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Full Essentials of Modern Business Statistics With Microsoft Excel 8th Edition David Anderson Ebook All Chapters

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Essentials of Modern
Business Statistics 8e

with Microsoft® Excel®

James J. Cochran
Thomas A. Williams The University of Alabama
David R. Anderson Rochester Institute
University of Cincinnati
of Technology Michael J. Fry
University of Cincinnati
Dennis J. Sweeney Jeffrey D. Camm
University of Cincinnati
Wake Forest University Jeffrey W. Ohlmann
University of Iowa

Australia ● Brazil ● Mexico ● Singapore ● United Kingdom ● United States

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Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with © 2020, 2018 Cengage Learning, Inc.
Microsoft Excel , 8e
® ®
Unless otherwise noted, all content is © Cengage.
David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney,
WCN: 02-300
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James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright herein
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Print Number: 01    Print Year: 2019

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Brief Contents
PREFACE xix
ABOUT THE AUTHORS xxv

Chapter 1 Data and Statistics 1


Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Displays 35
Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures 103
Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability 171
Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions 217
Chapter 6 Continuous Probability Distributions 273
Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 305
Chapter 8 Interval Estimation 355
Chapter 9 Hypothesis Tests 397
Chapter 10 Inference About Means and Proportions with Two
Populations 445
Chapter 11 Inferences About Population Variances 489
Chapter 12 Tests of Goodness of Fit, Independence, and Multiple
Proportions 517
Chapter 13 Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance 551
Chapter 14 Simple Linear Regression 605
Chapter 15 Multiple Regression 685
Appendix A References and Bibliography 734
Appendix B Tables 736
Appendix C Summation Notation 747
Appendix D Answers to Even-Numbered Exercises (MindTap Reader)
Appendix E Microsoft Excel and Tools for Statistical Analysis 749
Appendix F Microsoft Excel Online and Tools for Statistical Analysis 757

Index 765

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Contents
PREFACE xix
ABOUT THE AUTHORS xxv

Chapter 1 Data and Statistics   1


Statistics in Practice: Bloomberg Businessweek 2
1.1 Applications in Business and Economics 3
Accounting 3
Finance 3
Marketing 4
Production 4
Economics 4
Information Systems 4
1.2 Data 5
Elements, Variables, and Observations 5
Scales of Measurement 5
Categorical and Quantitative Data 7
Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data 8
1.3 Data Sources 10
Existing Sources 10
Observational Study 11
Experiment 12
Time and Cost Issues 13
Data Acquisition Errors 13
1.4 Descriptive Statistics 13
1.5 Statistical Inference 15
1.6 Statistical Analysis Using Microsoft Excel 16
Data Sets and Excel Worksheets 17
Using Excel for Statistical Analysis 18
1.7 Analytics 20
1.8 Big Data and Data Mining 21
1.9 Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice 22
Summary 24
Glossary 24
Supplementary Exercises 25
Appendix 1.1 Getting Started with R and RStudio (MindTap Reader)
Appendix 1.2 Basic Data Manipulation in R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical


Displays  35
Statistics in Practice: Colgate-Palmolive Company 36
2.1 Summarizing Data for a Categorical Variable 37
Frequency Distribution 37
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 38

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vi Contents

Using Excel to Construct a Frequency Distribution, a Relative


Frequency Distribution, and a Percent Frequency Distribution 39
Bar Charts and Pie Charts 40
Using Excel to Construct a Bar Chart 42
2.2 Summarizing Data for a Quantitative Variable 47
Frequency Distribution 47
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 49
Using Excel to Construct a Frequency Distribution 50
Dot Plot 51
Histogram 52
Using Excel’s Recommended Charts Tool to Construct
a Histogram 54
Cumulative Distributions 55
Stem-and-Leaf Display 56
2.3 Summarizing Data for Two Variables Using Tables 65
Crosstabulation 65
Using Excel’s PivotTable Tool to Construct a Crosstabulation 68
Simpson’s Paradox 69
2.4 Summarizing Data for Two Variables Using Graphical Displays 75
Scatter Diagram and Trendline 76
Using Excel to Construct a Scatter Diagram and a Trendline 77
Side-by-Side and Stacked Bar Charts 79
Using Excel’s Recommended Charts Tool to Construct
Side-by-Side and Stacked Bar Charts 81
2.5  Data Visualization: Best Practices in Creating Effective Graphical
Displays 85
Creating Effective Graphical Displays 85
Choosing the Type of Graphical Display 86
Data Dashboards 86
Data Visualization in Practice: Cincinnati Zoo
and Botanical Garden 88
Summary 90
Glossary 91
Key Formulas 92
Supplementary Exercises 93
Case Problem 1: Pelican Stores 98
Case Problem 2: Movie Theater Releases 99
Case Problem 3: Queen City 100
Case Problem 4: Cut-Rate Machining, Inc. 100
Appendix 2.1 Creating Tabular and Graphical Presentations with R
(MindTap Reader)

Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures   103


Statistics in Practice: Small Fry Design 104
3.1 Measures of Location 105
Mean 105

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Contents vii

Median 107
Mode 108
Using Excel to Compute the Mean, Median, and Mode 109
Weighted Mean 109
Geometric Mean 111
Using Excel to Compute the Geometric Mean 112
Percentiles 113
Quartiles 114
Using Excel to Compute Percentiles and Quartiles 115
3.2 Measures of Variability 121
Range 122
Interquartile Range 122
Variance 122
Standard Deviation 124
Using Excel to Compute the Sample Variance and Sample
Standard Deviation 125
Coefficient of Variation 126
Using Excel’s Descriptive Statistics Tool 126
3.3  Measures of Distribution Shape, Relative Location,
and Detecting Outliers 130
Distribution Shape 130
z-Scores 131
Chebyshev’s Theorem 132
Empirical Rule 133
Detecting Outliers 134
3.4 Five-Number Summaries and Boxplots 138
Five-Number Summary 138
Boxplot 138
Using Excel to Construct a Boxplot 139
Comparative Analysis Using Boxplots 139
Using Excel to Construct a Comparative Analysis
Using Boxplots 140
3.5 Measures of Association Between Two Variables 144
Covariance 144
Interpretation of the Covariance 146
Correlation Coefficient 148
Interpretation of the Correlation Coefficient 149
Using Excel to Compute the Sample Covariance
and Sample Correlation Coefficient 151
3.6  Data Dashboards: Adding Numerical Measures to Improve
Effectiveness 153
Summary 156
Glossary 157
Key Formulas 158
Supplementary Exercises 159
Case Problem 1: Pelican Stores 165

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viii Contents

Case Problem 2: Movie Theater Releases 166


Case Problem 3: Business Schools of Asia-Pacific 167
Case Problem 4: Heavenly Chocolates Website Transactions 167
Case Problem 5: African Elephant Populations 169
Appendix 3.1 Descriptive Statistics with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability   171


Statistics in Practice: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 172
4.1 Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning Probabilities 173
Counting Rules, Combinations, and Permutations 174
Assigning Probabilities 178
Probabilities for the KP&L Project 179
4.2 Events and Their Probabilities 183
4.3 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 187
Complement of an Event 187
Addition Law 188
4.4 Conditional Probability 193
Independent Events 196
Multiplication Law 196
4.5 Bayes’ Theorem 201
Tabular Approach 204
Summary 206
Glossary 207
Key Formulas 208
Supplementary Exercises 208
Case Problem 1: Hamilton County Judges 213
Case Problem 2: Rob’s Market 215

Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions   217


Statistics in Practice: Voter Waiting Times in Elections 218
5.1 Random Variables 218
Discrete Random Variables 219
Continuous Random Variables 220
5.2 Developing Discrete Probability Distributions 221
5.3 Expected Value and Variance 226
Expected Value 226
Variance 227
Using Excel to Compute the Expected Value, Variance,
and Standard Deviation 228
5.4  Bivariate Distributions, Covariance, and Financial Portfolios 233
A Bivariate Empirical Discrete Probability Distribution 233
Financial Applications 236
Summary 239
5.5 Binomial Probability Distribution 242
A Binomial Experiment 242

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Contents ix

Martin Clothing Store Problem 244


Using Excel to Compute Binomial Probabilities 248
Expected Value and Variance for the Binomial
Distribution 249
5.6 Poisson Probability Distribution 252
An Example Involving Time Intervals 253
An Example Involving Length or Distance Intervals 254
Using Excel to Compute Poisson Probabilities 254
5.7 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 257
Using Excel to Compute Hypergeometric Probabilities 259
Summary 261
Glossary 262
Key Formulas 263
Supplementary Exercises 264
Case Problem 1: Go Bananas! Breakfast Cereal 268
Case Problem 2: McNeil’s Auto Mall 269
Case Problem 3: Grievance Committee at Tuglar Corporation 270
Case Problem 4: Sagittarius Casino 270
Appendix 5.1 Discrete Probability Distributions with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 6 Continuous Probability Distributions   273


Statistics in Practice: Procter & Gamble 274
6.1  Uniform Probability Distribution 275
Area as a Measure of Probability 276
6.2  Normal Probability Distribution 279
Normal Curve 279
Standard Normal Probability Distribution 281
Computing Probabilities for Any Normal Probability
Distribution 285
Grear Tire Company Problem 286
Using Excel to Compute Normal Probabilities 288
6.3  Exponential Probability Distribution 293
Computing Probabilities for the Exponential Distribution 294
Relationship Between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions 295
Using Excel to Compute Exponential Probabilities 295
Summary 298
Glossary 298
Key Formulas 298
Supplementary Exercises 299
Case Problem 1: Specialty Toys 301
Case Problem 2: Gebhardt Electronics 302
Appendix 6.1 Continuous Probability Distributions with R
(MindTap Reader)

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x Contents

Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions   305


Statistics in Practice: The Food and Agriculture Organization 306
7.1 The Electronics Associates Sampling Problem 307
7.2 Selecting a Sample 308
Sampling from a Finite Population 308
Sampling from an Infinite Population 312
7.3 Point Estimation 316
Practical Advice 317
7.4 Introduction to Sampling Distributions 319
7.5  Sampling Distribution of x 322
Expected Value of x 322
Standard Deviation of x 322
Form of the Sampling Distribution of x 324
Sampling Distribution of x for the EAI Problem 324
Practical Value of the Sampling Distribution of x 325
Relationship Between the Sample Size
and the Sampling Distribution of x 327
7.6 Sampling Distribution of p 331
Expected Value of p 332
Standard Deviation of p 332
Form of the Sampling Distribution of p 333
Practical Value of the Sampling Distribution of p 333
7.7 Other Sampling Methods 337
Stratified Random Sampling 337
Cluster Sampling 337
Systematic Sampling 338
Convenience Sampling 338
Judgment Sampling 339
7.8 Practical Advice: Big Data and Errors in Sampling 339
Sampling Error 339
Nonsampling Error 340
Big Data 341
Understanding What Big Data Is 342
Implications of Big Data for Sampling Error 343
Summary 348
Glossary 348
Key Formulas 349
Supplementary Exercises 350
Case Problem: Marion Dairies 353
Appendix 7.1 Random Sampling with R (MindTap Reader)

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Contents xi

Chapter 8 Interval Estimation  355


Statistics in Practice: Food Lion 356
8.1 Population Mean:  Known 357
Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate 357
Using Excel 361
Practical Advice 362
8.2 Population Mean:  Unknown 364
Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate 365
Using Excel 368
Practical Advice 369
Using a Small Sample 369
Summary of Interval Estimation Procedures 371
8.3 Determining the Sample Size 374
8.4 Population Proportion 377
Using Excel 378
Determining the Sample Size 380
8.5 Practical Advice: Big Data and Interval Estimation 384
Big Data and the Precision of Confidence Intervals 384
Implications of Big Data for Confidence Intervals 385
Summary 387
Glossary 388
Key Formulas 388
Supplementary Exercises 389
Case Problem 1: Young Professional Magazine 392
Case Problem 2: GULF Real Estate Properties 393
Case Problem 3: Metropolitan Research, Inc. 395
Appendix 8.1 Interval Estimation with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 9 Hypothesis Tests  397


Statistics in Practice: John Morrell & Company 398
9.1 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses 399
The Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis 399
The Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to Be Challenged 400
Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses 401
9.2 Type I and Type II Errors 402
9.3 Population Mean: s Known 405
One-Tailed Test 405
Two-Tailed Test 410
Using Excel 413
Summary and Practical Advice 414
Relationship Between Interval Estimation
and Hypothesis Testing 415
9.4 Population Mean: s Unknown 420
One-Tailed Test 421
Two-Tailed Test 422

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xii Contents

Using Excel 423


Summary and Practical Advice 425
9.5 Population Proportion 428
Using Excel 430
Summary 431
9.6  Practical Advice: Big Data and Hypothesis Testing 434
Big Data, Hypothesis Testing, and p-Values 434
Implications of Big Data in Hypothesis Testing 436
Summary 437
Glossary 438
Key Formulas 438
Supplementary Exercises 439
Case Problem 1: Quality Associates, Inc. 442
Case Problem 2: Ethical Behavior of Business Students at Bayview
University 443
Appendix 9.1 Hypothesis Testing with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 10 Inference About Means and Proportions with Two


Populations  445
Statistics in Practice: U.S. Food and Drug Administration 446
10.1  Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population Means:
s1 and s2 Known 447
Interval Estimation of m1 2 m2 447
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 449
Hypothesis Tests About m1 2 m2 451
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 452
Practical Advice 454
10.2  Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: s1 and s2 Unknown 456
Interval Estimation of m1 2 m2 457
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 458
Hypothesis Tests About m1 2 m2 460
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 462
Practical Advice 463
10.3  Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population Means:
Matched Samples 467
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 469
10.4  Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Proportions 474
Interval Estimation of p1 2 p2 474
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 476
Hypothesis Tests About p1 2 p2 477
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 479
Summary 483
Glossary 483

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Contents xiii

Key Formulas 483


Supplementary Exercises 485
Case Problem: Par, Inc. 488
Appendix 10.1 Inferences About Two Populations with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 11 Inferences About Population Variances   489


Statistics in Practice: U.S. Government Accountability Office 490
11.1 Inferences About a Population Variance 491
Interval Estimation 491
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 495
Hypothesis Testing 496
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 498
11.2 Inferences About Two Population Variances 503
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 507
Summary 511
Key Formulas 511
Supplementary Exercises 511
Case Problem 1: Air Force Training Program 513
Case Problem 2: Meticulous Drill & Reamer 514
Appendix 11.1 Population Variances with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 12  ests of Goodness of Fit, Independence, and Multiple


T
Proportions  517
Statistics in Practice: United Way 518
12.1 Goodness of Fit Test 519
Multinomial Probability Distribution 519
Using Excel to Conduct a Goodness of Fit Test 523
12.2 Test of Independence 525
Using Excel to Conduct a Test of Independence 529
12.3  Testing for Equality of Three or More Population Proportions 534
A Multiple Comparison Procedure 537
Using Excel to Conduct a Test of Multiple Proportions 539
Summary 543
Glossary 544
Key Formulas 544
Supplementary Exercises 544
Case Problem 1: A Bipartisan Agenda for Change 547
Case Problem 2: Fuentes Salty Snacks, Inc. 548
Case Problem 3: Fresno Board Games 549
Appendix 12.1 Chi-Square Tests with R (MindTap Reader)

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xiv Contents

Chapter 13 Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance   551


Statistics in Practice: Burke, Inc. 552
13.1  An Introduction to Experimental Design and Analysis of
Variance 553
Data Collection 554
Assumptions for Analysis of Variance 556
Analysis of Variance: A Conceptual Overview 556
13.2  Analysis of Variance and the Completely Randomized Design 558
Between-Treatments Estimate of Population Variance 559
Within-Treatments Estimate of Population Variance 560
Comparing the Variance Estimates: The F Test 561
ANOVA Table 562
Using Excel 563
Testing for the Equality of k Population Means:
An Observational Study 564
13.3 Multiple Comparison Procedures 570
Fisher’s LSD 570
Type I Error Rates 572
13.4 Randomized Block Design 575
Air Traffic Controller Stress Test 576
ANOVA Procedure 577
Computations and Conclusions 578
Using Excel 579
13.5 Factorial Experiment 584
ANOVA Procedure 585
Computations and Conclusions 586
Using Excel 589
Summary 593
Glossary 594
Key Formulas 595
Completely Randomized Design 595
Multiple Comparison Procedures 596
Randomized Block Design 596
Factorial Experiment 596
Supplementary Exercises 596
Case Problem 1: Wentworth Medical Center 601
Case Problem 2: Compensation for Sales Professionals 602
Case Problem 3: TourisTopia Travel 603
Appendix 13.1 Analysis of Variance with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 14 Simple Linear Regression   605


Statistics in Practice: walmart.com 606
14.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 607
Regression Model and Regression Equation 607
Estimated Regression Equation 609

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Contents xv

14.2 Least Squares Method 610


Using Excel to Construct a Scatter Diagram, Display
the Estimated Regression Line, and Display the Estimated
Regression Equation 614
14.3 Coefficient of Determination 621
Using Excel to Compute the Coefficient of Determination 625
Correlation Coefficient 626
14.4 Model Assumptions 629
14.5  Testing for Significance 631
Estimate of s2 631
t Test 632
Confidence Interval for b1 633
F Test 634
Some Cautions About the Interpretation of Significance Tests 636
14.6  Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation
and Prediction 639
Interval Estimation 640
Confidence Interval for the Mean Value of y 640
Prediction Interval for an Individual Value of y 641
14.7 Excel’s Regression Tool 646
Using Excel’s Regression Tool for the Armand’s Pizza
Parlors Example 646
Interpretation of Estimated Regression Equation Output 647
Interpretation of ANOVA Output 648
Interpretation of Regression Statistics Output 649
14.8  Residual Analysis: Validating Model Assumptions 651
Residual Plot Against x 652
Residual Plot Against y⁄ 653
Standardized Residuals 655
Using Excel to Construct a Residual Plot 657
Normal Probability Plot 660
14.9 Outliers and Influential Observations 663
Detecting Outliers 663
Detecting Influential Observations 665
14.10  Practical Advice: Big Data and Hypothesis Testing in Simple
Linear Regression 670
Summary 671
Glossary 671
Key Formulas 672
Supplementary Exercises 674
Case Problem 1: Measuring Stock Market Risk 678
Case Problem 2: U.S. Department of Transportation 679
Case Problem 3: Selecting a Point-and-Shoot Digital Camera 680
Case Problem 4: Finding the Best Car Value 681
Case Problem 5: Buckeye Creek Amusement Park 682

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xvi Contents

Appendix 14.1 Calculus-Based Derivation of Least Squares Formulas 683


Appendix 14.2 A Test for Significance Using Correlation 684
Appendix 14.3 Simple Linear Regression with R (MindTap Reader)

Chapter 15 Multiple Regression  685


Statistics in Practice: International Paper 686
15.1  Multiple Regression Model 687
Regression Model and Regression Equation 687
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation 687
15.2  Least Squares Method 688
An Example: Butler Trucking Company 689
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple
Regression Equation 691
Note on Interpretation of Coefficients 693
15.3  Multiple Coefficient of Determination 698
15.4  Model Assumptions 700
15.5  Testing for Significance 702
F Test 702
t Test 704
Multicollinearity 705
15.6  Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation
and Prediction 708
15.7 Categorical Independent Variables 710
An Example: Johnson Filtration, Inc. 710
Interpreting the Parameters 712
More Complex Categorical Variables 713
15.8  Residual Analysis 718
Residual Plot Against y⁄ 718
Standardized Residual Plot Against y⁄ 719
15.9  Practical Advice: Big Data and Hypothesis
Testing in Multiple Regression 722
Summary 723
Glossary 723
Key Formulas 724
Supplementary Exercises 725
Case Problem 1: Consumer Research, Inc. 729
Case Problem 2: Predicting Winnings for NASCAR Drivers 730
Case Problem 3: Finding the Best Car Value 732
Appendix 15.1 Multiple Linear Regression with R (MindTap Reader)

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Contents xvii

Appendix A  References and Bibliography 734

Appendix B Tables 736

Appendix C Summation Notation 747

Appendix D   Answers to Even-Numbered Exercises (MindTap Reader)

Appendix E   Microsoft Excel and Tools for Statistical Analysis 749

Appendix F  Microsoft Excel Online and Tools for Statistical Analysis 757

Index 765

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Preface
T his text is the eight edition of Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft®
Excel®. With this edition we welcome two eminent scholars to our author team:
Michael J. Fry of the University of Cincinnati and Jeffrey W. Ohlmann of the University of
Iowa. Both Mike and Jeff are accomplished teachers, researchers, and practitioners in the
fields of statistics and business analytics. You can read more about their accomplishments in
the About the Authors section that follows this preface. We believe that the addition of Mike
and Jeff as our coauthors will both maintain and improve the effectiveness of Essentials of
Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel.
The purpose of Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel is to give
students, primarily those in the fields of business administration and economics, a concep-
tual introduction to the field of statistics and its many applications. The text is applications
oriented and written with the needs of the nonmathematician in mind; the mathematical
prerequisite is knowledge of algebra.
Applications of data analysis and statistical methodology are an integral part of the orga-
nization and presentation of the text material. The discussion and development of each tech-
nique is presented in an applications setting, with the statistical results providing insights to
decisions and solutions to applied problems.
Although the book is applications oriented, we have taken care to provide sound meth-
odological development and to use notation that is generally accepted for the topic being
covered. Hence, students will find that this text provides good preparation for the study of
more advanced statistical material. A bibliography to guide further study is included as an
appendix.

Use of Microsoft Excel for Statistical Analysis


Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel is first and foremost a statis-
tics textbook that emphasizes statistical concepts and applications. But since most practical
problems are too large to be solved using hand calculations, some type of statistical software
package is required to solve these problems. There are several excellent statistical packages
available today. However, because most students and potential employers value spreadsheet
experience, many schools now use a spreadsheet package in their statistics courses. Micro-
soft Excel is the most widely used spreadsheet package in business as well as in colleges and
universities. We have written Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel
especially for statistics courses in which Microsoft Excel is used as the software package.
Excel has been integrated within each of the chapters and plays an integral part in pro-
viding an application orientation. Although we assume that readers using this text are
familiar with Excel basics such as selecting cells, entering formulas, and copying we do
not assume that readers are familiar with Excel or Excel’s tools for statistical analysis. As
a result, we have included Appendix E, which provides an introduction to Excel and tools
for statistical analysis.
Throughout the text the discussion of using Excel to perform a statistical procedure ap-
pears in a subsection immediately following the discussion of the statistical procedure. We
believe that this style enables us to fully integrate the use of Excel throughout the text, but
still maintain the primary emphasis on the statistical methodology being discussed. In each
of these subsections, we use a standard format for using Excel for statistical analysis. There
are four primary tasks: Enter/Access Data, Enter Functions and Formulas, Apply Tools, and
Editing Options. We believe a consistent framework for applying Excel helps users to focus
on the statistical methodology without getting bogged down in the details of using Excel.
In presenting worksheet figures we often use a nested approach in which the worksheet
shown in the background of the figure displays the formulas and the worksheet shown in the
foreground shows the values computed using the formulas. Different colors and shades of
colors are used to differentiate worksheet cells containing data, highlight cells containing

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xx Preface

Excel functions and formulas, and highlight material printed by Excel as a result of using
one or more data analysis tools.

Changes in the Eighth Edition


We appreciate the acceptance and positive response to the previous editions of Essentials of
Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel. Accordingly, in making modifications for
this new edition, we have maintained the presentation style and readability of those editions.
The significant changes in the new edition are summarized here.
●● Software. In addition to step-by-step instructions and screen captures that show
how to use the latest version of Excel to implement statistical procedures, we also
provide instructions for Excel Online and R through the MindTap Reader.
●● New Examples and Exercises Based on Real Data. In this edition, we have added
headers to all Applications exercises to make the application of each exercise more
clear. We have also added over 160 new examples and exercises based on real data
and referenced sources. By using data from sources also used by The Wall Street
Journal, USA Today, The Financial Times, Forbes, and others, we have drawn from
actual studies and applications to develop explanations and create exercises that
demonstrate the many uses of statistics in business and economics. We believe
that the use of real data from interesting and relevant problems generates greater
student interest in the material and enables the student to more effectively learn
about both statistical methodology and its application.
●● Case Problems. We have added four new case problems to this edition. The 47 case
problems in the text provide students with the opportunity to analyze somewhat
larger data sets and prepare managerial reports based on the results of their analysis.
●● Appendixes for Use of R. We now provide appendixes in the MindTap Reader for
many chapters that demonstrate the use of the popular open-source software R and
RStudio for statistical applications. The use of R is not required to solve any prob-
lems or cases in the textbook, but the appendixes provide an introduction to R and
RStudio for interested instructors and students.

Features and Pedagogy


Authors Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, and Ohlmann have continued
many of the features that appeared in previous editions. Important ones for students are
noted here.

Methods Exercises and Applications Exercises


The end-of-section exercises are split into two parts, Methods and Applications. The Meth-
ods exercises require students to use the formulas and make the necessary computations. The
Applications exercises require students to use the chapter material in real-world situations.
Thus, students first focus on the computational “nuts and bolts” and then move on to the
subtleties of statistical application and interpretation.

Margin Annotations and Notes and Comments


Margin annotations that highlight key points and provide additional insights for the student
are a key feature of this text. These annotations, which appear in the margins, are designed
to provide emphasis and enhance understanding of the terms and concepts being presented
in the text.
At the end of many sections, we provide Notes and Comments designed to give the stu-
dent additional insights about the statistical methodology and its application. Notes and
Comments include warnings about or limitations of the methodology, recommendations for
application, brief descriptions of additional technical considerations, and other matters.

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Preface xxi

Data Files Accompany the Text


Over 250 data files are available on the website that accompanies the text. DATAfile logos
are used in the text to identify the data sets that are available on the website. Data sets for all
case problems as well as data sets for larger exercises are included.

MindTap
MindTap, featuring all new Excel Online integration powered by Microsoft, is a complete
digital solution for the business statistics course. It has enhancements that take students from
learning basic statistical concepts to actively engaging in critical thinking applications, while
learning valuable software skills for their future careers. The R appendixes for many of the
chapters in the text are also accessible through MindTap.
MindTap is a customizable digital course solution that includes an interactive eBook and
autograded, algorithmic exercises from the textbook. All of these materials offer students
better access to understand the materials within the course. For more information on Mind-
Tap, please contact your Cengage representative.

For Students
Online resources are available to help the student work more efficiently. The resources can
be accessed at www.cengage.com/decisionsciences/anderson/embs/8e.

For Instructors
Instructor resources are available to adopters on the Instructor Companion Site, which can
be found and accessed at www.cengage.com/decisionsciences/anderson/embs/8e, including:
●● Solutions Manual: The Solutions Manual, prepared by the authors, includes solu-
tions for all problems in the text. It is available online as well as print.
●● Solutions to Case Problems: These are also prepared by the authors and contain
solutions to all case problems presented in the text.
●● PowerPoint Presentation Slides: The presentation slides contain a teaching out-
line that incorporates figures to complement instructor lectures.
●● Test Bank: Cengage Learning Testing Powered by Cognero is a flexible, online
system that allows you to:
●● author, edit, and manage test bank content from multiple Cengage Learning
solutions,
●● create multiple test versions in an instant, and
●● deliver tests from your LMS, your classroom, or wherever you want.

Acknowledgments
A special thanks goes to our associates from business and industry who supplied the Statis-
tics in Practice features. We recognize them individually by a credit line in each of the ar-
ticles. We are also indebted to our senior product manager, Aaron Arnsparger; our content
manager, Conor Allen; senior learning designer, Brandon Foltz; digital delivery lead, Mark
Hopkinson; and our senior project managers at MPS Limited, Santosh Pandey & Manoj
Kumar, for their editorial counsel and support during the preparation of this text.
We would like to acknowledge the work of our reviewers who provided comments and
suggestions of ways to continue to improve our text. Thanks to:

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xxii Preface

Jamal Abdul-Hafidh Yvonne Brown Nicolas Farnum


University of Missouri–St. Pima Community California State University,
Louis College Fullerton
Chris Adalikwu Dawn Bulriss Abe Feinberg
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University of Vermont Ohio State University Community College

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Preface xxiii

Eugene Jones Timothy E. McDaniel Leonard Presby


The Ohio State University Buena Vista University William Paterson
Naser Kamleh Kim I. Melton University
Wallace Community College North Georgia College & W. N. Pruitt
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Eileen Quinn Knight Jack Muryn Albertus Magnus College
St. Xavier University, University of Wisconsin, Carolyn Renier
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xxiv Preface

Harvey A. Singer Peter Wibawa Sutanto John Vogt


George Mason Prairie View A&M Newman University
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We would like to recognize the following individuals who have helped us in the past and
continue to influence our writing.

Glen Archibald David W. Cravens Paul Guy


University of Mississippi Texas Christian University California State University,
Mike Bourke Robert Carver Chico
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of Technology of Technology
Robert Cochran
University of Wyoming Phil Fry Jeffery Jarrett
Boise State University University of Rhode Island
Murray Côté
University of Florida

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About the Authors
David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus in the Carl H. Lindner
College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Grand Forks, North Dakota, he
earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Purdue University. Professor Anderson has
served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and Operations Management and
as Associate Dean of the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati.
In addition, he was the coordinator of the College’s first Executive Program.
At the University of Cincinnati, Professor Anderson has taught introductory statistics
for business students as well as graduate-level courses in regression analysis, multivariate
analysis, and management science. He has also taught statistical courses at the Department
of Labor in Washington, D.C. He has been honored with nominations and awards for excel-
lence in teaching and excellence in service to student organizations.
Professor Anderson has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management. He is an active
consultant in the field of sampling and statistical methods.

Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus in the Carl H. Lindner


College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Des Moines, Iowa, he earned a
B.S.B.A. degree from Drake University and his M.B.A. and D.B.A. degrees from Indiana
University, where he was an NDEA Fellow. Professor Sweeney has worked in the manage-
ment science group at Procter & Gamble and spent a year as a visiting professor at Duke
University. Professor Sweeney served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis
and as Associate Dean of the College of Business Administration at the University of
Cincinnati.
Professor Sweeney has published more than 30 articles and monographs in the area
of management science and statistics. The National Science Foundation, IBM, Procter &
Gamble, Federated Department Stores, Kroger, and Duke Energy have funded his research,
which has been published in Management Science, Operations Research, Mathematical
Programming, Decision Sciences, and other journals.
Professor Sweeney has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management.

Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management Science


in the College of Business at Rochester Institute of Technology. Born in Elmira, New York,
he earned his B.S. degree at Clarkson University. He did his graduate work at Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, where he received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
Before joining the College of Business at RIT, Professor Williams served for seven years
as a faculty member in the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincin-
nati, where he developed the undergraduate program in Information Systems and then served
as its coordinator. At RIT he was the first chairman of the Decision Sciences Department.
He has taught courses in management science and statistics, as well as graduate courses in
regression and decision analysis.
Professor Williams is the coauthor of 11 textbooks in the areas of management science,
statistics, production and operations management, and mathematics. He has been a consul-
tant for numerous Fortune 500 companies and has worked on projects ranging from the use
of data analysis to the development of large-scale regression models.

Jeffrey D. Camm. Jeffrey D. Camm is the Inmar Presidential Chair and Associate Dean of
Business Analytics in the School of Business at Wake Forest University. Born in Cincinnati,
Ohio, he holds a B.S. from Xavier University (Ohio) and a Ph.D. from Clemson University.

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xxvi About the Authors

Prior to joining the faculty at Wake Forest, he was on the faculty of the University of Cin-
cinnati. He has also been a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a visiting professor of
business administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College.
Dr. Camm has published over 30 papers in the general area of optimization applied to
problems in operations management and marketing. He has published his research in Sci-
ence, Management Science, Operations Research, Interfaces, and other professional jour-
nals. Dr. Camm was named the Dornoff Fellow of Teaching Excellence at the University of
Cincinnati and he was the 2006 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of Oper-
ations Research Practice. A firm believer in practicing what he preaches, he has served as
an operations research consultant to numerous companies and government agencies. From
2005 to 2010 he served as editor-in-chief of the INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics
(formerly Interfaces).

James J. Cochran. James J. Cochran is Associate Dean for Research, Professor of Applied
Statistics, and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow at The University of Alabama. Born in
Dayton, Ohio, he earned his B.S., M.S., and M.B.A. degrees from Wright State University
and a Ph.D. from the University of Cincinnati. He has been at The University of Alabama
since 2014 and has been a visiting scholar at Stanford University, Universidad de Talca, the
University of South Africa, and Pôle Universitaire Léonard de Vinci.
Professor Cochran has published over 40 papers in the development and application of
operations research and statistical methods. He has published his research in Management
Science, The American Statistician, Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods,
Annals of Operations Research, European Journal of Operational Research, Journal of
Combinatorial Optimization, Interfaces, Statistics and Probability Letters, and other profes-
sional journals. He was the 2008 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of Oper-
ations Research Practice and the 2010 recipient of the Mu Sigma Rho Statistical Education
Award. Professor Cochran was elected to the International Statistics Institute in 2005, was
named a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2011, and was named a Fellow
of INFORMS in 2017. He also received the Founders Award in 2014 and the Karl E. Peace
Award in 2015 from the American Statistical Association as well as the President’s Award
in 2018 from INFORMS. A strong advocate for effective operations research and statistics
education as a means of improving the quality of applications to real problems, Professor
Cochran has organized and chaired teaching effectiveness workshops in Uruguay, South
Africa, Colombia, India, Argentina, Kenya, Cuba, Croatia, Cameroon, Nepal, Moldova, and
Bulgaria. He has served as a statistical consultant to numerous companies and not-for profit
organizations. He served as editor-in-chief of INFORMS Transactions on Education from
2006 to 2012 and is on the editorial board of INFORMS Journal of Applied Analytics (for-
merly Interfaces), International Transactions in Operational Research, and Significance.

Michael J. Fry. Michael J. Fry is Professor of Operations, Business Analytics, and


Information Systems (OBAIS) and Academic Director of the Center for Business Ana-
lytics in the Carl H. Lindner College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. Born
in Killeen, Texas, he earned a B.S. from Texas A&M University, and M.S.E. and Ph.D.
degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been at the University of Cincinnati since
2002, where he was previously Department Head and has been named a Lindner Research
Fellow. He has also been a visiting professor at the Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School
of Management at Cornell University and the Sauder School of Business at the University
of British Columbia.
Professor Fry has published more than 25 research papers in journals such as Operations
Research, M&SOM, Transportation Science, Naval Research Logistics, IIE Transactions,
Critical Care Medicine, and Interfaces. He serves on editorial boards for journals such as
Production and Operations Management, INFORMS Journal of Applied Analytics (formerly
Interfaces), Omega, and Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. His research interests

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
About the Authors xxvii

are in applying analytics to the areas of supply chain management, sports, and public-policy
operations. He has worked with many different organizations for his research, including
Dell, Inc., Starbucks Coffee Company, Great American Insurance Group, the Cincinnati Fire
Department, the State of Ohio Election Commission, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cin-
cinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden. He was named a finalist for the Daniel H. Wagner Prize
for Excellence in Operations Research Practice, and he has been recognized for both his
research and teaching excellence at the University of Cincinnati. In 2019 he led the team that
was awarded the INFORMS UPS George D. Smith Prize on behalf of the OBAIS Depart-
ment at the University of Cincinnati.

Jeffrey W. Ohlmann. Jeffrey W. Ohlmann is Associate Professor of Business Analytics


and Huneke Research Fellow in the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa.
Born in Valentine, Nebraska, he earned a B.S. from the University of Nebraska, and M.S.
and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been at the University of Iowa
since 2003.
Professor Ohlmann’s research on the modeling and solution of decision-making problems
has produced more than two dozen research papers in journals such as Operations Research,
Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS Journal on Computing, Transportation
Science, and European Journal of Operational Research. He has collaborated with compa-
nies such as Transfreight, LeanCor, Cargill, the Hamilton County Board of Elections, and
three National Football League franchises. Because of the relevance of his work to industry,
he was bestowed the George B. Dantzig Dissertation Award and was recognized as a finalist
for the Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
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given of the origin of scrofula, which is said to be produced by the
lodgment of humors in the glands of the neck, which get into a state
of slow inflammation. Glands, the author says, are seated mostly in
parts of the body which most abound in humidities, such as the
armpits and groins, and hence such parts produce hairs. In the case
of the mesentery, however, no hairs are produced, because the
humidities here are excessive, and choke up, as it were, the seeds
of the hairs; in like manner as seeds sown in marshy grounds perish.
A very ingenious account is given of the origin of phthisis, which is
said to spring from tubercles in the lungs and matter (pus), which
corrodes the lungs when “the patients do not readily recover.” A
curious description is next given of the tabes dorsalis, “in which
disease the patient does not wish to live.” How expressive this
language is of the state of mind in the case of the unfortunates who
are subject to spermatorrhœa! The treatise concludes with some
striking remarks on the sympathy between the mammæ and uterus,
and on the influence which both exercise on the development of the
female character. Altogether the contents of this treatise are most
valuable, and may suggest important views to the medical
practitioner and physiologist, even at the present day. We need have
no hesitation in pronouncing, with regard to it, that it reflects infinite
credit on the school from which it emanated, and that it is not
unworthy of Hippocrates, although we have reason to believe that he
was not actually the author of it.

XLVIII. Περὶ φλεβῶν—On the Veins.


This is merely an excerpt from the treatise “On the Nature of the
Bones.”

XLIX. Περὶ ἰητροῦ—On the Physician.


I may mention in this place, generally, that the treatises which
follow have no ancient authority in support of them, and that, with
very few exceptions, they are also rejected by all the modern critics.
Their contents, moreover, are not of much practical importance, and
therefore I shall be very brief in my analysis of them.
The treatise in question is held to be genuine by no one critic, as
far as I know, with the exception of Foës, who appears, in part, to
sanction its claims. The object of the author is announced to be in
order to instruct the physician how to conduct matters connected
with the iatrium, that is to say, with his establishment or surgery.
Mercuriali, I may mention, is unjustly severe in his animadversions
on the exordium. (See Conringius, Introd. p. 120.) The physician
should have a healthy look himself, for the writer says, people fancy
that a person who does not keep himself in good health is not
qualified to take charge of the health of others. He should be of a
prudent disposition and a gentleman in morals.[270] Minute directions
are given respecting the site and other circumstances connected
with the iatrium: clean and soft towels are to be at hand, linen is to
be used for the eyes, and sponges for the sores. In supplying
bandages, attention is to be paid to utility rather than to display. The
surgeon should pay great attention to all matters connected with this
operation: for it is attended with much disgrace when any manual
operation does not succeed. Minute directions are given about the
performance of venesection at the arm, and mention is made of
several untoward accidents connected with it, such as the blowing
up of the vein, whereby the flow of blood is stopped; and suppuration
following as a consequence of the operation. In order to acquire
dexterity in the treatment of accidents, the author recommends the
young physician to attach himself to some foreign army; and from
this Gruner infers, that the work cannot belong to Hippocrates, as
domestic wars were but too common in his time; and there could
have been no necessity for the surgeon’s seeking foreign service in
order to gain experience. It does not occur to me, however, that
there is much force in this argument; for intervals of peace were just
as common during the long life of Hippocrates, as during the interval
between his death and the time when the Collection was made. But,
in fact, there is no necessity to seek recondite reasons for rejecting a
treatise which has no proper authority in support of it.

L. Περὶ εὐσχημοσύνης—On Decorum.


This work, like the last, has not the slightest claim to be looked
upon as genuine. Moreover, it has come down to us in a very
unsatisfactory state as regards the text, so that the meaning is often
very dark and uncertain; and I must confess that, as a general rule, I
have little inclination to spend much time in searching out a meaning,
in obscure writings, when, after it is discovered, it is not likely to
repay the exertions made in discovering it. I am always disposed to
remember the advice which Galen repeatedly gives to the student of
medicine, “to concern himself more about things than about
words.”[271] The object of the author seems to be to give general
directions with regard to decorum in the physician’s communication
with the sick. It is evidently the production of some sophist,
according to Bernard, of some one belonging to the Stoical sect. I
shall be brief in my abstract of it. A philosophical physician is equal
to a god. In the practice of medicine all the virtues relating to wisdom
are exercised; namely, contempt of money, decency, modesty,
simplicity in dress, character, judgment, quietness, accessibility,
purity of life, sententious maxims, knowledge of the purifications
which are proper and necessary in life, abstinence from lucre,
freedom from superstition, divine excellence. The physician should
keep himself aloof, and not hold much converse with the common
people, unless when necessary. The surgeon should be well
provided with all the means required in the practice of his profession,
such as dressings, medicines, instruments, and so forth, as any
deficiency in these might produce serious results. Minute directions
are given for the regulation of the physician’s address in entering the
chamber of the sick, and his conduct while there.

LI. Παραγγέλιαι—Precepts.
This little tract stands altogether in much the same circumstances
as the preceding one, that is to say, it is wholly destitute of all good
authority in its favor, and the nature of its contents is what might
rather be expected from a sophist than a practical physician. The
text, moreover, is in a most unsatisfactory state. I shall dismiss it
then with a very brief notice. It opens with an advice to the physician
not to trust to speculation but to rational experience. He ought to
learn remedies from all quarters, even from the vulgar, and not be
avaricious in his dealings with the sick, more especially if strangers
and needy. The author alludes, as Schulze thinks, to the practice
then followed by the physicians of migrating from one city to another,
and of making a public declaration of their pretensions at their first
entry into any place. These physicians were called periodeutæ. The
author of this tract advises the physician, in such a case, not to make
any vainglorious or inflated profession of his abilities. He also enjoins
the medical practitioner to look to the health of those who are free
from disease, as well as those who was indisposed.

LII. Περὶ ἀνατομῆς—On Dissection.


This small fragment of ancient anatomical science has no claim
to be regarded as the work of Hippocrates. Neither Erotian nor
Galen, nor any other ancient critic, holds it as such, and the modern
authorities are unanimous in rejecting it. That it may have been the
composition of Democritus, as suggested by Gruner, seems not
unlikely. It abounds in harsh and obsolete terms, which have never
been satisfactorily explained. Some parts of the anatomical
description are difficult to determine, as for example, “the large
bronchia which extend from the heart to the liver;” “the vena scalena,
which extends from the liver to the kidneys.” The latter passage,
however, may be supposed to refer to the emulgent vein.

LIII. Περὶ ὀδοντοφυίης—On Dentition.


This little tract is destitute of any competent evidence of its
authenticity. Some of the observations contained in it bespeak a
familiar acquaintance with the diseases of infancy. Thus it is said,
that when the bowels are loose at the term of dentition, if the
digestion be good, the children thrive, and are not subject to
convulsions. When children at the breast vomit up their food, the
bowels are constipated. When there is fever accompanying dentition,
children are seldom attacked with convulsions. But when there is
heavy sleep along with dentition, there is danger of convulsions. All
the children that are seized with convulsions at the time of dentition
do not die. Children that take food during dentition bear vomiting
best. Ulcers on the tonsils are attended with danger.

LIV. Περὶ ἐγκατοτὸμης άμβρύου—On Excision of the Fœtus.


No one stands up for the genuineness of this treatise,[272] which,
however, is not wanting in interesting matter relative to the extraction
of the fœtus in cross-presentations. For an abstract of the practice
there recommended, see Paulus Ægineta, Vol. II., p. 389, Syd.
Soc. edition. A circumstantial description is also given of the process
of succussion, the dangerous effects of which, in certain cases, are
related in the Epidemics.

LV. Περὶ ὄψιος—On Vision.


This little fragment is admitted by all the authorities to be
spurious. It contains a description of glaucoma, for which purging of
the head and the application of the actual cautery are recommended,
and also in certain cases venesection. In epidemic ophthalmy,
purging both of the head and bowels is recommended.

LVI. Περὶ ὀστέων φύσιος—On the Nature of the Bones.


M. Littré has very ingeniously shown that this work is a
compilation made up of fragments of other works, and thus he has
announced his intention of excluding it altogether from the
Hippocratic Collection. Certain it is, beyond all dispute, that the
treatise is not the production of Hippocrates himself. The following
are a few of the most notable things which I have observed in it. “It
appears to me that what we call heat is immortal, and that it
understands, sees, hears, and perceives all things that are and will
be.” The heat, it is further said, is the origin of all movement in
animals. This will be recognized as the original of the doctrine of the
Calidum innatum, which figures in the works of our earlier
physiologists in modern times. See the works of Harvey and the
other physiologists of the seventeenth century; also what is said on
this subject in the next section. The aorta and vena cava are
correctly described, the one as an artery, the other as a vein; and
their origin from the ventricles of the heart is noticed. The author
states (p. 440, ed. Kühn), that he had known cases of attempted
suicide in which the windpipe had been opened, and yet death did
not ensue; only while the opening remained the person lost the
power of speaking. See No. XLV.

LVII. Περὶ κρισίων—On the Crises.


This tract has no ancient authority whatever in support of it, and
Foës, Gruner, and Littré concur in holding it to be a compilation from
other Hippocratic treatises, more especially the Aphorisms and
Prognostics. This, indeed, must be obvious to every person who
reads it with any attention.

LVIII. Περὶ κρισίμων—On Critical Days.


This treatise stands in the same predicament as the preceding
one, that is to say, it has no ancient authority in support of it; indeed
Galen declares against it when he says that Hippocrates had not
given any work on the Critical Days. (Tom. iii., p. 440; ed. Basil.) It is
manifestly a compilation from the other treatises, more especially
from those “On Internal Diseases” and “On Diseases.” Still it appears
to me to be an interesting and well-written compilation. For example,
it would be difficult to point out in any other work, ancient or modern,
a better description of pneumonia than is given towards the
conclusion of it. Tetanus also is accurately described. To be sure,
Gruner infers, from the circumstance that three varieties of this
disease are described, that the work in question must have
emanated from the Cnidian school. But Aretæus, and, indeed, all the
ancient authorities that treat of tetanus, describe three varieties of
this disease; and therefore this is no good reason for excluding it
from the Coan school.

LIX. Περὶ φαρμάκων—On Purgative Medicines.


Though it must be admitted that this little fragment can boast of
no competent authorities to establish its claim to be placed among
the genuine works of Hippocrates, it bears undoubted marks of
having been written by some person well acquainted with his
principles, and having no ordinary acquaintance with professional
matters. Thus the author states very correctly the effects of
idiosyncrasy in modifying the operation both of purgatives and
emetics, and advises the physician to make inquiry beforehand what
effects such medicines, if formerly taken, had produced on the
patient; for, he adds, it would be a disgraceful casualty to occasion a
man’s death by the administration of a purgative medicine. He also
interdicts the administration of purgatives during the heat of a fever,
and during the very hot seasons of the year. These practical rules
appear to me to be highly important, and yet how frequently do we
see them disregarded! At the time we have mentioned, the author
prudently remarks that it is safer to administer a clyster.

LX. Περὶ ἑλλεβορισμοῦ—On the Administration of Hellebore.


This little tract is usually published among the Epistolæ, and, as a
matter of course, it has no evidence in support of its genuineness
further than they have, which, as we shall presently see, is very
slender. It contains, however, very acute and important observations
on the administration of hellebore, to which it is well known that the
Hippocratists were very partial. But these are mostly extracted from
the Aphorisms, and need not be noticed in this place. The Book of
Prognostics also is quoted, but seemingly by mistake.

LXI. Ἐπιστολαι—The Epistles.


No scholar can require to be informed that, since the memorable
controversy in this country between the Honorable C. Boyle and the
celebrated Dr. Bentley, respecting the authenticity of the Epistles
which bear the name of Phalaris, the whole of the “Epistolæ
Græcanicæ” have been generally condemned as spurious. Against
this judgment I have no intention to protest; but I may be allowed to
remark that many ancient works which are usually acknowledged as
genuine have not so much external evidence in their favor as these
Epistles possess. The Epistles ascribed to Plato, for example, are
quoted as genuine by Cicero,[273] and by Diogenes Laertius.[274]
Those of Hippocrates, too, are quoted and recognized by Erotian,
Soranus, and other ancient authorities. Still, however, as I have
stated, I have no intention to stand up against the general opinion of
scholars from the Scaligers down to the present time, by which they
have been condemned as supposititious; only I contend that, as it is
admitted on all hands that they are very ancient,[275] that is to say,
that they must have been composed within less than a hundred
years after the death of Hippocrates, it is utterly incredible that the
Sophists who wrote them, whether for a fraudulent purpose that they
might derive profit from them by passing them off for the productions
of the great name they bear, or whether for the purpose of displaying
their own skill in sustaining an assumed character, should have
made them turn upon alleged occurrences in the life of Hippocrates
which every person at that early period must have been able to
judge whether they were fictitious or not. I see no reason, then, to
doubt that the main facts to which these Epistles relate are real,
although the Epistles themselves be supposititious.[276]

Having thus stated my opinion of these Epistles in general terms,


I shall now dismiss them with a very brief notice.
They are differently arranged by modern authorities; I shall follow
M. Littré in the few remarks which I have to offer upon them.
The first series of these Epistles relates to the services which
Hippocrates is said to have rendered to the people of Athens during
the time of the memorable plague. The spuriousness of these, it is
generally held, is proved beyond all doubt by the silence of
Thucydides with regard to any such professional services rendered
by Hippocrates on the occasion; and no doubt if it were maintained
that these took place at the outbreak of the disease in Greece, that is
to say, at the commencement of the Peloponnesian war, the
inference would be most legitimate. But if we be permitted to
suppose that, as the plague is known to have lurked about in
different parts of Greece for a considerable time, the services of
Hippocrates did not take place until several years afterwards, there
is nothing in the story which bears the slightest air of falsehood, even
if we adhere to the common chronology respecting the birth of our
author. Indeed, I repeat, if the Sophist who composed these letters
had founded them on tales which everybody knew to be false, he
could never have hoped to impose upon the learned men of the next
generation, and make his forgeries pass for genuine.
The second series relates to Democritus, and these must be
admitted to be the most interesting of the whole group. Now that
Hippocrates visited Abdera, and that he was familiarly acquainted
with Democritus, are facts which the most sceptical critic will hardly
venture to call in question.[277] But that the Epistles themselves were
not written by the physician and philosopher whose name they bear,
I readily admit to be probable. Most undoubtedly the letter of
Hippocrates, in which he is made to describe his visit to Democritus,
however full it may be of curious matters, is written in a style and
manner very unlike the well-known characters of the true writings of
Hippocrates.
Third. The short letter inscribed from Hippocrates to his son
Thessalus, contains nothing from which its authenticity or the
contrary could be legitimately inferred, only it is destitute of all
ancient authority in its favor. In it the father recommends to the son
the study of geometry and arithmetic, as a proper preparation to the
study of medicine.
Fourth. This series, consisting of “The Oration at the Altar,” “The
Decree of the Athenians,” and “The Oration of Thessalus, son of
Hippocrates,” although now generally regarded as spurious, possess
more direct evidence in their favor than any of the others. In fact,
they are decidedly recognized as genuine by Erotian. The
documents in question have all reference to the services of
Hippocrates and his disciples in the pestilence which pervaded
Greece during the Peloponnesian war. These services are alluded to
by many ancient authorities, as we have shown in the Commentary
on Paulus Ægineta, Book II., § 35. In conclusion, I repeat that,
supported as the main facts referred to in these documents are by
the highest testimony which antiquity can furnish, I cannot but regard
the facts as true, although the documents themselves be given up as
supposititious.

I will now briefly recapitulate the general results of the


investigations on which I have been occupied in the present section:
1. That all the authorities, ancient and modern, who have
investigated the question regarding the genuineness of the works
which have come down to us under the name of Hippocrates, are
agreed that a considerable portion of them are not the productions of
the author himself.
2. That it is almost universally admitted that the following
treatises are genuine, viz.:
The Prognostics.
On Airs, etc.
On Regimen in Acute Diseases.
Seven of the Books of Aphorisms.
Epidemics I. and III.
On the Articulations.
On Fractures.
On the Instruments of Reduction.
The Oath.

3. That the following treatises may be pretty confidently


acknowledged as genuine, although the evidence in their favor is not
so strong as it is with regard to the preceding list:—
On Ancient Medicine.
On the Surgery.
The Law.
On Ulcers.
On Fistulæ.
On Hemorrhoids.
On the Sacred Disease.

4. That as it certainly appears that the Book of Prognostics is


composed, in a great measure, from the contents of the First
“Prorrhetics” and the “Coacæ Prænotiones,” there can be little or no
doubt that these two treatises are more ancient than the time of
Hippocrates.
5. That although the exact time at which the Collection, as it now
stands, was made out has never been determined in a very
satisfactory manner, an examination of the contents of the different
treatises leads to the conclusion that most of them represent pretty
faithfully the opinions held by the family of Hippocrates and his
immediate successors in the Coan school of medicine.
6. That a few of them, and more especially the two important
works “On Internal Affections,” and “On Diseases,” would appear to
bear distinct traces of having emanated from the contemporary
school of Cnidos.
7. That although the Epistles and certain public documents
usually published at the end of the Collection may justly be
suspected of being spurious, there is undoubted evidence that they
are of very ancient date, and were composed, most probably, within
less than a hundred years after the death of Hippocrates, so that
there is every reason for believing that they relate to real events in
the life of our author, and not to fictitious as some have supposed.
SECTION III.

ON THE PHYSICAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE ANCIENTS, AND MORE ESPECIALLY THEIR


DOCTRINES WITH REGARD TO THE ELEMENTS.

As it is impossible to understand properly the medical theories


which occur in the Hippocratic treatises without a competent
acquaintance with the Physical Philosophy of the ancients, I have
thought it necessary to devote an entire chapter to an exposition of
the tenets held by the philosophers regarding the elements of things.
I might have been able to dispense with this labor provided there had
been any modern publication to which I could refer the reader for the
necessary information on the subject in question; but, unfortunately,
there is no work in the English language, as far as I am aware, in
which the nature of the ancient doctrines is properly described. To
give an example in point: Dr. Watson, the bishop of Llandaff, in his
essay “On the Transmutability of Water into Earth,” makes the
following remarks on the ancient doctrine concerning the elements:
“If but one particle of water can, by any means, be changed into a
particle of earth, the whole doctrine of the Peripatetic sect
concerning the elements of things will be utterly subverted: the
diversities of bodies subsisting in the universe will no longer be
attributed to the different combinations of earth, air, fire, and water,
as distinct, immutable principles, but to the different magnitudes,
figures, and arrangements of particles of matter of the same
kind.”[278]
Now it will at once be perceived by any person who is at all
acquainted with modern science, that if the ancient dogmata be as
here represented, they are altogether destitute of any solid
foundation in truth and nature, and we may well wonder that such a
baseless structure should have endured for so long a period. But
before passing this severe judgment on the tenets of our great
forefathers in philosophy, it will be well to investigate their doctrines
more accurately than Dr. Watson appears to have done in this
instance.
In pursuing the present investigation, I shall, in the first place,
give literal translations of extracts from the works of the most
celebrated sects of philosophers; namely, the Pythagoreans,
Platonists, Peripatetics, Stoics, and Epicureans. It will, of course, be
readily perceived, from what I have now stated, that I do not mean to
confine my inquiry to the period of ancient philosophy which
preceded Hippocrates, but that I am to bring it down to a pretty late
age. This course I find it indispensably necessary to follow, as I could
not derive sufficient illustration of the subject were I to restrict myself
to the works of the earlier philosophers, who either preceded our
author or were his contemporaries. I shall first give the extracts by
themselves, and then make some remarks in illustration of the
doctrines which they expound. I think it proper to mention further,
that I am answerable for the correctness of the translations in all
cases, unless where it is otherwise stated.
THE PYTHAGOREANS.

“Fire being compressed produces air, and air water, and water
earth: and from earth the same circuit of changes takes place till we
come to fire.”[279]
“In that part of the universe where Nature and Generation exert
their powers, it is necessary that there should be these three things:
In the first place, that thing which being tangible furnishes a body to
everything which comes into existence. This is the universal recipient
and substance of impression for things generated, bearing the same
relation to things which are generated from them that water does to
juice, and silence to sound, and darkness to light, and materials to
the things fabricated from them. For water is void of taste and
quality, bearing the same relation to sweet and bitter, and to sharp
and salt. The air is unformed as to sound, or speech, or melody. And
darkness is devoid of color and shape, and bears the same relation
towards bright, and yellow, and white. But white bears reference also
both to the statuary art and that which forms figures of wax. But
matter admits of another comparison with the art of statuary. For all
things exist in it potentially before they are made, but actually after
they are made and have received their nature. In order, therefore,
that there should be generation, it is necessary that there should be
some one substance as a substratum. In the second place there are
the contraries, in order that they may be changes and
transmutations, the primary matter undergoing passion and affection,
in order that the qualities (or powers, δυναμεις), being mutually
passive, may not destroy, nor be destroyed, by one another. These
(the contraries) are, heat and cold, moisture and dryness. In the third
place are those substances in which these powers reside, namely,
fire and water, air and earth. For these differ from the powers
(qualities?) For the substances are consumed in place by one
another, but the powers are neither consumed nor formed, for they
are the incorporeal reasons of these.[280] Of these four, heat and
cold are causes, and active; but dryness and humidity are as the
materials, and passive. In the first place there is matter, the universal
recipient, for it is the common subject (or substratum) of all things, so
that it is the first sensible body in potentiality, and the original of all
things: next are the contraries, such as heat and cold, moisture and
dryness; and in the third place there are fire, water, earth, and air:
these all change into one another, but the contraries do not
change.”[281]
The primary matter is afterwards defined to be “the subject body,
that which receives all the changes, the universal recipient, and that
which potentially is the first to the touch.”[282]
“The first principles of all created things are the substratum,
matter, and the reason of shape; namely, form. The bodies are their
offspring, namely, fire, air, earth, water.”[283]
“Pythagoras taught that the original of all things is the monad,
that from the monad sprung the duad, which is the subject matter to
the efficient monad: that from the monad and infinite duad were
formed the numbers: from the numbers the points; from them the
lines, from these figures of superficies; from the superficies the solid
figures; from these the solid bodies, of which are the elements, fire,
water, earth, air:—that from these, changed and converted into every
shape, is formed the world, which is animated, intelligent, of a
spherical shape, comprehending in its middle the earth, which also is
spherical and inhabited all round.[284]
“Pythagoras said, that none of the elements is pure, for that earth
contains fire, and fire air, and water air, etc.”[285]
“Nor those which elements we call abide,
Nor to this figure, nor to that are ty’d:
For this eternal world is said of old
But four prolific principles to hold,
Four different bodies: two to heaven ascend,
And other two down to the centre tend:
Fire first with wings expanded mounts on high,
Pure, void of weight, and dwells in upper sky:
Then air, because unclogged, in empty space
Flies after fire, and claims the second place;
But weighty water, as her nature guides,
Lies on the lap of earth; and mother Earth subsides.
All things are mixed of these, which all contain,
And into these are all resolved again:
Earth rarefies to dew; expanding more
The subtile dew in air begins to soar:
Spreads as she flies and weary of the name,
Extenuates still and changes into flame.
Thus having by degrees perfection won,
Restless they soon untwist the web they spun.
And fire begins to lose her radiant hue,
Mix’d with gross air, and air descends in dew:
And dew condensing does her form forego
And sinks a heavy lump of earth below,
Thus are their figures never at a stand,
But changed by Nature’s innovating hand.”[286]

THE PLATONISTS.

“Let us therefore say that the mother, or receptacle of every


visible, nay of every sensible production, is neither earth, nor air, nor
fire, nor water, nor any of the things which arise out of these, nor out
of which these arise, but a certain invisible and formless being, the
universal recipient, concerning which being, if we say that it is in a
very dubious way intelligible, and something most hard to be
apprehended, we shall not speak false.”[287]
The primary matter “admits of everything, but partakes of no
shape nor resemblance to anything which enters into it. It is the
substance of impression[288] to everything in nature, being moved
and altered by those things which enter into it (the forms?), and by
their means it appears sometimes one thing and sometimes
another.”[289]
“In the first place, we see that which we call water, being
compressed, become stones and earth. But being dissolved and
expanded, it becomes breath and air. Air, by combustion, is
converted into fire, which, being compressed and extinguished,
assumes its original form. Fire and air meeting together, and being
condensed, become cloud and vapor; and from the condensation of
these, running water is formed. And from water again, earth and
stones are formed.”[290]
Plato taught “that God, matter, and form, are the originals of all
things:—that matter is increate and incorruptible, neither fire, nor
water, nor any of the principles nor elements, but a substance
capable of form and subject to fabrication: that when rude and
deprived of every quality of configuration, God, the artificer, formed
the universe from it. He taught, that matter is the original of all
bodies, that it was stamped with the impression of forms, and hence
were produced the elements, namely, fire, water, earth, and air.”[291]
“Earth contains water, and water, as some suppose, carries
earth: air is formed from water, and from dense air fire is
formed.”[292]
“There being four kinds of bodies, by the mutual changes of them
the nature of the world is preserved. For water is formed from earth,
and air from water, and ether from air: and then inversely, from ether,
air; from air, water; and from water, earth, which is lowest in the
scale.”[293]
“Those who have investigated matter, if they have formed any
right conception of it, have agreed in considering it as the subject
and receptacle of forms.”[294]
“Concerning the receptacle of bodies this may be said. In the first
place, that there must be a certain substratum to bodies different
from themselves, is demonstrated by the transmutation of the
elements into one another. For that which is changed is not
altogether consumed, or, if it is, a substance is changed into a non-
entity. And neither has that which is born come into existence from
nothing, but it has undergone a change from one form into another.
For something remains which has received the new form and cast off
the other. And this is shown by destruction, for it applies only to a
compound body; and, if this be true, every such body is compounded
of matter and form. Induction bears testimony to the truth of this, by
showing, that whatever is dissolved was compounded; and analysis
in the same manner, as, for example, if a phial be resolved into gold,
and gold into water; and water, in like manner, when it perishes,
requires to be something analogous. But the elements must be
either form, or primary matter, or a compound of form and matter.
But they cannot be form, for without matter, how could they be
possessed of bulk and magnitude? But they are not primary matter,
for it is not consumed. It follows, then, that they must consist of form
and the primary matter. But form regards quality and shape, but it
(the primary matter) pertains to the subject which is indeterminate,
(ἀόριστον or ἀόρατον) because it is not form.”[295]
“Matter of itself is devoid of form, matter is the subject of all
things.”[296]
“The followers of Plato and Aristotle are of opinion, that there is a
difference between the first principles and the elements. For, the
elements are compounded, but the first principles are not
compounded nor formed from any thing. What we call the elements
are fire, air, earth, and water; but we call that a principle which has
nothing from which it is formed, since otherwise it is not a principle,
but that from which it is formed. But there is something antecedent to
water and earth, from which they are formed; namely, the first matter
which is devoid of shape and form; then there is form (which we call
entelocheia) and privation.”[297]
“Plato, wishing to prove that the elements have one common
matter as a substratum to all, in his ‘Timæus,’ enters into a
discussion regarding their transmutation into one another. But he
being well acquainted with the art of demonstration, has treated
properly of the change of the first bodies into one another. But
Thales, Anaximenes, Anaximander, and Heraclitus, assuming each
that there is some one element, endeavor to prove this from their
changing into one another. Yet all these seem to me to have had an
obscure idea (ὀνειράττειν) of some matter, which is a common
substratum to all the elements, and seeing that it is single they
supposed that there is but one element. But instead of saying that
this is a common element from which the others, I mean air, fire,
water, and earth, are formed, they passed it over altogether and
endeavored to demonstrate the same thing of some one of the
elements, all proceeding upon the same mode of demonstration,
although they did not all make choice of the same element.”[298]
“With regard to the old philosophers, called physical, it will be
obvious to us when we read their writings on Nature, that they held
the existence of a first matter which is increate and eternal, being the
substratum to all created and perceptible things.”[299]
“That the elements change into one another is admitted, even by
the followers of Thales, it being so apparent. Hence it is inferred that
the elements have one common matter for a substratum.”[300]
Philo, the platonic Jew of Alexandria, in his treatise “On the
Creation of the World,” thus expresses his opinions regarding the
original state of matter. “Whoever would wish to discover the cause
why this universe was framed, would not be far from the truth, in my
opinion, if he said with one of the ancients, that the Father and
Maker of it is good, and for that reason he spared not to impart of his
most excellent nature to a substance having nothing beautiful in
itself, but possessing the capacity of becoming all things. Of itself it
was devoid of form, quality, and life; and was full of contrariety,
confusion, and dissonance.”
“Moses, the chief of philosophers, and instructed in many of the
most comprehensive secrets of Nature by oracles, was aware that it
was most necessary that there should be in the universe an active
cause and a passive subject. That the active is the most pure and
perfect soul of the universe, more excellent than virtue, more
excellent than knowledge, more excellent than even goodness and
beauty. That the passive is of itself without life and motion, but being
moved and figured, and enlivened by mind, it was changed into a
most perfect work.”[301]
His opinion regarding the elements may be collected from the
following passages:—“Fire being extinguished is converted into thick
air, and air being compressed subsides into water, and water being
still more compressed is changed into earth, the densest of the
elements.”[302]
“Nothing that is pure can be comprehended by the senses.”[303]
“The elements are inanimate matter, of itself devoid of motion,
and subjected to the artificer, by whom it is transformed into all kinds
of shapes and qualities.”[304]
I shall venture to give under this head the opinions of one of the
Arabian medical authors.
“It is to be kept in mind that the elements which are perceived by
the senses, namely, fire, air, earth, and water, are by no means the
pure elements, but such as are comprehended by the mind. These
are not to be perceived by the senses. None of the others is pure,
nor without some admixture.”[305]
THE PERIPATETICS.

Aristotle defines the first matter as follows: “I call matter the first
subject of everything, all things being formed from it existing in them
not accidentally; and when anything is destroyed, it comes to this at
last.”[306]
In his Logical work he thus defines his ideas regarding the first
substances, namely, mind and matter. “The first substances being
the subjects of all other things, and as every other thing may be
predicated by them and exists in them, are called the prime
substances.[307] “We must distinguish the first bodies from matter,
for we must suppose concerning them that they have a first principle
and origin, namely, matter, which is inseparable from them, and is
the subject of the contraries. For heat does not furnish the materials
to cold, nor it to heat, but the subject to both. So that we have first
the sensible body in potentiality, the first principle; then we have the
contraries, I mean cold and heat; and thirdly, fire and water, and the
like. These change into one another, and not as Empedocles and
others say of them.[308]
“The material of all bodies, great and small, is the same. This is
apparent; for when air is formed from water, the same matter, when it
becomes another thing, acquires nothing new, only that which
formerly existed in capacity now exists actually.”[309]
The following extracts will show the opinions of his most
celebrated commentators:
“Air and fire have one common character, namely, heat; therefore
they readily change into one another. Air and water readily change
into one another, for they have a common character, namely,
moisture. In like manner, water and earth, for they have an alliance,
namely, coldness.”[310]
“The physical philosophers analyze any substance, as, for
example, a man into head, hands, and feet; and these into bones,
flesh, and nerves; and these into the four elements; and these again
into matter and form.”[311]
“Water is formed from air, and air from water, and fire from air,
because they all have one common substratum, matter.”[312]
The next two extracts will show the opinions entertained by
Aristotle’s successor in the Peripatetic school of philosophy.
“Of the simple substances, fire has peculiar powers. For air,
water, and earth, admit only of changes into one another, but none of
them can produce itself.”[313]

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