MSIMIdeas 2020 Opportunitiesin Asia Private Equity
MSIMIdeas 2020 Opportunitiesin Asia Private Equity
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. FOR EXCLUSIVE USE AT IDEAS LONDON. NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION CRC 2911142 Exp. 01/27/2021
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The document is a general communication which is not impartial and has been prepared solely for information and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a
recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The material contained herein has not been based on a consideration of any
individual client circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors
should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.
Any views expressed are those of the presenter as of the date of the presentation and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The views
expressed do not reflect the opinions of all portfolio managers at MSIM or the views of the firm as a whole and may not be reflected in the strategies and products that the Firm offers.
Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. Forecasts/estimates are based on current market conditions, subject to change, and may not necessarily come
to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Indexes do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Indexes are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible
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Any information regarding expected market returns and market outlook is based on the research, analysis, and opinions of the presenter. They are based on current market
conditions and subject to change. In addition, these conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass, and are not intended to predict the future of any specific Morgan
Stanley investment management product. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information.
Any information regarding expected market returns and market outlook is based on the research, analysis, and opinions of the presenter. They are based on current market
conditions and subject to change. In addition, these conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass, and are not intended to predict the future of any specific Morgan
Stanley investment management product. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information.
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dissemination of investment research.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.
39.9%
40%
30%
22.5%
18.7%
20%
15.2%
10% 7.6%
0%
Asia China U.S. Europe Latin America
Population
3,622 1,390 328 828 646
(million)
Source: Euromonitor 2019
1. GDP measured at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Asia includes China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand. Europe includes Austria,
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
16,931
16,000
13,602
8,000
5,064 5,419
3,994 4,151
2,795 3,383
1,619 2,433 2,822
1,187 1,104
0
China India South Korea Germany U.K. Latin America U.S.
Increase $8,538 $1,608 $515 $611 $389 $1,268 $3,563
2006 2018
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All forecasts are speculative, subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to economic and market conditions.
Source: Oxford Economics, Euromonitor 2019
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All forecasts are speculative, subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to economic and market conditions.
This document reflects the views and opinions of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia and is based on matters as they exist as of date of the commentary and not as of any future date, and does not contend to address the financial objectives,
situation or specific needs of any individual investor. Of course, these views may change in response to changing circumstances and market conditions and the information will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that
subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring after the date hereof.
Source: Morgan Stanley Equity Research
U.S. China
The above reflects the views and opinions of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia team and is based on matters as they exist as of date of the commentary and not as of any future date, and does not contend to address the
financial objectives, situation or specific needs of any individual investor.
Source:
1. UHY Consulting as of December 11, 2017
2. Capital IQ as of July 23, 2019
3. Capital IQ as of June 17, 2019
4. Huron Report, November 2018
146
140
3,000
1,881
70
0 0
2016 2020E 2014 2015 2016
• $2,000 – 4,000 GDP Per Capita (1) • $2,000 – 4,000 GDP Per Capita (1)
• $10,000 – 20,000 GDP Per Capita (1) • $8,000 – 12,000 GDP Per Capita (1)
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Manufacturing Services
1. Data as of September 30, 2019, including co-investments. Values above are presented on a gross basis, and have not been adjusted to reflect the deduction of management fees, expenses and carried interest, if any. Gross MoM and IRR
for overall MSPEA portfolio across region, including unrealized portfolio companies, is 2.4x and 24.7% respectively. The Net MoM and IRR for overall MSPEA portfolio as of September 30, 2019, the latest period for which net
figures are available, is 1.7x and 18.5% respectively. For additional information, please see the complete investment track record in the appendix
2. Thomson Reuters as of August 21, 2019, and CNN.com (https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/30/investing/naspers-tencent-share-price/index.html)
GDP Growth Slowdown, Keqiang Index Declined SHSE Index Plummeted to Last Stock Market Crash (2015) Level
2004 – 2018 2008 – 2019
% % #
15% 30% 6,000
20 12 7.3
10 6 6.6
0 0 5.9
Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18 Dec-18
5.3
# of occurrance Total value affected by default 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Wind October 31, 2019, Morgan Stanley Research April 30, 2019 Source: Bloomberg, December 31, 2019
Total Retail Growth Rate Fell to Single Digit for the First Time Since 2008 Auto Sales Declined for the First Time Since 2008
2008–2018 2011–2018
YoY% # of Autos, MM
30% 30 24.7
22% 23% 24.4
21.1 22.4
18% 19.7
17.9
20% 15% 14% 14% 20 15.5
12% 13.8 14.5
11% 10% 10% 10.3
10% 4% 10 6.8
0% 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Wind, October 31, 2019 Source: Wind, October 31, 2019
Housing Market Sales Growth Rate Declined # of Listed Companies Issuing Profit Warning Almost Double
2008–2018 2016–2018
SqM Sold YoY % #
60% 44% 150
109 110
40% 23% 100 78 69 69
17% 52
20% 11% 7% 8%
4% 2% 1% 50
(8%)
0%
0
2016 2017 2018
(20%)
Expected Loss Dramatic Decline
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Wind, October 31, 2019 Source: Wind, October 31, 2019
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All forecasts are speculative, subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to economic and market conditions.
Overcapacity of Old Industries Led to Stagnant Growth New Economy Still Small as % of GDP
2018 2018
Overcapacity % % of GDP
36% 9%
7.9%
30.1%
29.4%
28.1%
26.6%
25.8% 6.4%
24% 6%
4.5%
3.7%
12% 3%
0% 0%
Nonmetal Mineral Coal Mining Utility Chemical Raw Healthcare Internet Transportation & Advanced
Products Marterial Logistics Manufaturing
Material
Source: Wind, October 31, 2019 Source: National Bureau of Statistics in China, April 31, 2019
The above reflects the views and opinions of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia and is based on matters as they exist as of date of the commentary and not as of any future date, and does not contend to address the financial objectives,
situation or specific needs of any individual investor. Of course, these views may change in response to changing circumstances and market conditions and the information will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that
subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring after the date hereof.
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Export
Source: Public information, Wind, October 31, 2019
The above reflects the views and opinions of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia and is based on matters as they exist as of date of the commentary and not as of any future date, and does not contend to address the financial objectives,
situation or specific needs of any individual investor. Of course, these views may change in response to changing circumstances and market conditions and the information will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that
subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring after the date hereof.
Source: Xinhua, PBoC, Government Websites, Morgan Stanley Research, October 31, 2019
The above reflects the views and opinions of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia team and is based on matters as they exist as of date of the commentary and not as of any future date, and does not contend to address the financial objectives,
situation or specific needs of any individual investor.
1. The above has not been based on a consideration of any individual client circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should i t be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek
independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.
2. Caixin as of June 18, 2019 (https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-06-18/china-urges-big-brokerages-to-support-smaller-non-banks-101428013.html)
Corporate, Individual
& Others
20%
6%
Infrastructure
3% 50%
0% Real Estate
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30%
8,000 60
4,000
30
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0
5G Direct Output 5G Indirect Output 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Source: iimedia Research, October 31, 2019 Source: China 2018 AI Development Report, Internet Society of China, October 31, 2019
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All forecasts are speculative, subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to economic and market conditions.
Investing in Asia
A Snapshot of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia(1)
• Experienced in both Growth Capital (e.g., China, India) and Control Buyouts (e.g., Korea and China)
Vast majority of capital is from third party, institutional funds (pension funds, SWF, FOF, endowments, financial institutions,
family offices, etc..,)
Morgan Stanley also very active in Real Estate, Infrastructure and Fund of Funds investing throughout Asia
The opinions above are those of the presenter(s) as of the date of the presentation and are
subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions
The opinions above are those of the presenter(s) as of the date of the presentation and are
subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions
The opinions above are those of the presenter(s) as of the date of the presentation and are
subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions
• Opaqueness is an “inefficiency”
• Often times deals are won based on qualitative, rather than quantitative, factors
• Combined with volatility, opaqueness can allow investors to “make money on the buy”
The opinions above are those of the presenter(s) as of the date of the presentation and are
subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions.
Please see complete investment track record in the appendix for more information
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
1. Includes MSPEA-advised investments from 2014 onwards as of September 30, 2019.
• 26+ Year Track Record: • Morgan Stanley is one of the most • Chairman / CEO
– Driving inorganic growth well-known, trusted and prestigious
through M&A international brands in Asia • Chaebol(1)
– Operating partner value-add,
• Family relationships
including supply chain
management, manufacturing
• Intermediary relationships
streamlining, team-building, etc.
– Governance enhancements
• Depth of industry understanding
Low Entry Price from Exclusive Deals Focus on Market Leaders Fast Top-line Growth
• Asia is more “opaque” than US and Europe • MSPEA has focused its investments • MSPEA focuses on mid-cap, fast
• Deals in Asia are often won on “qualitative” on market leaders in attractive growing businesses
factors, rather than just price growth industries • Investing in sectors at the cusp of
• Exclusive deal sourcing translates to lower • The Morgan Stanley “brand” provides consolidation
entry pricing credibility to attract the best companies • Taking market share points is the key
to top-line growth
MSPEA Industries:
• Healthcare
MSPEA Pricing in Past 5 Years (1):
• Education
• Vocational Training
Exclusive Deals: 90%
• Retail Finance
Control Pricing: 6.8x EV/EBITDA
• Business Services
Minority Pricing: 11.1x P/E • Lifestyle
• Consumer Products
• Childcare spending
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Company Management Source: Company Management
300 633
147 800
93 232 337
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Company Management Source: Company Management
For more information on the other MSPEA portfolio companies in this sector, please see complete investment track record in the appendix
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Company Management Source: Company Management
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Source: Company Management Source: Company Management
For more information on the other MSPEA portfolio companies in this sector, please see complete investment track record in the appendix
• Pay entry prices below the US and Europe, taking advantage of opaqueness
• Lower pricing leads to less aggressive capital structure (compared to US and European PE)
The opinions above are those of the presenter(s) as of the date of the presentation and are
subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions
Source: MSPEA. The results above are not intended to predict the performance of any specific investment and no performance of any specific investment and no performance of any fund is predicted. Similarly, there can be no assurance that
any fund similar to any described above or otherwise will achieve, or be able to achieve, comparable results or its investment objectives or avoid substantial losses. Please refer to the Endnotes on Investment Track Record in Section 6 for
important disclosures regarding the financial information in this presentation.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
1. North Haven Private Equity Asia V, L.P. (“Fund V”), commenced operations on September 24, 2018. This chart includes co-investments as well as all realized and unrealized investments made by Fund V as of September 30, 2019, except
. where otherwise noted. Please see “Company Specific Notes” later in this section for notes on the valuation of specific portfolio companies.
2. Values above (other than net IRR information) are presented on a gross basis, and have not been adjusted to reflect the deduction of management fees, expenses and carried interest, if any.
3. Although this disclosure is required by reporting guidelines, the General Partner believes that the internal rate of return of -9.9%, at this point in the Funds’ term, is not a meaningful measure of performance of the Funds due to the short
duration of the Funds’ investment activities and the long-term nature of the Limited Partners’ investment in the Funds. Fund V commenced operations in September 2018.
Source: MSPEA. The results above are not intended to predict the performance of any specific investment and no performance of any specific investment and no performance of any fund is predicted. Similarly, there can be no assurance that
any fund similar to any described above or otherwise will achieve, or be able to achieve, comparable results or its investment objectives or avoid substantial losses. Please refer to the Endnotes on Investment Track Record in Section 6 for
important disclosures regarding the financial information in this presentation.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
1. North Haven Private Equity Asia IV, L.P. (“Fund IV”), commenced operations on November 29, 2012. This chart includes co-investments as well as all realized and unrealized investments made by Fund IV as of September 30, 2019, except
where otherwise noted. Please see “Company Specific Notes” later in this section for notes on the valuation of specific portfolio companies.
2. Values above (other than net IRR information) are presented on a gross basis, and have not been adjusted to reflect the deduction of management fees, expenses and carried interest, if any.
3. Formerly / also referred to as Jinyun in other / prior MSPEA materials
Source: MSPEA. The results above are not intended to predict the performance of any specific investment and no performance of any specific investment and no performance of any fund is predicted. Similarly, there can be no assurance that
any fund similar to any described above or otherwise will achieve, or be able to achieve, comparable results or its investment objectives or avoid substantial losses. Please refer to the Endnotes on Investment Track Record in Section 6 for
important disclosures regarding the financial information in this presentation.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
1. North Haven Private Equity Asia IV, L.P. (“Fund IV”), commenced operations on November 29, 2012. This chart includes co-investments as well as all realized and unrealized investments made by Fund IV as of September 30, 2019, except
where otherwise noted. Please see “Company Specific Notes” later in this section for notes on the valuation of specific portfolio companies.
2. Values above (other than net IRR information) are presented on a gross basis, and have not been adjusted to reflect the deduction of management fees, expenses and carried interest, if any.
3. Net IRR figure excludes co-investments and reflects gross IRR less deductions for management fees and expenses actually charged to the fund and accrued carried interest related to gain or loss embedded in the remaining portfolio.
4. The fund reports in USD and conducts its capital calls and distributions in USD. Thus, the fund has executed an FX strategy to reduce its FX exposure from the non-USD denominated investments. Currency hedges include both OTC FX
Forwards and OTC FX Options (purchased and sold).
Source: MSPEA. The results above are not intended to predict the performance of any specific investment and no performance of any specific investment and no performance of any fund is predicted. Similarly, there can be no assurance that
any fund similar to any described above or otherwise will achieve, or be able to achieve, comparable results or its investment objectives or avoid substantial losses. Please refer to the Endnotes on Investment Track Record in Section 6 for
important disclosures regarding the financial information in this presentation.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
1. Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia L.P. (“Fund II”), commenced operations on April 25, 2005. This chart includes co-investments as well as all realized and unrealized investments made by Fund II as of September 30, 2019, except where
otherwise noted. Please see “Company Specific Notes” later in this section for notes on the valuation of specific portfolio companies.
2. Values above (other than net IRR information) are presented on a gross basis, and have not been adjusted to reflect the deduction of management fees, expenses and carried interest, if any.
3. Net IRR figure excludes co-investments and reflects gross IRR less deductions for management fees and expenses actually charged to the fund and accrued carried interest related to gain or loss embedded in the remaining portfolio.
4. The fund reports in USD and conducts its capital calls and distributions in USD. Thus, the fund has executed an FX strategy to reduce its FX exposure from the non-USD denominated investments. Currency hedges include both OTC FX
Forwards and OTC FX Options (purchased and sold).
The performance information described herein covers investments by funds managed by MSPEA, and certain co-investments managed or advised by MSPEA. Prospective investors
should not assume that investments made by any future MSPEA fund will be profitable or will perform similarly to the investments included in this presentation. Past performance is
not a guarantee of future results.
Unrealized investments have generally been valued by MSPEA in accordance with the following guidelines except where otherwise noted: (i) publicly traded securities are valued as
of September 30, 2019 market prices; and (ii) private securities are valued by MSPEA as of September 30, 2019 based upon analysis of relevant factors including market
comparables, income and earnings, and cost, as deemed appropriate by MSPEA. There can be no assurance that the values reported herein are indicative of the values ultimately
realized. Actual returns on unrealized investments will depend on a number of factors, including future operating results and the value of the assets and market conditions at the time
of realization, all of which may differ significantly from the assumptions and circumstances upon which the values reported herein are based. Further information on valuations is
available upon request.
Gross IRR reflects returns before deducting certain expenses borne by investors, including management fees and carried interest, if any. Net IRR reflects returns after deducting
certain expenses, including management fees and carried interest, if any. Net IRR has been calculated separately for each fund on a pro forma basis and may not reflect the amount
an investor in such fund would have actually realized on its investments. To the extent an investment has any unrealized value, such amount is treated as a cash flow to the relevant
fund occurring on September 30, 2019, except where otherwise noted. Additional information regarding IRR calculations is available to prospective investors upon request.
Transaction summaries and other selected investments are intended as examples of how MSPEA has successfully leveraged its resources, relationships and franchise to make
attractive investments. They are not intended to be complete or representative of investments made by prior funds. There can be no assurance that future MSPEA funds will be
successful in identifying similar investments.
Since MSPEA was established, certain investment professionals associated with MSPEA have changed. The current investment team does not necessarily represent all investment
professionals associated with the investments made by the Predecessor Funds described herein. Individuals involved in making prior investment and divestment decisions may no
longer be associated with MSPEA.
Ireland: Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Ireland) Limited. Registered Office: The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's, Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland. Registered in Ireland under company number 616662. Regulated by the Central Bank
of Ireland. United Kingdom: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square,
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Italy: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) is a branch of Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited, a company registered in the UK, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority (FCA), and whose registered office is at 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London, E14 4QA. Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) with seat in Palazzo Serbelloni Corso
Venezia, 16 20121 Milano, Italy, is registered in Italy with company number and VAT number 08829360968. The Netherlands: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Rembrandt Tower, 11th Floor Amstelplein 1 1096HA, Netherlands.
Telephone: 31 2-0462-1300. Morgan Stanley Investment Management is a branch office of Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited. Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. Switzerland: Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London, Zurich BranchI Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht ("FINMA"). Registered with the Register of
Commerce Zurich CHE-115.415.770. Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, Telephone +41 (0) 44 588 1000. Facsimile Fax: +41(0) 44 588 1074.
The views and opinions expressed here are of the presenting portfolio managers and are subject to change based on market conditions. They are not the views of all the portfolio managers of MSIM or of the firm as a whole. Except as otherwise
indicated herein, the views and opinions expressed herein are based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently
becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date hereof.
All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright law and may not be reproduces or distributed to any other persons. In addition, this Presentation is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any
security or instrument or participate in any investment strategy. All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities in the sectors and regions referenced.
Information regarding expected market returns and market outlook is based on the research, analysis, and opinions of the presenter. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass, and are not intended to predict the future
of any specific MSIM investment.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any information regarding expected market returns and market outlook is based on the research, analysis, and opinions of the presenter. They are based on current market conditions and
subject to change. In addition, these conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass, and are not intended to predict the future of any specific Morgan Stanley investment. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to
the accuracy or completeness of the information
All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. The material contained herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual client circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any
way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.
This Presentation is based on information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. Morgan Stanley disclaims any and all liability relating to these materials, including, without limitation, any express or implied
representations or warranties for statements or errors contained in, or omissions from, this information. Certain assumptions may have been made in the preparation of this information.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without MSIM’s express written consent.
All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright law