RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA’S

FOREIGN POLICY
 INTRODUCTION
Alfred T Mahan, the American geopolitical scholar highlighted West
Asia as a bridge of three continents (Africa, Asia, Europe), & Advised
British Navy to control West Asia to maintain its hegemony.

India has been historically linked to West Asia through culture,

commerce & colonialism.
INTRODUCTION

It remains a Strategic imperative at present as well as in the

foreseeable future.

Entire region is in India's Security parameter and critical for India's

power projection.

According to Hamid Ansari, the control of the gulf was a strategic

imperative for the defence of colonial possessions.
INTRODUCTION

West Asia is the Land of Great power politics.

In his work, ‘Travelling through conflict’ Ansari has held that strategic
imp of West Asia flows through its geography as a land bridge of 3
continents & natural resources.

However, it suffers from the 'curse of centrality'.

 SIGNIFICANCE OF WEST ASIA FOR INDIA
GEOSTRATEGIC
The famous Great Game left a devastatingly lasting impact on the
states, its politics, peoples, environment, resources, and economies.

Till date internal as well as external transformations such as political

instability, civil wars, sectarian rivalry, religious extremism, and
secessionist movements are making it a volatile and precarious
region.

Therefore this region becomes extremely significant from the

viewpoint of regional security.
SIGNIFICANCE OF WEST ASIA FOR INDIA

West Asia remains one of the essential pillars of counter terrorism.

Good relations with West Asian nations is necessary for countering

ISIS threat and support of GCC for Pakistan and fundamentalism.

This region is the abode of numerous energy resources and houses

trade routes to different parts of the world.
SIGNIFICANCE OF WEST ASIA FOR INDIA

It is also the birthplace of Abrahamic religions of the world.

Like in other regions, India is seen as a 'Balancer' to counter China’s

rise in Middle East.
SIGNIFICANCE OF WEST ASIA FOR INDIA

Further, due to rising US-China tensions, even West Asian countries

are eager to strengthen economic as well as defense partnerships
with India.

West Asia is also nearby to various chokepoints as a result good

relation with these countries remains a prerequisite for India’s image
as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific.
SIGNIFICANCE OF WEST ASIA FOR INDIA

GEO-ECONOMIC
The Gulf-West Asia-North Africa region meets a major share of India’s
energy needs – contributing over 60 per cent of India’s total imports
of crude oil and over 85 per cent of India’s LNG requirements.

There are around 8 to 9 million Indians in West Asia. This community

has a significant impact upon the Indian economy, through inward
remittances.
SIGNIFICANCE OF WEST ASIA FOR INDIA

According to a UN report on international migration, in 2019, inward

remittances from the Gulf into India were 38 billion U.S. dollars.

A trade amount of approximately $80.5 billion goes on with the West

Asian Countries out of which UAE makes up a significant share.

Important trade routes passing through the Persian Gulf and the Suez
canal provides central position to West Asia in trans-Atlantic trade
network.
 BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY
Former Amb. Ranjit Gupta: Policy should be based on mature
recognition of own Iimitations of capability & influence. India's policy
of passivity is prudent' in volatile & unpredictable West Asia.
If speech is silver then in some cases silence is gold.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

Prof. Girijesh Pant: West Asia is not place for display of India's power.
It is place for augmentation of India's power.

Ishrat Aziz: India's policy was based on secular considerations of

geopolitical & geo economic interests & not on ideology & religion.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

Alternative view

S. Jaishankar –India's footprint in west Asia has been autonomous of

strategic calculus. It was mainly driven by markets & focus was on oil
diaspora, however, the strategic aspect was missing.

C. Rajamohan -India's mental map of Middle East was too simplistic. It

was based on two axis, Arab- Israeli conflict & Anti imperialistic
solidarity. It was driven by domestic political expediency rather than
geostrategic vision.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

In the past, India has managed a successful balancing act in a tripolar

West Asia.

Now, the restructuring of West Asia’s geopolitical landscape has

allowed India to engage with West Asian states with even less political
maneuverings.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

Over the years, New Delhi has adapted its foreign policy to suit the
evolving needs and conditions of global politics — from the
ideologically-driven Non-Aligned Movement to a policy based on
greater pragmatism.

In the West Asian context, the principle of non alliance was reflected
in the Nehru-Nasser alliance, through which India supported the
Arabs against Western interference, particularly in the case of
Palestine and the 1956 Suez Crisis.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

Post-Cold War Ideology, a protectionist economy, and advocacy of

Third World concerns were junked; national interest-oriented
pragmatism became the overriding guiding principle.

India ceased viewing West Asia through the prism of its issues with
Pakistan- discontinued the use of strong rhetoric denouncing other
countries’ policies, and abandoned defensive, reactive policy
approaches.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

Also India began to reach out to all West Asian countries without
picking and choosing between them, and on the basis of mutual
benefit.

Since the last three decades, except for continuing O.I.C. activism
relating to Kashmir in particular, there are no bilaterally contentious
political issues between India and the G.C.C. countries.
BACKGROUND OF INDIA’S WEST ASIA POLICY

Since the turmoil in West Asia gathered force in 2011, India has hewed
to a “hands-off” policy based on the principle that regime change
through foreign intervention constitutes a violation of international
norms and law.
 PRESENT POLICY
STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
MEA S. Jaishankar has already clarified that as a nation that imports
85% of its oil primarily through the Gulf, India will push for a
diplomatic resolution of the matter to secure its interests.
PRESENT POLICY

India has assiduously avoided taking sides in any of the region’s

rivalries or conflicts.
India’s current foreign policy towards West Asia is based on 'strategic
autonomy’.

India’s policy is motivated by its active pursuit of economic

opportunities in West Asia, whether it is vis-a-vis energy security or
greater connectivity and trade through the development of Chabahar
Port in the Iranian case.
PRESENT POLICY

THINK WEST POLICY

In a shift in thinking S Jaishankar noted, "If the eastern front is
building upon longstanding policy, the western one is relatively more
recent conceptually.”

He further went on to say, "I can confidently predict that ‘Act East’
would be matched with ‘Think West’.”
PRESENT POLICY

It is based on the realistic assumption of International Relations that

National Interest is the ultimate goal of any state's foreign policy.
Present policy has to be understood in context of overall change in
India's Foreign Policy.

As explained by S. Jaishankar during Raisina dialogue in 2017, India's

Foreign Policy has to be understood in accordance with India's
changed status. India aspires to be a leading power & is willing to
share greater global responsibilities.
CHANGES IN POLICY AND ITS MANIFESTATIONS
Scholar’s take on India-West Asia relations
Talmiz Ahmed- According to Talmiz Ahmed, due to economic rise and
image of India as a neutral, there is growing expectation in West Asia
from India.
CHANGES IN POLICY AND ITS MANIFESTATIONS

Ranjit Gupta- According to Ranjit Gupta Shift in policy post 2014 is a

two way street.

There is a change in perception of countries of the Middle East

because of the rise of India's economic strength, recognition of
Pakistan's role in preventing terrorism, decline of the USA, shift of
global energy market from Trans-Atlantic to Indo-Pacific.
CHANGES IN POLICY AND ITS MANIFESTATIONS

M.K. Narayan- Indian diplomacy still lacks the nimbleness required to

deal with fast-changing situations.
Despite its long time presence in the region, a 9-million strong
diaspora, and the region being its principal source of oil, India is not a
major player today and both Russia and China have overtaken India in
the affairs of the region.
Even in strategically important Iran, the Russia-China-Iran relationship
has greatly blossomed, almost marginalizing India’s influence.
CHANGES IN POLICY AND ITS MANIFESTATIONS

According to Gary Burton, though India’s Look West policy of

Balancing seems to be working but its sustainability is not certain.

India’s present approach has been helped by the wider structural

context in which the region finds itself in.
CHANGES IN POLICY AND ITS MANIFESTATIONS

Further, presently the Middle East has become more multipolar, with
power diffused among a variety of regional and extra-regional actors.

Within this mix India has pursued an approach that balances against
different parties and their rivalries.

But once power ceases to be disparate and starts to become more

concentrated, the scope for such action may start to narrow and the
present window of opportunity could well close.
 CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA
IRAN-SAUDI CONFLICT AND GROWING CLOSENESS BETWEEN CHINA
AND IRAN
Part of American alliance- After WW-II both countries were part of
American alliance against USSR.

1979 revolution- However, after the 1979 revolution, the Islamic

nationalists overtook Iran and spread Shia-centric theology against the
narrative of the Saudi-dominated Muslim world.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

This created a geo-political divide in the region with Saudi in American

camp and Iran working against American and Saudi influence in the
region.

Iraq war 2003 - The differences sharpened after Iraq war, 2003, when
the anti-Iran regime was brought down paving the way for Iran to
increase its influence in the region.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

The Arab Spring increased the rivalry further by proxy wars in

countries like Syria and Yemen.

Obama’s attempts - The attempt by former US president Obama to

normalize relations with Iran through JCPOA were opposed by Saudi
led GCC and Israel and Trump administration pulled out of the
agreement under its ‘Maximum Pressure strategy’
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Sanctions on Iran - The crippling of the economy due to sanctions has

pushed Iran closer to China and both countries have signed a 25 year
strategic cooperation agreement’ which has both economic and
military components.

The intensification of sectarian conflict has also impacted India.

CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

ITS IMPLICATIONS
Due to deterioration of relations between the GCC and Iran, it has
become difficult for New Delhi to pursue its traditional policy of
Balancing the 3 axis- Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Besides Syria and Yemen, Iran and Saudi Arabia have also made
Afghanistan an arena for their regional competitions.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Both countries have significant links with Taliban and had provided
them with funding, arms as well as refugees whenever needed to
safeguard its own interest.

This has direct security implications for India.

Due to US sanctions India has to cut its oil and gas imports from Iran.
Iran possesses the world's 2nd largest natural gas reserves which is
critical for India’s ambitions of clean fuel.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Accusing India of delay in implementation, Iran has dropped India

from Chabahar-Zahedan railway project which was strategically
important for India to link it with Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan.

Due to Proxy wars in Yemen and Syria India had to evacuate Indian
civilians through ‘Operation Raahat’
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

TERRORISM
According to Talmiz Ahmad three sets of regional players are active in
Afghanistan today:
The Pakistan-Saudi coalition, which has been the principal source of
support for the Taliban-at-war.
They would like to remain influential in the new order, but neither
would like to see the Taliban revert to their practices of the 1990s that
had justifiably appalled the global community.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Turkey and Qatar represent the region’s Islamist coalition and, thus,
share an ideological kinship with the Taliban.

Both would like to see a moderate and inclusive administration, but

Turkey is seen as a political and doctrinal antagonist by Saudi Arabia,
while Qatar remains a rival for the kingdom as it backs political Islam
and improved ties with Iran.

The inter-play of these rivalries will resonate in Afghanistan.

CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Iran - while many of its hardliners are overjoyed at the U.S. “defeat”,
more reflective observers recall the earlier Taliban emirate which was
viscerally hostile to Shias and Iran.

Iran also sees itself as the guardian of the Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara
minorities in the country.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

This consideration led its spokesman to “strongly condemn” Pakistani

participation in the Taliban attacks on the resistance fighters, largely
Tajik and Uzbek, in the Panjshir valley.

Secondly, Though ISIS has been defeated, there is strong support for
its ideology and the resurgence of Taliban can further give momentum
to the spread of extremist ideology in west Asia and beyond.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

The recent attack on Kabul Airport is an example of the revival of ISIS.

According to Talmiz Ahmad, Afghanistan already has several thousand

foreign fighters, whose ranks could swell with extremists coming in
from Iraq and Syria, and threaten the security of all neighbouring
states.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

ABRAHAM ACCORDS

As per the accords, the UAE and Bahrain would establish their
respective embassies in Israel and work together with Israel across a
range of sectors, including tourism, trade and security.

On the other hand, it would allow for Muslims to visit one of the
holiest sites in Islam, the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Following the signing of the accords, Sudan and Morocco also

normalised relations with Israel in the same year.

According to Talmiz Ahmad, the rise of the Taliban can strengthen an

Israel-centric security order in which the Arab Gulf states would link
themselves with Israel to confront Iran.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Weakness - However, the weakness of this arrangement is that while

the regimes of some Gulf States could be attracted to it, their
populations are likely to be opposed.

The proposal will also ensure that West Asia remains confrontational
and unstable.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

How Abraham Accords opened West Asia for India

The United States, India, Israel and UAE are in for greater cooperation
and coordination in the region.

Some have already christened this meet as a similar ‘design’ to that of

the Quad of the Middle East.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

Working with all three main centres of power in the region, the Sunni
Arab camp led by UAE and Saudi Arabia, the Jewish power center in
Israel and the seat of power for Shia Islam in Iran, India has leveraged
its autonomous stance post Abhram accords.

From the UAE providing mid-air refuelling to India’s new Dassault

Rafale fighter aircraft on their delivery flight from France to a gambit
of military exercises over the past two years despite challenges posed
by the COVID-19 pandemic shows a sense of urgency from both
regions to expand political and economic ties.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

‘Look West’ policy, which today stands out as an excellent Indian

example of long-term diplomacy, stretching across party and
government lines over the years.

For the Gulf, India continues to provide a significant market, including

for hydrocarbons, despite the narratives of ‘energy transitions’ around
the climate change debate.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

While the likes of Saudi Arabia try to end their economy’s almost
exclusive dependency on oil, the Indian market and its growth
projections are critical to Saudi’s economic transformation plans that
also have a strong component of political transformation, moving
towards a comparatively more inclusive and moderate form of Islam.

India has also cemented itself as a growing political and security

player in the region.
CURRENT TRENDS IN WEST ASIA

From Operation Sankalp where Indian warships proactively escorted

16 Indian-flagged ships a day in and around the Persian Gulf as
tensions between the US and Iran flared up to lesser-known tussles,
such as those by intelligence agencies of India and Pakistan for greater
clout in the UAE and the Gulf, and as per some accounts in recent
times, India managing an upper hand, often forcing Pakistan’s Inter-
Services Intelligence (ISI) to relocate capacity from the traditional
stronghold of Dubai to Turkey.
 DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERPOWERS IN WEST ASIA
DECLINE OF USA RISE OF CHINA
In the words of Talmiz Ahmed, ‘The germ For decades China remained on the
of a new regional security order, without sidelines of West Asia’s stormy waters. Even
the US, in West Asia is already sown in when the country was rising as an economic
fertile ground.’ powerhouse and stepped up cooperation
with the major powers in West Asia, the
cornerstone of this engagement was non-
interference. So it built ties with West Asian
nations based on three principles
● secure energy supplies,
● expand markets for finished goods and
● find investment opportunities
 DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERPOWERS IN WEST ASIA

DECLINE OF USA RISE OF CHINA

Recent events highlight the decline of ‘’ Pax While leaving the U.S.’s primacy in the
Americana’’ in West Asia. region unchallenged.
● In January, 2021 the Gulf Cooperation Council However, under Xi Xinping, China is
(GCC) states led by Saudi Arabia lifted the over trying to occupy the void left by the US in
three year blockade of Qatar; Europe, South Asia as well as in West Asia.
● Since April, there have been three rounds of In recent years, Beijing has been more
discussions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and active in global diplomacy concerning the
plans are in place for the next meetings; region (Iran nuclear deal). It has also
● Turkey has initiated diplomatic overtures started taking strong positions at the UN
towards Egypt and Saudi Arabia. (Syria vetoes); and has even begun flexing
its military muscles (naval exercise with
Russia in the Mediterranean).
DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERPOWERS IN WEST ASIA

DECLINE OF USA RISE OF CHINA

● None of these initiatives involves the Americans. China has become increasingly close to Iran
● On the other hand, on August 24, 2021, Saudi while maintaining close commercial contacts with
Arabia signed a military cooperation agreement Saudi Arabia.
with Russia. This can be considered as a policy of
“strategic hedging” as the U.S. has placed China is also attempting to build alternate regional
restrictions on defence supplies to the kingdom. architecture with Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey.
● Besides this, there were the two conferences in All the countries are also part of China’s ambitious
Baghdad — one set up a coalition of Iraq, Jordan Belt and Road project.
and Egypt for economic cooperation, while the
other, brought together the principal regional
states to confront shared challenges — all these
interactions have taken place without U.S.
presence.
DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERPOWERS IN WEST ASIA
However, according to Manoj Kewalramani, Beijing wants to do more
but is not keen on replicating Washington’s political and military
engagement in the region.

He further adds that there are areas where American and Chinese
interests coincide.
DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERPOWERS IN WEST ASIA

The American presence in the region allows a certain degree of free-

riding for China, at the same time; Washington is unlikely to be
opposed to Beijing committing more resources in this context.

There’s also a chance for alignment on Iran and nuclear non-

proliferation. US secretary of state Antony Blinken acknowledged this
by identifying Iran and Afghanistan among two areas where the
interests of both sides “intersect”.

On values and emerging technologies, however, frictions are likely to

persist and even deepen.
DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERPOWERS IN WEST ASIA

Rising US-China competition - In this context, rising US-China

competition can further complicate matters for India.

China maintaining balanced position in West Asia is more suited for

India as it allows New Delhi to pursue the same. However, if the
intersection of Interests between the US and China doesn’t last then
fault-lines in West Asia geopolitics may deepen impacting Indian
security as well as geo-economic interests.
 WAY FORWARD FOR INDIA
There is broad consensus among scholars that India should not step
over any fault lines in West Asia. However, India needs to secure its
vital interests in West Asia.

New Delhi’s top-most priority should be energy security and welfare

of the diaspora. India needs to consolidate partnership with key
counties (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, UAE) in line with its status as
‘Emerging Global Power’. India needs to display greater political
warmth by active engagements with key regional players.
WAY FORWARD FOR INDIA

India needs to strengthen its role as a net security provider in Indian

Ocean by active naval cooperation with gulf countries.

India also needs to adopt proactive policy to enhance its profile in the
region.

In this context, India can- Organise an annual West Asia Summit

bringing experts, policy makers, officials and academic community
from the region.
WAY FORWARD FOR INDIA

This could be a platform for dialogue on strategic and economic

issues.

It can also initiate an annual regional energy dialogue which will bring
all energy producing West Asian countries and India together.
 CONCLUSION
India needs to adopt proactive policy & step up its diplomatic efforts
to manage deft walk on right rope.

Thus Multiple-alignment remains the best framework to deal with

choppy waters of complex West Asian geopolitics.
AFGHANISTAN
 INTRODUCTION

M.K. Narayanan in his article in The Hindu titled ‘Picking up threads

from Afghan rubble’ mentions that “Due to its geographical
positioning and influence on regional stability, the political future of
Afghanistan will be of considerable significance to several nations with
competing sets of interests as well as to pan-Asian relations as a
whole.”
INTRODUCTION

Afghanistan has been the land of great games, be it the Persian and
Ottoman Empire or Russia and Britain rivalry or USA-USSR rivalry.

It is also known as the graveyard of empires as it was responsible for

the demise of great empires from Alexander the Great to USSR and
Now the mighty US.
INTRODUCTION
Even at present the new great game is emerging between the US and
China in Afghanistan.

Rajiv Sikri in his book, “Rethinking India’s foreign policy” mentions

Kautilya’s Mandal Siddhant.
INTRODUCTION

According to it, a neighbor's neighbor is our friend. Thus, for India, a

friendly, stable regime in Afghanistan is an insurance against
Pakistan’s deep-state.

Peace and stability in Afghanistan is important for India for security in

Kashmir, securing Indian investment in Afghanistan as well as India’s
power projection as a major global power.
 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-
AFGHANISTAN
Beginning of Great game: British designs on preventing any expansion
of Russian influence beyond the north- western border of Afghanistan
started the ‘Great Game’ of the nineteenth century
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-AFGHANISTAN

It established the idea of Afghanistan as a buffer state between British

India and Russian Central Asia, leading to the signing of a MoU
between British India and the Afghan Amir on the ‘Durand Line’ as
delineating their respective spheres of influence.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-AFGHANISTAN

During cold war: In the Cold War decades, particularly until 1979,
Indian and Afghan foreign policy interests had much in common,
though India shied away from close engagement with Afghanistan.

Both countries were among the original members of the Non-Aligned

Movement
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-AFGHANISTAN

Soviet occupation: With the 1979 occupation of Afghanistan by Soviet

troops, India’s non-aligned stance, despite initial protestations to the
Soviets, gave way to a grudging recognition of Soviet-backed rule in
Afghanistan —a low point in the relationship between the two
countries.

Soviet withdrawal: After withdrawal of soviet forces, India, along with

Iran and Russia, started supporting the ‘Northern Alliance’ against the
Pakistan-backed radical Islamist group, the Taliban.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-AFGHANISTAN

USA defeated Taliban: When the Taliban was defeated by American

troops in the aftermath of 11 September 2001, India was one of the
first countries to reopen its embassy in Kabul.

India continued to remain engaged in Afghanistan through political,

economic, cultural, and investment means.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-AFGHANISTAN

Growing closeness between India and Afghanistan: The growing

closeness between India and Afghanistan was evident with the 2011
signing of the Strategic Partnership Agreement, the first such
agreement for India and the first with a country in the region for
Afghanistan, underscoring the crucial role India will play in shaping
Afghanistan’s future.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF INDIA-AFGHANISTAN

Limited role of India - However, India’s role was limited to

developmental partner due to pressure from the US.

The US had made Pakistan a frontline state in its ‘global war on

terrorism’.

This Indian policy was criticized by realists as risk aversion policy or

Panipat syndrome.
 SIGNIFICANCE OF AFGHANISTAN FOR INDIA
GEOSTRATEGIC

Location- Connecting East, West, central and north east Asia.

Proximity to major powers like Russia, China, India, Iran.

Center of the Great game between the USA and Russia since the cold
war.
SIGNIFICANCE OF AFGHANISTAN FOR INDIA

Regional balance power- Peace and stability in Afghanistan is linked to

regional stability and India’s vision of regional leader and global
power.

Internal security- Afghanistan is the center of radical ideology, drug

trafficking and smuggling.

Thus peaceful Afghanistan is necessary for regional security.

SIGNIFICANCE OF AFGHANISTAN FOR INDIA

GEOECONOMIC
Connectivity- Important transit hub for trade and commerce and
access to landlocked Central Asia.
Mineral Wealth- According to the US geological Survey, Afghanistan is
home to resource deposits like iron, copper etc. worth $1 trillion.
Energy Security- Afghanistan has huge untapped sources of
hydrocarbons including oil and gas. Further it is also an important
component of the TAPI pipeline.
 AREAS OF COOPERATION
Economic Cooperation

India is the second largest destination for Afghanistan exports.

Afghanistan possess many minerals like gold, iron, copper etc.

Indian companies have invested in its mining sector

AREAS OF COOPERATION

More than 100 companies have invested in various sectors of its

economy including agriculture, communications, Information
Technology etc.

The proposed TAPI (stands for Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan and

India) pipeline passes through Afghanistan. It is for importing Natural
Gas from Turkmenistan to India.

India, Iran and Afghanistan have jointly signed a trade deal. The deal
aims at investment in Chabahar port for accessing landlocked
Afghanistan by circumventing Pakistan.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

India’s Development Programs in Afghanistan

India continues to assist Afghanistan in its reconstruction program by

providing a bilateral assistance of 2 Billion USD.

India has also completed many infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.

AREAS OF COOPERATION

Some notable examples are

Salma Dam in Herat Province
Parliament Building in Kabul
Road project in Nimroz Province
A power project near Kabul
India also has established hospitals and runs midday meal schemes for
Afghan school children
AREAS OF COOPERATION

Defence Cooperation

India has contributed to the Afghan defence forces in the following

ways:

India provides training to Afghanistan military officers in Indian

military academies
AREAS OF COOPERATION

In 2014 India signed an agreement with Afghanistan and Russia.

According to this agreement Russia will provide all military equipment

needed by Afghanistan and India will pay for it

India has directly provided three Russian-made Mi-25 attack

helicopters to Afghan Air Force in 2015
AREAS OF COOPERATION

Cooperation through Conferences

India and Afghanistan work cooperatively in various associations.
For Example: SAARC, Heart of Asia conference.
 AREAS OF CONTENTION
Terrorism
India wants a democratic and peaceful Afghanistan for stability in its
relations. But the country faces terror threats in the following ways

Afghani Taliban is a major terrorist group.

They have taken over the democratically elected Government in
Afghanistan
AREAS OF CONTENTION

Al Qaeda and many other terrorist groups like Haqqani Network etc.
are very active in Afghanistan

The recent rise of Islamic State terrorists may have spillover effects on
India in future
AREAS OF CONTENTION

These factors concerns India because the terror in Afghanistan has the
following implications

Regional security is threatened

It can affect the good relations between India and Afghanistan.
Internal security of India can be threatened as there is link between
these Afghan terror networks and terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir.
AREAS OF CONTENTION

The Role of Pakistan

Pakistan has always attempted to thwart the good relationship
between India and Afghanistan. Pakistan also attempts to derail
peace in Afghanistan in the following ways

Pakistan has supported many Afghan terrorists by providing funding

and refuge especially the Taliban and Haqqani Network

Pakistan has been known to meddle in the internal affairs of

Afghanistan
AREAS OF CONTENTION

Way forward

The security forces of the USA have left Afghanistan completely.

Now, India can play a proactive role in maintaining peace and provide
security to Afghanistan.

India is also planning for an air cargo link with Afghanistan to improve
the business and supply of goods between the two countries
AREAS OF CONTENTION

India is also planning to scale up direct military assistance to

Afghanistan and actively support its counter terror operations

The ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan are getting weakened and
it presents an opportunity to India for further engagement with
Afghanistan
 INDIA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH TALIBAN
Scholar’s take

Happymon Jacob (Realism): Integrate reconstruction with

reconciliation, otherwise all efforts are futile

Vivek Katju writes: ‘Strategic patience’ cannot be an alibi for inaction;

India must rethink ‘wait and watch’ Afghan policy.
INDIA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH TALIBAN

According to M. K. Narayanan, India should take on a mediating role

among the different nations anxious to involve themselves in
Afghanistan, and produce a formula that would help maintain
Afghanistan’s neutrality and ensure that it becomes a buffer zone to
prevent further Chinese expansionism towards South Asia.
INDIA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH TALIBAN

According to Sushant Sareen, without interfering in Afghanistan’s

internal affairs, India can still build partnerships between various
stakeholders and raise the capacity and capability of Afghan people.

Rakesh Sood and Shiv Shankar Menon (Soft Power): No boots on

ground policy to stay out of the Afghan quagmire
 INTRODUCTION
After a strategic retreat from Kabul following the Taliban takeover in
August 2021, India has re-established its diplomatic presence in
Afghanistan.

India has deployed a team in its embassy in Kabul, 10 months after it

pulled out its officials from the mission following the Taliban’s capture
of power.
INTRODUCTION

The current state of affairs is far from being business as usual.

However, India is on the path for enhancing engagement with the new
regime in Afghanistan.

The engagement will be full of challenges, but with a well-planned and

long-term strategy it has the potency of securing many of India’s
strategic interests in Afghanistan and the region.
 WHAT HAS BEEN INDIA’S APPROACH
TOWARDS TALIBAN?
India had refused to recognise the Taliban regime of 1996-2001.

India had at that time supported the ‘Northern Alliance’ in fighting the
Taliban in Afghanistan.

The alliance was a united military front that came to formation in late
1996 after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban) took over
Kabul.
WHAT HAS BEEN INDIA’S APPROACH TOWARDS TALIBAN?

It fought a war with the Taliban in 2001. This ended the Taliban’s rule
over Afghanistan.

India has long held the position of dealing only with the elected
government in Kabul.

India supports an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled

peace process.

Due to this, India pulled out its officials from its embassy following the
Taliban’s capture of power in August 2021.
WHAT HAS BEEN INDIA’S APPROACH TOWARDS TALIBAN?

India was the one of the first countries to immediately ban all Afghans
traveling to India, including students and patients with a valid Indian
visa.

However, India has been showing flexibility in its earlier rigid policy of
engagement with Taliban considering the changing geopolitical
landscape.
HOW HAS INDIA SUSTAINED ITS ENGAGEMENT
AFTER THE TAKEOVER BY THE TALIBAN?

Even after the closure of the consulates and embassy, India continued
to express concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.

It built regional consensus about the threat of terrorism, voiced its

support for an inclusive government, and provided aid and assistance
to the people of Afghanistan.
HOW HAS INDIA SUSTAINED ITS ENGAGEMENT AFTER THE TAKEOVER BY THE TALIBAN?

Much of this is in sync with the Agreement on Strategic Partnership

(ASP) that India had signed in October 2011.

However, India chose to abstain from the UN Security Council’s calling

on the Taliban to open girl schools.

It continues to remain silent about the worsening situation in

Afghanistan.
HOW HAS INDIA SUSTAINED ITS ENGAGEMENT AFTER THE TAKEOVER BY THE TALIBAN?

India is one of the most visible actors in Afghanistan in humanitarian

support post Taliban takeover.

India has supplied 20,000 metric tonnes of wheat, 13 tonnes of

medicines, winter clothing, 500,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines to
Afghanistan, as well as 1 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines for Afghan
refugees in Iran.

Recently, India sent a small technical team to Kabul in June 2022, to

deal with the humanitarian crisis following the earthquake in Paktika
and Khost provinces as a first responder.
 WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE
TALIBAN?
Security: A stable Afghanistan is crucial for regional and domestic
security of India.

With Afghanistan becoming a center of radical ideology and violence,

such a development would affect Pakistan and inevitably reach India.

Engagement is desired to prevent Afghanistan from becoming another

safe haven for anti-India terrorist groups, and also check Pakistan’s
deepening influence in Kabul.
WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE TALIBAN?

The Taliban’s victory realized two important ideological and strategic

goals of militant Islamists and their Pakistani patron:

(a) Establishing a “pure Islamic Government” in the Heart of Asia;

(b) Securing Pakistan’s “Strategic Depth”. The two concepts are
necessary pre-conditions for attaining another long-held vision of
Islamists.
WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE TALIBAN?

Connectivity: The most important role of Afghanistan is always

considered as India’s gateway to Central Asia. It implies continental
outreach.

For instance, connectivity with Afghanistan and further with Central

Asia have been primarily the reasons for India’s engagement with Iran
to develop Chabahar port.
WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE TALIBAN?

Strengthening regional foothold: Increasing strategic engagements

with Afghanistan is beneficial for strengthening a foothold in the
region.

For example, India’s relations with Iran at present are dominated by

oil.

Diversification of engagements would strengthen India’s relations

with Iran and other countries.
WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE TALIBAN?

Energy Security: To address its energy needs and to sustain its

economic growth, pipelines from Iran and Central Asia would be
extremely important. India sees Afghanistan as an essential
component of the TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India)
pipeline.

Trade: In case of trade, Afghanistan can help India export its products
to Europe, gaining foreign exchange. The railway line from Chabahar
to Zahedan in Afghanistan envisages to connect New Delhi with Iran,
Afghanistan, Central Asia and Europe.
WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE TALIBAN?

Diplomatic Outreach by Taliban: The Taliban have also tried to reach

out to India.

Indian Officials had first met Taliban’s Political Head in Doha (Qatar) in
August 2021 at the request of Taliban.

In the 1990s, the Taliban had excessive reliance on Pakistan for

international recognition.
WHAT IS THE NEED TO ENGAGE WITH THE TALIBAN?

However, circumstances are now different, Pakistan’s economy is in

shambles and its diplomatic space has contracted considerably.

India’s economy and international standing has improved appreciably

since 1990s.

Taliban realizes that it has to reach out to all regional powers,

especially India, to get international recognition for the Islamic
Emirate of Afghanistan.
 WHAT DOES THE CHANGE IN INDIA’S STANCE
SIGNIFY?
First, there seems to be a definite realization that the Taliban regime is
there to stay and no amount of pressure building will dislodge it from
power at least in the near-medium term.

There are indications of the development of some opposition to the

Taliban in the Panjshir valley.

However, there is also no indication of a popular countrywide upsurge

which could push them out.
WHAT DOES THE CHANGE IN INDIA’S STANCE SIGNIFY?

Second, there seems to be some convergence in the policy and

strategic circles that engagement, not complete detachment, could be
the key to securing India’s vital strategic interests in Afghanistan.

This needs to be done when the Taliban regime is still isolated

internationally and therefore amenable to India’s presence.
WHAT DOES THE CHANGE IN INDIA’S STANCE SIGNIFY?

The complexity of circumstances in Afghanistan leaves very limited

options, as summed by the US Officials: Engage, Isolate, or Oppose.

The US officials say they are focusing on the first two options.

India’s approach appears to be similar.

WHAT DOES THE CHANGE IN INDIA’S STANCE SIGNIFY?

Third, it shows that India is unwilling to repeat the past mistake of

1996, when New Delhi shut its embassy for 5 years, reducing
Afghanistan to a strategic and intelligence black hole.

Fourth, it will give India an opportunity to exploit the divisions within

the Taliban to win over the moderates and dilute the agenda of the
hardliners.

Fifth, India understood that its absence was working to the advantage
of countries who did not wish it to return and were using the space to
restart proxy warfare.
WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES IN ENGAGING
WITH THE TALIBAN?

Lack of Legitimacy: Taliban still doesn’t command legitimacy of the

majority population.

It is controlling them by sheer use of force which may give rise to

another civil war and bring instability in the region.
WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES IN ENGAGING WITH THE TALIBAN?

Human Rights Violations: The Taliban have excluded all non-Taliban

Pashtuns from public space as is shown by the house detention of
former President Hamid Karzai.

There are also systematic violations of the human rights of the non-
Pashtun communities which amount to crime against humanity, and
ethnic cleansing which borders on genocide.
WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES IN ENGAGING WITH THE TALIBAN?

Regressive Outlook: Taliban is a predominantly Pashtun men-only

regime which has imposed harsh restrictions on women at home. Its
orthodoxy may bring more misery for women in future and undermine
gender equality.

Mistrust on Taliban: Though there are indications of a policy shift but

still there has been a high degree of mistrust on Taliban since the
Hijack of an Air India flight to Kandahar in 1999.
WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES IN ENGAGING WITH THE TALIBAN?

External State Influence: Pakistan and China will place numerous

barriers to diminish the growing closeness of India and Taliban.

Since August 15, 2021, Afghanistan has descended from a Pax

Americana experiment to a “Pax Pakistana” ambition.
 WHAT LIES AHEAD?
First, for now, the ‘engagement’ formula seems to work for both.

Engagement by India will enhance the profile of the former

insurgents and may even be the mark of an ice-breaking event
following which other countries will follow suit.

On the other hand, it may also allow India to moderate the radical
stance of the Taliban.
WHAT LIES AHEAD?

For instance, the Taliban has followed up with two back-to-back

statements on strengthening its defense relationship with India.

It is also offering to welcome former members of the Afghan National

Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) trained in India back to their
jobs.
WHAT LIES AHEAD?

Second, India needs to frame a comprehensive long-term policy of

engagement with all the stakeholders to ensure that peace and
stability return to Afghanistan.

The people of Afghanistan and not the current regime needs to

remain at the center of its declared Afghan policy.
WHAT LIES AHEAD?

Third, the prospects for peace and stability in Afghanistan under a Pax
Pakistan lordship are not feasible as Pakistan itself is overwhelmed by
multiple internal and external challenges.

Afghanistan needs a strong UN mandate, including a UN-led political

transition process supported by a UN peacekeeping force.

India can lend its support to such endeavors which are worthy of its
character, ambition and Afghanistan’s needs.
 CONCLUSION

India should work with other regional and global players to push the
Taliban to adopt a more inclusive regime.

At the same time, it should maintain a policy of gradual bilateral

engagement rooted in realism.
DIFFERENCE IN INDIA’S APPROACH WITH REST OF
THE WORLD WITH RESPECT TO AFGHANISTAN

Engagement with Pakistan: Every country except India has a working

relationship with Pakistan, and dialogues about Afghanistan.

Engagement with Taliban: Although no country has recognised the

Taliban interim government, all the countries in both meetings are
engaging the Taliban leadership in some form.
DIFFERENCE IN INDIA’S APPROACH WITH REST OF THE WORLD WITH RESPECT TO AFGHANISTAN

India wants to underline the fact that no country wishes to

“legitimize” the Interim Taliban government.

This will be difficult given that Russia and Iran have engaged the
Taliban for some time and maintain embassies there, and in a
departure from the Delhi declaration, Russia issued a separate
statement alongside the MEA statement.
 THE APPROACH OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES
Turkmenistan sent a ministerial delegation to discuss connectivity
with Taliban, and in particular the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-
India (TAPI) pipeline.

Uzbekistan accepted a visit by Taliban Deputy PM Hanafi, and has

discussed trade, transit, connectivity, even going ahead with the
Railway project.
THE APPROACH OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES

Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have both sent high-ranking delegations to

Kabul to talk to the Taliban FM.

Tajikistan has engaged the Taliban less than the rest, and is even
believed to have hosted the National Resistance Front, and has made it
clear it will not recognise a Taliban-only government.

India has had only two official meetings with the Taliban, one
between the Indian ambassador in Doha and Taliban representatives,
and the other.
ENGAGING AFGHANISTAN VIA CENTRAL ASIAN
ROUTE
Security dilemma emanating from the Taliban-led Afghanistan has
raised Geo security and security concerns for both India and Central
Asia Republics (CAR).

Long borders with Afghanistan - CARs will also face the heat of the
Taliban as Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan share a 2,387-
kilometre-long spongy border with Afghanistan. Thousands of civilians
and even Afghan military personnel have crossed over this fragile
border into these three CARs.
THE APPROACH OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES

Terrorist groups - Furthermore, the presence of terror groups like the

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU),
Jamaat Ansarullah, and the existence of some of the radical Central
Asian ISIS fighters, who have joined the ranks of different terror groups
in Afghanistan, have increased the region’s security concerns.
THE APPROACH OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES

Growing skepticism of Pakistan owing to its support to terrorism and

curtailment of strategic, economic, and cultural interests have made
the CARs rethink their regional strategy and take a fresh look at its
growing convergence with India on geostrategic, geo-economics, and
security issues.
THE APPROACH OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES

Control China’s colonial ambitions - The CARs also want to control

China’s colonial ambitions by diversifying their energy exports.

The growing need for diversification has already forced some of the
CARs like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to hold bilateral talks with the
Taliban and restoration of their missions in Kabul.

Both these countries are dependent on a stable Afghanistan for the

continuity of their trade and energy links.
THE APPROACH OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES

Coherent approach- A coherent approach is needed from both

regions.

The CARs should keep in mind the call for immediate aid to the
Afghan people and formation of an inclusive government before
shaping their bilateral linkages with the Taliban.
 GCC and AFGHANISTAN
Fears of instability - The Gulf monarchies find themselves facing a new
and difficult dilemma vis-à-vis the Taliban regime.

They are nervous about the “Islamic Emirate” returning to power for
fears of instability in Afghanistan spilling into the Gulf and the West
Asian country once again becoming a breeding ground for terrorist
groups
GCC and AFGHANISTAN

Saudi Arabia will have to accept the Taliban- According to Khalid al

Jabar, Director of MENA Center in Washington DC, Saudi Arabia will
have “no other option” but to “accept the Taliban” a second time,
especially considering the “historical relationship” between the two
nations.
GCC and AFGHANISTAN

He further adds that Saudi Arabia’s approach will likely be a

moderating one as the new Saudi leadership has championed
“moderate Islam,” Riyadh may try to use its influence over the Taliban
to push the group in a direction further away from extremism.

At the same time, Riyadh is conducting outreach to Washington, and

backing the American line on Afghanistan.
GCC and AFGHANISTAN

Qatar - Among GCC countries, Qatar has been hosting an overseas

office for the Taliban since 2013, and Doha has been the venue for the
intra-Afghan Peace Talks between the erstwhile Afghan Government
and the Taliban.

Qatar’s ties with the Taliban have also caused strains in ties with other
Arab Countries.
GCC and AFGHANISTAN

Points to notice - Afghan President Ashraf Ghani who fled Afghanistan

was not allowed to land in Tajikistan and has been given exile in the
UAE.

Also, the United Arab Emirates has agreed to host 5000 Afghan
nationals evacuated from Afghanistan on their way to third countries.
GCC and AFGHANISTAN

Importance of GCC - The role of GCC countries and organizations like

OIC will be crucial in Afghanistan apart from Beijing, Moscow and
Tehran.

Thus, New Delhi needs to find synergies with Middle Eastern

countries, especially Iran and Qatar, which have strong links with the
Taliban.
 CONCLUSION
As suggested by C. Rajamohan, strategic rewards in Afghanistan are as
large as risks.

India is realistic enough to know that it doesn't have power to

unilaterally define Afghanistan’s future.

But India needs to develop some leverage and influence outcomes in

Afghanistan through proactive diplomacy and some purposeful action
on the ground.
CONCLUSION

According to Shashank Joshi, India is a small fish in the water, but its
clout is growing.

It now needs to move beyond the binary of economic cooperation and

military engagement and evolve a comprehensive policy which
involves all dimensions of power.

Afghanistan is a tough country. Only those who are willing to fight on

multiple fronts will be able to preserve their leverage.
CENTRAL ASIA
 INTRODUCTION
Halford John Mackinder in his article “The Geographical Pivot of
History” gave the “Heartland theory.”

For Mackinder, the Heartland lies at the center of the world island,
stretching from Volga to the Yangtze and from Himalayas to the Arctic.
○ According to Heartland Theory, one who rules Eurasia
commands the Heartland; while one who rules the Heartland
commands the World Island.
INTRODUCTION

Location: Central Asia is located at the center of Eurasia.

It has always been a place of great games. It has been termed as the
pivot of world politics.

It has been traditionally under the influence of Russia since the Cold
War era.
INTRODUCTION

Central Asia, located in the heart of Eurasia, forms a part of India’s

extended neighborhood.

Its geographical proximity, strategic location, and historical linkages

make it an important partner for India.

However, India-Central Asia relations stagnated in the 20th century,

due to the Anglo-Russian rivalry in the “Great Game” and in the 21st
century, the lack of direct access has limited the relations of India-
central Asian nations.
INTRODUCTION

Global chessboard: Central Asia has also been called “the global
chessboard.”

In recent times, the “New Great Game” in Central Asia is characterized

by fierce competition between various states all aiming to increase
their influence, hegemony and power over the region.
○
In this ‘game’, the important players are Russia, the US, European
Union, China, Turkey, Iran and India.
 IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

GEO-ECONOMIC

Mineral resources: Central Asian countries have huge mineral

resources such as petroleum, natural gas, antimony, aluminum, gold,
silver, coal and uranium which can help ensure energy security for
India.
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

For example,
Kazakhstan has the largest uranium reserves in the world.
Uzbekistan, along with Kyrgyzstan, is a significant regional producer of
gold.
Apart from oil deposits, Tajikistan has huge hydropower capacity.
Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest gas reserves.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are both on the Caspian coastline,
promising to open the door to other Caspian states that are rich in oil.
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

Connectivity: Central Asia lies in the middle of the Eurasian Continent

and can help India achieve connectivity to Europe.

This region is important for India to develop its transit and transport
potential through regional and international transport corridors such as
the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

Keeping the connectivity objective in mind, India has joined the

Ashgabat Agreement in February 2018 and the TIR Convention in 2017

With this, India is now a part of the single transport transit corridor
system that would enhance the prospects of enlarging both the
operational and practical scope of Chabahar and fast-tracking
implementation of the INSTC.
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

Trade and investment potential: Central Asia's economic growth,

especially Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, has sparked a
construction boom and sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals and
tourism have been expanding rapidly.

India has expertise in these fields, and deeper collaboration would

give trade ties with these countries a new impetus. The area also has a
strong demand for Indian pharmaceutical products.
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

Energy Security: The significant achievement in the energy sector has

been civil nuclear cooperation.

In 2008, Kazakhstan supported India in obtaining India specific

exemption to allow civil nuclear cooperation with the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG) countries.
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

In 2015, with their earlier deal expired, India and Kazakhstan signed a
new agreement for the purchase of 5000 tonnes of Kazakh Uranium
until the end of 2019.

Currently, both sides are negotiating a third agreement, as part of

which Kazakhstan is planning to increase its supplies to India to 7500-
10000 tonnes.

India also signed a uranium supply agreement with Uzbekistan.

IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

GEO-STRATEGIC
P. S. Raghavan in his article in The Hindu titled, ’India’s pivot to
Eurasia’ has highlighted the importance of Central Asia for India in
context of India’s troubled relations with neighbors.

He has invoked Kautilyan wisdom in Mandal siddhanta. In his words,

“When you have complicated ties with neighbors, it makes sense to
strengthen ties with your neighbors’ neighbors.”
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

Strategic position: Geographically, Central Asia acts as a bridge

between various regions of Asia and between Europe and Asia.

New trade routes between India and Central Asia have been opened,
bypassing Pakistan, with the Chabahar Agreement.

It has been reported that the only foreign military airbase in India,
controlled by the IAF and the Tajik Air Force, is in Farkhor (Tajikistan).
IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA

Security: Central Asian Republics face significant challenges

‘Golden Crescent' illicit drug trade in opium cultivation (Iran-Pak-

Afghan), and are also victims of the illicit weapons trade.

Central Asian instability can spill over to Kashmir.

Further, religious extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism continue

to pose threats to regional stability.
 HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

History of engagement: India and Central Asia share a long history of

engagement since the third century B.C.

The Kushan Empire was expanded across the modern Central Asia
region.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

Ancient silk-road: Since ancient times, India and Central Asia have
been connected through the Silk route which has facilitated exchange
of ideas, thoughts and philosophy.

Spices, cotton, silk etc. were the main traded commodities which
enhanced economic integration between these regions.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

Islam and Sufism: Origin of Mughals can be traced back to Central Asia
(Babur came from the valley of Fergana) and many prominent
personalities like Al Biruni , Amir Khusro and Sufi saints played vital
roles in spreading Islamic culture in India.

Following India’s independence, the country’s foreign policy largely

focused on its immediate neighborhood, the major powers in the
international system and solidarity with other Afro-Asian colonies.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

This, however, did not extend to Soviet Central Asia, due to India’s
robust diplomatic, defense and economic partnership with the Soviet
Union, which was routed via Moscow.

Prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, India established its only
Central Asian consulate in Tashkent in 1987.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

After the breakup of the Soviet Union and the formation of the
independent republics in Central Asia, India reset its ties with the
strategically crucial region.

India provided financial aid to the region and established diplomatic

relations.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

New Delhi signed the Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPA) in 2012

with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to stimulate defense
cooperation and deepen trade relations.

The shared interests were also articulated through a ‘Look North

Policy’ that emphasized shared concerns along with a desire to
‘promote stability and cooperation without causing harm to any third
country.’
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

In 2012, India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy aimed at furthering

India’s political, economic, historical and cultural connections with the
region.

However, India’s efforts were stonewalled by Pakistan’s lack of

willingness to allow India passage through its territory.

China took advantage of the situation and unveiled the much hyped
BRI in Kazakhstan.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

Hence, India’s relation with the region developed slowly despite

enjoying several advantages.
India could not maintain its momentum in relations due to:
■ Lack of direct access.
■ Rising Chinese access.
■ Shifting of focus towards Indo-Pacific .
■ Shifting of focus towards Indo-Pacific .
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

In recent times, the growing geostrategic and security concerns

regarding the BRI’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and its violation
of India’s sovereignty forced New Delhi to fix its strategy.

Soon after assuming office, Prime Minister Modi visited all the Central
Asian countries in July 2015.

Eventually, Central Asia became the link that placed Eurasia in New
Delhi’s zone of interest.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

C Raja Mohan has described the present state of relations between

India and Central Asia as “high octane diplomacy.”
 STRENGTHENING CONNECTIVITY
MoUs with Iran: India signed MoUs with Iran in 2015 to develop the
Chabahar port in the Sistan-Baluchistan province that was in the
doldrums from 2003.

Most of the Central Asian leaders view India’s Chabahar port as an

opportunity to diversify their export markets and control China’s
ambitions.

China’s assertive approach led to rising discontentment on the ill-

treatment of their ethnic brethren in neighboring Xinjiang.
STRENGTHENING CONNECTIVITY

INSTC and TAPI: India has taken an active role in strengthening the
connectivity with Central Asia through the International North South
Transport Corridor Project (INSTC) as well as in the TAPI energy
corridor project.

SCO: India gained permanent membership in SCO in 2017. Through

SCO, Central Asian countries expect India to counteract increasing
influence of China and Russia in the region.
 CHALLENGES

Landlocked region: Central Asia is landlocked, which has hindered the

relationship between India and Central Asia.

Weak connectivity has also led to India and Central Asia's below-par
trade.
CHALLENGES

Xinjiang's security situation, unresolved border disputes with China,

and protracted negotiations forced India to pursue alternate routes to
reach the CARs.

The unpredictable situation in Afghanistan and the geo-strategic

importance of Pakistan in the region have robbed India of the benefits
of Central Asian ties.
CHALLENGES

Chinese presence: The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative

involves Central Asia.

In addition, the danger posed by the spillover of Islamic radicalization

to the Uighurs in Xinjiang province has led China to become well
entrenched in Central Asian security affairs, thus indirectly affecting
India's interests.
CHALLENGES

China has been expanding its regional presence through SCO and the
5+1 format launched in 2020 to further its clout.

However, its advances are already causing concerns of ‘debt-trap

diplomacy’ given the economic situation of Central Asian countries.
CHALLENGES

Turkmenistan owes at least US$ 8 billion in loans to China while the

latter holds roughly 50 percent of Tajikistan’s US$ 2.8 billion foreign
debt.

Kyrgyzstan has turned to China for debt relief to deal with the
economic impact of the pandemic.
CHALLENGES

Radicalism and extremism: The increasing Islamic radicalization has

become a major security concern for the governments of the region.

Central Asian republics are prone to forces such as Al Qaeda, the

Islamic State, the Taliban, the IUM, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and so on.

Following the start of Syria’s civil war and the rise of the Islamic State
(IS), estimates suggest that several thousands of Central Asians,
ranging from 2000 to upwards of 4000, migrated to join the terrorist
groups.
CHALLENGES

Domestic problems, such as:

"Youth Bulge ", combined with restricted economic opportunities;

Extreme and worsening corruption.
Drug trafficking.
Autocratic succession without strong government or party
institutions, etc.
CHALLENGES

Close partners: India sees the Central Asian Republic (CARs) as its
“close political partners” in its “extended neighborhood” and
cultivating closer economic, strategic, cultural and defense ties with
them are a key element of its foreign policy.

India is a marginal player currently: But, at present, India is only a

marginal player in Central Asia. Countries like Russia, China and the US
have much greater presence and consequently leverage in the region.
CHALLENGES

Poor economic relations: India’s current trade figure of about USD 100
billion with the SCO members is also asymmetric – about 90 billion is
with China, 8 billion with Russia and 1.5 billion with the Central Asia
states of which 1 billion is with Kazakhstan.

Energy Security: the lack of connectivity with any planned routes

facing serious financial, political, and security constraints between
India and the region has frustrated oil and gas diplomacy.
CHALLENGES

For instance, the long-delayed TAPI pipeline was first proposed in the
mid-1990s and all four actors officially signed an intergovernmental
agreement in 2010.

Since then, progress has been stalled due to the instability in

Afghanistan and the lack of trust between India-Pakistan.
CHALLENGES

Act east policy: Lastly, India’s "Act East" policy has resulted in
concentrating its economic and diplomatic resources in Southeast and
East Asia.

Dilemma: Further, the dilemma between maritime and continental

policy in the Indian foreign policy paradigm has led to loss of
momentum in India -Central Asia relations.
 EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE
ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA
LOOK NORTH POLICY
In the domain of Indian foreign policy, Central Asia was focused upon
under the narrative framework of the ‘Look North’ policy.
However, due to the economic slowdown in India and global power
competition in Central Asia, India could not maintain momentum.
It has discouraged India from playing a major role in the region for a
larger part of the last 3 decades.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

Changing geopolitics: This renewed focus on the region can be

attributed to the changing geopolitics of the region, particularly the
formation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the external security
threats to the region.

The convergence of China’s BRI projects in the region with India’s

unrealized economic interests has prompted India to adopt a more
proactive approach and look at new avenues for economic
cooperation.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

'Connect Central Asia' policy: India's 'Connect Central Asia' Policy is a

broad-based approach, including political, security, economic and
cultural connections.

It covers an entire gamut of a multi-model approach to strengthen

politico-economic, security, and cultural ties between the two.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

The key elements of this policy cover many important issue areas,
including political as well as economic cooperation, strategic
cooperation, regional connectivity, cooperation in regional groupings.

The Connect Central Asia Policy is based on 4Cs: Commerce,

Connectivity, Consular and Community.

The policy included a focus on strategic and security cooperation,

including close consultations on Afghanistan, energy and other
natural resources, and connectivity.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

India-Central Asia Dialogue: During the second India-Central Asia

Dialogue, India provided US$ 1 billion Line of Credit for priority
developmental projects in fields such as connectivity, energy, IT,
healthcare, agriculture etc. in Central Asia.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

Connectivity: To facilitate transport of goods between India and

Central Asia via Iran, India acceded to the Customs Convention on
International Transport of Goods under cover of TIR Carnets in 2017
and joined the Ashgabat Agreement which includes Iran, Oman,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in 2018.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

Uzbekistan has also joined INSTC. Since its inception in 2000, the
project has witnessed slow growth due to a combination of factors
including low trade volumes, incomplete infrastructure, and
sanctions.

Trilateral Working Group Meeting: India, Iran, and Uzbekistan

conducted the Trilateral Working Group Meeting on the joint use of
Chabahar Port on 14 December 2020.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

Recently, stressing on the need for enhanced connectivity, External

Affairs Minister Jaishankar during his visit to Central Asia proposed
the inclusion of strategic Chabahar Port in Iran in the North-South
Transport Corridor.
EFFORTS BY INDIA TO ENHANCE ENGAGEMENT IN THE CENTRAL ASIA

Developmental Partnership under High Impact Community

Development Projects (HICDP): Under these projects, India provides
grant assistance for furthering socio-economic development.

India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC): It was launched in

February 2020 and comprises the Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and chambers of commerce from the 5
central Asian countries.
Its aim is to collaborate and provide an industry view to the
governments of the six countries.
 MULTILATERAL ENGAGEMENT
Platforms for multilateral cooperation: Through platforms for
multilateral cooperation with both the Central Asian states and other
external powers.
On the economic front, India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU),
which includes the Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan, set up a Joint Study Group to explore the possibility of a
Free Trade Agreement in 2015.
While the group submitted its feasibility report in 2017, formal
negotiations have not yet started.
MULTILATERAL ENGAGEMENT

Bala Venkatesh Varma, the Indian Ambassador to Russia, said that

“The creation of a free trade zone between India and EAEU would
boost trade turnover to US$15 billion, about a 25 percent immediate
increase. India and Russia have previously discussed ways of doubling
trade to US$30 billion by 2025.”
MULTILATERAL ENGAGEMENT

SCO: Twelve years after it became an observer, India joined the

Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member in 2017.
The change of status from observer to a full member marks an
important shift in India’s approach to the region as a whole.
MULTILATERAL ENGAGEMENT

Chance to work with other leaders: This platform is not only beneficial
for India to remain connected with Central Asia, but also has the
potential for India to work collectively with other leading powers in
the region in order to address economic and security issues that have
potentially detrimental consequences for the world.
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP

Tajikistan: Out of the 5 central Asian countries, Tajikistan functions as

India’s bridgehead in the region.

India provided material and logistics assistance to the anti-Taliban

Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, routed through Tajikistan.
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP
Subsequently, Tajikistan also became recipient of long-term Indian
military training as well as the location of what could have been India’s
first overseas military base.

In 2002, India and Tajikistan signed a bilateral defense agreement, as

part of which India refurbished Ayni airbase.
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP
Military cooperation: India’s military cooperation with other nations
in the region has been significant, but far more limited.

Tashkent has been an arms supplier, with India acquiring six Ilyushin-
78 in-flight refueling aircraft from Uzbekistan.
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP

In all, India’s military cooperation with the region has mostly been
limited to military education and training, with officers from the
region having attended courses at India’s military institutions,
infrastructure assistance to military training institutions in the region,
as well as the establishment of field hospitals.
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP

Modi’s visit in 2015: After PM Modi’s visit in 2015, India has enhanced
the institutional basis for its defense cooperation with the region.

Notably, during Prime Minister Modi’s visits in 2015, India signed

MOUs and agreements related to defense and military technical
cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan.
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP

Kyrgyzstan: Reflecting the growing engagement, India and Kyrgyzstan

agreed to hold their bilateral military exercise, Khanjar, annually.

India also held its first joint army exercise with Kazakhstan, Prabal
Dostyk in 2016.

Held annually thereafter, this was renamed as the KAZIND in 2018.

INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY PARTNERSHIP

Opportunity: However, India’s membership of the SCO provides an

opportunity for India to strengthen its security and defense
relationship with the Central Asian countries.

Further, the crisis in Afghanistan necessitates both India and Central

Asian Republics to ramp up their defense capabilities and
cooperation.
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA
RELATIONSHIP
Importance of Afghanistan: New Delhi's approach to the Central Asia
region has been shaped, in part, by its interests in Afghanistan.

Given the geographical location of the CARs especially Tajikistan,

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; and the convergence of objectives vis-
à-vis Afghanistan, greater engagement with these countries is crucial
to India's Afghanistan policy.
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONSHIP

Afghanistan can be seen both as an enabler for India's objectives vis-

a-vis Central Asia as well as an avenue for cooperation between India
and the CARs.

Thus, despite the limitations, it is critical for New Delhi to continue

with its policy of engaging with both Afghanistan and the CARs.
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONSHIP

According to Harsh V. Pant, the dramatic developments in Afghanistan

have catalyzed new geostrategic and geo-economic concerns for the
region.

The evolving situation has also thrown up renewed challenges for

India’s regional and bilateral ties with Central Asia and the Caucasus,
prompting India to recalibrate its rules of engagement with the region.
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONSHIP

Similar concerns: Besides their location, India and the CARs also share
a number of similar concerns vis-à-vis Afghanistan.

In fact, one of the principal goals of the 'Connect Central Asia' policy
has been strengthening strategic and security cooperation with the
CARs, which includes close consultations on the Afghan question
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONSHIP

Consequences of an unstable Afghanistan: An unstable Afghanistan

that could become a haven for radical extremists and terror groups is
an overriding concern.
India fears that terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Jaish-e-
Mohammed could use Afghanistan as a base to train and operate
against India.
India is also concerned about the prospects of the Afghan conflict
spilling over into Central Asia, which can have an impact on its
security environment.
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONSHIP

Opium cultivation and drug smuggling: The Central Asian Republics

see opium cultivation and drug smuggling from Afghanistan as equally
serious threats.

High levels of drug addiction, human trafficking and powerful criminal

networks are some of the other serious associated challenges to the
region.
AFGHANISTAN FACTOR IN INDIA CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONSHIP

Working groups on counterterrorism: India has joint working groups

on counterterrorism with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan,
which have been meeting regularly.

Although such defense cooperation may not improve the security

situation in Afghanistan, it can help in developing the capacity of the
Central Asian states to withstand any spillover from Afghanistan.
 WAY FORWARD

Developmental and humanitarian aid: Beyond strategic and economic

cooperation, India must increase its developmental and humanitarian
aid to the region and promote closer people-to-people ties through
education, knowledge transfer, medicine and health, culture, cuisine
and tourism.

Multilateral organizations like SCO, EAEU, and CICA can serve as

platforms for sustained engagement and regular exchange of ideas.
WAY FORWARD

The SCO is a crucial grouping that provides India a strategic

convergence with Central Asian countries on addressing new security
challenges, enhancing infrastructural development projects and
creating a network of regional oil and gas pipelines for the larger
benefit of the Central and South Asian region.

It bears high potential to give India a stake in the Eurasian integration

process.
WAY FORWARD

Need of coordination despite challenges: Although several challenges

such as China’s aggressive posture in the region and the unholy nexus
of Pakistan and China looms large over its success, a calibrated
coordination with the stakeholders will enable New Delhi to
accentuate its own role not only in the Eurasian region but also in
South Asia.
WAY FORWARD

Long way to go for India: In a region where Russia and China remain
the key players, India has a long way to go before it can be recognized
as a consequential actor in Central Asia.

The proposals and ideas discussed in the 2020 virtual summits possess
the potential to form the bedrock of a sustained, balanced, long-term
strategy which New Delhi will have to capitalize on to achieve its
policy goals in the region.
 CONCLUSION
According to Rhea Menon and Sharanya Rajiv, geography has placed
Central Asia at the nexus of crucial political and economic
transformations for centuries.

With the actualization of China’s BRI, India’s Connect Central Asia

policy, and the EU’s new Central Asia strategy, the 21st century could
possibly be the most decisive period for the region.
WAY FORWARD

Stemming from its historic cultural and economic bonds, India is now
well placed to take a more active role in the development of this
region.

India’s growing global visibility and key contributions to multilateral

forums like the SCO have catapulted India from an observer into a
critical stakeholder in the region.
 SCO AND INDIA
The SCO grew out of the Shanghai Five grouping — of Russia, China,
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — which was set up in 1996 to
resolve boundary disputes between China and each of the four other
members.

It admitted Uzbekistan in 2001, re-christened itself the Shanghai

Cooperation Organisation and broadened its agenda to include
political, economic and security cooperation.
SCO AND INDIA

It admitted India and Pakistan as full members in 2017.

The admission of India and Pakistan has expanded the geographical,

demographic and economic profile of the SCO, which now has about
half the world’s population and a quarter of its GDP.

Its boundary extends southwards to the Indian Ocean.

SCO AND INDIA

Structure of SCO
The SCO has two main executive organs: the SCO secretariat and SCO
Regional Anti-terrorist structure (RATS)

The head of the SCO secretariat is nominated by the council of Head

of States.
SCO AND INDIA

The SCO Secretariat coordinates the activity of the SCO and provides
informational, analytical, legal, organisational and technical support.

SCO Regional Anti-terrorist structure (RATS) is responsible for the

implementation of SCO counter terrorism strategies.
SCO AND INDIA

India’s rationale behind joining SCO

The SCO’s relevance for India lies in geography, economics and
geopolitics.
Its members occupy a huge landmass adjacent to India’s extended
neighbourhood, where India has important economic and security
interests.
According to P. S. Raghvan, with Pakistan joining the Organisation, the
logic of India’s membership and playing a more assertive role in the
region, became stronger.
SCO AND INDIA

Since the break-up of the Soviet Union, the optimal development of

India’s relations with Central Asian countries has been constrained by
lack of overland access through Pakistan and Afghanistan/Iran,
because of political and/or security reasons.

With new multimodal transport corridors now envisaged through

SCO’s Multilateral Connectivity Initiative, there are again prospects of
invigorating trade and investment links with this region.
SCO AND INDIA

For a long time India was seen as a “mute spectator” and “fence sitter”
in terms of its foreign policy towards Western and Central Asia.

SCO can increase India’s profile in Eurasia and enhance its credibility
as a balancer to China.
SCO AND INDIA

It enables India, as an integral part of the Eurasian security grouping,

to neutralise centrifugal forces arising from religious extremism and
terrorism in the region.

It helps India in managing much more effectively the negative impact

of a Talibanised Afghanistan, especially in the post-USA exit scenario.
SCO AND INDIA

SCO can provide a useful platform for negotiations between New

Delhi and Islamabad/Rawalpindi.

However, there are also apprehensions that SCO deliberations could

get bogged down by India-Pakistan squabbles.

Russia and China have suggested that harmonious cooperation in the

SCO may pave the way for an India-Pakistan rapprochement, recalling
that SCO membership had facilitated resolution of China’s boundary
disputes with Russia and Central Asian countries.
SCO AND INDIA

However, according to P.S. Raghvan, the circumstances are not

comparable.

China made substantial concessions to settle its boundary disputes

with Russia and Central Asia, in pursuit of larger strategic and
economic objectives in the region.

India-Pakistan differences extend well beyond a boundary dispute,

flow from different historical circumstances and are located in a
different geopolitical environment.
SCO AND INDIA

Challenges

Increasing Chinese dominance - For India — besides that of security

and defence cooperation with Pakistan — may come from increasing
Chinese dominance of the SCO.

This could happen if Russia-U.S. relations worsen further, leading

Russia to an even greater dependence on Chinese political and
economic support.
SCO AND INDIA

Retreat of the US - Further, the retreat of the US and more assertive

role played by China and Russia in the region could dramatically
change the balance of forces in the Asia-Pacific in favour of China.

This would transform Eurasian dynamics, with an inevitable impact on

SCO.
SCO AND INDIA

Rise of CSTO - Further, Russia is also not very keen to let China
enhance its profile in its periphery.

While military confidence building measures have grown under the

SCO banner, Russia had its own security organisation for the region,
called the Central Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
SCO AND INDIA

Moscow also appears reluctant to back Chinese proposals to promote

trade integration under the SCO banner; it prefers the Eurasian
Economic Union (EAEU) under its own leadership.

China is not a member of either CSTO or EAEU.

This is one reason for the weakness of SCO regionalism.

 INDIA IRAN RELATIONS
History of India-Iran relations
The relations between India and Iran go back to the ancient
civilizations of the Indus valley and Mesopotamia.

There was trade between the coast of southern Iran and India through
the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

Some Indus seals have been excavated at Kish, Susa, and Ur in Iran.
INDIA IRAN RELATIONS

The Harappan people are believed to have imported silver, copper,

turquoise, and lapis lazuli from Persia and Afghanistan.

Iran supplied silver, gold, lead, zinc, and turquoise to ancient India.

Ivory was imported from India.

INDIA IRAN RELATIONS

Iran is an important nation in India’s neighborhood and in fact, the

two countries shared a border until India’s partition and
independence in 1947.

The “Tehran Declaration” signed during former Prime Minister Atal

Bihari Vajpayee’s visit to Iran affirmed the shared vision of the two
countries for an “equitable, pluralistic and co-operative international
order”.
 BILATERAL RELATIONS
The two countries have in place several bilateral consultative
mechanisms at various levels whose meetings take place regularly.

In addition, the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) (now

Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses) of India
and the Institute of Political and International Studies (IPIS) of Iran
hold the regular round tables to exchange views and ideas on bilateral
and multilateral issues.
BILATERAL RELATIONS

Iran frequently objected to Pakistan’s attempts to draft anti-India

resolutions at international organizations such as the OIC
(Organisation of Islamic Republic) and the Human Rights Commission.

India welcomed Iran’s inclusion as an observer state in the SAARC

regional organization.
 ECONOMIC RELATIONS
India-Iran economic and commercial ties have traditionally been
buoyed by the Indian import of Iranian crude oil.

India’s exports to Iran include petroleum products, rice, machinery &

instruments, manufacturers of metals, primary and semi-finished iron
& steel, drugs/pharmaceuticals & fine chemicals, processed minerals,
manmade yarn & fabrics, tea, organic/inorganic/agro chemicals,
rubber manufactured products, etc
ECONOMIC RELATIONS

India and Iran have set up several projects such as:

After engaging in negotiations for several years, the Indian Government
finally joined the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India
(TAPI) gas pipeline over the Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline (IPI) and the
Myanmar–Bangladesh–India pipeline (MBI).
South Pars gas field and LNG project,
Chabahar container terminal project and Chabahar-Zaranj railway
project, etc.
ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Both countries have set up joint ventures such as the Madras Fertilizer
Company and the Chennai Refinery. Indian companies such as ESSAR,
OVL, etc. have a presence in Iran.

India is also a member of the International North-South Corridor

project.

The two countries have finalized a Bilateral Investment Promotion &

Protection Agreement (BIPPA) and a Double Taxation Avoidance
Agreement (DTAA).
 STRATEGIC RELATIONS
For India, the location of Iran is strategic and crucial due to its
geographical positioning between the Persian Gulf and the Caspian
Sea.

Iran is important to India as it provides an alternate route of

connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, in the wake
of hindrances by Pakistan in using land routes.
STRATEGIC RELATIONS

Iran has one of the largest deposits of crude oil and natural gas in the
world, which India can tap for meeting its energy needs.

On the other hand, for Iran, the strategic location of India is crucial as
it aids its “Asia-oriented” foreign policy.
STRATEGIC RELATIONS

India is the largest populous country and a major economy with a

huge demographic dividend.

It gives Iran access to the 5th largest economy to invest in and

enhance trade relations with.
 ISSUES IN INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS
The U.S. sanctions (CAATSA) led to the stoppage of oil imports from
Iran in 2019. This was after the revocation of the Iran nuclear deal.

The act hurt India’s energy security.

India’s close relations with Israel and Iran’s ties with China are also
bones of contention in the bilateral relations.
ISSUES IN INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS

The geopolitical stand of Iran in Yemen against Saudi Arabia and UAE,
who are close partners of India, also tends to cause discomfort in the
relations.

Iran’s tough statement on the Indian government’s abrogation of

Article 370 of the Indian Constitution giving special status to Kashmir
is another cause of tension.
ISSUES IN INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS

Iran’s previous regime had on a couple of occasions made statements

instigating the Muslims of Kashmir against the governance which was
reprimanded by India severely.

The termination of Indian participation in the Chabahar Railway

Project and Farzad B gas field was another sour phase.
 RESTRUCTURING INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS
Afghanistan is a common ground where the countries can forge a
common and effective policy of engagement.

Iran never withdrew its consulate from Kabul after the Taliban took
the governance and now since India has opened up communication
with the regime, the relations of Iran with the Taliban can be helpful
for India as well.
ISSUES IN INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS

India has had good and cordial relations with the gulf countries.

But the gulf countries and Iran have a history of sour relations, but the
recent diplomatic talks between Iran and a few gulf countries like UAE
and Qatar open up the scene for India to have a deeper and wider
reach in West Asia.
ISSUES IN INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS

The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), an

ambitious project launched at the start of this century, aims to connect
India, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe through
multi-modal transport, reducing the transit time of goods drastically.
ISSUES IN INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS

Although some part of it has been operationalized, again, due to

sanctions on Iran, its full potential has not been realized.

India and Iran could well play a major part in giving INSTC the
required boost to reap the benefits of resultant trade.
 WAY FORWARD

India and Iran have a lot to achieve in the energy sector and other
areas of convergence should be explored to strengthen the bilateral
ties.
INDIA AND ISRAEL RELATIONS
 INTRODUCTION
India and Israel relations have been described by Benjamin Netanyahu
as “marriage made in heaven and implemented here on earth”.
Diplomatic ties between India and Israel completed 29 years in 2021.
INTRODUCTION

Though India officially recognized Israel in 1950, the two countries

established full diplomatic ties only on January 29, 1992.

In recent years, relations have seen rapid growth across a broad

spectrum of areas and the future vision of the cooperation is of a
strong hi-tech partnership as befits two knowledge economies.
INTRODUCTION

The evolving timeline of India Israel relations has been described in

the following stages.

During colonial period and initial years of independence

Cold-war period
Post-cold war period
After 2014 to present times
DURING COLONIAL PERIOD AND INITIAL YEARS
OF INDEPENDENCE
In this period the relations were shaped by India’s own freedom
struggle.

In the words of Gandhi ‘Palestine belongs to Arab like England to

English & France to French’.
DURING COLONIAL PERIOD AND INITIAL YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

Nehru depicted the Palestine issue as analogous to the communal

troubles of the Indian subcontinent.

Led by Gandhi, the Indian nationalists came to view Jewish aspirations

for a national home in Palestine, through an anti-imperialist and anti-
colonial prism.
DURING COLONIAL PERIOD AND INITIAL YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

The Zionists were seen in the Indian perspective as European people.

The Zionist were relying on imperialist power to set up an exclusivist,

theocratic state in West Asia at the expense of Palestinian Arabs.

Just as the British were employing the divide and rule tactics between
Hindus and Muslims to perpetuate their domination, the nationalists
perceived the English in Palestine pitting “Jewish religious nationalism
against Arab nationalism.”
DURING COLONIAL PERIOD AND INITIAL YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

The Early phase of India-Israel relations was impacted by Indian

national leader’s opposition to exclusivist, theocratic, religion-based
idea of nation.

India had witnessed the horror of partition which was the brainchild of
religion-based idea of nation.

India voted against UN General Assembly Resolution 181 which

adopted plans to divide the British mandate into Palestine and Israel
and supported the cause of Palestine.
DURING COLONIAL PERIOD AND INITIAL YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

Finally India recognized Israel in 1950 itself.

Jawaharlal Nehru stated, “We would have recognized Israel long ago,
because Israel is a fact. We refrained because of our desire not to
offend the sentiments of our friends in the Arab countries."
 COLD-WAR PERIOD POST COLD WAR PERIOD
(tilt was towards the Arab cause i.e. (tilt was towards Israel)
Palestine)
● The Cold War period was dominated AFTER COLD WAR-
by Nehruvian consensus. He had ● India established diplomatic relations
expressed solidarity only with in 1992 due to change in geopolitics
Palestine. He opposed the creation of post-cold war and LPG reforms.
Israel. ● India depended heavily on the Soviet
● Due to India’s support for Palestine, Union for arms support and its
India was called as ‘more Arab than disintegration posed serious questions
Arabs’ to the Indian administration.
● India's foreign policy goals and Consequently, it turned towards Israel,
alliances also proved problematic to which had developed a competitive
formal relations with Israel. advantage in the armaments industry.
 COLD-WAR PERIOD POST COLD WAR PERIOD
(tilt was towards the Arab cause i.e. (tilt was towards Israel)
Palestine)
● In 1974, India became the first non- ● Israel signed peace agreements with
Arab state to recognize the pro- Egypt and Jordan and participated in
Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) various bilateral peace negotiations
as the sole and legitimate with Palestine
representative of the Palestinian
people.
 COLD-WAR PERIOD POST COLD WAR PERIOD
(tilt was towards the Arab cause i.e. (tilt was towards Israel)
Palestine)
● In 1988, India became one of the first ● Coupled with this were the deep
countries to recognize the Palestinian differences between Arab countries
State. and India’s failure in acquiring resolute
● Further India’s leadership in NAM Arab support in the Kashmir cause.
created a rift between India-Israel ● The prospect of a deeper Indian-Israeli
relations. partnership no longer looked like a
● India also wanted to counter high-risk endeavor.
Pakistan's influence with the Arab
world by showing solidarity with
Palestine.
● Due to the above mentioned reasons,
India kept its relationship with Israel
‘behind the curtains’ during the cold
war.
 AFTER 2014
Dehyphenation has been the underlying principle in India-Israel
relations in the Modi era.

Upgraded to a strategic level in 2017, Prime Minister Modi undertook

an historic first ever visit by an Indian PM to Israel during which the
relationship was upgraded to a strategic level and seven
Agreements/MoUs were signed in the fields of R&D innovation, water,
agriculture and space.
AFTER 2014

Israel PM visit to India in 2018, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin

Netanyahu, made a visit to India during which four G2G agreements
on cyber security, oil & gas cooperation, film co-production and air
transport were signed, along with five other semi-government
agreements.
AFTER 2014

DEHYPHENATION
Endorsing an independent policy towards these two rivals is called
the de-hyphenation in India’s foreign policy.
It means India’s relationship with Israel would stand on its own merits,
independent and separate from India’s relationship with the
Palestinians.
The de-hyphenation is actually a careful balancing act, with India
shifting from one side to another as the situation demands.
AFTER 2014

Need
As India moves towards becoming a larger player in global
politics and economics, these pre-existing policies are increasingly in
need of review, and de-hyphenating Israel and Palestine was a
process long past its due date.
 CHANGING DYNAMICS IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE
POLICY UNDER PRESENT GOVERNMENT

India’s policy on the longest running conflict in the world has gone
from being unequivocally pro-Palestine for the first four decades, to a
tense balancing act with its three-decade-old friendly ties with Israel.
CHANGING DYNAMICS IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE POLICY UNDER PRESENT GOVERNMENT

In favour of Palestine In Favour of Israel

● 2017 UNESCO- For instance, even as ● Pro-Israel policy- In recent years, India’s
it abstained at UNESCO in December position has also been perceived as
2017, India voted in favour of a pro-Israel.
resolution in the General Assembly
opposing the Trump administration’s
recognition of Jerusalem as the
Israeli capital.
CHANGING DYNAMICS IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE POLICY UNDER PRESENT GOVERNMENT

In favour of Palestine In Favour of Israel

● UNHRC’s 46th session in Geneva- At ● Stabilising role in West Asia- On the
the UNHRC’s 46th session in Geneva sidelines of the COP26 summit in
earlier this year, India voted against Glasgow, the Prime Minister of
Israel in three resolutions – one on Palestine called for India’s support to
the right of self-determination of the play a stabilising role in West Asia by
Palestinian people, a second on maintaining cooperation with all
Israeli settlement policy, and a third related parties. This statement is
on the human rights situation in the significant in the context of India’s
Golan Heights. External Affairs Minister visit to Israel,
whereby he excluded a trip to the
Palestinian territory.
CHANGING DYNAMICS IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE POLICY UNDER PRESENT GOVERNMENT

In favour of Palestine In Favour of Israel

● It abstained on a fourth, which asked ● Diplomatic visit in 2017- In 2017, in an
for an UNHRC report on the human unprecedented move, India’s PM
right situation in Palestine, including visited only Israel and not Palestine.
East Jerusalem. ● Breaking past trends- In recent years,
● Human rights abuses in Palestinian India has broken the tradition of
territory- The International Criminal supporting Palestine at the UN.
Court claimed jurisdiction to ● In 2019, India voted in favour of Israel
investigate human rights abuses in at the ECOSOC (Economic and Social
Palestinian territory including West Council) to deny observer status to a
Bank and Gaza and named both Palestinian organisation named
Israeli security forces and Hamas as Shahed.
perpetrators.
CHANGING DYNAMICS IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE POLICY UNDER PRESENT GOVERNMENT

In favour of Palestine In Favour of Israel

● Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted ● Further, India abstained during the
India, which does not recognise the voting on a resolution calling for
ICC, to take a stand against it on the investigation into Israeli actions in the
issue, and was surprised when it was Gaza Strip at the Human Rights Council.
not forthcoming.
 IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A
CONUNDRUM

Israeli newspaper Haaretz mentioned that “India wants an affair when

it comes to Israel, not a serious relationship.”

It argued that India’s voting record at the UN “shows an embrace of

the Palestinian narrative”.
IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A CONUNDRUM

YES NO
● Though India established diplomatic ● In International relations discourse,
ties with Israel in 1992, India natural ally implies alliance with
recognized Israel in 1950 itself and defense and security pact like US-Israel,
India kept its relationship with Israel US-Japan etc.
‘behind the curtains’ due to above ● However, India values its strategic
mentioned reasons. Israel’s support autonomy and is averse to military
proved critical for India during its alliance.
wars with Pakistan and China.
IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A CONUNDRUM

YES NO
● Israel has consistently supported ● In the words of Minister of External
India on Kashmir issue Affairs S. Jaishankar, ‘the age of
● Support of Israel has been critical for alliances is over and India will go for
India in the Kargil War. issue-based alliances.’
● Secondly, according to Rajendra
Abhyankar, strategic imperatives in
West Asia are such that India will have
to go for middle ground rather than
alliances.
IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A CONUNDRUM

YES NO
● India-Israel relationship has evolved ● Thus, maintaining good relations with
into multifaceted one with defence all 3 pillars of Middle-East geopolitics
being the core. Other areas of i.e., Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran is
cooperation being Agriculture, critical for India.
wastewater treatment and science ● Thirdly, strategic experts have doubts
and technology. over the depth of India-Israel
relationships. Israel-China trade is way
more than India.
IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A CONUNDRUM

YES NO
● According to critics like G. K. Gandhi,
the relationship is too much hyped,
high on optics, less in substance.
● He pointed out that beyond the
Palestinian issue, there are several
important differences between Indian
and Israeli perceptions on matters of
national security.
IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A CONUNDRUM
YES NO
● Fourthly, Nicholas Blarel in his article
‘Recalibrating India’s Middle East
Policy’ has pointed out limitations in
relationships due to differences in
strategic situations, different world
views and lack of common enemy.
● India doesn’t share Israel’s animosity
for Iran and also doesn’t support
Israel’s aggressive anti-Iran posture.
Israel has welcomed the Belt and Road
Initiative sponsored by China and does
not share India’s deep concerns
relating to the expansion of China’s
influence in India’s neighbourhood and
the Indian Ocean region.
IS ISRAEL INDIA’S NATURAL ALLY- A CONUNDRUM

YES NO
● India is anxious to see a settlement of
the various contentions in the region,
many of which are aggravated by
Israel’s actions.
● These developments affirm that there
are serious limitations to India-Israel
relations. India Israel relations will
remain transactional in character and
never attain the level of a strategic
partnership.
 AREAS OF COOPERATION
Since the up gradation of relations in 1992, defence and agriculture
formed the two main pillars of our bilateral engagement.

DEFENSE COOPERATION

India is the largest buyer of Israeli military equipment

The two countries have elevated their ties to a strategic partnership
AREAS OF COOPERATION

The ambit of India-Israel defence cooperation has widened to include

other domains like space, counter-terrorism, and cyber security;
however, the cornerstone remains Israeli arms sales to India.

The major defence sales from Israel to India include Heron UAV, Barak
Missiles, SPYDER-MR air defence system etc.

Government has increased the limit for FDI in defence through the
automatic route from 49% to 74%.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

Comparative advantage of Israel as a defence partner

Israel supplies ready-to-use critical technologies, even on short

notices.
Israel has created its niche in the market with its innovation-backed
technologies such as UAVs, missile defence systems and surveillance
radars which are useful for patrolling and surveillance purposes in
peacetime and eases the operational ability of armed forces in
wartime.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

The export-oriented Israeli defence industry and its openness to

establishing joint ventures complement both ‘Make in India’ and
‘Make with India’ in defence.

Israeli arms can be flexibly deployed to various wings of the military,

which simplifies the operation during mission time.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

Israel has developed the expertise to customize its arms according to

the requirements of its customers.

Israel has always been a ‘no-questions-asked supplier’, i.e., it transfers

even its most advanced technology without placing limits to its use.

These factors make Israel a potential ‘all-weather’ defence partner for

India.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

AGRICULTURE

Indo-Israeli Agricultural Cooperation Project started in 2008 following

the signing of a three-year Action Plan based on Government-to-
Government Agreement.

Both started an agricultural fund worth $50 million that focused on

dairy, farming technology and micro-irrigation. Israeli drip irrigation
technologies and products are now widely used in India.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

India has benefited from Israeli expertise and technologies in

horticulture mechanization, protected cultivation, orchard and
canopy management, nursery management, micro- irrigation and
post-harvest management particularly in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Some Israeli companies and experts are providing expertise to

manage and improve dairy farming in India through their expertise in
high milk yield.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

Three Year Work Program Agreement

In 2021, India and Israel have signed “a three-year work program

agreement” for development in agriculture cooperation.

The programme aims to grow existing Centres of Excellence, establish

new centres, increase Centre of excellence’s value chain, bring the
Centres of Excellence into the self-sufficient mode, and encourage
private sector companies and collaboration.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

TRADE
The bilateral trade between India and Israel grew from $200 million in
1992 to $5.84 billion in 2018 (Indian exports to Israel was US$ 4.38
Billion during 2021).

India’s major exports to Israel and vice versa include precious stones
and metals, organic chemicals, electronic equipment etc.

The two countries have also signed a ‘Double Taxation Avoidance

Agreement’.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIONS

India-Israel cooperation in S&T is overseen by the Joint Committee on

S&T, established under the S&T Cooperation Agreement signed in
1993.

During the visit of PM Modi in July 2017, an MoU for establishing

India-Israel Industrial R&D and Innovation Fund (I4F) was signed.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

In 2012, the two countries signed a five-year $50 million academic

research agreement for promoting collaborative research across a
wide range of disciplines, including medical and information
technology, social and life sciences, humanities, and the arts.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

Establishments: “India Trail” is established in Israel to commemorate

the Indian soldiers who fell in World War I.

Similarly, a “Jewish Trail” is established in Mumbai to emphasize the

Jewish community’s contribution to India.
AREAS OF COOPERATION

People-People ties: The Indian-Jewish community contributed to the

building of the Indian nation.

Various experts like David Sassoon who helped found the Bank of
India, Lt General JFR Jacob, the hero of Bangladesh’s Liberation War in
1971, medical doctor Dr. Jerusha Jhirad, and poet Nissim Ezekiel have
their contributions in building the friendly relationship.
 CONCLUSION
Though both countries face unfriendly neighborhoods, radicalism and
terrorism, yet Israel’s engagement with India is mainly commercial.

Also, we cannot deny that both India and Israel have overlapping
strategic interests.

Relations are intimate but statements like “sky is the limit” remain a
hyperbole.
CONCLUSION

India’s present policy marks the end of era when ideological posturing
and vacuous morality rode roughshod over pragmatism and realism.

Thus, in the present geopolitical flux, India-Israel relations is

manifestation of relationship based on ‘enlightened self’
 VISION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER
In his celebrated poem, 'The Passing of Arthur', the poet Alfred
Tennyson writes the following lines When the dying King Arthur is set
on the royal barge to take him to the nether world:

The old order changeth yielding place to new

And God fulfils himself in many ways
Lest one good custom should corrupt the world.
VISION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER

There is little doubt that the world today is at an inflection point,

when the old and familiar order is crumbling but it is not clear what it
is yielding to.

If history is any guide, a new order will emerge.

The question is whether this will be born from the ashes of a

debilitating war or through a gradual process of adjustment
VISION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER

India is heir to a very rich and sophisticated tradition of statecraft and

diplomatic practice, and this legacy continues to shape its current
strategic culture and diplomatic behaviour.

Studying the Jambudvipa mandala from our ancient texts, one is

struck by the fact that it does not ascribe centrality and superiority to
Bharatvarsha, which is only one among the lotus petals that make up
our universe.
VISION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER

This is the reverse of the Chinese worldview, which sees the Han core
as the most advanced and civilized.

India will never have a 'middle kingdom complex’.

It accepts a world in which there are other dvipa or islands with their
own characteristics and values. One can relate this to India’s advocacy
for a multipolarity in the contemporary context.
VISION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER

The Indian Subcontinent and the eastern and western reaches of the
Indian Ocean surrounding it are reflected in the Jambudvipa as a
single, interconnected geopolitical and geo-economic unit with a
common history.

Along with Independence came partition in 1947.

The challenge for India is to transcend the political divisions in the

subcontinent to restore its cohesiveness and make its borders
increasingly irrelevant, drawing upon the enduring sources of affinity.
VISION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER

One can thus derive that India will reach out along the very same
remembered pathways traced by history - extending to the eastern
and western reaches of the Indian Ocean and to the Central Asian
neighbourhood to the north and west - as its economic and security
capabilities expand.
 WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA
(1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CRISIS OF 2007-08
The modern state system on which an international order is built
originated in the Peace of Westphalia which brought a debilitating
thirty-year war in Europe to a close in 1648.

It inaugurated a European order based on the concepts of political

sovereignty and territorial integrity of independent states and, as a
consequence, a multipolar order held together by a set of agreed rules
of the game and a balance of power among its participants.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

An attempt by any country to upset the balance and seek dominance

would trigger responses from other players to restore the equilibrium
of power.

And this is how the system operated in subsequent decades.

WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

After Westphalia the concept of European order received a further

elaboration at the Congress of Vienna convened in 1815.

The objective of the Congress was to restore peace in Europe by

constructing a new balance among the major powers after another
bout of nearly continuous warfare for almost 25 years due to the
French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

The Congress of Vienna may be regarded as a maturation of the

concept of multipolar order, with the development of a more
elaborate set of rules of engagement among sovereign states.

The Congress was followed by a series of regular meetings amongst its

main participants, which became known as the Concert of Europe
inaugurating the age of multilateral diplomacy.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

The Concert of Europe created the template which led to the setting
up of the League of Nations after the First World War which may be
considered the early precursor of the UN established in 1945 after the
Second World War.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

The US emerged from the ravages of the war as the most powerful
economic and military power.

It helped create multilateral institutions like the UN, the World Bank,
the International Monetary Fund and the GATT but ensured that these
were dominated by the West.

The UN label was useful in its interventions in countries far and near
but unilateralism would often be resorted to if the label was not
forthcoming.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

It was not until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the end of
the Cold War that the US and the West in general would enjoy a brief
unipolar interlude.

During this interlude which lasted up until the global financial and
economic crisis of 2007-08, the US was a true hegemonic power which
could set aside the established multilateral structures and processes
and ignore the Westphalian norms in the pursuit of an interventionist
strategy dictated by its own intent.

Other powers had to acquiesce either by choice or compulsion. It is

this interlude which is coming to an end.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

WHAT LESSONS DOES THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD SINCE THE BIRTH
OF THE WESTPHALIAN STATE SYSTEM HOLD FOR US?

A stable world order needs a careful balance between power and

legitimacy; and legitimacy is upheld when states, no matter how
powerful, observe the various established norms of behaviour and
codes of conduct and act through institutions which have been
accumulated and put in place over the past four centuries, layer by
layer.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

The Westphalian system by its very nature is multipolar in character

and is based on the assumption that any attempt by a state or a group
of states to gain hegemony will always invite countervailing action by
other states in the system and in extreme cases, war.

This is what happened when Napoleon tried to bring the whole of

Europe under French domination.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

The Napoleonic Wars ended with the restoration of balance at the

Congress of Vienna.

The balance was again sought to be upset by an ascendant Germany

and this led to two debilitating world wars.

In our own time, the period of US hegemony from 1990 to 2007-08,

when the global financial and economic crisis broke out, reducing the
West to prolonged and debilitating stagnation and psychological
pessimism, lasted only for a generation.
WORLD ORDER FROM PEACE OF WESTPHALIA (1648) TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-08

Hegemony often leads to hubris which in turn leads to overextension

and then to exhaustion and sometimes war through miscalculation.

The long period of European peace between the Congress of Vienna in

1815 up until the outbreak of the First World War in 1914 shows that
as long as all key actors generally observe mutually agreed rules of
interstate relations and norms of state behaviour a stable order can be
maintained.
 ASIA AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER
Over the past three decades and more, the Asia-Pacific region has
replaced the Atlantic as the center of gravity of the global economy.

Asia is home to the second and third largest economies in the world,
namely, China and Japan.

At a time when the economies of the US and Western Europe continue

to be sluggish, Asia has in India and China two of the fastest growing
large economies in the world.
ASIA AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER

They are likely to remain the key growth drivers of the global
economy.

The major powers in Asia have managed to sustain relative political

stability and social cohesion and this, too, enables them to exert
expanding influence on both regional and global affairs.
ASIA AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER

In PPP terms India is already the 3rd largest economy in the world
although it still lags behind at 6th place in nominal terms.

India has become the 5th largest economy in nominal terms

overtaking Britain.

In addition there are other substantial economies in South Korea,

Australia, Taiwan and the ASEAN countries as a whole.
 THE REALITY OF AN ASIAN WORLD ORDER
Asia has now emerged as a key fulcrum of power in the world. There
can be no multipolar world order without a multipolar Asia. An Asian
hegemon will inevitably aspire to global hegemony.

The US continues to be the most formidable military power in Asia.

However, its economic profile in the region has diminished even as

China's has grown.
THE REALITY OF AN ASIAN WORLD ORDER

However, the Chinese economy is slowing as has been the case with
every major economy in history. A simple linear projection of China's
current growth rate into the future may not be realistic.

China also remains a brittle polity and the rising insecurity within its
political leadership sits uneasily with overweening arrogance of
power.

Its historical insularity is at odds with the cosmopolitanism that the

densely interconnected contemporary world demands of any aspiring
global power.
THE REALITY OF AN ASIAN WORLD ORDER

We are, in reality, neither in a China-centric Asia nor in a world

destined to become China-centric.

China may continue to expand its economic and military capabilities

and may even become the most powerful country in the world but the
world which is emerging will still be populated by a number of
substantial powers both old and new.

This includes Asia.

 THE NECESSITY OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
ORDER
Most of the challenges we confront as an interconnected and
interdependent world are cross-cutting in character and global in
dimension.

These include global warming, health, pandemics, cybercrime, drug

trafficking, proliferation of WMDs and international terrorism among
others.

They are often cross-domain in nature with strong feedback loops.

THE NECESSITY OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD ORDER

The emergence of new technologies with an even greater global reach

and penetration makes such international collaboration a compulsion
today rather than a choice.

A hegemonic order can constrain other states; it will rarely be able to

promote collaborative action which can be effective only if based on
consent and consultation, not coercion.
THE NECESSITY OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD ORDER

Neither the Chinese version of national rejuvenation nor American

hopes of revivalism are realistic, precisely because the diffusion of
economic and military power and the horizontal and accelerated
spread of scientific knowledge and technology point to what author
Thomas Friedman has called the Flat World.
THE NECESSITY OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD ORDER

China may be ready to accept a US-dominated Western hemisphere if

it has conceded power over Asia-Pacific and Central Asia.

This is what several US and even Chinese analysts suggest for avoiding
the so-called Thucydides trap.
THE NECESSITY OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD ORDER

This is also the essence of what China calls the 'new type of great
power relations' between China and the US in order to avoid the
Thucydides trap.

But by its very nature it will be unstable as there will remain zone of
contestation between China and the US, and each will seek
uncontested dominance.
THE NECESSITY OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD ORDER

Even during the Cold War, neither superpower was able to fully
control its respective allies, and this can happen with more tragic
results in the unsettled world today.

As a substantial and growing power itself, it is unlikely that India will

accept junior league status in a Chinese-centric world.
 A WORLD ORDER THAT SUITS INDIA
It is evident that for India it is a multipolar order which will be most
aligned with its interests.

It is an emerging power which seeks to expand its own room for

maneuver unconstrained by either a latter-day hegemon or a return
to a bipolar system dominated by two major powers.
A WORLD ORDER THAT SUITS INDIA

Its developmental challenges need a supportive, peaceful and stable

international environment.

Therefore, India's best interests are served by its assistance in shaping

a multipolar order with the support of other major powers.

It should not hesitate in promoting and participating in a

countervailing coalition to constrain any aspiring hegemon even while
it expands its own economic and military capabilities.
A WORLD ORDER THAT SUITS INDIA

But this cannot be the whole of India's story.

India possesses the civilizational attributes which could contribute to

the success of a new international order attuned to contemporary
realities.

Its culture is innately cosmopolitan; it embraces vast diversity and

plurality and yet has an underlying sense of being part of a common
humanity.
 VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS
David Malone - Book: Does the Elephant Dance?

On Global burden-sharing: Now that India is, on the strength of its

economic successes, taken quite seriously by other major global
players, it will need to grapple with whether, when, how and in what
proportions it can and wants to share global burdens.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Given the recent splintering of international relations into a genuinely

multipolar system, India will likely organize its multilateral and even
some of its bilateral diplomacy in years ahead through issue driven ad
hoc coalitions and in some cases evanescent grouping of countries.

While seeking to advance its interests and increase its influence

globally, it is likely to continue to engage in a 'hedging strategy' as
between other significant powers.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

At the strategic level, India is not yet a particularly significant player

beyond its own neighbourhood.

International experts view only the Indian Navy as having developed

both a strategy and the political support and resources to implement
it in expanding India's global reach.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Time and history are on India's side as it struggles to recover from

several centuries of foreign domination and its consequences.

Its re-emergence, particularly if it manages its significant domestic

challenges with success, will be one of the major shifts of the 21st
century.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Amb Rajiv Sikri: A new balance of power is emerging, though its

contours keep shifting.

Where does India fit in this changing balance of power?

India is undoubtedly very strategically located at the crossroads of

Asia where five ‘arcs’ intersect.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

i. The ‘arc of growth and prosperity,’ extending from India through

South East Asia to East Asia;
ii. The ‘arc of instability and turbulence’ to India’s west extending from
Pakistan to Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, and the Arab world;
iii. The ‘arc of energy’ extending from the Persian Gulf through the
Caspian Sea to Russia’s Siberian and Arctic regions;
iv. The ‘arc of communications’ comprising the trade and energy SLoCs
in the northern Indian Ocean region (IOR);
v. The ‘arc of uncertainty,’ north of India, encompassing Nepal, Tibet,
Xinjiang, and the Central Asian countries.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

In the current shifting kaleidoscope, India is seeking to develop a new

paradigm for India’s foreign policy where India would not be a mere
‘balancer’ or ‘swing state’ but a ‘leading state’ that seeks a place at the
global high table.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Shivshankar Menon, Book: "Choices: Inside the Making of India's

Foreign Policy" (2016)
I have no doubt that China wishes to be number one in the world.

As patriotic Chinese, convinced that China was number one in the

world order until the aberration of the last two centuries, it is natural
that Chinese leaders will try to take the place of the United States as
world superpower.

I do believe that "speak softly and carry a big stick" is likely to be a

more productive policy for India to mobilize in dealing with the
consequences of China's rise and the changes we see around us.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Like China itself, and every other successful rising power in history,
India too should follow a variant of Deng's Twenty-Four-Character
strategy, or of the policies expounded in George Washington's
farewell address, a Bismarckian policy rather than the vainglorious
temptations that led Kaiser Wilhem II stray.

As Bhishma said in his advice to kings while dying on his bed of

arrows, "He who is silent secures the following of others; the
restrained one enjoys everything in life."
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

At the risk of disappointing those who call on India to be a

"responsible" power - meaning they want us to do what they wish -
and at the risk of disappointing Indians who like to dream of India as
an old-fashioned superpower, I would only say, as Indira Gandhi once
said, "India will be a different power" and will continue to walk its own
path in the world.

That is the only responsible way for us.

VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Henry Kissinger, Book: World Order (2014)

Britain's policy based the security of India on the British naval
supremacy in the Indian Ocean; on friendly, or at least
nonthreatening, regimes as far-flung as Singapore and Aden; and on a
non-hostile regime at the Khyber Pass and the Himalayas.

Contemporary analogues to these policies have been taken over as

key elements of foreign policy of post-independence India.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

They amount to a regional order for South Asia, whose lynchpin

would be India, and the opposition of any country's attempts,
regardless of its domestic structure, to achieve a threatening
concentration of power in the neighbouring territories.

India's role in world order is complicated by structural factors related

to its founding.

Among the most complex will be its relations related to its closest
neighbours, particularly Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and China.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

No successor state has accepted the boundaries of the 1947 partition

of the subcontinent in full.

Treated as provisional by one party or another, the disputed borders

have ever since been the cause of sporadic communal violence,
military clashes, and terrorist infiltration.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Today India pursues a foreign policy in many ways similar to the quest
of the former British Raj as it seeks to base a regional order on a
balance of power in an arc stretching halfway across the world, from
the Middle East to Singapore, and then north to Afghanistan.

Its relations with China, Japan and Southeast Asia follow a pattern akin
to the 19th century European equilibrium.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

With India, Japan and China all led by strong and strategically oriented
administrations, the scope both for intensified rivalries and for
potential bold resolutions will expand.

In any of these evolutions, India will be a fulcrum of 21st century

order: an indispensable element, based on its geography, resources,
and tradition of sophisticated leadership, in the strategic and
ideological evolution of the regions and the concepts of order at
whose intersection it stands.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

Muchkund Dubey - Working for a New World Order (Book: India's

Foreign Policy: Coping with the Changing World)

An important aim of any country, including that of India, is to

contribute to world peace and prosperity and play an active role in
the establishment of a just, fair and equitable world order.

The world order continues to remain unjust, inequitable and unfair to

the interests of the overwhelming majority of nations of the world.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

It continues to serve interests of the dominant powers and works

inexorably against those of the weaker nations.

The former group of countries are determined to maintain the status

quo in the existing world order and resort to any means, including the
use of force, to achieve this purpose.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

It is in India's self-interest as well as its moral obligation to actively

work for changing the status quo and establishing a new world order.

India should not be diverted from this task by the temptation of

sitting at the high table and being prematurely proclaimed as a major
economic power.

For, India is still at the receiving end of the present world order and is
likely to remain so for quite some time to come in the foreseeable
future.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

The new paradigm on which the international system should be based

is democratic and dynamic multilateralism, essentially underpinned
by the UN.

There is a feeling that if the decision-making process in the UN,

particularly in the Security Council, is not democratized, any
strengthening of the organization would prove counterproductive
from the point of view of developing countries like India.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

The strengthened UN would be used mainly against these countries,

which are more vulnerable than the permanent members and their
allies.

Given its bilateral problems with its neighbours, India would be

particularly vulnerable to interventions by the UN.
VIEWPOINTS OF THE VARIOUS SCHOLARS

This is one of the reasons why among the proposals for strengthening
the UN, India has been almost exclusively preoccupied with the issue
of the expansion of the membership of the Security Council, including
an increase in the number of permanent members, as a step toward
democratizing the decision-making process.
 India Iran Relations
connection in both the
civilization Indus valley
civilization Mesopotamia

Trade linkages

Persian was an important

in N W India
language
There are also common
linkages in
Architecture
etc
sufism
Indus seals have been excavated at Kish Susa
ur in Iran
Persia

Afghanistan silver copper turquoise

lapis lazuli
Imported
to India
was imported India
Ivory from
Two shared borders until the partition independence
in 1947
Tehran Declaration signed
during PM Atal Bihari
 Vajpayee's visit to Iran affirmed the shared vision
2 countries
of the for an equitable pluralistic
co operative international order

In Taliban's leadership Fran is

havinggood
dynamics with Afghanistan
India to reinvigorate in
Afghanistan can
take help from Iran

Bilateral relations
Both have several bilateral consultative mechanisms
at various levels meetings take placeregularly
Manohar Parrikar Institute Defence Studies
forPolitical
t Institute
analysis India of International
studies IPls Iran hold
regular rounds of
tables to exchange views ideas of bilateral
multilateral issues
Iran frequently objected to Pakistan's attempts to
draft anti India resolutions at International organisations
sa the OIC organisation of Islamic Cooperation the
Human Rights Commissionlitre
India welcomed Iran's inclusion as an observer status
in SAARC
Economic relations
India import Iranian crude oil
India's plus point
refinery

India export to Iran Petroleum products

rice machinery instruments manufactures of metals
etc

India Iran have set several projects like

up
TAPI
gas pipeline
Iran Pakistan India iPll pipeline
MBA pipeline
Myanmar Bangladesh India
south Pass LNG project
gas field
Chabahar container terminal project
Chabahar
Zaranj railway project etc
India is a member
of INST
Two countries have finalized Bilateral Investment
Promotion Protection Agreement BIPAA
Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement DTAA
Strategic location
Iran between Persian the Caspian Sea
Gulf
provides an alternative route
of connectivity
to Afghanistan CA countries

large deposits of crude oil natural

gas
for Iran
India aids Asia oriented foreign
Iran's
policy
2nd
largest populous country with
major economy a huge demographic
dividend
Gives Iran access to5th largest economy
to invest in enhance trade relations with

Issues in India Iran relations

2019 Us sanctions under CAA SA led to stoppage
of
oil imports from Iran
This was revocation
after the
Iran
of
nuclear deal
CAA SA hurts India's security
energy
India's close relations with Israel t Iran's ties with
China bones contention
of
Obama tried to improve the relations with Iran
 Trump came out of the JepoA deal with Iran

In terms drones Iran's tech is best

of
Stand Saudi Arabia UAE
of Iran in Yemen
against

closepartners
of
India
by Indian govt
Article 370 abrogation cause
tension with Iran
of
Iran's previous regime instigated Muslims of
Kashmir Reprimanded by India severely
The termination Indian participation in
of
Chabahar Railway Project farzad B gas field
by Iran

Restructuring India Iran relations

is a common
Afghanistan ground
Iran never withdrew its consulate from Kabul
after Taliban took the governance
of Iran with Taliban can be
The relations
India
helpful for
 India has had good cordial relations with
the countries
gulf relations with tan
sour
has
But the recent diplomatic ties between
Iran countries like UAE Qatar
few gulf
to have
open up the scene for India a deeper
wider reach in West Asia

Inst project to enhance connectivity

forward
way

Both have a lot to achieve in energy

sector
other areas should also be explored
of convergence
 india West Asia Relations
Introduction

T Mahan
Alfred highlighted
West Asia wa as a
bridge
3 continents
of
Asia t
Africa Europe

hegemon n'a land

Mackinder Become
Mahan Become via seas
hegemon

India has been historically linked to wa through

culture commerce colonialism
WA in India's
security parameter
titical India's power projection
for
Hamid Ansari The control was
of gulf strategic
imperative for the defence
of colonial possessions
 land
WA is a
of Great power politics
work conflict
Travelling through Ansari
held that strategic importance of wa flowsthrough
its geography as a land bridge of 3 continents
natural resources However it curse
suffers from of
centrality

WA India
Significance of for
Geostrategic
The
famous Great Game left a devastating lasting
impact on the states its politics peoples environment
resources economies
Region haspolitical instability civil war sectarian
rivalry etc
WA remains one essential pillars to counter
of the
terrorism
Good relations with WA nations is
necessary for
countering isis threat support of Gcc for
Pakistan fundamentalism
WA abode numerous resources
of energy
trade routes to different parts oftheworld
Houses

Birth place Abrahamic religions

of
India is seen as a Balances to counter China's
 rise Middle East
of
Due to Us China tensions even West Asian
rising
countries are to strengthen economic as well as
eager
defence partnership with India

nearby to various chokepoints

WA

Good relations with these countries remains

a prerequisite for India's image as net
security provider in the Indo Pacific

Geo economic

WA North Africa region meets

Gulf major share
a

of India's
needs
energy
India's total imports of
60
of
crude oil
8590
of India's LNG requirements
WA 8 to 9 million Indians in WA
Inward remittances
UN report on international
migration 2019
Inward remittances from the Gulf into
India were 38 billion U.s dollars
Important trade routes passes through Persian Gulf
Suez canal

Background India's WA
of policy

former Amb Ranjit Gupta Policy should be based on

mature recognition of own imitations of capabilities
influence
India's is prudent in
policy of passivity
volatile unpredictable WA
Tf speech is silver then in some cases
silence is
gold

Prof Gisijesh Pant wa is not place for display of

India's power Its place for augmentation of
India's power

Ishrat Aziz India's was based on secular

policy
consideration interests
of geopolitical geoeconomic
not on
ideology religion
Alternative view

S Jaishankar India's foot print in WA has been

of strategic calculus
autonomous
 It was
mainly driven by markets focus was on
oil diaspora however the strategic aspect was
missing

Rajamohan India's mental map of Middle East was

C

too simplistic
It was based on two axis Arab Israeli conflict
Anti imperialistic solidarity
It was driven domestic political expediency
by
rather than geostrategic vision

In the past India has managed a successful balancing

act in a
tripolar WA
Israel

Saudi Iran
Arabia
Less political manoeuvering for India in this region

India has adapted its fp to suit the

evolving global politics
from the ideologicallydriven NAM
to a
policy
based on
greater pragmatism

was
reflected in Neha Nasser alliance
 India supported the Arabs western
against
in case Palestine t 1956 Suez Crisis
interference of
Post cold was a protectionist economy
ideology
3rd world concerns were junked
advocacy of
national interest oriented pragmatism became the
guiding principle

India ceased wa through the prism its

viewing of
issues with Pakistan
Relationship now on the basis mutual
of
benefit
Except for continuing activism relating to
or
Kashmir in particular there are no bilaterally
contentious political issues between India GCC
countries
2011 Turmoil in WA India hands
off policy
Present
Policy
strategic Autonomy
s Jaishankar As a nation that
imports 859 of its
oil through the Gulf India will push a diplomatic
for
resolution the matter to secure its interests
of
India's current EP towards wa is based on

strategic autonomy
India's policy is motivated by its active pursuit
economic opportunities in West Asia
of

Energy security
Greater connectivity
Trade through development Chabahar Poet
of
Think West Policy
S Jaishankar I can confidently predict that
Act fast would be matched with WA
Based on realist assumption
of IR that National
Interest is the main goal
During Raisina dialogue 2017 If P has to be
understood in accordance with India's changedstatus

in policy its manifestations

changes
views
scholarly

Talmiz Ahmed Due to economic rise I

imageof
India as a neutral there is
growing expectation in
WA
from India
Ranjit Gupta shift in policy post 2014 is a two way
street There is change in perception of countries
of the Middle East because of rise of India's
economic
strength recognition of Pakistan's role in
preventing terrorism decline the USA
of shift of
global energy market from Trans Atlantic to
Indo Pacific

MK
Narayan Despite its longterm presence in the
million the region
region a 9 strong diaspora
being its principle source of oil India
is not a
both Russia China have
major player today
overtaken India in the
affairs ofthe region

Gary Bustan India's Look west policy of Balancing

seems to be working but its sustainability is
not certain

Presently the Middle East has become more

multipolar

Current trends in WA

Tran Saudi conflict Growing

closeness between China
 Tran

Part
of American Alliance After WWI both countries
were
part of tmerican alliance against Ussr

1979 Revolution Shia centric theologyvs

Saudi
dominated Muslim world

Saudi in American
camp
Iran working
against america
Saudi

war 2003 Differences sharpened

tag
Increased the
Arab Spring rivalry by proxy wars in
Yemen
Syria
Obama's attempt to normalize relations with Ian
through JcPoa were opposed by Saudi led Gcc
Israel
Trump administration pulled out of the
agreement under its Maximum Pressure strategy

Sanctions on Iran pushed Iran doses to China

 Both signed as
strategic
year cooperation
Agreement

of sectarian conflict
This intensification has also
impacted India

Its implications
Deterioration relations between Gcc Iran
of
Iran Saudi Arabia have also made
arena for their
Afghanistan an regional
competitions
Both have significant links with Taliban
Due to us sanctions India has to cut its
oil imports from tan
gas
Operation Raahat To evacuate Indian civilians
from Yemen Syria
Terrorism
Talmiz Ahmad 3 sets of regional players are active
in
Afghanistan today
The Pakistan saudi coalition support Taliban at was

Turkey Qatar share an ideological kinship with

the Taliban hacks political Islam
to saudi Arabia
antagonist
 Iran sees
itself as the guardian of the Tajik
Uzbek Hazara minorities in the country
Recall the earlier Taliban emirate which was
viscerally hostile to Shias Iran
Pakistan support to Taliban was condemned
by
Iran
Though Isis has been defeated yet there is strong
support for its ideology resurgence of
Taliban
can further momentum to spread
give
in
of
extremist ideology wa beyond
Attack on Kabul airport revival of Isis

Afghanistan already has several

thousand
foreign fighters whose ranks could swell with
extremists in from
coming tag Syria threaten
of all neighbouring states
the security

Abraham Accords UAE t Bahrain would establish

their respective embassies in Israel
It would allow
for Muslims to one of the
holiest sites in Islam the Al Aqsa mosque in
Jerusalem

following the
accord Sudan Morocco also normalised
relations with Israel in the same
year
Talmiz Ahmad The rise
of Taliban can strengthen
an Israel centric security order in which the
Arab Gulf states would link themselves with Israel
to confront Ian

weakness while the regimes of some Gulf States

could be attracted to it the populations are
to be opposed
likely
The proposal will also ensure that wa
remains confrontational unstable

How Abraham Avoids opened WA for India

Us India Israel UAE In
for greater
coordination in the region
cooperation
Quad the Middle East
of
Sunni Arab
camp led by UAE Saudi Arabia
Jewish
power centre in Israel
Shia Islam in Iran

UAE providing mid air refuelling to India's new

Dassault Royale
fighter aircraft despite challenges
posed by covin 19 pandemic
 Look west Indian example
policy of long term
diplomacy
India continues to provide a
significant market
including for hydrocarbons despite the narrative
of energy transitions around the climate change
debate
Indian market growth projections are critical
its
to Saudi's economic
transformation
operation sankalp Indian warships proactively
escorted 16 Indian Iran vs us
flagged ships

India
managed an upper hand often forcing
Pakistan's 151 to relocate capacity
from the
traditional stronghold Dubai to Turkey
of

Dynamics of the superpowers in

WA

Decline USA
of
Ahmed
Talmiz The a new
germ of regional
security order without the Us in wa is
already sown in fertile ground
2021 Gcc States led
by Saudi Arabia lifted
the over 3 blockade of Qatar
year
There have been 3 rounds discussions between
of
 Iran Saudi Arabia plans are in place
for the next meetings
has initiated diplomatic overtures towards
Turkey
Egypt Saudi Arabia
None
of these initiatives involves America like
Saudi Arabia Russia signed
military cooperation
agreement
Policy of strategic hedging of USA
Two conferences in Baghdad
Coalition Jordan
of Iraq Egypt for
economic cooperation
states
Brought together the principle regional
to confront shared challenges

Rise
of China
Built ties with WA based on 3 principles
secure E
energy supplies
expand markets for finished goods M
I
find investment opportunities
under Xi Jinping China is to the
trying occupy
void leftby the
Us in Europe South Asia
WA
active
years have been
Beijing in recent more
in
global diplomacy
 Have started taking strong positions at the UN
Have started flexing its muscles along
military
with Russia in the Mediterranean
Have become increasingly close to Iran while

maintaining close commercial contacts with Saudi

Arabia
Attempting to build alternate regional structures
with Russia Pakistan Iran Turkey

part of China's BRI

Manoj rewalramani Beijing wants to do more but is

not keen on replicating Washington's political
in the
military engagement region
American presence in the region allows a certain
degree
of freeriding of China

There's also chance Iran

a
for alignment on
nuclear non
proliferation
Antony Blinkers us secretary of state acknowledged
this by identifying Iran Afghanistan among
two
areas where the interests both sides USA R China
of
 intersect

This can deepen the competition between Us

China this can further complicate matters
for
India

China maintaining a balanced position in wa is

more suited for India

forward India
way for
There is broad consensus scholars that India
among
should not step over
faultlines with wa
However India needs to
any
secure its vital interests in
WA
be
New Delhi's topmost
priority should energy
security welfare of diaspora
India needs to consolidate partnership with
key countries Saudi Arabia Iran Israel UAE
in line with its status as Emerging Global Power
India needs to strengthen its role net security
of
provider in IO by active naval cooperation with
countries
gulf
Indian can an annual WA Summit
organize
 can initiate an annual regional energy dialogue

conclusion
India needs to adopt proactive policy
Multiple alignment remains the best framework
to handle complex WA geopolitics
in education Green tech climate issues etc

Afghanistan

Introduction
Narayanan Article up threads from
MK
Picking
Afghan rubble
Due to its geographical positioning influence
regional stability the political future of
on
considerable significance
Afghanistan will be of
to several nations with competing sets interests
of
as well as to pan Asian relations as a whole

Afghanistan has been the land

of great games
Persian Ottoman Empire or Russia
Britain or usa ussr
rivalry rivalry
 Also known as as
it was responsible
graveyard
demise
empires
of
for of great
Alexander the Great to USSR
empires from now
us

At present New
great game is
emerging
between
US China in
Afghanistan

Rajiv Sikri Book Rethinking India's foreign Policy

mentions Kautilya's Mandal Siddhant

Neighbor's neighbor is our friend

Thus
for India friendly stable regime in
is an insurance Pakistan's
Afghanistan against
deep state

Peace
stability in Afghanistan
is important

for India
forin
Kashmir
security
Securing Indian investment in Afghanistan
India's power projection

Historical Background India Afghanistan

of
Beginning of Great game through British designs
preventing the expansion of Russian influence
on

established the idea

state British
between
Afghanistan Buffer
India Russian Central Asia
Durand Line

Soviet occupation 1979 India's non aligned stance

low point in the relationship

After Soviet withdrawal India Iran Russia

started supporting the Northern Alliance
against
the Taliban

USA defeated Taliban

India first country to open its embassy in

Kabul

India continued to remain engaged in

Afghanistan through political economic cultural
investment means
 Growing
closeness with India Afghanistan
2011 signing the
through of strategic
Partnership Agreement

Limited role
of India due
to pressure

from the us
us has made Pakistan as frontline state in
its global war on terrorism
This Indian policy was
criticized by
realist as risk aversion policy or
Panipat syndrome

Significance of Afghanistan for India

Harsh v Pant India was Pakistan's
policy
following
channeled through USA

Steve Coll Book Directorate S The CIA America's

secret war in Pakistan 2001.20167
Afghanistan
India kept on implementing Pakistan's policy
in Afghanistan
gave away strategic space
to Pakistan by to
soft power
limiting itself
diplomacy
Happymon Jacob India does not have a
contingency
plan soft power alone cannot secure
India's interests in the region

Rajeshwari Pillai Rajagopalan India wanted Afghan

led Afghan
owned process
signalling
Afghan got
isolated
This India on multiple negotiations

Geostrategic
Connecting fast West Central North east Asia
Proximity to major powers like Russia China India
Iran
Centre Great Game
of
Peace in Afghanistan
stability Regional stability
centre
of radical ideology drug trafficking
smuggling

Geoeconomic
connectivity
Mineral wealth Tn worth of resource deposits

Energy security TAPI pipeline

Areas
of cooperation
Economic cooperation

India 2nd largest destination for Afghanistan

exports
minerals bike
Afghanistan possess
many gold iron
copper ett
more than 100 companies have invested in various
sectors
of its economy including agriculture ie
etc
mining
Important for TAPI pipeline
India Afghanistan Iran have jointly signed a
trade deal
investment in Chabahar post

India's development programs in Afghanistan

India assist Afghanistan in its reconstruction
Bilateral assistance of 2 Bn
program
India have completed
many infrastructure
projects in Afghanistan
Salma Dam Parliament Building in Kabul
Mid day meal scheme etc

Defence cooperation
Provided
training
e Russia will military equipment to
provide
Afghanistan India will for it
pay
India provided 3 Russian made Mi 2s attack
helicopters to Afghanistan

cooperation
through conferences
SAARC Heart Asia conference
of

Areas contention
of
Terrorism
Afghani Taliban Haqqani
Network etc
Regional security is threatened
Affect the good relations between India
Afghanistan
Internal security India can be threatened
of
of Pakistan
Role in thwarting the good relationship
between India
Afghanistan
wants to derail peace in Afghanistan
through
Support to Afghan Terrorist
Meddling in the internal affairs of Afghanistan
 forward
way
with USA withdrawal India can
proactive a
play
role in maintaining peace providing security
India is also planning air
cargo link
to

improve business
for
supply of goods
scale direct assistance
up military
Ties between Pakistan are getting
Afghanistan
weakened
presents opportunity to India

India's engagement with Taliban

Scholar's take

Happymon Jacob realist reconstruction

Integrate
with reconciliation otherwise all efforts are futile
Vivek Katja cannot be alibi
strategic patience an

for inaction India must rethink wait

watch Afghan Policy
role
Narayanan India should take mediating
MK
sushant sareen Raise the capacity capability
of
Afghan people
Rakesh Sood Shiv Shankar Menon soft Power
No boots on ground policy
Difference in India's approach than rest of the world
wort Afghanistan

Engagement with Pakistan every

county except India
has a working relationship with Pakistan
dialogues about Afghanistan
with Taliban No countries have
engagement
recognised Taliban interim govt
Yet all countries are the Taliban
engaging
leadership in some form

India wants to underline the that no

fact
country wishes
to
legitimise the interim Taliban
Govt
Will be difficult as Russia Iran have
engaged Taliban for some time maintained
embassies there

Approach of other countries

a Turkmenistan sent a ministerial level delegation
to discuss connectivity with Taliban in

particular the TAPI pipeline

Uzbekistan accepted the visit by Taliban Deputy
PM Hanafi discussed trade transit etc
Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Both sent high ranking
delegation to Kabul to talk
to Taliban
FM
Tajikistan Engaged less
Made it clear that it will not recognize
Taliban only
govt
India Had two
official meetings with
only
Taliban

Engaging Afghanistan
via CA route

Taliban led Afghanistan has raised Geo strategic

both India CARepublics
security concerns
for AR
borders with CA nations
Long Afghanistan of
Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Terrorist groups like Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan IMU Islamic Jihad Union 150
etc have increased regional security concerns
Growing scepticism of Pakistan have made the
CARS

rethink their regional strategy

Control China's colonial ambitions
Coherent
approach is needed from both cars
Afghanistan
Gcc Afghanistan

fears
of instability rises then dream
Taliban Islamic
Emirate
If of
blurred
may get
Saudi will have toaccept Taliban
Khalid al Jabar Director of MENA centre in
Washington DC Saudi Arabia have no other
option
Saudi Arabia's approach will likely to be
a moderating one to
further away Taliban from
extremism
is also conducting outreach to
Riyadh washington
backing the American line on Afghanistan
Qatar has been an overseas
hosting office for
the Taliban since 2013
Doha has been venue for the intra Afghan
Peace Talks between erstwhile Afghan Govt the
Taliban
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
Points to notice
who
fled Afghanistan was not allowed to
land in Tajikistan has been
given
in UAE
asylum
also agreed to host 5000 Afghan
nationals
Importance of GCC
crucial in
Afghanistan
Thus New Delhi needs to
find synergies
with Middle Eastern countries especially Tran
Qatar which have strong links with the Taliban

conclusion

C
Rajamohan strategic rewards in
Afghanistan
are as as risks
India
large
is realistic know that it doesn't
enough to
have power to
unilaterally define Afghanistan's
power
But India needs to develop some
leverage
influence outcomes in Afghanistan through
proactive diplomacy
Shashank Joshi India is a small in the
fish
water but its clout is growing
Needs to move beyond economic cooperation

military engagement
 India Israel Relations

Israel

Israel's development is connected to WWII 19391945

Jews atrocities
Germany
Jerusalem hub
of 3 important religion
Christians t Jews Muslims
Demand
of a nation for tens
us had more prominent role in making Israel as
nation Jews
a
for
This is with view
angle
seen a
of Imperialism
colonialism by India

The timeline India Israel relations has

evolving of
been described in the following steps
 I During colonial period initial
years of
Creation
independence of Israel
Idealism
India was against a formation of nation on the
basis of religion because India went throughthe
black period of partition
Nehru Gandhi
India was pro Palestine as it believed in
Plurality
creation
of Israel is nothing but a strategy of
colonial division organisation
1949 Recognized pro as ighstnimatpo.ee
representing Palestine
1950
Recognize Israel
Nehru Israel is
fact
a

oh bl Wh
axis muslim solidarity against Hamas
for Base Gaza Strip
India
India here keeps Pro Palestine
If terrorist organs
stance then in some it is ation
Pak
wayaxis
Arab
weakening the
Realism

2 Cold was phase

India's inclination was with USSR hence there was
a
gap in India Israel relation
supported USA
by
3 Post cold war Phase
1991 Disintegration USSR
of
1992 India trail started to flourish
LPG Reforms were adopted in India
Unipolar world order was seen in USA's

leadership
Diplomatic relations with Israel was established
Major India Israel relations axis Defence
Now De hyphenation was seen in India Israel
relations
Two rival nations keep relations with both
Israel Palestine
with them on their own merit
engage
why defence
Israel as a nation's sustenance is based on its defence
pruness
sides
Israel facing threats from all
was
Israel as a defence partner was lucrative
for
India as Israel had Research Development R D
UAVs anti missile Defense system etc
Trade with tread on defence was as it was
easy
flexible accessible Israel also provides supply in
short time
India's peace time operation capabilities in defence
improved
Supply of Radars UAVs surveillance
improved
After 1992 Relations developed Moving forward with
defence agriculture

Modern drip irrigation R D wet

seeds
fertilizers
Establishment us 50 min
of fund for agriculture
tech collaboration
UN India was
playing balance
India abstained on UN Resolution against
Israel's sole in HR violations
Israel declared Jerusalem as the official
capital
India stood against this unilateral decision
Yet India Israel relation didn't decline
Benjamin Netanyahu former PM of Israel described
the relation as marriage made in heaven
implemented here on earth
 Israel supports India on Kashmir issue

Post 2014
2017 PM Modi visited Israel first time happened

Agreements Govt to Govt interactions improved

7 were made
Agreements
Defence Cybersecurity Agriculture space Science tech
etc
India Israel Industrial Innovation fund Inf
2018 PM Modi visited Palestine
In Defence sector India has increased 7490 in
FBI from 4990 under automatic route
KalyaniRafael Advanced system Put Ad
India Israel

for India's west Asia

effective foreignpolicy in
three pillars needs to be managed
Israel Saudi Iran
Arabia
strategic significance
Economic
 Instances of Balancing act of India
In Palestine
favour
2017 UNESCO
of
India abstained from voting Israel HR
violations
India voted in favour resolution in
of a
the UNGA opposing the Trump administration's
recognition of Jerusalem as Israeli capital
UNHRC's 46th Session in Geneva India voted
against
Israel in 3 resolutions
Right of self determination the Palestinian
of
people
Israeli settlement policy
HR situation in the Golan Heights
Abstained on
UNHRC repost on HR situation in Palestine
HR abuses in Palestinian territory International
Criminal court wanted investigation on it
PM Netanyahu wanted India to take a stand
it on the issue was surprised when
against
it was not forthcoming

In favour of Israel
In recent India's position has beenperceived
years
as pro Israel
PM Palestine called
India's support to
of for play a
stabilising role in west Asia India's FAM
visit to Israel excluded a trip to Palestine
2011 PM Modi visited only Israel not Palestine
2019 India voted in favour Israel at the Ecosoc
of
to observer status to a Palestinian
deny
organisation named shaheed
India abstained from voting to a resolution
calling for investigation into Israeli actions in
the Gaza strip at the UNHRC
Is Israel India's Natural Ally A conundrum

Israeli Newspaper Haaretz India wants an affairwhen

it comes to Israel not a serious relationship

Yes

1992 India established diplomatic ties with Israel

1950 India recognized Israel
Israel's support proved critical for India during its
wars with Pakistan China
Israel supported India on Kashmir issue
Support of Israel in Kargil War
India Israel relationship has evolved into multifaceted
one with defence being the core

No
natural
In IR discourse
ally implies alliance
with defence security pact like Us Israel
us etc
Tapan
India values its strategic autonomy is averse
to alliance
military The
S Jaishankar
of alliance is over India
age
will issue based partnership
go for
Rajendra Abhyankas strategic imperatives in west
Asia are such that India will have to
go
middle ground rather than alliances
for
Thus India should maintain
good relations with
all 3 Israel Saudi Arabia Iran

strategic experts Israel China trade is way

more than India
G K Gandhi The relationship is too much hyped
on optics less in substance
high
There are several important differences between
India Israeli perceptions on matters national
of
security
Nicholas Blared Article Recalibrating India's Middle East
Policy
Pointed out limitations in relationships due to
differences in strategic situations different world
views lack of common
enemy
India share Israel's animosity with Iran
doesn't
Israel has welcomed the China's BRI
There are serious limitations to India Israel

relationship
will remain transactional in character
never attain the lad
of a strategic partnership
Areas
of cooperation
Defence
largest buyer
is India of Israeli military
equipment
Defence cooperation in space counter
terrorism
cyber
security
Major defence sales from Israel to India
Heron UAV Barak Missiles SPYDER MR air defence

system etc

comparative advantage of Israel as a defence partner

Israel supplies ready to use defence technologies even
on short notices
 backed technologies
Innovation
of Israel UAVs
missile defence system etc
Complement both Make in India Make with India
Israel has developed the expertise to customize its
arms
no questions asked
supplies
all weather defence partner

Agriculture
Indo Israeli Agricultural cooperation project
us 50 mn
Agri fund
for dairy farming technology
micro irrigation
Israeli drip irrigation technology used in
widely
India
India has benefitted from Israeli expertise

technolo­gies
in horticulture mechanization protected
cultivation etc
Three work
year Program agreement for development
in agriculture cooperation
Aims to grow existing centres excellence
of
establish new centres increase value chain
bring self sufficient
mode etc
Trade
1992 200 Mn
2018 5.84 Bn
Indian exports to Israel
4 38Bn 2021
precious stones metals organic
chemicals etc
Both have signed Double Taxation Avoidance
Agreement

Science
Technology sat innovations
Joint Committee on 527
I Yf
in academia industry
collaborating
2012 Signed a 5 50 Mn academic research
year
agreement

Establishments
India Trail in Israel to commemorate Indian
soldiers who fell in WWI
Jewish Trail in Mumbai emphasize Jewish
community's contribution in India

People to People ties

David Sassoon helped in finding Bank of India
 Lt General JER Jacob Hero Liberation
was in 1971
of Bangladesh

Dr Jerusha Third doctor

Nissim Ezekiel poet

conclusion

though both countries face unfriendly neighbourhoods

radicalism terrorism yet Israel's engagement with
India is mainly commercial
Both have overlapping strategic interests
Relations are intimate but statements like
sky is a
limit remain a hyperbole
 Vision of a new world
order
world order

rules agreed by the most

present world order popular term nation

relations nations
among
starts with Treaty
of westphalia 1648
to
bring stability
bring nations
comes
from word nasa
commonness

will prosperity
bring security

to be set
for it some
ground rules up
Territorial integrity
sovereignty will be utmostpriority
 balance
through of power
was peace
Treaty of Napoleonpolicy
30 westphalia
years
Instability
world order is
Congress of
Vienna 1015 in
danger
Elaborate WWI Leagueof
rules 1914 1918 Nations
of engagement
given in treaty
ofWestphalia
UN WWI failed
makes 19391945
rules
of
engagement
also believes in the concept of nation
Territorial
integrity
collective security
root in treaty Westphalia
of
Challenges in UN
Not able to ensure its original mandate peace
India China war India Pakistan war
 African wars
Reason Division in Ps

P2 P3
China US UK
Russia France

Introduction
Alfred Tennyson Poem The Passing of Arthur
When the
dying King Arthur is set on the
to take him to the netherworld
royal barge
The old order to new
changeth yielding place
And God
fulfils himself in many ways
Lest one good custom should corrupt the world

Meaning
A little doubt that world today is
at an inflection point

order will emerge

If history is any
whether
guide a new
The question is this will be born from the
ashes of a
debilitating was or through a
gradual
process of adjustment
 India believes in Jambudvipa mandala
Bharat varsha one petal
of four leafed
lotus

as we want to order through

bring
equality

reverse Chinese worldview Middle Kingdom

of
India advocates
for multipolarity in the contemporary
context
transcend the political
for India is to
The challenge
divisions in the subcontinent to restore its
cohesiveness make the borders increasingly irrelevant
India will reach out Io to Central Asian
from
neighbourhood as its economic security capabilities
expand

Us emerged
from the ravages of
war as the
most powerful economic
military power
Gave Marshall Plan for the reconstruction
of
Europe
Bretton words Conference IMF WB
1956 GATT
 2007
01 Global financial economic irises questions
were raised on liberal world is
us
hegemony
declined

What lessons does the history ofthe world since the

birth of Westphalian state system hold for us

A stable world order needs a

careful balance between
power legitimacy
The Westphalian multipolar
system
failed because the
whole
ofunder french domination
Napoleon bringing
ofEurope

Hegemony hubris ones

extension exhaustion
sometimes war

Asia the New World order Indo Pacific

over the past three decades Asia Pacific has
region
replaced the Atlantic as the centre of gravity of
the global economy
China 2nd
largest economy
Japan 3rd largest economy
 India t China fastest growing large economies
Major powers in Asia have managed to sustain
relative political stability social cohesion

can expand
influence in regional global
affairs
In Ppp terms India 3rd
largest economy
In nominal terms India 6th
largesteconomy

to become 5th
likely
Other substantial economy
South Korea t Australia t
Taiwan t ASEAN

The
reality of an Asian world order

Asia has become a in

now
key fulcrum ofpones
the world
No multipolar world order without multipolar Asia
An Asian hegemon will inevitably aspire to global
hegemony
us continues to be the most formidable
military
power in Asia
However its economic profile in the region has
diminished even as China has grown
However Chinese economy is
slowing
due to internal
global slowdown affairs
etc
China also remains a brittle policy
China's historical insularity is different from
today's cosmopolitanism
different culture

We are in
reality China centric Asia nor
neither in a

in a world destined to become China centric

The
multipolar world order
necessity
of
Rising challenges problems of global warming
health pandemics cybercrime etc
The with greaterglobal
emergence of new technologies
reach penetration makes such international
collaboration a compulsion
today
A
hegemonic world order constrain it

Neitherthe Chinese version national rejuvenation nor

of
American hopes for revivalism are realistic
Thomas friedman flat world in terms
powersharing of
China be to
accept a us dominated
may ready
western hemisphere
if it has conceded power over
Asia Pacific Central Asia

Us Chinese analysts suggest

analysts for
avoiding Thucydides Trap

through
new
type ofgreat power relation
India will never acceptjunior status in
league
Chinese centric world

A world order that suits India

Multipolar world order
we want
supportive peaceful stable international
environment
Promote participate incountervailing coalition
QUAD AUTOS be countervailing coalition
may
India possess civilizational attributes like Anekantvada
Vasudhaer Kutumbkam etc
Its culture is innately cosmopolitan
Embraces vast
diversity plurality
common
Being part of humanity

Scholarly views
David Malone Book Does the Elephant Dance
on Global burden sharing
India's economic success can increase if it thinks
how in what proportions it can share
global
burdens

Genuinely multipolar world system will help India

can use bilateral diplomacy
engage
in hedging strategy

International experts view

only the Indian Navy as
both a thepolitical
having developed strategy
support
Time are on India's side west is along
history
with us to counter China

Amb
Rajiv Sikri India is undoubtedly
very strategically
located at the crossroads Asia where five
intersect
of
arcs
Arc
of Growth prosperity
Arc
of instability turbulence
Arc
of energy
Are communications
of
Arc
of uncertainty
 India is not a mere balancer or swing state
but a leading state that seeks a place at the global
table
high
Shiv shankar Menon Choices
China wishes to be number one
I do believe that speak
softly carry a bigstick
is likely to be a more productive
policy for India
India should follow a variant
four character strategy
of
Deng's Twenty

As Bhishma said He who is silent secures the

following others the restrained one enjoys
of
everything in life
World order
Henry Kissinger Book
Britain's policy based the
security of India
on
the British naval
supremacy in the
Io

Lynchpin for regional order in south Asia will

be India
India's role in the world is complicated
 india Central Asia

Introduction
Halford John Mackinder Heartland theory CentralAsia
Influence Access trade routes in Eurasia
Resources
over number nations
of
CA is like a chessboard
Game plan represents
is location
strategy to win over opponents
a

New Great Game

of
Asian nations were once part Ussr
1991
of
C Asian nations become independent
CA India's extended neighbourhood
 Importance of CA
Mineral resources uranium petroleum Gold
natural etc
gas

reserves
largest uranium
Caspian sea
rich in oil deposits t
oil
hydropower capacity
4th largest Gold
Gas reserves
TAPI

between Asia
connectivity Bridge Europe
a INSTC
India joined Ashgabat Agreement TIR
convention

Trade investment potential

IT pharmaceuticals
tourism
 strong demand for Indian pharmaceuticals

Energy security
civil nuclear cooperation
2008 Kazakhstan supported India in obtaining India
specific exemption to allow nuclear cooperation with
NSG countries
2015 India Kazakhstan signed an to
agreement
purchase 5000 tonnes of Kazakh uranium
by 2019
Also signed a uranium supply agreement
with Uzbekistan

Geostrategic angle
PS
Raghavan follow Mandala Theory
CA our extended neighbourhood

strategic position using Chabahar Postof Iran

can bypass Pakistan to reach CA

only foreign military airbase India is in

of
farkhos Tajikistan

Security CA faces significant challenges due to

Golden Crescent Iran Pak Afghan illicit
 weapon trade
CA instability can
spill over to Kashmir
Religious extremism fundamentalism terrorism
pose threat

Historical evolution
Kushan Empire extended till ca
Ancient silk Route
Islam Sufism
following India's Independence we used Moscow's
route to engage with CA
1987 India established its only CA consulate
in Tashkent
After breakupof Soviet union
India provided financial aid
signed strategic Partnership Agreement 2014
with Kazakhstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan

for defence cooperation trade nations

Look North Policy promote stability
cooperation without causing harm to any
third country
CA
North

India
2012 India's connect Central Asia Policy

India could not maintain its momentum in

relations due to
Lack direct access
ofChinese
Rising access

of focus towards
Shifting Indo Pacific

2015 PM Modi visited all Asian countries

Eventually CA became the link that placed
Eurasia in New Delhi's zone of interest
C
RajaMohan India ca relations high octane
diplomacy

strengthening connectivity

Mou with Tran Chabahar post to connect

to CA
for
control China's ambitions
INST TAPI
 SO Indiagained permanent membership in 2017
SCO CA expect India to counteract
Through
increasing influence of China Russia in the
region

challenges
Landlocked region
weak connectivity
a
Chinese presence
spilloverof islamic radicalization xinjiang
issue debttrap diplomacyetc
Radicalism extremism
Domestic problems

youth bulge corruption drug trafficking

Autocratic succession
Close partners
India is marginal player currently
a
Poor economic relations

India's trade
90Bn with China
8 Bn with Russia
1.5 Bn with CA
in this Ibn is with Kazakhstan
Delays in projects
frustrated oil and
gas diplomacy in energy security
Act fast concentration in southeast East
policy
Asia
Dilemma between maritime continental
policy

Act East CA

Efforts by India to Enhance

engagement in the CA

Look North Policy

connect Central Asia Policy
India CA dialogue
Connectivity
Development partnership under High Impact
Community Development Projects
India CA Business council

Multilateral Engagement
Regional connectivity
Customs convention
Need to match diplomacy with action
multilateral
Platforms for cooperation
India Eurasian Economic Union Eto
SCO
 Chance to work with other leaders

India CA security partnership

Tajikistan India provided anti Taliban Northern Alliance

in Afghanistan rooted through Tajikistan

long term military training by India

military cooperation has been significant but limited
Tashkent has been arms supplies
6 78
Ilyushin from Uzbekistan
Modi's visit in 2015
Bilateral exercise Khanjar with Kyrgyzstan
military
Kazakhstan Prabal Dostyk KAZIND
India to strengthen its relation
opportunity for
with CA soo
through

Afghanistan factor in India LA relations

Afghanistan will shape the relation with CA

Enabler
of India's objective of cooperation
with CA
Harsh v Pant Developments in have
Afghanistan
economic
catalyzed new geostrategic geo
concerns
for the region
 unstable Afghanistan could
consequences of
an

become a haven
for radical extremists
terror
groups
Afghan conflict spill over to ca concern
may
for India
opium cultivation drug smuggling

India has joint working groups on counter

terrorism with Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan

forward
way
a India must increase its Developmental humanitarian
aid
use of smart
diplomacy
Sco is a crucial grouping for India ca relation
Need coordination despite challenges
of
India
Long
way for
conclusion
Rhea Menon
Sharanya Rajiv Geography
has
placed CA at the nexus crucial political
of
economic transformation
for centuries
with actualization China's BRI India's connect
of
CA policy EU's new CA
strategy the 21st
century could possibly be the most decisive period
for the region
India's rationale behind joining soo
Refer the Crux

Questions