Grand supercycle

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Proposed economic wavesCycle/wave name Period (years)

Kitchin cycle (inventory, e.g. pork cycle) 3–5

Juglar cycle (fixed investment) 7–11

Kuznets swing (infrastructural investment) 15–25

 Kondratiev wave (technological basis) 45–60

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ve
The
wave Grand
been
advance
terpretation
and the startSupercycle
principle,
reevaluated
hadthat
is originally
started
now andthe
it may is
clarified
conceived
thebeen
considered
in have longest
Unitedto using
and
period,
States
be larger
the1789,formulated
third
stock
or or
historical
when wave,
even
market
stockby
the in
Ralph
financial
theGrand
infifth
market
1857 growth
Nelson
anddata
dataranofsets
Elliott.
a the
Supercycle
began
to financial
inyear
to the
beElliott
works
wave.
[1]
market
recorded.
1928,
[1]
of[2]
speculated
as described
A.
However,
but J.acknowledged
Frost
that aand
theseGrand
byR.R.
theanother
Supercycle
Elliott
Prechter,
assignments ha-
in-
Like
neration
all Elliott
of waveswaves,
are those
Grand of Supercycle
Supercycle waves
larger degree spanning millennial periods of time. degree. [2]
areModern
subdividedapplications
into smaller
of the
generations
Wave Principle
of waves.
also The
describe
next smaller
waves of
ge-
and
Modern
should[3]
application
be followed
of Elliott
by a corrective
wave theory
price
posits
pattern
thatofa Grand
declineSupercycle
that will represent
wave five
theislargest
completing
economic
in therecession
21st century
since
the 1700s.
In 50
of technical
to 60 years,
analysis,
but Grand
these are
Supercycles
in detail distinct
and Supercycles
concepts. are often compared to the Kondratiev wave, which is a cycle
Possible Elliott wave position of world stock markets [edit]

Some [4] [5][6] stocks started in

1987. Elliott
Whenwave
that analysts believe
was proven that aitGrand
incorrect Supercycle
was later revised bear
to bemarket in US
2000 and thenand European
2006.
During
Elliott
as [7][8]
herthis Wave
new
2006–2007
Elliott high
analysts
Wave wasthe
merely
asDow
analystsindicating
Jones
a nominal
believe Industrial
thatnew
this new
2000–2002
high
Average
high toinbewas
US reached
dollars,
not the
'phony'. abeginning
and
newnot
all-time
a new
of ahigh,
high
Grandwhich
when
Supercycle
measured
has been
bear
interpreted
in market.
ounces of
However,
bygold
someot-
Expectation of economic recession [edit]

whether
A
percycle
tedly
October
The
bles
to
the
lapse
Well,
kets
cal
They
king
controversial
the
response.
credit
credit
have
are
for
stated
always
faster
the
dollar
telegraphing
the
2006
they
will
hyperinflation
always
bubble.
bubble:
as
that
country.
value
get
Ikeep
take
interview,
soon
mean
issue
the
reelected
imploded.
And
the
of
the
as
collapse
Anyway,
these
credit
deflation,
is
form
Federal
fact
bond
some
whether
part
when
so
people
that
of
instruments.
The
holders
people
is
will
they're
either
to
Reserve
asked
awe
and
the
amount
pure
save
take
indo
I'm[7]
say,
realize
severe
aCongress
doing
toguess
not
their
the
deflationary
System
very
make
"Well,
So
ofhave
form
that
own
economic
dollars
that's
in
based
confident
his
my
are
currency
or
of
they
correctly.
skins
case
what
not,
aso
view
on
out
depression
deflationary
can
irresponsible
politics.
recession
Ifor
and
about
there
they
think
the
print
inflation
Ideflation
say,
mean,
Fed
were
that
that.
the
money."
It
or"Let's
accompanying
ishas
depression
are
most
adoing.
it's
as
Hyperinflation
utterly
–hyperinflationary
and
nothing
much
greenbacks
except
working
print,
likely
Fine,
the
There's
powerless
askey
let's
to
probably
that
to
thing
we
for
themselves
the
do
factors
no
get
–have
would
to
them
actual
with
termination
isway
the
me
toperiod.
that
followed
credit
prevent
that
as
reading
machines
is
just
out
cash
they
individuals
going
and
supported
of
make
Robert
inflation.
–will
their
it.
the
of
by
markets.
is
toSo
the
going
the
hyperinflation.
minuscule
ultimate
turn
be
families,
Prechter
that's
current
but
credit
the
it,
And
toand
Prechter
Inatural
it's
the
think
the
credit
deflation
bubble
print
of
Grand
has
not
compared
Treasury,
argument.
course.
the
wor-
repea-
politi-
said:
bub-
those
Incol-
mar-
Su-
an
of
greenbacks and spread them around."
Controversy [edit]

Many controversies surround the concept of the Grand Supercycle:

Stock
notion
ket
dology
prices,
transactions
of
is the
scientifically
andGrand
laterdid
U.S.
Supercycle
not
robust.
stock
occurmarket
was
during
thus
prices,
the
implied
first
as years
the
by U.S.
R.ofN.the
economy
Elliott
Unitedbysurpassed
States
linkingand
together
the
price
U.K.
data
gold
It is
isprices,
not
thusclear
not
British
available.
that this
stockmetho-
The
mar-
tation needed]
The hypothesized
cannot exist. Followers
GrandofSupercycle
Saeculum is
Theory
conjectured
take this
to view
span more
and align
timeinstead
than a human
around life,
a belief
which
thatsome
defined means it[ci-
say sequences
of generations Therelearn
Saeculum
approximately
might mapthe to the
same
Kondratiev
lessons ascycle.
their forebears. Similar ideas can be found in the Bible.
The idea
past
Fischer's
riodic
learning
mistakes,
crises
isof
Theoccurring.
ainGrand
Great
or
human
become
Wave
Supercycle
history
self-aware
(Oxford
arebear
becoming
University
in
market
a macro-economic
steadily
may
Press,
be 1999),
interpreted
less volatile,
sense.
however,
toThe
which
suggest
presents
historical
suggests
thatamankind
study
meticulously
thatpresented
some
willkind
never
argued
inofDavid
learn
species-wide
casefrom
Hackett
that the
its pe-

See also [edit]

Business cycle
David Hackett Fischer
Economic cycles
Market trends

Notes [edit]

ab
1º Works
^ JumpofupR.N.
to: Elliott. New
Elliott, Classics
R.N. (1980) Library. p. 56.Wave Principle". In Prechter, R.R. (ed.). The Major
[1938]. "The
ab
2º vior.
^ JumpJohn
up Wiley and Sons.
to: Alfred 8 February
John 2001.
Frost, Robert ISBN 0-471-98849-9.
Rougelot Prechter, ElliottChapter 5, Figure 5-4
Wave Principle: Key to Market Beha-
^ Robert
3º 6. Chapters
R. 2Prechter,
&5 Jr., At the Crest of the Tidal Wave. John Wiley and Sons. 1997. ISBN 0-471-97954-
^ Norris,
4º mes. Retrieved
FloydMay
(February
4, 2010.
6, 1989). "Market Place; 2 Theorists Split On Elliott Wave". The New York Ti-
^ Robert
5º John Wiley
R.and
Prechter,
Sons. Jr.,
2002.
Conquer
ISBN 0-470-87090-7.
the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression.
^ Robert R. Prechter,
6º 932750-55-9. PreviewJr., View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle. New Classics Library. 2003. ISBN 0-
 ab
7º Machine
^ Jump upand
to:transcript
Robert Archived 2008-12-22
R. Prechter, at the Wayback
Jr. FinancialSense Machine
interview Archived 2015-11-07 at the Wayback
8º ^ Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Tim W. Wood interview Archived 2011-07-21 at the Wayback Machine
References [edit]

The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History (2000) ISBN 0-19-505377-X
Korotayev,
Kuznets
sis. Structure
Swings,
Andrey
andJuglar
Dynamics.
V., &and
Tsirel,
Kitchin
Vol.4.
Sergey
#1.
Cycles
P.3-57.
V.(2010).
in Global
A Spectral
Economic
Analysis
Development,
of Worldand
GDPtheDynamics:
2008–2009Kondratieff
Economic Waves,
Cri-
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