Week-1 Content-2
Week-1 Content-2
Behavioural finance operates on the premise that individuals' investment decisions and market
results are consistently influenced by the information structure and characteristics of market
participants. The cognitive process does not operate in a manner analogous to that of a machine.
In contrast, the human brain frequently employs cognitive heuristics and emotional biases to
analyse information. These mechanisms exert an influence on financial decision makers,
leading to behaviours that may appear illogical, deviating from conventional risk aversion
principles, and exhibiting predictable flaws in their forecasting abilities. These issues are
prevalent in the decision-making processes of investors, the functioning of financial markets,
and the behaviour of corporate managers. The consequences of making poor financial decisions
have implications for the effectiveness of capital markets, individual wealth, and corporate
success.
Standard finance, also known as traditional or classical finance, is grounded on the underlying
assumption that individuals and markets function in a rational and efficient manner. This
framework offers a theoretical basis for comprehending financial markets and formulating
investment strategies by incorporating key ideas such as rational expectations, efficient
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markets, and the risk-return relationship. The following are fundamental ideas and concepts in
the field of standard finance:
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between traditional finance and behavioural finance enhances the depth of
comprehension regarding financial markets and the behaviour of investors.
The field of behavioural finance emerged from social psychology and is concerned with
the human side of decision-making. There have been influential works written on this
subject beginning in the 18th century, including Adam Smith's “Theory of Moral
Sentiments” (1759) and “Wealth of Nations” (1776). These studies by Smith
highlighted the existence of an "invisible hand," referring to the moral compass within
individuals that influences their choices in social, economic, and financial matters. The
emphasis lies in sentiments like pride, shame, insecurity, and egotism as key factors in
decision-making. In relation to the psychological dimensions of utility function, a
modern scholar, Kahneman, & Thaler, (1991) draws attention to the notion that human
pursuit of happiness renders it unlikely for them to make completely emotion-free
decisions.
The theoretical framework of behavioral finance rests on three pillars: cognitive psychology,
behavioral econometrics, and neuroeconomics.
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excitement and disappointment responses in the brain are associated with risky choice
preferences.
By integrating these three strands, behavioral finance offers a richer understanding of investor
behavior than traditional financial theories. Its insights have far-reaching implications for
areas such as portfolio management, risk management, financial literacy programs, and
public policy.
Heuristics
Heuristics, commonly known as rules of thumb, are methods used to minimize the
cognitive resources required to solve an issue. Cognitive heuristics are cognitive
processes that streamline the typically intricate procedures involved in forming
judgments. Decision makers sometimes encounter a range of options characterized by
significant ambiguity and a limited capacity to accurately assess the probabilities
associated with their outcomes. Academic researchers persist in the ongoing endeavour
to discover, reconcile, and comprehend the various heuristics that have the potential to
influence the process of financial decision making. Nevertheless, there exist several
well-known heuristic concepts, including emotion, representativeness, availability,
anchoring and adjustment, familiarity, overconfidence, status quo, loss and regret
aversion, ambiguity aversion, conservatism, and mental accounting. Heuristics are
highly appropriate for facilitating decision-making processes within this particular
context.
Framing
The term "framing" pertains to the manner in which information is presented or framed,
exerting a substantial impact on persons' perception and interpretation of this
information. The framing effect refers to a cognitive bias in which individuals exhibit
varying responses to a given decision according on the manner in which it is presented.
The notion discussed holds significant importance within the fields of behavioural
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economics and behavioural finance, as it underscores the influence of communication
and presentation on the process of decision-making.
Emotions
The function of emotions in human decision-making is of paramount importance as
they exert influence over behaviour, perception, and responses to diverse situations.
The underlying belief argues that the intricate and nuanced manner in which our
emotions shape psychological reality has an impact on financial decisions and could
perhaps elucidate the occurrence of periodic market disruptions. In the realm of
behavioural economics and finance, it is vital to comprehend the significance of
emotions, as they can offer valuable insights into the reasons for individuals' departure
from logical or rational decision-making.
Market impact
To what extent do the cognitive errors and biases exhibited by individuals and groups
impact the functioning of markets and the determination of market prices?
Undoubtedly, one of the first appeals of the emerging discipline of behavioural finance
was from the observation that market prices exhibited a lack of fairness. To put it
another, the presence of market anomalies sparked a keen interest in exploring the
potential explanations rooted in the field of psychology. According to conventional
finance theory, it is posited that investor errors would not have an impact on market
prices. This is due to the belief that in instances where prices vary from their intrinsic
value, rational traders would capitalize on the mispricing in order to generate personal
gains.
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models. The presence of anomalies, like as momentum and value effects, poses a
challenge to the underlying assumptions of efficient markets.
2. Understanding Investor Behaviour: Behavioural finance offers valuable insights
into the ways in which psychological factors and cognitive biases exert an influence
on the behaviour of investors. Comprehending these variables is crucial in
forecasting market patterns, bubbles, and crashes.
3. Enhancing Investment Decision-Making: Investors have the potential to derive
advantages from the field of behavioural finance through the identification and
reduction of cognitive biases that have the potential to result in less than optimum
investing choices. The enhancement of decision-making can be facilitated through
the cultivation of awareness about biases, such as overconfidence and loss aversion.
4. Risk management: The field of behavioural finance enhances our comprehension
of risk perception and risk-taking behaviour. Understanding this information is
crucial for the development of efficient risk management methods in financial
markets.
5. Critique of Market Efficiency: Behavioural finance presents a critical perspective
on the concept of market efficiency, positing that markets may not consistently and
promptly incorporate all accessible information. The aforementioned findings have
significant consequences for the conventional efficient market hypothesis.
6. Interdisciplinary Perspectives: Behavioural finance incorporates principles and
perspectives derived from disciplines such as psychology, sociology, and other
related social sciences. The incorporation of an interdisciplinary approach enhances
the area by encompassing a wider array of aspects that exert effect on the process
of financial decision-making.
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economics and has found practical utility in comprehending decision-making in diverse
areas such as finance, marketing, and public policy. This perspective offers a more
comprehensive and intricate understanding of how individuals evaluate and react to
uncertain outcomes, encompassing psychological elements that are frequently
disregarded by standard economic models.
Cognitive Biases
Cognitive biases refer to consistent patterns of divergence from established norms or
rationality in the process of judgment. These biases frequently result in perceptual
distortion, erroneous interpretation, illogical reasoning, or more broadly, behaviours
that might be classified as irrational. Biases have the potential to influence decision-
making, problem-solving, and information processing, resulting in humans making
choices that depart from perfectly rational conclusions. A comprehensive grasp of these
cognitive biases is crucial for individuals involved in investment, policy-making, and
decision-making across diverse domains. By acknowledging these biases, individuals
can enhance their decision-making processes by reducing the influence of erroneous
judgment, leading to better informed and sensible choices.
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downturn in the tech sector. This biased thinking can hinder diversification and lead to
poor portfolio choices.
3. Framing Effects: Framing effects illustrate how the presentation of identical
information can influence investors' perceptions and actions. Consider a scenario where
two financial advisors, David and Emily, offer contrasting recommendations to their
clients regarding a risky stock. David frames the opportunity positively, saying, "This
stock has a 70% chance of gaining 20% in the next quarter!" On the other hand, Emily
emphasizes potential losses, stating, "There's a 30% probability that the stock will
decline by 10%." Although the expected returns and probabilities are equivalent,
David's framing might elicit greater enthusiasm among clients due to the positivity bias.
Such differing responses could result from the way our brains encode gains and losses
independently, as mentioned earlier in prospect theory.
4. Hindsight Bias: Hindsight bias manifests when individuals believe, after an event
occurs, that they would have predicted it, even if they had no way of knowing it
beforehand. Nick, a seasoned investor, boasts to his friends, "I knew the housing market
was going to crash in 2008; I just had a feeling." However, there's little evidence that
he actually held such beliefs at the time or took appropriate defensive measures. His
confidence in hindsight stems from the availability heuristic, which leads him to
overestimate the predictability of rare events. Hindsight bias can mislead investors into
believing false narratives or oversimplifying complex situations, compromising their
abilities to make informed investment decisions.
5. Representative Bias: Another cognitive bias that influences investor judgment is the
representative bias. This bias causes investors to classify new information based on
preexisting mental categories or prototypes rather than objective criteria. Sarah, a value
investor, tends to ignore companies with high P/E ratios, labeling them as "overvalued
growth stocks." She gravitates towards firms with low multiples, deeming them
"undervalued gems." By relying on simplified categorizations, Sarah might miss out on
growth companies with strong fundamental qualities or overlook underperformers with
seemingly attractive valuations.
6. Narrative Fallacy: The narrative fallacy refers to humans' inclination to create stories
and causal links between unrelated events, ascribing meaning to randomness or
ambiguous information. Daniel Kahneman explains in Thinking, Fast and Slow, "We
are all hooked on stories; samples exceed populations, and we keep looking for rascals
and heroes.” When applied to finance, this bias translates into investors seeking
compelling narratives around stock performances instead of rigorous analysis of
financial statements or macroeconomic conditions. For example, Kevin, a technical
analyst, might emphasize chart patterns to convince himself and others that stock
ABCD will experience a breakout soon, despite weak fundamentals.
7. Herd Behaviour: Herd behaviour, commonly referred to as herding, is to the inclination
of individuals to imitate the acts or behaviours of a larger collective, frequently without
engaging in independent evaluation of the information or circumstances. This
phenomenon is commonly found across diverse social situations, encompassing
financial markets, wherein individuals often exhibit a tendency to conform to the
collective rather than relying on their own independent analysis when making
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judgments. Comprehending herd behaviour holds significant importance across
multiple disciplines, with particular relevance in the realm of finance, given its potential
to engender market inefficiencies, speculative bubbles, and abrupt downturns. It is
imperative for investors and policymakers to possess an understanding of the potential
ramifications of herd behaviour on decision-making processes and market dynamics.
In summary, behavioral finance acknowledges that psychological biases and emotions play a
crucial role in financial decision-making, departing from the assumption of complete
rationality in traditional finance theory. Understanding these biases through experimental
approaches borrowed from psychology allows us to design policies, products, and frameworks
that address investors’ irrationalities and foster wiser financial choices. By integrating
cognitive psychology, behavioral econometrics, and neuroeconomics, behavioral finance
furnishes a robust foundation for comprehending the complexity of real-world financial
markets.
Market Inefficiencies
Market inefficiencies are characterized by the failure of financial markets to accurately
and comprehensively incorporate all relevant information, resulting in mis-pricings and
poor allocation of resources. In the context of an efficient market, it is expected that
prices will reflect all pertinent information, and the valuation of assets will align with
their inherent or fundamental worth. Nevertheless, there exist certain elements that can
contribute to market inefficiencies, hence creating opportunities for investors to
potentially make abnormal returns.
Emotional Influences
The impact of emotional factors on human behaviour, decision-making, and responses
to diverse situations is of considerable importance. Behavioural finance recognizes the
influence of emotions, such as fear, greed, and regret, on financial decision-making.
Emotions can cloud judgment, lead to irrational behaviour, and cause individuals to
deviate from their long-term financial goals. Understanding the impact of emotions on
decision-making is essential for managing and mitigating their adverse effects.
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behavioural finance has gained significant traction in scholarly investigations,
investment administration, and financial advisory services, offering useful perspectives
on the intricate nature of investor conduct.
Market efficiency is a concept in financial economics that suggests that financial markets are
efficient and that prices reflect all available information at any given time. The rise of the
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been instrumental in shaping the way investors
approach financial markets. This note will explore the concept of market efficiency, the rise of
EMH, and examine its implications from an investor's perspective in the context of behavioral
finance.
Market Efficiency
Market efficiency refers to the idea that financial markets are efficient and that prices reflect
all available information at any given time. There are three forms of market efficiency: weak,
semi-strong, and strong. Weak form efficiency states that past stock prices cannot be used to
predict future stock prices. Semi-strong form efficiency adds that all publicly available
information is reflected in stock prices. Strong form efficiency goes further, arguing that all
information, whether public or private, is reflected in stock prices.
Implication for investors: With the advent of digitalization and easy accessibility of vast
amounts of data, investors today have more information at their disposal than ever before.
However, this increased availability of information does not necessarily mean that investors
can use it to consistently beat the market. According to market efficiency, even with access to
large amounts of data, investors cannot reliably predict future price movements because prices
already reflect all available information. Therefore, investors should focus on building a solid
investment strategy based on sound principles rather than trying to second-guess the market.
The EMH emerged as a response to the growing body of empirical evidence supporting the
idea of market efficiency. Developed by Eugene Fama, the EMH posits that financial markets
are efficient and that it is impossible for investors to consistently achieve returns in excess of
the market's average return.
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Efficient Market Hypothesis
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a theory in financial economics that suggests that
financial markets are efficient and that prices reflect all available information at any given time.
The EMH was first introduced by Eugene Fama in the 1960s and has since been widely
accepted and debated in the academic and financial communities. This paper will provide an
overview of the EMH, its underlying concepts, and its applications in the finance world.
Underlying Concepts
The EMH is based on three main principles: weak-form efficiency, semi-strong form
efficiency, and strong-form efficiency. Weak-form efficiency states that past stock prices and
returns are reflected in current stock prices and cannot be used to predict future prices or
returns. Semi-strong form efficiency implies that all publicly available information is reflected
in current stock prices, including financial statements, earnings reports, and other relevant data.
Strong-form efficiency takes it a step further, suggesting that all information, whether public
or private, is reflected in current stock prices.
The EMH has several practical implications for investors, financial analysts, and portfolio
managers. Here are some examples:
1. Random Walk Theory: According to the EMH, stock prices follow a random walk
process, meaning that each price change is independent of the previous one.
Therefore, it is impossible to predict future stock prices or returns based on historical
data. This has significant implications for technical analysis, which relies on
identifying patterns in past price movements to make predictions about future prices.
2. Efficient Pricing: The EMH suggests that asset prices reflect all available
information, making them efficient. As a result, it is challenging to consistently
achieve returns exceeding the market's average return, as any mispricing would
quickly be corrected by market forces. This led to the development of passive
investment strategies, such as index funds, which aim to track the market's
performance rather than trying to beat it.
3. Diversification: Another critical aspect of the EMH is the idea of diversifiable risk.
Since individual stocks are subject to unsystematic risks, investors can reduce their
overall risk by creating a diversified portfolio that includes a broad range of assets.
This reduces the likelihood of any single stock impacting the portfolio's performance
significantly.
4. Risk-Return Tradeoff: The EMH also highlights the importance of the risk-return
tradeoff. Investors who take on more risk should expect higher returns to compensate
for the increased uncertainty. This relationship holds for both individual assets and
entire portfolios.
5. Market Efficiency and Behavioral Finance: While the EMH assumes that markets are
rational and efficient, behavioral finance theories suggest that investor biases and
heuristics can lead to suboptimal decisions. By understanding these biases and how
they affect market behavior, investors can better navigate financial markets and avoid
common pitfalls.
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Empirical Evidence
Numerous studies have tested the validity of the EMH, and while some findings support its
claims, others challenge them. One famous study by Fama and French (1987) found that stock
prices do not follow a random walk, but instead exhibit persistence over short periods.
However, they concluded that this phenomenon does not necessarily violate the EMH, as it
could be attributed to changes in market conditions. Other research by Lo and MacKinlay
(1988) discovered that stock prices tend to react slowly to new information, leading to
temporary mispricing and potential opportunities for above-average returns.
The EMH implies that active investment strategies, such as picking individual stocks or timing
the market, are unlikely to generate consistent excess returns over the long term. Instead,
passive investment strategies, such as index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), become
more attractive since they track the overall market return without attempting to beat it.
Moreover, investors should refrain from reacting to news headlines or short-term market
fluctuations, as these events are likely already reflected in the market price.
Given the EMH's emphasis on market efficiency, investors must carefully consider how they
manage their portfolios. One key takeaway is that diversification is essential, as it helps reduce
exposure to individual stock risk and enhances the likelihood of achieving returns closer to the
overall market. In addition, since timing the market is difficult, investors should adopt a long-
term horizon, avoid frequent buying and selling, and consider dollar-cost averaging to smooth
out volatility.
Impact on behavioral finance: Interestingly, behavioral finance research shows that investors
frequently engage in counterproductive practices, such as anchoring and loss aversion, which
can harm their portfolio performance. By acknowledging market efficiency and embracing
passive investment strategies, investors can sidestep emotional decision-making and let data
drive their investment choices.
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Challenges to EMH and Implications
While the EMH remains a dominant paradigm in finance, some criticisms have arisen over the
years. Some argue that certain market participants, such as hedge funds or institutional
investors, possess resources and expertise that allow them to exploit temporary market
inefficiencies. Others point to instances of apparent market bubbles or anomalies, like the value
premium puzzle, which seem to violate EMH tenets. Additionally, recent advances in artificial
intelligence and machine learning raise questions about whether new sources of alpha could
emerge outside the bounds of traditional EMH assumptions.
Implications for investors: Despite these critiques, the EMH still serves as a useful guiding
principle for many investors. While staying aware of fresh research and developments is
essential, investors shouldn't rely solely on tried-and-true methods or tools. Embracing a hybrid
approach that blends aspects of both active and passive investing might provide better
outcomes. Furthermore, it's critical to recognize that financial goals and personal circumstances
shape investment objectives—not just market dynamics alone.
Hence, market efficiency and the EMH have reshaped how investors interact with financial
markets. These ideas emphasize that financial markets are efficient, and prices mirror all
available information. Investors should build a solid investment plan based on reliable data
rather than attempt to surpass the market. To boost their chances of success, investors can
diversify well, use dollar-cost averaging, and employ passive investment tactics. Even though
difficulties exist, investors must remain flexible and adapt to changes in the industry while
maintaining a firm grasp on the cornerstones of behavioral finance.
Summary
"An Introduction to Behavioural Finance" offers a comprehensive review of the nascent field
that amalgamates theories derived from behavioural and cognitive psychology with
conventional economics and finance. The field of behavioural finance aims to address the
constraints inherent in traditional finance theories and delve into the underlying causes of
reported inefficiencies within financial markets. The underlying principle of this framework is
that human decision-making is influenced by cognitive heuristics and emotional biases, which
in turn affect financial decision-making.
In summary, the discipline of behavioural finance provides unique insights into the intricacies
of financial markets and decision-making processes, thereby addressing the constraints
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inherent in conventional finance models. The practical implications of this field of study extend
to other domains such as investment management, risk management, and financial advice
services. This contributes to a more thorough comprehension of investor behaviour and market
dynamics.
References:
1. Fama, E. F. (1965). The behavior of stock prices. Journal of Business, 38(1), 379-386.
2. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1987). Dividend yields and expected stock returns.
Journal of Financial Economics, 18(2), 33-52.
3. Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1988). Stock prices do not follow a random walk:
Evidence from a multivariate analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, 23(1), 11-35.
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