PROBABILITY
Report Submitted By
SAYAN PAN
FOR CA2
UNIVERSITY ROLL NO :-
10701621018
COLLEGE ROLL NO :- EE/21/30
BRANCH :- ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
SEMESTER :- 3rd
PAPER NAME :- MATHEMATICS III
PAPER CODE :- BS-M 301
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT , KOLAGHAT
YEAR :- 2022
INTRODUCTION :-
The probability of an event is
the ratio of a number of cases favorable to it
, to the number of all cases possible when
nothing leads us to expect that any one of
these cases should occur more than any
other , which renders them , for us , equally
possible.
RANDOM EXPERIMENT:-
It is an experiment in which the result is not known before hand.
Example :- (i) Tossing a coin.
(ii) Throwing a die.
SAMPLE SPACE :-
All possible results of a random experiment.
For,Tossing a coin, S={H,T}
For,Throwing a die,S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
EVENT(E):-
It is the subset of the sample space ‘S’.
Probability (P(E)) :- P(E) = |E| / |S|.
If a coin is toss twice.Then what is the probability that (a) one head
occurs (b) no head occurs (c) at least one head occurs?
Ans. R.E – Tossing a coin twice.
S={HH,HT,TH,TT}
|S| = 4
(a)E={HT,TH}
|E|=2
P(E)=|E|/|S|=2/4=1/2
(b)E={TT}
|E|=1
P(E)=|E|/|S|=1/4
(c)E={HH,HT,TH}
|E|=3
P(E)=|E|/|S|=3/4
RE :-Throwing a die.
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let,A={2,4,6}
P(A)=|A|/|S|=3/6=1/2
A’(Complement of A)=S\A={1,3,5}
P(A’)=|A’|/|S|=3/6=1/2
P(A’)=1/2=1-1/2=1-P(A)
So, P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
In this picture , A={1,2,3}
B={2,3,5}
A & B=A∩B={2,3}
P(A&B)=P(A∩B)=|A∩ 𝐵|/|S|=2/5
A or B = A∪B={1,2,3,5}
P(A or B)=P(A∪ 𝐵) =|A∪B|/|S|=4/5
Suppose,S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A={1,2,4,5} A∪B={1,2,3,4,5}
B={2,3,5} A∩B={2,5}
P(A)=|A|/|S|=4/6 , P(B)=|B|/|S|=3/6 ,P(A∪B)=|A∪B|/|S|=5/6 ,
P(A∩B)=|A∩B|/|S|=2/6
P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B)=4/6+3/6-2/6=5/6=P(A∪B)
So, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B)
Two events A & B Are called mutually exclusive if A∩B =∅,then what
is the probability of P(A∪B) ?
Ans. P(A∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (∅) = |∅|/|S|=0/|S|=0
Let,A&B are mutually exclusive events , then
P(A∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= P(A)+P(B)-0
So, P(A∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
AXIOMATIC DEFINATION OF PROBABILITY:-
Positivity :-P(A)≥0 ,where A is an event.[P(A)=|A|/|S|]
Normalization :-P(S)=1 ,where S is the sample space.
[p(s)=|s|/|s|=1]
Addition :- P(A∪ 𝐵)=P(A)+P(B),where A&B are two
mutually exclusive events.
If the above three properties are satisfied then P( ) is called the probability function.
Example :- R.E-Tossing a coin.
S={H,T,}
P(H)=0.4, P(T)=0.6
(a)P(H)=0.4≥0
(b)P(S)=P(H)+P(T)=0.4+0.6=1
(c)P(H∪ 𝑇) =P(H)+P(T)
So, it is a probability function.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF PROBABILITY
The probability of getting:-
(a)Three tails.
(b)Exactly two heads.
(c)At least two heads.
Ans.(a) Let S be the sample space & A be the event of
getting 3 tails.
n(S)=8, n(A)=1 P(A)=1/8
(b) Let B be the event of getting exactly 2 heads.
n(S)=8, n(B)=3 P(B)=3/8
(c) Let C be the event of getting at least 2 heads.
n(S)=8, n(C)=4 P(C) = 4/8 = 1/2
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY :-
S={1,2,3,4,5}
A={1,2,3},B={2,3,5}
P(A/B)=|A∩B|/|B|=2/3,P(B/A)=|A∩B|/|A|=2/3
P(A)=|A|/|S|=3/5 , P(B)=|B|/|S|=3/5.
P(A∩B)=|A∩B|/|S|=2/5
P(A).P(B/A)=3/5×2/3 = 2/5
P(B).P(A/B)=3/5×2/3 = 2/5
So, P(A∩B)=P(A).P(B/A)=P(B).P(A/B)
LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY :-
A person has undertaken a mining job.The probabilities of
completion of the job on time with & without rain are 0.42
&0.90 respectively.If the probability that it will rain is
0.45,then determine the probability that the mining job will be
completed on time.
Ans. Let A be the event that the mining job will be completed on
time &B be the event that it rains.We have,
P(B)=0.45, P(no rain)=P(B’)=1-P(B)=1-0.45=0.55
By multiplications law of probability,
P(A/B)=0.42 P(A/B’)=0.90
Since,events B &B’ form partitions of the sample space S ,by total
probability theorem,we have
P(A)=P(B).P(A/B)+P(B’).P(A/B’)
=0.45× 0.42 × 0.55 × 0.90 = 0.189+0.495 = 0.684
So,the probability that the job will be completed on the time is
0.684.
BLOOM’S LEVEL OF TAXONOMY (BL) :-
(i)Remembering
(ii)Understanding
(iii)Applying
Definition (Conditional probability)
P(A/B)=P(A∩B)/P(B) [BL – L1]
Then,Suppose S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A={1,2,3} B={3,4,5}
P(A/B)=(1/6)/(3/6)=1/3 [BL – L2]
Hence,A box contains 2 red & 3 green balls.Two ball are taken
randomly.If the 2nd ball is green.What is the probability that 1st ball
is also green ?
Ans. P(G2)=3/4 × 1/2 = 3/8
P(G1∩G2)= 3/5 × 1/2 = 3/10
P(G1/G2)=P(G1∩G2)/P(G2)
=(3/10 )÷ (3/8)
=8/10
