V O L . 1 8 • N O . 5 7 | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O .

C O M

House Dems plot last-ditch How Trump The campaign is getting Matt
effort to delay Biden nomination picked Vance real for political donors Wuerker
One Democratic lawmaker is circulating a letter It took a private Here are five things The cartoonist’s
asking the DNC to postpone the virtual roll-call vote meeting, billionaires we learned from daily take on the
expected to be conducted in the coming weeks. and a G6 Gulfstream. Monday’s FEC deadline. world of politics.
PAGE 3 PAGE 5 PAGE 9 PAGE 18

2024 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION

Menendez is
convicted. What
happens next?
If the NJ Democrat were to refuse to step down,
senators could choose to censure or expel him
BY URSULA PERANO
AND ANTHONY ADRAGNA
Bob Menendez is officially a con-
victed felon — and a U.S. senator —
at the same time. If his colleagues
have anything to say about it, that
won’t last long.
After decades in public service,
the longtime New Jersey Democrat
is left with a pending sentence and
a doomed reelection bid. Shortly
after a jury read off the verdict that
he was guilty on all counts, Senate
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer SETH WENIG/AP
FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO ended months of resistance and Sen. Bob Menendez struck a
“This attempted assassination of the 45th and soon to be 47th president of the United States has united called on Menendez to resign, defiant tone after the guilty verdict
our conference in a way that nothing else could have done,” said Republican Rep. Mark Alford of Missouri. joining more than half of Senate on Tuesday, saying: “We will be
Democrats who have already done successful upon appeal. … I have
MENENDEZ on Page 3 never violated my public oath.”

GOP greets Trump as a hero,

Trump shooting investigation
while Dems simmer over Biden gives FBI chance to dig itself out
The moment couldn’t be more different for the two rivals of deep hole with Republicans
BY ADAM WREN, simultaneously fighting to keep the GOP at the same time Dem-
OLIVIA BEAVERS his grip on his own party, put in ocrats’ conversations about re- BY JOSH GERSTEIN the security breach that led to the
AND LISA KASHINSKY the awkward position of calling placing Biden lingered. The attempted assassination of attempted assassination has fallen
MILWAUKEE — By the time he his language in the lead-up to “This attempted assassination former President Donald Trump on the Secret Service.
entered the convention hall the shooting in Pennsylvania a of the 45th and soon to be 47th could help the FBI accomplish “We weren’t involved in the
on Monday night, his right ear “mistake.” president of the United States something it has struggled to do problem. We’re investigating
bandaged, Donald Trump had Between the assassination has united our conference in a for years: repair its poisonous re- what happened afterwards, which
grasped his party’s nomination attempt on Saturday and the way that nothing else could have lationship with Washington’s GOP hopefully will give the bureau the
and introduced a young running opening of the Republican Na- done,” said Rep. Mark Alford of political establishment. chance to do what it does best:
mate who could lay the ground- tional Convention two days later, Missouri. “You don’t hear about It might even curtail the storied throw resources, the best tech-
work for a long-term, populist what was clear was how sharply Never Trumpers anymore.” law enforcement agency’s role as nology and skills at an important
conservative movement in his the shooting and its fallout had There are still Never Trumpers, one of Trump’s favorite punching investigation and solve it and shed
image. reshaped the contest at a critical of course. The former president is bags. light on it,” said a former senior FBI
His opponent, Joe Biden, was point in the race, further rallying REPUBLICANS on Page 12 The FBI is leading the investi- official, who was granted anonym-
gation while much of the blame for SHOOTING on Page 10

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House Dems plot Hail Mary to delay vote on Biden

Lawmaker circulates the Democratic National Conven-
tion rules committee is scheduled
letter asking DNC to to meet, when they are expected
postpone virtual roll to vote on setting up the rules and
dates for a virtual roll call vote.
call on nomination That virtual roll call was initially
authorized to address ballot access
BY SARAH FERRIS, problems in Ohio, which had set
ELENA SCHNEIDER its ballot deadline for Aug. 7. But
AND JENNIFER HABERKORN Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed a
Dozens of House Democrats law that moved the date to Aug. 23,
are organizing a plan to speak out one day after the DNC convention
against their own party’s effort to is scheduled to end. But some Dem-
seal President Joe Biden’s nom- ocrats have argued that since the
ination sooner than originally law doesn’t go into effect until Sept.
planned, which they argue stifles 1, Republicans could still move to
the intense ongoing debate about keep the party’s nominee off the
his candidacy, according to a law- ballot, they said.
maker involved in the effort. “The train has left the station, so
A drafted letter, circulated by the only way you can express it is in
Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) an amendment to the [convention]
and obtained by Politico, offers rules [committee] on Friday. But
the first public signal from Demo- you can’t do it through the press,”
crats since the weekend’s attempted said Donna Brazile, the former
assassination on former President chair of the DNC.
Donald Trump that scores of their But Brazile argued that the DNC
own members remain deeply un- did this in good faith, adding that
settled about the future of Biden’s they “made this decision after we’d
candidacy. learned about the nefarious actions
“It’s a really bad move by the [of states], including Ohio, so why
DNC. Somebody thinks it’s a clev- would we put the freedom of the
er way to lock down debate, and I Democratic Party in the hands of
guess by dint of sheer force, achieve a few nefarious actors?”
unity, but it doesn’t work that way,” “The suggestion that the time-
Huffman said in an interview. He line for the virtual roll call has been
declined to confirm the existence accelerated is false,” DNC Chair
of a letter. Jaime Harrison said in a statement.
The missive from this group of “The timeline for the virtual roll
Democrats does not specifical- call process remains on schedule
ly call for Biden to leave the race and unchanged from when the DNC
— and, in fact, specifically states made that decision in May.”
that it represents a “spectrum” of SUSAN WALSH/AP It’s unclear whether the letter
views. Even so, many Democrats The letter from a group of Democrats does not specifically call for President Joe Biden to leave the race — just will prompt more Democrats to
who have been privately pleading that it represents a “spectrum” of views — but the push for a new nominee has returned to public view. come forward with their concerns
for more of their colleagues to about Biden’s electability — rather
call on Biden to end his campaign than their concerns about the party
saw this as a potentially watershed ocrats privately said they hoped month. It insists that there is “no the Democratic ticket through an nomination process.
moment after weeks of mostly pri- would push their leaders, such as legal justification for this extraor- unnecessary and unprecedent- “It felt like the dam was about
vate discussions about the party’s House Minority Leader Hakeem dinary and unprecedented action ed ‘virtual roll call’ in the days to break” before Saturday night,
dilemma. Jeffries or former Speaker Nancy which would effectively accelerate ahead is a terrible idea,” the letter said one Democratic lawmaker
The push for a new nominee — Pelosi, to take more decisive action the nomination process by nearly continued. with concerns about Biden, who
which had been effectively frozen themselves. a month.” “It could deeply undermine the was granted anonymity to discuss
by last weekend’s shooting — has A draft of the letter, which was It goes on to suggest that some of morale and unity of Democrats the effort. “Everybody appropri-
returned to public view, and House first reported by The New York the signatories have called for Biden — from delegates, volunteers, ately took a step back, the pressure
Democrats now appear to be seri- Times, urges DNC members against to step aside and others haven’t, but grassroots organizers and donors valve was somewhat released. We
ously organizing for the first time. holding a virtual roll call, instead “all of us, however, agree that sti- to ordinary voters — at the worst all knew it would be just days before
There’s also a clear deadline to of the customary timing during the fling debate and prematurely shut- possible time.” that energy would return.”
take action that multiple Dem- convention in Chicago later next ting down any possible change in The move comes two days before

Menendez’s conviction opens floodgates to calls to resign

MENENDEZ from Page 1 a fair trial and was found guilty been Menendez’s most vocal an- Kim said, re-upping his calls for the Currently, no Senate Democratic
so. And at least one Democrat- of serious crimes by a jury of his tagonist in the Senate, did not senator to step down. Caucus rules would prohibit him
ic senator is openly considering peers,” Cortez Masto said. “He directly answer a question last If Menendez were to step down, from accessing classified briefings.
expulsion. should resign immediately and week on whether he would push New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Fetterman has a bill that would
More than a dozen of Menendez’s give the people of New Jersey the for censure or other resolutions whose wife also briefly ran for prohibit Menendez and senators
Senate colleagues had resisted call- opportunity for new leadership.” against the New Jersey senator if Menendez’s seat, would be tasked convicted of similar crimes from
ing for him to step down, with many Additionally, the bipartisan he were found guilty. with appointing a successor. He accessing classified information
resolved to allow the New Jersey- Senate Ethics Committee said “Regardless, I’m getting his could appoint Kim, allowing the and briefings — but it has not seen
an his due process. Now that he’s in a statement it would complete parking space,” Fetterman quipped. congressman to run as an incum- movement on the floor.
convicted, even the most reserved its investigation into Menendez Menendez, for his part, struck bent, or he could choose another Expulsion, if Senate Demo-
Senate Democrats are hardly eager “promptly” and “consider the full a defiant tone in a statement after placeholder. In a statement after crats took that step, is rare. Such
to serve aside a convicted felon, range of disciplinary actions” for the verdict Tuesday: “We will be the verdict, Murphy said he would a resolution would have to clear a
even if it’s only for the remainder the convicted senator. successful upon appeal. … I have make “a temporary appointment” two-thirds threshold in a full Sen-
of the term. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who never violated my public oath.” for the Senate seat if Menendez’s ate vote. That means a handful of
In addition to Schumer, Sens. had not yet called on Menendez to Menendez is running for reelec- seat becomes vacant. Republicans would be required to
Laphonza Butler of California, resign, told reporters prior to the tion as an independent but was al- There are some automatic con- vote alongside Democrats. Cur-
Catherine Cortez Masto of Neva- verdict he thought that if Menen- ready seen as a long-shot candidate sequences for Menendez if he rently, the only GOP senators to
da, Tina Smith of Minnesota, Jack dez’s charges were proved true, prior to his conviction. Rep. Andy were to stick around. He would call on Menendez to step aside are
Reed and and Sheldon Whitehouse they would be “fatal to his ability Kim won the Democratic nomina- be per m a nent ly ba r red f rom Minority Whip John Thune and
of Rhode Island, and Jeff Merkley to serve.” tion in the New Jersey Senate race. holding any leadership positions, Josh Hawley of Missouri.
and Ron Wyden of Oregon, along If Menendez were to refuse to Kim in a statement after the including on committees. He had Notably, two other Democratic
with Arizona Senate candidate step down, however, senators conviction called it “a sad and already stepped down as chair Latino senators — Alex Padilla of
Rep. Ruben Gallego, all called on could choose to censure or expel somber day for New Jersey and our of the Senate Foreign Relations California and Ben Ray Luján of
Menendez to step down Tuesday. him — a step vulnerable incum- country.” Committee following his indict- New Mexico — have not joined calls
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and bent Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada “Our public servants should ment last year. for Menendez to step aside.
others repeated their calls for Me- called for Tuesday if Menendez work for the people, and today we There would also be increased
nendez to resign. wouldn’t resign. Sen. John Fet- saw the people judge Senator Me- questions and scrutiny over his Anthony Adragna contributed to
“Senator Menendez received terman of Pennsylvania, who’s nendez as guilty and unfit to serve,” access to classified information. this report.
 4 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

FORTY SIX
A daily diary of the Biden presidency

Biden defends ‘pretty damn good’ the next administration,” Biden

mental acuity in testy interview said.
President Joe Biden dismissed Still, he couldn’t resist
mounting concerns within his nodding briefly toward Vance’s
party over his age and ability to past harsh criticism of his new
run for reelection, insisting in running mate, urging Holt to “see
an interview Monday that he is what he said about Trump.”
showing Americans that he has Biden also criticized the
“command of all my faculties.” dismissal of a criminal
“I’m old,” he told NBC News’ case against Trump over
Lester Holt in a sit-down that his handling of classified
at times grew combative. “But documents, tracing the decision
I’m only three years older than to the Supreme Court’s recent
[Donald] Trump, number one. extension of immunity for
And number two, my mental certain presidential acts, and a
acuity has been pretty damn concurring opinion authored by
good.” Justice Clarence Thomas that
The roughly 20-minute he said set the stage for such an
session, which NBC said was outcome.
aired unedited and in full, “The basis upon which the case
marked Biden’s second TV was thrown out I find specious,
interview in the past 10 days, because I don’t agree with what
as the president tries to allay Clarence Thomas’s dissent and/
worries about his fitness or the Supreme Court decision on
that were raised by a halting, immunity,” he said.
disastrous debate performance Pressed, though, on whether
late last month. those setbacks would dent his
Since then, more than a dozen case against Trump as unfit for
Democratic lawmakers have office, Biden insisted it wouldn’t
called for Biden to drop out, change his approach.
with some worrying that he no “I can talk about what I think is
longer has a path to victory in appropriate,” he said. “I think the
November. justices that he appointed have in
But Biden on Monday fact been the most conservative
expressed visible frustration and, I would argue, if you
with the ongoing scrutiny of check surveyed constitutional
his candidacy, arguing that he’s scholarship, they seem out of
proven during his term and in touch with what the founders
the days since the debate that he SUSAN WALSH/AP intended.”
remains up for the job.
“What I’m doing is going Viva Las Vegas For Biden, it was one of the few
subjects during the tense sitdown
out and demonstrating to the President Joe Biden greets people after arriving at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas on Monday. that he appeared to feel was
American people that I’m in Biden spoke at the NAACP’s 115th National Conference on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, was scheduled to appropriate to be asked about.
command of all my faculties, that speak to Latino leaders at the UnidosUS Annual Conference, also in Las Vegas. “Sometime, come and talk
I don’t need notes, I don’t need to me about what we should be
teleprompters. I can go out and talking about,” Biden said at the
answer any questions at all,” he end of the interview. “Okay? The
said. issues.”
Biden flatly ruled out any that he risks damaging his for Biden to make a decision. unscripted events, repeatedly — Adam Cancryn
idea that he’d rethink his legacy by continuing on or the “The job’s not finished,” he pushed back on the questions
decision to stay in the race, public comments from senior said. “Fourteen million people about his abilities, complaining Kamala Harris has
waving away arguments Democrats that they’re waiting voted for me to be the nominee that Trump had not received any called J.D. Vance
in the Democratic Party, okay? I kind of similar attention. Vice President Kamala Harris
listen to them.” “Why don’t you guys ever talk called Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio)
Biden also maintained that the about the 28 lies he told,” Biden and left a message to congratulate
race remains just as winnable said, referencing Trump’s debate him on being chosen as former
as before the debate, telling performance. “Where are you on President Donald Trump’s
Holt that polling shows “there’s this? Why doesn’t the press ever running mate, a Biden campaign
no wide gap between us. It’s talk about that?” official said.
essentially a toss-up race.” Biden at other points sought to The official added that Harris
Goli Sheikholeslami As for whether Biden is at risk turn the focus toward Trump on expressed “her hope that the two
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER of suffering another meltdown his own, resuming his attacks on can meet in the vice presidential
similar to what voters saw on the GOP after a brief pause in the debate proposed by CBS News.”
2024 Publishing Calendar John F. Harris
GLOBAL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF the debate stage, Biden offered
a simple retort: “I don’t plan on
campaign following Saturday’s
assassination attempt. He
Harris and Vance are expected
to face off in a debate later this
NEWSPAPER STAFF having another performance on dismissed suggestions he should summer. The Biden campaign
1000 Wilson
BILL KUCHMAN Boulevard
NEWSPAPER EDITOR • 8th Floor that level.” scale back his characterization of agreed to a CBS-hosted debate for
SUSHANT SAGAR COPY DESK CHIEF MATT WUERKER EDITORIAL CARTOONIST Biden during the interview Trump as a threat to democracy, either July 23 or August 13. The
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EDITORS VA • 22209 • (703)
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occasionally trailed off or and tried to draw a distinction Trump campaign hasn’t rejected
CONGRESSIONAL STAFF changed subjects mid-sentence, between his rhetoric and an the invitation but instead
ELANA SCHOR DEPUTY MANAGING EDITOR FOR CONGRESS moments that are not likely to do atmosphere of “viciousness” on accepted a Fox News invite for
JANUARY FEBRUARY
KATE IRBY CONGRESS EDITOR MARCH APRIL to reassure Democrats who
much the right that he accused Trump the veep faceoff.
S M T WJENNIFER T F SCHOLTES S EDITOR,
S M T W T F S ANTHONY S M ADRAGNA,
T W OLIVIA T BEAVERS,
F S S M TdoubtW TheFcan S mount the forceful of encouraging. “What we know is that
BUDGET AND APPROPRIATIONS JORDAIN CARNEY, DANIELLA DIAZ,
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1 2 1 2campaign
3 4 5 necessary
6 to beat the “It matters whether or not you Donald Trump wants an
TYLER WEYANT DEPUTY CONGRESS EDITOR CAITLIN EMMA, URSULA PERANO,
7 8KYLE 9 CHENEY
10 11SENIOR 12 13 4
LEGAL AFFAIRS 5 REPORTER
6 7 8 9 KATHERINE
10 3 TULLY-McMANUS,
4 5 6 7 NICHOLAS
8 9 WU7 8 9former
10 11 president.
12 13 accept the outcome of elections, enabler. He doesn’t want a
14 SARAH
15 16 FERRIS
17 18SENIOR 19 CONGRESSIONAL
20 11 12 REPORTER 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 REPORTERS
12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 Asked
17 18 19whether
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21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23with
24 former
25 26 27President Barack for example, talk about how want another Mike Pence, and
28 29 30 31 For25corrections,
26 27 email 28 [email protected].
29 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 29 30Obama recently, Biden said they you’re going to deal with the I think that is clear,” Harris
For other questions or circulation issues, email [email protected].
31 hadn’t talked in “a couple weeks” border instead of talking about told Politico of Trump’s vice
— but then struggled to recall people being vermin,” Biden said. president search last month.
MAY POLITICO serves the United States SenateJUNE JULY whether that conversation had
AUGUST “That’s the kind of language that “The litmus test is, are they
and JULY PUBLISHING SCHEDULE
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House of Representatives, the White House
T offices
F ofSthe executive
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M Cabinet
T W T F S S M T W T F S
happened after the debate.
S M T W T F S
is inflammatory.” going to be absolutely loyal to
departments
1 and 2 federal
3 agencies,
4 the Supreme Court, 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
“I don’t
1 2
think—
3
I may have, I He also seized on Trump’s Trump over country or their
5
lobbyists and special interest groups, the media, airline and rail
6 passengers,
7 8 paid 9 subscribers
10 11and select 2 nonpaid
3 recipients.
4 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6
don’t
7
think
8
so,” he said.
9 10
selection earlier Monday of oath of office, or, frankly, the
12 13 Reproduction
14 15 of 16this publication
17 18 in whole 9 or in10part 11
is prohibited
12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Biden also declined to open
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Sen. J.D. Vance as his vice American people?”
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 3his4travel
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 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O | 5

A private meeting, billionaires and a G6 Gulfstream:

The backstory on how Trump picked Vance for VP
Trump’s selection
is now the heir
apparent to his
MAGA movement
BY ALEX ISENSTADT
Two days before Donald Trump
named J.D. Vance as his running
mate, the Ohio senator boarded
real estate titan Steve Witkoff’s
G6 Gulfstream jet. His destination:
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm
Beach, Florida.
The surreptitious meeting, which
has not previously been reported,
helped to solidify Trump’s decision
to pick the 39-year-old freshman
senator as his running mate. Trump
had spoken with North Dakota Gov.
Doug Burgum and Florida Sen.
Marco Rubio, the other two vice
presidential contenders, earlier in
the week. To those familiar with
his deliberations, it was clear he
had been the most impressed with
Vance.
For Trump, the pick represent-
ed the selection of an heir appar-
ent to his MAGA movement — and
the latest stage of a relationship
that evolved from Trump’s initial
skepticism of Vance, to his full-on
embrace of a pol he now views as a
fierce loyalist.
The relationship between the
two men, detailed by more than a FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO
half-dozen people close to both of Vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance, who once called Donald Trump “noxious,” and said he “loathed” him, wooed the former president by defending
them, began in 2021, when Vance him enthusiastically on hostile media platforms and building a friendship with Donald Trump Jr., who lobbied for Vance instead of Gov. Doug Burgum.
was running for Senate. Vance,
who famously documented his
blue-collar upbringing in “Hill- but he gets it now, and I have seen Trump advisers later described thinking. But by late January, as clear he supported other prospects,
billy Elegy,” had savaged Trump, that in spades,” Trump wrote — the East Palestine visit as a crit- Trump closed in on becoming the including Burgum. The Murdoch
whom he called “noxious” and vaulted Vance to a primary win. But ical moment in his presidential presumptive Republican nominee, family-owned New York Post and
said he “loathed,” during the 2016 they still weren’t personally close, campaign. Trump’s launch had Vance and his team were hearing Wall Street Journal published sep-
campaign. according to people familiar with been rocky. His November 2022 the rumors from enough people arate editorials endorsing Burgum
Vance’s effort to win over Trump their relationship. That came later, announcement was so tepid that, that they decided he needed a plan for the position.
involved forging a relationship with with what Vance did for Trump in rather than scare competitors off, to persuade Trump to select him. And then there was Kellyanne
Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. — return. they sensed an opening. Then, soon So they developed a two-pronged Conway. Trump’s 2016 campaign
who lobbied for him, and against The day after the primary — after, Trump dined with the rapper blueprint. First, he would regu- manager and a former White House
Burgum, with his father — a crucial when many Republicans were still and Nazi sympathizer Ye, formerly larly appear on TV networks not counselor, Conway repeatedly con-
visit to East Palestine, Ohio, and an leery of Trump, casting for alterna- Kanye West, and Holocaust denier seen as favorable to Trump, using veyed to the ex-president that she
aggressive effort to overcome in- tive candidates for president — the Nicholas Fuentes, and he posted on the interviews to defend the for- was against Vance.
ternal opposition from major Re- Vance team, which shared several social media that he supported ter- mer president. Second, he would But Vance overcame the oppo-
publican donors and Rupert Mur- strategists with Trump’s operation, minating the Constitution — both work aggressively to raise money sition. The former president, ac-
doch-affiliated news outlets. And it back-channeled to Trump that the of which drew intense criticism. for him. cording to a person familiar with
involved a campaign by Vance and Ohio Republican was eager to sup- Trump’s trip to the hardscrabble The move was aimed at address- his thinking, tired of the arrows
his advisers to convince Trump that port a Trump 2024 comeback bid, northeastern Ohio village served to ing one of the main criticisms of being slung at Vance. And it didn’t
Vance could both raise money for if he ran, and would do whatever remind Republicans of the populist Vance: That he was a subpar fund- hurt Vance that he had such strong
his presidential run and forcefully he could to help. image he had cultivated as presi- raiser. Many of the party’s main- Trump allies in his corner — a group
defend him on TV. Vance followed through, writing dent, helping stanch the bleeding. stream donors regarded Vance — that included Trump Jr., Turning
By the time he ran for Senate in in a Jan. 31, 2023 Wall Street Journal Starting then, and throughout a political newcomer with ties to Point USA founder Charlie Kirk
2021, Vance was firmly in the for- op-ed that Trump has his “support the presidential primary, Vance Silicon Valley — as an anti-estab- and Tucker Carlson. Vance’s al-
mer president’s camp — or at least in 2024 because I know he won’t became a regular on Trump’s call lishment outsider who broke with lies moved aggressively to counter
understood the value of a Trump recklessly send Americans to fight log, and he emerged as a fierce them on foreign policy and trade opposition, framing Vance’s critics
endorsement. In the spring of 2021, overseas.” The op-ed, which came defender of the former president. issues. So Vance, a former ven- as being part of something Trump
tech billionaire and Vance ally Peter just weeks after Vance was sworn When reporters stopped Vance in a ture capitalist, tapped his Silicon and Vance shared a hatred for: the
Thiel brokered a meeting between into office, made him one of the first Senate hallway and questioned him Valley connections to organize a establishment.
Trump and Vance. During the Republican lawmakers to endorse about whether, in saying immi- major fundraiser hosted by inves- Last week, as the search for
meeting, which was also attend- Trump. Some other figures once grants were “poisoning the blood” tor David Sacks. He also hit the a running mate neared a close,
ed by Thiel and Trump Jr., Vance regarded as vice presidential con- of the country, Trump was using phones, dialing up donors on call Trump Jr. presented his father with
highlighted his and Trump’s shared tenders — like Trump White House Adolf Hitler-like rhetoric, Vance lists supplied by the cash-hungry an article from the Trump-friend-
populist viewpoints. In the com- press secretary-turned-Arkansas pushed back. Trump campaign. ly Breitbart News that he knew the
ing months, Vance closely aligned Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders — “You guys need to wake up,” Vance’s opposition from the do- former president would hate. The
himself with Trump and built a took months to announce their Vance said. “It’s an absurd ques- nor community, however, present- younger Trump had, by now, been
relationship with Trump Jr. support. tion. It’s an absurd framing.” ed a challenge in the under-the-ra- public in his support for Vance and
Trump, meanwhile, told close Trump took notice of Vance’s Video of the exchange made the dar race for the vice presidential had spoken negatively about Rubio
allies he was impressed by Vance — support — and his polished TV ap- rounds among conservative figures slot. Other contenders, like Bur- and Burgum.
complimenting him on everything pearances. The following month, on social media — and eventually gum, Rubio and South Carolina This article, he suggested to his
from his debate performances to his when Vance helped organize a trip made its way to Trump. Trump — Sen. Tim Scott, had deep rela- father, was an indication that the
physical appearance and his golf Trump took to the site of a train de- always on the lookout for defenders tionships with mainstream donors North Dakota governor was sim-
swing. The image-focused Trump railment in East Palestine, Ohio, who defy the media — told allies he who were eager to undercut Vance. ply a mainstream Republican Party
saw Vance as telegenic and a pow- Trump and his son watched Vance loved it. Republican megadonor Ken Grif- figure who was more aligned with
erful communicator. do a live interview on Fox News. By now the vice presidential fin’s team conveyed to Trump that the old guard of the GOP than his
Ultimately, Trump’s endorse- “This guy is turning out to be rumors were beginning to swirl. they didn’t want the Ohio senator. populist movement.
ment — “Like some others, J.D. fucking incredible,” Trump said Vance himself didn’t initially take Murdoch, the former News Corp. The article’s title?
Vance may have said some not so to his son and the group of aides the prospect seriously, according chief executive, was also weigh- “Karl Rove endorses Doug Bur-
great things about me in the past, on the plane with them. to two people familiar with his ing in with Trump and making it gum for vice president.”
6 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

In J.D. Vance, Trump is going all in on populism

Ex-POTUS picked the
most ideological and
pugilistic Republican
on his short list for VP
BY NATALIE ALLISON,
ALEX ISENSTADT,
MERIDITH McGRAW,
OLIVIA BEAVERS
AND KIMBERLY LEONARD
Donald Trump had lined up safer
choices. Instead, he picked a flame-
thrower as a running mate.
In J.D. Vance, Trump selected the
most ideological, pugilistic Repub-
lican on his short list for vice pres-
ident — someone who could help
him attract blue-collar and Rust
Belt voters, but whose comments
on abortion could alienate some
moderate suburbanites and women.
Trump placed a bet on both the
appeal of their shared populism
and the promise of generational
change — elevating a 39-year-old
freshman senator from Ohio as the
MAGA movement’s heir apparent.
The selection will draw a contrast
not only with the 81-year-old Biden,
whose age has become a major point
of weakness in his campaign, but
also Vice President Kamala Harris,
who — while young in Washington
terms — is a full two decades older
than Vance.
Vance brings Trump a lot: His
youth, his TV savvy and his abili-
ty to tap into a Silicon Valley donor FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO
base that has, until recently, been As a running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance brings former President Donald Trump youth, his TV savvy and his ability to tap into a Silicon Valley donor base. But
wary of the Republican Party. But Republicans say most important are the connections they believe he can make with blue-collar voters in some of the most coveted swing states.
most important, Republicans say,
are the connections they believe he
can make with blue-collar voters expressed reservations about abor- ing the notion “preposterous” and support the former president. who said he disagrees with Vance
in some of the most coveted swing tion exceptions for rape and incest noting that Vance as a child was a In 2017, Vance wrote in a social on some issues — such as the sen-
states. and defended a law in Texas that victim of domestic abuse. media post he later deleted, “In 4 ator’s opposition to Ukraine aid
“It makes sure that the Blue Wall did not include any. Democrats pounced on the se- years, I hope people remember that — offered relatively positive com-
stays flattened,” said Charlie Ge- “It’s not whether a woman should lection Monday, warning that it was those of us who empathized ments about the decision.
row, a Pennsylvania-based Repub- be forced to bring a child to term, it’s Vance would back efforts to ban with Trump’s voters who fought “What he’s done is he has really
lican strategist. “The sweep across whether a child should be allowed to abortion and pointing to his prior him most aggressively.” articulated, basically, the Donald
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and live, even though the circumstanc- support for elements of The Heri- But after winning Trump’s en- Trump platform and has done it
Wisconsin is now solid.” es of that child’s birth are somehow tage Foundation’s Project 2025 pro- dorsement in his Senate race, Vance in a very articulate way,” DeWine
Trump himself noted the appeal inconvenient or a problem to the so- posal that Democrats have framed not only became a vocal defender said from the Milwaukee conven-
he thought Vance might have in the ciety,” Vance said at the time. as a blueprint for a second Trump of the former president in Wash- tion hall.
Rust Belt and upper Midwest when Vance later said he supports term. Trump has sought to distance ington, but also embraced many of “He’s younger. He has very dif-
he announced his selection on Truth “reasonable exceptions.” He was himself from the plan. his priorities, including on border ferent life experiences than Pres-
Social, writing that Vance “will be involved in the Republican-led “Vance will do what Mike Pence security, China and Trump’s base- ident Trump does, I think that’s
strongly focused on the people he campaign last year against Ohio’s wouldn’t on January 6; bend over less attacks on the legitimacy of the significant. But if you look at their
fought so brilliantly for, the Amer- constitutional amendment, which backwards to enable Trump and 2020 election. positions, he’s taken someone who
ican Workers and Farmers in Penn- ultimately passed and guaranteed his extreme MAGA agenda, even “He’s very cerebral,” said Sen. is close to him.”
sylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, I n choosi ng Va nce, T r u mp
Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond.” passed over less polarizing figures,
Republicans are expecting him to including North Dakota Gov. Doug
become a fixture in the campaign. Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco
Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who “If I had to pick one word to describe J.D., it would probably be Rubio. The latter presented a resi-
chairs the National Republican Sen- ‘sagacious.’ He’s thoughtful, he’s deliberate, he’s calm. He carefully dency challenge. The Constitution
atorial Committee, predicted Vance forbids Electoral College voters
would appeal to “lunch bucket Dem- thinks about his positions and makes sure he can defend them.” from backing a ticket of two can-
ocrats,” meaning the “blue-collar — Sen. John Kennedy didates from their own state, and
parts of our country that are yearn- Rubio would have had to establish
ing for a leader who can understand residency elsewhere. People famil-
the challenges they face.” iar with the conversations in recent
“I have watched him behind the days, granted anonymity to speak
scenes,” Daines said of Vance’s a right to an abortion. In recent if it means breaking the law and no John Kennedy (R-La.). “He’s obvi- about private talks, said they didn’t
two years in the Senate, praising weeks, he has praised Trump’s plan matter the harm to the American ously very well educated. If I had want to risk prolonged potential le-
his colleague as “engaging.” to leave abortion laws to the states, people,” Jen O’Malley Dillon, who to pick one word to describe J.D., gal challenges.
“He’s not afraid to be vocal. … He and said he stood behind Trump’s chairs President Joe Biden’s reelec- it would probably be ‘sagacious.’ And despite eleventh-hour spec-
jumped right in,” he added. support of access to the mifepris- tion campaign, said in a statement. He’s thoughtful, he’s deliberate, ulation in some Republican circles
But comments made in recent tone abortion pill. The selection, in some ways, puts he’s calm. He carefully thinks about on Monday that Trump was going
years by Vance, who converted to But it isn’t just abortion. Vance a bow on Trump’s eight-year trans- his positions and makes sure he can to surprise observers by tapping
Catholicism in 2019, will almost faced criticism during his Senate formation of the Republican Party. defend them.” Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who
certainly be used against him as run after he questioned the prev- Vance’s best-selling memoir Drew Griffin, a former chief of was not on his short list, that was
Democrats work to make a dent alence of divorce, saying “one of “Hillbilly Elegy,” his personal staff for Rep. Bob Latta of Ohio never the case.
into Trump’s lead in swing states. the great tricks” of the “sexual story about the plight of the white who works for Invariant, said Youngkin had not submitted any
On an issue that is one of Repub- revolution” is that people in violent working class, caught the zeitgeist Vance “checks several boxes for vetting materials to Trump’s team,
licans’ top vulnerabilities, Vance and unhappy marriages can “shift of 2016, when Trump cannonballed the Trump campaign in terms of according to a person with knowl-
last year referred to abortion as spouses like they change their un- into the Republican Party. But while loyalty, the ability to sell the ticket, edge of the process.
“murder,” and during his Senate derwear” to attain happiness. his experience growing up poor in his specific appeal to Midwestern
race in 2022 said he would vote for His campaign at the time disput- Kentucky and Ohio helped explain swing states, and his youth.” Lisa Kashinsky and Adam
a national 15-week abortion limit. ed that he was calling for people to the grievances that fueled Trump’s Even Ohio Republican Gov. Mike Cancryn contributed to this
During that same campaign, Vance stay in abusive relationships, call- political rise, he did not always DeWine, at times a Trump critic report.
 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O | 7

Is the GOP ready for the nerdy radicalness of Vance?

Once a Never Trumper, Vance now embodies Senate campaign noted, anger
does not come easily to him, and
the ‘New Right’ that largely aligns with Trump he strains to deliver talking points
in a fiery register. He works hard to
BY IAN WARD regime during World War II; and channel the locker room bellicosity
J.D. Vance’s elevation to the No. 2 something that Vance called his that is Trump’s default rhetorical
spot on the Republican ticket marks “global critique of the political style, but he has not mastered the
the culmination of two remarkable sciences,” which had to do with Trumpian tone. (Witness his bi-
transformations — one personal to academic sociology and its undue zarre crusade against “childless
Vance, and one that has swept over focus on gross domestic product as cat ladies.”) More often than not,
the American right as a whole. a metric of social progress. he ends up sounding like a high
On the personal front, Vance’s Alongside key figures on the school thespian trying to wring
selection represents the completion New Right — including its pri- every last ounce of emotion out of
of the “Hillbilly Elegy” author’s mary benefactor, Peter Thiel, and an overwrought monologue.
much-remarked-upon evolution its leading spokesperson, Tucker Instead, Vance excels in adver-
from liberal darling and stal- Carlson — Vance has gone out of sarial television interviews, where
wart Never Trumper to die-hard his way to inject their worldview he smugly spars with incredu-
MAGA loyalist and heir apparent into the conservative mainstream. lous anchors, or in smaller-scale
to Trump’s political dynasty. The In the Senate, he has championed discussions where he feels more
credibility of this conversion has a distinctive New Right legisla- at liberty to flex his dorky side.
been hotly debated on the left and tive agenda, rejecting the GOP’s This shouldn’t come as much of
right, and lingering questions about traditional fusion of free-market a surprise. Vance first honed his
those past criticisms of Trump are fundamentalism, small-govern- public-facing persona via TED
likely to hang over the Trump- ment libertarianism and foreign FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO Talks and fireside chats at the
Vance ticket until November. policy interventionism in favor of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance has many of the attributes of the “New Right”: Young Aspen Ideas Festival; his natural
But the other transformation a program that combines some el- — just 39 years old — Catholic, cerebral, contemptuous of elites and habitat is the academic colloqui-
signaled by Vance’s ascension — ements of economic populism with comfortable with the language of conservative counter-revolution. um rather than the CPAC speech.
the takeover of the Republican ultra-traditionalist social conser- As he himself wrote in 2020: “I
Party by a once-marginal faction vatism and a more restrained for- am most comfortable engaging
of conservative elites — is no less eign policy. nishing his image as a MAGA mili- has reportedly poured tens of mil- with people around ideas. If you
remarkable. Most important, he has em- tant on television and social media, lions of dollars into conservative can’t read something and debate
Vance — whom I interviewed at braced the New Right’s unifying but his more cerebral side will be causes. Vance’s primary political it, I’ve always been a little less
length earlier this year for a profile philosophical creed: that the de- difficult to hide as the campaign patron, Peter Thiel, has vowed to interested.”
in Politico Magazine — entered velopments liberals point to as kicks into high gear. stay out of the 2024 campaign, but I came away from my conver-
the national political scene in 2022 signs of “progress” — an expand- By selecting Vance, Trump has he has close ties to other wealthy sations with him earlier this year
as the leading avatar of the “New ing global economy, accelerating thrust the New Right into the spot- Republican donors, including the thinking that, like him or not,
Right,” a ragtag band of conser- technological innovation and the light. The question now is whether Silicon investor David Sacks and Vance is smarter and more book-
vative intellectuals and activists relaxation of traditional social and Republican voters like what they the Wall Street executive Stephen ish than your average elected of-
that coalesced during the end of the sexual mores — are in fact engines see. Schwarzman. Although most are ficial. Now that he’s a Fox News
Trump presidency. The New Right of civilizational collapse. As Vance Vance’s close ties to the New already supporting Trump, Vance’s star, it’s easy to forget that Vance
is largely aligned with Trump on put it to me when I interviewed him Right entail some clear political addition to the ticket could per- first entered the national spotlight
questions of policy, including his earlier this year, “There’s just this benefits for Trump. suade them to open their wallets as a memoirist who spun personal
embrace of economic nationalism, desperate effort to just argue that First, Vance’s spot on the ticket even wider. travails into political lessons. The
his hard-line opposition to im- everything’s gone well — and, man, shores up Trump’s support with Vance’s most significant dif- problem is that he knows it. “I know
migration, his skepticism of U.S. I just don’t buy it at all.” the small but influential network ficulty may arise from his recep- all the inflation statistics, I read
military involvement abroad and Vance’s closeness with this world of New Right-adjacent activists tion by the rank-and-file Repub- them, I try to understand them,
his escalation of the culture war was on full display in early July at and intellectuals, many of whom lican base. During the run-up to and I think I probably do under-
at home. But its support for this the National Conservatism Confer- had flirted with — if not outright the New Hampshire primary in stand them better than almost any
agenda — grouped for simplicity’s ence in Washington, a big tent an- endorsed — DeSantis during the January, I watched Vance stump U.S. senator,” Vance boasted to me
sake under the heading of “nation- nual gathering for the New Right. In Republican primary. Vance has be- for Trump at a Western-themed at one point.
al conservatism” — is grounded in his keynote address, Vance praised come extremely popular among this bar in a purple town in southern Yet to his credit, Vance is also
more obscure intellectual sources: the event as “the place of intellec- set: He attends all the right confer- New Hampshire. It was Vance’s aware of the fact that his intellec-
Catholic-inflected “post-liberal- tual leadership and the American ences, writes for the buzziest pub- first-ever formal appearance for tualism could be a liability — that
ism,” conservative populism and conservative movement,” and the lications and reads all the hottest Trump on the campaign trail, and many voters like the smartest per-
localism, and various strands of audience rewarded him with two conservative authors. In April 2023, he did his best to strike a Trumpian son on the ticket about as much as
neoreactionary thought that flour- standing ovations. In the confer- the editors of Compact, a boutique tone, cracking jokes about Hunter middle-schoolers like the smartest
ish online. ence hall outside, young conserva- online magazine that has become Biden’s drug use and fulminating kid in the class.
Since abandoning his posture tives handed out T-shirts embla- something like an in-house publi- about the invasion at the southern “When I talked to New Right
as a Never Trumper, Vance has zoned with Vance’s face on Mount cation for populist-minded conser- border. After Vance’s remarks, I intellectuals or think-tank types,
risen to prominence as the stan- Rushmore, right next to Trump and vative intellectuals, praised Vance asked one red-hatted attendee what I always just say, ‘Look, you guys
dard-bearer of this movement in Richard Nixon. as “the way forward for the” GOP. he thought of the performance. care a lot about ideas, and I think
Washington. He embodies many of As recently as two years ago, it By choosing Vance, Trump has sig- “He’s one of the few who’s a true it’s admirable that you care about
the attributes that distinguish the was possible to write off the New naled he tacitly agrees. MAGA senator,” he told me. “He’s ideas, but most people are just not
New Right: He is young, Catholic, Right’s vision as just another minor Vance is also likely to fire up the a future star of the party.” ideological — they sort of react
cerebral, contemptuous of elites intellectual fad, confined to panels young conservative elites who serve But when I asked him whether he to things as they have to because
(while maintaining a solid foot- at obscure conferences and the pag- as the foot soldiers of the MAGA would like to see a Trump-Vance they’re busy doing other things,’”
hold in their rarified world) and es of niche conservative journals. movement in Washington. Among ticket in 2024, he didn’t seem so Vance said during one of our
comfortable with the language of But now, with the movement’s po- this cohort, Vance has attained a enthusiastic. conversations.
conservative counterrevolution. At litical wunderkind headlining the hagiographic status that few elect- “Not yet — it’s too soon,” he told I pointed out that he seemed to
just shy of 40 years old, he would Republican ticket in November, it’s ed Republicans beyond Trump en- me. care a lot about ideas.
also be the first millennial at the clear the New Right is central to the joy. Saurabh Sharma, founder of a I heard similar sentiments from “I absolutely do … and best thing
top of the line of succession. future of the Republican Party. Like nonprofit in Washington that trains others that day. Several attendees about the New Right is that you
I got a glimpse of this side of Trumpism in 2016, the New Right young, MAGA-minded wonks to told me they’d liked what they’ve don’t have that same set of [ideo-
Vance while interviewing him started at the GOP’s outer fringe, work on Capitol Hill, told me he of- seen of Vance on Fox News or on logical] filters that are being ap-
earlier this year. During our con- only to quickly make its way to the ten hears some version of the same Steve Bannon’s podcast, but they plied to every new idea that comes
versations, I didn’t hide my skepti- party’s core. mantra from applicants to his orga- raised general concerns about his along.” But, he said, “like any ide-
cism of his ideas, but he seemed to That rapid ascent marks a signif- nization’s talent network: “Trump age (too young) and experience (too ology, it’s at risk of being captured
enjoy debating them and engaging icant victory for the New Right and activated me, and J.D. Vance is my green). by its own excesses.”
with me on an intellectual level. I its supporters in Washington, but it hero.” Many of these young polit- “Give it a few more years,” an- That, too, will be the challenge
was struck, too, by the breadth creates new and underappreciated icos would willingly go to work other attendee told me. “We’ll see.” for Vance between now and No-
of his knowledge and interests. electoral liabilities for Trump and for Trump regardless of whom he The force of Trump’s endorse- vember: To prove that he’s ideo-
During our interviews — which the GOP. Republican voters have picked as his vice president, but if ment will likely silence any linger- logical enough to woo the party’s
were nominally about his record as had limited exposure to the nerdy Vance ends up in the Naval Obser- ing concerns about Vance’s age or elites without being so dorky that
a legislator — we touched on: the radicalness of the New Right, and vatory, they won’t just be going to inexperience among the MAGA he alienates the party’s base. If
nuances of railway tank cars and when they have caught a glimpse work for the boss; they’ll also be faithful, but the voters in New Vance is going to have any im-
their relevance to rail safety leg- of it — as they did during Blake working alongside their idol. Hampshire were picking up on a pact on the race at all — either to
islation; the benefits and draws of Masters’ “based” Senate cam- Finally, Vance is well connect- real weakness in Vance’s political Trump’s benefit or his detriment
different approaches to collective paign in Arizona in 2022, or Ron ed to deep-pocketed conservatives portfolio. — it will likely depend on that bal-
bargaining; “materialist” versus DeSantis’ meme-filled presiden- through the Rockbridge Network, Despite his reputation as a po- ancing act.
“culturalist” approaches to politi- tial bid — they have not responded a coalition of wealthy, Trump- litical pugilist, Vance does not
cal economy; the collective memory enthusiastically. Vance has largely aligned donors that he helped create excel on the stump. As several of Ian Ward is a reporter at
of French resistance to the Vichy sidestepped this scrutiny by bur- before entering the Senate and that the reporters covering his 2022 Politico.
8 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

Democrats find first attack line against J.D. Vance

VP nominee has given
the Biden campaign
new fuel for its attacks
on Donald Trump
BY ADAM CANCRYN
AND LISA KASHINSKY
Democrats wasted little time
Monday turning Donald Trump’s
new running mate into a line of at-
tack, seeking to portray Ohio Sen.
J.D. Vance as an extremist on abor-
tion rights and an advocate of a far-
right agenda drafted by allies of the
former president.
The Biden campaign went into ac-
tion soon after Trump announced
his pick with a message intended to
steer the focus to the most extreme
elements of the Republican Party
and contrasting Vance with Vice
President Kamala Harris.
“Vance will do what Mike Pence
wouldn’t on January 6; bend over
backwards to enable Trump and
his extreme MAGA agenda, even
if it means breaking the law and no
matter the harm to the American
people,” Jen O’Malley Dillon, who
chairs President Joe Biden’s reelec-
tion campaign, said in a statement.
The campaign coupled its missive
with a press call immediately after
Trump announced his pick to detail
Vance’s vulnerabilities.
But it was on abortion where the
Biden campaign and its aides and
allies have focused much of their
immediate attention — an issue that
Democrats believe is a key vulnera-
bility for Trump and that would be a
critical element in a potential debate
between Vance and Harris. FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO
“A Trump-Vance administration J.D. Vance’s statements on abortion are fodder for Democratic attacks. Vance indicated in 2021 interview that he did not support abortions even in cases
will jeopardize reproductive freedom of rape or incest. The Biden campaign also warned that the Ohio senator has supported elements of The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 proposal.
in all 50 states,” Mini Timmaraju,
president of Reproductive Freedom
for All, said on the Biden campaign objectionable,” said Matt Bennett, among other things, mandated that want to raise taxes on middle-class deeply unpopular when contrast-
call Monday afternoon. “We know co-founder of the center-left group birth control be fully covered as families while pushing more tax ed against Biden’s accomplish-
they have no plans to stop at over- Third Way. “He definitely gives part of preventative care. cuts for the rich.” ments. But the campaign thus far
turning Roe.” Democrats arguments to make that And Democrats were quick to Biden later told reporters in a has struggled to gain traction, with
Timmaraju and others pointed to somebody like [Sens.] Tim Scott or push out Vance’s past abortion brief stop ahead of a campaign polls that showed the president tied
Vance’s characterization of Ohio’s Marco Rubio probably did not.” stances on social media. Rep. Ayan- trip to Nevada on Monday that or trailing for months even before
ballot initiative vote last year en- In an interview with Sean Hann- na Pressley (D-Mass.), a progressive Vance was “a clone of Trump on the late June debate.
shrining abortion rights as a “gut ity on Fox News, Vance said Demo- who has reaffirmed her support for the issues.” Vance’s selection, they hope,
punch.” crats “have completely twisted my Biden in recent days, was among The Biden campaign and its al- represents the opportunity to re-
Trump has sought to neutralize words” on abortion and on a com- those amplifying Vance’s remark lies also sought to highlight Vance’s set the conversation and amplify
abortion as a winning avenue for ment he made years ago suggesting that “two wrongs don’t make a downplaying of Trump’s efforts to scrutiny of Trump’s most contro-
Democrats by saying he supports that people should stay in violent right” when asked in 2021 whether overturn the 2020 election. Vance versial policies.
letting states decide the issue, even “There’s nowhere there’s a more
if it was his Supreme Court justices stark contrast between these two
who enabled the fall of Roe v. Wade competing visions than with this
and saddled the Republican Par- pick,” O’Malley Dillon said on a
ty with a lightning-rod issue that “A Trump-Vance administration will jeopardize reproductive freedom in all press call Monday afternoon, add-
became a major factor in the GOP’s ing that the campaign is seeing vot-
underwhelming performance in the
50 states. We know they have no plans to stop at overturning Roe.” ers start to pay greater attention to
2022 midterms. — Mini Timmaraju President Reproductive Freedom for All the Project 2025 plan it’s sought to
Vance has recently moderated tie to Trump.
his views on the procedure to align Biden aides and allies in the
more closely with Trump’s — includ- aftermath of the Vance pick also
ing saying he supports leaving the began hyping the potential de-
issue to states. marriages. abortion laws should include ex- previously suggested he wouldn’t bate showdown between Vance
But Vance’s past remarks on abor- “Both me and my mom were ceptions for rape and incest. have certified the 2020 election and Harris as a major moment in
tion and women — and his subse- victims of domestic violence,” he Still, abortion is not Democrats’ results, and expressed skepticism the race. Harris has played a cen-
quent attempts to modify them — said. “It’s shameful for them to take sole focus in their opening salvos that Pence, then Trump’s vice pres- tral role in promoting the White
are providing Democrats running a guy of my history and my back- against Vance. The Biden cam- ident, was ever in danger during the House’s position on abortion rights
against Trump with rocket fuel for ground and say what I believe. It’s paign also warned that the Ohio Jan. 6 insurrection. and attacking Trump on the issue,
their strategy on abortion rights. not what I believe. It’s not what I senator has supported elements of The offensive against Vance in addition to the broader threats
Vance indicated in a 2021 interview said. I think it’s evidence of Dem- The Heritage Foundation’s Project comes as the Biden campaign tries that the campaign has warned
that he did not support abortions ocrats’ complete inability to talk 2025 proposal that Democrats have to shift voters’ attention back onto Trump poses to individual free-
even in cases of rape or incest. But about the future.” seized on as a blueprint for a second Trump’s second-term agenda, fol- doms and U.S. democracy.
in his 2022 Senate race, while voicing And he said later in the interview Trump term. Trump has sought to lowing a damaging few weeks fo- “The VP will take it to J.D.
support for South Carolina GOP Sen. that “you have to believe in rea- distance himself from the plan. cused on Biden’s disastrous debate Vance,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren said
Lindsey Graham’s bill that would sonable exceptions because that’s “Here’s the deal about J.D. performance and ongoing concerns on the campaign press call. “She
ban the procedure after 15 weeks of where the people are.” Vance,” Biden said in a post on X about his fitness for office. is strong, she knows what she’s
pregnancy, Vance said he believes Biden’s campaign quickly began shortly after Trump’s pick was Biden officials for much of the talking about and she doesn’t give
in certain exceptions. He has also circulating a list of instances where announced at the Republican Na- campaign have bet that voters an inch — and she has the better end
equated the procedure to “murder.” Vance had expressed support for tional Convention in Milwaukee. will turn on Trump once they learn of the argument.”
Vance’s positions “are going to restricting abortion and opposed “He talks a big game about work- more about his policy platform, Warren added: “I’m looking for-
strike a lot of women as extremely the Affordable Care Act, which has, ing people. But now, he and Trump arguing that its central planks are ward to this debate.”
 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O | 9

The campaign is getting real for political donors

Here are five things we There were a few bright spots
in the filings for Republicans. In
learned from Quarter 2 Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey, a
Federal Election Democrat, still outraised business-
man Dave McCormick, $8 million
Commission reports to $6.7 million, from early April
through the end of June, but Mc-
BY JESSICA PIPER, Cormick’s lower spending allowed
ALLY MUTNICK, him to pull close to even in terms
MADISON FERNANDEZ of cash on hand.
AND ELENA SCHNEIDER In the open-seat race in Mary-
Donald Trump put up a roaring land, popular former GOP Gov.
fundraising quarter, harnessing Larry Hogan was nearly even in
large and small donors to vanquish fundraising with Democrat Ange-
President Joe Biden’s cash advan- la Alsobrooks, who hauled in $5.3
tage — and refilling the coffers of million to Hogan’s $5.1 million.
the national party, too. And in Wisconsin, Democratic
The former president, who fund- Sen. Tammy Baldwin raised $7.5
raised aggressively off his New York million, roughly $236,000 more
hush money trial and conviction, than Republican Eric Hovde, who
is also set to be boosted by sev- is self-funding. But both Democrats
eral new super PACs, attached to had more cash on hand than their
longtime GOP megadonors newly opponents.
jumping into the presidential race,
according to fundraising reports Vulnerable House incumbents
filed with the Federal Election pad their cash reserves
Commission late Monday. SUSAN WALSH/AP As the general election kicks into
But down-ballot, the picture In the second quarter, President Joe Biden’s primary joint fundraising committee, Biden Victory Fund, raised high gear and campaigns prepare
looked rosier for Democrats. Sever- $176 million, including $40 million from small donors, for the campaign, the DNC and state parties, reports show. to drop serious money over the next
al of the party’s Senate candidates few months, the size of their bank
in key races lapped their Republi- accounts matter.
can opponents in fundraising. And raising. Biden’s direct campaign over three months, driven by $10 for the entire cycle — and the joint Some of the most highly watched
a handful of Democratic House fundraising and spending for June million from Citadel founder Ken fundraising reports reveal just how and expensive campaigns on the bat-
challengers in battleground seats won’t be reported until later this Griffin, $10 million from Elliott quickly the party committee has tleground map will be taking place in
raised at least $1 million over the week. Management founder Paul Singer been able to turn things around. 21 crossover districts: places where
second quarter of the year, startling In recent weeks, Biden has trum- and $5 million from Adelson. The Republicans hold seats won by Biden
totals that could force Republicans peted his small-dollar fundraising group’s major Democratic coun- Senate Democrats raised way in 2020, and Democrats represent
to spend more on defense. as evidence Democratic voters are terpart, House Majority PAC, will more than Republicans — again Trump-won districts.
The latest fundraising reports, still backing his beleaguered cam- officially report its June fundraising Democrats massively outraised For the most part, these vulner-
which covered April to June, pro- paign, even after his poor debate later this week, but said it raised $51 Republicans in key Senate races — able incumbents maintained an
vided the deepest look yet at the performance. But Democrats close million between the super PAC and in several of them by a 2:1 margin. edge over their challengers when
megadonors giving to support to the Biden campaign have raised an affiliated nonprofit in the second That financial dominance remains it comes to cash on hand. Of the 16
Trump and Biden, as well as fund- alarms over that grassroots fund- quarter. a lifeline for a Democratic Party Republicans representing a seat that
raising across crucial battleground raising faltering. Last week, projec- staring down a brutal Senate map. Biden won in 2020, 10 had more in
races that could shape control of the tions for small-dollar fundraising Trump’s big fundraising But Republicans have recruited their coffers compared with their
House and Senate next year. showed “massive revisions down- quarter lifted the RNC, too several rich candidates who can Democratic opponent. The five
ward” for the month, after dona- The Republican National Commit- provide a financial cushion for their Democrats running in Trump-won
Trump’s fundraising completely tions for $200 and under slowed tee significantly lagged its Demo- campaigns — quickly winnowing districts all had vastly larger cash
took off during his trial significantly after an initial bump cratic counterpart in available cash that gap. on hand amounts than their GOP
For much of the cycle, Trump tied to the debate. earlier this year. But it appears to In Montana, perhaps the tough- counterparts — and they outraised
trailed far behind Biden in fund- Earlier this spring, Trump’s be catching up, thanks largely to est seat Democrats are actively them, too. All but one, Rep. Marcy
raising. But that changed during small-dollar bonanza following a joint fundraising committee trying to defend, Sen. Jon Tester Kaptur (D-Ohio), brought in more
the second quarter, the new fil- his felony convictions helped him with Trump that’s attracted some raised $10.6 million over the quar- than $1 million last quarter. (Kaptur
ings show, as his fortunes reversed erase Biden’s financial lead, while deep-pocketed donors. ter compared with $5.3 million for clocked in at $950,000.)
thanks to his New York trial. the president’s team acknowledged Trump 47 Committee, which Republican Tim Sheehy, who is The Republican incumbents who
The former president’s prima- in May that their grassroots mon- divvies up donations to the RNC, personally wealthy and has put $2.5 have less on hand than their chal-
ry digital fundraising committee, ey machine hadn’t yet kicked into Trump’s campaign and leadership million into his own campaign. In lengers were Arizona Rep. Juan Cis-
Trump National Committee, raised high gear. PAC, and dozens of state parties, Ohio, the other seat where a Dem- comani; California Rep. Mike Gar-
$139 million over three months, transferred more than $67 million ocratic incumbent is running for cia; Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon; and
including $69 million from do- Big checks for GOP super PACs to the RNC in the second quarter, reelection in a state Trump won in New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito,
nors giving less than $200, while Some familiar names injected big according to the joint committee’s 2020, Sen. Sherrod Brown brought Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro.
burning $45 million on fundrais- dollars into Republican super PACs latest report. Much of that money in a whopping $12.8 million, while Several Democrats looking to
ing expenses. Another digital-first this quarter — indicating that Re- came from the largest donors: 51 his challenger, businessman Bernie unseat Republicans in Biden-won
committee, Trump Save America, publicans are ready to jump into the donors gave at least $500,000 each Moreno, raised only $4.4 million. districts raised more than $1 million
raised $28 million, including $11.7 election in a serious way. to Trump 47. From each of those Other good stats for Democrats: each in the second-quarter — a sign
million from small donors. America PAC, a pro-Trump super donors, $413,000 went directly to Tester has more than three times of momentum in the home stretch of
The total from the two groups PAC launched in May, reported $8.7 the RNC, accounting for more than the cash on hand that Sheehy had at the election. They are Kirsten En-
combined more than doubled what million raised, including $1 million $21 million it raised in the second the end of June. And Brown’s mas- gel in Arizona; Rudy Salas, George
Trump Save America raised over each from former Jimmy John’s quarter. sive hauls allowed him to spend a Whitesides and Derek Tran in Cal-
the previous quarter, when it was chair James J. Liautaud, Alliance And millions more dollars that whopping $18 million dollars — 10 ifornia; Tony Vargas in Nebraska;
Trump’s only digital fundraising Resource Partners CEO Joe Craft, went through Trump 47 to state times more than Moreno. Sue Altman in New Jersey; former
committee. former Sequoia Capital managing parties later made their way back In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ru- Rep. Mondaire Jones, Josh Riley and
The guilty verdict against Trump Partner Douglas Leone, Valor Eq- to the RNC. The Republican Par- ben Gallego brought in $10.4 mil- Laura Gillen in New York; and Janelle
appears to have been the biggest uity Partners CEO Antonio Gra- ty of Guam, for example, received lion compared with just $4.3 mil- Bynum in Oregon. Pennsylvania
fundraising driver: Among donors cias and a firm linked to Palantir $642,000 from Trump 47 in the lion for Republican Kari Lake, as the Republican Rob Bresnahan was
giving at least $200, the threshold co-founder Joe Lonsdale. The super second quarter — and then trans- pair vie for the seat currently held the only Republican challenger in a
at which committees are required PAC spent $7.7 million through the ferred $621,000 to the RNC, ac- by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Demo- Trump-won seat held by a Democrat
to itemize the donations, Trump end of June, mostly on canvassing. cording to its filing. crat-turned-independent who isn’t to rake in more than $1 million.
National Committee had its best Elon Musk has also been linked to There are a few caveats with seeking reelection. Gallego has over Meanwhile, other challengers
fundraising days on the day he the PAC, although he did not make the big donor money: Much of it three times more cash on hand ($9.2 have some catching up to do. In New
was convicted and the three days any contributions through the end is reserved for the party’s special million) than Lake ($2.8 million). York’s 22nd District, Democrat Joe
after. The June 27 debate was the of June. accounts — such as legal expenses In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Mannion (who spent money in a con-
committee’s fifth-best day among Another new super PAC, Pre- or convention funds — and can’t Jacky Rosen raised $7.6 million to tested primary last month) had just
itemized donors. serve America, got $5 million from go toward expenses such as ad- Republican Sam Brown’s $4 mil- over $300,000 heading into the third
Biden hardly had a bad quar- casino billionaire Miriam Adelson. vertising or voter outreach. The lion. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. quarter, compared with Republican
ter: His primary joint fundraising The PAC has spent little so far, but details of just how much the RNC Elissa Slotkin raised three times Rep. Brandon Williams’ $1.4 million.
committee, Biden Victory Fund, has big plans to boost Trump. has raised, and how much it has in more ($6.5 million) than former Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Vir-
raised $176 million, including $40 It was a big quarter for down-bal- the bank, won’t be available until Republican Rep. Mike Rogers ($2 ginia’s 2nd District had a significant
million from small donors, for the lot super PACs too. The Congres- the committee files its own report million), the heavy favorite in next cash reserve, $2.5 million, compared
campaign, the Democratic National sional Leadership Fund, which is later this week. month’s primary, and had nearly with Democrat Missy Cotter Sma-
Committee and state parties. The affiliated with Republican House But the party had been woefully four times the amount of cash on sal (who also had a contested pri-
group spent $48 million on fund- leadership, raised $68 million behind its Democratic counterparts hand. mary) with under $600,000.
10 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

FBI probes Secret Service handling of Trump security

SHOOTING from Page 1 spond to a request for comment, but
ity to discuss the bureau’s delicate Wray and other officials appear to
relationship with Congress and the have seized on the shooting probe
White House. “We’re not always in as an opportunity for the FBI to put
that situation.” its best foot forward with skepti-
The FBI — which announced cal elements of both the public and
Monday that it gained access to the Congress.
suspected shooter’s phone — has On Sunday afternoon, no fewer
a lot of ground to make up. Less than four senior FBI officials joined
than two months ago, Trump was a telephone briefing for reporters
accusing agents of trying to kill to offer updates on the state of the
him when they searched Mar-a- investigation. Attorney General
Lago in August 2022, carrying out Merrick Garland and Wray opened
a court-issued warrant to retrieve the session and then the officials
classified documents from Trump’s leading the investigation spent
Florida home. an unusually long time, nearly 30
In a May fundraising email, minutes, detailing what investiga-
Trump said President Joe Biden tors have found so far and fielding
was “locked & loaded and ready questions from journalists.
to take me out.” In a social media Deputy Director Paul Abbate ac-
post around the same time, Trump knowledged that the level of trans-
suggested that the Justice Depart- parency is unusual for the bureau.
ment “AUTHORIZED THE FBI TO “This is not typical, but we’re
USE DEADLY (LETHAL) FORCE” leaning far forward here, given the
against him. circumstances, and want to keep
Trump’s comment appeared to everyone well informed,” Abbate
allude to press reports about the told the group.
FBI’s operations plan for the search In a twist, the FBI’s proactive
— a plan which included boilerplate media strategy appears to take
language about when agents could a page from Comey’s playbook.
use force. The FBI, however, inten- The former director broke with
tionally carried out the search when his predecessors by urging more
Trump wasn’t home to avoid any transparency at the agency in a
confrontation and there’s no indi- variety of ways, including around
cation Biden was involved. ongoing investigations in which the
The former president’s denunci- primary suspect had died. Critics
ations of the FBI were just the latest in both parties sometimes accused
installment in a history of Trump- EVAN VUCCI/AP him of sharing too much informa-
FBI animosity that dates back more The FBI says it is still trying to determine the motive of the 20-year-old man who climbed a roof outside the Trump tion, particularly about politically
than seven years to his firing of rally venue on Saturday and opened fire before being shot to death by Secret Service personnel. sensitive investigations.
then-Director James Comey in Comey, who was appointed
2017. The abrupt dismissal jolted by President Barack Obama in
the agency and left many agents and errors and vowed reforms. GOP “They don’t have faith in the cur- the FBI unless it can tie the attack 2013 and fired by Trump in 2017,
staff dismayed. House members often accused the rent FBI leadership to get to the to Biden’s supporters or left-wing declined a request for comment
The acrimony continued through director of failing to acknowledge truth given how they have target- activists. Monday.
Trump’s presidency as he blamed the breadth of the problems and ed President Trump with political However, unlike many of the FBI directors are appointed by
the FBI for the special counsel in- not doing enough to punish those witch hunt after witch hunt at the recent controversies, the FBI has law to 10-year terms in an attempt
vestigation into his campaign’s responsible. behest of Joe Biden. I share these so far found itself not needing to to keep them above politics. Wray’s
dealings with Russia. After Republicans won control concerns.” defend its past actions or inaction. term runs through 2027. In a recent
Trump’s attacks on the bureau of the House in 2022, they formed Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. Officials have said there are no in- interview, he suggested he’d like
intensified after reports from the a subcommittee focused squarely picked up on Gooden’s concerns, dications that the gunman had any to stay in his job if Trump wins, as
Justice Department’s inspector on what they termed the “weapon- urging that a House committee contact with the bureau or other long as the FBI is permitted to abide
general faulted the FBI’s handling ization” of the federal government closely oversee the FBI probe. law enforcement. by its longstanding standards and
of an application for a surveillance — a term that typically signifies the “Given how biased & weaponized “We might be perceived as the to keep investigations apolitical.
warrant for a foreign policy adviser notion that the FBI has been po- the FBI has become in their action’s good guys,” the former FBI official “As long as I think I can continue
on Trump’s 2016 campaign, found liticized by Democrats or Trump over the past decade, I think this said. “I think it probably does bode doing that in a way that adheres to
broader signs that the agency failed opponents. committee would be critical in better for Hill relations, even on the all those rules and norms, it’s what
to adhere to policies involving such It’s not surprising, then, that making sure that Americans have House side.” I’d like to keep doing,” he told NBC
requests and concluded that its of- the FBI faces some skepticism some actual faith in the results of Much of the GOP’s anger toward in April.
ficials violated rules about contacts from Republican lawmakers and this much needed investigation,” the FBI in recent years has been Whether the FBI’s handling of
with the media. One former FBI Trump supporters as it probes the the Trump son wrote. heaped on Wray, even though he’s a the aftermath of the assassination
lawyer pleaded guilty to a felony shooting at the former president’s The FBI says it is still trying Trump appointee and was brought attempt can repair Trump’s own
charge of falsifying an email re- campaign rally Saturday. to determine the motive of the in after the FBI’s “Crossfire Hur- distrust of the FBI is less clear,
lated to a surveillance application. “My constituents are deeply 20-year-old man who climbed a ricane” investigation of the 2016 but the former official who spoke
Republican lawmakers picked concerned with the FBI conduct- roof outside the Trump rally venue Trump presidential campaign had with Politico said there’s reason
up the fight in a series of conten- ing the sole investigation into the on Saturday and opened fire before become public and was taken over to hope.
tious hearings where the man attempted assassination of Presi- he was shot to death by Secret Ser- by special counsel Robert Mueller, “A near-death experience has
Trump picked to replace Comey, dent Trump,” Rep. Lance Gooden vice personnel. Some Trump back- himself a former director of the FBI. different effects on people,” he said.
Christopher Wray, acknowledged (R-Texas) posted Monday on X. ers may remain unsatisfied with An FBI spokesperson did not re- “There’s no more serious thing.”

FBI, DHS warn of possible retaliation for attack on Trump

BY ERIN BANCO No specific targets are men- The warning comes amid what vices in his car as well as his home enforcement and the media. The
AND ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL tioned, but the four-page bulletin authorities had already determined and ordered packages potentially Justice Department has vowed to
U.S. authorities are concerned notes that extremists have con- was a “heightened threat” envi- containing hazardous material over relentlessly crack down on threats
about possible attacks in retalia- ducted or plotted attacks against ronment, with the country deeply the last several months. against election workers and elec-
tion to the attempted assassina- “perceived political or ideological polarized as the Republicans gather Authorities have not yet deter- tions facilities.
tion of Donald Trump, the FBI and opponents,” in the past, DHS and for their nominating convention in mined what motivated Crooks, who Threats across the political spec-
Department of Homeland Security FBI said. Milwaukee and the Democrats pre- was shot and killed by the Secret trum have proliferated. Supporters
said Monday in a rare joint intelli- “The FBI and DHS remain con- pare for theirs in Chicago. Service after he opened fire on the of Trump sent death threats and
gence bulletin. cerned about the potential for “This attack reinforces our as- rally, killing one spectator and crit- envelopes full of white powder to
Violent extremists or others follow-on or retaliatory acts of sessment that election-related tar- ically wounding two others. Manhattan District Attorney Al-
“may attempt follow-on or retal- violence following this attack, gets are under a heightened threat In the lead-up to the November vin Bragg, whose office led the hush
iatory acts of violence” in response particularly given that individuals of attack or other types of disrup- election, federal and state law en- money prosecution against the for-
to the attempted assassination of in some online communities have tive incidents,” the bulletin said. forcement agencies have stepped mer president. Others “swatted”
Trump at a rally over the week- threatened, encouraged, or refer- The agencies said that Thomas up efforts to prevent political Maine Secretary of State Shenna
end in Pennsylvania, the agencies enced acts of violence in response to Matthew Crooks, the 20-year–old violence and lone-wolf attacks Bellows after she found Trump to
said in the bulletin obtained by the attempted assassination,” the shooter in Saturday’s attack at the against elected officials, govern- be ineligible to appear on the state’s
Politico. bulletin said. rally, had improvised explosive de- ment officials, candidates, law 2024 primary ballot.
 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O | 11

What we know about the shooting investigation

How the shooter got
the gun and the Secret
Service head’s regret
at the security lapse
BY JARED MITOVICH
It’s been over three days since a
shooter climbed the roof of an in-
dustrial equipment building and
fired a semi-automatic rifle at Don-
ald Trump on a rally stage about
400 feet away, grazing the former
president’s ear and shocking the
nation. But the investigation into
how such a security breach could
happen, and the shooter’s motive,
remain in their early stages.
Immediately after Trump was
shielded by Secret Service agents
and evacuated from the premis-
es, FBI special agents arrived on
the scene to collect evidence and
respond to the incident — which
is also being investigated as a po-
tential act of domestic terrorism.
On Saturday, FBI Director Chris-
topher Wray said the “full force”
of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office
and national headquarters were
committed to the investigation,
which will include tactical sup-
port, national security resources
and the FBI’s operational technol-
ogy division.
And on Tuesday, members of
Congress were escalating a public
push for information on the events
that transpired at the rally, with
several representatives receiving
security briefings. Rep. Jim Himes EVAN VUCCI/AP
(D-Conn.), the ranking member of People react after the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. While Secret Service personnel immediately protected
the House Intelligence Committee, Trump and killed the shooter in the moments after the attack, criticism has focused on potential lapses in security before the first gunshots rang out.
in a statement called on the FBI to
“share as much information public-
ly as they are able without compro- Findings of the analysis are so far the attack. in Pittsburgh this fall. All three Monday. “And it’s something that
mising their investigation.” unclear. And identifying any hints as to schools expressed their condo- shouldn’t happen again.”
Here’s what we know — and don’t After the shooting, officials dis- Crooks’ motivation has proven dif- lences for Trump and the victims Cheatle, who is in Milwaukee this
know — about the FBI investigation covered one improvised explosive ficult. Authorities have not identi- of the shooting. week to coordinate the security of
into Thomas Matthew Crooks, the device in his home and two in his fied political ideology as a motive “We have been in touch with law the Republican National Conven-
20-year-old would-be assassin who car. Bomb technicians rendered all behind the attack but were inves- enforcement and stand ready to as- tion, said she felt “shock” and then
killed a rallygoer and injured two suspicious devices to be safe and tigating the “sequence of events sist in their investigation,” an RMU “concern” about the shooting, reit-
other attendees. are continuing to evaluate them at and the shooter’s movements pri- spokesperson wrote in a statement erating the Secret Service’s respon-
the FBI’s labs. or to the shooting, collecting and to Politico. sibility for the protection of Trump
How the shooter got the gun A review of Crooks’ shipping his- reviewing evidence, conducting No matter the T ru mp rally and other presidential candidates.
So far, the FBI has made some tory has also raised some eyebrows. interviews, and following up on shooter’s motive, agencies warned She added that the Secret Service
headway on the shooter’s back- In recent months, some packages all leads.” in a bulletin on Monday that violent planned to expedite SWAT support
ground and history. He had no delivered to Crooks were marked The FBI is continuing to collect extremists or others “may attempt for Trump.
identification on him at the time for possibly containing hazardous evidence and said on Monday that follow-on or retaliatory acts of vio- Cheatle has also quickly become
of the shooting, FBI Special Agent the target of action on the Hill,
in Charge Kevin Rojek said previ- which is seeking to conduct its own
ously, but was identified on Sunday investigations into what happened
as the gunman after investigators “A direct line of sight like that to the former president on July 13. She testified before the
ran his DNA to acquire biometric Republican-led House Oversight
confirmation. of the United States should not occur.” Committee on Monday.
The gun that Crooks used in the “Secret Service is not political,”
— DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
shooting was an AR-style rifle pur- Cheatle told ABC News. “Security
chased legally, the FBI said Monday is not political. People’s safety is
in an update on its investigation. not political. And that’s what we’re
On the day of the shooting, Crooks focused on as an agency.”
purchased 50 rounds of ammuni- material, according to an FBI bul- it had interviewed nearly 100 law lence” in response to the attempted Cheatle and other senior admin-
tion from a gun shop in Bethel Park, letin obtained by Politico. enforcement officials, rallygoers assassination. istration officials have also pledged
around 53 miles south. Suspicious packages around the and other witnesses, in addition to to fully cooperate with both Con-
Crooks’ rifle was loaded with a shooter’s location were identified “hundreds” of tips received online. What the Secret Service is saying gress and an independent review
5.56mm cartridge, according to shortly after the shooting, Rojek Rojek said at the briefing that The remarkable sequence of events panel which will probe how the
Rojek. Authorities said they be- said on Saturday, and law enforce- the fact the gunman could fire that allowed a gunman to unim- Secret Service failed to prevent the
lieve the gunman’s weapon was ment’s response to “several suspi- multiple shots was “surprising.” pededly climb a roof with a clear assassination attempt. Department
purchased legally by his father, cious occurrences” will also be a He did not respond to additional view of a Secret Service protectee of Homeland Security Secretary
but Rojek has said investigators do part of the investigation, he said. questions about the circumstances has prompted a wave of scrutiny Alejandro Mayorkas said in a press
not yet know if Crooks took the gun around the shooting itself or the FBI of the federal agency charged with conference Monday that it has not
without his father’s permission. The startling unknowns investigation. protecting political leaders and yet been determined who will lead
about Crooks Crooks lived with his parents their families. While Secret Service the independent review.
Phone records and But much of what may have driven in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, 50 personnel immediately protected “A direct line of sight like that to
suspicious devices Crooks remains unclear. miles south of the location of the Trump and killed the shooter in the the former president of the United
On Monday, the FBI announced Crooks was not known to the FBI Trump rally. He graduated from moments after the attack, criticism States should not occur,” Mayor-
that it had obtained Crooks’ phone, prior to the incident, the bureau Bethel Park High School in 2022, has focused on potential lapses in kas said in an interview with “Good
which it sent to its labs in Quan- said, and he acted alone, according the school said, and then attended security before the first gunshots Morning America” on Monday,
tico, Virginia. There, technicians to the FBI’s investigation so far. But the Community College of Allegh- rang out. adding that the independent review
gained access to Crooks’ phone the bureau is continuing to investi- eny County, according to a college “It was unacceptable,” Secret would make recommendations to
and are continuing to analyze his gate whether Crooks operated with spokesperson. He was planning to Service Director Kimberly Cheat- both the Secret Service and DHS to
electronic devices, the FBI said. any co-conspirators in organizing enroll at Robert Morris University le told ABC News in an interview improve the security of protectees.
12 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

Trump is riding momentum into the GOP convention

REPUBLICANS from Page 1 on the number of lies he told in the
viewed unfavorably by more than debate.”
half the country. And as Republi- Still, if Biden himself was uncer-
cans look ahead to a prospective tain about the shooting’s impact on
second Trump term, some of the the race, Trump allies like Rep. Dan
more traditionalist among them Meuser (R-Pa.) who attended the
are bracing for the same kind of rally in Pennsylvania, had no doubt
political fallout he sparked during that it would.
his first administration, when the “I have people calling me, [say-
GOP lost the White House and both ing] ‘I was unsure before’ — busi-
chambers of Congress. ness people, women business peo-
But not in Milwaukee. Even ple, union people,” Meuser told
ahead of the shooting, Republicans Politico on the convention floor
were reveling in the infighting en- Monday. “They call me saying,
veloping the Democratic Party over ‘We’re convinced, we’re praying
whether Biden is fit to serve anoth- for him. We want him to do a great
er term after his disastrous debate job.’”
performance weeks ago. And that A senior Trump adviser, granted
freak-out — while publicly frozen anonymity to speak candidly, said
— has privately intensified in the Trump came into Milwaukee not
wake of the assassination attempt. looking to throw punches. “Given
“It made Trump harder to beat. the experience of Saturday, he is
And so a lot of people feel the only looking to not only unify the par-
chance we have is with someone ty but unify the nation, and make
new at the top of the ticket,” said sure that Americans understand
Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), one his vision for where the country
of almost 20 federal lawmakers can go,” this person said.
who has publicly called for Biden But while Trump rewrote his ac-
to step aside. “Most of the calls ceptance speech, telling the Wash-
I’ve received are from people ington Examiner that he saw it as “a
who are even more concerned chance to bring the whole country,
about our chances in November FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO even the whole world, together,” his
because of the attempted assas- At the Republican National Convention on Monday, Donald Trump points to party’s new, post-shooting tone
sination and how to some voters, where he was shot and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene takes the stage. “You was not entirely uniform. Trump
Trump will come out looking like don’t hear about Never Trumpers anymore,” said Rep. Mark Alford. wrote on Truth Social that the as-
a hero.” sorted investigations into him were
And adding to Republicans’ “witch hunts,” while the typical-
jubilation on Monday: Judge Ai- son replied, ”probably the begin- national television — is politically ly pugnacious Vivek Ramaswamy
leen Cannon’s dismissal of the ning of the Trump administration,” overpowering. went even further.
case special counsel Jack Smith and said they are “feeling that kind “The terminology ‘clusterfuck’ “The truth is, I think we were
brought against Trump over his of energy now.” seems to consistently come to a hair’s breadth away from a civil
alleged hoarding of classified ma- Democrats, meanwhile, emerged mind,” said one adviser to major war just a few nights ago,” said Ra-
terial — and obstructing the federal from the weekend just as fractured Democratic donors, granted an- maswamy, who is raising his hand
investigation into it. (He still faces as — and perhaps more resigned onymity to discuss private con- for a potential Senate appointment
other cases and will be sentenced in than — before the bullet tore versations. “He’s going to win no after Vance’s selection as Trump’s
September in his New York crim- through Trump’s ear. matter what, so now it’s: How do running mate.
inal trial). The assassination attempt has you limit the damage? Maybe it’s Back inside the hall, Trump
Trump’s string of victories led largely put the public revolt against that we keep all the people on the entered in prime time to a rap-
some Republicans to invoke the Biden on ice. But it has not totally bench so we can run them in 2028.” turous reception. When Linda
divine. As Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) frozen talk by Democrats of remov- The question looming is whether Fornos addressed the audience,
put it in his convention speech: ing Biden from the ticket. Biden is baked in as the candidate, one of the “everyday Americans”
“If you didn’t believe in miracles few in the party believed Trump New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker with Republicans eager to challenge the Trump campaign showcased
before Saturday, you better be be- would win, prompting last ditch opened the door to a new nomi- a slowed-down adversary they al- to speak, the crowd booed when
lieving now.” efforts by Ken Cuccinelli and Sen. nee on Monday, telling CNN that ready know well. she confessed she had voted for
As the GOP convention opened Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to push a roll he would support “whoever our Asked by NBC’s Lester Holt Biden in 2020. Gone was the spec-
here, some Republicans said the call vote on the convention rules nominee is coming out of the con- whether the shooting changed the ulation — once rampant among
party hadn’t been so unified at — which some Trump allies per- vention.” And Rhode Island Sen. trajectory of the race, Biden said “I Republ ica ns — that M ichel le
any point since 2012. And even ceived as a strategy designed to Sheldon Whitehouse told local don’t know.” Obama or some other Democrat
then, some questioned whether embarrass or even block the pre- reporters that he believes Biden’s In an effort to dispel doubts about would parachute into Chicago as
the GOP base was truly excited sumptive nominee. Four years later, status remains an open question, his fitness on his “touch me, poke the Democratic nominee. Instead,
for then-nominee Mitt Romney’s during the full-bloom of Covid, the describing it as “a project that is me, ask me questions” tour, Biden GOP delegates said they are con-
presidential campaign. convention was hardly a convention still being considered between will sit for three interviews this vinced Biden will be the nominee.
“There’s only been a handful of at all. House leadership, Democratic week, including his Monday sit- And that his presence on the tick-
people who might have had differ- “I can tell you everybody has leadership and the president and down with Holt. Biden told him et would pave the way to certain
ences of opinion,” said Rep. Byron an unprecedented level of excite- his team, and I don’t think there’s he regrets calling Trump “an ex- victory in November.
Donalds (R-Fla.), who was floated ment,” Speaker Mike Johnson told an answer for that yet.” istential threat” or telling donors Reince Priebus, Trump’s for-
as an early vice presidential pick. Politico on Thursday, days before To other Democrats, though, last week that it was time to put mer chief of staff, was bullish on
“But that was before Saturday. I the shooting. “It’s like a pep rally the image of Trump as a martyr Trump “in the bullseye.” Trump’s prospects — and the like-
think now we’re unified but the around here. And we’re really ex- — one that is likely to be rein- “It was a mistake to use the lihood that it will be Biden who
goal is not just unifying Republi- cited to get to Milwaukee.” forced throughout the Republican word,” Biden allowed. “I meant Trump beats.
cans. It’s unifying the country.” Asked when was the last time he convention that is being beamed focus on him, focus on what he was “I would certainly take that bet,”
It’s a long way from 2016, when saw this level of excitement, John- into millions of voters’ homes on doing, focus on his policies, focus Priebus told Politico.

Ohio GOP already buzzing about who could replace Sen. Vance
BY OLIVIA BEAVERS pick a replacement until an election is state Sen. Matt Dolan, an heir before he knew about Vance’s sations until after the RNC out
Jockeying has already begun for is held in 2026. to the Cleveland Guardians base- selection. of respect to President Trump
J.D. Vance’s Senate seat in red Ohio, “I’ve certainly thought about it,” ball team. DeWine has supported Some believe it will fall to what- and the new VP candidate,” one
just hours after he was tapped as DeWine told CNN Monday when Dolan, who lost to Vance in the 2022 ever message DeWine wants to send source familiar with the Ohio
former President Donald Trump’s asked about replacing Vance. primary. DeWine is one of the few by making his replacement pick. delegation said.
running mate. It was no slow dribble, either, governors who has not endorsed Still, it is an exciting prospect for Another name to watch is Car-
Allies of Republicans in the with a flurry of names quickly Trump. ambitious lawmakers in the state ey, according to a GOP member,
Buckeye State began floating names cropping up. And Vivek Ramaswamy, the and in the House. who signaled Carey has straddled
of potential replacements for Vance As one Ohio GOP aide put it: “My for mer president ia l hopef u l, The list also includes names be- the line of taking more moderate
even before he first showed his phone’s been blowing up with lit- also put himself forward as a longing to the state’s congressio- votes than some of the other Ohio
face at the GOP convention. If the erally every name that’s run for of- potential candidate. “I would nal delegation like GOP Reps. Dave delegation members, such as Reps.
Trump-Vance ticket wins, Ohio fice in the last decade being tossed strongly consider it,” he said in Joyce, Mike Carey and others. Jim Jordan and Warren David-
Gov. Mike DeWine — who has at around.” a Politico interview when asked “Joyce’s name is being float- son, while also enjoying Trump’s
times clashed with Trump — would One name to watch, however, about the Senate seat, minutes ed, but he is reserving conver- endorsement.
 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | POLITICO | 13

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14 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

Q&A

JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

“I think to some extent, Jill Biden is sort of the chief of staff,” said former Reagan aide Ken Khachigian of the first lady’s role, “helping set the ship right when it has to be done, making things
happen that the president can’t do himself. And it’s just a matter of having somebody to instill confidence and keep the president’s spirits up and make him feel like he can do this.”

‘They don’t want to let it go’:

A Reagan aide on Biden’s inner circle
Ken Khachigian understands why Biden and his closest advisers are trying to hold on to power
BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN stumble as well as how Biden led to considerable Democratic After that first debate, yes, that Biden was a master of the

F
orty years before Joe can try to regain control of his and media flak about his age we were taken aback a little bit. Senate. The Senate is a debating
Biden’s anemic debate own narrative and resist the and health. How seriously did And what happened was we society, and Joe Biden had years
performance, Ronald Democrats trying to push him the campaign take the criticism refocused. Just a few days later, and years of experience debating
Reagan delivered his own wobbly aside. and what was the thinking we had a whistle-stop tour using without notes and being very
appearance on the debate stage, But he also talked about why about how to respond? Harry Truman’s same train car, verbal and everything else, and
sparking widespread concerns it might be very difficult for We took it seriously, but we the Ferdinand Magellan, that he all of a sudden they put him into
about his age, health and ability Biden’s inner circle to advise the knew what the problem was. used in 1948. And instead of the the presidency and glued him to a
to serve another four years. president to step down from the The problem boiled down to mushy campaign speeches that teleprompter.
It was Ken Khachigian, said to Democratic ticket. Khachigian, the debate preparation. He was he was giving, I was assigned I think they’ve taken away
be Reagan’s favorite speechwriter who recently authored the over-prepared. They chose to write a kick-ass speech for his self-confidence to a great
and one of only two campaign book “Behind Closed Doors: the wrong people to prepare Reagan using, for the first time, degree. I saw a few weeks back
aides to accompany Reagan on In the Room with Reagan him in [presidential assistant] Mondale’s name. where he talked to the WNBA
Air Force One throughout his and Nixon,” understands the Dick Darman and [Office of champions from last year — it
1984 reelection race, who played dynamics of internal White Management and Budget President Reagan, of course, was no more than a three-
a key role in beating back the House deliberations as much as Director] David Stockman. was 73 years old at the minute talk in the East Room
criticism. He did so in no small anyone, and he acknowledged the We had mock debates in the time of that debate — and of the White House — and
part by helping the 73-year-old possibility that Biden’s closest Eisenhower Executive Office President Biden is 81. Having they had him talking with a
Reagan — the oldest American aides could be more focused on Building up in Room 450, and I successfully worked through teleprompter, and that could
president at the time — find protecting their own interests witnessed that. Stockman took that experience, what about have been done just with a few
his voice in what ended up as a than those of the party or even too much pleasure in taking on the Biden campaign’s current moments of preparation in the
landslide victory over Walter their beloved president. the role of, as Nancy [Reagan] approach and messaging Oval Office, saying, ‘Here are
Mondale. “Power is an enormous elixir,” said, brutalizing Reagan and took strikes you as effective, and the folks, and here are a couple
So what does he think of he said. away his self-confidence. Plus, what strikes you as ineffective? of names you ought to mention.’
Biden’s current predicament? This interview has been edited they stacked him full of briefing What strikes me as ineffective I think they’ve chained him
In an interview with Politico for length and clarity. books, tried to stuff his brain, is that they’ve got him glued to to a teleprompter all through
Magazine, the now-79-year- which I think they probably did the teleprompter. I call it the the years, and he’s become so
old Khachigian discussed how President Ronald Reagan’s first with Biden in this first debate as tyranny of the teleprompter. accustomed to that he’s lost his
Reagan bounced back from his debate performance in 1984 well. And what I don’t understand is flair for the extemporaneous.
 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O | 15

Since the June 27 debate, the chief of staff, unofficial chief an enormous elixir. whole different world, and it — helping candidates, whether
there’s been an intense focus on of staff, helping set the ship right If Joe Biden loses the spreads out to those around you. they were moderates, liberal,
Biden’s insular inner circle and when it has to be done, making presidency, all these fellows Even if they see him losing conservative, and then all these
the role it has played in stage- things happen that the president around him, they’ll have law a step and think that maybe people he had raised money for
managing the president to keep can’t do himself. And it’s just a practices to go to, or lobbying he shouldn’t be staying in the and helped campaign for and
the signs of the president’s matter of having somebody to practices, and they’ll make presidency, they don’t want to let put them into office, helped get
aging under wraps, as well as instill confidence and keep the money, they’ll write books it go. them patronage, helped get them
the role it may be playing in president’s spirits up and make and they’ll be able to go on the judgeships and everything else,
convincing the president to dig him feel like he can do this. speaking circuit. But as Gov. Based on your own experience and next thing you know, they’re
his heels in. I don’t know if he’s had down Mario Cuomo said, once he left with numerous presidential turning on them. It’s the same
An argument can be made times or feels dispirited, but office, it’s like dying. Your hair campaigns, what’s your best thing for Biden.
that this has affected the I saw in that press conference keeps growing, your fingernails guess for how they view those
party’s ability to hold the Thursday that he had some keep growing, but the phone who are going wobbly on them, From a presidential campaign
White House and it could moments of energy and fight stops ringing. the House members who are practitioner’s standpoint, does
permanently tarnish his legacy. left in him. Maybe part of that One minute you’re in the Oval jumping ship, and the donors the situation seem salvageable
At a time like this, what colors is his family lifting his spirits. I Office, and you’re steps from who are withholding funds? for the president? Does it seem
the thinking of a president’s think his inner circle is probably the president and reporters I’m sure that there’s huge anger like Biden can hang on and ride
inner circle? saying, “Boss, we’ve been are calling you all the time, and massive animosity towards it out to the convention?
They’re not just being through this before. We’ve been power brokers are calling you, those who are jumping ship. I think he can ride it out. I
protective. I think they’re playing think he is riding it out. [Last
a lot of offense as well. Thursday’s] press conference was
I think they’re saying to not the best thing that happened
themselves, “Look, we’re tired of to him in the world, but he
being beaten around, and we’ve “Joe Biden had years and years of experience debating without notes salvaged it. The press conference
come this far, and we’re adamant and being very verbal and everything else, and all of a sudden they turned at the end towards foreign
in terms of what we want to do. policy issues, and again, he
We’ve scratched and fought and put him into the presidency and glued him to a teleprompter.” wasn’t brilliant, but he didn’t
climbed up the greasy pole to — Ken Khachigian Former Reagan aide step on his toes.
win the presidency. We took our If [Biden’s team is] smart,
setbacks in 1988 [Biden’s failed they’re going to start using
presidential run], we took our some hardball tactics. They’re
setbacks in 2016 when we stepped going to start using patronage
away from it and let Hillary take together for all these years, and Hollywood stars are calling you, And I think one of the issues. They’re going to start
a run at it, and we finally won the we’ve fought off these guys. and you’ve got the White House resentments he has or that they talking about judgeships. They’re
presidency, and we’re not going And look at the opposition. The operator that can connect you have collectively, are Obama’s going to start talking about
to let people beat us back right opposition is something we’ve with the world. You’re on Air people. They sort of shoved appointments that some of these
now.” overcome many, many, many Force One, and you’re flying on Biden around when he was vice congressmen and senators are
I think they’re circling the times, and there’s no reason we Marine One and eating in the president, and now they’re out sitting on, that they’ve been
wagons because they feel that can’t do this again.” Executive Mess, and the next there peeing all over Biden and asking the White House to get
they’ve won the hard way to the thing you know, you’re out of the not helping in his direst need through, and they still own the
presidency, and they’re going to At some point does the inner White House and you’re just an when for eight years, Biden was delegates.
stand their ground and not back circle become part of the average schmo. the loyal servant to Obama and to Now, whether or not he can
away. problem? Because at some People don’t understand how the party. make it through the four-year
point, they’re not just debating strong the magnetism of the If you think about Biden in term of the presidency, or
What role do you think Biden’s Biden’s future, they’re debating presidency is. Joe Biden, for those eight years, he was out whether he can even win, that’s
past campaign experience plays their own, right? example, is able to go on Marine there stumping for Democrats all another question, but I think
in shaping their thinking? Here That’s true too, and they might One to Delaware and wake up in over the country. I think about he can make it through the
I’m thinking not just of his past be making a mistake. They might the morning and have a butler this the same way President convention.
defeats but also the comeback be making decisions that don’t present him with a clean suit Nixon did back in the years when
in 2020 after things looked serve the president’s interests, and a cup of coffee. Or be on Air all the people left the sinking Let me ask you a hypothetical
grim in the primary and Biden and maybe they’re serving their Force One and lean over and push ship, because he had done so question. You’re sitting there in
was counted out. own interest, and maybe they’re a button and have this steward much for the party through your office, the phone lights up,
I think he feels that this has clinging on to something that come in and present you with the ’50s and the ’60s, when he and it’s Joe Biden. He asks for
happened before. “I overcame it, just benefits themselves. Power is whatever drink you like. It’s a campaigned all over the country your advice. What would you
and I can do it again. … They’ve tell him?
counted me out before, and I You’re going to have to play
think that they’re pretty short- some hardball with some of these
sighted in thinking that I can’t House members who are going
pull myself up by my bootstraps soft on them, some of the senators
one more time, and I can do who are going soft. The other
this, and I will.” I think there’s thing is I would start studying
some fight in the guy and some and do a little bit more like he did
self-confidence in the fact that [in the press conference]. You’re
he thinks he can bring it off one going to have to show that you can
more time. handle the press.
I think he’s got to show more
Where does the president’s flexibility and get away from the
family fit into the equation? damn teleprompter and just act
By most accounts, Jill Biden like Joe Biden. Get some self-
and his family have urged the confidence back. If he could do
president to hold fast, and that, I think it would benefit him
seem to be occupying a fiercely quite a bit.
protective role, just as Nancy But he does have to get on
Reagan seemed to. the road, just like Reagan did. I
It seems to me that Mrs. thought he would pull the same
Biden, the first lady, takes on kind of tactic that Reagan did
the role that I saw Mrs. Reagan after we had that bad debate in
play many, many times in 1980. Kentucky and get on the road and
There was a time in the campaign do sort of a Harry Truman, give-
in 1980 where we were having him-hell campaign.
stutter steps in the campaign, I think that teleprompter is
and things were moving a little like iPhones are to young kids.
slowly. And President Reagan They’re sort of hypnotized by it.
wasn’t one to be forceful in terms I think it’s a bad thing for him,
of cracking the whip and making and he could just be the old Joe
things go. When she joined the Biden, like he was in the Senate
campaign there in the first week and hang loose. There’s some
of October, she’d make sure risk involved in that, but maybe
things started happening. he’s going to have to take some
I referred to her then as the risks to win his self-confidence
chief of staff of the campaign, back. But they’ve got to be less
taking on a role like Bob controlling of him, and maybe
Haldeman did for Richard Nixon ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES just let Joe be Joe.
in his campaign in ’68 and then President Joe Biden reads from a teleprompter during a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House on July 3.
in the presidency. And I think to “I think they’ve chained him to a teleprompter all through the years,” said former Reagan White House aide Ken Charlie Mahtesian is a senior
some extent, Jill Biden is sort of Khachigian, “and he’s become so accustomed to that he’s lost his flair for the extemporaneous.” politics editor at Politico.
16 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

MAGAZINE

FRANCIS CHUNG/POLITICO
Few Republicans have been more vocally critical of the GOP’s modern economic conventions than Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, who has embraced not just tariffs, but also policies like a higher
minimum wage and increased barriers to corporate mergers. Vance is uninterested in the traditional small-government priorities that Trump’s previous vice president, Mike Pence, stood for.

Trump, Vance repudiate free-market conservatism

The last time Trump chose a running mate, he “Republican” means from a Politico this spring. rather than consumers. And
policy standpoint. The national Trump, of course, already immigrants are fundamentally
tried to align with GOP views. Not this time. debt is not even mentioned in dramatically shifted the policy a threat to higher wages and
the platform adopted by the GOP conversation during his last time raise costs for necessities such as
BY VICTORIA GUIDA policies like a higher minimum on Monday, even though it’s a in the Oval Office, shattering housing and health care, in his
CAPITAL LETTER wage and increased barriers to regular talking point among bipartisan norms around trade telling.

E
conomic populism corporate mergers — even openly lawmakers. and using the bully pulpit “The trade issue and the
has transmuted the praising President Joe Biden’s In my conversations with to shape private companies’ immigration issue are two sides
Republican Party, and that aggressive antitrust chief, Lina executives in recent months, behavior. of the same coin: The trade issue
new version of the GOP has just Khan. many of them seem to believe But it’s still a common is cheaper labor overseas; the
gone from one standard-bearer He is uninterested in that Trump — promising lower theme among Republicans that immigration issue is cheaper
to two. traditional small-government taxes and fewer regulations — government needs to get out of labor at home, which applies
Donald Trump’s choice of priorities. Consider the answer will ultimately be good for their businesses’ way. The Trump- upward pressure on a whole
J.D. Vance as his running mate he gave to New York Times bottom line. The selection of Vance approach doesn’t abandon host of services, from hospital
suggests he is leaning harder into columnist Ross Douthat when Vance gives shape to a second that message, but it does muddy services to housing and so forth,”
the economic policy instincts asked about fiscal discipline and term in a way that might give it. Vance told Douthat.
that helped land him his first the prospect for reforming Social them more pause. Some Republicans have It’s the inverse of mainstream
term in 2016 and that he no longer Security (which is more than a It’s hard to paint a full picture sounded wary about this economic theory, which says
feels the need to placate the type fifth of total federal spending). yet of what the Vance pick development. that more people can help the
of free-market conservatives who “One way of understanding the might mean for Trump 2.0, but “If and when he gets guided economic pie grow rather than
have dominated the party for Social Security problem is, old it’s an early indication that the to support policies with which being stuck in a zero-sum
decades. people can’t work, young people sort of Wall Street types who I disagree … I look forward to game and that immigrants are
The former president’s can, babies can’t. So people at a held key positions in the former engaging with Vance, whether particularly important to fill jobs
views on tariffs, spending and certain age support the babies president’s first term — think he’s a senator or whether he’s a as the native-born population
immigration were no doubt a key and the old people,” he said. former Goldman Sachs COO vice president, to make sure that ages.
ingredient to his electoral success “If the argument here is we Gary Cohn — might have less we are reminding the country Trump has battered these ideas
in 2016. But he chose Mike Pence have to cut Social Security, then influence this go-around. that free-market capitalism is and principles since 2016. And
as his vice president for that what you’re effectively saying is It’s also further evidence that America First,” Rep. Andy Barr if he’s elected again, he’ll have a
race — a candidate with more we just have to privatize what is Trump intends to venture more (R-Ky.), who is vying to lead the vice president to help him finish
traditionally conservative free- currently a public problem of who deeply into industrial policy, Financial Services Committee the job.
market viewpoints. pays for the older generation,” he where the government plays a next year, told my colleague
Now, the center of gravity added. “And I don’t know why much more active role in shaping Zach Warmbrodt before the Victoria Guida is an economics
has shifted, and Republicans people think you solve many the economy with tools like vice presidential pick was reporter covering the Federal
in Congress will feel the pull if problems by taking a bunch of tariffs. Vance is an enthusiastic announced. Reserve, the Treasury Department
Trump wins in November. elderly people and saying, ‘You’re proponent. Vance’s America First and the forces driving economic
Few Republicans have been on your own.’” “You’re going to see a much ideology is also fundamentally policy. Her column, Capital Letter,
more vocally critical of the Not the answer you’d expect more aggressive approach rooted in nativism. Vance, like demystifies the policies, people
party’s modern economic from an old-school Republican, to protecting domestic other key voices in Trump’s and institutions that shape the
conventions than Vance, who has although — to my point — it is manufacturers” if Trump orbit, describes a view of financial system and the broader
embraced not just tariffs, but also hard to identify precisely what wins a second term, Vance told Americans as workers first, economy.
 W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4 | P O L I T I C O | 17

MAGAZINE

To the world, Trump 2.0 looks even more likely now

Many foreign officials
see an era of political
violence ahead for
the United States
BY NAHAL TOOSI
COMPASS

F
oreign diplomats have
long watched America’s
increasingly toxic
politics with intrigue if not
outright dread. The attempted
assassination of former President
Donald Trump has some of them
now predicting that he will likely
win the presidential race in
November — and that more U.S.
political violence is on the way.
These assessments, no doubt
being rapidly typed into classified
cables to send to superiors back
home, are not made willy-nilly.
For diplomats from countries
friendly with the United States,
the conclusions are especially
unnerving, because instability in
America could mean instability
everywhere.
Diplomats’ words also carry
particular weight: It is their job
to watch other nations’ politics
closely, and they help shape how
their governments react.
In conversations with such
envoys from three continents,
it became clear to me that their
main takeaway feels almost
inescapable after an assassin’s
bullet apparently grazed
and bloodied the Republican
candidate’s ear on Saturday.
“The shooting makes Trump’s
victory in the election more KIRSTY WIGGLESWORTH/AP
likely,” one Latin American Many foreign diplomats believe the assassination attempt makes Donald Trump’s return to the White House almost a certainty. “The shooting makes
diplomat said. Trump’s victory in the election more likely,” one Latin American diplomat said. “It sealed his victory,” an African diplomat predicted.
“It is a powerful drive for that,”
admitted a senior European
diplomat. even though he’s often accused of assault on Trump, which killed European governments are that are friendly with
“It sealed his victory,” an calling for it — it makes it harder one bystander, some on the especially worried about what Washington, stability in America
African diplomat predicted. for Biden and other Democrats to right and left immediately threw a Trump win will mean for is key to events elsewhere.
(All were granted anonymity criticize him, at least for a while. accusations at one another, Ukraine, and whether he will While no one was predicting
to discuss a sensitive topic A bloodied Trump even trying to politically capitalize on abandon Kyiv as it fends off a a second U.S. civil war is in
candidly.) managed to pump his fist in the what happened. It’s also not lost Russian invasion. the offing, even a distracted
These diplomats are well air and shout “Fight! Fight!” on them that the attack on Trump But many world leaders, even U.S. government means global
aware that four months is a long as security officials rushed came just before the launch of the those clearly wary of Trump, problems that need Washington’s
stretch in an already overlong him away in an iconic moment Republican National Convention, nonetheless expressed horror involvement could be neglected,
U.S. election cycle. Even if the projected around the world. a forum likely to carry many and dismay at the violence he feeding instability beyond U.S.
vote were days away, wild swings All of this “makes Trump’s tirades against the other party. faced. borders.
are still possible. Ask France. personal image, charisma “Everyone is trying to see Some diplomats told me they Some foreign diplomats also
And they’ve been wrong before: are asking whether, in the wake
Plenty of foreign diplomats of the assassination attempt,
thought Trump would lose in a future President Trump will
2016 and expected he would score
a second term in 2020.
Some diplomats suspect that because Trump has been the victim of political find more reasons and less
pushback in trying to impose an
But already in recent weeks, violence — even though he’s often accused of calling for it — it’s harder authoritarian vision on America.
some capitals had come to see He has often expressed
Trump as a stronger candidate
for Biden and other Democrats to criticize him, at least for a while. sympathy for anti-democratic
because of President Joe Biden’s ideas.
weakness, exemplified by his “The main concern is for U.S.
disastrous debate performance. democracy,” the Latin American
Democrats are fighting over and personal authority more how it will give way to more worried that America’s rivals, diplomat said. “There is a real
whether Biden’s age and health powerful. It will be much harder polarization,” another European such as Russia, China and Iran, potential for radicalism and
make him fit to remain their to challenge him either internally diplomat said of the attack. could use the moment to spread increased violence. The reactions
candidate. or internationally,” the Latin (Also not lost on many disinformation among U.S. of Trump himself and other
Foreign governments routinely American diplomat said. foreign diplomats: The U.S. has citizens, deepening polarization politicians will be crucial: Will
prepare for all political outcomes There are Republicans and less standing to lecture other and spurring more violence. they raise the temperature or
from elections, but a loss of Democrats calling for calm and countries on political violence “Gun control is an issue,” lower it?”
confidence in Biden can have national unity. But such words now.) the senior European diplomat
significant consequences for the are unlikely to lead foreign A Trump win could mean pointed out. Nahal Toosi is Politico’s senior
United States. Other nations officials to change their growing radical shifts in U.S. policy That was a nod to a common foreign affairs correspondent. She
may decide to curtail or delay belief that U.S. political violence toward many countries. Trump concern among foreign has reported on war, genocide and
cooperation on important is something to expect rather has a more idiosyncratic and officials, many of whom view political chaos in a career that
matters with the Biden team, than to be surprised by. transactional approach to the widespread availability of has taken her around the world.
believing it’s best to wait for the They’ve seen too much of it the world than Biden, often firearms in the United States and Her reported column, Compass,
arrival of a new administration. already, including the Jan. 6, dismissing U.S. allies and the endless mass shootings with delves into the decision-making
Some diplomats suspect that 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. seeming more open to deal- astonishment. of the global national security and
because Trump has been the It’s not lost on the diplomats making with adversaries such For many foreign officials, foreign policy establishment — and
victim of political violence — that, immediately after the as the boss in the Kremlin. especially those in countries the fallout that comes from it.
18 | P O L I T I C O | W E D N E S D A Y, J U LY 1 7, 2 0 2 4

MATT WUERKER

CARTOON CAROUSEL

STEVE KELLY CREATORS.COM MICHAEL DEADDER CAGLE CARTOONS

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Paving the Way for America’s

Clean Energy Future
America’s leaders must take advantage of low-cost, low-carbon
ethanol to achieve our nation’s shared energy goals. Readily
available at gas stations throughout the country, ethanol plays
a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, bolstering
the economy and advancing U.S. energy independence.

Ethanol’s Impact:
Results in up to 52 percent fewer greenhouse
gas emissions than regular gasoline.
Provides drivers relief at the gas pump, saving
them an average of 25 cents per gallon.
Strengthens rural communities, generating
$10.4 billion in tax revenue for federal, state
and local governments in 2023 alone.
Bolsters the economy, supporting nearly
394,400 direct and indirect jobs, adding
$32.5 billion in household income and
contributing more than $54.2 billion to the
nation’s gross domestic product last year.
Adds about 15 billion gallons to the nation’s
fuel supply each year.

Learn more about the role corn

ethanol plays in decarbonizing
the transportation sector at
NCGA.com/ethanol