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Over/Under 2.5 System

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Over/Under 2.5 System

What is the system?

As the name suggests, this system is all about goals. More specifically, about using goal
stats to find games that where either an ʻOver 2.5 Goalsʼ or an ʻUnder 2.5 Goalsʼ bet
represents value.

The beauty of this system is that it can be applied to any league, and therefore, the
possibilities are plenty. Due to the time of year, the league that I focussed on was Major
League Soccer. Why did I do this? As mentioned already, I started looking into this
system at a time where all of Europeʼs major leagues were sleeping during the o -
season, so I needed a campaign that was fully in the swing of things. Secondly, though
looked down upon by many pundits and pans, the MLS was perfect for this system due
to it being a relatively high-scoring league. This means two things. One, thereʼs plenty
of goals, and plenty of goals means lots of successful ʻOver 2.5 Betsʼ. Two, because itʼs a
relatively high- scoring league, ʻUnder 2.5 Goalsʼ can o en be bet on at generous odds.

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The Formula

By using the below formula, we will be able to identify value Over/Under 2.5 Goals bets.

Letʼs take the percentage of the home teamʼs home games that have contained three or
more goals and combine it with the percentage of the away teamʼs away games that
have contained at least at least three goals. By doing this, weʼll arrive at the combined
percentage.

A bet qualifies if this combined percentage is greater than the implied probability of the
available odds.

For example: Home Team +2.5 % (at home) = 62% Away Team +2.5 % (away) = 73%
Combined +2.5 % = 67.5% Available odds for Over 2.5 Goals = 1.62 (61.7% implied
probability)

In this example, a bet would be placed, and it would be a bet that represents positive
value. Why? Simply because the available odds suggest that the outcome will occur less
o en than the system believes it will. Basically, according to the system, thereʼs a
greater chance of three or more goals being scored than the available odds would have
us believe.

Hereʼs a non-hypothetical, real life example.

Letʼs take the game between the Colorado Rapids and Los Angeles FC, which took place
back in May of this year. Based on the system criteria, there was a 39.5% chance of three
or more goals being scored. This equates to betting odds of 2.53 (+153). However, the
odds for an ʻOver 2.5 Goalsʼ bet were only 1.70 (-143), meaning that such a bet
represented poor value. By default, the system told us that there was 60.5% chance of
less than three goals being scored, which in decimal odds is 1.65 (-153). Betting on
ʻUnder 2.5 Goalsʼ would therefore represent value at anything above 1.65. The odds
available were a whopping 2.20 (+120). The game finished 2-0, so the system identified
both a winning bet and a bet that represented positive value.

How do we use the formula to find qualifying bets?

So, how we use the simple formula to find qualifying bets? Fortunately, thatʼs a
relatively simply process too. Using the FootyStats website, just search the league
youʼre looking for, which in this example is Major League Soccer.

Find the ʻOver 2.5ʼ and ʻUnder 2.5ʼ stats for each team. You can do this by clicking on
ʻLeagueʼ at the top of the main page. Simply scroll through until you hit Major League
Soccer, and then from the main league page, click ʻDetailed Statsʼ, then ʻOver 0.5 – 5.5
Tablesʼ. Click here and then scroll down until you hit the ʻOver 2.5ʼ stats. In a separate
tab have the ʻUnder 2.5ʼ stats open also, which can be found the same way.

Letʼs look at a recent game between the Portland Timbers and the Seattle Sounders.
Below are their respective ʻUnder 2.5ʼ stats, shown in the ʻUnder 2.5ʼ table for Major
League Soccer.

The above image shows that ahead of their game against the Sounders, the Portland
Timbers had seen less than three goals scored in 54% of their home fixtures.

The above image shows that ahead of their away game at Portland, the Seattle
Sounders had seen less than three goals scored in 62% of their away games. Therefore,
using the formula above, the combined ʻUnder 2.5ʼ percentage for the two teams
involved in this fixture was 58%. 58% translates to 1.72 in decimal odds. As we can see
below, a rather chunky 2.35 was available, which means that the system identified an
ʻUnder 2.5 Goalsʼ bet that represented considerable value for money.

Is the system profitable?

The big question, and the only thing that really matters. Was the system profitable? Yes,
using this system during the current Major League Soccer season yielded a very healthy
profit. The system also held up well to testing during the previous campaign. Below is a
breakdown of the system performance.

Major League Soccer 2021 (Beginning of May onwards):

Bets placed = 221

Bets won = 168

Bets lost = 53

Win rate = 76.01%

Total staked = £22,100

Total returned = £33,268

Profit = £11,168

Return on investment = 50.53%

Major League Soccer 2022 (Beginning of May through until August 22nd):

Bets placed = 193

Bets won = 152

Bets lost = 41

Win rate = 78.75%

Total staked = £19,300

Total returned = £32,163

Profit = £12,863

Return on investment = 66.64%

System results in full since start of 2021 MLS campaign:

Bets placed = 414

Bets won = 320

Bets lost = 94

Win rate = 77.29%

Total staked = £41,400

Total returned = £65,431

Profit = £24,031

Return on investment = 58.04%

System Summary

Overall, this system has performed very well and has proved over time to identify not
only bets that represent value, but a high percentage of winning bets. Sure, the system
ran into bad periods, or matchdays where the losses outweighed the wins, but overall,
in the long run, the wins far outweighed the losses.

This system has a few clear plus points. The first of which is that itʼs highly profitable.
While the returns are not astronomical, they are very healthy. Secondly, the system is
easy to implement. It requires no real football knowledge, just discipline and the ability
to use the formula to identify bets that represent value, which once you get the hang of
it, is relatively easy to do.

Another great thing about this system is itʼs perfect for those bettors who donʼt want to
spend hours trawling through form, figures and what not. Once youʼve got to grips with
the formula and the process of identify bets, if you focus on just one league, then the
work is minimal.

If you are someone whoʼs interested in system betting, then definitely give this one a go.
Itʼs easy to follow, requires little work, while healthy rewards are there to be had for
those who can follow the rules and remain disciplined. Stick with the system in the long
run, and profit should be achieved.

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