of outcomes without
repeats.

✓ Most scientific calculators have a factorial key.

 On the Casio fx-82ZA PLUS, the factorial key (x!) is next to the (x-1).
To calculate 6!, enter the number (e.g. 6) then press [SHIFT] [x –1] (x!) [=]

 On the Sharp EL-W535HT, the factorial key (n!) is next to the 1.

To calculate 6!, enter the number (e.g. 6) then press: [2nd F] [4] (n!) [=]

25
 EXAMPLE 14

☞
SOLUTION:
a) A three digit code is made up of numbers 3, 5 and 7. The digits
may be repeated. How many different codes are possible?
b) A three digit code is made up of numbers 3, 5 and 7. Each digit is
used only once. How many different codes are possible?

a) There are three places to fill

The first place may be filled by 3, 5 or 7, so there are 3 possible numbers for the
first place.
The second space may be filled by 3, 5 or 7, so there are 3 possible numbers for the
second place.
And the third space may be filled by 3, 5 or 7, so there are 3 possible numbers for
the third place.
So, because the numbers can be repeated, there are 3 × 3 × 3 = 27 possible codes.
These 27 different codes are:
333 335 337 353 355 357 373 375 377
533 535 537 553 555 557 573 575 577
733 735 737 753 755 756 773 775 777

b) There are three places to fill

The first space may be filled by 3, 5 or 7, so there are 3 possible numbers for the
first place.
The second space can only be filled in 2 ways and the third space can only be filled
in 1 way.
Because the numbers cannot be repeated, there are 3! = 3  2  1 = 6 codes
possible.
These 6 different codes are: 357; 375; 537; 573; 735; and 753.

✓ WHEN REPEATS ARE ALLOWED, you find the total number of outcomes by
multiplying the number of possible outcomes in each stage of an event.

✓ WHEN REPEATS ARE NOT ALLOWED, you find the total number of
outcomes by multiplying the number of possible outcomes that are left in each
stage of an event.

26
 ✓ Sometimes you don‟t want to arrange all the items, but only some of them.

☞
EXAMPLE 15
a) How many three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 2; 3;
5; 7 and 8 if each digit can be used only once?
b) How many four-digit codes can be formed if the first character must
be a letter of the alphabet and the following three characters must
be digits?
SOLUTION:
a) There are three places to fill

The first place may be filled by 2; 3, 5, 7 or 8, so the first place can be filled 5 ways.
Once that place has been filled, there are four numbers left over.
This means that the second space can only be filled in 4 ways.
Once that place has been filled, there are three numbers left over.
This means that the third space can be filled in 3 ways.
So, the number of three-digit numbers that can be formed = 5 × 4 × 3 = 60.
You could find all sixty 3-digit numbers using a systematic list.
Start at 2, then 3, etc.
235 237 238
253 257 258
273 275 278
etc.

b) There are four places to fill

Since it does not say the digits may not be repeated, we can presume that they can
be repeated.
The first space may be filled in 26 ways because there are 26 letters in the English
alphabet.
The second, third and fourth space can be filled in 10 ways because there are 10
digits to choose from).
So, the number of four-digit numbers that can be formed
= 26 × 10 × 10 × 10 = 26 000.
You could find all 26 000 3-digit numbers using a systematic list.
A000 A001 A002 A003 A004 A005 A006 A007 A008 A009
A010 A011 A012 A013 A014 A015 A016 A017 A018 A019
A020 A021 A022 A023 A024 A025 A026 A027 A028 A029
etc.

27
 EXERCISE 6.7

1) Write each of these as a product of digits (e.g. 3! = 3  2  1)

a) 4!
b) 7!
c) 10!
2) Use your calculator to determine each of the following (e.g. 5! = 120)
a) 6!
b) 8!
c) 12!
d) 25!
3) The following menu is offered at a restaurant:
Starter Main Dessert
Chicken livers Peri-peri chicken Fruit salad and ice-cream
Tomato soup Lamb chops Chocolate pudding
Salad Beef rump
Fish and chips

If one starter, one main and one dessert is selected from the menu. How many
combinations of starter, main and dessert could be chosen?
4) The new Gauteng number plate has two letters (from the alphabet A – Z, but not
using vowels), two digits from 0 – 9 and then another two letters (excluding
vowels).
a) How many possible combinations can be created of this number plate?
b) The previous Gauteng number plate had three letters (from the alphabet A – Z,
but not using vowels) and then three digits from 0 – 9. Are there more
combinations of the old or new number plates?
5) Given the numbers: 0; 1; 2; 3; 4 and 5
a) How many 4 digit numbers can be formed if the first digit may not be 0 and the
numbers may not be repeated?
b) How many of these numbers will be divisible by 5?
6) The soccer coach needs the goal posts to be moved on the field. He randomly
chooses five boys out of a group of twenty to help him. How many different groups
of 5 boys can be selected?
7) How many three-character codes can be formed if the first character must be a letter
and the second two characters must be digits?

28
 d) Special Conditions

✓ Sometimes when we are counting the number of arrangements, we are given

special conditions, for example similar groups must be arranged together, or two
or more elements must be put together in the arrangement.

EXAMPLE 16

☞
A photograph needs to be taken of
the Representative Council of
Learners (RCL) at a school.
There are three girls and two boys in
the RCL and all of them need to sit
in one row for the photograph. moooi.com
a) Suppose there is no restriction on the order in which the RCL sits.
In how many ways can the RCL be arranged in a row?
b) Suppose the President and the Vice-President of the RCL must be
seated next to each other, in how many different ways can the RCL
be arranged in a row?
c) Suppose all the girls must sit next to each other, and all the boys
must sit next to each other. In how many different ways can the
RCL be arranged in a row?
SOLUTION:
a) There are five learners in total and 5 places to fill.

Once a learner has been seated in the row, they cannot be seated a second time.
Therefore, there is no repetition.
Number of different arrangements = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5! = 120 different ways.

b) If the President and Vice-President must be seated next to each other, we consider
them as one unit, but with two ways of arranging them: AB or BA.
Once they have been seated, there are 3 places left to fill

This means that there are four units/people to arrange: 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 4! = 24

But because the President and Vice-President can be arranged in two ways, we have
to double this number of arrangements.
Number of different arrangements = (4 × 3 × 2 × 1) × 2 = 4! × 2! = 48 ways.

c) The three girls can be arranged in 3 × 2 × 1 = 3! = 6 ways.

The two boys can be arranged in 2 × 1 = 2! = 2 ways.
But we could seat the girls on the left and the boys on the right, or we could seat the
boys on the left and the girls on the right – so there are 2 further ways of arranging
them.
So, the number of different arrangements = (3 × 2 × 1) × (2 × 1) × 2
= 3! × 2! × 2!
= 24 ways.

29
 EXERCISE 6.8

1) Balls are numbered 1 to 12 and placed in a bag.

A ball is drawn at random and placed on a table in a row.
a) How many different arrangements of the twelve balls are possible?
b) If the balls numbered 8 and 11 are placed next to each other, in how many ways
can the balls be rearranged?
2) Six different red mugs and five different blue mugs have to be arranged on a shelf.
How many arrangements can be made if all the red mugs are put together and all the
blue mugs are put together?
3) Jarred, Rikus, Gareth, Mathope and Fishana are in a hockey team.
The five of them are sitting on a bench waiting for their turn to play.
Jarred and Rikus are sitting next to each other.
In how many different ways can these boys be arranged on the bench?

e) Identical Items in a list

✓ Consider how many arrangements of the letters there are in the word LEEK.
 Here is a list of some of the possible arrangements:
LEEK LEKE LEEK LEKE
LKEE LKEE ELEK EELK etc
 Because the letter E is repeated, we cannot say that there are 4! different
arrangements. In fact, because 2 letters are repeated, there is half the number
of different arrangements than there would be if all four letters were
different.

✓ We say that
 If there are n different items that are all different, then there are
n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) ... n terms or n! arrangements.
 If there are n different items, but one item is repeated twice, then there are
n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) ... n terms divided by 2 or 2! arrangements.
 If there are n different items, but one item is repeated three times, then there
are n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) ... n terms divided by 3 × 2 × 1 or 3!
arrangements.

✓ Sometimes more than one letter is repeated.

 For example, in the word DODO, D is repeated twice and O is repeated
twice
 Here you can say that if there are n different items, but two items are
repeated twice, then there are n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) ... n terms
divided by 2! × 2! arrangements.

30
 EXAMPLE 17

☞
a) In how many ways can you arrange the letters in the word
MEDIAN?
b) In how many ways can you arrange the letters in the word DATA?
c) In how many ways can you arrange letters in the word
PERCENTILE?
d) In how many ways can you arrange the letters in the term
CENSUS@SCHOOL?
e) The letters of the word STATSSA are re-arranged. How many
arrangements will start and end with the letter „T‟?
SOLUTION:
a) There are 6 letters in the word MEDIAN and none of these are repeated.
Number of arrangements = 6! = 720.

b) There are 4 letters in the word DATA and A is repeated twice.

4!
Number of arrangements = 2! = 12

c) There are 10 letters in the word

10!
PERCENTILE and E is repeated three times.
Number of arrangements = 3! = 604 800

d) There are 12 letters and an „@‟ in the term Census@School. S is repeated 3 times,
C is repeated twice and O is repeated twice.
13!
Number of arrangements = 3! ×2! ×2! = 259 459 200
Note: You must enter the × sign between each factorial on your calculator.

e) If the arrangement of the word STATSSA starts and ends in T, then there are 5
letters left to arrange. S is repeated three times and A is repeated twice.
5!
Number of arrangements = 3! ×2! = 10

EXERCISE 6.9

1) In how many ways can you arrange the letters in the word CUMULATIVE?
2) In how many ways can you arrange the letters in the word PROBABILITY?
3) How many arrangements of the letters in the words STANDARD DEVIATION start
and end in N?

31
 f) Using Counting Principles to Find Probability

✓ You can use these counting principles to find the number of possible
outcomes, and you can also use them to find the number of favourable
outcomes.

✓ When you know the number of possible outcomes and the number of
favourable outcomes, you can work out the probability of the favourable
event using the formula
Number of favourable outcomes
Probability of a favourable event = =
Number of possible outcomes

☞
EXAMPLE 18
Suppose a four-digit number is formed by randomly selecting four
digits without repetition from 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7 and 8.

What is the probability that the number formed lies between 4 000 and
5 000?
SOLUTION:
Number of possible outcomes = 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 = 1 680
A number that lies between 4 000 and 5 000 must start with a 4, so there are seven
digits left to arrange and only three places to fill.
Number of favourable outcomes = 7 × 6 × 5 = 210
Number of favourable outcomes
Probability that the number lies between 4 000 and 5 000 =
Number of possible outcomes
210
=
1 680
1
=
8

32
 EXERCISE 6.10

Give each of the answers correct to the nearest percentage.

1) What is the probability that a random arrangement of the letters in the name
„PHILLIPINE‟, start and end in „L‟?
2) If a four digit number is created from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 9, what is the
probability that a randomly chosen number:
a) Is even?
b) Is greater than 4 000?
c) Has digits arranged in ascending order?
3) What is the probability that a random arrangement of the letters BAFANA starts and
ends with an A?

REFERENCES
Department of Basic Education. (2011). Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement,
Grade 10 – 12, Mathematics.
Statistics South Africa. (2010). Census at Schools Results 2009
Murdock, J; Kaminschke, E and Kaminschke E: (2004) Discovering Advanced Algebra,
Key Curriculum Press
Berry, J; Fentem, R; Francis, B and Graham, T ((2000) AS Mathematics, Collins

33