Backtesting data on AUDCAD on the month

of October 2023.
By Nompuru_TheeShark
1. First Trade
BEFORE:
4H Timeframe

• Price is in a bearish (down trending) channel.

• Current price have bearish sentiment as price was
not able to break above resistance.
1H Timeframe

• Price still has a bearish sentiment.

• Price approached the resistance zone with a rising
wedge.
 • Price retested and validated support and continued
to move bearishly.
• Price found support later, and it is looking like it is
moving upwards towards resistance.
• Wait for price to move towards the resistance and
see how it behaves or wait to see if it creates a
pattern.
• Let’s analyse on a lower timeframe.
15 Minutes Timeframe

• Price is forming a continuation pattern.

• It might be correcting before a strong downward
move.
• Wait for a three-touch confirmation on the upside of
the pattern and a breakout for an entry.
• Alternatively, expect price to return to resistance to
retest or break.
Entry:
 • We were waiting for a three-touch confirmation,
but we got a two-touch confirmation.
• Three is perfect but two is good.
• Price broke the pattern with a strong bearing
candlestick but before that is most important
signal for our entry, i.e., the consolidation.
• Risk to Reward is 1:2.
• Stop loss placed above the consolidation before
breakout.
• Take Profit at the nearest support level.

Results
 • Trade was a successful trade, even though it started
with some further consolidation before the strong
bearish move.
• Trade was executed at 8:45pm and closed at 6:00am
with strong bearish moves at 02:15am.
2. Second Trade
BEFORE
4H Timeframe

• Price is bearish but keep in mind that price is in a

channel and the major current price movement in
the channel is bullish.
• Price is approaching an important support zone that
coincide with the 0.618 fib level.

1H Timeframe
 • Support is respected, bullish pin bar on support.
15 Minutes Timeframe

• Bullish engulfing pattern on the support level.

• Descending channel pattern.
• Increasing or Expanding volume on the bullish
engulfing pattern.
• Thisbecause the small bearing candlestick closed
below support and the bullish candlestick closed
above support, imitating a breakout.
ENTRY

• The bullish engulfing pattern was a signal alone but

the addition of the descending channel and volume
as a signal put the odds in our favour.
• Risk to reward of 1:3.
• Take Profit at the next important resistance zone.
• Stop loss few pips below the low of the bullish
engulfing pattern.
• Once in profit, stop loss will be move to the high of
the descending channel which also happen to be an
important level.
• The trade setup was spotted on the 3rd of October
2023 on a Tuesday at 4:30pm.
• The trade is initiated using a buy stop.

RESULTS
• Trade automatically initiated on the 4th of October
2023, on a Wednesday at 01:45am and was closed
with a TP hit on the 5th of October 2023, on a
Thursday at 05:15am.
• Before Trade was initiated, price moved indecisively
and retested the lowest low of the bullish engulfing
pattern two more times, creating a triple bottom.
• The stop loss was adjusted two times to protect the
profits realised.
• The first adjustment was to the resistance level that
was prior determined before the initiation the trade.
• The second adjustment was because as price was
moving up, it retraced and created a support level.
• Overall, the trade was successful.
3. Third Trade
“Note that before this trade signal was given, we had to wait for at least six trading
days”.

BEFORE:
4H Timeframe

• Market trading in a range.

• Price prints a bullish pin bar at the low of a
descending channel which coincide with a support
area.

1H Timeframe
 • Market prints a morning star which is a signal to go
long.
• Let’s wait for the break of the descending channel in
the 15 minutes timeframe.

15 Minutes Timeframe

• Wait for a breakout for entry.

• Pay attention to volume at breakout.
• Price looks like it wants to consolidate before
breakout.
• If price consolidate before breakout, enter trade
after the breakout candlesticks with an expanding
volume.
• If trade doesn’t consolidate, enter trade after a
retest or price correction.
• If price breaks support, DO NOT ENTER.
• Price retested support.
ENTRY

• Trade signal was given on the 13 October 2023, on

Friday at 2:15pm during the opening of the New York
Session when Price broke out the descending
channel with a strong bullish candlestick followed by
an expanding channel.
• A level that a stop loss is going to be moved to is pre-
determined.
• Risk to Reward Ratio is 1:3.
• Stop loss few pips below support.
• Take profit at the second closest last high price.
 RESULTS

• Trade was unsuccessful.

• I did not feel good about this trade, I rush to enter
on the next available “signal”.
• The trade was automatically executed with a buy
stop on Friday the 13th of October 2023 at 2:45pm
and exited with a stop loss at 4:00pm.
LESSON: Its normal for the market to stay too long without
giving you a signal. In such a case do not rush to take the next
available signal that doesn’t fit all your entry criteria because
of FOMO. I should have waited for breakout and retest.
4. Fourth Trade
BEFORE:
4H Timeframe

• Price broke support with a very bearish candlestick.

• Price is now retesting the old support area, now
resistance.
• Bearish engulfing pattern prints on resistance.
• The engulfed candle is a bearish pin bar rejecting
higher prices.

1H Timeframe
• Gravestone doji at resistance followed by a berish
maribuzo.

15 Minutes Timeframe

• Ascending channel spotted.

• Breakout on the ascending channel.
• High of the channel at the resistance level respected at
1H and 4H Timeframe, also respected with a bearish
pin bar and a bearish maribuzo.
• Breakout and retest to a new resistance level that was
support in the ascending channel.
• If Price retest the new resistance for the second time,
that is a strong signal for entry.
• A buy stop can be placed right away below the low of
the consolidation candlesticks after the first retest to
the new resistance.
• Trade signal was spotted on Monday, 16th of October
2023 at 3:00pm.
 ENTRY

• Risk to Reward ratio of 1:3.

• Two pre-determined levels where the stop loss is going
to be moved.
• First one is for the respect of the 90% rule of the
ascending channel, and the second one is the low of
the channel.
• Stop loss is initially placed above the new resistance.
• Take profit is set at the lowest low of the market which
is within the price projections of the move.

RESULTS
 • Trade was unsuccessful.
• Trade moved in the expectation of the market
and reversed.
• Trade exited with a stop loss.
• Trade initiated on Monday, the 16th of October
2023 at 3:30pm and exited at 4:45pm.
LESSON: The market is not controlled by anyone; it moves on
its own. Sometimes you going to take losses, its fine.

5. Fifth Trade
BEFORE:
4H Timeframe

• Overall trend is still bearish and there is a descending

channel forming inside a descending channel.
• Bearish harami on resistance which is a significant fib
level follow by a strong bearing candlestick.
• Price was correcting.
1H Timeframe

• Price retested the up-trendline.

• Breakout on an ascending correction pattern with a
consolidation before the breakout retesting the
resistance level followed by a spinning top touching
the level with its upper wick.
15 Minutes Timeframe

• Ascending channel broken.

• Bearish engulfing on the resistance after a breakout.
ENTRY

• Bearish engulfing on resistance was a sure signal to sell.

• Risk to Reward ratio of 1:2.
• Stop loss few pips above the resistance level.
• Take profit within profit projections and almost at the low
of the ascending channel.

RESULTS

• Trade successful, TP hit.

• Stop loss was moved during the trade to the next
significant level to protect profits.
• Trade initiated on Thursday, 19th October 2023 at
11:45pm and closed on Friday, 20th October 2023 at
10:00am.
LESSON: Its important to relate the immediate market
direction to the overall market direction. Also take note of
channels that form within channels. Be patient with market
to give you a valid signal and DO NOT LET LOSSES
DISCOURAGE YOU.

6. Sixth Trade
BEFORE:
4H Timeframe

• Morning star at 0.786 fib level, which also happens to

be the retest of the up-trendline from breakout.
• The immediate trend is bullish.
1H Timeframe
 • 0.786 fib level respected.
• Break on the support of 0.618 fib level signal a
bullish move.
15 Minutes Timeframe

• Descending channel breakout.

• Low of the channel find support at up-trendline.
• Expect price to fall a bit before shooting to the
upwards.
ENTRY

• Bullish engulfing a pin bar at support was a signal for

entry.
• Risk to Reward ratio of 1:2.
• Stop loss below support.
• Take profit at resistance.
• Stop loss will be moved once in profit.

RESULTS

• TP hit, trade successful.

• Stop loss was moved to the high of the channel.
 • Trade initiated Thursday, the 26th of October 2023 at
9:00am and exited at 3:45pm.
LESSON: Entering at the right time is rewarding. Its also
important to note when the immediate direction of the trend
has changed.

Reflection on the month

AUDCAD on the month of October of 2023

Trade Position Risk/Rewar Profit/Loss(% Signal Sessio Duration

Number Type d ) n
1 Short 1:2 2 Wedge&Fla Sydney 9 hours
g

2 Long 1:3 3 Descending Both 1day&3hrs

channel

3 Long 1:3 -1 Descending New 30min

Channel York

4 Short 1:3 -1 Ascending New 1hr

channel York

5 Short 1:2 2 Ascending Sydney 10 hours

Channel

6 Long 1:2 2 Descending New 7 hours

Channel York

Overall Long/Shor 1:3 7 Channel New 9 hours

t York

Source: Bullshark Traders.

Notes
• Strategy success is 66%.
• Channels are common on this pair during this month.
• New York session is where most signals come from.
Market Sentiment: When the month began, the pair was trading in a channel
prevalent in the 4H Timeframe. The month ended with price still in that
timeframe. This channel is ascending which might hint to an overall bearish
sentiment. The positions we took suggest and equal distribution of bulls and
bears. The average time a trade should run is 9 hours with maximum being a day
and few hours. The pair is active in both Sydney and New York session, but the
New York session in this month gave a lot of trading opportunities or rather we
say profits.
Lessons:
• After a channel break wait for a retest to the channel broken
trendline or determine support or resistance zone before entry and
observe how price behaves.
• Sometimes the market can spend a lot of time without giving a
trade signal and that’s fine.
• Trading strategy doesn’t play out as expected always, prepare to
take loses and leverage your trades properly.
• Always avoid trading because of FOMO.
• Immediate market sentiment can change anytime, it is important
to re-analyze your charts from time to time, especially in the lower
timeframes, specifically the 1H.