Enhanced Pavement Design and Analysis Framework To Improve The Resiliency of Flexible Airfield Pavements - 2023 - SAGE Publications LTD
Enhanced Pavement Design and Analysis Framework To Improve The Resiliency of Flexible Airfield Pavements - 2023 - SAGE Publications LTD
Abstract
Changes in climatic conditions can directly affect pavement performance. However, accounting for environmental factors in
airport pavement design remains a challenge since design methods such as FAA rigid and flexible iterative elastic layered
design (FAARFIELD) do not consider moisture and temperature variation as input. Therefore, to address this research gap
and improve the resilience of airport pavements, this research proposes a new methodology for the structural design of flex-
ible airport pavements. The proposed methodology in this research was applied to a case study of an international airport in
Canada, using actual field data. Five scenarios were evaluated including the current climate, temperature increase, lower
matric suction, and two flooding events. The results of the proposed design method showed that the traditional FAARFIELD
analysis can possibly overestimate fatigue damage, and underestimate rutting damage. The outcomes showed that climate
change can increase pavement damage and shorten the service life from 7 to 14 years in the scenarios evaluated. It was also
concluded that the lowering of the matric suction can result in the highest damage levels. Considering the implications of cli-
mate change on transportation infrastructure, the proposed methodology can contribute to designing more resilient airport
pavements in the future, since it accounts for climate variations, temperature, and moisture changes, as well as extreme
events such as flooding over the design life of flexible airport pavements.
Keywords
flexible airfield pavements, pavement design, climate change, cumulative damage factor, resilient pavements
Structural design of airport pavements mainly relies on          structure can carry, and each aircraft wheel coverage
the properties of pavement materials, loading conditions,        then contributes to the cumulative damage factor (CDF)
subgrade soil strength, structural configuration, the            based on Miner’s law.
selected pavement failure models, and the ambient condi-            According to Miner’s law, pavement damage can be
tions (1). Accounting for the ambient conditions, how-           defined as the ratio of the actual number of traffic load
ever, can be challenging, since the common design                repetitions over the allowable number of load repetitions
practices do not consider the variation in climate-related       (number of coverages) that a pavement structure can
parameters such as temperature and moisture level as an          carry (3). Because of aircraft wander, the number of cov-
input for design practices (2). Failure models (aka dam-         erages can differ from the number of passes, and for that
age models) are equations used to convert pavement
mechanistic responses into pavement distresses with the
                                                                 1
goal of quantifying the damage. To obtain the structural           Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
responses of flexible pavements, most computer pro-              Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
                                                                 2
                                                                   McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
grams use the layered elastic design (LED) approach.
The failure models in the link the computed structural           Corresponding Author:
responses to the number of coverages a pavement                  Paula Sutherland Rolim Barbi, [email protected]
Barbi et al                                                                                                                 119
the layer thicknesses if CDF is greater than 1 and repeat-                     properties (i.e., albedo, emissivity, and absorption coeffi-
ing the process until the cumulative damage equals                             cients). The climatic, meteorological, and surface albedo
100%. These steps will be further discussed in the follow-                     data were retrieved from the National Solar Radiation
ing sections, accompanied by the results of a case study                       Database (NSRDB), which is available to the public for
that is analyzed under different climate change scenarios.                     free. Then, the temperature gradient was calculated
The flowchart in Figure 2 summarizes these steps.                              through the finite control volume method (10). To this
                                                                               end, temperature estimate model for pavement structures
                                                                               (TEMPS) software was utilized. This aspect covers the
Hourly Climatic Data and Pavement Temperature                                  first two steps of the proposed methodology and provides
Profile                                                                        the foundation for the next steps.
Although most of the existing airfield pavement practices
rely on the simplified temperature and stiffness scenarios,
the modern computational power capability allows
                                                                               Asphalt Concrete and Subgrade Modulus
researchers to utilize more accurate and realistic climate                     Step 3 of the proposed methodology focuses on AC and
and climate-dependent parameters. To determine the                             subgrade modulus determination. The stiffness of the
stiffness of each pavement layer throughout the year, first                    layers, combined with the definition of the aircraft fleet
it is necessary to estimate the pavement temperature pro-                      mix, the layer thickness, and the design life, are a crucial
file. Understanding the temperature gradient at different                      part in a solution process that can incorporate climate
depths throughout the year can be useful to determine                          parameters. This study aims to include the temperature
the state of pavement subgrade (i.e., frozen, thawed, or                       dependency aspect of the pavement materials in the anal-
unfrozen), as well as the temperature of the AC across                         ysis to improve the currently used constant or single-
the year. The input parameters used for calculating the                        value modulus values. To determine the dynamic modu-
temperature profile included the climatic data (i.e., air                      lus of the AC, the modified Witczak’s sigmoidal function
temperature and wind speed), solar radiation as the                            was used (11). The main model inputs are the loading
meteorological data, and pavement surface radiation                            rate, temperature, binder performance grade (PG), and
Barbi et al                                                                                                                  121
volumetric design information. The effect of loading rate            The recovery period (TR ) depends mainly on the per-
can be estimated considering a sinusoidal loading, with           centage of fines and the soil plasticity index (PI), and ref-
frequency f , to represent the cyclic application of              erence values can be found
                                                                                              in
                                                                                                 the MEPDG manual. The
dynamic loads on pavements. The duration of the load              resilient modulus ratio     MR
                                                                                                     at any given time is defined
                                                                                             MRopt
on a pavement depends on the aircraft speed, s, and the
tire contact radius, a (12).                                      according to Equation 4:
    On the other hand, to determine the variations in the
                                                                         MR                     ba
resilient modulus of the subgrade soil with time, this             log         =a+         b                  ð4Þ
research proposes a similar approach to the MEPDG, in                    MRopt     1 + EXP ln a + km 3 S  Sopt
which an environmental adjustment factor (Fenv ) is used          in which a, b and km are parameters that depend on the
to modify the optimum resilient modulus (MRopt ) of the           soil gradation, and S  Sopt is the variation in degree of
soil according to variations in moisture and temperature.         saturation from the optimum condition, expressed in
The resilient modulus at any given period can be                  decimal. If ground water levels are stable and there are
expressed by Equation 1 (13).                                     no significant cracks in the AC layer, it can be said that
                                                                  the saturation S is essentially at a state of equilibrium,
                     MR = Fenv 3 MRopt                     ð1Þ
                                                                  unless freezing or thaw recovery is in progress. The equi-
The Fenv factor adjusts the optimal resilient modulus for         librium degree of saturation Sequil is a function of the soil
three main conditions: (1) frozen materials (Ff ); (2)            matric suction ðhÞ. The matric suction can be defined as
thawed materials recovering to an equilibrium state (Fr );        the capillary pressure of the soil (i.e., ua  uw , where ua
(3) unfrozen, fully recovered materials or materials that         is the pore-air pressure and uw is the pore water pres-
were never frozen (Fu ). The frozen adjustment factor (Ff )       sure). The relationship between the soil suction and the
is a function of the frozen resilient modulus MRfrz and the       degree of saturation can be depicted by the soil-water
optimum resilient modulus, according to Equation 2.               characteristic curve (SWCC).
                                                                     The unfrozen adjustment factor (Fu ) is used when the
                               MRfrz                              soil is fully recovered from thawing. It takes place when
                        FF =                               ð2Þ
                               MRopt                              recovery ratio RR.1, which happens when the number
                                                                  of hours elapsed since thawing started (Dt) is greater than
The recovering adjustment factor (Fr ) accounts for the           the number of hours required for the material to recover
decrease in the resilient modulus when the soil is thawed,        (TR ). In this case, Fu = MMRoptR
                                                                                                    , according to Equation 4,
and the recover in the soil resistance that happens as the        and S = Sequil ; that is, the saturation is at equilibrium.
soil drains. Therefore, Fr is a function of the reduction            As an example, after a flooding event, the water table
factor (RF), the recovery
                            ratio (RR), and the soil resilient   level is elevated, and most of the layers can reach satura-
modulus ratio MMRoptR
                        , in which MR is the resilient modu-      tion levels of 100%. As the water drains out of the pave-
lus at a given time after the soil has thawed. The soil RF        ment structure, the matric suction is raised until it
can be estimated according to the soil gradation and the          reaches its normal suction levels. The damage incurred
plasticity index, and reference values can be found in the        during the immediate post flooding period (IPFP) can be
MEPDG manual. The RR is a function of the number of               conceptually defined according to Equation 5 (14);
hours elapsed since the beginning of thawing (Dt) and the
number of hours required for the material to recover                                         ðT
(TR ), according to Equation 3.                                                    DIPFP =        DfLðtÞ, hðtÞgdt            ð5Þ
                                                                                              0
                               Dt
                          RR =                             ð3Þ    in which LðtÞ is the traffic load and hðtÞ is the matric suc-
                               TR
                                                                  tion level at a specific time t. It is not possible to find a
The number of hours elapsed since thawing started (Dt)            continuous function that would translate the continuous
can be processed using a monthly-basis approach and               recovery of the matric suction; therefore, Equation 5 can
translated into a normalized function based on the mean           be adjusted by considering the soil suction to increase
value and standard deviation of each month. The Dt dis-           into discrete intervals of time and have one single record
tribution curves are then divided into five sub-seasons,          of the matric suction and the respective traffic-load at
representing 20% of the frequency distribution.                   each interval
Therefore, Dt records corresponding to the standard nor-             Evidence shows that the wet-dry cycle does not
mal deviates of 21.2816, 20.5244, 0, 0.5244, and 1.2816           adversely affect subgrade stiffness, that is, the strength of
are determined, which correlate to 10, 30, 50, 70 and             the subgrade soil can recover after a flood if it is given
90% accumulated frequencies within a given period,                enough time to dry (14). Therefore, this research consid-
respectively.                                                     ered that the resilient modulus of the subgrade fully
122                                                                                                 Transportation Research Record 2677(8)
recovers after the water from flooding is completely                        top of the subgrade, eh = critical horizontal tensile
drained, and the pavement returns to its equilibrium                        strain at the bottom of the AC layer; S = flexural stiff-
degree of saturation.                                                       ness of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) mix from the labora-
                                                                            tory fatigue testing (MPa); AV = the air voids of
                                                                            mixture (%); Vb = the asphalt content by volume;
Pavement Responses, Coverages, Coverage-to-Pass                             PNMS = the percent of aggregate passing the nominal
Ratio, and CDF                                                              maximum size sieve; PPCS = the percent of aggregate
This section explains steps 5, 6 and 7 of the proposed                      passing the primary control sieve; and P200 = the per-
methodology by presenting some of the available tools                       cent of aggregate smaller than 75 mm.
to obtain the pavement responses, introducing how pave-                        Since the number of coverages can differ from the
ment responses are connected to the number of cov-                          number of passes because of aircraft wander, a C/P ratio
erages, how to estimate the C/P, and last, by showing the                   needs to be computed. The C/P ratio can be defined as
procedures to calculate cumulative damage because of                        the probability that any part of the effective tire width
rutting and fatigue.                                                        covers the center point of a given strip, as presented in
    Flexible pavement design codes typically use the LED                    Equation 8 (17):
approach for its structural analysis (1), however, advances
in knowledge about materials behavior and computer tech-                                  X Nt      weq             weq 
nology have greatly increased the interest in numerical tech-                  ðC=PÞi =        P xi        ł xk ł xi +               ð8Þ
                                                                                          k =1
                                                                                                       2                 2
niques, such as the finite element method. Some of the
available LED-based tools for the structural analysis of                    where Nt = number of tires for the gear; xi = lateral
pavements are: KENLAYER, CHEVRON, DAMA,                                     distance from centerline to the midpoint of strip i; xk =
ELSYM5, BISAR, EVERSTRESS, and NonPAS. The                                  lateral distance from centerline of the runway or taxiway
mechanistic-empirical design of airport pavements is an                     to the centerline of tire k; weq = effective tire width. Up
iterative process, which may require several iterations until               to version 1.4, FAARFIELD design procedure would
the optimal design is found. Although more sophisticated                    account for the effect of aircraft gears in tandem as part
techniques can potentially improve the accuracy of the mod-                 of the C/P ratio computation, in which the tandem factor
eling, the required computation time and cost to obtain the                 was computed as a straight-line interpolation between
necessary input parameters can be an obstacle. Therefore,                   the number of wheels in tandem (for shallow structures)
selection of the right modeling tool to use in the design pro-              and unity (for deep structures). This procedure, however,
cess for flexible pavements will be a trade-off depending on                has changed in the most recent versions of
the nature of the analysis and level of accuracy targeted.                  FAARFIELD, and the cumulative damage caused by an
    Airport pavement transfer functions connect pave-                       aircraft mix is now defined according to Equations 9
ment responses to the number of coverages that the                          and 10 (18).
pavement can carry. Coverages can be defined as the
number of repetitions of the maximum strain before fail-                                             m  
                                                                                                     X  C
ure. The number of coverages to rutting failure is defined                                CDFi =                3 PA 3 DðyiÞ          ð9Þ
in FAARFIELD 1.41 by a bilinear model (Equation 6)                                                   A=1
                                                                                                           P
(15) and fatigue failure is defined based on the ratio of
                                                                                                        X
                                                                                                        n
                                                                                                                         1
dissipated energy change (RDEC) model (Equation 7)                                           DðyiÞ =           sk 3                  ð10Þ
(16).                                                                                                   k =1
                                                                                                                      C ðek Þ
Case Study: Pearson Airport                                              about 452,800 flights were handled (19). In 2020 and
                                                                         2021 the number of flights decreased drastically because
Toronto Pearson International Airport is the main inter-
                                                                         of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in 32,899 and
national airport serving Toronto, its metropolitan area,
                                                                         6,383 flights in 2020 and 2021 respectively. It is believed
and its surrounding region. It has 5 runways and several
                                                                         that the number of flights will resume its normal levels in
taxiways interconnecting the airport. The soil classification
                                                                         the next few years, and Toronto Pearson Airport will
was based on the borehole data provided by the Greater
                                                                         continue to grow in the long term. For this reason, the
Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA), which indicates that
                                                                         traffic information used in this analysis will be based on
the predominant subgrade material is a Sandy Lean Clay
                                                                         the total operations in 2019, and the growth predictions
with Gravel with a low to moderate frost susceptibility.
                                                                         will be based on the airport master plan published in
The subgrade soil composition includes 8.8% of gravel,
                                                                         2018 (20). The airport master plan predicts that takeoffs
29% of sand, 32.5% of silt and 29.7% of clay. Further
                                                                         and landings will grow at a rate that ranges from 1.13%
details of the subgrade soil is provided in Table 1, such as
                                                                         to 1.5%. Considering the impact of the COVID-19 pan-
the plastic and liquid limit, the plasticity index, the percent
                                                                         demic, the authors assumed the lowest growth rate pre-
passing sieve #200 ðp200 Þ, the grain size corresponding to
                                                                         diction of 1.13%.
60% passing by weight (D60 ) and the California Bearing
                                                                             An airport runway design is greatly influenced by the
Ratio (CBR) value. The optimum resilient modulus of the
                                                                         type of aircrafts serving an airport. To perform the struc-
subgrade soil was calculated based on the CBR results pro-
                                                                         tural design of a runway, first it is necessary to define the
vided by the GTAA and equals 51.71 MPa.
                                                                         aircraft fleet mix, that is, the percentage of aircraft, by
   In relation to aircraft traffic in 2019, 50.5 million pas-
                                                                         type or category, that operate at the airport. Runway 05-
sengers travelled through Toronto Pearson Airport and
                                                                         23, managing 45% of the aircraft operations, is the busi-
                                                                         est runway in the airport (21). The aircraft fleet mix pro-
Table 1. Subgrade Properties at Pearson                                  posed was developed based on the traffic data records
                                                                         from 2019, according to data provided by the GTAA
Soil type                                  Sandy lean clay with gravel   and is presented in Table 2.
Plastic limit                                         17.2%                  It is a common practice to consider the aircraft wheel
Liquid limit                                          29.6%              load to have a circular contact area with a flexible pave-
Plasticity index                                       12.4              ment. FAARFIELD, however, defines the wheel contact
p200                                                  62.1%              as elliptical, following the guidelines given by Huang (22),
D60                                                 0.066 mm
CBR                                                     5%
                                                                         in which the contact length is about 1.6 times longer than
                                                                         the contact width. Table 3 presents the loading characteris-
Note: CBR = California Bearing Ratio.                                    tics of the B777-300 ER is the most critical aircraft in the
Source: Provided by Greater Toronto Airport Authority.                   mix because it causes the highest damage to the pavement.
Table 2. Traffic Inputs: Annual Growth of 1.13% Used to Calculate Total Departures
Gross taxi          Tire            Percent             Dual tire      Tandem tire    Tire contact   Tire contact    Tire contact
weight (kg)    pressure (kPa)    weight on gear       spacing (mm)    spacing (mm)    width (mm)     length (mm)     area (mm2)
Table 4. Input Parameters to Estimate Asphalt Concrete Dynamic Modulus Master Curve
Parameter f (Hz) Va (%) Vbeff (%) r34 (%) r38 (%) r4 (%) r200 (%)
Existing Runway Structure and Materials                              pre-set in the program of 1,379 MPa (i.e., 200,000
According to the GTAA, the pavement structure from a                 pounds per square inch (psi)). The manual affirms that
typical flexible runway in Toronto Pearson Airport consists          this modulus was conservatively chosen and corresponds
of three layers, namely an AC layer of 125 mm thickness,             to a pavement temperature of approximately 32°C (24),
followed by a granular base of 300 mm and a granular sub-            therefore, the software considers that the pavement stiff-
base of 900 mm. The materials have similar characteristics           ness would perform as it was under 32°C all year long.
to the standard materials from FAARFIELD.                            Therefore, the modified Witczak model was used to cal-
    According to Steward (23) and GTAA information in                culate a modulus that would be more coherent with the
2021, the overall pavement thickness of Toronto Airport              AC described in the previous section. This was achieved
runways has not been updated since 1993, and the runways             using the mix gradation parameters, PG, initial air voids,
were designed for the critical aircraft is the one that causes       effective asphalt content, aircraft characteristics such as
the highest damage to the pavement among the aircraft fleet          tire pressure, weight and speed, and lastly, temperature.
mix at the time, which was the B747-400. It is expected that         The resulting modulus of the hot mix asphalt at 32°C
newer aircrafts such as the B777- 200LR/300ER, A340-500/             was therefore found to be 1,721 MPa, which is 25%
600, and A380 are all more critical for the determination of         higher than the standard AC stiffness used in
a suitable pavement structure, and that failure to improve           FAARFIELD.
the pavement structure will result in reduced service life.              The required data for the design in FAARFIELD
    The AC mix used in this research was collected at                consists of the soil resilient modulus or CBR, the layer
Toronto Pearson International Airport and analyzed in the            materials, and traffic, all of which were defined in the
Centre for Pavement and Transportation Technology                    previous sections. Table 5 presents the thickness of the
(CPATT) (9). The binder was a PG 70-28J, and the mix                 pavement layers for a design life of 20 years, as well as
binder content was 5.2%. The percentage air voids of the             the modulus and Poisson ratio attributed in
mix were found to be 3.9% and the voids in mineral aggre-            FAARFIELD.
gate (VMA) were 16.5%. The original binder viscosity at                  The pavement design in FAARFIELD shows the
77ºC was calculated as 0.93 cPoise. A summary of the input           need for a more robust structure than that currently in
required to calculate the dynamic modulus of the mix is pre-         place, since when maintaining the base and sub-base
sented in Table 4. In this table, f is the loading rate, Va is       layer thickness constant, the AC was 179 mm thicker
the air void content, Vbeff is the effective binder content,         than the present layer. The CDF results demonstrate
and r34 , r38 , r4 represent the cumulative percent retained         that the B777-300 ER airplane contributes about 99% of
on standard sieves #3/4, #3/8, and #4, respectively, and r200        the rutting damage, while the B787-900 contributed 1%,
represents the percent passing through sieve #200. The gran-         and the rest of the mix made a negligible contribution to
ular materials were assumed to have similar characteristics          the rutting damage. Table 6 presents the cumulative rut-
to the standard materials from FAARFIELD, therefore,                 ting and fatigue CDF of the aircraft fleet mix from
The base characteristics were defined according to the P-209         FAARFIELD, and its respective pass to coverage ratio
FAA standard material and the sub-base according to the              (the inverse of C/P).
P-154 FAA standard material.
                                                                     Validation of Python Codes
FAARFIELD Design
                                                                     The equations described in the methodology section to
The hot mix asphalt standard material in FAARFIELD                   calculate rutting and fatigue damage were implemented
is the P-401/403. This material has a fixed modulus value            in Python codes, developed by the authors. To verify the
Barbi et al                                                                                                                                        125
Note: FAARFIELD = FAA rigid and flexible iterative elastic layered design; HMA = Hot Mix Asphalt; na = not applicable.
Aircraft Rutting CDF contribution Rutting P/C ratio Fatigue CDF contribution Fatigue P/C ratio
Note: CDF = cumulative damage factor; P/C = Pass to coverage; FAARFIELD = FAA rigid and flexible iterative elastic layered design.
damage codes, the authors calculated the CDF caused                            the simulated pavement elements which prevents it from
by the B777-300 ER under the same circumstances con-                           moving in the horizontal direction but leaves it free to
sidered in FAARFIELD. The first part of the verifica-                          move in the vertical direction. The bottom of the sub-
tion process was to certify that the P/C values for the                        grade element was constrained from any movement. This
B777-300 ER were the same as those presented in Table                          type of boundary condition is usually imposed to repre-
6 (i.e., 1.04 for rutting and 0.72 for fatigue). To that end,                  sent the confinement of the soil. Figure 3 shows the sub-
the aircraft wander was defined as 178.8 cm, the lateral                       grade divided in half for a better perspective (ZY view),
distance from the centerline of the runway to the center-                      with model contours/lines in deformed shape, colors rep-
line between the tires was considered to be 548.5 cm, and                      resenting the compressive strains scale.
other aircraft characteristics were defined according to                           The results of maximum compressive strains at the
Table 3, which resulted in P/C values of 1.036 and 0.716                       top of the subgrade layer and maximum tensile strains at
for rutting and fatigue, respectively. The P/C values                          the bottom of the AC layer for both ABAQUS and
resulting from the Python codes, when rounded, are                             KENLAYER are presented in Table 7.
essentially equal to FAARFIELD.                                                    The results for compressive strains at the top of the
   The same structural conditions defined in Table 5 were                      subgrade layer were very similar for both KENLAYER
used to obtain stresses and strains through KENLAYER                           and ABAQUS, with almost no difference between the
(circular tire contact) and ABAQUS (circular and ellipti-                      strain for circular and elliptical contact areas (0.15% dif-
cal tire contacts). The model in ABAQUS was built using                        ference). However, the tensile strains at the bottom of
an 8 cm mesh near the loads and a 30 cm mesh in the rest                       the AC layer exhibited a considerable difference of about
of the model; the contact between layers was defined as                        28% between the two models with circular contact area
rough, and the model dimensions were 12 3 12 m wide,                           from KENLAYER and ABAQUS. The difference in ten-
by 13.504 m deep (the subgrade being 12 m deep). A                             sile strain values between the circular and elliptical foot-
boundary condition was defined at the lateral walls of                         prints in ABAQUS was about 2.5%.
126                                                                                        Transportation Research Record 2677(8)
Figure 3. Compressive strains at subgrade in ABAQUS: (a) model contours and (b) compressive strains scale.
Software Tire contact Compressive strain at subgrade top (micro-strains) Tensile strain at AC bottom (micro-strains)
                                                                    Climate Analysis
Figure 4. Rutting damage at validation phase.                       As temperature and saturation changes through the year,
                                                                    so does the stiffness of the materials. The first step in
                                                                    performing an analysis that considers climate variations
   FAARFIELD uses LED to obtain the pavement criti-                 throughout the year is to estimate the pavement tem-
cal strains. Generally, when LED is used for flexible               perature gradient along the pavement depth. To that
pavement design, it is assumed that each tire has a circu-          end, hourly climate data from the past 10 years was
lar contact area, because of the axisymmetric nature of             retrieved from the National Solar Radiation Database,
the LED. FAARFIELD, however, considers the contact                  for the years 2010 through 2019, and averaged. The data
area to be elliptical. Most of the existing LED-based pro-          obtained included the air temperature, wind speed, solar
grams only allow for modeling a circular contact area,              radiance and albedo at the Toronto Pearson Airport site.
and therefore KENLAYER was used in this study. The                  To determine the pavement temperature gradient, the
critical pavement responses were then used to estimate              finite control volume method was used through TEMPS.
the number of coverages to failure. The CDF was calcu-                 The material properties necessary to calculate the
lated based on 68,027 B777-300 ER departures in a 20-               pavement temperature profile include the conductivity
year design period. The results of the cumulative rutting           and density, which were extracted from the existing liter-
damage over the design period can be seen in Figure 4.              ature (25), as well as the material colors and specific heat
   As previously mentioned, FAARFIELD attributed a                  capacity, which were defined according to typical values
cumulative damage of 0.99 for the B777-300 ER over the              suggested by the TEMPS software. The pavement
Barbi et al                                                                                                                     127
Material type Identifier color Specific heat capacity (J/kg°K) Conductivity (W/m°K) Density (kg/m3)
Table 9. Monthly Surface Albedo                                        elapsed since thawing started (Dt) along the pavement
                                                                       depth, and subsequently, to calculate the environmental
Month         Albedo      Month        Albedo   Month     Albedo       adjustment factor (Fenv ) per sub-season. Fenv multiplied
January         0.72       May          0.16    Sept        0.16       by the subgrade optimum resilient modulus resulted in
Feb             0.75       June         0.16    Oct         0.16       the seasonal subgrade resilient modulus. The resilient
March           0.41        July        0.17    Nov         0.27       modulus of the AC and subgrade per sub-season are pre-
April           0.20      August        0.16    Dec         0.51       sented in Table 10.
                                                                          At this point, the critical pavement responses could be
                                                                       calculated through KENLAYER, considering the change
                                                                       in the resilient modulus of the AC and subgrade layers at
                                                                       each sub-season. The responses enabled the calculation
                                                                       of the number of coverages to failure, and consequently
                                                                       the estimation of the cumulative rutting and fatigue dam-
                                                                       ages. The same steps proposed in this section were fol-
                                                                       lowed to evaluate five climate scenarios including: (1)
                                                                       current climate; (2) temperature increase; (3) lower matric
                                                                       suction; (4) flooding event 1, and (5) flooding event 2.
                                                                       Climate Scenarios
                                                                       Current Climate
                                                                       The current climate scenario considers the hourly tem-
                                                                       perature records from 2010 to 2019, and the matric suc-
                                                                       tion as 293 kPa. A comparison of the rutting and fatigue
                                                                       damage caused by a B777-300 ER is presented at Figures
Figure 5. Pavement temperature profile from temperature                6 and 7, considering the proposed methodology versus
estimate model for pavement structures (TEMPS).                        FAARFIELD. Figures 6a and 7a illustrate the damage
                                                                       at the end of one year while Figures 6b and 7b show the
                                                                       estimated damage at the end of 20 years.
material properties are presented in Table 8. The surface                 It is possible to notice from Figure 6a that the most
albedo was obtained through the NSRDB and averaged                     significant rutting damage occurs during sub-seasons 20
per month, as presented in Table 9. Lastly, emissivity                 to 30, which are equivalent to the months of May and
and absorption were both considered to be 0.93.                        June. The total damage caused by the B777-300 ER over
   The pavement temperature gradient was generated                     the 20-year period is 1.55, compared to 0.99 from
based on a mesh of 1 cm. The results from TEMPS are                    FAARFIELD, therefore, the rutting damage predicted
presented in Figure 5.                                                 from the proposed methodology is 57% higher than the
   Figure 5 indicates that the maximum temperature at a                predicted damage from FAARFIELD. From the results
depth of 1 cm is 44°C and that the temperature at deeper               of Figure 6b it is suggested that current climate assump-
layers changes at a lower rate than that at the upper                  tions result in a shorter service life than FAARFIELD
layers. The AC temperature was used to estimate the                    by about 7 years because of the increased rutting damage.
resilient modulus of the AC through the year using the                    In relation to the fatigue damage, Figure 7a shows
modified Witczak model (13). The pavement tempera-                     that the most significant damage occurs during sub-
ture profile was then used to obtain the number of hours               seasons 20 to 45, which are equivalent to the months of
128                                                                                          Transportation Research Record 2677(8)
Table 10. Resilient Modulus ( Mr ) of the Subgrade and Asphalt Concrete (AC) per Sub-Season.
Sub-season Month Period Mr subgrade (MPa) Mr AC (Mpa) Sub-season Month Period Mr subgrade (MPa) Mr AC (Mpa)
Figure 6. Cumulative rutting damage under current climate scenario: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
May through to the middle of September. Figure 7b                    fatigue damage caused by the B777-300 ER over the 20-
shows that the total fatigue damage estimated through                year period is 0.12, while in the proposed methodology it
the proposed methodology is lower than that proposed                 is 0.05068. This can be mainly attributed to two reasons:
by FAARFIELD; the software indicates that the total                  first, the amount of damage during the cooler seasons is
Barbi et al                                                                                                                129
Figure 7. Cumulative fatigue damage under current climate scenario: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
Figure 8. Cumulative rutting damage under temperature increase scenario: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
very low, considering that the pavement layers are frozen            application called ‘‘Weather Morph: Climate Change
and, therefore, very stiff during this period; second, the           Weather File Generator’’ can be used to generate hourly
proposed methodology was based on the specific charac-               future weather data for many locations across the world
teristics of the asphalt mix, such as the percentage of air          considering four gas emission scenarios in three time-hor-
voids and the effective asphalt content, which are super-            izons: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s (26). The temperature
ior to the default values considered in FAARFIELD,                   increase scenario of this research used data available at
lowering the total fatigue damage.                                   http://139.62.210.131/weatherGen/, under gas emission
                                                                     scenario RCP 8.5 in the year 2050. The matric suction
                                                                     was set at 293 kPa. Combining the proposed methodol-
Temperature Increase                                                 ogy with this hourly dataset, a comparison of the rutting
There are a few mathematical methods to project future               and fatigue damage caused by the B777-300 ER can be
weather, among which the morphing method is one of                   made, which is presented in Figures 8 and 9, which show
the most well-known approaches. A web-based                          the proposed methodology versus FAARFIELD.
130                                                                                         Transportation Research Record 2677(8)
Figure 9. Cumulative fatigue damage under temperature increase scenario: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
    As indicated by Figure 8, the total cumulative rutting          lower matric suctions will lead to higher degree of
damage at the end of the 20 years would be 1.95 under               saturation in the soil.
the temperature increase scenario, as compared to a dam-               The effect of changes in matric suction on the expected
age value of 1.55 from the current climate scenario using           pavement damage can be investigated through the use of
the proposed methodology, or 0.99 according to the tra-             the proposed methodology based on the adjustment of
ditional FAARFIELD method. Therefore, when consid-                  the modulus values. Results for rutting and fatigue dam-
ering the potential increase in temperature because of              age, based on B777-300 ER operations are therefore pre-
climate change, rutting damage can be 25% higher than               sented in Figures 10 and 11.
the current climate scenario, and 97% higher than the                  By comparing the results from the previously dis-
conventional design based on FAARFIELD, which sug-                  cussed scenarios and the lower matric suction scenario,
gests a shortening of the service life of the flexible airfield     as demonstrated by Figures 6a, 8a and 10a, it can be seen
pavement by about 10 years.                                         that the high damage season was extended when satura-
    Figure 9b shows that the total fatigue damage under             tion levels were higher. The annual result in Figure 10a
the temperature increase scenario is 0.0723, compared to            shows that high rutting damage levels occur in this case
0.05068 from the current climate scenario, or 0.12                  through sub-seasons 20 to 35, which is equivalent to the
according to the FAARFIELD method. Even though                      months of May, June and July, that is, one month more
the total fatigue damage predicted by the proposed                  than that predicted by the current climate analysis.
methodology is still smaller than FAARFIELD, it                     Figure 10b shows that the total rutting damage at the end
increased by 43% compared to the current climate analy-             of 20 years in this case was calculated to be 3.37, com-
sis. Therefore, the results from a potential rise in tem-           pared to 1.55 from the current climate scenario and 0.99
perature, if not associated with changes in moisture                from FAARFIELD. It can therefore be concluded that
levels or flooding events, will be more critical in relation        increasing the subgrade soil saturation level because of
to fatigue damage.                                                  the lowering of the matric suction results in an increase in
                                                                    rutting damage of 117% when compared to the current
                                                                    climate scenario, and 240% when compared to the tradi-
Lower Matric Suction                                                tional FAARFIELD analysis, resulting in a pavement
Under the lower matric suction scenario, past tempera-              service life of only 6 years.
ture records were considered to be similar to the cur-                 The fatigue results from Figure 11, on the other hand,
rent climate scenario, while the matric suction was                 indicate a total fatigue damage of 0.05074, which is less
assumed to be 49 kPa. The matric suction is the soil                than 1% higher than the results from the current climate
capillary pressure. The smaller the capillary pressure,             scenario (i.e., 0.05068). However, it is still much lower
the higher the soil’s ability to retain water. Therefore,           than the damage of 0.12 predicted by FAARFIELD.
Barbi et al                                                                                                               131
Figure 10. Cumulative rutting damage under lower matric suction scenario: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
Figure 11. Cumulative fatigue damage under lower matric suction scenario: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
Therefore, fatigue damage was not significantly influ-               would be completely saturated because of intense precipi-
enced by the lowered subgrade soil stiffness because of              tation. It is reasonable to assume that this hypothetical
the lowered matric suction.                                          scenario occurs in the summer, starting on August 13th.
                                                                        In the occasion of a flooding event, the soil would be
                                                                     completely saturated, and the matric suction would equal
Flooding Events                                                      zero (0). As time goes by, the soil would drain, and the
It was demonstrated in the lower matric suction scenario             matric suction would slowly recover to the equilibrium
that changes in the saturation level can affect the total            level of 293 kPa. To evaluate the effects of the rate at
predicted damage over the service life of flexible airfield          which the soil matric suction recover, over pavement
pavements. Therefore, under this scenario the effect of an           damage after a flooding event, two scenarios were evalu-
extreme event such as flooding is further evaluated. This            ated, one assuming the matric suction increase at 50 kPa/
analysis considered the additional damage from a flood-              sub-season until it reaches 293 kPa, and another with the
ing event, by simulating a condition in which the subgrade           matric suction increase at 25 kPa/sub-season.
132                                                                                          Transportation Research Record 2677(8)
Figure 12. Cumulative rutting damage under flooding scenario 1: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
Figure 13. Cumulative fatigue damage under flooding scenario 1: (a) over one year and (b) over twenty years.
   In Scenario 1, the soil returns to its equilibrium matric         than the rutting damage predicted by the traditional
suction in 36 days, and in Scenario 2, the equilibrium               FAARFIELD method.
matric suction is reestablished in 72 days. The results                 The yearly fatigue damage, on the other hand,
from scenario 1 are presented in Figures 12 and 13.                  increased less than 1% when compared to the current cli-
   The total rutting damage during the year in which                 mate scenario. It should be noted that this outcome may
flooding scenario 1 happened was found to be equal to                be associated with the fact that this scenario only consid-
0.3, as presented in Figure 12a, which is equivalent to              ered the weakening of the subgrade because of the flood-
about 6 years of damage under normal circumstances                   ing and did not account for any stiffness reduction in the
(CDF = 0.99 over 20 years). The total rutting damage                 base, sub-base, and AC layers. In an actual flood event,
over 20 years, presented in Figure 12b, was accounted at             however, those layers may also get affected, which will
1.80. Therefore, the total rutting damage under the                  most likely increase fatigue damage as well as rutting.
flooding scenario 1 is 16% higher than the damage pre-               The results from Scenario 2 are summarized by Figures
dicted by the current climate scenario and 82% higher                14 and 15.
Barbi et al                                                                                                                133
Figure 14. Cumulative rutting damage under flooding scenario 2: (a) over one year, and (b) over twenty years.
Figure 15. Cumulative fatigue damage under flooding scenario 2: (a) over one year, and (b) over twenty years.
   In this scenario, the total rutting damage at the end of          damage predicted by the current climate scenario. Such
year 1 was 0.43, as can be seen in Figure 14a, which is              results are consistent with flooding scenario 1, in which
equivalent to 8.7 years of damage under normal circum-               the flooding event presented a neglectable increment to
stances (CDF = 0.99 over 20 years). It can be noted in               the fatigue CDF.
Figure 12b that the rutting damage over 20 years was
accounted at 1.90. The rutting damage under the flood-
ing event Scenario 2 is 22% higher than the damage
computed in the current climate scenario and 92%
                                                                     Discussion
higher than the damage predicted by the traditional                  The cumulative rutting and fatigue damage, as well as
FAARFIELD method. The yearly fatigue damage under                    the predicted service life from all scenarios evaluated in
the flooding Scenario 2 was less than 1% higher than the             this study is summarized in Table 11.
134                                                                                                       Transportation Research Record 2677(8)
                                                 Fatigue                                                Rutting
                                                  % Difference compared                        % Difference   % Difference compared    Predicted
                                                    to current climate           Rutting        compared        to current climate    service life
Climate scenarios           Fatigue damage               scenario                damage       to FAARFIELD           scenario           (years)
Note: FAARFIELD = FAA rigid and flexible iterative elastic layered design; na = not applicable.
    The fatigue damage estimated through the proposed                             pavement service life could be reduced to 11 years in
methodology in all the scenarios was found to be smaller                          flooding scenario 1 and 10.4 years in scenario 2, if no
than the total damage estimated from the traditional                              rehabilitation measures were taken after the event.
FAARFIELD analysis. This can be explained in light of                                 The results of different climate change scenarios
FAARFIELD considering that the AC stiffness is con-                               showed that the greatest rutting damage occurred in the
stant throughout the year and equivalent to a tempera-                            lower matric suction scenario. Lower matric suction
ture of 32°C. However, the damage during the colder                               directly affects the equilibrium saturation level and low-
seasons was calculated to be much less since the pave-                            ers subgrade stiffness during both the recovery and
ment layers are frozen during this time. Among all the                            unfrozen seasons. The results showed that the decrease
climate change scenarios evaluated, fatigue damage                                in matric suction could increase damage by approxi-
seemed to be little affected by changes in soil saturation,                       mately 117% compared to the current climate scenario,
which is present in the lower matric suction and flooding                         and decrease the pavement service life to only a few
events scenarios. However, the effects of the temperature                         years.
increase scenario indicated fatigue damage that is 43%                                Given the results of analysis of the lower matric suc-
higher than that in the current climate scenario.                                 tion scenario, it is important to recognize that matric
    All the scenarios demonstrated greater rutting damage                         suction can vary though the year because of variations in
than predicted through FAARFIELD. The current cli-                                rainfall, evapotranspiration, ground water table levels,
mate scenario was based on past temperature data from                             and pumping of water from wells, and it is difficult to
2010 through 2019 and a matric suction of 293 kPa, and                            predict if suction will rise or decrease in certain regions
it resulted in rutting damage that was 57% greater than                           because of the effects of climate change. Although there
that estimated through FAARFIELD, and a reduction                                 is strong evidence of rising temperatures and an increas-
in service life of 7 years. The effects of higher temperature                     ing incidence of extreme weather events such as flooding
under the temperature increase scenario suggested rutting                         in Canada, it would be hard to make predictions about
damage that was 25% greater than the damage predicted                             future matric suction levels. If an airport experiences a
by the current climate scenario and a service life that was                       significant rise in subgrade saturation levels in the future,
2.6 years shorter. By comparing the impact of tempera-                            the airport authorities would typically have to monitor
ture increase on rutting and fatigue damage, when the                             saturation levels and drain the excess water in a more
scenario is not associated with changes in moisture, it is                        efficient way, or enhance the pavement structure or
possible to conclude that a potential rise in temperature                         impose operational limitations for certain periods of
because of climate change can be more critical in relation                        time.
to fatigue damage. It is important to note that this sce-                             The fleet mix used in the analysis, although realistic
nario simulated temperature predictions corresponding                             for Toronto Pearson Airport, would not necessarily rep-
to the year 2050, with average temperatures of about 5°C                          resent other airports, where the amount and nature of
above the current scenario.                                                       traffic may be different. In the case of airports that do
    Flooding scenarios 1 and 2 showed an increase in rut-                         not handle B777-300 ER operation, damage is more
ting damage of 16% and 22% when compared to the                                   likely to be evenly distributed among the aircrafts in the
current climate analysis. The impact was greater for                              fleet mix. Although the finding that climate change can
flooding scenario 2 as it was based on a slower matric                            increase pavement damage and shorten service life is
suction recovery rate after flooding than scenario 1. The                         likely to remain relevant in the analysis of other airports,
Barbi et al                                                                                                                  135
the percent increase in damage and the decrease in the            Tavassoti; draft manuscript preparation: Paula Barbi, Pejoohan
service life of airport pavements will vary from one air-         Tavassoti and Susan Tighe. All authors reviewed the results
port to another.                                                  and approved the final version of the manuscript.
   It should be noted that this research only considered
the conventional flexible airport pavements (i.e., AC on          Declaration of Conflicting Interests
top of unbonded granular layers) of Toronto Pearson
                                                                  The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with
International Airport in the analysis. The pavement dam-          respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this
age results would likely change if different layer thick-         article.
nesses, stabilized materials, or unconventional structures
were used. Furthermore, the traffic and fleet mix data
used in this investigation were pertinent to the selected         Funding
airport facility, and may not represent traffic and fleet         The author(s) received no financial support for the research,
mix data for other airports.                                      authorship, and/or publication of this article.
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