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Abdur Rehman Chouhan

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF

SIND PROVINCE OF PAKISTAN

BY
ABDUL HAKEEM MAKHDOOM

A Sub-thesis submitted in partial fulfilment

of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Arts in Demography
at the
Australian National University.

CANBERRA: February 1989

DECLARATION

Except where otherwise indicated,

this thesis is my own work.

Abdul Hakeem Makhdoom

February 1989
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am deeply indebted to the Government of Pakistan

for nominating me for this course. I wish to express my

gratitude to the Australian Government for awarding me a

scholarship to pursue studies at the Australian National

University.

I would like to express my deep gratitude to my

teacher and supervisor Dr David Lucas, for his guidance

throughout the writing of this thesis.

I wish to thank my advisors, Dr Alan Gray and Dr L.T

Ruzicka for their invaluable advice at various stages of

the study.

Ms Marian May edited my drafts, for which I am

grateful. Secretarial assistance by Josephine Roper is
also gratefully acknowledged.
I deeply appreciate the assistance of my brother
Abdul Sattar Makhdoom, who kept sending me the data
relevant to my study from Pakistan.

Above all I thank and praise Almighty God, who has

enabled me to produce this piece of work.

ABSTRACT

This study presents the various aspects of

population growth, composition, distribution and the
three major demographic variables- fertility, mortality
and migration in respect of Sind province of Pakistan.
Although the focus of this study is on Sind, some
demographic characteristics of other provinces are also
touched upon, mainly for comparative purposes. This study
is mainly based on the data produced by population
censuses conducted in 1951, 1961, 1972 and 1981 and the
1976-79 Population Growth Survey.
It is shown in Chapter Two that, during the period
of 80 years (1901-1981), there was an approximately six
fold increase in the population of Sind. The acceleration
in the growth of population started after partition.
Chapter Three provides background for the population
projections in Chapter Four. The Total Fertility Rate of
Sind is shown to be the lowest amongst the provinces. The
expectation of life at birth is virtually the same in
respect of Sind and the whole of Pakistan. Since the
inception of Pakistan, the net inter-provincial migration
to Sind has been much greater than to any other province.
The results of population projections of Sind suggest
that, 35 years from 1981, the population of Sind would be
2.7, 2.4 and 2.1 times the 1981 population under the
high, medium and low variants respectively. The growth of
population with largely uncontrolled fertility would
nullify the socio-economic development of Sind. Hence the
reduction in fertility on a substantial scale in the
minimum possible time is highly emphasized.
V

LIST OF CONTENTS

Page

Declaration...................................................ii

Acknowledgements............................................ iii

Abstract...................................................... iv

List of Tables............................................. viii

Figure ....................................................... ix

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION..................................................1

1.1 Importance of the Study......................... 1

1.2 Objectives of the Study......................... 2

1.3 GENERAL BACKGROUND OF SIND...................... 3

1.3.1 Geographical Setting..................... 3

1.3.2 Historical Background.................... 5
1.3.3 Administrative Units..................... 6
1.3.4 The Economy.............................. 6

1.4 Sources of Data................................. 7

1.5 Organization of the Study....................... 8

CHAPTER TWO

POPULATION GROWTH, COMPOSITION AND DISTRIBUTION ............. 9

2.1 Population Growth............................... 9

2.2 Population Composition......................... 12

2.2.1 Age and Sex Composition.................12

[a] Age Composition and

Dependency Ratio................... 12

[b] Sex Ratio.......................... 14

2.2.2 Marital Status.......................... 20

2.2.3 Socio-Economic Characteristics..........22
[a] Religion........................... 22

[b] Language........................... 24

[c] Literacy and

Educational Attainment............. 25

[d] Composition of Labour Force and

Working Population by Industry.... 28

2.3 Population Distribution........................ 31

2.3.1 Population Distribution and Density
Within Regions.......................... 31

2.3.2 Population Distribution and Density

Within Districts........................ 33
2.3.3 Urban-Rural Population Distribution
Within Regions.......................... 35

2.3.4 Urban-Rural Population Distribution

Within Districts........................ 37

CHAPTER THREE
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH.............................3 9
3.1 Fertility.......................................39
3.1.1 Levels and Trends of Fertility..........39
3.1.2 Provincial Fertility Differentials..... 41

3.2 Mortality.......................................44

3.2.1 Levels and Trends of Mortality.......... 44

3.2.2 Provincial Mortality Differentials..... 45

3.3 Migration.......................................48

3.3.1 Volume and Patterns of Migration

in the Provinces of Pakistan............ 48

3.3.2 Sex Ratio of Migrants in the

Provinces of Pakistan................... 50

3.3.3 Inter-Provincial Migration.............. 51

vii

CHAPTER FOUR
POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SIND PROVINCE (1981-2016)....... 54
4.1 Adjusting of Base Year Age Distribution
Data for Digit Preference...................... 54

4.2 Assumptions of Future Trends of Population....55

4.2.1 Fertility Assumptions...................56
4.2.2 Mortality Assumptions...................59

4.2.3 Internal Migration Assumptions..........60

4.2.4 International Migration Assumptions.... 62

4.3 Results of Population Projections............. 63

4.3.1 Population of Sind, 1981-2016...........63

4.3.2 Age Composition and Dependency..........65

4.3.3 School Age Population................... 68

[a] Pre-School Age Population....... 68

[b] Primary school Age Population.... 69

[c] Secondary School Age Population..72
CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION...................................... 75

REFERENCES.................................................. 82

APPENDIX A .................................................. 90

APPENDIX B .................................................. 91

APPENDIX C 92
viii

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE TITLE Page

2.1 Population of Pakistan and Sind with Intercensal

increase and Annual Rate of Growth: 1901 to 1981..... 10
2.2 Percentage Distribution of Population by Age and
Sex, Sind: 1972 and 1981.............................. 13
2.3 Sex Ratio from Census Data by Region: 1951-1981...... 15

2.4 Sex Ratio from Census Data by Age Groups,

Sind: 1972 and 1981...................................17

2.5 Sex Ratio from Census Data by District,

Sind: 1951-1981....................................... 19
2.6 Percentage Distribution of Population (15 years and
above) by Marital Status, Sex and Age Groups,
Sind: 1981............................................ 21
2.7 Percentage Distribution of Population by Religion for
Pakistan and its Provinces: 1981..................... 23
2.8 Literacy Ratios for Pakistan
and its Provinces: 1972 and 1981...................... 26
2.9 Literacy Ratios by Sex for Population 10 Years and Over
by Rural and Urban Areas in Sind: 1972 and 1981...... 26

2.10 Percentage of Population by Economic Categories and

Unemployment Rate by Sex, Sind and Pakistan: 1981.... 29

2.11 Area, Population and Density by Region: 1961-1981.... 32

2.12 Area, Population and Density by District, Sind:

1972 and 1981......................................... 34

2.13 Percentage Distribution of Population in Urban and

Rural Areas by Region: 1961-1981...................... 36
2.14 Percentage Distribution of Population in Urban and
Rural Areas by District , Sind: 1961-1981.............38

3.1 Age Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rates

and General Reproductive Rates for Pakistan and its
Provinces: 1976 PGS and 1984-85 PCPS................. 42

3.2 Unadjusted and Adjusted Crude Death Rates for Four

Provinces of Pakistan: 1976-1979 PGS................. 46
ix

3.3 Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy at Birth

by Sex for Pakistan and its Provinces:
1976-1979 PGS ........................................ 46

3.4 Number and Percentage of Non-migrants, Long-term

Migrants and Recent Migrants Aged 10 & Above by
Residence and Urban Rural Areas for Pakistan
and its Provinces: 1973............................... 49

3.5 Sex Ratio of Long-term Migrants and Recent Migrants

Aged 10 Years & Above by Residence
for Pakistan and its Provinces: 1973................. 49

3.6 Total Population, In-migrants, Out-migrants and

Net Migrants in the Provinces of Pakistan:
1973 and 1981......................................... 52
3.7 Percentage Distribution of Inter-provincial Migration
in Pakistan: 1973 and 1981............................ 53

4.1 Fertility Assumptions for the Projection Period:

1981-2016............................................. 57
4.2 Mortality Assumptions for the Projection Period:
1981-2016............................................. 57

4.3 Internal Migration Assumptions for the Projection

Period 1981-2016...................................... 61
4.4 Projected Population by Sex, Sind: 1981-2016......... 64
4.5 Percentage Distribution of Projected Population
by Selected Age Groups and Dependency Ratio,
Sind: 1981-2016....................................... 66
4.6 Projected School Age Population in Respect of Sind:
1981 and 2016......................................... 70

FIGURE

NO Name of Figure

1 Map of Sind Province of Pakistan..................... 4

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

Pakistan was created on 14 August, 1947, from former

British India. Pakistan had two wings, East and West, until
1971 when East Pakistan became Bangladesh. Present-day

Pakistan is composed of four Provinces: Sind, Punjab, North

West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Baluchistan, which

includes the Federal Capital Area and the Federally

Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) [Population Census

Organization, 1984a:l; Shah, 1986:2-3]..

The study of the demographic aspects in Sind province

of Pakistan is quite important for a variety of reasons.
Firstly, there was an approximately six-fold increase in the
population of Sind between 1901 and 1981. Secondly, the
intercensal growth rates of the population of Sind during

the intercensal periods 1951-61, 1961-72 and 1972-81 have

remained higher than the national level. Thirdly, the net

inter-provincial migration to Sind has been recorded as the

highest amongst the provinces of Pakistan. Lastly the urban

proportion of the population, literacy ratio and level of

educational attainment are higher in Sind than in the other

provinces, and also higher than the national level.

[Salahuddin and Khan, 1984:Table 2.11; Population Census

Organization, 1984a:Tables 2.1 & 4.3; 1984b:Table 2.1;

1985:Tables 1,17 & 27]

Population projections are the most important part of

the statistical basis for planning the employment and

educational needs, production of goods and services and

other Government programmes [United Nations, 1981:6-7].

Hence the study of population characteristics along with

population projections is important for the planners and

policy makers of the province.

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1. To review and analyse the various aspects of population

size, growth, composition and distribution in respect of

Sind province, as produced by the decennial censuses.

2. To prepare population projections for Sind province
for the period 1981-2016.
3. To review and analyse the trends in fertility,
mortality and migration for Sind province.
4. To compare some demographic changes in Sind province
with the other three provinces.
3

1.3. GENERAL BACKGROUND OF SIND

1.3.1 Geographical Setting

Sind is bounded by Punjab province in the north, the

Arabian sea and Rann of Kutch in the south, Baluchistan

province in the west and India in the east [Rahman, 1975:1].

In dimension, Sind is longer than it is broad. Its

north-south length is about 540 kilometres and its breadth

is about 250 kilometres. It is located between 23^-40// and

28^-29/ north latitudes and 66^-40^ and 710-05/ east
longitudes [Rahman, 1975:2 ; Population Census Organization,

1984b:1].
Sind with an area of 140,914 square kilometres, stands

third in respect of area amongst the four provinces of

Pakistan [Population Census Organization, 1984b:5].
Sind has the following four broad physical divisions:
a) Kirthar Range:- The hills of Kirthar spread all along
the western border of Sind, hence the highest ridge of the

Kirthars stands as the boundary between the provinces of

Sind and Baluchistan [Rahman, 1975:7 ; Population Census

Organization, 1984b:l].

b) Lower Indus Plain:- This plain is 100 meters above sea

level, with a few low limestone ridges, depressions and

lakes. The lower part of this plain starts from Hyderabad.

Some of the low limestone ridges extend about 50 kilometres

south of Rohri. A similar ridge also spreads southward from

Hyderabad up to a distance of 25 kilometres [Population

Census Organization, 1984b:l].

Figure 1: Map of Sind Province of Pakistan

Source: Population Census Organization, 1 9 8 4b :11 6

c) Indus Delta:- The low-lying plains in the south of

Thatta are known as the Indus Delta [Rahman, 1975:7].

d) Thar Desert:- This desert lies all along the eastern

border of Sind. The major part of the desert is situated in

India, as it is an extension of Rajputana desert, separated

by a political boundary [Rahman, 1975:12 ; Population Census

Organization, 1984b:2].

Climatically, most of Sind has high summer temperatures

and a cool winter. The temperature starts rising in March

and remains high until October, which is considered as the

summer season. The winter lasts from November to February

[Rahman, 1975:16 ; Population Census Organization, 1984b:2].

The rainfall varies in different regions. The annual

rainfall in lower and upper Sind is about 200 and 100

millimetres respectively, with an average annual rainfall

of about 125 millimetres. The maximum rainfall is recorded
in summer season [Rahman, 1975:16; Population Census
Organization, 1984b:2].

1.3.2 Historical Background

Sind has ancient origins. The Indus civilization

started from the middle of the third millenium B.C, hence

the history of Sind started from this period. The word Sind

is derived from the Sanskrit word "Sindhu". This name was

given by Aryans to the river Indus [Khuhro , 19 81: X ;

Population Census Organization, 1984b : 1]. From 326 B.C to

1843, the Sind remained under the rule of Budhists,

Brahamans, Arabs, Soomaras, Sammas, Arghuns, Terkhans,

Mughuls, Kalhoras and Talpurs. In 1843 British occupied Sind

[Rahman, 1975:53-63] .
After occupation the Sind was made a part of Bombay

province by the British. In 1936 the Sind became a separate

province with the efforts of All-India Muslim League. After

the inception of Pakistan in 1947, the province became a
part of Pakistan. On 14th October 1955, it was merged into

one unit of West Pakistan. On 1st July, 1970, Sind regained

its status as a province, as a result of dissolution of the

one unit [Soomro, 1977:1-16; Hasan, 1975:57]

1.3.3 Administrative ünits

For administrative purposes, the province of Sind is

divided into divisions and the divisions are further divided

into districts. At the time of the 1981 census, there were 3
administrative divisions, which contained 15 districts

compared to 11 districts in the 1972 census [Population

Census Organization, 1984a:6-9; 1984b:3-4],

1.3.4 The Economy

Agriculture is of paramount importance for the economy

of the province. The contribution of agriculture to the

provincial income during 1973-74 was 34 per cent [Husain,

1981:207]. The cotton, rice, jowar, bajra, wheat and sugar

cane are the principal crops in the province [Federal Bureau

of Statistics, 1987b:104]. Sind has a geographical area of

140,914 square kilometres. Out of this, the cultivated area

in 1979-80 was 38.5 per cent of the total geographical area

[Bureau of Statistics, 1983:80-81]. Sind is the largest

contributor of industrial output amongst the provinces. In

1973-74, the contribution of manufacturing to the provincial

income was 19 per cent [Husain, 1981:207].

1.4 SOURCES OF DATA

Data on population size, growth, composition and

distribution, produced by population censuses in 1951, 1961,

1972 and 1981 respectively are the major sources of this

study. Data from censuses prior to Independence will also be

used to examine the growth of population in retrospect.

Population Growth Surveys (PGS) primarily collected data on

vital events; hence for this study, the data will also be
used from Population Growth Surveys, which were conducted
during the period 1968 to 1971 and 1976 to 1979. Other

publications namely, Five Year Plans, Pakistan Economic

Surveys, and Pakistan Basic Facts also contain relevant
information which will be used in this study. Information

from 1984 Pakistan Demographic Survey (PDS), will also be

used. The 1984-PDS contains data on fertility and mortality.

The data on fertility will also be used for this study from

1984-85 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS).

1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

The present study comprises five chapters.

Chapter 1 is the introduction, which describes the

importance and objectives of the study, the general

background of Sind and the source of data.

Chapter 2 examines the trends of population growth in

Sind from 1901 to 1981, the age and sex composition, marital

status and socio-economic characteristics of the population.

This chapter also discusses the population distribution and

density within regions and districts, as well as urban-rural

population distribution within regions and districts.

Chapter 3 deals with components of population growth

namely fertility, mortality and migration.

Chapter 4 deals with population projections of Sind

for the period 1981-2016.
Chapter 5 is the concluding chapter, which contains
summary of findings and conclusion.
9

CHAPTER TWO

POPULATION GROWTH, COMPOSITION AND DISTRIBUTION

2.1 POPULATION GROWTH

Census-taking in the area now comprising Pakistan is

not a new phenomenon. The first census of the Indo-Pakistan

sub-continent was attempted under British rule between the

years 1867 and 1872, but it was un-coordinated and quite

incomplete. However, on the basis of valuable experience

gained in the earlier attempt, the very first regular census

was conducted on the 17th February 1881, throughout the

Indo-Pakistan sub-continent. Since that year the census has

taken place regularly once in every ten years, except for

the year 1971, when the census was postponed until the
following year, because of the political situation in
Pakistan. Since Independence four national censuses have
been conducted in Pakistan, in 1951, 1961, 1972 and 1981

respectively [Census of India, 1903:1; Population Census

Organization, n.d.aii; Shah, 1986:337-338]

Table 2.1 indicates increase in population and annual

growth rates for Sind and Pakistan from 1901 to 1981. The

population of Sind was 3.7 million in 1911 compared to 3.4

million in 1901 resulting in the annual growth rate of 0.9

per cent. This was followed by a period of negative growth

1911-1921, reflecting the impact of the 1918 influenza

Table 2.1

Population of Pakistan and Sind with Intercensal Increase and Annual

Rate of Growth : 1901 to 1981

(Population in Millions)

1 1 PAKISTAN 1 SIND

IYear|Population IIntercensal Annual IPopulation IIntercensal Annual

1 1 I increase rate of | | increase rate of
1 1 I (per cent) growth | I (per cent) growth
1. 1 (per cent)| 1 (per cent)
1
1 1 ★ 1 1
I19011 -4. C ■ w/ ' O " ““ 1 3.410 | ------
1 1 1 1
1 1 ★★ ★★ | 1
119111 19.382 116.93 (7.14) 1.60 (0.70) | 3.737 I 9.59 0.92
I 1 1 1
119211 21.109 I 8.91 0.80 | 3.473 1 - 7.06 - 0.74
1 1 1 1
119311 23.542 1 11.53 1.10 | 4.114 I 18.46 1.71
I 1 1
I19411 28.282 I 20.13 1.90 | 5.111 I 24.23 2.19
1 1 1 1
119511 33.740 I 19.30 1.80 | 6.048 I 18.33 1.70
1 1 i i
119611 42.880 1 27.09 2.45 | 8.367 I 38.35 3.33
1★★ ★ j 1 1
|1972| 65.309 1 52.31 3.67 | 14.156 I 69.19 4.61
j★★ ★★ | i 1
I19811 84.254 I 29.01 3.06 | 19.029 I 34.42 3.56

Notes: * Excluding population of Frontier Regions.

** Based on population excluding 1,622,000 persons
of Frontier Regions in 1911. .
*** 1961-72 Intercensal period was 11 years and 7.5 months.
**** 1972-81 Intercensal period was 8 years and 5.5 months.

Sources: Afzal, 1974:Table 1 [Pakistan:1901-1941]

Salahuddin and Khan, 1984:Table 2.3 [Sind:1901-1941]

Population Census Organization, 1984a:Table 2.1; 1984b:Table 2.1

[Pakistan and Sind:1951-1981]
11

epidemic when many deaths occurred. The next decade 1921-

1931 showed population increase of 18.5 per cent with

annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent (Afzal,1974:1-3) .
The population of Sind was 5 .'1 million in 1941

compared to 4.1 million in 1931 resulting in the annual

growth rate of 2.2 per cent. The reason for this high growth

rate was the decline in death rate, which was brought about

by two factors. The first was the considerable control over

epidemics, and the second was the virtual elimination of

famines probably due to increased food production by virtue

of the construction of Sukkur Barrage in 1932, which

gradually extended irrigation. The annual growth rate

during the intercensal period of 1941-1951 was 1.7 per
cent, mainly as a result of natural increase and partly as
the result of the partition of the sub-continent in 1947.
During partition Muslims left India for Pakistan and Hindus
left Pakistan for India. In this shifting the province of
Sind gained a substantial number of Muslims [Rahman,
1975:151-153; Afzal, 1974:1-2]

Sind has witnessed a remarkable growth in its

population over the last three intercensal periods. During

the periods 1951-1961, 1961-1972 and 1972-1981 the

population of Sind has increased at an annual growth rate of

3.3, 4.6 and 3.6 per cent respectively. It is evident from

Table 2.1 that the annual growth rates in Sind during these

three intercensal periods are higher than the national

level. One cause for such high growth rates in Sind (as well

as the other provinces) is the sharp decline in death rates

due to improved environmental conditions and health

facilities, accompanied by high birth rates. Another cause

of high growth rates in Sind is the migration from other

provinces. Karachi, the biggest centre of trade and

industry in Pakistan, is a major attraction to the people

of other provinces [Planning Commission, 1978:391-392;

1983:400-401; Khaskhelley, et al, 1976:1-4]

2.2 POPULATION COMPOSITION

2.2.1 Age and Sex Composition

[a] Age Composition and Dependency Ratio

Demographers are interested in the age composition of

population because age is closely related with the

components of population growth (fertility, mortality and
migration), as well as the socio-economic behaviour of the
individual. Age plays an important role in schooling,

participation in the labour force, productivity and

consumption, marriage and reproduction. Governments also
need to know the age distribution of the population for

planning of development programmes [Weller and

Bouvier,1981:239; Krishnamoorthy and Muthiah,1985:55]

Table 2.2 provides a percentage distribution of male

and female population according to quinquennial age groups.

Analysis of the age composition of Sind reveals some

striking features. The population according to the 1972 and

1981 censuses can be grouped under three broad categories of

0-14, 15-64 and 65 and over. The people in age groups 15-64

form the most significant group from the point of view of

Table 2.2

Percentage Distribution of Population bv Age and Sex, Sind

1972 and 1981

1 Census 1972 I Census 1981

.Myt; ui uup 1
| i
I Male IFemale|Both Sexes| Male 1Female IBoth Sexes
1
i i
i i
i i
i i i i
i
0-4 I 14.1 1 17.9 | 15.9 1 14.4| 17.9 | 16.1
1 1
1 1 1
1 I
1 1
1
5-9 | 16.1 1 16.7 | 16.4 I 16.01 17.0 | 16.5
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 I
1 1
1
10-14 1 12.3 1 10.9 | 11.6 1 12.91 12.1 | 12.5
1
1 1
1 1 1
1 I
1 1
1
15-19 | 8.6 1 7.9 | 8.2 1 9.5| 8.5 | 9.0
1 1
1 I 1
1 I
1 i
1
20-24 | 7.8 1 8.2 | 8.0 1 8.3| 7.9 | 8.1
1
1 1
1 1 1
1 I
1 1
25-29 I 8.0 1 7.8 | 7.9 1 7.4| 6.9 | 7.2
1
1 1
1 1 1
1 I1 1
1
30-34 1 6.7 1 6.8 | 6.8 1 6.0| 5.7 | 5.8
1 1
1 I 1
1 II 1
1
35-39 I 5.9 1 5.4 | 5.7 1 5.4| 5.4 | 5.4
1 1
1 1 1
1 I
1 1
1
40-44 I 5.3 1 4.9 | 5.1 1 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.8
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 I
1 1
1
45-49 1 3.8 1 3.2 | 3.5 1 3.8| 3.7 | 3.7
1
1 i
1 1
1 1
1 I
1 1
50-54 1 3.7 1 3.1 | 3.4 1 3.6| 3.1 | 3.4
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 I
1 I
55-59 I 1.8 1 1.6 | 1.7 1 1.9| 1.7 | 1.8
1 1
1 1 1
1 I1 1
1
60-64 1 2.6 1 2.3 | 2.5 1 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.4
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 I
I 1
65-69 1 1.0 1 1.0 | 0.9 1 1.0 1 0.9 | 1.0
1 1
1 1 1
1 I1 1
1
70-74 I 1.1 1 1.1 1 1.2 1 1.2| 1.0 | 1.1
1 1
1 1 1
1 I
1 1
75 + I 1.2 1 1.2 | 1.2 1 1.2| 1.2 | 1.2
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 I
1 1
1
Total I100.0 1100.0 | 100.0 1100.01 100.0 | 100.0
1
i 1
1 1 1 1 1
Total Pop|7,574 i6, 582 | 14,156 19,9991 9,029 | 19,028
(000's) 1 1 1 I 1 1

Sources: Population Census Organization, n.d.b:Table 4;

1984b:Table 4.
14

the contribution to economic activity. The population of

Sind includes a very high proportion of young persons (below
15 years) . According to the 1981 census, children below 15

years constitute 45.1 per cent of the total population

compared with 43.9 per cent in 1972. The decrease in infant

and child mortality along with high fertility is the main

cause of increase in the young population. Sind has a very

small proportion of old population aged 65 years and above,

which constitutes 3.3 per cent in 1981 and 1972. The

population of working age (15 to 64 years) constitutes 51.6

per cent in 1981, slightly lower than in 1972, when it was

52.8. There is not much difference in proportions of males

compared to those of the females in the three age groups in
1972 and 1981. The present age structure in Sind is
indicative of high fertility in the population and
moderately declining mortality. A larger percentage of
dependent population adversely affects the economic and
social advancement of the province. The dependency ratio
(the proportion of children under 15 and old persons aged 65
and over to the population between 15 to 64) in respect of

Sind, was 89.4 and 93.8 in the censuses of 1972 and 1981

respectively. The present age structure in Sind is leading

towards higher dependency.

[b] Sex Ratio

"The sex ratio, the number of males per one hundred

females, measures a population's sex composition. The sex

ratio of the total population is determined by the levels of

Table 2.3

★
Sex Ratio from Census Data by Region: 1951-1981

I Region |Census 1951 |Census 1961 |Census 1972 |Census 19811

1
1 _ 1
1 _ 1 —
1 ___ _ I
1 _
1 1 1 1
Sind I 124 I 123 I 115 | 111
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
I Punjab I 115 | 114 I 116 | 111
1 1 1
| NWFP I 112 I 109 1 108 I 109
1 1 |
1 1
I Baluchistan | 121 | 122 I 113 | 112
1 1
1 1 1
| FATA | 112 I 110 I 103 I 108
i ii i 1 1
I*k 1 1 1
|Federal Capital| -- I 124 I 119
|Area (Islamabad) 1 1 1
i ii 1
1 1
1 1
1
I Pakistan 1 116 I 115 | 114 | 111

Note: * The Sex ratio is defined as the number of males per one
hundred females.
** The figures of the Federal Capital Area (Islamabad) for
1951 and 1961 are included in Punjab Province.

Source: Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 12

fertility and mortality, sex-selective patterns of migration

and the sex ratio at birth."[Weller and Bouvier, 1981:236].

Sex ratios in the population of Pakistan and its

regions in the censuses during the period from 1951 to 1981

are presented in Table 2.3. Table 2.4 presents sex ratios in

the population of Sind by age groups for the censuses of

1972 and 1981. Table 2.5 provides sex ratios in the

population of Sind by district in the censuses of 1951,

1961, 1972 and 1981.

Table 2.3 indicates that sex ratios in Pakistan as

well as its regions are high, that is, there is an excess of

males. There are four possible explanations for the high sex
ratios: (1) occurrence of more births in respect of males
than of females, (2) better coverage of males than of
females in the censuses, (3) higher female mortality, and
(4) internal migration (which may be sex-selective).
However, the decline in sex ratio has been observed from
1951 to 1981. In 1951 and 1961, Sind and Baluchistan have
been showing higher sex ratios than other provinces. One of

the possible explanations may be that Sind and Baluchistan

might have received a significant net gain of migrants from

NWFP and Punjab. Apart from inter-provincial migration, Sind

has been receiving significant numbers of migrants, since

1947, as a result of partition of the Indo-Pakistan Sub-

Continent. Among the migrants from India, the proportion of

males increased rather steadily after 1951. In some cases

male Hindus did not leave Sind for India in order to run

their business in Sind and shifted their women and children

to India [Afzal, 1974:30-32; Rahman, 1975:151-152]. However

Table 2.4

Sex Ratio from Census Data bv Acre Groups , Sind.

1972 and 1981

| Age Group 1972 1 1981 |

—i
1—
1
| All Ages 115 1 111 1
1
l
0-4 90 1 89
1
1
5-9 111 1 105
1
1
| 10-14 130 1 119 |
1
1
| 15-19 124 1 124 |
1
1
| 20-24 110 1 115
1
1
I 25-29 118 1 119
1
1
| 30-34 113 1 115
1
1
I 35-39 126 1 109
1
1
| 40-44 124 1 106
1
| 45-49 136 ! 115 |
1
1
| 50-54 137 1 128
1
1
| 55-59 126 1 124
1
1
| 60-64 133 142 |
I
1
I 65-69 126 1 126
1
1
| 70-74 126 1 129
1
1
I 75 + 114 1 114

Sources: Salahuddin and Khan, 1984:Table 2.37

Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table 3.1

the steady decline in overall sex ratio since 1951 can be

attributed to relatively faster decline in female mortality
than male mortality and better coverage of females in the
censuses [Federal Bureau of Statistics, 1987a:xxxiii].

Fluctuations in sex ratio from one age group to

another in the censuses of 1972 and 1981 in Sind province

are shown in Table 2.4. Fluctuations in sex ratio may be

partly attributed to the errors in the data and the extent

of these errors may be different for each sex. The sex

ratios for age group 0-4 in the censuses of 1972 and 1981,

90 and 89 respectively, indicates the deficit of males. The

high sex ratio among adolescent persons aged 10-14 and 15-19
may probably be attributed to selective underenumeration or
age misreporting of young girls who are not yet married.

This is probably due to cultural practices whereby parents

avoid revealing the presence in their homes of unmarried

daughters who have reached menarche. The higher sex ratios
among persons aged 50 and above may be attributed to both
the age misreporting and selective underenumeration. The

fluctuations in sex ratios may also be due to sex-selective

immigration from other provinces of Pakistan into Sind.

Besides other parts of Sind, the main source of attraction

for migrants in Sind has been the city of Karachi. The Sex-

selective impact of migration is evident in Table 2.5, which

shows that the sex ratio of Karachi was 134, 130, 123 and

119 in the censuses of 1951, 1961, 1972 and 1981

respectively, which is highest amongst the districts of Sind

province [Zaki and Zaki, 1981:11-22; Khaskhelly, et al,

Table 2.5

Sex Ratio from Census Data by District, Sind: 1951-1981

District Census 1951 Census 1961 Census 1972 Census 1981

Notes: * Shikarpur and Badin districts were formed during

the intercensal period 1972-81. Hence Sukkur
district includes Shikarpur district, while
Hyderabad district and Thatta district includes
Badin district in the 1951, 1961 and 1972
censuses.

Sources: Salahuddin and Khan, 1984:Table 2.20

Population Census Organization, 1983;

1984b:10; 1984c:8.
20

1976:6-8; Afzal, 1974:57-75; Nyrop, R.F. et al, 1971:54-55;

Shah, 1986:60-63].

2.2.2 Marital Status

The study of marital status is important from a

demographic point of view because it affects the components

of population growth. Its effect on fertility is quite

significant, whereas mortality and migration are also

affected by it. In Pakistan almost every one who lives a

normal lifespan marries; as a result fertility is almost

wholly confined to married life. Illegitimate fertility in

Pakistan is negligible and has no demographic significance

at all [Afzal, 1974:12; Hashmi,1965:63-68]

Table 2.6 presents the percentage distribution of the

male and female population (15 years and above) in the 1981
census in Sind according to the classifications of never
married, currently married, widowed and divorced. The
Percentages of never married, currently married and widowed
amongst males were 32.0, 65.3 and 2.7 respectively, and in

respect of females the percentages were 16.4, 73.7 and 9.7

respectively. In Sind 84 per cent of the males and 94 per

cent of the females aged 30 to 34 were currently married.

The obvious difference in the marital status of males

and females is also reflected through mean age at marriage

in Sind, which is 20.2 years for females compared to 25.1

years for males in 1981, a difference of 4.9 years. The

Government of Pakistan has discouraged marriage at younger

ages and in this context, the minimum age at marriage was

Table 2.6

Percentage Distribution of Population (15 years and above) by

Marital Status, Sex and Age Groups, Sind: 1981.

Marital Status
Age Group Never Married Currently Married Widowed Divorced
and Sex
1 1 i i i
|Al1 Ages | 1 1 1
Male | 32.0 | 65.3 1 2.7| 0.1
Female| 16.4 | 73.7 1 9.7 | 0.2
I15-19 1 1 1 1
Male | 91.3 | 8.6 1 0.11 0.0
Female| 66.6 | 33.1 1 0.3 | 0.1
I20-24 1 1 1 1
Male | 63.2 | 36.1 1 0.5| 0.2
Female| 24.2 | 74.7 1 0.8| 0.2
125-29 1 1 1 I
Male | 31.2 | 67.9 1 0.8| 0.1
Female| 8.1 | 90.3 1 1.4| 0.2
I30-34 1 1 1 1
Male | 14.6 | 83.9 1 1.4| 0.1
Female| 3.5 | 93.7 1 2.6| 0.2
I35-39 1 1 1 1
Male | 6.9 1 91.2 1 1.8| 0.1
Female| 1.4 | 94.8 1 3.6| 0.2
|40-44 1 I 1 1
Male | 4.7 | 92.3 1 2.9 | 0.1
Female| 1.3 | 91.5 1 7.1| 0.2
|45-49 1 1 1 1
Male | 2.8 | 93.8 1 3.4 | 0.1
Female| 0.8 | * 88.7 1 10.4 | 0.1
150-54 1 1 1 1
Male | 3.1 | 91.8 1 5.0| 0.2
Female I 1.9 | 76.9 I 21.0 | 0.2
155-59 1 1 1 1
Male | 1.9 | 92.4 1 5.7 | 0.1
Female| 0.9 | 76.0 I 23.0 | 0.1
I60 + 1 1 I 1
Male | 2.8 | 86.0 I 11.1 | 0.2
Female I 2.6 | 42.7 I 54.5 | 0.2

Source: Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table 3.3

fixed at 16 for females and 18 for males, through the Muslim

Family Law Ordinance in 1961 [Federal Bureau of Statistics,
1987a:xxxviii; Irfan, 1981:xix]

Divorce is rare in Pakistan. Table 2.6 shows a very

low proportion of males and females in all age groups who

were divorced in the province. Because divorce is seen as a

shameful act it is also subject to underreporting. Pakistan

has one of the lowest divorce rates in the world. The

proportions of widowed in all ages 15 years and over are

higher for females than males. The incidence of widowhood

increases with age both for males and females. The

remarriage of widowed males is more common than the

remarriage of widowed females. This is an indication of the

attitude in the society where males are inclined to marry
virgins. The chance of remarriage for widowed females with
dependent children becomes still lower. However when a
divorced or widowed women gets married she is often married
to a man or widower who is much older than her [Hashmi,
1965:70-74; Shah, 1986:12-13 and 89-90].

2.2.3 Socio-Economic Characteristics

[a] Religion

Pakistan was created on the basis of Islam. "The word

Islam means submission to the will of Allah and the person

who so submits is a Moslem" [Wilber, 1963:84-85]. According

to Johnson (1979:7), "the most powerful factor in unifying

the people of Pakistan is neither race nor language, but the

common heritage of their Islamic religion".

Table 2.7

Percentage Distribution of Population by Religion

for Pakistan and its Provinces:1981

Religion I Sind 1 Punjab | NWFP 1 Baluchistan 1 Pakistan

1 _1
i 1
i i
1 i
1
Muslims I92.26 1 97.50 199.48 1 98.28 1 96.67
1 I
1 1
1 I
1 I
1
Hindu I 6.42 1 0.06 I 0.04 1 0.45 1 1.52
1
1 1
1 1 1
1 1
1
Ahamadi | 0.11 1 0.14 I 0.10 1 0.13 1 0.12
1
1 i
1
1
1 i
1 1
1
Christian I 0.93 1 2.24 1 0.35 1 0.47 1 1.56
1 1
1 1 1
1
1
1
* Others | 0.28 1 0.06 1 0.03 1 0.67 1 0.13

Note : * As each of the minorities namely Parsis, Sikhs

and Budhists constitute less than 0.1 per cent
of the total population, they are included in
"others".

Sources: Population Census Organization, 1984a:Table 2.5;

1984b:Table 2.5; 1984d:Table 2.5;
1984e:Table 2.5; 1984f:Table 2.5.
24

An Arab Muslim, Mohd Bin Qasim, arrived in Sind

around 708 A.D. He made it a province of the Muslim empire.

[Nyrop,R.F.et al, 1971:12]. Table 2.7 shows that 92.3 per

cent of Sind's total population are Muslims. Sind has a

smaller Muslim population than other provinces. Among the

minorities in Sind, the Hindus are 6.4 per cent of the total

population, whereas the proportion of Hindus in the other

provinces is insignificant. Rahman (1975:151-154) has stated

that the Hindu population in Sind was 25.3 per cent of the
total population in 1941. Even after partition, Sind has a

significant Hindu population. The majority of Hindus live in

the Tharparkar district of Sind.

[b] Language

In the 1981 Census, the question on mother tongue was

not asked in respect of every individual, but the question
was worded as ” what is the language spoken in your

household". It was revealed that 52.4 per cent of the total

households in Sind province speak Sindhi language followed
by Urdu, Punjabi, Baluchi, Pushto, Siraiki, Brahvi and

Hindko languages, spoken by 22.6, 7.7, 4.5, 3.1, 2.3, 1.1

and 0.4 per cent of the total househodls respectively

[Population Census Organization, 1984b:9 and 109-110].

Sindhi language which is the mother tongue of the

majority of the households in Sind, is quite ancient. There

is some evidence that the elements of Sindhi language have

been found in the language of the people of Mohenjo-Daro

(civilization of the third millenium B.C.,). In the court of

Harun-ur-Rashid, a Sindhi poet recited verses in Sindhi

language in the 9th century. From 1058 to 1520, Sindhi was

the court language in Sind. This was the period when Sind

remained under the rule of Soomras and Sammas

[Hasan,1975:165-166; Rahman, 1975:62].

[c] Literacy and Educational Attainment

Education being an important demographic variable is

also an indicator of socio-economic status of a person. The

lifestyle of a person is affected by education, which in

turn influences demographic behaviour. [Hull and Yeboah,

1985:183; Weller and Bouvier, 1981:10-11].

Table 2.8 shows that the literacy ratios of Sind among

population 10 years and above, 30.2 and 31.4 in the censuses

of 1972 and 1981 respectively, are highest amongst the

provinces and the nation as a whole. Table 2.9 presents the

literacy ratios in the censuses of 1972 and 1981 by sex for

population aged 10 years and over by urban and rural areas

in Sind. The definition of literacy used in the censuses of

1972 and 1981 is not very comparable, and therefore it is

not advisable to make comparisions between the two time

periods. In the 1972 census, a person (10 years and above)

who had the ability to read and write with understanding was

treated as literate. In the 1981 census, a person (10 years

and above) who had the ability to read a newspaper and write

a simple letter, in any language, was treated as literate

[Afzal, 1974:50; Population Census Organization, 1984b:ii].

The urban-rural differentials in literacy ratio, as shown in

Table 2.9, are quite visible in the censuses of 1972 and

1981.
26

Table 2.8
Literacy Ratios for Pakistan and its Provinces
1972 and 1981

Area I 1972 1 1981

i
1 1
Sind | 30.2 1 31.4
1
1 1
Punjab 1 20.7 1 27.4
1
1 1
i
NWFP | 14.5 1 16.7
i 1
1 1
Baluchistan | 10.1 1 10.3
I 1
1 1
Pakistan | 21.7 1 26.2

Note: Literacy ratio is the percentage of literates

(10 years & over) in the total population of
the same age group.
Source: Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 17

Table 2.9
Literacy Ratios by Sex for Population 10 Years and Over
bv Rural and Urban Areas in Sind
1972 and 1981

Sex, Rural/Urban | 1972 | 1981

Source: Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 17.

Table 2.9 also reveals that literacy ratios among the

female population of Sind are much lower than among the

male population. This difference becomes widest in respect

of rural urban areas. Mahmood (1978:275-277), has stated

that the presence of extremely low literacy ratios for

females in rural areas can be attributed to factors such as

non-availability of schools and teachers, and reluctance of

parents to send their daughters to school as a result of

negative attitudes towards female education. The

comparatively high literacy ratio in urban areas can be

attributed to factors such as the presence of relatively

better educational facilities in urban areas and migration

of educated rural males to urban areas for want of

employment or for continuation of further education.

"While the information on literacy provides a rough

indicator of the potential of a population to read and
write, information on educational attainment is essential
for an estimate of the actual skill levels" [Shah,1986:212].

According to the 1981 census the educated persons (those

having primary or higher level of education) in Sind form

28.1 per cent of the population aged 10 years and above as

against 23.3 per cent for the whole of Pakistan. Like

literacy ratio, the male-female and rural-urban disparities

in respect of educational attainment in Sind are quite

significant. In the 1981 census, educated females constitute

19.0 per cent against 35.8 per cent for males. Census of

1981 also reveals that the educated persons in urban areas

constitute 47.3 per cent against 12.3 per cent in rural

areas. The lower educational levels of females can be

attributed to family responsibilities, social taboos,

relatively early female marriage and other factors dicussed

in the above paragraph [Population Census Organization,
1984a:27-29; 1984b:14-15; Mahmood, 1978:267-292].

[d] Composition of Labour Force and

Working Population by Industry

In the 1981 census, the definition of economically

active population (the civilian labour force) includes

persons of 10 years and above age, of either sex, who are

working for pay or profit and those not working but looking

for work [Population Census Organization, 1984a:iii].

It is evident from Table 2.10 that the labour force

participation rate in Sind ( 27.7 per cent) is virtually the

same as 27.6 per cent for the whole of Pakistan. The labour
force participation rate in Sind is 51 for males and only 2
for females. Similar significant variation exists at the
national level. The overall labour force participation rate
of the country, which is low compared to many developing
countries, can be attributed to factors such as the quite
low female labour force participation rate and the young age

structure of the population. The lower proportion of women

in the labour force is in part due to low literacy among

women and partly due to religious factors [Finance Division,

1980:4; 1985:170-171; 1986:12-13; Irfan, 1986:xiv]. Shah

(1986:264-298) has stated that female economic activity is

seriously underreported in Pakistan. Shah has argued that in

the Pakistani society female work is generally viewed

negatively. In the censuses, the economic activity of

females reported by the head of the household, who is

Table 2.10

Percentage of Population by Economic Categories

and Unemployment Rate by Sex, Sind and Pakistan: 1981

SIND PAKISTAN
Economic Categories
Male IFemale IBoth sexes Male IFemale IBoth sexes

* LABOUR FORCE 50.881 1.98 I 27.68 50.57| 2.14 I 27.57

(Working and looking For

work)

IN LABOUR FORCE 149.12198.02 | 72.32 149.43197.86 | 72.43

1 1 1 1 1 1
* * Children below 130.47134.88 | 32.56 130.20132.60 | 31.34
10 years 1 1 1 1 1 1
i i i I I i
*** House-Keeping I----- 158.02 | 27.53 1----- 161.76 | 29.33
1 1 1 1 1 1
*** Students I 8.471 5.09 | 6.87 I 7.311 3.48 | 5.49
1 1 1
o

o
O
H
rH

*** Others 5.35 111.921 0.02 I 6.27

1 1 1 1 1 1
** UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 1 3.161 7.05 | 3.30 1 2.931 7.51 | 3.10

Notes: * Percentage of persons in labour force (10 years and above)

to the total population.

** Percentage of children below 10* year to the total population.

*** Percentage of population 10 years and above to the total

population.

**** The unemployment rate is the percentage of persons looking

for work to the total labour force.

Sources: Population Census Organization, 1984a:Table 6.1; 1 9 8 41)ITable 6.1

usually a male, is subject to underreporting. Work

participation is considered to be a status-reducing activity

for the average Pakistani woman. However, the educated

professional woman does not conform to this pattern.

It is also evident from Table 2.10 that the population

not in the labour force is composed of the children below 10

years of age, housewives, students and others. Those in the

"House-keeping" category in the female population form the

largest proportion in Sind and Pakistan. This highest

proportion can be attributed to the factors mentioned in the

above paragraph. Male and female children below 10 years

also form a substantial proportion in Sind and in the nation

as a whole. The substantial proportion in this category may

be attributed to the fact that the population of Pakistan

has a young age structure because the mortality level has

declined considerably while fertility is still quite high
[Planning Commission, 1983:400]. The unemployment rate in
Sind is slightly higher than for the nation as a whole. The

unemployment rate for females is higher than for males in

Sind and at 'the national level. The higher rates of

unemployment exist among the educated persons, mostly

school-leavers, seeking white-collar jobs [Population Census
Organization, 1984b:21-22; Finance Division, 1980:4].

An examination of the sectoral distribution of labour

force shows that over half (53 per cent) of the labour force

in Sind is engaged in Agricuture, which include forestry,

hunting and fishing. The remainder (47 per cent) are

engaged in non-agricultural activities. The percentage of

females working in each sector is extremely low compared

with that of males [Population Census Organization,

1984b:23].

2.3 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

2.3.1 Population Distribution and Density within Regions

Table 2.11 presents the population and density in the

regions and for the nation as a whole in the censuses of

1961, 1972 and 1981. Sind occupies 17.7 per cent of the

total landarea of Pakistan. Among the provinces Sind is

ranked third in respect of its share in the total land area.
Sind had the second largest population amongst the

provinces in the censuses of 1961, 1972 and 1981. Punjab

contains highest proportion of total population. Punjab with
59.4, 57.6 and 56.1 per cent of population in the censuses
of 1961, 1972 and 1981 respectively, covers 25.8 per cent of
the total land area. Baluchistan with only 3.1, 3.7 and 5.1

per cent of population in the censuses of 1961, 1972 and

1981 respectively, occupies 43.6 per cent of the total land

area.

Population density varies from region to region in

Pakistan. The population density is associated with factors

such as geographical and climatic conditions, the fertility

of soil, degree of rainfall and irrigation facilities,

degree of industrialization, availability of job

opportunities and security of life and property [Khaskhelly

et al, 1976:4-6]. The population density of Sind in 1961 was

Table 2.11

Area, Population and Penalty by Region: 1961-1981.

1 1 I★ ★ i I
1 Sind Punjab NWFP |Baluchistan FATA |Federal IPakistan
1 1 ICapital 1
1 1 IArea 1

AREA * | 1 1 1
Square 1140,914 1205,344 174 ,521 | 347,190 127 ,220 | 906 1796,095
kilometres| 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
Percentage I 17.7 25.8 9.4 | 43.6 3.4 | 0.1 1 100.0
share | i i 1
1 1 1 1
CENSUS 19611 1 1 1
1 ! 1 1
Population I 8.37 25.46 5.73 | 1.35 1.85 | 0.12 1 42.88
(in millions) i i 1
1 1 1 1
Percentage| 19.5 59.4 13.4 | 3.1 4.3 | 0.3 1 100.0
share | i i 1
1 1 1 1
Population| 59 124 77 | 4 68 | 132 1 54
density | i i 1
1 1 I
CENSUS 19721 i i 1
1 1 1 1
Population I 14.16 37.61 8.391 2.43 2.49 | 0.23 1 65.31
(in millions) i i 1
1 1 1 1
Percentage| 21.7 57.6 12.8 | 3.7 3.8 | 0.4 1 100.0
share | i i 1
1 1 1 1
Population| 100 183 113 | 7 92 | 259 1 82
density | i i 1
I 1 I
CENSUS 19811 i i 1
1 1 1 1
Population| 19.03 47.29 11.061 4.33 2.20 | 0.34 1 84.25
(in millions] i | i 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1* ★★
Percentage| 22.6 56.1 13.1 | 5.1 2.6 | 0.4 1 100.0
share | 1 1 1
1 1 I 1
Population I 135 230 148 | 12 81 ! 376 1 106.0
density | i i 1

Notes * Area as given in :

(Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 1)
** FATA stands for Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
*** Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
Sources: Population Census Organization, n.d.a:Table 1; 1985:Table 1
33

59 persons per square kilometre and in 1981 it increased to

135 persons per square kilometre. Islamabad has the highest

density due to its importance as the national capital.
Islamabad covers a very small proportion of land area with a

heavy concentration of people, mainly due to the attraction

of jobs. Punjab has remained second to Islamabad in terms of

population density. The population density of Baluchistan is

the lowest amongst the regions of Pakistan.

2.3.2 Population Distribution and Density within Districts

Population distribution and density is not uniform

amongst the districts in Sind. It is evident from Table 2.12

that Karachi, with the largest proportion of population
amongst the districts, covers a very small proportion of

total land area; this has resulted in an extraordinarily

high population density. The heavy concentration of people

in Karachi is caused by the migration from the interior of

Sind and the other provinces of Pakistan [Husain, 1981: 205-

206]. In the censuses of 1972 and 1981, Hyderabad and

Nawabshah districts were ranked second and third

respectively, in respect of population proportion and

density. Tharparkar district has the largest share in the

total land area of Sind. According to the 1981 census

Tharparkar district with the 7.9 per cent of total

population of Sind covers 20 per cent of the total land

area, whereas, Karachi with 28.6 per cent of the total

population of Sind covers only 2.5 per cent of the total

land area. The population densities of Tharparkar district

Table 2.12

Area, Population and Density by District, Sind

1972 and 1981

(Population in Millions)

| * AREA CENSUS 1972 CENSUS 1981

IKhairpur I 15,7361 11.2 | 0.73 I 5.2 | 46 | 0.98 I 5.1 1 62

1 1 1 1 1 1
|Jacobabad 1 5,2781 3.7 | 0.71 I 5.0 I 134 I 1.01 I 5.3 I 191
1 1 1 1 1 1
ISukkur 1 11,0931 7.9 | 0.97 1 6.9 1 87 I 1.10 1 5.8 1 99
I 1 1 1 1 1
1Shikarpur 1 2,841| 2.0 | 0.42 1 3.0 I 148 I 0.62 I 3.3 1 218
1 1 1 1 1 1
|Nawabshah 1 7,501| 5.3 | 1.35 I 9.5 I 180 | 1.65 I 8.7 1 220
1 1 1 1 1 1
|Larkana 1 7,4231 5.3 | 0.92 1 6.5 I 124 I 1.14 I 6.0 1 153
1 i 1 1 1 1
ISanghar I 10,7291 7.6 | 0.69 I 4.9 1 64 I 0.92 I 4.8 I 86
1 1 1 1 1 1
ITharparkar I 28r170| 20.0 | 1.02 1 7.2 l 36 I 1.50 1 7.9 1 53

IDadu | 19,0161 13.5 | 0.81 I 5.7 1 43 I 1.08 I 5.7 1 57

1 1 1 1 1 1
IHyderabad I 5,683| 4.0 | 1.78 1 12.5 I 313 I 2.05 1 10.7 I 361
1 1 1 1 1 1
IThatta I 17,3551 12.3 | 0.68 I 4.8 1 39 I 0.76 | 4.0 I 44
1 1 1 1 1 1
13adin 1 6,5621 4.7 | 0.47 1 3.3 1 72 I 0.78 1 4.1 I 118
1 1 1 1 1 1
|Karachi 1 3,527| 2.5 | 3.61 I 25.5 11024 I 5.44 I 28.6 11542
I(Division) 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 l 1 1
|Sind I140,914| 100.0 14.16 1100.0 I 100 I 19.03 1100.0 I 135

Note: * Area as given in:

Population Census Organization, 1984b: 7

Sources: For 1972: Bureau of Statistics, 1980:Table 2.03

For 1981: Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table 2.3

and Karachi are 53 and 1542 persons per square kilometre

respectively.

2.3.3 Urban-Rural Population Distribution Within Regions

The distribution between urban and rural population in

every census depends on the definition of what constituted

an urban population. According to the 1961 and 1972 census

definitions, the urban areas include Municipal Corporations,

Municipal Committees, Cantonment Boards and Town Committees.

Other places containing at least 5000 people living in a

continuous collection of houses and having urban

characteristics were also treated as urban. As a special

case, a few areas with less than 5,000 population but which

had the urban characteristics, were also treated as urban

[Census Commissioner, n.d:11-30; Census Organization,

n.d.ativ]. According to the 1981 census definitions: "All
localities which were either Metropolitan Corporation,
Municipal Corporation, Municipal Committee, Town Committee
or Cantonment at the time of census, were treated as urban"

[Population Census. Organization, 1984a:ii].

The Percentage distribution of population by urban-

rural areas for Sind and other areas of Pakistan is given in

Table 2.13. All three censuses from 1961 to 1981 show that

the percentage of population in urban areas is increasing.

Pakistan is still predominantly a rural nation where,

according to the 1981 census, 71.7 per cent of people live

Table 2.13

Percentage Distribution of Population in Urban and Rural

Areas by Region: 1961-1981

1 Census 1961 | Census 1972 | Census 1981

Kegion |■
1 Urban 1 Rural | Urban 1 Rural | Urban 1 Rural
1 i.
1 i.
1 i.
1
Sind | 37.9 1 62.1 | 40.4 1 59.6 | 43.3 1 56.7
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
Punjab | 21.3 1 78.7 | 24.4 1 75.6 | 27.6 1 72.4
1
1 i
1 1
1 i
1
NWFP | 13.2 1 86.8 | 14.3 1 85.7 | 15.1 1 84.9
1
1 1
1 1 I
1

00
Baluchistan| 16.9 1 83.1 | 16.5 1 83.5 | 15.6 1
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
FATA | 1.3 1 98.7 | 0.5 1 99.5 | —
1 100.0
1
1 1
1 1
1 i
1
Federal | —
1 100.0 I 32.6 1 67.4 | 60.0 1 40.0
Capital Areal 1 1 1
(Islamabad) | 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
Pakistan | 22.5 1 77.5 | 25.4 1 74.6 | 28.3 1 71.7

Sources: Population Census Organization, n.d.a:Table 3;

1985:Table 1.
37

in rural areas. Table 2.13 reveals that Sind is the most

urbanised province of Pakistan. It is followed by Punjab,
Baluchistan and the NWFP.

2.3.4 Urban-Rural Population Distribution within Districts.

Urban-Rural population distribution is not uniform

amongst the districts of Sind. Table 2.14 presents the

proportion of population living in urban and rural areas of

the districts. Sind is predominantly a rural province where,

according to the 1981 census, 56.7 per cent of people live

in rural areas. In Sind the proportion of urban population

(43.3 in the 1981 census) would be lower, if Karachi (the

provincial capital) were excluded, as 95.7 per cent of

karachi's population is urban. After Karachi, Hyderabad and

Sukkur maintained their positions as the second and third

most urbanized districts respectively in the censuses of
1961, 1972 and 1981. Thatta is the most backward districts
in Sind in terms of urbanization, with only 5.8, 12.5 and

9.6 per cent of population living in urban areas in the

censuses of 1961, 1972 and 1981 respectively.

Table 2.14

Percentage Distribution of Population in Urban and Rural

Areas by District, Sind: 1961-1981

CENSUS 1961 CENSUS 1972 | CENSUS 1981

oo
o
Nawabshah 14.0 | 16.1 1 83.9
1
1 i I
1
Larkana 16.2 1 83.8 17.5 | 82.5 | 22.5 1 77.5
1
1 1 I
1
Sanghar 16.4 1 83.6 19.0 | 81.0 | 21.4 1 78.6
1
1 1
1
Tharparkar 12.9 1 87.1 16.3 | 83.7 | 17.1 1 82.9
1
1 I i
1
Dadu 11.3 1 88.7 12.6 | 87.4 | 14.0 1 86.0
1
1 1 I
1
Hyderabad 40.0 1 60.0 36.0 | 64.0 | 44.3 1 55.7
1
1 1 1
1
Thatta 5.8 1 94.2 12.5 | 87.5 | 9.6 1 90.4
I
1 1 I
1
*Badin — 1 — --- | ---- | 10.5 1 89.5
1
1 I
1 I
1
Karachi(Div) 93.6 1 6.4 97.5 | 2.5 | 95.7 1 4.3
1
1 1 i
1
Sind 37.8 1 62.2 40.4 ! 59.6 | 43.3 1 56.7

Note: * Shikarpur and Badin districts were formed during the

intercensal period 1972-81, hence the population of
Shikarpur district is included in Sukkur district and
the population of Badin district is included in
Hyderabad and Thatta districts in the 1961 and 1972
censuses.

Sources: Sind Regional Plan Organization, 1979:Table 2.5

Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 1 and 3.

CHAPTER THREE

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH

"Fertility, mortality and migration are the three key

demographic variables. They combine to produce changes in

population size, distribution, and composition. A complex

interaction of social, economic, cultural and physiological

factors affects levels of fertility, mortality and

migration. In turn, prevailing (and past) levels of these

three demographic variables affect our society and the world

in which we live"[Weller and Bouvier, 1981:109]. This

chapter examines the levels and trends of fertility,
mortality and migration in respect of Pakistan and its

provinces, especially Sind.

3.1 FERTILITY
3.1.1 Levels and Trends of Fertility

Pakistan has been experiencing a high level of

fertility. The censuses from 1881 to 1941 reveal the Crude

Birth Rate (CBR) varied between 45 and 49. The 1968 National

Impact Survey yielded a CBR of 39 for 1967-68, whereas the

1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey suggested a CBR of 40.5 for

1974-75 [Shah, 1986,71-72; Irfan, 1986:xix]. In Pakistan the

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was high and stable at about 7.2

during the 1950s and 1960s [Lieberman, 1982:89]. Retherford

et al (1987:1-10) have observed that the fertility has not

dropped in Pakistan during the two decades or so preceding

the 1981 census. The TFR has rather increased from somewhat
40

below 7 to somewhat above 7. Alam (1984, cited in Retherford

et al, 1987:1) states that the TFR has declined to 6.3 in

1975 according to the findings of the Pakistan Fertility

Survey, and most of the decline in TFR was attributed to the

rise in the age at marriage. However, the 197 6 Population

Growth Survey suggested the TFR of 7, whereas, the TFR

revealed by the 1984-85 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence

Survey was 5.95 [Federal Bureau of Statistics, 1981:46;

Population Welfare Division, 1986:Table V.3]. The rates

which have been derived from the sample surveys may not be

strictly comparable as they are subject to sampling and non

sampling errors of different magnitude. Reynolds (1987:2)

states that "Between 1960 and the present, Pakistan has

tried a number of strategies to bring down the birth rate.

They all seemed appropriate at the time, but none were as
effective as had been hoped". Shah (1986:87) states that, in
Pakistan, marriage is universal, and the use of
contraceptive is limited and fertility is almost wholly

confined to married life. Hence in this situation the age

at which women enter into their first union is one of the
important determinants of fertility.

The mean age at marriage for males increased by 1.8

years between 1961 and 1981, whereas in the case of females

it increased by 3.5 years during the same period. The mean

age at marriage for males and females was 23.3 and 16.7

years respectively in 1961 and these figures rose to 25.1

and 20.2 years respectively in 1981 [Federal Bureau of

Statistics, 1987a:xxxviii]. Shah (1986:91-94) has stated

that the rise in mean age at marriage especially the

substantial rise in the female mean age at marriage after

1960 may be attributed to the factors such as the
introduction of Muslim Family Law Ordinance in 1961 (as

discussed in section 2.2.2) and improved socio-economic

conditions such as increased agricultural productivity and

rapid industrialization in 1960s.

Thus, in the light of the above discussions it can be

observed that fertility has dropped in Pakistan from 7.2 in

the 1950s to 5.95 in 1984-85. Most of the decline in

fertility is attributed to the rise in age at marriage.

Therefore the family planning programme which was launched

officially in 1965, has not had much effect in lowering the

fertility.

3.1.2 Provincial Fertility Differentials

Table 3.1 shows that all the provinces have experienced

a decline in fertility pattern between 1976 and 1984-85. The
decline in TFR has been more pronounced in Sind (21 per
cent). The other three provinces, namely NWFP, Punjab and
Baluchistan, show declines of 17, 14 and 4 per cent

respectively. A similar decline in the level of GRR has been

observed in all the provinces. Among the provinces, Sind,

the most urbanised, has the lowest level of TFR in the 1976
Population Growth Survey and the 1984-85 Pakistan

Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. From Table 3.1 it is

evident that the age specific fertility rates rises sharply

from age group 15-19 to the next age group 20-24; after

that, in the majority of cases, the rates reaches the peak

in the age group 25-29; and then declines, first slowly up

Table 3.1

Age Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rates and

Gross Reproduction Rates for Pakistan and its Provinces

1976 PGS and 1984-85 PCPS

1 Age Group Sind I Punjab | NWFP IBaluchistan|Pakistan|

1
1 i i i
1976 Population Growth Survey

1(1) 15-19 1 61.7 I 50.5 I 70.7 I 79.9 1 56.3 |

20-24 1 234.3 ! 279.6 I 304.6 | 251.1 1 271.2 |
25-29 1 327.9 I 365.9 I 327.1 | 283.9 1 348.2 |
30-34 1 254.1 1 327.0 I 306.2 1 298.9 1 305.4 |
35-39 1 225.7 1 236.7 I 178.9 I 196.5 1 225.7 |
40-44 1 136.2 I 122.1 I 117.5 I 191.4 1 127.6 |
1(2) 45-49 1 74.2 I 58.0 I 93.0 I 261.1 1 72.5 |
TFR 1 6.6 1 7.2 I 7.0 I 7.8 1 7.0 |
GRR 1 3.2 I 3.5 I 3.4 I 3.8 1 3.4 |

1984- 85 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey |

15-19 1 76.03 1 56.85 1 78.19 | 52.64 1 63.52 |
20-24 1 187.71 1243.23 I159.82 | 311.51 1 222.63 |
25-29 1 214.98 1286.90 1243.59 I 275.65 1 263.39 |
30-34 1 218.53 1226.39 1272.33 I 281.06 1 234.20 |
35-39 1 177.87 1224.69 |166.69 I 294.53 1 208.91 |
40-44 1 92.31 I131.65 I148.81 | 143.81 1 126.79 |
45-49 1 74.22 I 63.47 I 93.00 | 142.71 1 71.03 |
TFR 1 5.21 I 6.17 I 5.81 I 7.51 1 5.95 |
GRR 1 2.54 1 3.01 I 2.83 | 3.66 1 2.90 |

Notes: (1) Some reported births of the age-group 10-14

included in this age group.

(2) Some reported births of the age-group 50-54

included in this age group.

Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics, 1981.

Population Welfare Division, 1986:Table V.3.

to age 35-39 and then rapidly. In Sind the highest fertility

is concentrated in age group 25-29 as suggested by the 1976
Population Growth Survey. However, the 1984-85 Pakistan

Contraceptive Prevalence Survey yielded a little difference

between the fertility levels for age group 25-29 and 30-34

in Sind Province.
In Pakistan fertility is thought to be a blessing

while childlessness is a cause for pity. Motherhood is

highly respected in Pakistani society [Shah, 1986:6]. The

high fertility in Pakistan is attributed to a variety of

factors; hence among other factors, the infant and child

mortality which is quite high in Pakistan, also leads to the

high fertility. Lactation which is one of the natural

methods of fertility regulation is stopped by the death of

infant, hence the length of birth interval is reduced.

Furthermore, the parents whose male offspring died,
compensated for the loss of the child by having more
children, more than those whose female offspring died.
Parents always want to have children in general but male

offspring are preferred. The preference for sons •is

attributed to the consideration that sons continue the

family name and provide social and economic security for

parents in old age, whereas daughters after marriage belong

to their husband's family [Rukanuddin, 1982:297-373;

Irfan,1986:xx-xxi]
44

3.2 MORTALITY

3.2.1 Levels and Trends of Mortality

Mortality is one of the basic determinants of

population change [Hashmi,1965:112]. The growth of

population was closer to 1 per cent per annum in the area

now constituting Pakistan during the period 1901-1951.

However, Pakistan has witnessed remarkable growth in its

population between 1951 and 1981. During this period the

population growth rate, being closer to 3 per cent per

annum, is one of the highest growth rates of population in

the world [Soomro and Farooqui, 1985:605; Farooqui and

Soomro, 1984:225]. The fast rate at which the population of

Pakistan has been growing since 1950 is primarily the result

of a very sharp decline in the mortality rates, which has
been accompanied by a fairly slow decline in fertility rates
[Planning Commission, 1978:391]. The crude death rate was
42.6 per 1000 population during the period 1901-1911. It
declined gradually to about 30 per 1000 population by 1950.
This decline is mainly attributed to the control of

smallpox, cholera and plague. The crude death rate further

declined to 10.5 per 1000 population as suggested by the

1976-1979 Population Growth Survey. The decline in the crude

death rate after 1950 is mainly attributed to the

improvements in medical facilities and sanitary conditions.

The average life expectancy at birth in the period 1962-65

was higher for males (48 years) than for females (45 years),

a situation which was common throughout the South Asia

region at that time. The 1976-1979 Population Growth Survey

suggested a rise in life expectancy at birth to 56.1 years

for males and 57 years for females. The infant mortality
rate declined from 139 per thousand live births during the

period 1951-1961 to 94 per thousand live births at the time

of 1976-1979 Population Growth Survey. In spite of this

decline, the infant mortality rate still remains very high.

The corresponding infant mortality rates, as recorded for

the period 1970-74 in three Asian countries namely

Singapore, Hongkong and Japan were 19.3, 17.5 and 11.8

respectively. The infant mortality rate in Pakistan can be

reduced further if the nutritional status, health facilities

and environmental conditions are improved. [Shah,1986:66;

Irfan, 1986:Tables 1,4 and 11; Afzal, 1974:17-22; Health and

Social Welfare Division, 1979:iii; Federal Bureau of

Statistics, 1981:54; Ueda, 1983:Table 4-1].

3.2.2 Provincial Mortality Differentials

The Crude Death Rates in four provinces shown in

Table 3.2 suggest that the Crude Death Rate in Punjab is

highest followed by NWFP, Sind and Baluchistan. In Pakistan,

the health facilities are concentrated in urban areas, hence

Sind, the most urbanised province, is more likely to have

the lowest Crude Death Rate amongst the provinces. Irfan

(1986:18) has adjusted the Crude Death Rates in respect of

four provinces of Pakistan after estimating the completeness

of death enumeration for each of the provinces. The adjusted

along with unadjusted Crude Death Rates are presented in

Table 3.2. It is evident from the adjusted Crude Death Rates

that Sind has the lowest Crude Death Rate amongst the
Table 3.2
Unadjusted and Adjusted Crude Death Rates for
Four Provinces of Pakistan: 1976-1979 PGS

Crude Death Rate Per 1000 Population

Area
1 Unadjusted | Adjusted
1
1 1_
1
1 1
Sind 1 9.2 | 13.5
1
1 I
1
Punjab 1 11.2 | 14.6
1
1
NWFP 1 10.7 | 17.6
1
1 I

Baluchistan 1 7.1 17.6

Note: PGS stands for Population Growth Survey

Source: Irfan, 1986: Table 16.

Table 3.3
Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy at Birth
by Sex for Pakistan and its Provinces: 1976-1979 PGS

1 1 Infant Mortality Rate 1 Life Expectancy

I Area | (Per 1000 live births) I At Birth
i
1 1i - i
i
1 1 Male | Female |Both Sexes| Male I Female
i
1 1i-* — — 1 i
1 1i 1
i
1Sind | 88 | 65 1 77 | 56.0 I 57.3
i
1 1
1 1 I I 1
1
IPunjab | 109 | 89 1 100 | 56.4 I 57.5
I
1 1
1 1 1 I 1
|NWFP | 117 | 101 1 110 | 56.5 1 54.4
1
1 1i 1 1
1 11 |
1
|Baluchistan| 72 | 56 1 64 | 52.5 | 52.0
I
1 I1 1
1 i
1 I1 i
1
IPakistan | 102 | 86 1 94 | 56.1 1 57.0

Source: Irfan, 1986:Tables 4,11,12 and 18.

provinces. Irfan (1986:17) mentions that, this is in line

with the fact that Sind is the most urbanized province of

Pakistan, whereas the NWFP and Baluchistan being less

socio-economically developed than Sind and Punjab have the

highest Crude Death Rates.

The infant mortality rate is of particular importance

as it is an important indicator of socio-economic

conditions, cultural factors, status of hygiene and

availability of medical services in a country [Federal

Bureau of Statistics, 1987a:l]. Table 3.3 shows the infant

mortality rates by sex in four Provinces of Pakistan as

obtained from the 1976-1979 Population Growth Survey. There

are wide differences in the infant mortality rates of the

provinces. In Sind the infant mortality rate for males and

females is lower than the national level and also lower than
for Punjab and NWFP. A possible explanation for the low
infant mortality rate in Sind is that Sind's literacy level
is highest amongst the provinces and Sind is also the most

urbanized province of Pakistan. Baluchistan shows the lowest

infant mortality rate amongst the provinces in spite of the

fact that Baluchistan is less developed than Sind and

Punjab. Irfan (1986:19) has argued that death enumeration is

more complete and has better coverage in Punjab than NWFP

and Baluchistan.

Life expectancy at birth is a measure based on

mortality experience at all ages and is independent of the

effects of age structure. The life expectancy at birth by

sex for the four provinces of Pakistan as obtained from the

1976-1979 Population Growth Survey is also presented in

Table 3.3. The life expectancy at birth for females in Sind

and Punjab is slightly higher than for males, whereas in
NWFP and Baluchistan males live longer than females.

Baluchistan experiences the lowest life expectancy amongst

the provinces. This indicates that the pattern of lower

female life expectancy at birth has been reversed in Sind

and Punjab, and that this is probably linked to the greater
socio-economic development in those provinces as compared to

NWFP and Baluchistan [Irfan, 1986:16].

3.3 MIGRATION

Migration tends to change the population size and

distribution when combines with fertility and mortality.
Migration patterns may affect on a large scale both the
migrant individuals and the society in which those migrants
live [Weller and Bouvier, 1981:207]. This section deals with
the internal migration (movement within a country) in

Pakistan. Khoo and Rowland (1985:167) have stated that

"Internal migration is often the main cause of changes in

the size and composition of community and regional

populations".

3.3.1 Volume and Patterns of Migration in the Provinces

of Pakistan

Table 3.4 gives the detail of migrants and non-migrants

in the urban and rural populations of Pakistan and its four

provinces. The terms "non-migrant", "long-term migrant" and

Table 3,4

Number and Percentage of Non-migranta, Long-term Migrants and

Recent Migrants acred 10 & Above by Residence and Urban Rural Area«

for Pakistan and its provinces: 1973

(Population in 000's)

Urban Rural

IResidence Total |Non- Long Recent ITotal |Non Long Recent

Popul-I migrants term migrants IP o p u l - Imigrants term migrants
ation I migrants Iation I Migrants

ISind 1 4,3091 50.1 1 39.9 1 10.0 1 5,5131 92.5 1 5.6 1 1.9

IPunjab 1 6,4801 59.4 1 31.1 1 9.5 119, 9 3 4 | 79.3 1 17.4 1 3.3
INWFP 1 7681 78.6 1 11.0 1 10.4 1 3,4481 92.7 1 4.2 1 3.1
IBaluchistan 2991 77.2 1 13.8 1 9.0 1 1, 6281 94.0 1 3.6 1 2.4
IPakistan 111,8561 57.7 1 32.6 1 9.7 130 , 5 2 3 | 84.0 1 13.1 1 2.9

Source: SHAH, 1986: Table 4.1.

Table 3.5

Sex Ratio of Long-term Migrants and Recent Migrants Aged 10 years

£ Above by Residence for Pakistan and its Provinces: 1973

Residence | Total Migrants Long-term Migrants 1 Recent Migrants

Sind | 130 128 1 142

P u njab | 116 116 1 113
NWFP | 144 139 1 149
Bal u c h istan | 146 I 140 1 154
Pakistan | 121 I 120 1 124

Source: SHAH, 1986: Table 4.6.

"recent migrant" used in this table need to be explained

before the data in this table is interpreted:
1. Non-migrants include persons who have never moved- that
is, their place of birth is the same as their residence in

1965 and in 1973 [Shah, 1986:113].

2. Long-term migrants include the persons who came to the

district of current residence before 1965 [Shah,1986:113].

3. Recent migrants include the persons who came to the

district of current residence between 1965 and 1973 [Shah,

1986:113].

Sind, the most urbanised province, is in the leading

position amongst the provinces in terms of receiving long

term migrants in its urban areas, followed by Punjab,

Baluchistan and NWFP. The percentage of migrants is much

smaller within rural areas in the provinces. Among the urban

areas of Sind, 50 per cent of the population has never moved
whereas 50 per cent are in-migrants (40 per cent long-term
migrants and 10 per cent recent migrants). Shah (1986:114)
has stated that most of the long-term migrants in Sind came

from India.

3.3.2 Sex Ratio of Migrants in the Provinces of

Pakistan.

Table 3.5 indicates that the sex ratio of long-term

migrants and recent migrants in Sind is lower than in NWFP

and Baluchistan. Hence the migration in Sind is less male-

dominated compared with NWFP and Baluchistan. All the

provinces except Punjab show a high sex ratio for recent

migrants compared to long-term migrants.

3.3.3 Inter-provincial Migration

Censuses of 1951 and 1961 reveal that the migration to

Sind has been much greater than to any other province
[Afzal, 1974:62-64], However, this trend continued in the

1973 HED survey and the 1981 census. Tables 3.6 and 3.7

present data on the inter-provincial migration in Pakistan

in 1973 and 1981.

It is evident from Table 3.6 that Sind received a
substantial number of net migrants from other provinces in

1973 and 1981. Punjab experienced balanced in and out

migration, whereas NWFP and Baluchistan lost persons to

other provinces in 1973. In 1981, Punjab, NWFP and

Baluchistan lost persons to other provinces whereas

Islamabad (the national capital) received some number of
net-migrants from all the provinces.
It is evident from Table 3.7 that Sind received a major
proportion of its migrants from Punjab in 1973 and 1981. Out

of the total number of migrants from other provinces in

1973, Sind received 57 per cent from Punjab, 28 per cent
from NWFP and 8 per cent from Baluchistan. The pattern of

migrants to Sind in 1981, was similar to that in 1973, where

the majority of the migrants to Sind came from Punjab

followed by NWFP and Baluchistan. Husain (1981:205-206) has

observed that the migrants in large number to Sind is mainly

attributed to the fact that migrants from other provinces

are attracted by the vast opportunities which the industrial

and commercial activities of Karachi offers them.

Table 3.6

Total Population, In-migrants, Out-migrants and Net migrants

in the Provinces of Pakistan

1973 and 1981

1 IIn-migrants IOut-migrants|
Province | Total | from other | to other |Net-migrants
| Population I provinces I provinces |
! | and FATA 1 1
---------- «------------ ■1----------- ■1------------1------------
1973
Sind | 14,168,164 | 296,019 | 107,027 1 + 188,992
I
1 1
1 1 i
1
Punjab | 37,517,820 | 253,784 | 252,863 1 + 921
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
NWFP | 6,127,517 | 116,578 | 204,268 1 - 87,690
1
1 1
1 1 1
1
Baluchistan| 2,696,034 | 29,982 | 68,580 1 - 38,598
1981
Sind | 19,028,666 | 1,067,397 | 121,942 1 + 945,455
1
1 1
1 1 1
1
Punjab | 47,292,441 | 355,971 | 849,043 1 493,072
-

1
1 1
1 1 1
1
NWFP | 11,061,328 | 185,893 | 614,604 1 428,711
-

1
1 i
1 1
1 1
1
Baluchistan| 4,332,376 | 97,047 | 113,475 1 -16,428
1
1 1 1 1
1
Islamabad | 340,286 I 84,329 | 8,211 1 + 76,118

Note: (1) FATA stands for Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

(2) This table excludes migration data by present

residence for FATA in 1981 and both FATA and
Malakand division of NWFP in 1973, as the
question on migration was not asked there.

(3) The figures of Islamabad for 1973 are included

in the Punjab Province.

Sources: Population Census Organization, 1985: Tables 1 and 27

Census Organization, n.d.b; n.d.c; n.d.d; n.d.e

Table 3.7

Percentage Distribution of Inter-Provincial Migration in Pakistan

1973 and 1981

1Sind | 100 I--- |56.80|28.07| 8.43 I 6.701

1 1 i
1 i
1 i 1 i 1 1
1 I
1 1I
IPunjab | 100 1 3 1 . 8 6 1 ----145.111 15.84 1 7.191
1
i 11 I I I I 1
1 1 1
|NWFP | 100 114.37161.661----| 2.94 121.021
1 1
1 i
I i
I Ii i
I 1
1 I
1 I
1
IBaluchistan| 100 131.42|42.78122.29| —
1 3.511

1981
ISind | 100 I --- 159.17134.631 5.34 I 0.20 1 0.661
1
1 11 i
I i
I Ii i
I 1
1 i
1 1I
IPunjab | 100 1 2 5 . 8 6 1 ----155.301 15.25 1 1.40 I 2.181
1
i 1
i 1 1 I

|NWFP | 100 1 8.68153.291----| 0.96 I 0.51 36.561

1
1 1i I
I I
I I
I I
I |
1 I
1 1I
IBaluchistan| 100 |10.90158.14|30.39| I 0.11 1 0.47|
1
1 11 I
I I
I I
I I
I 1
1 i
1 I
1
IIslamabad | 100 1 3 . 7 5 |7 3 . 5 0 |2 2 . 0 4 | 0.49 I 0.22|

Notes: (1) FATA stands for Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

(2) This table excludes migration data by present
residence for FATA in 1981 and both FATA and
divisions of NWFP in 1973 as the question on
migration was not asked there.

(3) The figures of Islamabad for 1973 are included

in the Punjab Province.

(4) Percentages may not add up to 100 per cent

because of rounding.

Source: Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 27.

CHAPTER FOUR

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SIND PROVINCE (1981-2016)

Population projections and other demographic estimates

are very important to the Government or private planners

[Shryock and Siegel, 1971:771]. Population projections are

used as the analytical instruments to study the influences

of the three major demographic variables- fertility,

mortality and migration on population growth and structure.

Population projections also play an important role in

assessing the effects of demographic factors on socio

economic development of the country [United Nations, 1981:6-
8] . This chapter deals with population projections for

Province for the period of 35 years from 1981. The component

method of projection has been used to prepare population

projections by sex and age groups. The computer package

programme FIVFIV/SINSIN [Shorter and Pasta, 1974:7-8] was
used with the West Family of Life Tables, prepared by Coale
and Demeny [1966]. Previous to these projections, Salahuddin
and Khan (1984) have made population projections for Sind,

but their projections were for 10 years only (1982-1992) and

employed simple application of growth rates to base year

data.

4.1 Adjusting of Base Year Age Distribution Data for

Digit Preference

The base year data on age distribution of population

used for the population projections of Sind are from the

1981 census report of Sind Province, and suffer from

extensive age misreporting. Whipple's index for Sind

province in the 1981 census, 320 for males and 319 for

females, shows a very high degree of heaping for digits

ending in zero or five [Federal Bureau of Statistics,

1987a:XXX]. Keeping in view the distortion of age

distribution data in the 1981 census, the age distribution

data have been adjusted for digit preference by the Gray

method before making population projections. The basic

assumption under the Gray method is that the sum of any ten

enumerated values for single ages is approximately correct

and unbiased. Three linear operators can be used in
adjusting data. Slightly irregular data may be adjusted with

the Qi linear operator; greater irregularity in the data

should be dealt with the Q2 linear operator and the Q 3

linear operator should be used when greater smoothing is

unavoidable. By the use of any one of these linear
operators, the raw census data for ages surrounding the
selected age are aligned with the weights and the weighted
sum of the values is calculated [Gray, 1987:11-22]. Before

making population projections for this study, the age

distribution data of the base year have been adjusted by the
Q 2 linear operator using a computer programme in FORTRAN.

4.2 Assumptions of Future Trends of Population

Population projections for Sind Province have been

prepared under three sets of assumptions (high, medium and

low) . Fertility has been assumed to be constant throughout

the projection period under the high variant; a moderate

fertility decline is assumed under the medium variant and a

fast decline under the low variant. Mortality has been

assumed to be declining throughout the projection period and

the same mortality trend has been assumed in each series.

Net international migration has been treated as nil. The net

internal migration has been assumed to be the same for each

set of assumptions.

4.2.1 Fertility Assumptions

The TFR in Pakistan was stable at about 7.2 during

the 1950s and 1960s [Lieberman, 1982:89]. Retherford et al

(1987:1-10) has examined the trends in the Total Fertility

Rates, which are estimated by applying the own-children

method to three successive household surveys and a census

conducted in Pakistan: the 1973 Housing, Economic and
Demographic (HED) Survey; the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey
(PFS); the 1979 Population, Labour Force and Migration (PLM)

Survey; and the 1981 Census. They reached the conclusion

that the fertility did not drop in Pakistan during the two
decades or so preceding the 1981 census. They also concluded

that the TFR has instead increased from somewhat below 7 to

somewhat above 7.

In the light of the above discussion it has been

assumed under the high series of projections that the TFR

of Sind, which was 5.21 in 1984-85 [see Table 4.1], will

remain constant throughout the projection period.

A moderate decline in fertility has been assumed in

the medium series of projections. The TFR under this

assumption will decline linearly from 5.21 to 4.08 during

Table 4.1

Fertility ABsuxirptlons for the Projection Period: 1981-2016

Fertility Level (Total Fer t i l i t y Rate)

Assump t i ons
1981-86 1198 6 - 9 1 11991-96 I1 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 1 12001-2006 I200 6 - 2 0 1 1 12011-2016

Constant * 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21

M oderate
Linear 5.21 5.00 4.80 4.61 4.43 4.25 4.08
Decline

Fast
Linear 5.21 4.77 4.36 3.99 3.65 3.34 3.06
Decline

Notes.: * Based on the Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, 1984-85,

[Population Welfare Division, 1986:Table V.3]

Table 4.2

Mortality Assumptions for the Projection Period: 1981-2016

Mortality Level (Expectation of Life at Birth)

11981-86 11986-91 1 1991-9611996-2001 12001-2006 12006-2011 12011-20161

■* 1---- --- 1 ------- |---------
Male |*55.00 | 57.20 I 59.40 | 61.45 I 63.35 I 65.1 I 66.3 |
1 1 1
Female 1*54.00 I 56.50 | 58.90 | 61.20 | 63.40 I 65.5 I 67.5 |

Note: * Based on The Sixth Five Year Plan Of Pakistan, 1983-88

[Planning Commission, 1983:364]

The assumed decline in mortality is according to the United Nations

model for mortality decline [United Nations, 1981:281,Table 4]
58

the period 1981-2016 (a drop of 4 per cent during every five

year period) . A fast decline in fertility has been assumed
under the low series of projections. The TFR under this

assumption will decline from 5.21 to 3.06 during the period

1981-2016 (a drop of 8.5 per cent during every five years).

The high variant results in the highest possible

growth of population and reveals the consequences of largely

uncontrolled fertility. It is unlikely that the population

of Sind will grow at such a fast rate, in the presence of

the Population Welfare Programme. The moderate decline in

TFR (medium variant) is subject to moderate success in

achieving the objectives of the Population Welfare Programme
in the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) . The fast decline in

TFR (low variant) is subject to the complete achievement of

objectives of the Population Welfare Programmes as mentioned
in the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) . The Total Fertility
Rates assumed for the three projection series are given in
Table 4.1.
The Population Welfare Programme in the Sixth Five
Year Plan (1983-88) contains a number of important

objectives to reduce the fertility level. The Population

Welfare Plan, 1981-84, which is also carried out in the

Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) contains activities such as

mother care, child health, social education and motivational

campaigns [Planning Commission, 1983:399-418; Irfan;

1986:46].
59

4.2.2 Mortality Assumptions

The Crude Death Rate in Pakistan was 30 in 1947, but

has declined to 10.5 as suggested by the 1976-1979

Population Growth Survey. The Infant Mortality Rate in

Pakistan was 139 during 1951-61. The 1976-1979 Population

Growth Survey has suggested an Infant Mortality Rate of 94.

The average life expectancy at birth stood at 48 years for

males and nearly 45 years for females in the period 1962-65.

The Planning Commission in the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983 —

88) suggested a rise in life expectancy at birth to 55 years

for males and 54 years for females in 1983, a gain in life

expectancy of 7 years and 9 years for males and females

respectively [Afzal, 1974:21-22; Finance Division, 1985:xiii

; Irfan, 1986:Tables 1 and 4 ; Planning Commission,
1983:364].
At the time of Independence, Pakistan had insufficient
health and medical facilities, which have gradually been
extended. According to the Government's health policies as
depicted in the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88), the

Government is determined to reduce communicable diseases and

prevent the occurrence of disabilities. Malnutrition among

children will be eliminated and they will be protected

against six preventable diseases; diphtheria, pertussis,

tetanus, polio-myelitis, measles and tuberculosis. The

increase in health manpower is also a part of the policy

[Finance Division, 1983:169; Planning Commission, 1983:363-

391] . Keeping in view the past trends in the mortality

situation and Governments health policy as mentioned in the

Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) , it can be assumed that the

mortality conditions will improve further and the

expectation of life will increase faster. The United Nations

working model [United Nations, 1981:281, Table 4] has been

used to assume the quinquennial gains in life expectancy at

birth from 1981 to 2016. The assumptions regarding life

expectancy values from 1981-2016 are set out in Table 4.2.

It may be added here that the life expectancy values for

males and females for the period 1981-86 used in the

mortality assumption do not belong to Sind, but they are

estimated for the whole of Pakistan for the year 1983 in the

Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) . The mortality assumption

based on life expectancy values for the whole of Pakistan

instead of values for Sind is subject to the assumption that

life expectancies in respect of males and females of

Pakistan and Sind are nearly same. The 1976-1979 Population

Growth Survey suggested about the same life expectancies in
respect of males and females for Sind and Pakistan [see
Chapter Three Table 3.3]. Hence considering the life
expectancy values by sex in the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-

88) , the more plausible, they have been accepted to use as

the life expectancies for the period 1981-86 in the

mortality assumption.

4.2.3 Internal Migration Assumptions

Figures pertaining to the Inter-Provincial migration

after independence of Pakistan show that the Province of

Sind has gained the largest number of net migrants amongst

the provinces in the censuses of 1951, 1961, 1972 and 1981

respectively. Karachi, being the biggest commercial and

Table 4.3

Internal Migration Assumption» for The Projection Period; 1981-2016

— i
| | * Yearly Age Specific Migration Rates Per 1000 Population
| | by Age and Sex

1 1 Male I Female

1 0-4 | 1.38 I 1.25

1 1 1
1 5-9 | 1.53 I 1.41
1
1.77 1 1.55
O
M
1

1 1 1
I 15-19 | 3.13 | 2.06
1 1 1
I 20-24 | 4.51 I 2.42
1 1 1
1 25-29 | 4.10 I 2.34
1 1 1
I 30-34 | 3.83 1 1.88
1 1 1
I 35-39 | 3.51 I 1.79
1
2.93 I 1.53
Xk
0
1

1 1 1
I 45-49 | 2.35 I 1.37
1 1 1
I 50-54 | 2.06 | 1.44
1 1 1
I 55-59 | 1.63 | 1.27
1 1 1
I 60-64 | 1.47 I 1.08
1 1 1
| 65-69 | 1.47 | 1.08
1 1 1
| 70-74 | 1.47 I 1.08
1 1 1
1 75+ | 1.47 I 1.08

Note: * Average yearly net migration to Sind between

February 1976 and March 1981.

Source: Derived from:

Population Census Organization, 1984b:17-20 and Table 20.
62

industrial centre of Pakistan, is the main source of

attraction for the migrants in the Province of Sind [Afzal,

1974:57-75; Population Census Organization, 1985:Table 27;

1984c:10]. Taking into account the flow of net migrants from

other provinces since the inception of Pakistan, it has been

assumed that the flow of net migration from other Provinces

will continue. Hence it has been assumed that the average

yearly net migration to Sind between February 1976 and

March 1981 will continue at a constant rate throughout the

projection period. The assumed yearly age specific migration

rates per 1000 population by age and sex are presented in

Table 4.3. The 1981 census collected data on population by
duration of continuous residence by sex and age group for

Sind Province. Hence the data pertaining to average yearly

net migration to Sind between February 1976 and March 1981

have been taken from the 1981 census report of Sind Province
[see source Table 4.3].

4.2.4 International Migration Assumptions

In the Middle East the oil price increased in 1973,

resulting in an economic boom. Hence the extensive outflow

of Pakistani workers to oil-rich Arab countries in the

Middle East has taken place since 1973. Now, the job market

in the Middle East is diminishing because the oil boom is

over. Most of the development work has eventually slowed

down. The main reason is the war between Iraq and Iran along

with the declining income from oil. Moreover, the relatively

cheap labour from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Burma and other Far

Eastern countries are ready to work in the Middle East. Due

to all these factors the Pakistani workers in the Middle

East are returning to Pakistan [Finance Division, 1983:176;

1985:172-173; Shaikh, 1987:85-86]. Since 1978, 2.85 million

refugees have arrived in Pakistan from Afghanistan but their

stay in Pakistan is temporary [Refugees, 1987:19-30].

Keeping in view the circumstances for Pakistani manpower in

the Middle East and the temporary stay of Afghan refugees in

Pakistan, it is very hard to determine the net international

migration in future. Hence the net international migration

has been assumed to be nil for the projections.

4.3 Results of Population Projections

4.3.1 Population of Sind, 1981-2016

The projected population of Sind for the next thirty

five years (1981-2016) under the three assumptions is shown
in Table 4.4. The projected population of Sind for every

five years by five year age groups separately for males and

females under high, medium and low variants is reported in

Appendix A, B and C respectively. Table 4.4 shows that,

with no change in fertility, the population of Sind would

increase from 19.0 million in 1981 to 51 million in 2016

(high variant). A moderately successful Population Welfare

Programme (medium variant) would produce a population in

2016, 5.1 million lower than the high variant projection. A

more successful programme would produce a population in

2016, 10 million lower than the high variant projection. In

summary, the total population of Sind by the year 2016

Table 4.4

Projected Population by Sex, Sind:1981-2016

(Population in Millions)

Year | High Variant I Medium Variant | Low Variant

[Male IFemale 1Total IMale|Female ITotal IM a l e !Female 1Total

1981 110.01 9.0 | 19.0110.01 9.0 | 19.0110.01 9.0 | 19.0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1986 111.21 10.1 1 21.3111.21 10.1 I 21.3111.21 10.1 1 21.3
1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1
1991 112.71 11.5 I 24.2112.61 11.4 I 24.0112.51 11.4 1 23.9
1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1
1996 114.61 13.2 1 27.8114.31 13.0 I 27.3114.11 12.8 I 26.9
1 1 1 1 I ! 1 1
2001 116.91 15.4 I 32.3116.41 14.9 I 31.3115.81 14.4 I 30.2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2006 119.71 18.0 I 37.7118.71 17.0 1 35.7117.61 16.1 I 33.7
1 1 1 1 1 1
2011 122.81 20.9 1 43.7121.11 19.4 I 40.5119.41 17.8 I 37.2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2016 126.41 24.3 I 50.7123.81 21.8 I 45.6121.21 19.5 I 40.7

Note: As shown in Table 4.1, the high variant assumes

constant fertility, the medium variant a moderate
decline and the low variant a fast decline.
Mortality is assumed to decline (Table 4.2), while
internal migration is held constant (Table 4.3).

Sources: (1) Computed using FIV FIV/SIN SIN computer package

[Shorter and Pasta, 1974] .

(2) Base population is from 1981 Census Report of Sind

Province [Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table 4].
65

becomes 2.7, 2.4 and 2.1 times the 1981 population under the

high, medium and low variants respectively. During the

period 1981-2016, the population of Sind will increase at an

average annual growth rate of 2.8, 2.5 and 2.2 per cent
respectively under high, medium and low variants.

Table 4.2 shows that, internal migration 'is assumed to

remain constant throughout the projection period under each

variant. An extreme position is that no inter-provincial

migration will take place, in which case the population of

Sind by 2016, will be lower, that is, 47.2, 42.4 and 37.8

million respectively under the high, medium and low

variants. If for example the Government were to discourage

migration to Karachi from other provinces keeping in view

the overcrowdeness of population (1,542 persons per square

kilometre according to the 1981 census) , then migration
rates would fall, and the population of Sind would lie
between these estimates and those shown in Table 4.4.

4.3.2 Age Composition and Dependency

Analysis of different age categories is important as

they have social and economic implications. The proportion

of children at age group 0-14 reveals whether the population

is becoming older or younger. The knowledge of the numbers

of children under 15 also enables the respective Governments

to cope with the demand for services such as education and

health for this segment of population. The proportion of

population in age group 15-64 shows the size of the

population available for work. This data is essential for

the respective Governments to make policies regarding

Table 4.5

Percentage Distribution of Projected Population by Selected Age Groups

and Dependency Ratio, Sind:1981-2016

Year | High Variant | Medium Variant | Low Variant

10-14 115-64 165+ID.R 10-14 115-64 165+ID.R 10-14 115-64 165+ID.R |

1-- 1---- 1 1-- 1 1----- 1---- 1*—— |——-1
1981 144.9 152.1 13.0|91.9144.9 152.1 I3.0|91.9|44.9 152.1 13.0191.91
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1986 142.2 154.9 12.9182.1142.2 154.9 12.9182.1142.2 154.9 12.9182.11
1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1991 138.3 158.7 13.0|70.4137.9 159.1 13.0169.2137.5 159.5 13.0168.11
1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 • 1
1996 137.7 159.2 13.1168.9136.6 160.2 13.2166.1|35.4 I61.3 13.3163.11
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2001 139.4 157.3 13.3|74.5137.4 159.2 |3.4168.9135.1 161.4 |3.5|62.9|
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2006 140.6 155.9 13.5178.9|37.7 158.6 |3.7|70.6134.4 161.6 |4.0|62.3|
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2011 140.8 155.5 13.7|80.1137.1 158.9 |4.0169.8133.1 162.6 |4.3|59.7|
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2016 140.3 155.9 13.8 178.9135.9 159.9 14.2166.9131.1 164.2 |4.7|55.8|

Note: (1) D.R stands for dependency ratio.

(2) As shown in Table 4.1, the high variant assumes

constant fertility, the medium variant a moderate
decline and the low variant a fast decline.
Mortality is assumed to decline (Table 4.2), while
internal migration is held constant (Table 4.3).

Sources: (1) Computed using FIV FIV/SIN SIN computer package

[Shorter and Pasta, 1974].

(2) Base population is from 1981 Census Report of Sind

Province [Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table
67

Optimum utilization of human resources. The proportion of

the population aged 65 years and above shows how fast or

slow the population of Sind is aging. These data help the

Government to meet the demand for services for the old

people [Adam, 1981:54-63].

The percentage distribution of the projected population

by three age categories is given in Table 4.5. Thirty Five

years from 1981, Sind will still have a young population

even under the low variant . With 31 per cent of the total
population in age group 0-14 at the end of projection

period, the high growth potential will be sustained. The

projected figures show a steady rise in the central age

population (15-64 years). By 2016, the central age

population (15-64 years) will increase by 7.3, 15.0 and 23.2
per cent under the high, medium and low variants

respectively. The percentage of old population (65 years and

above), shows an increasing pattern throughout the

projection period. The dependency ratio will drop in future

as a result of changing age structure by a different

magnitude under each assumption. The dependency ratio under

the high, medium and low variants will decrease by 14.1,

27.2 and 39.3 per cent respectively. In spite of this

decline, the dependency ratio will still not be low even

under the low variant. The above analysis suggests that the

greater decline in fertility results in a lower proportion

of children under 15 years and a greater decline in

dependency ratio. Hence the fertility control through the

Population Welfare Programme will lessen the economic burden

on the working age population. Consequently socio-economic

development will take place in the province which has been

nullified by the population explosion.

4.3.3 School Age Population

The projected school age population (0-14), divided

into the following three groups is presented in Table 4.6

[a] Pre-School age population (0-4)

[b] Primary school age population (5-9)

[c] Secondary school age population (10-14)

In 1981, among the total school age population, the

pre-school age population and primary school age population

each number 3.1 million, followed by the secondary school

age population of 2.4 million.

[a] Pre-School Age Population

In Pakistan the children belonging to age group o-4 are

considered the pre-school age population [Afzal, 1974:39].
The percentage increase in the pre-school age population
during 1981-2016 will be 152, 92 and 40 under the high,

medium and low variants respectively. The pre-school age

population increase (1981-2016) in absolute terms will be

1.2 million under the low variant compared with 4.7 million

under the high variant [Table 4.6]. The Increase in

population with a fast decline in fertility (low variant)

will lessen the burden on the Government in terms of

expenditure on providing better child health services and

educational facilities for pre-school children.

[b] Primary School Age Population

In Pakistan a child becomes eligible to enter a

primary school at five years of age. Children belonging to

ages 5-9 are officially specified as the primary school age

population [Finance Division, 1980:95; Irfan, 1986:xii].
The quality of the products of primary educational

institutions in Pakistan is not satisfactory. About 60 per

cent of all primary schools in the country have insufficient

accommodation for their students. Due to non-availability of

accommodation many schools are functioning in the open air.

Primary schools generally lack female teachers in rural
areas [Planning Commission, 1978:299]. The main cause of
failure to maintain the good quality of primary education

may be attributed to the high growth of population. However,

The Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) , aims at improving the
quality of primary education; hence among other steps the
Government has decided to make serious efforts to get all

the boys and girls of the relevant age groups enrolled in

class I by 1988. The mosques will be utilized to accommodate
classes I to III of new schools and over-crowded existing
schools. [Planning Commission, 1983:337-341].

Table 4.6 shows that the percentage increase in the

primary school age population during 1981-2016 will be 115,

74 and 35 under high, medium and low variants respectively.

The primary school age population increase (1981-2016) in

absolute terms will be 1.1 million under the low variant

compared to 3.6 million under the high variant.

In Sind, the students enrolled in primary schools

during 1980-81 were 1,378,882 [Bureau of Statistics,

Table 4.6

Projected School Age Population In Respect of Sind

1981 and 2016

iPre-school Age IPrimary School 1Secondary school

1Population IAge Population IAge Population
Series of Projections 1 (0-4) 1 (5-9) I (10-14)

I 1981 | 2016 I 1981 | 2016 I 1981 | 2016

1 — - |-
High Variant i i i i 1 1
1 I 1 1

Population (in thousands) I 3055 | 7708 I 3141 | 6761 I 2354 | 5957

1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
Percentage increase I 152.3 | 115.2 1 153.1
in population (1981-2016) 1 1 1 1 1 1
I I

Medium Variant 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
Population (in thousands) | 3055 | 5865 I 3141 | 5458 t 2354 | 5055
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
Percentage increase I 92.0 | 73.8 I 114.7
in population (1981-2016) 1 1 1 1 1 1
I I I |
Low Variant 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
Population (in thousands) I 3055 | 4262 I 3141 | 4240 | 2354 | 4155
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
Percentage increase I 39.5 | 35.0 I 76.6
in population (1981-2016) 1 1 1 1 1 1

Source: Appendices: A, B and C

1983:218-219]. Hence the proportion of students enrolled in

the primary schools related to a relevant school age
population (5-9) stood at 43.9 (per cent). In the light of

the Sixth Five Year Plan's approach towards primary

education, it has been assumed that the enrolment ratio

(43.9) will increase by 18 per cent during every five-year

period. Consequently, the expected number of students by

2016 would be 6,708,000; 5,415,000 and 4,207,000 under high,

medium and low variants respectively.

In Sind, the number of teaching staff in primary

schools in 1980-81 was 41,371. The pupil-teacher ratio in

primary schools has increased from 27.49 (absolute number)

in 1976-77 to 33.33 (absolute number) in 1980-81 [Bureau of

Statistics, 1983:218-221]. The increase in the pupil-teacher

ratio may be attributed to the shortage of trained primary

school teachers. Hence untrained matriculates are recruited
as teachers to overcome the shortage of primary school
teachers. The Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) proposes that
teachers may get 10 months training after they are

recruited. The training may be completed in 3 instalments of

5,3 and 2 months duration. After the completion of the first

training unit of 5 months, the teachers should be placed in

teaching jobs and should be allowed to complete the other

two units within three years of the first appointment

[Planning Commission, 1983:345-346], Taking into account the

proposal of the Sixth Five Year Plan (198.3-88) , it can be

assumed that the shortage of trained primary school teachers

will be overcome. Consequently, the pupil-teacher ratio will

not increase in future, but will remain constant at the

1980-81 level throughout the period covered by the

projection. Hence under this assumption, the number of
primary school teachers will be 201,000; 162,000 and

126,000 by 2016 under the high, medium and low variants

respectively.

[c] Secondary School Age Population

In Pakistan, the children belonging to ages 10-14 are

considered the secondary school age population. Secondary

school education includes middle and high school levels

[Irfan, 1986:xii]. Secondary education is of utmost

importance because on its completion the students have more

options when choosing a field of study for their further
education. Hence secondary education has to be broad based,

flexible and of high quality. Considering secondary

education as a factor of prime importance, the Sixth Five
Year Plan (1983-88) aims at improving its quality. The Sixth
Five Year Plan (1983-88) also aims at paying special
attention to the provision of laboratories, science

apparatus, library books and qualified s'taff. To provide for

additional enrolment of about one million children in

secondary schools by 1988 is also one of the objectives of

the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) [Planning Commission,

1983:337-345] .

The projected figures in Table 4.6 indicate that by

2016, the increase in the size of the secondary school

population would be 153 per cent under the high variant,

while under the medium and low variants the increase would

be 115 and 77 per cent respectively.

During 1980-81, the number of students enrolled in the

secondary schools of Sind was 508,949 [Bureau of Statistics,
1983:218-219]. Hence the enrolment ratio was 21.6 per cent.

Keeping in view the Sixth Five Year Plan's approach towards

secondary education, it has been assumed that the secondary

enrolment ratio (21.6) will increase by 15 per cent after

every five years. Consequently, the expected number of

students by 2016 will be 2,638,000, 2,238,000 and 1,840,000

under the high, medium and low variants respectively.

The number of teaching staff in secondary schools was

22,240 in 1980-81. The pupil-teacher ratio in the secondary

schools of Sind has increased from 18.9 (absolute number) in

1976-77 to 22.9 (absolute number) in 1980-81 [Bureau of
Statistics, 1983:218-221]. The increase in the pupil-teacher

ratio may be due to the shortage of trained secondary school

teachers. The Sixth Plan recognizes that the availability of
trained secondary school teachers is a problem, hence
proposing that teachers should first be recruited, and then
should get training in phases. After undertaking the first

phase of training, they should be placed in teaching jobs.

They should complete the rest of the training while they are
on the job [Planning Commission, 1983:345-346]. In the light

of the incentives proposed by the Sixth Five Year Plan

(1983-88) to overcome the shortage of trained secondary

school teachers it can be assumed that the shortage of

trained secondary school teachers will be overcome.

Consequently, the pupil-teacher ratio will not increase in

future, but will remain constant at the 1980-81 level

throughout the projection period. Hence under this

assumption, the number of secondary school teachers, by

2016, will be 115, 000; 98,000 and 80, 000 under the high,

medium and low variants respectively.

The Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-88) aims to take a

number of measures to make primary and secondary school

education accessible to the maximum number of children.

Serious efforts have been made to improve the quality in

primary and secondary education. The increase in the number

of children under the conditions of largely uncontrolled

fertility (high variant) would hamper the Government's

efforts to achieve these objectives.

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

This study attempts to highlight the demographic

situation of Sind and help planners to formulate the future

policy. An attempt has been made in Chapter Two to analyse

and describe the various aspects of population growth,

composition and distribution in respect of Sind. Chapter

Three analyses and describes the components of population

growth in respect of Sind. In many cases the demographic

situation in Sind has been compared with other provinces. In

Chapter Four population projections are prepared for Sind

for 35 years from 1981. These projections would help the
planners to plan for the consequences of future population
trends.
From the census data it is revealed that in 1901, the
population of Sind was 3.4 million, which increased to 19.0
million in 1981. In a period of 80 years there was an
approximately six-fold increase in the population of Sind.

The trends of population growth observed for the period

1901-1951 indicate that the growth rate in Sind fluctuated

between 0.9 to 2.2 per cent per annum. The acceleration in

the growth of population started after the partition. During

1951-61, 1961-72 and 1972-81, the population of Sind has

increased at an annual growth rate of 3.3, 4.6 and 3.6 per

cent respectively. Owing to a persistently high level of

fertility accompanied by relatively low levels of mortality,

Sind's population has registered high growth since

partition [see Chapter Two].

The Population of Pakistan is unevenly distributed

among the provinces. Sind is ranked third among the
provinces in respect of its share in the total land area.

Sind had the secon'd largest population size amongst the

Provinces in the censuses of 1961, 1972 and 1981. The

population density of Sind in 1961 was 59 persons per square

kilometre and in 1981, it increased to 135 persons per

square kilometre. All three censuses from 1961 to 1981

revealed that Sind is the most urbanized province of
Pakistan [see Chapter Two].

The sex composition of the population of Sind

indicates more males than females. The sex ratio in Sind,

being 124 and 123 in the censuses of 1951 and 1961 is higher

than the other provinces. However a steady decline in the

overall sex ratio since 1951 has been observed [see Chapter
Two] .
Sind has a smaller Muslim population than other
provinces. Among the minorities in Sind, the Hindus are 6.4
per cent of the total population, whereas the proportion of

Hindus in other Provinces is insignificant. The Hindu

population in Sind was 25.3 per cent of the total population

in 1941. Even after partition, Sind has significant numbers

of Hindus. The majority of Hindus live in the Tharparkar

district of Sind [see Chapter Two].

The literacy ratios of Sind, being 30.2 and 31.4 in the

censuses of 1972 and 1981 respectively, are the highest

among the Provinces. Literacy among the female population of

Sind is much lower compared to the male population. This

difference becomes widest in respect of rural urban areas

[see Chapter Two].

The 1981 census revealed that the labour force
participation rate in Sind (27.7) is nearly equal to 27.6

for the whole of Pakistan. The labour force participation

rate in Sind swings from 51 for males to a distressingly low

2 for females. Similar significant variation exists at the

national level. The labour force is primarily engaged in

agriculture [see Chapter Two].

Among the provinces, Sind which is the most urbanized

has the lowest Total Fertility Rate as suggested by the 1976

Population Growth Survey and the 1984-85 Pakistan

Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. All provinces have

experienced a decline in Total Fertility Rate between 1976
and 1984-85, but the decline has been more pronounced in
Sind (21 per cent). The other three provinces, namely NWFP,
Punjab and Baluchistan, show declines of 17, 14 and 4 per
cent respectively [see Chapter Three].
The Crude Death Rates in four Provinces were adjusted
after estimating the completeness of death enumeration for
each of the provinces. From the adjusted Crude Death Rates

it is apparent that Sind has the lowest Crude Death Rate

amongst the Provinces. The Infant Mortality Rate of Sind as

suggested by the 1976-1979 Population Growth Survey being 77

is lower than the national level and also lower than Punjab

and NWFP. The life expectancy at birth for males was 56.0

and for females 57.3 . The life expectancy at birth in

respect of Sind and Pakistan is nearly the same as suggested

by the 1976-1979 Population Growth Survey [see Chapter

Three].
As far as inter-provincial migration in Pakistan since

its inception is concerned, the censuses of 1951 and 1961

revealed that migration to Sind has been much greater than

to any other province.' However, this trend continued as

revealed by the 1973 Housing, Economic and Demographic (HED)

Survey and the 1981 census. Sind received the major

proportion of the migrants from Punjab according to the 1973

HED Survey and 1981 census. Karachi the biggest centre of

trade and industry in Pakistan is a major attraction to the

people of other provinces [see Chapter Three].

The projections of Sind's population indicate that, in

2016, the population of Sind would be 51 million under the
high series of projections. The medium and low series would

produce 46 and 41 million respectively. The results of the

projections indicate that by 2016, Sind will have still a
young population even under the assumptions of the low
series. The working age population (15-64) will increase

under each set of assumptions but the increase is more

pronounced under the low series of projections. The

percentage of old population (65 years and over) will

increase under each set of assumptions, but the increase is

larger under the low variant. The dependency ratio under

the high, medium and low series will be 7 9, 67 and 56

respectively. The school age population bifurcated into pre

school, primary school and secondary school would increase

more slowly under the state of fast declining fertility

levels expected to be produced by the overwhelming success

of the Population Welfare Programme. The projections of

school age population in Sind indicate that by 2016, the
pre-school age population would be 7.7, 5.9 and 4.3 million

under the high, medium and low variants respectively. The

primary school age population would be 6.8, 5.5 and 4.2

million respectively under the high, medium and low

variants. The secondary school age population would be 6.0,

5.1 and 4.2 million under high, medium and low variants

respectively. The projections of students and teachers in

primary and secondary schools of Sind indicate that by 2016,

the expected number of students in primary schools would be

6.7, 5.4 and 4.2 million under high, medium and low variants

respectively, whereas, the expected number of students in

secondary schools would be 2.6, 2.2 and 1.8 million under
high, medium and low variants respectively. The expected
number of primary school teachers would be 201,000; 162,000
and 126,000 under the high, medium and low variants

respectively, whereas, the expected number of secondary

school teachers would be 115,000; 98,000 and 80,000 under
the high medium and low variants respectively. The results

of the population projections are subject to the underlying

assumptions pertaining to fertility, mortality and internal

migration [see Chapter Four].

Though there has been a noteworthy decline in

mortality rates, the infant mortality rate is still high.

Hence the Government of Sind should urgently design the

health programmes in such a way that the infant mortality

rate is reduced substantially and the life expectancy at

birth is improved. The reduction in mortality, especially

infant mortality can indirectly reduce fertility rates.
Children below age 15 form the high proportion of the

total population. This calls for a solid Government policy

aiming at expanding the educational facilities to

accommodate all existing students in primary and secondary

schools. The projected primary and secondary enrolment will

enable the planning authorities in the education department

of Sind Government to meet the future demand for educational

facilities in the province.

The growing pressure on the land of Sind in terms of

increasing population density per square kilometre and the
rise in both the labour force and dependency ratio is the

result of rapid population growth. In view of these

consequences of rapid population growth and the results of
the population projections of Sind under each variant, it is
evident that the growth of population with largely
uncontrolled fertility would nullify the socio-economic
development of Sind. In order to achieve a high level of
socio-economic development in Sind, the fertility should be
reduced substantially as soon as possible. The population
growth in Sind will be influenced by decline in fertility
which is essential in view of limited provincial resources.

Since population growth and socio-economic development are

highly interrelated, it is suggested that the Government of

Sind should change the attitudes of the individual and

community towards adopting family planning by formulating

firm policies to promote health status, educational level

and employment expansion in respect of males and females in

urban as well as rural areas of Sind.

It may be concluded that the aim of this study was to

present demographic situation of Sind. It was an attempt to

analyse the various aspects of the population

characteristics of Sind in depth. However, due to limited

availability of data, many aspects of the demography of Sind

remain still unexplored. This calls for more intensive

research. It is, however, recommended that the Government of

Sind should start conducting regular Demographic Surveys of

Sind at a district level by urban and rural areas. These

surveys would form the data base for formulating population

policies in the framework of an overall development strategy

of Sind.
82

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90

APPENDIX A
TABLE 1; Projected Population (in thousands) in Sind
by Five-Year Age Groups: High Series

MALES ■

IAge Group 1 19811 19861 1991 | 19961 2001 | 20061 2011 | 2016!
i
1 _I1 1 1 _ | _ I 1 1
0-4 | 14411 1495 | 17861 2195 | 2648 | 3068 | 3483 I 3953 |
5-9 1 16051 1404 | 1465 | 17591 2172 | 2631 | 3058 | 3478 |
10-14 | 1277| 1600 | 1404 | 1466 | 1762 | 2178 | 2640 | 3071 |
15-19 I 10101 1277 | 1601 | 1408 | 1472 | 1771 | 2191 | 2658 |
20-24 | 878 | 1011 | 1280 | 16061 14191 1485 | 1789! 2215 |
25-29 1 757 | 877 | 1013 | 12861 1614 | 1433 | 1503 | 1811 |
30-34 I 622 | 753 | 875 | 1015 | 1291 | 1621 | 1446 1 1518 |
35-39 I 526| 615 | 748 | 872 | 10151 1294 | 1626! 1455 |
40-44 1 451 | 5161 6061 7391 865 | 1010 | 1291 | 1623 |
45-49 1 381 | 4361 501 | 591 | 723 | 850 | 9961 12761
50-54 1 305 | 361 | 415 | 4791 569! 699! 824 | 9691
55-59 1 241 | 280 | 334 | 387 | 4491 5361 661 | 783 |
60-64 1 193 | 213 | 249| 2991 349| 408 | 489| 606!
65-69 1 130 | 160 | 178 | 211 | 255 | 2991 352 | 424 |
70-74 1 69| 98 | 122 | 137 | 164 | 200 | 237 | 281 |
75 + 1 1131 92 | 103 | 1261 148 | 178 | 2191 265 |
TOTAL I 99991 11188 |12680|145761 16915|19661|22805 I263861
FEMALES
0-4 1 1614| 1407 | 1683 | 2070 | 2500 | 2900 | 32961 3755 |
5-9 1 15361 1554 | 1367 | 1645 | 2034 | 2469 | 2877 | 3283 1
10-14 I 1077| 1525 | 1547 | 1364 | 1643 | 20361 2474 | 28861
15-19 1 834 | 1070 | 1517 | 15431 1364 | 1645 | 2041 | 2483 |
20-24 I 738 | 8261 1063 | 1508 | 15391 1365 1 1648 | 2048 |
25-29 1 640 | 727 | 817 | 1055 | 1500 | 1535 | 1367 | 1653 |
30-34 1 5391 628 | 7161 808 | 1047 | 1490 | 15291 1367 |
35-39 I 482 | 5261 615 | 704 | 798 | 1037 | 14791 1522 |
40-44 1 421 | 468 | 513 | 602 | 692 | 787 | 1025 | 1465 |
45-49 1 332 | 406 1 453 | 498 | 587 | 677 | 773 | 10091
50-54 1 243 | 3161 388 | 435 | 480 | 568 | 657 | 753 |
55-59 1 181 | 227 | 2961 3661 412 | 457 | 542 | 631 |
60-64 1 141 | 163 | 205 | 271 | 3361 381 | 425 | 507 |
65-69 1 98 | 120 | 140 | 178 | 237 | 296| 338 | 380 |
70-74 1 55 | 77 | 95 | 112 | 144 | 1931 244 | 281 |
75 + 1 98 | 80 1 88 | 106| 127 | 162 | 217 | 283 i
TOTAL 1 90291 10120|11503|13265|15440|17998|20932|243061

GRAND TOT|19028121308|24183|27841|32355|37659|43737|50692|

Note: The results of the projections are subject to

fertility, mortality and internal migration
assumptions [see Tables 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3].
Sources: (1) Computed using FIV FIV/SIN SIN computer package
[Shorter and Pasta, 1974].
(2) Base population is from 1981 Census Report
of Sind Province
[Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table 4].
91

APPENDIX B

TABLE 2: Projected Population (in thousands) in the Sind

by Five-Year Age Groups: Medium Series

MALES

|Age Group | 19811 1986 1 1991 | 19961 2001 | 20061 2011 | 20161
i
1 I
1 i _
1 | 1_ | 1_ I
1
0-4 I 1441| 1495 | 1714 | 2022 | 2343 i 2604 | 2812 | 3008 |
5-9 I 16051 1404 | 1465 | 1688 | 2001 | 2328 | 2595 | 2808 |
10-14 | 12771 1600 ! 1403 | 14661 1691 | 2007 | 23361 26061
15-19 I 10101 1277 | 1601 | 1408 | 1472 | 1700 | 20191 2352 |
20-24 I 878 | 1011 | 1281 | 16061 1419 1 1485 | 1717 | 2041 |
25-29 1 757 | 877 | 1013 1 12861 1614 | 1433 | 1502 | 1738 |
30-34 I 622 | 752 | 875 | 1015 | 1291 | 1621 | 14461 15161
35-39 I 5261 6161 748 | 872 | 1015 | 1294 | 16261 1455 |
40-44 1 451 | 516 1 6061 7391 865 | 1010 | 1291 | 1623 |
45-49 1 381 | 4361 501 | 591 | 723 ! 850 | 9961 12761
50-54 I 305 | 361 | 415 | 4791 5691 699| 824 | 9691
55-60 1 241 | 280 | 334 | 387 | 4491 536| 661 | 783 |
60-64 1 1931 213 | 2491 2991 3491 407 | 489| 6061
65-69 1 130 | 160 | 178 | 211 | 255 | 2991 352 | 424 |
70-74 1 691 98 | 122 | 137 | 164 | 200 | 237 | 2811
75 + 1 113 i 92 | 103 | 1261 148 | 178 | 2191 265 |
TOTAL I 99991 11188|12608|14332|16368|18651|21122|23751|

FEMALES
0-4 1 16141 1407 | 1615 | 1907 | 2212 | 2461 | 2661 | 2857 |
5-9 1 1536! 1554 | 1367 | 1579 1 1875 1 2185 | 2441 | 2650 |
10-14 ! 1077| 1525 | 1547 | 1364 | 1577 | 1875 | 21891 2449 1
15-19 1 834 | 1070 | 1517 | 1543 | 1363 | 15791 1880 | 2197 |
20-24 1 738 | 8261 1062 | 1508 | 15391 1365 | 1582 | 1887 |
25-29 I 640 | 727 | 818 | 1055 | 1500 | 1535 | 13661 15861
30-34 1 5391 628 | 7161 808 | 1047 | 1490 | 15291 13661
35-39 1 483 | 526| 615 | 704 | 798 | 1037 | 14791 1522 |
40-44 | 422 | 468 | 513 | 602 | 692 | 786| 10251 1465 |
45-49 I 332 | 4061 453 | 498 | 587 ! 677 | 772 | 1009!
50-54 1 243 | 316| 388 | 435 | 480 | 568 | 657 | 753 |
55-59 1 181 | 227 | 2961 3661 412 | 457 | 542 | 631 |
60-64 1 141 | 1631 205 | 2711 336| 381 | 425 | 507 |
65-70 1 98 | 120 | 140 | 178 | 237 | 2961 339| 380 |
70-74 1 55 | 77 | 95 | 112 | 144 | 193 | 244 | 281 |
75 + 1 98 | 80 | 88 | 1061 127 | 162 | 217 | 283 |
TOTAL 1 90291 10120|11435|130361 149261 17047|19348|218231

GRAND TOT|19028|21308|24043|27368|31294|35698|40470|45574|

Note: The results of projections are subject to

fertility, mortality and internal migration
assumptions [see Tables 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3].
Sources: (1) Computed using FIV FIV/SIN SIN computer package
[Shorter and Pasta, 1974].
(2 ) Base population is from 1981 Census Report
of Sind Province
[Population Census Organization, 1984b:Table 4].
92

APPENDIX C

TABLE 2: Projected Population (in thousands) in the Sind

by Five-Year Age Groups: Low Series

MALES

|Age Group 1 19811 1986 1 1991 | 19961 2001 | 20061 2011 | 20161
1
1 1_
i I- — — 1___ 1 _ I_ I_ I i
0-4 I 14411 1495 | 1635 | 1837 | 2028 1 2141 | 2184 | 21861
5-9 I 16051 1404 | 1465 | 1611 | 1818 | 2015 | 2133 | 2181 |
10-14 | 12771 1600 | 1403 | 1465 | 1613 | 1823 | 2022 | 2142 !
15-19 I 10101 1277 | 1601 | 1408 | 1471 | 1622 | 1835 | 20361
20-24 I 878 | 1011 | 1281 | 16061 1419 1 1484 | 1638 | 1854 |
25-29 1 757 | 8761 1013 | 12861 1614 | 1433 | 1500 | 1658 1
30-34 | 622 | 753 | 875 | 10151 1292 | 1621 | 1446 1 1515 |
35-39 1 5261 6161 748 | 872 | 1015 | 1294 | 16261 1455 |
40-44 1 451 | 5161 6061 7391 865 | 1010 | 1291 | 1623 |
45-49 1 381 | 4361 501 | 591 | 723 | 850 | 996| 1276 1
50-54 I 3051 361 | 415 | 4791 5691 698 | 824 | 969!
55-60 1 241 | 280 | 334 | 387 | 4491 536! 661 1 783 |
60-64 1 1931 213 | 249 1 2991 3491 408 | 490 | 6061
65-69 1 130 | 160 | 178 | 211 | 255 | 2991 352 | 424 |
70-74 1 69| 98 | 122 | 137 | 164 | 200 | 237 | 281 |
75 + 1 1131 92 | 103| 126| 148 | 178 | 2191 265 |
TOTAL 1 99991 11188|125291 14069|15792|17612|19454|21254|
FEMALES
0-4 I 16141 1407 | 1541 | 1733 | 1915 | 2023 | 2067 | 20761
5-9 1 15361 1554 | 1367 | 1506 1 1703 | 1891 | 2007 1 20591
10-14 I 10771 1525 | 1547 | 1364 | 1504 | 1704 | 1895 | 2013 |
15-19 1 834 | 1070 | 1517 | 1543 | 1364 | 1506! 17091 1903 |
20-24 1 738 | 8261 1062 | 1508 | 15391 1364 | 15091 1714 |
25-29 1 640 | 727 | 818 | 1054 | 1500 | 1535 | 1365 | 15131
30-34 1 5391 628 | 716 1 808 I 1047 | 1491 | 15291 1365 !
35-39 1 4831 5261 615 | 704 | 798 | 1037 | 14791 1522 |
40-44 | 422 | 468 | 513 | 602 | 691 | 787 ! 1025 i 1465 |
45-49 1 332 | 406 1 453 | 498 | 587 I 677 | 772 | 10091
50-54 1 2431 316| 388 | 435 | 480 | 568 ! 657 | 753 |
55-59 I 181 | 227 | 296| 3661 412 | 457 | 542 | 631 |
60-64 1 141 | 163 | 205 | 271 | 335 | 381 | 425 ! 507 |
65-70 1 98 | 120 ! 140 | 178 | 237 | 296! 338 | 380 |
70-74 1 55 | 77 | 95 | 112 | 144 | 193 | 244 | 281 |
75 + 1 98 | 80 | 88 | 1061 127 | 161 | 217 | 282 !
TOTAL 1 90291 10120|11361|12788|14383|16071|17780|19473|
GRAND TOT|19028|21308|23890126857|30175|33683|37234|40727|

Note: The results of projections are subject to

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