INDIAN CERAMIC TILES

INDUSTRY

Healthy demand prospects and

softening input prices to spur
recovery in H2 FY2023

FEBRUARY 2023
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Highlights
▪ In H1 FY2023, the Indian tiles industry grappled with rising input costs (especially piped natural gas),
which impacted the industry’s operating profitability by ~300-400 bps. Container freight rates
remained elevated (even as these started moderating after peaking in January 2022), reducing the
competitiveness of India tiles in the export market.

▪ The demand prospects for the industry remain supported by the uptrend in the domestic housing
Click to Provide Feedback cycle. Moreover, the imposition of anti-dumping duty (ADD) by western nations on China, apart from
the normalisation of freight costs, has made exports lucrative for Indian manufacturers.

While the industry’s performance ▪ Natural gas prices started softening from September 2022 amid the slowdown in global economy and
recessionary fears in the developed world. Further, the partial shift of tiles companies to cheaper
remained impacted amid elevated alternatives like LPG and propane is expected to improve the margin on a sequential basis in H2
PNG prices and sluggish export FY2023.
demand till H1 FY2023, healthy
demand prospects and softening ▪ The structural shift towards more value-added products is expected to augment an improvement in
input prices are expected to spur realisation and profitability margins, especially for branded players, who have an edge over the
unorganised players in terms of faster product innovation and development.
recovery in H2 FY2023

▪ With most of the tiles players currently operating at an optimum capacity utilisation amid healthy
demand prospects, key players have announced significant investments in capacity expansion,
mergers/acquisitions, value-added products and addition of new geographies in the medium term.

▪ The overall credit metrics are expected to moderate slightly in FY2023e with an increase in working
capital borrowings of most of the industry participants. While the pressure would be evident among
small to mid-sized players, the larger players have better financial flexibility and liquidity cushion to
absorb this.

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India 2nd largest consumer of tiles; demand growth better than peers in CY17-21

Exhibit2:1:Growth
Exhibit Ceramic
in tiles: Market size and
Tile Consumption top global
(in MSM) consumer
in India countries
Vs peers Exhibit 2: YoY consumption growth in key world markets

20000 40%
Consumption in Mn Sq. Mtrs.

18,037 17,313 17,050 18,209

18000 16,638 30%
16000
30% 34% 20%
14000 33% 10%
34% 34%
12000 7% 1% 7% 5%
4% 10% 2%
4% 5% 5% 0.2%
10000 9% 5%
10% 11% 11% 0%
8000 11%
6000 -10% -4%
4000 51% 47% 45%
45% 46% -20%
2000
-30%
0
CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY17-CY21
CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021
YoY growth % CAGR %

China India Brazil Vietnam Indonesia Others China India Brazil Vietnam Indonesia World

▪ India is the second-largest consumer of ceramic tiles globally.

▪ While the world tile consumption has stagnated for the past several years, India continues to grow at ~5% CAGR.
▪ Government’s focus on infrastructure growth, investment in product innovations, improving disposable income levels of the mass and rising
preference for modern residential spaces with aesthetic flooring solutions are a few of the factors driving market growth in India.

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Source: Ceramic World Review, ICRA Research www.icra.in
Sluggish demand impacted industry’s performance in H1 FY2023

Exhibit 3: Quarterly trend in industry revenues Exhibit 4: Quarterly trend in realisation of tiles (Rs/per sq metre)

3,000 102% 120% 400 7% 8%

100%
3% 0% 0-2%
2-4% 350
2,500 63% 9% 80% 6%
Revenues in Rs. crore

52% 300 4%
2,000 60% 3% 4%
30% 250
16% 22% 40%
13%
1,500
9% 4%
-1% -1% 20% 200
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2%
-26% 0% 150
1,000 -1% -1% 0%
-20%
100
-60% -40% -3% -2%
500 50
-60%
0 -80% 0 -4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e

FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023

Operating Income YoY growth % Realisation (Rs/Sqm) QoQ growth %

▪ Domestic tiles manufacturers saw strong Q1 revenues, aided by robust volume growth and higher realisations. However, revenues moderated in
Q2 because of seasonality (monsoon months) and gas availability-led production constraints. Coupled with sluggish exports, inventory levels for
the domestic tiles industry saw an increase. Consequently, most players in Morbi took a month-long planned shutdown (Aug-Sep’22), which
reduced the supply pressure in the domestic market.
▪ With improving exports and reversal of Morbi supplies to overseas markets, domestic organised players are expected to benefit in H2 FY2023.

Source: Aceequity, ICRA Research; Industry aggregate above consists of 5 listed companies – Kajaria Ceramics Limited (KCL), Asian Granito Limited(AGL), Somany Ceramics Limited (SCL), Orient Bell 44
Ltd (OBL) and Murudeshwar Ceramics Ltd www.icra.in
 Export volumes slowed down since FY2022; recovery offshoots seen in Q3 FY2023

Exhibit 5: Trend in India’s annual tile export revenues Exhibit 6: Trend in India’s quarterly tile export revenues

131% 4,000 121% 7% 140%

14,000 140% 12%
3,500 120%
21% 5%
12,000 120% 3,000 100%
33% 15% 38%
10,000 100% 80%
2,500 52% 50%
38% 60%
8,000 33% 80% 2,000 32% 32% 25% 40%
1,500 13%
6,000 21% 60% 20%
43% -9% -8%
1,000 -19% 0%
4,000 40% -29%
500 -20%
2,000 20% 0 -40%
0 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2m
Q3
FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 8M
FY2023 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023

Export Revenues (Rs. Crore) YoY growth % Export revenues (Rs. Crore) YoY growth %

▪ Indian tile exports grew at a CAGR of ~30% over FY2016-FY2021. However, the pace of exports moderated during Q2-Q4 FY2022 amid elevated sea freight
rates and higher production cost, which reduced the competitiveness of India tiles in the international market. The underperformance has been higher in
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where exports fell 20% in FY2022 after the imposition of anti-dumping duty (ADD ~41%) from June 2020.
▪ While export revenues grew by 5% in FY2022, the average tiles realisation improved by around 10% during this period (partly on account of rupee
depreciation). The overall tiles export (in volume terms) is estimated to have declined by around 5% in FY2022. Further, tiles exports (in volumes) are
estimated to have grown by a modest 2% during 8M FY2023 and the revenue growth is again reflecting the INR depreciation to a large extent.

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Source: ICRA Research; DGFT www.icra.in
 Excess domestic supply constrained pricing power in H1 FY2023, dragging margins

Exhibit 7: Quarterly trend in RM and fuel cost/OI ratio Exhibit 8: Quarterly trend in gross profit and operating profit margin

80% 70% 59%

67% 55% 55% 55% 57% 58%
70% 60% 52% 53% 51% 53% 54% 51% 54%
60% 50%
45% 45% 45% 43% 48% 47% 49% 47% 46% 49% 46%
50% 42% 41% 40% 33%
40% 30%
26% 24%
12% 12% 12% 9% 15% 17% 16% 14% 13% 11%
30% 20% 11% 8%
18% 17% 18% 20% 16% 15% 15%
20% 18% 20% 19% 10%
20% 10%
6% -5%
10% 0%
0% -10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023

RM/OI Power & Fuel/OI Gross profit margin % OPM%

▪ While tiles demand in the domestic market remained relatively stable, the decline in exports in 2022 shifted Morbi supplies to the domestic market,
thus diluting the industry’s ability to pass on the sharp increase in input prices, especially gas. This led to a moderation in the industry’s operating
margins, as witnessed in H1 FY2023.
▪ The trend in gross profit margins indicate that the impact of RM cost escalations was almost fully passed-through by the listed players. However,
power and fuel expense dragged down the overall profitability by almost 400-500bps in H1 FY2023.

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Source: Ace equity data for 5 listed companies in ICRA sample set, ICRA Research www.icra.in
Profitability impact was higher in smaller players vis-à-vis large organised players

Exhibit 9: Impact of RM & fuel cost on operating margins of listed players Exhibit 10: Impact of RM & fuel cost on operating margins of smaller players

▪ The larger organised tiles sector in India majorly focusses on the domestic market, while 50-60% of the companies operating in the Morbi cluster of
Gujarat are catering to exports. Given the established brand presence of the listed players in the domestic market, the margin impact was relatively low
(as price hikes were taken) compared to the regional players in Gujarat and the southern markets.
▪ As the larger players are engaged in manufacturing as well as trading, the raw material consumption impact was higher among the larger players on
account of the increased cost of traded products. Meanwhile, given the lower volume of exports, due to exogenous factors and the relatively low ability
to bargain for gas prices, the impact on the profit margins of smaller players in ICRA’s sample set is expected to be higher.

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Source: Ace equity, ICRA Research www.icra.in
Underlying domestic demand drivers, however, remain strong

Exhibit 11: Progress under PM Awas Yojna - Urban Exhibit 12: Pan-India unsold residential inventory overhang (in months)
150 82% 86% 100% Multi year low levels; to spur construction activity
73% 73% 50
Units in Lakhs

58% 40 37 36
100 45% 31 31
28 30 30 29
50% 30 24
22 21 20
50 18
20
10
0 0%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Nov-22 0
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Houses Sanctioned Grounded for construction % Grounded
Source: PMAY-urban.gov.in, ICRA Research Source: PropEquity data, ICRA Research

Exhibit 13: Trend in RBI’s sectoral deployment of bank credit ▪ Demand for ceramic tiles remains supported by the uptrend in domestic
housing cycle and strong demand from individual house builders in smaller
cities.
Credit in Rs. lakh crore

20.0 15% 16% 20%

15% 13%
11% 11% ▪ The improved outlook for the real estate sector with the completion of
stalled housing units, the ongoing housing upcycle as well as home
10.0 10% improvement/upgradation trend has led to a pick-up in demand for building
materials, including tiles and sanitaryware products, in the domestic
market.
0.0 0%
Mar-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Dec-22 ▪ Commercial bank credit to RE sector has steadily increased, following the
pandemic. The uptrend in retail housing loans, supported by relatively low
Commercial RE Personal Loans for Housing (incl PSL) borrowing rates and relaxed lending norms, is also a good indicator of
YoY increase % (cumulative) healthy demand for building materials, including tiles.
Source: RBI, ICRA Research
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Pick-up in exports to new geographies will benefit the industry

Exhibit 14: India’s share in world exports Exhibit 15: Key markets for Indian exporters

3100 16% 16% 18%

100%
3000 16%
2900 13% 14% 80% 41% 42%
52% 50% 54%
2800 10% 12% 62% 61%
2700 8% 10% 60%
7% 8%
2600 7% 8% 6% 7% 5%
6% 4% 4% 3% 3%
2500 5% 6% 40% 1% 5% 4%
4% 1% 4% 7% 6%
5%
2400 2% 4% 6% 8%
1% 20% 45% 43%
35% 37%
2300 2% 30%
23% 22%
2200 0% 0%
CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 8M
FY2023
Total world exports (in MSM) India Share (in %)
GCC USA Iraq Mexico Others
Source: Ceramic World Review, ICRA Research Source: EXIM Bank data, ICRA Research

▪ Indian tiles have steadily gained share in world tiles exports, mainly at the expense of China, which is experiencing contraction.
▪ While exports to GCC countries fell by 20% in FY2022, the imposition of ADD by the US and Europe on China, raw material availability constraints
(European makers have higher dependency on Ukraine’s clay to manufacture tiles), normalisation of freight costs, cheaper energy costs in India vis-
à-vis Europe and the lockdowns in China are a few key factors for exports becoming lucrative for Indian manufacturers for other geographies in
FY2023. This would ease competition in the domestic market, making room for higher growth for domestic-focused branded players

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Moderation in energy and freight costs augurs well for industry’s profitability

Exhibit 16: Trend in PNG and Coal Prices Exhibit 17: Shanghai Containerized Freight Index

400 70 6000
350 4x times growth in 24 months:
60
5000 Jan-20-Jan-22
300 50
250
40 4000
200
30
150 3000
100 20

50 10 2000
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1000
80% decline from Jan-22
levels by Jan-23
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 0

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22
Jan-20
Mar-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Mar-21

Sep-21

Jan-22
Mar-22

Sep-22

Jan-23
International Coal Prices (USD/Tonne) (LHS)
PNG MGO Prices - Gujarat Gas Limited (Rs./SCM (excl tax)

▪ Gas prices have started softening (on QoQ basis) mainly on account of adequate storage levels in EU for the winter, slowdown in global economy
impacting demand and recessionary fears in developed economies. Further, tiles companies have been moving (partly) to cheaper alternatives like LPG
and propane (~5-10% lower cost); this is expected to improve the margin on a sequential basis in H2 FY2023.
▪ Even though the freight rates have moderated during 2022 from the historical high levels, these are likely to be higher than the pre-pandemic levels due
to elevated ancillary charges – high fuel prices, port taxes, canal charges and higher cost of new vessels. Container freight rates can be expected to
decline further as merchandise trade normalises and newly built vessels enter the market.
▪
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Source: ICRA Research, Bloomberg www.icra.in
Multiple tailwinds to drive industry growth over the next 12-15 months

Exhibit 18: ICRA sample set - Revenue growth trend - Past and projected

12,000 28% 30%

7-9%
Domestic demand - To be driven by rebound
11-13% 25% in housing and commercial real estate market
10,000
and not much capacity addition (leading to
constant supply)
20%
8,000
9% 4% -3% 2% Export demand - Expected to rebound after
15%
contracting in CY2022 due to India's cost
6,000 and quality advantage
10%

4,000 Revenue growth will mainly be volume

5% driven; however, export recovery will give
some pricing power to domestic players
2,000
0%

Headwinds - High inflation, weak rural

0 -5% demand, dumping of Chinese inventory and
FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023P FY2024P price wars due to competition
OI (Rs. Crore) YoY growth %

Source: ICRA Research; Industry aggregate consist of 6 listed companies and 8 unlisted companies rated by ICRA 11
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Focus on value-added products, a structural positive for long-term growth

Exhibit 19: Share of GVT in capacity mix of key organised sector players Exhibit 20: Capacity additions in sanitaryware and bathware by leading OEMs

70% 4.0
62%
3.5

Capacity in Mn pieces p.a.

60%
49% 50% 50%
3.0
50%
2.5
40%
31% 32% 32% 2.0
30% 27% 26%
24%
20% 19% 19% 19% 1.5
20% 16%
1.0
10% 0.5
0% 0.0
FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 KCL SCL H&R Johnson

KCL AGL SCL Mar-17 Sep-22 Mar-24e

▪ Indian tile industry has historically been driven by ceramic walls and floor tiles. However, owing to the increase in purchasing power and changes in
lifestyle, customer preferences are gradually shifting towards higher value-added premium vitrified tiles.
▪ The structural shift in value-added products (such as glazed vitrified tiles (GVT)) over the period is expected to improve realisation and profitability
margins, especially of branded players, who have an edge over unorganised players in terms of faster product innovation and development.
▪ New product innovations such as large-sized tile slabs, stone plastic composite flooring, along with an expansion into the sanitaryware and bathware
segment, is expected to drive the industry’s growth, going ahead.

Source: Company quarterly investor presentations, ICRA Research 12

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Margin recovery in sight, though FY2024e to trail levels seen in FY2021-2022

Exhibit 21: Trend in operating and net margin of ICRA sample set

16%
14% 14%
14% 12%
12% 11%
12% 9-12%
10% 8-10%

8% 6% 7%
6%
6% 5% 5% 4-6%
3-5%
4%
2%
0%
FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023P FY2024P

Operating profit margin% Net profit margin %

Return of pricing power to Increasing volumes

Moderation in
domestic branded players driving positive
energy/ gas prices
with recovery in exports operating leverage

Source: ICRA Research; Industry aggregate consists of 6 listed companies and 8 unlisted companies rated by ICRA 13
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Healthy capacity utilisations trigger capex cycle; expected to continue in FY2024e

Exhibit 22: Trend in capacity utilisation of key players Exhibit 23: Trend in capital expenditure for ICRA sample set

100% 800 ~750

710 ~700
99%

97%
90% 700

93%
89%
80%

87%
85%
84%
600
83%

83%
81%
80%

70%

74%
500

69%
69%
60%

Rs. crore
62%
400 370
50% 340
40% 300
220
30%
200
20%
10% 100

0% 0
FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 H1FY23 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023P FY2024P
KCL AGL SCL

▪ Leading manufacturers saw capacity utilisation levels exceeding 85% in FY2022; these continued to remain elevated in H1 FY2023.
▪ With most players operating at an optimum capacity and healthy demand prospects in both the domestic and international markets, significant
investments have been announced in capacity expansion, mergers/acquisitions and ventures into new geographies, which will support revenue
expansion in the medium to long term.

Source: ICRA Research; Industry aggregate consists of 6 listed companies and 8 unlisted companies rated by ICRA 14
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Sizeable capex towards capacity expansion, modernisation & value-added products

Capacity Outlay
Company Comments
Addition (in Rs. Crore)

~300 8 MSM capacity being created in Nepal under a JV, likely

Kajaria Ceramics 11 MSM (including 75 on to be operational by mid-CY2024;
Sanitaryware) 17 MSM already added in CY2022 @ Rs. 275 crore

Greenfield slab tile manufacturing facility in Gujarat is

Somany Ceramics 4.5 MSM ~170 expected to commence production by Q1 FY2024-end;
New capacity of 11 MSM has started contributing

H&R Johnson (Prism Johnson) 11 MSM - Capacity addition in FY2022-FY2024

~400
Asian Granito 9.9 MSM (including 50 in Bathware ~16 MSM already added in CY2022 @ Rs. 70 crore
& Sanitaryware)

Orient Bell 6.3 MSM ~180 0.7 MSM already added in CY2022 @ Rs. 11 crore

Source: ICRA Research, Company announcements 15

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Credit metrics to rebound in FY2024e after slight moderation in FY2023e

Exhibit 24: Receivable, payable, inventory holding period of ICRA sample set Exhibit 25: Trend in coverage indicators of ICRA sample set

140 27% 30% 12.0

26% 25% 10.0
120 23% 23% 22% 25% 10.0 9.2
20% 8.1
100
20% 8.0 6.7
80 6.0
5.5
15% 6.0 4.6
60 3.9 4.2
3.0 3.4
10% 4.0
40 2.1
1.5 1.8
20 5% 2.0
1.7 1.9 1.9 1.5
0 0% 0.0 1.4 1.1 1.3
FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023P FY2024P FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023P FY2024P

Debtor Days Creditor Days Inventory Days NWC/OI% Interest Cover TD/OPBDITA DSCR

▪ Given the significant ongoing and proposed expansion being undertaken by the industry participants, the debt levels and working capital borrowings
of some of the players are also expected to increase from the levels seen in FY2022. Nevertheless, some companies like Asian Granito have raised
funds by rights issue, a part of which is deployed towards deleveraging and working capital requirements.
▪ At a broader industry level, most industry participants will witness a sequential moderation in credit profile during FY2023e. The pressure would be
more evident in small to mid-sized players, whereas the larger players have better financial flexibility and liquidity cushion to absorb cost pressure.

Source: ICRA Research; Industry aggregate consists of 6 listed companies and 8 unlisted companies rated by ICRA 16
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Outlook - FY2024e

₹ Outlook
Industry Revenues Profitability Capital Expenditure Capital Structure Coverage Indicators

₹ ₹ ₹ ₹
₹

~7-9% YoY growth Operating profitability to Healthy capacity Capital structure to Coverage indicators to
driven by higher revive by 100-200 bps utilisation levels to drive improve in FY2024e remain comfortable;
volumes given the led by expected significant capex despite higher debt higher profitability will
improved demand in softening of gas prices towards capacity levels to fund capex and support YoY
domestic as well as expansion & value- working capital improvement, despite
export markets added products borrowings increase in debt levels

Key monitorable will be input prices and infrastructure spending

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ICRA RATINGS IN THE SECTOR

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List of ICRA-rated entities in the ceramic tiles industry

Exhibit 26: ICRA’s ratings for entities in the ceramic tiles industry

Company Name Long-term Rating Outlook Short-term Rating Last Rating action/ PR date

Kajaria Ceramics Limited [ICRA]AA Stable [ICRA]A1+ Ratings reaffirmed; Outlook revised to Stable; Dec 2022
Asian Granito India Limited [ICRA]A Negative [ICRA]A2+ Ratings downgraded; Nov 2022
Aparna Enterprises Ltd. [ICRA]A- Stable [ICRA]A2+ Ratings reaffirmed; May 2022
Amazoone Ceramics Ltd. [ICRA]BBB- Negative [ICRA]A3 Ratings downgraded; Nov 2022
Sentini Ceramica Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]BBB+ Negative [ICRA]A2 Ratings reaffirmed; Outlook revised to Negative; Jul 2022
Sanskar Ceramics Private Limited [ICRA]BBB Stable [ICRA]A3+ Ratings reaffirmed; Dec 2022
Solizo Vitrified Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]BB- Stable [ICRA]A4 Ratings reaffirmed; Aug 2022
Leviton Ceramic LLP [ICRA]BB- Stable [ICRA]A4 Ratings reaffirmed; Jan 2022
Octiva Ceramic [ICRA]BB- Stable [ICRA]A4 Ratings reaffirmed; Nov 2022
Real Granito Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]B+ Stable [ICRA]A4 Ratings reaffirmed; Apr 2022
Ratings downgraded to [ICRA] D/D and simultaneously
Adoration Ceramica Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]B+ Stable [ICRA]A4
upgraded; Feb 2022
Keramika Indiana [ICRA]B Stable [ICRA]A4 Ratings reaffirmed; Apr 2022

Source: ICRA Research; Ratings outstanding as on Jan 31, 2023; Highlighted cells indicate negative rating actions during the year
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Click to Provide Feedback

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 Analytical Contact Details

Rajeshwar Burla Ashish Modani Ritu Goswami Anurag Bhootra

Group Head & Co-Group Head & Sector Head &
Senior Analyst
Vice-President Vice-President Assistant Vice-President

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

+91 40 4067 527 +91 22 6114 3414 +91 124 4545 826 +91 124 4545 852

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 Business Development/Media Contact Details

L. Shivakumar Jayanta Chatterjee Naznin Prodhani

Executive Vice-President Executive Vice-President Head Media & Communications

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

022 - 6114 3406 080 - 4332 6401 0124 - 4545 860

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