Market Insights from CBREs
Hanoi Quarterly Report
Presented by:
Marc Townsend Managing Director
CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Thanh Tran Senior Manager
CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. July 6th 2010
HANOI ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
H1/2010 GDP growth : 10.1% y-o-y
Significantly exceeded the national average GDP (approx. 6.16%) industry-construction sector (11.5%), service sector (9.1%) agricultural sector (7.3%). 10.1% growth rate: comparable to levels recorded in 2007-2008 prior to the financial crisis.
FDI in Q2/2010 alone: US$70 million, 75 projects
Q1/2010: US$30 million, 60 projects
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HANOI ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Trade Balance Q2/2010:
Import turnover: US$5.6 billion, increased 16. 67% y-o-y Export turnover: US$1.8 billion, increased 11.39% y-o-y
CPI H1/2010: 9.44% (national avg.: approx. 5.13%)
Little change q-o-q (Q1/2010: 9.58%) Government measures aimed to keep annual inflation around 8%.
Tourism sector recorded strong numbers:
International arrivals increased 31.87% y-o-y from 229,000 to 302,000 Domestic arrivals increased 33% y-o-y from 1.3 million to 1.85 million
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
Upgrade of the Hanoi Noi Bai Railway approved: stretching 38 km from Ha Dong to Noi Bai International Airport The Phap Van Cau Gie Road to be upgraded to a highway and connect to Cau Gie Ninh Binh Highway Song Da Corporation has offered to build the remaining sections of Ring Road 3.5, from National Road 32 to National Road 1A.
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
Cat Linh Ha Dong Urban Railway clearing ground to finish in Q2/2011. In June, Phase 2 of Ring Road 3 started construction: Hanois first raised highway stretching 8.9 km from North Linh Dam to Mai Dich above the existing Pham Hung road . Construction started on upgrading the 10 km Hanoi Hung Yen Dyke Road, completion: late 2010.
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE
The Proposed Hanoi Capital Construction Master Plan for 2030 with a Vision to 2050
The Master Plan proposal was released to the general public for comments in late April 2010. Emphasis on development to the west of Hanoi facilitated by: The Green Corridor 5 Satellite towns of Hanoi The Thang Long Axis
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CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Le Van Luong HIGHLIGHTS Residential Cleve Mulberry Lane Canal Park
Land prices fluctuated significantly in Q2/2010 in the Western area, especially in Ba Vi, drawing public attention away from other sectors including condominium sector Condominium new supply in Q2/2010: 4,600 units, (Q1/2010: 5,100 units, Q2/2009:2,100 units) On the secondary market, asking prices increased302 Cau Giay rising 3% in the mid-end, high-end in all segments: and luxury segment, and 9% in the low-end segment. Decree 23/2010/NQ-CP lending rate to drop to 12%-13% (current rate: 14%-17%): ease financing and boost residential demand Decree 71/2010/ND-CP: Before the foundation is completed, developers can mobilize capital from multiple sources. But capital can only be exchanged for a maximum of 20% of residential units; this share can be sold outside trading floors The remaining 80% of residential units must be traded under purchase contracts via trading floors.
The Pride
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CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
The Pride 302 Cau Giay Vincom Royal City 302 Cau Giay The Pride
Current classification of condominium was heavily based on price with consideration of location, quality, brand - E.g by price: luxury (>$2.500 psm), high-end (US$1,300-$2,500) mid-end (US$800-$1,500) low-end (<$900 psm)
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CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
SUPPLY
New supply in Q2: 4,587 units By grade: 3% luxury, 50% high-end, 45% midend, 2% low-end
Mid-end continues to be a strong segment Low-end continues to be small
By district: 42% in Thanh Xuan, 29% in Ha Dong, 24% in Cau Giay & Tu Liem combined, 5% others
Thanh Xuans share is made up entirely of the Royal City project with 2,000 units launched Ha Dong continues to be home to a significant share of residential developments. High rise developments in core districts, namely Hoan Kiem, Ba Dinh, Hai Ba Trung, Dong Da have been on temporarily stopped by the Government for inspection since Q1
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CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
DEMAND Primary market: Strong demand for affordable units: 99 units of Dang Xa NUA, launched at US$622 psm (excluding VAT) were bought within two days of launch. Low demand for units priced at US$1,500 psm and above: High-end projects launched in previous quarters offer discounts, bank financing support, and favourable payment terms to quicken sales progress. A positive development is the launch of Royal City late June (2,000 units, US$2,000 psm): Buyers queued on the first few days to deposit money It remains unclear whether most buyers are end-users, or investors. Secondary market prices: Low-end segment, averaging at US$950 psm, attainted highest growth (9%), further supporting the idea of stronger demand for units priced below US$1,000 psm.
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CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
District Tu Liem Cau Giay Thanh Xuan Tu Liem Dong Da Ha Dong Gia Lam Grade Luxury High-end High-end Mid-end Mid-end Mid-end Low-end Average launch price (US$ psm VAT exclusive) 1,650 1,950 800 1,350 1,100 650
CAPITAL VALUES Primary market: 55% of newly-launched projects are priced at below US$1,100 psm, 45% at above US$1,100 psm. 40% of newly-launched units are priced at below US$1,100 psm, 60% at above US$1,100 psm. Upper-end: fewer projects, more units in each project. Royal City: 2,000 units launched in June Secondary market: Small increase of around 3% in mid-end, high-end and luxury segments. Low-end segment: highest growth of 9% Price adjustments were small as greater attention was paid to the land market for more than half of Q2 2010.
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CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
OUTLOOK
H2/2010 new supply: Approx. 10,000 units 2010 total new supply: close to 20,000 units The greatest share of units will be in Ha Dong. Currently, more projects are being planned in Ha Dong than any other districts from 2010 till 2012. More competition is expected in the future, forcing developers to differentiate projects by offering better quality construction and design, a commitment to development progress, at the same price. 2005-2009 annual supply growth rate: 20% p.a. H1/2010 total supply is 41% higher than H1/2009 total supply
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OFFICE
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
OFFICE
HIGHLIGHTS One new project came on stream: HanoiTourist Building (Grade B), 7,600 sm NLA Rents
Grade A: US$39.66 psm, dropped 5.9% q-o-q This is the first time since Q3/2007 that the overall asking rents in Grade A building stayed below US$40 psm. Grade B: US$26.42 psm (unchanged)
Net absorption improved significantly this quarter from last quarter
Grade A: approx. 2,000 sm Grade B: approx. 17,000 sm
Average vacancy: 15.42%, approx. 70,000 sm vacant (Grade A and B)
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OFFICE
OUTLOOK
In the western districts , supply will continue to rise Hanoi Grand Plaza (45,000 sm, 2011) Crowne Plaza (17,000 sm, 2011) Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower (98,000 sm, 2011) In the CBD: little change in supply, the achieved office rents will remain stable Long-term leases in premium office space in the west is becoming a better option for companies with long-term plans in Hanoi Tenants anticipating various options: to renew the current lease, or to relocate, or opening dual offices
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RETAIL
MARKET SNAPSHOT, Q2 2010 DEPARTMENT STORES Total supply (NLA, sm) New supply (NLA, sm) Vacancy Rate (%) Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) CBD % change (q-o-q) Non-CBD % change (q-o-q) Q2 2009 average asking rents (US$ psm per month) CBD % change (y-o-y) Non-CBD % change (y-o-y) $41.26 -9.17% $53.15 2.59% $38.17 0.03% $57.29 14.58% $18.00 0.00% $37.47 1.82% $54.62 0.00% $38.18 0.00% $65.64 0.00% $18.00 0.00% 37,700 0 24.79% SHOPPING CENTRES 59,566 4,000 1.75% RETAIL LOBBIES 10,310 0 11.64%
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RETAIL
HIGHLIGHTS
Hanois retail sales increased 28.2% y-o-y in H1 2010 The 1st Saigon Co.opmart in Hanoi opened (Ha Dong), 7,500 sm GFA Total supply 3.86% q-o-q, 13.14 % y-o-y
Major announcements and progress: Royal City (200,000 sm GFA) Grand Plaza (18,000 sm GFA) launching rescheduled to Jul 2010 Hang Da Market & Cua Nam Market expected to open in Q3 2010 PICO Mall to launch leasing activities in Q3 2010 F&B & fashion brands continued exposure: F&B: Kichi Kichi; Jollibee, Co.op Bakery (Saigon Co.opmart) Fashion: Everbest (Vincom City Towers) Average Vacancy rate decreased by 2.5% q-o-q. CBD: 0% Non-CBD: 20%, 10% q-o-q (Saigon Co.opmart) Average rental rate: US$45.80 psm per month CBD: US$55.50 psm per month, unchanged from Q1/2010 Non-CBD: US$35.68 psm per month, 1.59% q-o-q
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RETAIL
OUTLOOK
Xuan Thuy Tower A new trend begins: underground retail space Hanoi: Savico Plaza, Royal City, Big C in The Garden HCMC: C.T Plaza, Vincom Centre, etc. More foreign brands will expand to Hanoi following penetration into HCMC market New retail supply developed in non-CBD districts will continue to exceed supply added in the CBD. More real shopping centres in the non-CBD opening over next three Plaza Grand years. Available stock may create competition among new projects The combination of wet market and modern retail space (Hang Da market, Cua Nam market) will create a safer and more hygienic environment as well as a new shopping experience for consumers
Bac Ha Plaza
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
RETAIL
Xuan Thuy Tower Bac Ha Plaza
Grand Plaza
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
SERVICED APARTMENTS
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
SERVICED APARTMENTS
HIGHLIGHTS
Average asking rent: US$ 30.38 psm per month increased 0.4% q-o-q dropped 6.26% y-o-y Internationally managed buildings had no change in asking rents. Self-managed buildings stabilised raising rates by 1.4% q-o-q Average occupancy rate improved to 95%. Internationally managed projects had vacancy rates below 1%. The majority of enquiries this quarter were from European expatriates showing interest in the Truc Bach & West Lake areas
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
SERVICED APARTMENTS
OUTLOOK
Strong demand for serviced apartments has remained stable in the next few quarters. Consumers budgets allocated for accommodation continue to stay strong. New projects expected this year include Charmvits Hanoi Grand Plaza and Crowne Plaza in the Western submarket. In the long term, the market will receive a major supply when mixed-use projects such as Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower come on stream.
Fraser Suites Serviced Apartments
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HOTELS
MARKET SNAPSHOT, Q2 2010 3-STAR Total Supply (rooms) New supply (rooms) Average Room Rate (US$/night) % change (y-o-y) % change (q-o-q) Average Occupancy Rate (%) % change (y-o-y) % change (q-o-q) Revenue per Available Room (US$/night) % change (y-o-y) % change (q-o-q)
Source: CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Note: Hotel 'star' rankings are awarded by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism. Figures are preliminary
4-STAR 1,404 0 $65.74 -1.54% 2.72% 53.09% 14.02% 3.83% $36.58 6.26% 12.51%
5-STAR 2,830 0 $119.90 -20.36% 1.27% 54.28% 3.78% -8.02% $65.25 -8.63% -11.03%
1,882 0 $39.17 4.93% 1.01% 56.20% -2.71% 12.99% $22.42 26.01% -1.73%
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
HOTELS
HIGHLIGHTS Tourist arrivals to Hanoi (in Q2 2010, compared to Q2 2009): Domestic arrivals: 1.85 mil, 33% y-o-y International arrivals: 0.30 mil, 32% y-o-y compared to the countrys level: 1.59 million, 20.26% y-o-y No new supply or official rankings. Total stock of 5-star hotels remained at 2830 rooms. Average occupancy rates: 10.26% y-o-y, in which 4-star hotels experienced the highest growth of 14.02% y-o-y Average daily rate (ADR): US$ 74.94 hotels 20.36% y-o-y. 11.72% y-o-y, ; 5-star
RevPAR: 4.40% y-o-y; 3-star and 4-star posted growths of 26.01% & 6.26% respectively while 5-star saw a decrease by 8.63%. Vietnam Airlines joined SkyTeam (the 1st airline in Southeast Asia joined SkyTeam)
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MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBREs QUARTERLY REPORT | JULY 2010
HOTELS
OUTLOOK The 1,000th year anniversary in October is expected to help improve tourist arrivals, occupancies, ADRs & RevPARs of all hotel subsectors. New supply in H2/2010 will consist of 1,160 rooms; in which Crowne Plaza (386) rooms and Hanoi Grand Plaza (564) are both fitting out with openings expected by the end of the year. Their abilities to fill rooms should serve as a good measure for the capability of the western region to act as a fullfledged business district. More international hoteliers are aggressively pursuing projects in Hanoi (Accor, InterContinental, Marriott) Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower
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NEXT CBRE EVENT.
HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENTS, LESSONS FROM ESLEWHERE IN ASIA FOR VIETNAMS FUTURE STRATERGY
Presented by Mr. Robert McIntosh
Head of CBRE Hotel Division Across the Asia Pacific based in Singapore, over 30 years of real estate experience
Tuesday, July 20, 2010 5:30 pm 7:30 pm Movenpick Hotel 83A Ly Thuong Kiet Stree, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi
Presented in English with Vietnamese simultaneous translation As seats are limited, please RSVP by email to Ms. Hien at [email protected]
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For further information and order details, please contact.
[email protected]THANK YOU!!!
2009 CB Richard Ellis, We obtained the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.
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