Scientific Journal of Informatics

Vol. 11, No. 1, Feb 2024

p-ISSN 2407-7658 http://journal.unnes.ac.id/nju/index.php/sji e-ISSN 2460-0040

Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine on

Mixed Categorical and Continuous Independent Variables for
COVID-19 Patients Data
Husnul Aris Haikal1*, Aji Hamim Wigena2, Kusman Sadik3, Efriwati4
1,2,3
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Indonesia
4
National Research and Innovation Agency, Indonesia

Abstract.
Purpose: Numerous factors can affect the duration of COVID-19 recovery. One method involves utilizing natural
herbal medication. This study seeks to determine the variables influencing the duration of COVID-19 recovery and to
compare discriminant analysis and support vector machine models using COVID-19 patient data from West Sumatra.
Methods: Two data mining methods, Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine with different types of
kernels (linear, polynomial, and radial basis function), were employed to categorize the time of COVID-19 recovery in
this work. The study utilized 428 data points, with 75% allocated for training data and 25% for testing data. The
independent factors were evaluated by determining the selection variables' information value (IV) to gauge their
influence on the dependent variable. Data resampling techniques were employed to tackle the problem of data
imbalance. This study employs data resampling techniques, including undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE. The
balancing accuracy of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine was examined.
Result: The Discriminant Analysis with SMOTE achieved a balanced accuracy of 66.50%, outperforming the linear
kernel Support Vector Machine with SMOTE, which had a balanced accuracy of 63.20% in this dataset.
Novelty: This study assessed the novelty, originality, and value by comparing Discriminant Analysis and SVM
algorithms with categorical and continuous independent variables. This research explores techniques for managing
imbalanced data using undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE, with variable selection based on information value
assessment.

Keywords: Discriminant analysis, Support vector machine, Mixed independent variable, Resampling, COVID-
19
Received November 2023 / Revised February 2024 / Accepted February 2024

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

INTRODUCTION
SARS-CoV-2, also known as COVID-19, can cause a variety of effects ranging from no symptoms to multi-
organ failure and death. [1] During the initial stages of the pandemic in early 2020, approximately 80% of
people who contracted SARS-CoV-2 showed no symptoms, while around 13% experienced severe illness
necessitating respiratory assistance, and about 7% needed intensive care due to clinical manifestations such
as acute respiratory infection (ARI), sepsis, and multi-organ failure [2].

Natural herbal treatments have been used globally for treating COVID-19. [3] Several COVID-19
individuals in different countries, such as China, have been treated using traditional herbal medicine
prescriptions. [4] As a tropical country, Indonesia has abundant medicinal plants, with the West Sumatra
region particularly abundant in natural medicinal flora. The inhabitants of West Sumatra have traditionally
used indigenous botanicals to treat various illnesses, including COVID-19. The leaves of the sungkai tree
(Peronema canescens) in West Sumatra are thought to provide medicinal potential for treating COVID-19.
[5] The leaves of the sungkai tree are traditionally used to cure fever, colds, diarrhoea, hypertension, and
malaria. They are also being explored as an alternative therapy for COVID-19. Yani [6] conducted research
indicating that extracts from young sungkai leaves can enhance immunity by raising the white blood cell
count in the blood, therefore strengthening the immune system against many infectious diseases.
COVID-19 has an incubation period, which is the duration between viral infection and the appearance of
illness symptoms [7]. COVID-19's incubation time is reportedly 14 days [8], [9]. This study will focus on

*
Corresponding author.
Email addresses: [email protected] (Haikal)
DOI: 10.15294/sji.v11i1.48565

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analysing the recovery time from COVID-19 as the response variable. Recovery time from COVID-19 is
categorised into two groups: patients who recovered during the incubation period (≤ 14 days) and patients
who recovered after the incubation period (> 14 days). This study utilises mixed independent variables,
encompassing both categorical and continuous variables. The information value was computed for each
independent variable, a technique for variable selection that is especially beneficial when the answer
variable is binary [10].

The categorisation approach was selected to categorise the COVID-19 recovery time. Classification
algorithms predict data groups based on existing class categories utilising independent factors. [11]
Imbalanced class data can create classification issues, resulting in misclassification. [12] Imbalanced class
data, with unequal distribution of data points among distinct classes, can impact the model's performance
[13]. The study's response variable, the duration of COVID-19 recovery, exhibits uneven class
characteristics and needs to be addressed. Resampling techniques can assist in addressing imbalanced data
[14]. This study employed undersampling, oversampling, and the Synthetic Minority Oversampling
Technique (SMOTE).

Undersampling is a resampling technique that randomly decreases the data in the majority class to match
or come close to the number in the minority class [15]. Qian [16] discovered that undersampling enhanced
classification accuracy in Support Vector Machine (SVM) and discriminant Analysis. Oversampling
involves randomly adding data to the minority class to balance or approximate its number with the dominant
class, addressing the issue of class imbalance. [17], [18], [19] SMOTE is a skilful resampling technique
that has emerged as a suitable alternative for addressing issues associated with imbalanced data. [20] It is
an oversampling technique that equalises the class distribution of a dataset by introducing artificial samples
to the minority class. [21] Wang [22] observed that SMOTE is an excellent technique for addressing
unbalanced data and enhancing accuracy metrics.

Discriminant Analysis is a statistical technique for categorising and assigning new objects to predetermined
groups. [23] Ronald A. Fisher established it in 1936, and it is regarded as a classic data mining method.
Discriminant Analysis initially had limitations as it exclusively operated with continuous independent
variables. [24] Mbina [25] expanded Discriminant Analysis to accommodate mixed categorical-continuous
independent variables, providing an alternative for discriminant models with categorical variables.
Categorical independent variables are managed by constructing cells from a multinomial table of
categorical values in each group rather than converting them into dummy variables [26]. This research
employs the Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach alongside Discriminant Analysis.

In his study, Guhathakurata [27] evaluated the performance of a Support Vector Machine (SVM) against
various classification algorithms like K-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Classification Tree (CART), Random
Forest, Naïve Bayes, and AdaBoost in categorising COVID-19 patient symptoms. The findings indicated
that SVM outperformed the other methods regarding predictive accuracy—James [28], emphasised SVM's
excellent performance in object classification. The SVM approach aims to identify the best hyperplane that
maximally separates the classes. A hyperplane is a mathematical function that can distinguish between
different classes.

Scholars have studied mixed independent variables in Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machines
(SVM). Mahat [29] studied the process of selecting continuous variables in discriminant Analysis with
mixed independent variables. Mbina [25] investigated variable selection in discriminant Analysis, including
mixed categorical-continuous independent variables. Their research needs to address imbalanced class data
management and the utilisation of Information Value for variable selection. Guhathakurata [27] said that
SVM is the most effective method for categorising COVID-19 symptoms, but it has yet to address concerns
about imbalanced classes and variable selection. Anggrawan [30], in his research, explains the use of
SMOTE to overcome the problem of imbalanced data in SVM but needs to clarify the variable selection
approach, notably the usage of Information Value. This study intends to investigate the classification
outcomes of two techniques utilising data on the duration of COVID-19 recovery in West Sumatra, which
includes a combination of independent factors and unbalanced class data.

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METHODS
Data Collection
The study utilised secondary empirical data from the West Sumatra Regional Research and Development
Agency. The participants in this study are persons living in West Sumatra who tested positive for COVID-
19 (COVID-19 survivors) in 2021. This study uses the response variable of patient recovery duration after
being cured of COVID-19, categorised as recovery during the incubation phase (≤ 14 days) and recovery
beyond the incubation period (> 14 days).

The variables used in the study include mixed categorical and continuous independent variables, as shown
in Table 1.
Table 1. Description of dataset
Variables Features Type Description
1 : ≤ 14 days,
Y the duration of recovery for patients from COVID-19 Categorical
0 : >14 days
X1 Duration of COVID-19 Symptoms Disappearing Continuous Years
X2 Age Continuous Days
X3 Duration of Consumption Continuous Days
X4 Amount of Sungkai Leaves Consumed in the Potion Continuous Leaves
X5 Symptoms Experienced during COVID-19 Infection Categorical Mild, moderate, severe
X6 Number of Glasses Sungkai Leaf Potion Continuous Glass per day
X7 Daily Intensity of Drinking the Sungkai Leaf Potion Continuous Intensity per day
X8 Gender Categorical Male, female

Information Value
Information value (IV) is a commonly used techniques for selecting independent variables in classification
algorithms with binary answer variables. [31] The Information Value (IV) is computed by analysing data
for each independent variable, which is segmented into certain intervals referred to as bins
𝐵1 , 𝐵3 , 𝐵3 , … , 𝐵𝐵 }. Next, calculate the information value using equation [32].
|{(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ): 𝑥𝑖 ∈ 𝐵𝑏 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑔2 }|
𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑏 =
|{(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ): 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑔2 }|
|{(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ): 𝑥𝑖 ∈ 𝐵𝑏 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑔1 }|
𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑏 =
|{(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ): 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑔1 }|
𝑝𝑜𝑠
IV = ∑(𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑏 − 𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑏 ) × log ( 𝑏 )
𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑏

𝑥𝑖 represents data on the independent variable, 𝑦𝑖 represents data on the dependent variable, 𝐵𝑏 represents
the bth bin, and 𝑔1,2 represents categories on the dependent variable. The IV value can be a practical or
poor predictor of the independent variable's relationship before constructing the classification model.
Stojanovic [33] classifies IV values according to many parameters, as displayed in Table 2.

Table 2. IV Value categories

No Information Value Description
1 < 0.02 Unpredictive
2 0.02 ≤ IV < 0.1 Weak
3 0.1 ≤ IV < 0.3 Medium
4 ≥ 0.3 Strong

Resampling Data
Resampling is a technique utilised to address the issue of imbalanced data. Imbalanced data refers to a
situation where the answer variable contains a majority class and a minority class [34]. The majority class
contains more data than the minority class, resulting in an imbalance in the distribution of data points
between the two classes [35]. Imbalanced data might result in models that primarily categorise observations
into the most common class and show minor sensitivity to the less common class [36]. The study utilised
resampling techniques such as undersampling, oversampling, and Synthetic Minority Oversampling
Technique (SMOTE) to address data imbalance.

Discriminant Analysis with Mixed Independent Variables

Let us consider a random V divided into (𝑍 ′ |𝑋′)′', where Z represents a vector of d category variables, and
𝑋 represents a vector of 𝑝 continuous variables. Each unique set of components 𝑍1 , 𝑍2 , … , 𝑍𝑘 _k in vector Z
represents a state of the multinomial random variable 𝑊. Let the maximum number of potential states for

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𝑊 be denoted as 𝑘, where 𝑘 = 2𝑑 . 𝑊𝑚 represents state number-m. Please assume that the probability of
getting cell 𝑊𝑚 from vector 𝑊 _ is denoted as 𝑃𝑖𝑚 , where m ranges from 1 to k and i from 1 to 2. The
discriminant rule 𝑔 = 2 is defined by obtaining state 𝑊𝑚 from Z and then categorising 𝑣 into 𝜋1 if this
assumption is used.
1
(𝜇1𝑚 − 𝜇2𝑚 )𝑇 ∑−1 {𝑥 − (𝜇1𝑚 − 𝜇2𝑚 )} ≥ 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑃2𝑚 /𝑃1𝑚 ) (2)
2
And into 𝜋2 if it doesn't satisfy the above condition. 𝜇𝑖𝑚 represents the population mean for class 𝑖 in cell
𝑚. ∑ is the covariance matrix for the entire set of observations. 𝑥 is the vector of 𝑝 continuous variables,
and 𝑃𝑖𝑚 is the probability of an observation falling into population 𝑖 in cell 𝑚. The formula for ∑ is as
follows:
1 𝑛𝑖𝑚
∑̂ = ∑2𝑖=1 ∑𝑘𝑚=1 ∑𝑟=1 (𝑥𝑟𝑖𝑚 − 𝜇̂ 𝑖𝑚 )(𝑥𝑟𝑖𝑚 − 𝜇̂ 𝑖𝑚 )𝑇 (3)
(𝑛1 +𝑛2 −2𝑘)
Where 𝑛𝑖 is the number of observations in population-𝑖, 𝑘 is the number of cells. 𝑥𝑟𝑖𝑚 is the vector of
continuous variables for the r observation on cell-𝑚 and population-𝑖 and 𝑛𝑖𝑚 is the number of observations
in cell m, and population-𝑖.
𝜇̂ 𝑖𝑚 = 𝑥̅𝑖𝑚 (4)
𝑥̅𝑖𝑚 is the mean of observations in cell-𝑚 and population-𝑖. The equation for obtaining the value of 𝑃̂𝑖𝑚 is
as follow:
𝑛
𝑃̂𝑖𝑚 = 𝑖𝑚 (5)
𝑛𝑖
Where 𝑛𝑖𝑚 is the number of observations in cell-𝑚 and population-𝑖, while 𝑛𝑖 is the number of observations
in population-𝑖.

Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a classification technique that creates a hyperplane to separate data into
different classes. The SVM hyperplane is determined by computing the margin of the hyperplane and
identifying its highest point. The margin refers to the distance between the hyperplane and the nearest
instance of each class. The nearest occurrence of the hyperplane is referred to as the support vector. The
SVM hyperplane utilised possesses the widest margin between the classes. If the data is perfectly separable,
the objective function of the hyperplane with the most significant margin can be defined as:
1
𝑚𝑖𝑛 { ‖𝑤‖2 } (6)
2
With constraints
𝑦𝑖 (𝑤 𝑇 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) ≥ 1 (7)
With 𝑤 being a vector orthogonal to the hyperplane, 𝑥𝑖 s the training data vector, and 𝑦𝑖 as the class for the
𝑖-th training data where 𝑦𝑖 ∈ {−1,1} and b satiesfies the following equation :
𝑏 = 𝑦𝑖 − ∑𝑛𝑠𝑖=1 𝛼𝑖 𝑦𝑖 𝐾(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑗 ) (8)
With 𝛼𝑖 satiesfies the following equation :
0 ≤ 𝛼𝑖 ≤ 𝐶 (9)
The kernel function 𝐾(𝒙𝒊 , 𝒙𝒋 ) defines the geometry of the hyperplane. Linear, polynomial, and radial basis
function (RBF) kernels are frequently utilised kernel functions, as stated by Choubey [37] and Hussain
[38]. The following equations define three types of kernels.
a. kernel linear : 𝐾(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑗 ) = 𝑥𝑖 𝑥𝑗 (10)
2
b. kernel polynomial : 𝐾(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑗 ) = (𝑥𝑖𝑇 𝑥𝑗 + 1) (11)
2
c. kernel RBF : 𝐾(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑗 ) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (−𝛾‖𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥𝑗 ‖ ) (12)
Classification based on the optimal hyperplane function in equation is
𝑛𝑠

𝑔(𝑥) = 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 (𝑓(𝑥) = ∑ 𝛼𝑖 𝑦𝑖 𝐾(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑗 ) + 𝑏)

𝑖=1
1, 𝑓(𝑥) > 0
= { (13)
−1, 𝑓(𝑥) < 0

The measure of model goodness

An assessment of model quality is typically conducted to evaluate the model obtained [39]. The data is
imbalanced, so the model is evaluated using the balanced accuracy metric. One metric used to evaluate a
model's effectiveness with unbalanced data is balanced accuracy. [40] The formula for determining
balanced accuracy requires the data provided in Table 3.

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 Table 3. Confusion matrix
Actual
Prediction
𝜋1 𝜋2
𝜋1
TP FP
𝜋2 FN TN

Balance accuracy Formula:

𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦+𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = (10)
2

Sensitivity dan specificity is obtained using the following equation:,

𝑇𝑃
𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 = (11)
𝑇𝑃+𝐹𝑁

𝑇𝑁
𝑆𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑇𝑁+𝐹𝑃

The confusion matrix displays four possible combinations of predicted and actual values. The symbols 𝜋𝑖
𝑖 = 1,2 denote individual categories of the answer variable. TP (true positive) is the count of observations
correctly predicted to be in the first category. [41] False positive (FP) refers to the number of observations
anticipated to be in one category but belong to a different category. [42] False negative (FN) refers to the
number of observations anticipated to be in the second category but belong to the first category [43]. True
negative (TN) is the count of observations correctly predicted to be in the second category. [44] The
confusion matrix calculates different parameters to evaluate the model's performance [45]. Sensitivity and
Specificity are utilised to compute balanced accuracy, which is especially beneficial for addressing
imbalanced response variables [46].

Analysis Flowchart

Figure 1. Flowchart comparing discriminant analysis and SVM analysis.

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Analysis begins with examining the response and independent variables, and independent variables are
chosen based on information values. A variance-covariance matrix equivalence test is conducted, with the
data split into 75% training data and 25% testing data. Subsequently, data imbalance was rectified using
undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE methodologies. Modelling was conducted using Discriminant
Analysis and SVM, and the balanced accuracy values were compared. The optimal model demonstrates the
highest level of balanced accuracy [47].

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

This study utilised data on the recovery time of COVID-19 patients in West Sumatra Province who took
sungkai leaves during their rehabilitation. Data was gathered from 428 participants who had tested positive
for COVID-19 and eaten sungkai leaves while recovering. Out of the participants, 338 recovered within (≤
14 days) of the incubation period (>14 days)., whereas 90 recovered after this period. 78.97% of responders
recovered within the incubation time, whereas 21.02% recovered after the incubation period. The data
distribution shows an imbalance in the response variable, necessitating the employment of a resampling
technique to address this issue. Resampling techniques employed are undersampling, oversampling, and
SMOTE. These three methods on the dataset aim to standardise the number of observations in each category
of response variables to address the data imbalance. The study examined independent variables such as
gender, symptoms during COVID-19 infection, age, duration of symptom disappearance after confirmed
infection, and the quantity of sungkai leaves utilised in preparing sungkai leaf mixture.

Data Exploration
This study uses mixed independent variables, including continuous and categorical variables. Figure 2
displays a summary of the continuous independent variables.

Figure 2. Boxplot for each continuous independent variable.

Figure 2 displays a boxplot for each continuous independent variable. Outliers were observed regarding
age, duration of COVID-19 symptoms fading, number of sungkai leaves consumed in the concoction, and
number of glasses of sungkai leaf concoction. Data exploration of categorical independent variables may
be found in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Bar chart of categorical independent variables

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Figure 3 displays the descriptive Analysis of the category-independent variables. The dataset included 123
male respondents and 305 female respondents. There are 351 individuals with mild symptoms, 60 with
moderate symptoms, and 28 with severe symptoms when exposed to COVID-19.

Preprocessing Data
The information value of each independent variable is utilised to select independent variables that impact
the dependent variable. The information value indicates the impact of the independent variable on the
dependent variable. The data values are displayed in Table 4.

Table 4. Information value of each independent variable

Independent Variables IV Description
Duration of COVID-19 Symptoms Disappearing 1.1009 Strong Predictor
Age 0.5048 Strong Predictor
Duration of Consumption 0.2548 Medium Predictor
Amount of Sungkai Leaves Consumed in the Potion 0.1801 Medium Predictor
Symptoms Experienced during COVID-19 Infection 0.1049 Medium Predictor
Number of Glasses Sungkai Leaf Potion 0.0459 Weak Predictor
Daily Intensity of Drinking the Sungkai Leaf Potion 0.0161 Unpredictive
Gender 0.0043 Unpredictive

Table 4 indicates that out of the eight independent variables, there are two variables with predictive solid
power, three with moderate predictive power, one with weak predictive power, and two unpredictable
factors. This study utilises independent variables categorised as strong and moderate predictors based on
their information value. The study utilised the independent factors of age, duration of COVID-19 symptom
resolution, duration of sungkai leaf intake, symptoms during COVID-19 infection, and the quantity of
sungkai leaves consumed in the herbal remedy. The covariance homogeneity test was conducted on the
continuous independent variables. Prior to performing discriminant Analysis, a covariance homogeneity
test must be executed. Assessing covariance homogeneity with Box's M technique [48]. The Box's M test
yielded a p-value of 0.333. If the p-value is more significant than α (0.05), it indicates that the data meets
the condition of covariance homogeneity.

The study data necessitates a method to address unbalanced data due to the disproportionate distribution of
the response variable data. Uneven data distribution on response variables can lead the model to exhibit
bias towards categorising objects into the predominant class, diminishing prediction accuracy [49]. The
dataset was divided into 75% for training data and 25% for testing data before modelling. Training data is
utilised to construct the model, whereas testing data is employed to assess the model. The study utilised
resampling to address the issue of data imbalance. The study involved resampling techniques such as
undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE. Table 5 displays the quantity of data following resampling.

Table 5. The number of data based on the response variable

The number of data
Recover during the Recover after the
Resampling
incubation period (≤14 incubation period (>14
days) days)
Without resampling 253 (79.06%) 67 (20.93%)
Undersampling 67 (50%) 67 (50%)
Oversampling 253 (50%) 253 (50%)
SMOTE 253 (50%) 253 (50%)

Based on Table 5, it can be seen that by using the undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE technique,
the data on the response variable has been balanced.

Discriminant analysis with mixed independent variables.

Categorical independent variables are handled differently in discriminant Analysis with mixed independent
variables compared to other classification methods. Support Vector Machines often manage categorical
independent variables by transforming them into dummy variables. In discriminant Analysis with mixed
independent variables, categorical independent variables are handled by constructing cells according to the
mixture of categories in the variable. One categorical independent variable, "Symptoms Experienced
During COVID-19 Infection," will be employed in discriminant Analysis based on the variable selection
method. This category-independent variable will create distinct categories in the discriminant Analysis. The
Analysis categorises cells as "mild symptoms", "moderate symptoms", and "severe symptoms". The model

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relies on these cells and the management of imbalanced data. Table 6 shows the cell arrangement derived
from the training data.

Table 6. Proportion of training data

Proportion of Training Data Based on Response
Variable
Analisis Diskriminan Sel Recovered within the Recovered after the
incubation period (≤14 incubation period (>14
days) days)
Severe 0.0375 0.0187
Without Resampling Moderate 0.1031 0.0343
Mild 0.6500 0.1562
Severe 0.0223 0.0447
Undersampling Moderate 0.0597 0.0746
Mild 0.4477 0.3507
Severe 0.0237 0.0573
Oversampling Moderate 0.0652 0.0928
Mild 0.4110 0.3498
Severe 0.0237 0.0415
SMOTE Moderate 0.0652 0.0770
Mild 0.4110 0.3814

Table 6 displays the percentage of each training data set using unbalanced data handling. A discriminant
analysis model was created for each training data set. The discriminant analysis models were compared
using their balanced accuracy scores. The optimal model is the one with the maximum balanced accuracy.
Table 7 displays the balanced accuracy values for each model.

Table 7. Evaluation of model fit in discriminant analysis

Goodness-of-Fit Values
No Metode Balance Sensitivity Specificity
Accuracy
1 Discriminant Analysis without resampling 0.6500 0.6520 0.6470
2 Discriminant Analysis with undersampling 0.6280 0.6090 0.6470
3 Discriminant Analysis with oversampling 0.6530 0.5650 0.7410
4 Discriminant Analysis with SMOTE 0.6654 0.6957 0.6353

Table 7 displays the overall accuracy value of four models in predicting the recovery duration of COVID-
19 patients in West Sumatra using the testing data. The undersampling strategy in mixed independent
variable discriminant Analysis reduces accuracy, which differs from earlier studies that found this method
can improve accuracy [16]. Previous research has shown that oversampling and SMOTE are valuable
methods for addressing unbalanced data and improving accuracy. [17] [22] The discriminant analysis
model, utilising the SMOTE approach for unbalanced data handling, is considered the best due to its
excellent balanced accuracy value of 66.54%.

Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Multiple kernel methods will be utilised to construct a hyperplane through the Support Vector Machine
(SVM) technique. Kernel methods include linear, polynomial, and radial basis function (RBF) kernels. All
three kernels will be utilised in the modelling procedure. This method also includes hyperparameter
adjustment. SVM hyperparameter tuning involves adjusting the gamma (γ) and penalty (C) parameters.
According to Hsu [50], a suitable range for gamma parameters (γ) is between 2−15, 2−13,... 23when the
penalty parameter (C) falls within the range of 2−5, 2−3,... 215. The study involves choosing the gamma
value (γ) and penalty amount (C) within a specific range. Hyperparameter tuning will be conducted on all
three kernel types using various datasets. The model's performance on the test data is presented in Table 8.

Table 8. Model performance metrics in discriminant analysis

Goodness of fit value
No Method Balance Sensitivity Specificity
Accuracy
1 SVM linear kernel without resampling 0.5000 0.0000 1.0000
2 SVM linear kernel with undersampling 0.5767 0.5652 0.5882
3 SVM linear kernel with oversampling 0.6238 0.5652 0.6824
4 SVM linear kernel with SMOTE 0.6320 0.6522 0.6118
5 SVM polynomial kernel without resampling 0.5000 0.0000 1.0000
6 SVM polynomial kernel with undersampling 0.5158 0.0434 0.9882

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 7 SVM polynomial kernel with oversampling 0.5158 0.0434 0.9882
8 SVM polynomial kernel with SMOTE 0.5158 0.0434 0.9882
9 SVM RBF kernel without resampling 0.5000 0.0000 1.0000
10 SVM RBF kernel with undersampling 0.5409 0.4347 0.6470
11 SVM RBF kernel with oversampling 0.5468 0.4347 0.6558
12 SVM RBF kernel with SMOTE 0.5291 0.4347 0.6235

Table 8 displays the balanced accuracy values of 12 models used to predict test data. The utilisation of
undersampling, oversampling, and SMOTE in SVM aligns with prior studies that have demonstrated the
effectiveness of these methods in addressing data imbalance issues and enhancing accuracy. [16] [17] [22]
The linear kernel SVM with SMOTE stands out as the top-performing model among the 12, boasting a
balanced accuracy value of 63.20%.

Comparison of model performance

A study was conducted to compare Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models to
identify the optimal model for categorising the recovery duration of COVID-19 patients in West Sumatra.
The models being compared are the top outcomes from each Analysis. The top-performing discriminant
analysis model, utilising the SMOTE resampling technique, generates a confusion matrix in Table 9.

Table 9. Confusion matrix discriminant analysis with SMOTE

Actual
Prediction
>14 days ≤ 14 days

>14 days 16 31
≤ 14 days 7 54

Sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy values from the confusion matrix are as follows,
16
𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = 0.6957
16+7
54
𝑆𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = 0.6353
54+31
𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦+𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 0.6957+0.6353
𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = = = 0.6654
2 2
The optimal SVM model, utilizing the SMOTE resampling method, yields the confusion matrix results
presented in Table 10.

Table 10. Confusion matrix SVM with SMOTE

Actual
Prediction
>14 days ≤ 14 days
>14 days 15 33
≤ 14 days 8 52

Sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy values from the confusion matrix are as follows,
15
𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = 0.6522
15+8
52
𝑆𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = 0.6118
52+33
𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦+𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 0.6522+0.6118
𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = = = 0.6320
2 2

Based on the evaluation results of the best model from both methods, you can see the comparison of these
two models in Table 11.
Table 11. Comparative evaluation of model fit
Goodness of fit value
No Metode Balance Sensitivity Specificity
Accuracy
1 Discriminant Analysis with SMOTE 0.6654 0.6957 0.6353
2 SVM Linear Kernel with SMOTE 0.6320 0.6522 0.6118

Table 11 displays the adequacy of fit for each Analysis. The Discriminant Analysis applied to imbalanced
data with the SMOTE method yielded a sensitivity of 69.57%, Specificity of 63.53%, and balanced
accuracy of 66.54%. The linear kernel Support Vector Machine with SMOTE achieved a sensitivity of

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65.22%, Specificity of 61.18%, and balanced accuracy of 63.20%. The Discriminant Analysis model
achieved the most excellent balanced accuracy rating of 66.54% across the two analyses. Discriminant
Analysis outperforms the Support Vector Machine approach in predicting COVID-19 recovery time in
West Sumatra. Discriminant Analysis is more effective than SVM in classifying observations in the
recovery time data of COVID-19 patients in West Sumatra, as indicated by the highly balanced accuracy
value. Furthermore, the high balanced accuracy value suggests that discriminant Analysis is better at
categorising observations into major and minor data classes than SVM.

CONCLUSION
Analysis results indicate that addressing data imbalance using SMOTE yields the highest balanced accuracy
for both approaches in this dataset. Discriminant Analysis with data balancing using SMOTE achieves a
balanced accuracy of 66.54%. However, employing the support vector machine technique with a linear
kernel and data balancing by SMOTE yielded a balancing accuracy of 63.20%. The results indicate that the
discriminant analysis model outperforms the support vector machine on this dataset.

Recommendations for future research based on the study findings. Future research should investigate the
impact of underlying disorders or comorbidities on the duration of COVID-19 recovery using COVID-19
data. Another recommendation is to perform research utilising discriminant analysis and support vector
machine (SVM) approaches on a spatial level, incorporating mixed independent variables.

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