Download More ebooks [PDF]. Format PDF ebook download PDF KINDLE.

Full download ebooks at ebookmass.com

Natural Disasters 10th Edition – Ebook

PDF Version

For dowload this book click BUTTON or LINK below

https://ebookmass.com/product/natural-
disasters-10th-edition-ebook-pdf-version/

OR CLICK BUTTON

DOWLOAD NOW

Download More ebooks from https://ebookmass.com

More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

Natural Disasters 10th Edition Edition Patrick Leon

Abbott

https://ebookmass.com/product/natural-disasters-10th-edition-
edition-patrick-leon-abbott/

Social Vulnerability to Disasters – Ebook PDF Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/social-vulnerability-to-disasters-
ebook-pdf-version/

Preparedness and Response for Catastrophic Disasters –

Ebook PDF Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/preparedness-and-response-for-
catastrophic-disasters-ebook-pdf-version/

Introduction to 80×86 Assembly Language and Computer

Architecture – Ebook PDF Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/introduction-to-8086-assembly-
language-and-computer-architecture-ebook-pdf-version/
Prescott’s Microbiology 10th Edition – Ebook PDF
Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/prescotts-microbiology-10th-
edition-ebook-pdf-version/

Understanding Social Problems 10th Edition – Ebook PDF

Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/understanding-social-problems-10th-
edition-ebook-pdf-version/

Textbook of Natural Medicine – E-Book – Ebook PDF

Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/textbook-of-natural-medicine-e-
book-ebook-pdf-version/

Reading & Learning to Read 10th Edition – Ebook PDF

Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/reading-learning-to-read-10th-
edition-ebook-pdf-version/

Groups: Process and Practice 10th Edition – Ebook PDF

Version

https://ebookmass.com/product/groups-process-and-practice-10th-
edition-ebook-pdf-version/
Normal-Fault Earthquakes 112 CHAPTER 6
Puget Sound, Washington, 1949, 1965, 2001:
Subducting Plates can Crack 112 Volcanic Eruptions: Plate Tectonics
Neotectonics and Paleoseismology 113 and Magmas 141
Earthquake Prediction 115 How We Understand Volcanic Eruptions 142
Long-Term Forecasts 115 Plate-Tectonic Setting of Volcanoes 142
Short-Term Forecasts 116 A Classic Disaster: Eruption of Mount
Early Warning System 117 Vesuvius, 79 ce 144
Human-Triggered Earthquakes 117 Chemical Composition of Magmas 145
Pumping Fluids Underground 117 Viscosity, Temperature, and Water Content
of Magmas 146
Side Note: Perils of Predication: Scientists
In Greater Depth: Minerals and Volcanic Rocks 147
on Trial 118
Plate-Tectonic Setting of Volcanoes Revisited 149
Dam Earthquakes 118
Bomb Blasts 119 How a Volcano Erupts 150
Eruption Styles and the Role of Water
Earthquake-Shaking Maps 119
Content 150
Did You Feel It? 119
Some Volcanic Materials 151
Shakemaps 119
The Three Vs of Volcanology: Viscosity,
California Earthquake Scenario 119 Volatiles, Volume 152
Annualized Earthquake Losses 121
Side Note: How a Geyser Erupts 154
Great Shakeout Events 121
Shield Volcanoes: Low Viscosity, Low Volatiles,
Earthquakes in the United States and Large Volume 155
Canada 121 Flood Basalts: Low Viscosity, Low Volatiles,
Western North America: Plate Boundary–Zone very Large Volume 156
Earthquakes 123
In Greater Depth: Volcanic Explosivity
Western Great Basin: Eastern California,
Index (VEI) 157
Western Nevada 124
Scoria Cones: Medium Viscosity, Medium
The Intermountain Seismic Belt: Utah, Idaho, Volatiles, Small Volume 158
Wyoming, Montana 127
Stratovolcanoes: High Viscosity, High Volatiles,
Rio Grande Rift: New Mexico, Colorado, Large Volume 158
Westernmost Texas, Mexico 129
Lava Domes: High Viscosity, Low Volatiles,
Intraplate Earthquakes: “Stable” Central Small Volume 160
United States 130 Calderas: High Viscosity, High Volatiles,
New Madrid, Missouri, 1811–1812 130 Very Large Volume 161
Reelfoot Rift: Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee,
Side Note: British Airways Flight 9 162
Kentucky, Illinois 132
Ancient Rifts in the Central United States 133 In Greater Depth: Hot Spots 168

Intraplate Earthquakes: Eastern North A Classic Disaster: Santorini and the Lost Island
America 134 of Atlantis 169
New England 134 Summary 169; Terms to Remember 170;
Questions for Review 170; Questions for Further
St. Lawrence River Valley 134
Thought 170
Charleston, South Carolina, 1886 135
Earthquakes and Volcanism in Hawaii 137
CHAPTER 7
Earthquake in 1975 138
Earthquakes in 2006 138 Volcano Case Histories:
Summary 139; Terms to Remember 139; Killer Events 171
Questions for Review 139; Questions for Further Volcanism at Spreading Centers 172
Thought 140 Iceland 172

Contents   vii
 Volcanism at Subduction Zones 173 Earthquake-Caused Tsunami 211
Cascade Range, Pacific Coast of United States Indian Ocean 26 December 2004 212
and Canada 173 Alaska, 1 April 1946: First Wave Biggest 213
In Greater Depth: Rapid Assembly and Rise Chile, 22 May 1960: Third Wave Biggest 214
of Magma 183 Alaska, 27 March 1964: Fifth Wave Biggest 215
Volcanic Processess and Killer Events 183 Volcano-Caused Tsunami 215
The Historic Record of Volcano Fatalities 183 Krakatau, Indonesia, 26–27 August 1883 215
Pyroclastic Eruptions 184 Landslide-Caused Tsunami 216
A Classic Disaster: Mont Pelée, Volcano Collapses 216
Martinique, 1902 186 Earthquake-Triggered Movements 217
Tsunami 188 In Bays and Lakes 219
Lahars 188 Seiches 220
Debris Avalanches 190 Hebgen Lake, Montana, 17 August 1959 220
Side Note: Death at Ashfall, Nebraska 191 Tsunami and You 221
Indirect—Famine 191 Simeulue Island, Indonesia, 26 December 2004 221
Gas 192 Nicaragua, 1 September 1992 221
Lava Flows 194 Humans Can Increase the Hazard 222
VEIs of Some Killer Eruptions 194 Tsunami Warnings 222
Volcano Monitoring and Warning 195 Summary 224; Terms to Remember 224; Questions
Long Valley, California, 1982 195 for Review 224; Questions for Further Thought 224
Disaster Simulation Game 225
Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991 197
Signs of Impending Eruption 197
Volcano Observatories 198 CHAPTER 9
Summary 198; Terms to Remember 199; External Energy Fuels Weather
Questions for Review 199; Questions for Further and Climate 226
Thought 199
External Sources of Energy 227
The Sun 227
CHAPTER 8 Solar Radiation Received by Earth 228
Tsunami Versus Wind-Caused Outgoing Terrestrial Radiation 229
Waves 200 Greenhouse Effect 229
Japanese Tsunami, 11 March 2011 201 Albedo 229
Tsunami Travel Through the Pacific Ocean 201 The Hydrologic Cycle 230
Land Subsidence 202 Water and Heat 231
Side Note: Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster 203 In Greater Depth: Water—The Most Peculiar
British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Substance on Earth? 232
26 January 1700 203 Convection 232
Waves in Water 204 Water Vapor and Humidity 232
Wind-Caused Waves 204 Latent Heat 233
Why a Wind-Blown Wave Breaks 204 Adiabatic Processes 233
Rogue Waves 205 Lapse Rates 233
In Greater Depth: Deep-Water Wave Velocity, Differential Heating of Land and Water 234
Length, Period, and Energy 206 Energy Transfer in the Atmosphere 234
Tsunami 206 Energy Transfer in the World Ocean 234
Tsunami Versus Wind-Caused Waves 208 Layering of the Lower Atmosphere 235
A Classic Disaster: The Chile Tsunami of 1868 210 Temperature 235
Tsunami at the Shoreline 210 Pressure 236

viii   Contents
 Winds 236 A Classic Disaster: The Tri-State Tornado
Pressure Gradient Force 237 of 1925 269

In Greater Depth: Coriolis Effect 238

Tornado Outbreaks 269
Tornadoes and Cities 271
Rotating Air Bodies 238
How a Tornado Destroys a House 272
General Circulation of the Atmosphere 239
Low Latitudes 240 Tornado Safety 272
Safe Rooms 272
High Latitudes 240
Middle Latitudes 241 Lightning 272
How Lightning Works 273
Observed Circulation of the Atmosphere 244
Don’t Get Struck 274
General Circulation of the Oceans 245
Surface Circulation 245 Heat 275
Heat Wave in Chicago, July 1995 276
Deep-Ocean Circulation 245
City Weather 278
Summary 246; Terms to Remember 247; Questions
for Review 247; Questions for Further Thought 247 European Heat Waves, 2003 and 2010 278
Summary 278; Terms to Remember 279;
CHAPTER 10 Questions for Review 279; Questions for Further
Thought 280
Tornadoes, Lightning, Heat,
and Cold 248 CHAPTER 11
Severe Weather 249
Hurricanes 281
Winter Storms 250
Hurricanes 283
Cold 250
How a Hurricane Forms 284
Precipitation 251
How a Hurricane Works 285
Nor’Easters 251
Eyewall and Eye 286
In Greater Depth: Doppler Radar 252 Tornadoes Within Hurricanes 286
Blizzards 253
Energy Flow in a Hurricane 287
Ice Storms 253
Hurricane Energy Release 287
Lake-Effect Snow 254
Hurricane Transition to Post-Tropical
How Thunderstorms Work 255 Cyclone 287
Lifting of Air 255 Hurricane Origins 288
Air-Mass Thunderstorms 255 North Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes 289
Severe Thunderstorms 257 Cape Verde-Type Hurricanes 290
Supercells 257 Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico–Type
Thunderstorms in North America 257 Hurricanes 293
In Greater Depth: Downbursts: An Airplane’s Hurricane Forecasts 294
Enemy 258 How Hurricanes Get their Names 296
Heavy Rains and Flash Floods 258 Hurricane Trends in the Atlantic Basin 296
Hail 260 Hurricane Damages 298
Derechos 261 Storm-Surge Hazards 298
Tornadoes 262 Heavy Rains and Inland Flooding 300
Tornadoes in 2011 262 A Classic Disaster: The Galveston Hurricane
How Tornadoes Form 262 of 1900 302
Regional Scale 262 Hurricanes and the Gulf of Mexico
Supercell Thunderstorm Scale 263 Coastline 302
Vortex Scale 265 Hurricane Katrina, August 2005 302
Tornadoes in the United States and Hurricanes and the Atlantic Coastline 305
Canada 266 Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 305

Contents   ix
 The Evacuation Dilemma 305 Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 332
Reduction of Hurricane Damages 306 Water Vapor 332
In Greater Depth: How to Build a Home Near In Greater Depth: When did Humans Begin
the Coastline 307 Adding to Greenhouse Warming? 333
Land-Use Planning 307 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 334
Global Rise in Sea Level 308 Methane (CH4) 334
Hurricanes and the Pacific Coastline 308 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 335
Hurricane Iniki, September 1992 308 Ozone (O3) 335
Cyclones and Bangladesh 309 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 335
Summary 310; Terms to Remember 310; 20th-Century Greenhouse Gas Increases 335
Questions for Review 311; Questions for Aerosols 335
Further Thought 311; Disaster Simulation
Game 311 The 21st Century 335
Global Climate Models 336
Drought and Famine 338
CHAPTER 12
Ice Melting 339
Climate Change 312 In Greater Depth: Tipping Points 340
Early Earth Climate—An Intense Sea-Level Rise 340
Greenhouse 313
In Greater Depth: Lag Times 342
Climate History of Earth: Timescale in Millions
Ocean Changes 343
of Years 314
Signs of Change 344
In Greater Depth: Equilibrium Between Tectonics,
Rock Weathering, and Climate 315 Mitigation Options 344
Late Paleozoic Ice Age 315 Controlling CO2 Content of Atmosphere 344
Late Paleocene Torrid Age 316 Managing Incoming Solar Radiation 345
Fast-Action Strategies 345
In Greater Depth: Oxygen Isotopes and
Summary 346; Terms to Remember 347;
Temperature 318
Questions for Review 347; Questions for Further
Late Cenozoic Ice Age 318 Thought 347
Glacial Advance and Retreat: Timescale
in Thousands of Years 319 CHAPTER 13
The Last Glacial Maximum 320
Floods 348
Climate Variations: Timescale in Hundreds
How Rivers and Streams Work 349
of Years 322
Shorter-Term Climate Changes: Timescale Side Note: A Different Kind of Killer Flood 350
in Multiple Years 323 The Equilibrium Stream 350
El Niño 323 In Greater Depth: Stream Velocity Profile 352
La Niña 325 Graded-Stream Theory 352
Pacific Decadal Oscillation 326 Side Note: Feedback Mechanisms 354
Volcanism and Climate 327 The Floodplain 354
Volcanic Climate Effects 328 Flood Frequency 354
In Greater Depth: The Mayan Civilization Florence, Italy, 1333 and 1966 354
and Climate Change 329 Flood-Frequency Curves 354
The Past Thousand Years 330 In Greater Depth: Constructing Flood-Frequency
The 20th Century 331 Curves 356
Solar Energy Variation 331 Flood Styles 357
Side Note: Stradivari Violins 332 Flash Floods 357
Radiative Forcing 332 Regional Floods 361

x   Contents
 Societal Responses to Flood Hazards 367 How Well Have We Learned? 395
Dams, Reservoirs, and Natural Storage Areas 367 Side Note: The Winds of Madness 397
Levees 368 Fire Suppression 398
Sandbagging 369 Yellowstone National Park Wildfire 399
Forecasting 369 California Versus Baja California: Pay Now
Zoning and Land Use 369 or Pay Later 400
Insurance 370 The Western and Southern United States
Presidential Disaster Declarations 370 in 2000 402
Urbanization and Floods 370 Prescribed Fires 403
Hydrographs 370 Wildfires in Australia 403
Flood Frequencies 371 The Similarities of Fire and Flood 405
Channelization 371 Summary 405; Terms to Remember 406;
Questions for Review 406; Questions
The Biggest Floods 373 for Further Thought 406; Disaster Simulation
Ice-Dam Failure Floods 374 Game 406
Summary 376; Terms to Remember 377;
Questions for Review 377; Questions for Further
Thought 377; Disaster Simulation Game 377 CHAPTER 15
Mass Movements 407
The Role of Gravity in Mass Movements 408
CHAPTER 14
Creep 409
Fire 378 External Causes of Slope Failures 410
Fire 379 In Greater Depth: Energy, Force, Work, Power,
What Is Fire? 380 and Heat 411
The Need for Fire 381 Water in its External Roles 412
The Fire Triangle 381 Internal Causes of Slope Failures 412
A Classic Disaster: The Burning of Rome, 64 ce 382 Inherently Weak Materials 412
The Stages of Fire 382 Water in Its Internal Roles 413
Side Note: An Ancient View of Fire 383 In Greater Depth: Analysis of Slope Stability 415
The Spread of Fire 384 Decreases in Cohesion 415
Fuel 384 A Classic Disaster: Vaiont Landslide,
Wind 385 Italy, 1963 416
Topography 385 Adverse Geologic Structures 417
Fire Behavior 385 Triggers of Mass Movements 418
The Fuels of Fire 387 Classification of Mass Movements 418
Grasses 387 Falls 418
Shrubs 387 Yosemite National Park, California 419
Forests 388 Slides 419
Houses 389 Rotational Slides 420
Fire Weather and Winds 389 Translational Slides 422
Cold-Front Winds 389 Flows 424
Downslope Winds 390 Portuguese Bend, California, Earthflow 424
Local Winds 390 La Conchita, California, Slump and Debris Flows,
Wind and Fire in the Great Lakes 1995 and 2005 426
Region 390 Long-Runout Debris Flows 426
Wind and Fire in California 392 Snow Avalanches 431
Home Design and Fire 395 Submarine Mass Movements 433

Contents   xi
 Mitigation 434 Side Note: Dwarf Planets 459
Reshaping Topography 434 Comets 460
Strengthening Slopes 434 Rates of Meteoroid Influx 462
Draining Water 435 In Greater Depth: Shoemaker-Levy 9 Comet
Controlling Erosion 436 Impacts on Jupiter 463
Subsidence 437 Cosmic Dust 464
Catastrophic Subsidence 437 Shooting Stars 464
Slow Subsidence 437 Meteorites 464
In Greater Depth: How to Create a Cave 438 The Crater-Forming Process 465
Summary 441; Terms to Remember 441; Questions Crater-Forming Impacts 467
for Review 441; Questions for Further Thought 442 Meteor Crater, Arizona 468
Impact Origin of Chesapeake Bay 469
CHAPTER 16 The End Cretaceous Impact 469
Evidence of the End Cretaceous Impact 471
Coastal Processes and Hazards 443
Site of the End Cretaceous Impact 471
Sand 444
Size and Velocity of Impactor 471
Summer Versus Winter Beaches 445
Angle of Impact 471
Waves 445
Problems for Life from the End Cretaceous
Rip Currents 445
Impact 471
Side Note: Shark-Attack Deaths 447 Biggest Events of the 20th and 21st
Wave Refraction 447 Centuries 472
Longshore Drift 447 Tunguska, Siberia, 1908 472
Tides 448 Biggest “Near Events” 474
Tidal Bores 448 Frequency of Large Impacts 474
Coastal-Control Structures 448 Lifetime Risks of Impact 475
In Greater Depth: Gravity and Tides 449 Prevention of Impacts 476
Seawalls 449 Summary 477; Terms to Remember 478;
Cliff Armoring 450 Questions for Review 478; Questions for Further
Thought 478
Groins and Jetties 451
Breakwaters 452
Massive Structures in Future 452 Epilogue: Mass Extinctions 479
The Fossil Record 479
Side Note: You Can Never Do Just One Thing 453
Mother Nature At Work 453
Mass Extinctions 480
Summary 454; Terms to Remember 454; Questions In Greater Depth: Causes of Mass Extinctions 482
for Review 454; Questions for Further Thought 454 The Current Mass Extinction 482
In Greater Depth: La Brea Tar Pits, Metropolitan
CHAPTER 17 Los Angeles 484

Impacts with Space Objects 455 Glossary G-1

Energy and Impacts 456 Credits C-1
Impact Scars 457 Index I-1
Sources of Extraterrestrial Debris 458
Asteroids 458

xii   Contents
 Preface

Why Study Natural Disasters? ∙ Chapter 3: New In Greater Depth section compares seis-
mic waves of earthquakes versus nuclear bomb blast waves.
Natural disasters occur every day and affect the lives of ∙ Chapter 4: Expanded text on 2011 Japan earthquake;
millions of people each year. Many students have been
­ added the 2015 Nepal earthquake; rewrite earthquakes
affected by earthquakes or tornadoes or hurricanes or floods in the Holy Land.
or landslides or wildfires or other events. They are interested ∙ Chapter 5: New section on earthquake early warning
in lectures that explain these processes, and lively discus- system; expanded section on human-triggered earth-
sions commonly ensue. quakes, fracking and the U.S. economy; added Side
During decades of teaching courses at San Diego State Note explaining trial of Italian scientists over lack of
University, I found that students have an innate curiosity warning before L’Aquila earthquake.
about “death and destruction”; they want to know why natu- ∙ Chapter 6: Major expansion of flood basalts to include
ral disasters occur. Initiation of a Natural Disasters course their role in mass extinctions; major rewrite of Side
led to skyrocketing enrollments that now exceed 5,000 stu- Note How a Geyser Erupts with new data from Old
dents per year. Some of these experiences are described in a Faithful, new photo and new figure.
Journal of Geoscience Education article by Pat Abbott and ∙ Chapter 7: Describe surprise eruption and deaths on
Ernie Zebrowksi [v 46 (1998), pp. 471–75]. Mount Ontake, Japan; Add new In Greater Depth
explaining new understanding of the rapid assembly
and rise of magma bodies.
∙ Chapter 8: Expand description of 2011 Japanese tsunami.
Themes and Approach ∙ Chapter 10: New images of tornadoes, hail, lightning.
This textbook focuses on explaining how the normal pro- ∙ Chapter 11: Expands on Hurricane Sandy and trans-
cesses of the Earth concentrate their energies and deal heavy formation to a post-tropical cyclone. Adds In Greater
blows to humans and their structures. The following themes Depth on How to Build a Home Near the Coastline.
are interwoven throughout the book: ∙ Chapter 12: Covers IPCC Assessment Report 5.
Expanded discussion of Arctic Ocean sea ice. Added
∙ Energy sources underlying disasters
21st-century sea-level rise, ocean acidification and
∙ Plate tectonics
fisheries.
∙ Climate change
∙ Chapter 13: Major rewrite of Red River of the North.
∙ Earth processes operating in rock, water, and atmosphere
Increased discussion of runoff reduction.
∙ Significance of geologic time
∙ Chapter 14: Adds information about houses as fuel.
∙ Complexities of multiple variables operating sim­u­l­taneously
∙ Chapter 15: Adds coverage of Oso, Washington land-
∙ Detailed and interesting case histories
slide and debris flow. Expanded discussion of landslide
mitigation: reshaping topography; strengthening slopes;
draining water.
New to This Edition ∙ Chapter 16: Adds deaths by shark bite. Building of mas-
sive structures to protect U.S. cities from sea-level rise
∙ Many of the Tables and Figures have been updated and versus Maldives protected by Mother Nature.
more than 60 new ones have been added. ∙ Chapter 17: Cover Chelyabinsk meteor explosion. First
∙ Chapter 1: Extensive updating of all disaster and demo- landings on planets, their moons; asteroid; comet.
graphic data. ∙ Epilogue: Expansion of causes of mass extinctions.
∙ Chapter 2: Isostasy coverage expanded with new figure. Added text on Australia and New Zealand.
 Final PDF to printer

Acknowledgments SUNY–Stony Brook, Christiane Stidham

Texas State University, Philip Suckling
I am deeply appreciative of the help given by others to make The Arizona Geological Survey, Michael Conway
this book a reality. The photograph collection in the book The Ohio State University, Michael Barton
is immeasurably improved by the aerial photographs gener- Tulane University, Stephen A. Nelson
ously given by the late John S. Shelton, the greatest geolo- University at Albany, Michael G. Landin
gist photographer of them all. Please see John’s classic book University of British Columbia, Roland Stull
Geology Illustrated. University of California–Santa Barbara, Cathy Busby
The quality of the book was significantly improved University of California Santa Cruz, Thorne Lay
by the insights provided by comments from the following University of California–Davis, John F. Dewey
reviewers: University of California–Riverside, Peter Sadler
University of California–San Diego, Gabi Laske
Baylor University, John Dunbar University of Colorado–Boulder, Charles R. Stern
California State Polytechnic University–Pomona, University of Colorado–Colorado Springs, Paul K. Grogger
Jon Nourse University of Colorado, Alan Lester
California State University–Fullerton, Stephen I. Wareham University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign,
California State University–Los Angeles, Wang-Ping Chen
Hassan Rezaie Boroon University of Kansas, David Braaten
California State University, Los Angeles, Richard W. Hurst University of Kansas, Don Steeples
California State University, Sacramento, Lisa Hammersley University of Kentucky–Lexington, Kevin Henke
Chandler–Gilbert Community College, John Dassinger University of Michigan, Youxue Zhang
Colby College, James Rodger Fleming University of Nebraska at Kearney, Jeremy S. Dillon
College of Southern Idaho, Shawn P. Willsey University of Nebraska–Kearney, A. Steele Becker
Dartmouth College, Leslie Sonder University of Nebraska–Kearney, Jean Eichhorst
Erie Community College, Buffalo State College, University of Nebraska–Kearney, Stanley Dart
Karen S. Wehn University of Nebraska–Kearney, Vijendra Boken
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Edward Catanzaro University of North Carolina–Greensboro, John Hidore
Fort Lewis College, David Gonzales University of Oklahoma, Judson Ahern
Grand Valley State University, Patrick Colgan University of Portland, Robert Butler
Illinois State University, Robert S. Nelson University of Southern California, John P. Wilson
Indiana University, Bingming Shen-Tu University of Wisconsin–LaCrosse, George Hupper
Lindenwood University, Sandra Allen Utah State University–Logan, Sue Morgan
Manchester Community College, Eszter Samodai Washington University–St. Louis, Carol Prombo
Minnesota State University–Mankato, Cecil S. Keen Yale University, David Bercovici
North Hennepin Community College, John Dooley
Northeastern University, Jennifer Cole Special thanks to the following individuals who wrote and/or
Northeastern University, Langdon D. Clough reviewed learning goal-oriented content for LearnSmart.
Penn State University–Altoona, Timothy J. Dolney
Pennsylvania State University, Kevin P. Furlong California State University–Sacramento, Lisa Hammersley
Radford University, Jonathan Tso Northern Arizona University, Sylvester Allred
Rio Hondo Junior College, Michael Forrest Roane State Community College, Arthur C. Lee
Salisbury University, Brent R. Skeeter
San Diego State University, Jim Rickard I sincerely appreciate the talents and accomplishments of
San Diego State University, Victor E. Camp the McGraw-Hill professionals in Dubuque who took my
San Francisco State University, Bridget James ­manuscript and produced it into this book. For the short-
San Francisco State University, Mary Leech comings that remain in the book, I alone am responsible. I
San Francisco State University, Oswaldo Garcia welcome all comments, pro and con, as well as suggested
Sonoma State University, Terry Wright revisions.
Southeast Arkansas University, Steven Sumner
Southeast Missouri State University, Ernest L. Kern Pat Abbott
St. Cloud State University, Alan Srock [email protected]

xiv   Preface

abb22983_fm_i-xvi.indd xiv 11/03/15 07:51 PM

 ®

Required=Results

McGraw-Hill Connect®
Learn Without Limits
Connect is a teaching and learning platform
that is proven to deliver better results for
students and instructors.
Connect empowers students by continually
adapting to deliver precisely what they
need, when they need it and how they
need it, so your class time is more engaging
and effective.

Using Connect improves passing rates

by 10.8% and retention by 16.4%.
88% of instructors who use Connect require
it; instructor satisfaction increases by 38%
when Connect is required.

Analytics
Connect Insight®
Connect Insight is Connect’s new one-of-a-kind
visual analytics dashboard—now available for
both instructors and students—that provides
at-a-glance information regarding student
performance, which is immediately actionable. By presenting
assignment, assessment, and topical performance results together
with a time metric that is easily visible for aggregate or individual Students can view
results, Connect Insight gives the user the ability to take a just-in-
time approach to teaching and learning, which was never before
their results for any
available. Connect Insight presents data that empowers students Connect course.
and helps instructors improve class performance in a way that is
efficient and effective.

Mobile
Connect’s new, intuitive mobile interface gives students
and instructors flexible and convenient, anytime–anywhere
access to all components of the Connect platform.
Adaptive
THE FIRST AND ONLY
ADAPTIVE READING
EXPERIENCE DESIGNED
TO TRANSFORM THE
WAY STUDENTS READ

More students earn A’s and

B’s when they use McGraw-Hill
Education Adaptive products.

SmartBook®
Proven to help students improve grades and
study more efficiently, SmartBook contains
the same content within the print book, but
actively tailors that content to the needs of the
individual. SmartBook’s adaptive technology
provides precise, personalized instruction on
what the student should do next, guiding the
student to master and remember key concepts,
targeting gaps in knowledge and offering
customized feedback, driving the student toward
comprehension and retention of the subject
matter. Available on smartphones and tablets,
SmartBook puts learning at the student’s
fingertips—anywhere, anytime.

Over 4 billion questions have been

answered making McGraw-Hill
Education products more intelligent,
reliable & precise.
 Internal Energy
Prologue:
Energy Flows

External Energy
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Earth is a planet with varied flows of energy that can cause problems
for humans. After studying the Prologue you should
• know the main flows of energy on Earth.
• comprehend how internal energy creates land.
• understand how external energy destroys land.
• be familiar with the rock cycle.
Earth, the Blue Marble as seen from Apollo 17 in 1972.
NASA.

Gravity
isasters occur where and when Earth’s natural pull of gravity helps bring atmospheric moisture down
processes concentrate energy and then release it,
­ as snow and rain. On short timescales, these processes
killing life and causing destruction. Our interest is especially bring us hail, lightning, tornadoes, hurricanes, and
high when this energy deals heavy blows to humans. As floods. Solar energy is also stored in plant tissue to
the growth of the world’s population accelerates, more and be released later as fire. On a long timescale, the Sun
more people find themselves living in close proximity to and gravity power the agents of erosion—glaciers,
Earth’s most hazardous places. The news media increasingly streams, underground waters, winds, ocean waves and
present us with vivid images and stories of the great losses currents—that wear away the continents and dump
of human life and destruction of property caused by natural their broken pieces and dissolved remains into the seas.
disasters. As the novelist Booth Tarkington remarked: “The Solar radiation is the primary energy source because it

Impacts
history of catastrophe is the history of juxtaposition.”* evaporates and elevates water, but gravity is the imme-
To understand the natural processes that kill and maim diate force that drives the agents of erosion.
unwary humans, we must know about the energy sources Gravity is an attractional force between bodies.
that fuel them. Earth is an active planet with varied flows At equal distances, the greater the mass of a body,
of energy from: (1) Earth’s interior, (2) the Sun, (3) gravity, the greater its gravitational force. The relatively great
and (4) impacts with asteroids and comets. mass of the Earth has powerful effects on smaller
Internal energy flows unceasingly from Earth’s interior masses such as ice and rock, causing ice to flow as
toward the surface. The interior of the Earth holds a tremen- avalanches and hillsides to fail in landslides and
dous store of heat accumulated from the initial impacts that debris flows.
formed our planet and from the heat released by the ongoing An energy source for disasters arrives when visi-
decay of radioactive isotopes. Over short time spans, internal tors from outer space—asteroids and comets—impact
energy is released as eruptions from ­volcanoes and as seismic Earth. Impacts were abundant early in Earth’s history. In
waves from earthquakes. Over longer intervals of geologic recent times, collisions with large bodies have become
time, the flow of internal energy has produced our ­continents, infrequent. However, asteroids and comets traveling at
oceans, and atmosphere. On a planetary scale, this outflow of velocities in excess of 30,000 mph occasionally slam into
internal energy causes continents to drift and collide, thus con- Earth, and their deep impacts have global effects on life.
structing mountain ranges and elevated plateaus. The sequence of chapters in this book is based on
External energy is delivered by the Sun. About a quarter energy sources, in the following order: Earth’s internal
of the Sun’s energy that reaches Earth evaporates and lifts energy, external energy supplied by the Sun, gravity,
water into the atmosphere. At the same time, the constant and impacts with space objects.
Earth’s internal energy fuels volcanism, as well as providing the energy for earthquakes. Here, lava flows from the
Pu’u O’o-Kupaianaha eruption in Hawaii meet the ocean, 18 August 2010.
Michael Poland/U.S. Geological Survey.

External energy from the Sun fuels tornadoes, as well as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. Here, a powerful tornado spins
down from a supercell thunderstorm and travels along an Oklahoma road.
© 2010 Willoughby Owen/Getty Images RF.

2   Prologue: Energy Flows

The pull of gravity brings down hillsides. This earthquake-
triggered debris flow destroyed homes and killed 585 people in
Santa Tecla, El Salvador on 13 January 2001.
Ed Harp/U.S. Geological Survey.

High-velocity comets and asteroids can impact the

Earth and kill life worldwide. Here the Comet Lovejoy nears
Processes of Construction Earth’s horizon behind airglow in the night sky.
Photo by NASA astronaut Dan Burbank from the International Space
versus Destruction Station on 22 December 2001.

Another way to look at energy flow on Earth is by under-

standing the rock cycle and the construction and destruc-
tion of land (continents). Energy flowing up from Earth’s
interior melts rock that rises as magma and then cools and ocean. These external, energy-fed processes of d­ estruction
crystallizes to form igneous rocks; they are plutonic rocks work to erode the lands and dump the debris into the oceans.
if they solidify at depth or volcanic rocks if they cool and These land-building and land-destroying processes
harden at the surface. These newly formed rocks help cre- result from Earth’s energy flows that create, transform,
ate new land. Igneous-rock formation is part of the internal and destroy rocks as part of the rock cycle. Think about the
energy–fed processes of construction that create and ele- incredible amount of work done by the prodigious flows
vate landmasses. of energy operating over the great age of Earth. There is
At the same time, the much greater flow of energy from a long-term conflict raging between the internal-energy-
the Sun, working with gravity, brings water that weath- powered processes of construction, which create and
ers the igneous rocks exposed at or near the surface and elevate landmasses, and the external-energy-powered pro-
breaks them down into sediments. Physical weathering cesses of destruction, which erode the continents and dump
disintegrates rocks into gravel and sand, while ­chemical the continental debris into the ocean basins. Visualize this:
­weathering decomposes rock into clay minerals. The If the interior of Earth cooled and the flow of internal
sediments are eroded, transported mostly by water, and energy stopped, mountain building and uplift also would
then deposited in topographically low areas, ultimately the stop; then the ongoing solar-powered agents of e­rosion

Processes of Construction versus Destruction    3

 Solar
energy

Weathering and Erosion

Transportation
Deposition

Cool at SEDIMENTS
surface =
Volcanic
IGNEOUS Uplift Burial compaction
ROCKS and cementation

Cool at SEDIMENTARY
depth = ROCKS
Me
Plutonic tam Up
orp lift
IGNEOUS hism Heat and pressure =
ROCKS metamorphism

METAMORPHIC
ROCKS
Rise of
MAGMA Heat from radioactive-
element decay

The rock cycle. Follow the cycle clockwise beginning in the lower left. Magma cools and solidifies to form igneous rocks.
Rocks exposed at Earth’s surface break down and decompose into sediments (e.g., gravel, sand, clay), which are transported,
deposited, and hardened into sedimentary rock. With increasing burial depth, temperature and pressure increase, causing
changes (or metamorphosis) of rocks into metamorphic rocks.

would reduce the continents to sea level in just 45 million

years. There would be no more continents, only an ocean-
Terms to Remember
covered planet. asteroid 1 igneous rock 3
Think about the timescales involved in eliminating atmosphere 1 lightning 1
chemical weathering 3 magma 3
the continents. At first reading, 45 million years of ero-
clay minerals 3 physical weathering 3
sion may seem like an awfully long time, but the Earth
comet 1 plutonic rocks 3
is more than 4.5 billion years old. The great age of Earth continent 1 processes of construction 3
indicates that erosion is powerful enough to have leveled debris flow 1 processes of destruction 3
the continents about 100 times. This shows the power of earthquake 1 radioactive isotope 1
the internal processes of construction to keep elevating old erosion 1 sand 3
continents and adding new landmasses. And woe to human glacier 1 sediment 3
and other life-forms that get too close to these processes gravel 3 seismic wave 1
of construction and destruction, for this is where natural gravity 1 tornado 1
disasters occur. hail 1 volcanic rocks 3
hurricane 1 volcano 1

4   Prologue: Energy Flows

 CHAPTER 1

Population
Natural Disasters
and the Human Population
“Mankind was destined to live on the edge of perpetual
disaster. We are mankind because we survive.”
—JAMES A. MICHENER, 1978, CHESAPEAKE., RANDOM HOUSE

LEARNING OUTCOMES
The human population is growing rapidly. Natural disasters are
causing great numbers of deaths and economic losses. After
studying this chapter you should

• recognize the differences between a natural hazard, a

natural disaster and a great natural disaster.
• be familiar with the processes that cause the deadliest
natural disasters.
• understand the relationship between frequency and
magnitude of natural disasters.
• know the size of the human population.
• understand the significance of exponential growth.
• recognize the demographic transition of human
populations.
• be able to explain the concept of carrying capacity.

OUTLINE
• Great Natural Disasters
• Human Fatalities and Economic Losses in Natural
Disasters
• Natural Hazards
• Overview of Human Population
• Future World Population
• Carrying Capacity

The world population of humans continues to increase

exponentially. Photo of shopping area in New Delhi, India.
© Dr. Parvinder Sethi
I n 2013, there were 150 natural disasters that claimed
20 or more human lives. They were primarily caused by
earthquakes, hurricanes (= cyclones = typhoons),
TABLE 1.1
The 16 Deadliest Natural Disasters in 2013
floods, winter storms and heat waves; they killed more
than 20,000 people. The 16 deadliest events are listed in Fatalities Date Event Country
table 1.1. As horrible as the 2013 death total is, it is mark- 7,345 11 Aug Typhoon Philippines
edly less than in 2010, when about 286,000 people were Haiyan
killed in two events alone (Haiti earthquake: 230,000; 5,748 14 Jun Floods India
­Russian heat wave: 56,000). All these disasters were the
760 6 Aug Heat wave United Kingdom
result of natural processes operating at high energy levels
for brief times in restricted areas. 531 1 Apr Heat wave India
399 24 Sep Earthquake Pakistan
388 1 Jan Cold wave India, Bangladesh

Great Natural Disasters 275 24 Aug Cold wave Peru

246 17 Jan Floods Mozambique,
The Japan earthquake and tsunami in 2011, the Haiti Zimbabwe
earthquake in 2010 and the Myanmar cyclone and China
earthquake in 2008 combined to kill almost 500,000 peo- 234 1 Aug Floods Pakistan
ple. They are examples of great natural disasters: these 230 15 Oct Earthquake Philippines
events so overwhelm regions that international assistance is 218 15 Sep Floods Cambodia,
needed to rescue and care for people, clean up the destruc- Vietnam
tion, and begin the process of reconstruction. Great natural
217 20 Apr Earthquake China
disasters commonly kill thousands of people, leave hun-
dreds of thousands homeless, and overwhelm the regional 200 5 Jul Floods China
economy. 174 9 Jul Floods India
Today, in earthquake-active areas of the world, several 169 13 Sep Hurricane Mexico
hundred million people live in buildings that will collapse Manuel
during a strong earthquake. An earthquake killing more than
  162 8 Nov Cyclone Somalia
100,000 people could happen any day in Teheran, Iran; in
Istanbul, Turkey; or in other large cities. Today, people by   17,296 Total deaths
the millions are moving to the ocean shores, where they can Source: Data from Swiss Reinsurance Company (2014).
be hit by tsunami, hurricanes, and floods. We need to learn
how to build disaster-resistant communities to lessen the
human fatalities and economic losses resulting from natural
disasters.
are concentrated, disasters can kill many more people during
each high-energy event.
Human Fatalities and
Economic Losses in Natural THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN
NATURAL-DISASTER DEATH TOTALS
Disasters As the global population of humans increases, the number
The 40 deadliest disasters in the 44-year period from 1970 of deaths by natural disasters is expected to rise, but the
to 2013 are shown in table 1.2. The most frequent mega- relationship has complexities. Analyses by Gregory van
killers were earthquakes (25) and hurricanes (8). Notice that der Vink and students at Princeton University show that
27 of the 40 worst natural disasters occurred in a belt run- between 1964 and 1968, about 1 person in 10,000 was killed
ning from China and Bangladesh through India and Iran to by a natural disaster. Between 2000 and 2004, even though
Turkey. Nine happened in the Americas but none were in the the population of humans doubled, the death rate by natu-
United States or Canada. ral disaster dropped to about 1 person in 100,000. Yet, great
What is the correlation between human population den- natural disasters still result in horrific death totals in some
sity and the number of natural-disaster deaths? The data countries. What relationships, in addition to population
of table 1.2 paint a clear picture: densely populated Asia size, explain the locations of great natural disasters? Van
dominates the list of fatalities. The Asian experience offers der Vink and students compared natural-disaster deaths to
a sobering view of what may befall the global population the levels of democracy and economic development within
of humans if we continue our rapid growth. Where humans 133 nations with populations greater than 1 million that

6    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 TABLE 1.2
The 40 Deadliest Natural Disasters, 1970–2013
Fatalities Date/Start Event Country
300,000 14 Nov 1970 Hurricane (Bhola) Bangladesh
255,000 28 Jul 1976 Earthquake (Tangshan) China
245,000 26 Dec 2004 Earthquake and tsunami Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand
230,000 12 Jan 2010 Earthquake Haiti
140,000 2 May 2008 Hurricane Nargis Myanmar
140,000 29 Apr 1991 Hurricane Gorky Bangladesh
88,000 8 Oct 2005 Earthquake Pakistan
87,500 12 May 2008 Earthquake China
66,000 31 May 1970 Earthquake and debris flow (Nevados Huascaran) Peru
55,630 15 Jun 2010 Heat wave and fire Russia
50,000 21 Jun 1990 Earthquake (Gilan) Iran
35,000 Aug 2003 Heat wave Europe
27,000 26 Dec 2003 Earthquake (Bam) Iran
25,000 7 Dec 1988 Earthquake Armenia
25,000 16 Sep 1978 Earthquake (Tabas) Iran
23,000 13 Nov 1985 Volcanic eruption and mudflows (Nevado del Ruiz) Colombia
22,000 4 Feb 1976 Earthquake Guatemala
20,103 26 Jan 2001 Earthquake (Gujarat) India
19,184 11 Mar 2011 Earthquake and tsunami Japan
19,118 17 Aug 1999 Earthquake (Izmit) Turkey
18,000 15 Dec 1999 Flooding and debris flows Venezuela
15,000 19 Sep 1985 Earthquake (Mexico City) Mexico
15,000 1 Sep 1978 Floods (monsoon rains in north) India
15,000 29 Oct 1999 Hurricane (Orissa) India
11,000 22 Oct 1998 Hurricane Mitch Honduras
11,000 25 May 1985 Hurricane Bangladesh
10,800 31 Oct 1971 Floods India
10,000 20 Nov 1977 Hurricane (Andhra Pradesh) India
9,500 30 Sep 1993 Earthquake (Marashtra state) India
8,000 16 Aug 1976 Earthquake (Mindanao) Philippines
7,345 8 Nov 2013 Hurricane Haiyan Philippines
6,425 17 Jan 1995 Earthquake (Kobe) Japan
6,304 5 Nov 1991 Typhoons Thelma and Uring Philippines
5,778 21 May 2006 Earthquake Indonesia
5,748 14 Jun 2013 Floods India
5,422 30 Jun 1976 Earthquake (West Irian) Indonesia
5,374 10 Apr 1972 Earthquake (Fars) Iran
5,300 28 Dec 1974 Earthquake Pakistan
5,112 15 Nov 2001 Floods and debris flows Brazil
  5,000 23 Dec 1972 Earthquake (Managua) Nicaragua
2,053,643 Total deaths
Source: Data from Swiss Reinsurance Company (2014).

Human Fatalities and Economic Losses in Natural Disasters    7

experienced five or more natural disasters between 1964 and cost. But the economic losses are greater than just dam-
2004. Democracy is assessed by the World Bank’s Democ- aged structures; industries and businesses are knocked out
racy Index, and economic development by gross domestic of operation, causing losses in productivity and wages for
product (GDP). employees left without places to work.
The Princeton researchers state that more than 80% of In 2013 there were 308 natural and human-caused disas-
deaths by natural disasters between 1964 and 2004 took ters with losses greater than US$95 million. The total eco-
place in 15 nations, including China, Bangladesh, and nomic losses were around US$140 billion. This is well below
Indonesia. For these 15 countries, 87% are below the the inflation-adjusted 10-year average of US$190 billion.
median democracy index and 73% are below the median
GDP. The correlation between high GDP and low death Insured Portion of Economic Losses
totals shows exceptions in Iran and Venezuela, two oil- The 40 greatest disasters between 1970 and 2013 from
rich nations with significant GDP but low democracy the insurance company perspective of dollar losses are
indices. These exceptions suggest a greater importance listed in table 1.3. Notice that 39 of the 40 most expen-
for democracy than GDP: the stronger the democracy sive disasters were due to natural processes. The list of
index, the lower the death totals from natural disasters. most expensive events is dominated by weather events
The mega-killer natural disasters of recent years fit this (32 of 40), whereas earthquakes contributed seven. Com-
trend also: Pakistan earthquake in 2005 (88,000 dead), pare the events on the 40 deadliest disasters list (see
Myanmar cyclone in 2008 (140,000 dead), China earth- table 1.2) with table 1.3.
quake in 2008 (87,500 dead), and Haiti earthquake in 2010 The locations of the worst dollar-loss disasters for the
(230,000 dead). insurance industry (table 1.3) are different from the worst
In a thought-provoking paragraph in their conclusion, locations for fatalities (see table 1.2). The highest insurance
van der Vink and students state: “Deaths from natural disas- dollar losses occurred in the United States (24 of 40), Europe
ters can no longer be dismissed as random acts of nature. (7), and Japan (5). Wealthy countries are better insured and
They are a direct and inevitable consequence of high-risk their people live in safer buildings.
land use and the failures of government to adapt or respond The extent of economic and insured losses may take years
to such known risks.” to become known. For example, the insured losses from the
January 1994 Northridge earthquake were listed at $2.8 billion
in February 1994, but they grew to $10.4 billion in January
HUMAN RESPONSES TO DISASTER 1995 and increased to $15.3 billion in April 1998.
Decades of social science research help us understand how
most human beings react to natural disasters, and the news
is good. Our behavior in ordinary times changes follow-
ing disasters. In day-to-day life, most people are primarily
concerned with their own needs and those of their imme- Natural Hazards
diate families; other relationships tend to be more super- Many sites on Earth have not had a natural disaster in recent
ficial. After a natural disaster, many people change from time, but are hazardous nonetheless. Natural hazards may
inward-directed concerns to outward-directed actions. be assessed as the probability of a dangerous event occur-
After an initial response of shock and disbelief, our emo- ring. For example, people migrate and build next to rivers
tions of sympathy and empathy tend to dominate. Per- that are likely to flood, on the shoreline of the sea awaiting
sonal priorities may be set aside and humanitarian and a powerful storm, and on the slopes of volcanoes that will
­community-oriented actions take over. People reach out to eventually erupt. Decades, or even centuries, may pass with
others; they give aid and comfort to strangers; they make no great disasters, but the hazard remains.
great efforts to provide help. Following a natural disaster, Sites with natural hazards must be studied and under-
people become better connected and cohesive; they expe- stood. Their risks must be evaluated. Then we can try to
rience a heightened and compelling desire to add to the prevent natural hazards from causing natural disasters.
common good. Remember: Natural hazards are inevitable, but natural
disasters are not.
In the process of mitigation, we make plans and take
ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM actions to eliminate or reduce the threat of future death and
NATURAL DISASTERS destruction when natural hazards suddenly become great
The deaths and injuries caused by natural disasters grab our threats. The mitigating actions taken to protect us may be
attention and squeeze our emotions, but in addition, there engineering, physical, social, or political.
are economic losses. The destruction and disabling of build- Another need for mitigation occurs after great disasters,
ings, bridges, roads, power-generation plants, and transmis- because people around the world tend to reoccupy the same
sion systems for electricity, natural gas, and water, plus all site after a disastrous event is done. Earthquakes knock cit-
the other built works of our societies, add up to a huge dollar ies down, and then the survivors may use the same bricks

8    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 TABLE 1.3
The 40 Costliest Insurance Disasters, 1970–2013
Losses in Millions
of 2013 US$ Fatalities Date/Start Event Country
80,373 1,836 29 Aug 2005 Hurricane Katrina USA
37,665 19,184 11 Mar 2011 Earthquake and tsunami Japan
36,890 237 24 Oct 2012 Hurricane Sandy USA
27,594 43 24 Aug 1992 Hurricane Andrew USA
25,664 2,982 11 Sep 2001 Terrorist attack USA
22,857 61 17 Jan 1994 Earthquake (Northridge) USA
22,751 136 6 Sep 2008 Hurricane Ike USA
17,218 181 2 Sep 2004 Hurricane Ivan USA
16,519 815 27 Jul 2011 Floods (monsoon) Thailand
16,142 181 22 Feb 2011 Earthquake New Zealand
15,570 35 16 Oct 2005 Hurricane Wilma USA
12,510 34 20 Sep 2005 Hurricane Rita USA
11,594 123 15 Jul 2012 Drought (corn belt) USA
10,313 24 11 Aug 2004 Hurricane Charley USA
10,031 51 27 Sep 1991 Typhoon Mireille Japan
8,924 71 15 Sep 1989 Hurricane Hugo USA
8,876 562 27 Feb 2010 Earthquake Chile
8,648 95 25 Jan 1990 Winter Storm Daria Europe
8,426 110 25 Dec 1999 Winter Storm Lothar Europe
7,856 354 22 Apr 2011 Tornadoes (Alabama) USA
7,587 155 20 May 2011 Tornadoes (Missouri) USA
7,112 54 18 Jan 2007 Winter Storm Kyrill Europe
6,602 22 15 Oct 1987 Storm Europe
6,593 38 26 Aug 2004 Hurricane Frances USA
6,400 63 17 Oct 1989 Earthquake (Loma Prieta) USA
6,274 55 22 Aug 2011 Hurricane Irene USA
5,909 64 26 Feb 1990 Winter Storm Vivian Europe
5,869 26 22 Sep 1999 Typhoon Bart Japan
5,548 — 4 Sep 2010 Earthquake New Zealand
5,240 600 20 Sep 1998 Hurricane Georges USA, Caribbean
4,925 41 5 Jun 2001 Tropical Storm Allison USA
4,872 3,034 13 Sep 2004 Hurricane Jeanne USA, Haiti
4,593 45 6 Sep 2004 Typhoon Songda Japan
4,250 135 26 Aug 2008 Hurricane Gustav USA
4,216 45 2 May 2003 Tornadoes USA
4,134 25 27 July 2013 Floods Europe
4,100 70 10 Sep 1999 Hurricane Floyd USA, Bahamas
3,979 59 4 Oct 1995 Hurricane Opal USA
3,926 6,425 17 Jan 1995 Earthquake (Kobe) Japan
3,406 25 24 Jan 2009 Winter Storm Klaus France, Spain
$512 Billion 38,096 Total deaths
Source: Data after Swiss Reinsurance Company (2014).

Natural Hazards   9
and stones to rebuild on the same site. Floods and hur- civilizations. Around the year 822 CE (common era), Popo’s
ricanes inundate towns, but people return to refurbish and large eruptions buried significant cities. Even its smaller
again inhabit the same buildings. Volcanic eruptions pour eruptions have affected the course of human affairs. In
huge volumes of magma and rock debris onto the land, 1519, Popo was in an eruptive sequence as Hernán Cortéz
burying cities and killing thousands of people, yet survi- and about 500 Spanish conquistadors marched westward
vors and new arrivals build new towns and cities on top of toward Tenochtitlan, the Aztec capital city. The supersti-
their buried ancestors. Why do people return to a devastated tious Aztec priest-king Montezuma interpreted the erup-
site and rebuild? What are their thoughts and plans for the tions as omens, and they affected his thinking on how to
future? For a case history of a natural hazard, let’s visit deal with the invasion.
Popocatépetl in Mexico. Popocatépetl has helped change the path of history, but
what is the situation now? Today, about 100,000 people live
at the base of the volcano; they have been attracted by the
POPOCATÉPETL VOLCANO, MEXICO rich volcanic soil, lots of sunshine, and fairly reliable rains.
Popocatépetl is a 5,452 m (17,883 ft) high volcano that Millions more people live in the danger zone extending
lies between the huge populations of Mexico City (largest 40 km (25 mi) away. The Nahuatl people consider Popo to
city in Mexico) and Puebla (fourth largest city in Mexico) be divine—a living, breathing being. In their ancient reli-
(figure 1.1). The volcano has had numerous small erup- gion, God, rain, and volcano are intertwined. Most do not
tions over thousands of years; thus its Nahuatl name, fear the volcano; rather, they believe that God decides events
Popocatépetl, or Popo as it is affectionately called, means and that with faith, things will work out. Thus, good oppor-
smoking mountain. But sometimes Popo blasts forth with tunities for farming, coupled with faith and fatalism, bring
huge eruptions that destroy cities and alter the course of people back.
Volcanic activity on Popo resumed on 21 December
1994 with eruptions of ash and gases. The sequence of
intermittent eruptions continues today. How do we evalu-
ate this hazard? Is this just one of the common multiyear
sequences of small eruptions that gave the volcano its
name? Or are these little eruptions the forewarnings of a
giant killing eruption that will soon blast forth? We can-
not answer these questions for sure. How would you handle
the situation? Would you order the evacuation of 100,000
people to protect them, and in so doing, have them aban-
don their homes, sell their livestock, and leave their inde-
pendent way of life for an unknown length of time that
could be several years? Or would you explain the conse-
quences of an unlikely but possible large eruption and let
them decide whether to stay or go? If they decide to stay
and then die during a huge volcanic blast, would this be
your fault?
It is relatively easy to identify natural hazards, but as the
Popocatépetl case history shows, it is not easy to decide how
to answer the questions presented by this volcanic hazard.
We are faced with the same types of questions again and
again, for earthquakes, landslides, tornadoes, hurricanes,
floods, and fire.

MAGNITUDE, FREQUENCY,
AND RETURN PERIOD
Earth is not a quiet and stable body. Our planet is dynamic,
with major flows of energy. Every day, Earth experiences
Figure 1.1. Popocatepetl in minor eruption. The cathedral
was built by the Spanish on top of the great pyramid at Cholula, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, storms, floods,
an important religious site in a large city that was mostly buried fires, meteorite impacts, and extinctions. These energy-
by an eruption around 822 CE. fueled events are common, but their magnitudes vary mark-
© Florian Kopp/imagebroker/Corbis RF. edly over space and time.

10    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 Natural hazards and disasters are not spaced evenly about estimates the return times for these killer events. On a yearly
Earth. Some areas experience gigantic earthquakes and basis, most low-fatality events are due to floods and torna-
some areas are hit by powerful hurricanes; some are hit by does, and their return times are brief, less than one year.
both, while other areas receive neither. High-fatality events are dominantly hurricanes and earth-
During a period of several years or even several decades, quakes, and their return times for mega-killer events are
a given area may experience no natural disasters. But given much shorter than for floods and tornadoes.
enough time, powerful, high-energy events will occur in Knowing the magnitude, frequency, and return period for
every area. It is the concentrated pulses of energy that con- a given event in a given area provides useful information,
cern us here, for they are the cause of natural disasters—but but it does not answer all our questions. There are still the
how frequent are the big ones? In general, there is an inverse cost-benefit ratios of economics to consider. For example,
correlation between the frequency and the magnitude of a given an area with a natural hazard that puts forth a danger-
process. The frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, ous pulse of energy with a return period of about 600 years,
involving little energy in each event. As the magnitude of an how much money should you spend constructing a building
event increases, its frequency of occurrence decreases. For that will be used about 50 years before being torn down and
all hazards, small-scale activity is common, but big events replaced? Will your building be affected by a once-in-600-
are rarer. For example, clouds and rain are common, hur- year disastrous event during its 50 years? Should you spend
ricanes are uncommon; streams overflow frequently, large the added money necessary to guarantee that your building
floods are infrequent. will withstand the rare destructive event? Or do economic
Another way of understanding how frequently the truly considerations suggest that your building be constructed to
large events occur is to match a given magnitude event the same standards as similar buildings in nearby nonhaz-
with its return period, or recurrence interval, which is the ardous areas?
number of years between same-sized events. In general, the
larger and more energetic the event, the longer the return
period. ROLE OF POPULATION GROWTH
A U.S. Geological Survey mathematical analysis of The world experiences significant numbers of great natural
­natural-disaster fatalities in the United States assesses the disasters and increasing economic losses from these events.
likeliness of killer events. Table 1.4 shows the probabilities The losses of life and dollars are occurring at the same time
of 10- and 1,000-fatality events for earthquakes, hurricanes, the global population of humans is increasing (figure 1.2).
floods, and tornadoes for 1-, 10-, and 20-year intervals, and Population growth places increasing numbers of people
in hazardous settings. They live and farm on the slopes of
active volcanoes, build homes and industries in the lowlands
of river floodplains, and move to hurricane-prone coast-
TABLE 1.4 lines. How have the numbers of people grown so large? The
present situation can best be appreciated by examining the
Probability Estimates for 10- and 1,000-Death
record of population history.
Natural Disasters in the United States
Likeliness of a 10-Fatality Event
Return
During During During Time
1 Year 10 Years 20 Years (in years)
Earthquake 11% 67% 89% 9
Hurricane 39 99 >99 2
Flood 86 >99 >99 0.5
Tornado 96 >99 >99 0.3
Likeliness of a 1,000-Fatality Event
During During During Return Time
1 Year 10 Years 20 Years (in years)
Earthquake 1% 14% 26% 67
Hurricane 6 46 71 16
Flood 0.4 4 8 250
Figure 1.2 The number of people on Earth continues to grow
Tornado 0.6 6 11 167 rapidly.
Source: US Geological Survey Fact Sheet (unnumbered). Photo courtesy of Pat Abbott.

Natural Hazards   11
Overview of Human times. Probably our most familiar example of exponential
growth occurs when interest is paid on money.
Population It can be difficult to visualize the results of exponential
growth when it is expressed only as a percentage over time,
The most difficult part of human history to assess is the
such as the very small growth rate of the human population
beginning, because there are no historic documents and
in 160,000 years or as 7% interest on your money for
the fossil record is scanty. In 2003, modern human fossils
50 years. It is easier to think of exponential growth in terms
discovered in Ethiopia were dated as 160,000 years old.
of doubling time—the number of years required for a popu-
Our species appears to have began in Africa about 200,000
lation to double in size given an annual percentage growth
years ago. The rate of population growth and the number of
rate. A simple formula, commonly called the rule of 70,
people alive early in human history were so small that they
allows approximation of doubling times:
cannot be plotted accurately on the scale of figure 1.3. The
growth from a few thousand people 160,000 years ago to 70
more than 7.34 billion people in the year mid-2015 did not Doubling time (in years) =
occur in a steadily increasing, linear fashion. The growth % growth rate/year
rate is exponential.
Learning to visualize annual percentage growth rates
in doubling times is useful whether you are growing your
THE POWER OF AN EXPONENT money in investments or spending it by paying interest on
ON GROWTH debts (especially at the high rates found with credit-card
The most stunning aspect of figure 1.3 is the peculiar shape debt). Table 1.5 shows how interest rates affect how quickly
of the human population curve; it is nearly flat for most of your money will grow.
human time and then abruptly becomes nearly vertical. The
marked upswing in the curve shows the result of ­exponential
growth of the human population. Possibly the least appreci- THE PAST 10,000 YEARS
ated concept of present times is what a growth-rate expo- OF HUMAN HISTORY
nent does to the size of a population over time. Exponential The long, nearly flat portion of the population curve in
growth moves continuously in ever-increasing increments; figure 1.3 certainly masks a number of small-scale trends,
it leads to shockingly large numbers in surprisingly short both upward and downward. The fossil record is not rich

6
Number of humans (in billions)

160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 10,000 Today

Years before present

Figure 1.3 Human population growth since its start about 160,000 years ago.

12    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 From about 1 CE to 1750, world population grew to about
TABLE 1.5 800 million. Growth occurred at an average rate of 0.056%
Doubling Times at Some Common per year, meaning that another 560 people were added per
Percentage Rates million per year.
Throughout the history of the human race, high rates of
Growth Rate Doubling birth were required to offset high rates of infant mortality
(% per year) Time (years) and thus maintain a viable-sized human population. The
0.02 3,500 18th century saw many of the intellectual advances that set
0.5 140 the stage for the present phase of cultural change. At long
last, the causes of many diseases were being recognized.
1 70
The health necessities of clean water, sanitation, and nutri-
1.2 58 tion led to the principles of public health being established.
2 35 Advances in the medical world, including immunization,
5 14 greatly improved the odds for the survival of individual
humans through their reproductive years. No longer were
7 10
many mothers and great numbers of children dying during
10 7 childbirth and infancy.
17 4 The 18th century saw death rates drop dramatically, but
birth rates remained high and population doubling times
dropped dramatically; thus population size soared. About
1804, the human population reached 1 billion; by 1922,
enough to plot a detailed record, but surely at times when
it had grown to 2 billion; in 1959, it reached 3 billion; by
weather was pleasant and food from plants and animals
1974, it was 4 billion; by early 1987, it was 5 billion; in
was abundant, the human population must have risen
1999, it reached 6 billion; it passed 7 billion in October
(figure 1.4). Conversely, when weather was harsh, food was
2011 (figure 1.6). Notice the continuing decline in the num-
scarce, and diseases were rampant, the human population
ber of years it takes for a net gain of another 1 billion people
must have fallen.
on Earth.
The nearly flat population growth curve began to rise
The 20th-century growth of the human population is
about 8,000 years ago, when agriculture became established
unprecedented and breathtaking. The number of humans
and numerous species of animals were domesticated. The
doubled twice—from about 1.5 billion to 3 billion and again
world population is estimated to have been about 8 ­million
to more than 6 billion. The increased population used 16
people by 10,000 years ago. After the development of agri-
times more energy, increased industrial output 40 times,
culture and the taming of animals removed much of the
used 7 times more water, caught 35 times more fish, and
hardship from human existence, the population growth rate
expanded the cattle population to 1.4 billion. The effect of
is likely to have increased to 0.036% per year, yielding a net
exponential growth is racing ahead. In his book Wealth of
gain of 360 people per million per year. This increased rate
Nations, published in 1776, Adam Smith said, “Men, like all
of population growth probably caused the human population
other animals, naturally multiply in proportion to the means
to reach 200 million people by 2,000 years ago.
of their subsistence.”
As humans continued to improve their ability to modify
the environment with better shelter and more reliable food
and water supplies, the world population grew at faster rates. THE HUMAN POPULATION TODAY
At present, the world population is growing at about 1.2%
per year for a doubling time of 58 years (table 1.6). The
1.2% gain is a net figure derived by measuring the birth
Harsh weather Good weather
Scarce food Abundant food rate ­(fertility rate) and subtracting the death rate (mortality
Disease rate). Even after subtracting all the human lives lost each
year to accidents, diseases, wars, and epidemics such as
Population

AIDS, the human population still grows by more than 80

million people per year. Each year, the world population
increases by about the total population of Germany.
The net growth of the human population can be grasped
by viewing it on short timescales (figure 1.7). There is a net
Time addition of 2.6 people every second, a rate comparable to a
Figure 1.4 Good weather and plentiful food cause upsurges full jetliner landing a load of new people every minute. The
in population; bad weather, disease, and scarce food cause monthly net growth of people is greater than the population
downswings in population. of Massachusetts.

Overview of Human Population    13

Side Note
Interest Paid on Money: An Example of Exponential Growth
Compare the growth of money in different situations (figure 1.5). 32,000
If $1,000 is stashed away and another $100 is added to it each 30,000
year, a linear growth process is in operation. Many of the processes
around us can be described as linear, such as the growth of our
hair or fingernails. 25,000
If, in contrast, another $1,000 is stashed away but this time
earns interest at 7% per year and the interest is allowed to accu-
mulate, then an exponential growth-rate condition exists. Not only
20,000
does the $1,000 earn interest, but the interest from prior years
remains to earn its own interest in compound fashion.

Dollars
Notice that an exponential growth curve has a pronounced Deposit $1,000,
upswing, or J shape. A comparison of the linear and exponential 15,000
one time,
curves in figure 1.5 shows that they are fairly similar in their early at 7% interest
years, but as time goes on, they become remarkably different. The
personal lesson here is to invest money now. Smaller amounts of 10,000
money invested during one’s youth will become far more impor- 00;
it $1,0 r
tant than larger amounts of money invested later in life. Individuals Depos 0 each yea
5,000 d $ 1 0
who are disciplined enough to delay some gratification and invest a d
money while they are young will be wealthy in their later years.
Albert Einstein described compound interest, the exponential Hide $1,000 in basement
1,000
growth of money, as one of the most powerful forces in the world.
0 10 20 30 40 50
Here is a riddle that illustrates the incredible rate of exponen-
Years
tial growth; it shows the significance of doubling times in the later
stages of a system. Suppose you own a pond and add a beautiful Figure 1.5 Amounts of money versus time. Compound interest
water lily plant that doubles in size each day. If the lily is allowed (exponential growth) produces truly remarkable sums if given enough
to grow unchecked, it will cover the pond in 30 days and choke time.
out all other life-forms. During the first several days, the lily plant
seems small, so you decide not to worry about cutting it back until
it covers half the pond. On what day will that be?

10 2050
2037
9
2024
8

2011
7 13
years
Population (billions)

1999
6 13
years
1987 13
5
years
12
1974
4 years
12
1959 years
3
13
1922 years
2 15
years
1804 37 years
1
118 years
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Year

Figure 1.6 Growth of the world population of humans. Notice how the time to add another billion people has decreased to date but is projected
to start increasing in the future.
Source: US Census Bureau.

14    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 TABLE 1.6
World Population Data, Mid-2015
Population Birth Rate Death Rate Yearly Doubling Time Projected Population
(millions) (per 1,000) (per 1,000) Growth % (in years) in 2050 (millions)
World 7,337 20 8 1.2 58 9,804
More-developed 1,254 11 10 0.1 700 1,310
countries
Less-developed 6,082 22 7 1.4 50 8,495
countries
Least-developed 938 34 9 2.4 29 1,887
countries*
Africa 1,171 36 10 2.5 28 2,473
Asia 4,397 18 7 1.1 64 5,324
Europe 742 11 11 0 — 728
Northern America 357 12 8 0.5 140 445
Latin America 630 18 6 1.3 54 776
Oceania 40 18 7 1.1 64 59
†
Subset of less-developed countries
Source: World Population Data Sheet (2015).

In 2015: World
population is growing: Per minute
165 people

Per second
2.8 people A Boeing 737 airplane Per day
237,209 people

Two extra-large sports stadiums

Projected over the Per month

next 5 years: 7.22 million people
440 million people

Per year
86.6 million people

Massachusetts
6.69 million people

United States and Mexico Germany

438 million people 81 million people

Figure 1.7 Growth of world population over differing lengths of time.

Source: Modified from US Census Bureau.

Overview of Human Population    15

Future World Population rates, the population explosion is not over. A growth rate of
1.2% per year will cause the world population of humans
Today, most of the more-developed countries have gone to approach 10 billion by the year 2050 (see table 1.6), an
through demographic transitions; they have gone from increase of another 3.5 billion people within 50 years. Popu-
high death rates and high birth rates to low death rates and lation growth is not evenly distributed around the world. In
low birth rates. But many less-developed countries have low general, wealthy countries have low or even negative rates
to moderate death rates and high birth rates; will they go of population growth. Many poor nations have high rates of
through demographic transitions? In demographic transi- population growth (figure 1.8).
tion theory, both mortality and fertility decline from high to An important factor in estimating future growth is the
low levels because of economic and social development. Yet age distribution of the population (table 1.7). Nearly 30% of
even without significant economic development, Popula- the population today is less than 15 years old, meaning their
tion Reference Bureau estimates of the rates of world popu- prime years for childbearing lie ahead. The century from
lation growth are dropping: from 1.8% in 1990, to 1.6% in 1950 to 2050 will see the world population grow from 2.5
1997, to 1.4% in 2000, and to 1.2% in 2015. What is caus- billion to about 10 billion people.
ing this decrease in fertility? It appears to be due largely The number of births per woman has a dramatic effect
to urbanization and increased opportunities for women. At on human population growth. Starting in the year 2000 with
the beginning of the 20th century, less than 5% of people a world population in excess of 6 billion people, look at
in less-developed countries lived in cities, but by the year three scenarios for population size in the year 2150 based on
2015, about half of the people were living in urban areas births per woman: (1) if women average 1.6 children, world
(table 1.7). This is a change from farmer parents wanting population drops to 3.6 billion; (2) if women average 2 chil-
many children to work in the fields and create surplus food, dren, population grows to 10.8 billion; (3) if women average
to city parents wanting fewer children to feed, clothe, and 2.6 children, population grows to 27 billion. The difference
educate. Urban women have greater access to education, between a world population of 3.6 billion or 27 billion rests
health care, higher incomes, and family-planning materials. on a difference of only one child per woman.
When presented with choices, many women choose to have
fewer children and to bear them later. Both of these choices
lower the rate of population growth. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
In the last 50 years of the 20th century, population grew The demographic transition model is based on the popula-
from about 2.5 billion to over 6 billion, an increase of tion experiences of economically wealthy countries in the
3.5 billion people. Even with the recent decreases in fertility past few centuries. Up through the 17th century, a woman

TABLE 1.7
Data Influencing Future Population, Mid-2015
Percent of Average Number Percent Percent of
Population of Age of Children Born Urban (cities Married Women Using
  <15     65+ per Woman >2,000 people) Modern Contraception
World 26 8 2.5 53 56
More-developed 16 17 1.7 77 59
countries
Less-developed 28 6 2.6 48 55
countries
Least-developed 40 4 4.3 29 32
countries
Africa 41 4 4.7 40 29
Asia 25 8 2.2 47 60
Europe 16 17 1.4 73 62
Northern America 19 15 1.8 81 73
Latin America 27 7 2.1 80 67
Oceania 24 12 2.5 70 58
Source: World Population Data Sheet (2015).

16    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 2050 10
Near billion
East
China India Rest Sub-

North America
of Saharan
Asia Africa

frica
North A
Latin America
Eastern Europe

Europe
2002 6.22
billion

Western
Japan
1950 2.56 billion people

Figure 1.8 World population by region: 1950, 2002, 2050.

Source: US Census Bureau.

had to bear several children to have a few survive to adult- Demographic transition
hood and replace the prior generation. Births had to be
numerous to compensate for the high rates of infant mor-
High

Very early Early Late After

tality. Beginning in the 18th century, discoveries in public
health, medicine, and immunization caused the death rate Bir
th
to drop dramatically. During this time, birth rates stayed ra
t
high, so overall population grew rapidly. As time passed and

e
people realized that most of their children would survive to De
adulthood, birth rates dropped and population stabilized at a
a
th
new and higher level.
ra
te
The demographic transition takes place in phases:
Low

1. Before the transition: high death rates are offset by high

birth rates to maintain a population.
2. During the transition: low death rates coupled with con- Niger (50:11) Ghana (34:9) India (22:7) China (12:7)
tinuing high birth rates cause population to soar Angola (46:14) Egypt (32:6) Colombia (19:6) Japan (8:10)
Uganda (43:9) Guatemala (31:5) Malaysia (17:5) Germany (8:11)
3. After the transition: low death rates combine with low
birth rates to achieve a stable population at a signifi-
Figure 1.9 Demographic transition. In mid-2014, the shifts in
cantly higher level. birth rates and death rates vary markedly between countries.
Birth and death rates are both expressed in number of people
Today the transition is taking place at different rates
per 1,000 each year. For example, Uganda has 43 births and
in different countries (figure 1.9). Most of the population 9 deaths per 1,000 people each year (43:9).
growth is occurring in the poorest areas of the poorest Data from Population Reference Bureau.
countries. Some of the wealthiest countries now have more
deaths than births each year.
deadliest earthquakes, such as the 250,000 people killed by
the Tangshan, China, event in 1976. The mega-killer earth-
URBANIZATION AND EARTHQUAKE quakes of the past 500 years occurred in China, Indonesia,
FATALITIES Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Italy, Japan, and Haiti—and they
During the past 500 years, global earthquakes killed about may occur there again.
5 million people. Average numbers of deaths were about An analysis of the past 500 years by Roger Bilham shows
1 million per century, or 100,000 per decade. These simple that, with an average population of about 1.5 billion people,
averages are misleading because they hide the effects of the there was one earthquake that killed nearly a million people.

Future World Population    17

Side Note
A Classic Disaster: Influenza
(FLU) Pandemic of 1918
In July 1914, a major war, eventually known as World War I, broke
out in Europe. The countries and empires involved contained more
than half the people in the world. When the war ceased in Novem-
ber 1918, almost 7 million soldiers had been killed in battle, along
with about 1 million civilians.
As bad as 8 million war deaths sounds, a far more deadly
natural disaster began during that time: the influenza pandemic
of 1918–1919. The flu pandemic killed about 50 million people;
this was 3% of the world’s population. Estimates of total deaths
range up to 100 million people. The influenza migrated around
the world in waves. In the United Kingdom, the first wave arrived
in the spring of 1918. In the fall of 1918, a longer-lasting, deadlier
wave of flu swept the world, followed in 1919 by yet a third wave.
Most flu victims were healthy young adults rather than the more
typical elderly or juvenile victims of influenza (figure 1.10).
World War I did not cause the flu, but the global movements
of millions of troops, weakened by stress and battle, increased the Figure 1.10 A typical scene during the 1918 flu pandemic. The
spread and deadly effects of the virus. Another 3 million soldiers Oakland Municipal Auditorium was used as a temporary hospital,
died, not from World War I battles, but from influenza. In 1918, allowing volunteer nurses to tend to the sick.
children skipped rope to this rhyme: Photo by Edward A. “Doc” Rogers. From The Joseph R. Knowland Collection at
the Oakland History Room, Courtesy Oakland Public Library
I had a little bird
Its name was Enza
I opened the window
And in-flu-enza.

But with population becoming five times larger at 7.5 b­ illion Viruses
people about the year 2016, million-death earthquakes Viruses are life in the simplest form. They are genetic mate-
may occur five times as frequently, or about one per cen- rial (DNA or RNA) coated by fat and protein. A virus might
tury. Most of the human population growth, by birth and by have only 4 genes, whereas a bacterium might have 4,000
migration, is occurring in cities in less-developed countries. genes, and a human 24,000 genes. Viruses cannot reproduce
Many of these people are living in poorly constructed build- by themselves; they must invade a host cell and cause the
ings in mega-cities. Million-death earthquakes are possible host to reproduce the virus.
in a growing number of mega-cities. Viruses infect many forms of life, including animals,
plants, and even bacteria. The same viruses commonly
DISEASE PANDEMICS exist in humans, pigs, and birds, and move easily between
them. There are an estimated 1 billion pigs and 20 billion
Throughout recorded history, deadly diseases have
chickens in the world. Because humans commonly live and
swept throughout the world, killing millions of people
interact with birds and pigs, the transfer of viruses between
in ­pandemics. For example, the bacterium Yersinia pes-
them is especially likely. Other transfers of viruses to
tis, transmitted to humans by fleas, caused the bubonic
humans include HIV/AIDS from chimpanzees and Ebola
plague—the Black Death that killed about 75 million people
from bats. When two different viruses enter a single cell,
in Europe in the 14th century.
their genes can form new combinations, creating a new
Viruses have also caused pandemics via smallpox,
type of virus. On the surface of a virus are molecules
HIV, polio, influenza, and other diseases. For example, in
shaped into unique configurations that might match a liv-
1918–1919, the influenza virus A (H1N1) spread around the
ing cell and allow entry, much like a unique key will open
world, killing about 50 million people. With the human pop-
a specific lock.
ulation now exceeding 7 billion people, with more than 50%
of people now living in cities, and with the rapid movement Influenza A Viruses Influenza A viruses cause recur-
of people worldwide via jet airplanes, the potential exists for rent epidemics and pandemics, as in 1918–1919. Type A
a new pandemic disease. viruses examined on the basis of their haemagglutinin (HA)

18    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 — Mettez-vous à sa place, M. Cougourdan, avec ce qui lui
arrive ?
— Il a donc gagné ?
— Mieux que ça, M. Cougourdan.
— Hérité peut-être ?
— Mieux encore : il a, en recarellant sa cuve, trouvé mille écus
de six livres dans un bas.
— Mille écus, sartibois ! et mon billet, qui justement tombe ce
matin.
— Pitalugue descend chez lui, M. Cougourdan, rattrapez-le avant
qu’il n’ait tout joué ou tout bu ; et, si voulez suivre un bon conseil,
courez vite.
Au Portail-des-Chiens, la marmite bouillait toujours et
l’impatience était à son comble, lorsque Cadet, qu’on avait posté en
sentinelle, vint tout courant annoncer qu’un vieux monsieur à
lunettes d’or, porteur d’un papier qui paraissait être un papier timbré,
tournait le coin de la rue.
— Monsieur Cougourdan ! s’écria la Zoun, il se trouvait là
précisément quand nous semâmes les haricots.
— C’est lui le sorcier, je m’en doutais, reprit tante Dide. Allons,
les enfants, tous en place, et pas un coup de bâton de perdu !
Silencieusement, les quinze Pitalugue mâles se rangèrent le long
des murs, armés chacun d’une forte trique.
Quelle émotion dans la chambre ! On n’entendait que les
glouglous pressés de l’eau, le cliquetis de la ferraille, et bientôt le
bruit des souliers de M. Cougourdan, sonnant sur l’escalier de bois.
Ce fut une mémorable dégelée, et les farceurs de Pertuis eurent
pour longtemps de quoi rire.
M. Cougourdan, homme discret, ne se plaignit pas.
Quant à Pitalugue, ayant retrouvé le soir, dans un coin de la
chambre, son billet de cent écus perdu par M. Cougourdan dans la
bagarre, il en fit une allumette pour sa pipe et dit à la Zoun d’un ton
pénétré :
— Vois-tu, Zoun, les anciens n’avaient pas tort ! Bonne semence
n’est jamais perdue, et la terre rend toujours au centuple les bonnes
manières qu’on lui fait.
Nobles et philosophiques paroles qui seront, s’il plaît au lecteur,
la morale de cette histoire !
 MES HIRONDELLES.

Le ciel est clair comme une perle, avril embaume sous ma

fenêtre, et les cloches, revenues de Rome dans la nuit du samedi-
saint, carillonnent à grandes volées… Pourtant quelque chose me
manque, il me semble que ce n’est pas Pâques encore.
Je vais vous dire : il me manque mes hirondelles, et d’aussi loin
que je me souviens, la première fois que les cloches m’annoncèrent
le retour de Pâques, l’air sentait bon comme ce matin, j’étais dans la
même chambre haute, à décliner rosa, la rose, sur la même table où
j’écris aujourd’hui, et par dessus ma tête, de la fenêtre ouverte aux
vieux nids maçonnés contre la grande poutre du fond, passaient et
repassaient en criant les hirondelles…
J’avais ici trois nids d’hirondelles, trois nids superbes, bâtis du
temps de mon grand père, il y a des siècles, et bâtis comme on ne
sait plus bâtir ; trois nids antiques, féodaux ; trois nids enfin qui
étaient aux pauvres nids modernes ce qu’un vieux castel de l’an
1200 est à nos misérables maisons blanches.
De temps immémorial la chambre et les nids appartenaient à la
même famille d’hirondelles, qui les quittait à chaque automne, pour
les retrouver intacts chaque printemps.
Un vrai fief, comme vous voyez, où seules elles avaient le droit
reconnu de tous dans la maison d’aller et venir partout à leur
caprice, et de faire, au besoin, subir à mes livres et à mes cahiers le
sort par lequel Jéhovah voulut éprouver le vieux Tobie.
Personne ne se plaignait d’elles, au contraire !
Myon elle-même, le croiriez-vous ? la cuisinière Myon, ce modèle
d’économie, n’avait pas hésité à casser une vitre exprès pour
qu’elles pussent entrer et sortir librement, à toute heure et les jours
de pluie.
Jaloux de tant de privilèges, est-ce qu’une nichée de moineaux
mal pensants ne s’avisa pas, certain hiver, de s’installer dans un des
nids et d’y faire son petit 93 ? Cette fois, quand les hirondelles
revinrent, elles trouvèrent la place prise. On allait se battre, mais fort
heureusement j’étais là, et je n’hésitai pas — champion de la bonne
cause — à chasser comme ils le méritaient, à l’aide d’une paire de
pincettes, ces effrontés pillards, acquéreurs de biens nationaux…

Donc voyant Pâques approcher et les lilas du jardin fleurir, depuis

plusieurs jours, je guettais le retour des hirondelles.
Ce matin, comme je travaillais, mon cœur a bondi tout à coup en
entendant un petit cri bien connu, avec un léger bruit d’ailes sur ma
tête… C’était elle, la première !
Elle a filé plus vite qu’une flèche et disparu, la sauvage ! puis elle
est revenue ; elle a fait alors deux ou trois tours par la chambre,
ayant l’air de s’enquérir si toutes choses étaient à leur place, saluant
d’un bref gazouillement, amical et joyeux comme un bonjour, le
grand bahut sculpté, le buste de d’Alembert sur la bibliothèque, les
cartes d’Amérique suspendues aux murs, et les nids, et les poutres,
et le plancher de briques rouges tout taché de blanc sous les nids.
C’étaient des battements d’ailes, c’était une joie ! Elle volait de çà de
là, faisant miroiter son ventre d’argent quand elle passait dans un
rayon.
Enfin elle s’est arrêtée à l’un des nids et s’est soutenue un
moment, sur ses ailes qui frémissaient, à la hauteur de l’ouverture.
Après avoir regardé dedans, chose singulière ! la voilà qui se remet
à voleter à travers la chambre, très inquiète et poussant de petits
cris ; plaintifs cette fois, je le comprenais bien. Elle est revenue au
nid, elle a essayé d’y rentrer ; mais à peine avait-elle passé la tête, je
l’ai vue battre en retraite aussitôt, puis ramener deux autres
hirondelles qui ont regardé à leur tour dans les nids, et qui après les
mêmes cris plaintifs, ont paru se consulter un instant et se sont
envolées avec elle.
Vous pensez si tout ce manège m’intriguait. Je prenais patience,
toutefois, espérant qu’elles m’allaient revenir ; mais combien
douloureux n’a pas été mon étonnement quand je les ai vues, toutes
trois ensemble (j’en reconnaissais une au bout de son aile teint en
blanc), commencer la construction d’un nouveau nid sous l’auvent
de la maison en face.
Il n’y avait plus à douter, les hirondelles me faussaient
compagnie.
Certes, même chez les oiseaux, l’ingratitude n’a rien qui
surprenne, mais quel motif avait pu déterminer mes infidèles à
quitter ainsi, pour une maison de hasard, ces beaux nids tout bâtis,
chauds comme un coin de rocher à Nice, ces nids connus, pleins de
souvenirs où trente générations d’aïeux s’étaient déjà abritées ?
Ma curiosité était excitée au plus haut point. Alors j’ai traîné la
table au milieu de la chambre, et posant une chaise dessus, puis
une seconde sur la première, les plafonds sont hauts dans nos
vieilles maisons ! au risque de me casser le cou, j’ai regardé ce qui
se trouvait dans les nids. Hors de l’ouverture du premier nid, quelque
chose passait que j’avais pris d’en bas pour un fétu de paille. C’était
une pâte d’oiseau. Je tire et je vois une hirondelle morte, toute
desséchée, et ployée dans ses longues ailes comme dans un linceul
de soie blanche et noire. Étonné, je glisse la main dans le trou…
Miséricorde ! j’en retire un second cadavre, un troisième, un
quatrième, et quoique ma main ne pût aller au fond, je sentais qu’il y
en avait encore.
Voilà donc pourquoi les nouvelles venues s’enfuyaient !
J’ai pris un marteau et j’ai brisé le nid.
Quatre cadavres ! cela faisait sept pour ce nid-là. Dans le
second, c’était plus affreux encore : accrochées les unes aux autres,
pressées, collées ensemble, elles étaient là huit ou dix, remplissant
tout l’intérieur, et quand la terre maçonnée s’écroula, elles tombèrent
en bloc comme d’un moule et roulèrent sur le parquet. Même chose
dans le troisième nid. Je venais de découvrir un cimetière, un vrai
cimetière d’hirondelles.
Impressionné fort péniblement, j’ai appelé la vieille Myon. Myon
aimait beaucoup mes hirondelles. Elle a d’ailleurs gardé les
troupeaux dans sa jeunesse, et connaît comme une famille les
bestioles des champs et les oiseaux des bois.
— C’était le 9 octobre de l’an passé, mon beau monsieur, me
raconta Myon, oh ! je me souviens du millième ! les gens achevaient
leurs vendanges qui se trouvaient un peu en retard. Nous étions,
nous autres, à votre petite vigne de Champ-Brencous, sous le rocher
de la citadelle. C’était de grand matin, il faisait un temps de miracle.
Cependant, malgré le beau soleil, je voyais des hirondelles qui
volaient au ras de terre, et cela m’étonnait beaucoup.
Peu à peu nous nous aperçûmes qu’il en arrivait de partout : il en
venait du Piémont, il en venait du Dauphiné, et toutes se réunissant
formaient en l’air, au-dessus du fort, comme un nuage. Puis le nuage
se rapprocha ; elles se posèrent tout près de nous, sur un gros
amandier poussé sauvage au pied des remparts.
Il faut vous dire, qu’à chaque automne, quand vient le moment de
partir, les hirondelles d’ici ont accoutumé de se réunir sur ce vieil
amandier, pour voyager de là toutes ensemble.
Le départ n’a jamais guère lieu bien avant le 15 ou le 20.
Cependant, quoiqu’on ne fût encore qu’au 4 du mois, les hirondelles
partirent, et nous nous dîmes que l’hiver s’annonçait précoce et
rude.
Elles n’avaient pas tort de tant se presser !
Le soir même, au soleil couchant, nous les voyions toutes
reparaître, et bien d’autres avec elles. Il y en avait tant et tant
qu’elles tenaient la moitié du ciel. La neige les chassait, une neige
du diable, qui venait d’en bas, des montagnes de Corse, poussée
par le vent.
La neige venant d’en bas ! Cela ne s’était peut-être jamais
produit depuis que le monde est monde. Mais il était dit que cette
année-là en cherchant le bon soleil, les hirondelles devaient
rencontrer l’hiver.
Si vous les aviez vues, les pauvres petites bêtes noires, arrivant
morfondues à travers la neige qui tombait ! Tout se tait quand la
neige tombe ; on n’entendait autre chose que leurs cris. C’était une
compassion.
Et malgré le froid, malgré le vent, malgré la neige, elles volaient
d’ici, de là, dans les tourbillons, espérant trouver leur nourriture.
Mais la neige avait lavé l’air, il n’y avait plus ni moucherons ni
mouches.
A moitié mortes de faim et de froid, les hirondelles venaient par
bandes s’abattre aux vitres des fenêtres, sur les cheminées d’où la
fumée les chassait, dans les trous des murs, le long des corniches,
partout où il y avait le moindre abri.
Des centaines et des centaines pendaient en grappes aux
rebords des toits, battant des ailes pour se réchauffer, comme un
essaim au bout d’une branche. Aussi loin que l’œil pouvait aller, tout
ce qui n’était pas blanc de neige était noir d’hirondelles.
— Quel désastre, Myon ! et comment firent les autres oiseaux ?
— Ceci, par exemple, je ne saurais vous le dire…
— Oui, que devinrent les coucous, les rossignols, les…?
— Je n’y avais pas songé ! Je me rappelle cependant avoir
remarqué, cette année, une chouette en plein hiver. C’était le soir.
Elle me passa tout près de la figure, sans aucun bruit ; car il faut dire
que ces bêtes-là comme les huppes, vous ont l’air de voler avec des
ailes de velours. Il faut donc croire que cette fois-là les chouettes,
surprises par le froid, n’osèrent pas se mettre en voyage. La
chouette trouve toujours à vivre ; quand il n’y a plus d’insectes ni de
petits à duvet dans les nids, il reste les rats des champs, les mulots
et les taupes, dont on peut encore s’accommoder. Sans compter que
s’il gèle dehors, il fait toujours bon au creux des arbres. Mais elles,
les hirondelles, que voulez-vous qu’elles deviennent en temps de
neige ?
 Les bonnes âmes leur ouvraient ; alors elles entraient en foule
dans les maisons, la grande misère leur ôtant toute crainte de
l’homme, et elles se laissaient prendre à la main, sans bouger,
comme des innocentes. Nous en avions cette chambre pleine ; tout
le monde venait voir cela. Par malheur on ne savait que faire pour
les nourrir. Si encore elles avaient voulu du grain qu’on leur
apportait. Mais rien n’est délicat comme ces bêtes… De cette façon,
tout ce qui ne périssait pas de froid périssait de faim.
Puis, lorsqu’on comprit qu’elles étaient perdues quand même, les
gens se mirent à les manger. Un vrai massacre ! On les ramassait à
pleines mains, à pleines corbeilles ; les femmes les rapportaient
dans leurs tabliers, et les gamins dans leurs chapeaux, en revenant
de l’école.
Cette abomination dura trois jours.
Le matin du quatrième jour, le soleil se leva très beau sur la
neige ; les vignes essuyèrent leurs feuilles, et les grappes ensevelies
montrèrent le nez à la chaleur.
On se remit à vendanger dans la neige fondante, les mains
gelées.
Cependant les quelques survivantes qui avaient résisté à ce
terrible hiver de quatre jours faisaient leur rappel, effrayées, et, sans
tenir conseil sur le vieil amandier, sans se rassembler, vite, vite, elles
partaient l’une après l’autre à la débandade, vers la bonne mer,
toujours chaude, qu’elles voyaient peut-être de là-haut.
Il était mort, on avait tué des cent et des mille hirondelles.
Notre maison en était noire ; j’en ai trouvé jusqu’au salon… Mais
aller mourir dans leurs nids, mourir de faim, pécaïré ! qui se le serait
imaginé ?
Myon se baissa pour ramasser dans son tablier les débris des
nids et les hirondelles mortes ; puis, les larmes aux yeux :
— Ah ! mon beau monsieur, fit-elle en se signant, Dieu nous
préserve de la famine !
 LE VIN DE LA MESSE.

« Avez-vous remarqué, me disait un soir, en buvant son vin cuit,

M. Ortolan, curé de Dromon-le-Haut, que le bon Dieu nous fait
toujours naître dans le pays que nous aimons le mieux ? » Et le saint
homme, là-dessus, ajouta un grand nombre de belles choses,
auxquelles je ne trouvai rien à répondre, sur M. de Voltaire, les
causes finales et les vues profondes de la Providence.
L’abbé avait raison : sa province est la mienne, et je trouve
comme lui que le plus beau pays du monde est cette partie du terroir
provençal où je suis né, qui s’en va remontant la Durance, en pleine
montagne, de Mirabeau à la frontière du Dauphiné.
Le ciel y est bleu comme à Nice, le mistral y souffle plus fort que
sous le pont d’Avignon, pas un coin de mur au soleil où un figuier ne
pousse, pas un coteau qui ne soit planté d’oliviers et de vignes en
rangée, sans compter qu’au temps des moissons, les amandiers
portent autant de cigales que de feuilles.
Mais quittez la vallée, écartez-vous à droite du côté des pentes
de Lure, à gauche vers les gorges de Chardavon, faites une lieue ou
deux en montée et tout aussitôt le paysage change : plus de figuiers
ni d’oliviers d’abord, puis plus d’amandiers ; bientôt les vignes elles-
mêmes disparaissent ; ce sont alors des champs de seigle, des
prairies avec leurs saules et leurs pommiers, des bois de chênes
peuplés d’écureuils, d’énormes roches couvertes de grands buis
humides, des vallons avec un village caché dans les noyers, et des
torrents roulant, sur un lit de marne polie, leurs eaux claires,
secouées, peuplées de truites, que saute de loin en loin le pont d’un
moulin ou la planche enchaînée qui mène à des lambeaux de pré
pendant çà et là entre les ravines.
 Plus haut, apparaissent les frênes, les sapins, les ifs, les
framboisiers ; et plus haut encore les montagnes pastorales
ensevelies six mois durant sous la neige, mais qui, une fois le beau
temps venu, se couvrent d’herbes fleuries et savoureuses où se
refont en une saison les grands troupeaux transhumants maigris par
l’hivernage.
Nulle part ce contraste n’est aussi sensible qu’entre les deux
communes de Dromon-le-Bas et de Dromon-le-Haut, ou, comme on
dit dans le pays, de Dromon-des-Vignes et de Dromon-des-
Framboises.
Dromon-le-Bas récolte du vin à foison, Dromon-le-Haut boit de
l’eau claire.
Chaudement tapi le long des roches, à l’endroit où le Riou
commence à s’élargir en approchant de la Durance, Dromon-le-Bas
se partage la vallée avec deux autres riches communes ; et ses
habitants, les jours de foire, descendent à la ville, sur leurs mulets,
force barils de vin, force jarres d’huile, des poules, des amandes, du
froment, et leurs porcs nourris à la glandée point trop gras il est vrai,
mais de chair agréable et ferme.
Perché une bonne lieu plus haut, à la source du Riou retréci, là
où la vigne ne pousse plus, Dromon-le-Haut n’a point tant de
richesses, et le plus clair de son commerce montagnard consiste en
menus objets de buis tourné, en plaques de grès pour les foyers et
les fours, en échelles, en manches de charrues dégrossis à la
hache ; ajoutez du miel, des œufs, du fromage de chèvre, quelques
bidons d’huile de noix, et suivant la saison, des paniers de
framboises ou des cornets de mouches cantharides récoltées sur les
frênes et que l’on vend aux pharmaciens.
Au pied du terroir de Dromon-le-Haut, sur une sorte de
promontoire qui domine toute la vallée inférieure, s’élève la chapelle
de Saint-Man-des-Lambrusques, ainsi nommée à cause des
grandes vignes sauvages, qui, de temps immémorial, ont poussé là
librement.
 Nulle part ailleurs je ne vis lambrusques plus belles ; autour de
Saint-Man elles ont tout envahi, recouvrant de leurs longues lianes
grises, de leurs étroites feuilles vert-sombre et de leurs petites
grappes à grain serré, les chênes pris d’assaut et les grandes
ronces qu’elles étouffent ; quelques-unes même, comme la gerbe
d’un jet d’eau, s’élancent droit en l’air, sans appui, aussi haut que la
séve peut les porter, puis retombent vers le sol en belle cascade de
verdure. La chapelle est aussi enfouie dans le feuillage que le
château de la Belle-au-bois-dormant, et l’on croirait en vérité que
toutes ces lambrusques ont poussé là sur la limite de Dromon-des-
Vignes, exprès pour narguer Dromon-des-Framboises, inépuisable
sujet de plaisanteries pour les villageois des quatre communes de la
vallée : « En fait de vin et de vigne, disaient-ils, Dromont-le-Haut ne
possède que les lambrusques de l’Ermitage. »
Mais cela ne les empêchait point d’avoir la plus haute confiance
au pouvoir de saint Man, saint qu’on ne trouve dans aucun
calendrier. Chaque année, le 27 octobre, les quatre villages venaient
en pèlerinage à la chapelle, pour entendre la messe de l’abbé
Ortolan, vénérer les reliques et dîner sur l’herbe près de la source.
C’étaient même les habitants de Dromon-des-Vignes qui, servitude
immémoriale gardée des siècles religieux, approvisionnaient gratis,
de vin pur et sans mélange, les burettes de M. le curé de Dromon-le-
Haut.

L’abbé Ortolan n’aurait donné son saint pour aucun autre saint du
monde, plus fier de dire sa messe annuelle, dans la chapelle, sur un
pauvre autel de simple pierre, que l’archevêque d’Aix en personne,
officiant à Saint-Sauveur au milieu des enfants de chœur et des
chanoines.
Aussi était-ce pour le bon curé une grande douleur de voir sa
chapelle se dégrader et tous les jours s’en aller en ruines. Il avait
bien mis près du bénitier un tronc avec cette inscription : — Pour
les réparations de la chapelle ; — mais les gens de Dromon-le-
Haut sont pauvres et avares ; ceux des communes d’en bas ont
leurs saints pour qui, comme de juste, ils gardaient leurs piécettes et
leurs écus, de sorte que le tronc restait vide et que le pauvre saint
avec ses lambrusques était de plus en plus mal logé.
Cela ne pouvait pas durer ainsi !

Le 27 octobre de l’année 1865, beau jour de saint Man, à midi

sonnant, après la messe, tandis que l’église était pleine, et que les
gens des cinq communes, hommes, femmes, enfants, les bossus et
les boiteux, adressaient leurs demandes au grand saint, agenouillés
un peu partout, sur les dalles de la chapelle, sous l’aile de hangar en
tuiles rouges qui sert de porche, et jusque dans l’herbe du petit bois,
car, tout le monde n’ayant pu entrer, il avait fallu célébrer la messe
portes ouvertes, l’abbé Ortolan monta en chaire :

« Mes frères…, dit-il. (Quel sermon, grand saint Man, la chapelle

entendit ! Par bonheur l’abbé parlait en provençal et les pierres
d’église ne comprennent que le latin.)
» Vous rappelez-vous, mes frères, ce matin, quand nous
descendions du village en belle procession et que nous sommes
arrivés à l’endroit où le chemin tourne, laissant voir toute la vallée
basse avec ses trois villages, ses prés, ses vignes et ses oliviers ?
» Le soleil se levait, mes frères, et donnait en plein dans le fond,
là-bas au diable, à travers le brouillard, sur les clochers neufs
d’Abrosc, d’Entrays et de Dromon-des-Vignes. Vous rappelez-vous
comme ils luisaient ? Tout à coup l’angelus s’est mis à sonner. Vous
n’avez pas entendu ce que disaient les cloches, tandis que vous
tombiez à genoux, dans la marjolaine, votre chapeau à la main,
comme des santons de crèche.
» Vous n’avez pas entendu ce que les cloches disaient, parce
que l’enfer vous bouche les oreilles…
» Hé ! là-bas ! gens de Dromon-le-Haut, ne regardez pas ainsi les
hommes des autres communes, c’est de vous que je parle, de vous
tout seuls.
 » Oui ! l’enfer vous bouche les oreilles, et c’est pour cela que
vous n’avez pas entendu ce que les cloches disaient. Mais je l’ai
entendu, moi, votre curé, et je vais vous le redire après avoir prié la
Vierge Marie et humblement invoqué les lumières du Saint-Esprit.
Amen ! »
Ici le curé s’agenouilla dans sa chaire, médita quelques instants,
en se couvrant les yeux et la bouche de son bonnet plié à plat, puis,
relevant la tête, il reprit :
« La plus lointaine, celle d’Entrays, chantait par dessus les
genévriers et les chênes : Din, dan, don…; din, dan, don ; je suis
saint Jean d’Entrays, saint Jean-Baptiste ; j’ai un oratoire tout neuf,
bien crépi, et quand mon curé dit sa messe, on le prendrait pour le
pape, tant sa chape est belle !
» Din, dan, don…; din, dan, don ; répondait le clocher d’Abrosc, je
suis saint Pierre, le bon saint Pierre. L’an passé, mes paroissiens me
donnèrent une grande cloche, claire comme un gosier de coq et
personne ne chante plus joyeusement que moi dans les vallons et
les rochers.
» Puis, tout près, tout près, une petite voix :
» Din, din…; din, din ; c’est moi sainte Madeleine, sainte
Madeleine de Dromon-des-Vignes ; on a peint d’étoiles mon autel et
les étrangers viennent de loin voir ma statue en faïence de Moustier,
blanche comme la neige, avec des broderies bleues tout le long du
manteau.
» Din, dan, don…; din, dan, don… Ah ! mes frères, mes enfants,
mes amis de Dieu, que vous dirai-je ? Les trois cloches sonnaient
encore et j’avais la tête pleine de leur bruit quand nous arrivâmes,
bannière en tête, devant notre saint Man qui sonnait aussi.
» Il sonnait, mais de quelle voix triste ! Et les larmes m’en sont
venues aux yeux, de voir, ô grand saint Man, ta pauvre petite
chapelle abandonnée, sa vieille porte qui tremble au vent, son
clocher dont la croix penche, ses vitraux brisés par où passent les
hirondelles, et ses murs en ruines, pleins de lézardes, dont les
lambrusques, les belles lambrusques du bon Dieu, ont grand’peine à
cacher la misère !
» Je ne veux pas dire que la dévotion vous manque, mes frères ;
je trouve même que vous en avez de trop, moi, qui, l’an passé, de
mon argent (j’en suis encore pour beaux quatre écus !) ai dû acheter
une cage en fer chez le serrurier de la ville. Vous savez bien la cage
que j’ai placée autour de la statue miraculeuse, sans quoi, taillant le
bois de vos couteaux, un morceau par-ci, un morceau par-là, mon
saint s’en serait bientôt allé en reliques.
» Non ! la dévotion ne vous manque point ; vous êtes bons au
fond, bons et pieux, mais, hélas ! l’avarice, la grande avarice vous
domine.
» Dieu me préserve de mal parler de personne ; pourtant, ce qui
est vrai, est vrai ; et c’est une honte à vous, une honte au pays de
laisser notre saint logé de la sorte, quand on voit superbement
vêtus, dorés comme des princes, et tout à fait aux honneurs du
monde, un tas de saints qui ne le valent pas.
» Ah ! je n’ai pas peur de le crier bien haut : notre saint Man est
un saint sans tache, net comme l’or, clair comme une perle, et qui
peut marcher la tête haute, car jamais personne ne lui a jamais rien
reproché.
» Qu’ils en disent autant s’ils le peuvent, continua le bon curé en
s’animant, tous ces fameux saints, qui font tant leurs fiers !
» Passe pour saint Jean ! c’était un brave homme ; à moitié
sauvage, par exemple, vêtu de peaux de bêtes, vivant au fond des
bois comme le loup et se nourrissant de sauterelles.
» Mais saint Pierre ? il a vraiment bonne grâce à mener tant de
bruit avec sa cloche neuve, lui qui, l’Évangile nous l’apprend, eut le
cœur de renier son maître trois fois !
» Quant à sainte Madeleine, avec son beau manteau, nous
savons tous ce que nous savons, et le meilleur est de ne rien dire…
Je crois d’ailleurs, mes très chers frères, que pour aujourd’hui, en
voilà assez de dit.
 » Du courage ! il faut que l’an qui vient saint Man ait une chapelle
aussi blanche que celle de saint Jean, une cloche mieux sonnante
que la cloche de saint Pierre et une plus riche statue que la statue
en faïence de sainte Madeleine.
» Parlons peu, et parlons bien, gens de Dromon !
» En descendant d’ici, je vais faire une quête ; saint Man vous
regarde et monsieur Ortolan aussi, souvenez-vous-en ! Que tout le
monde délie sa bourse et sorte les pièces blanches. Ceux qui, par
hasard, les auraient laissées dans les armoires, seront libres de me
les apporter au presbytère, jusqu’à jeudi !…
» C’est la grâce que je vous souhaite. »

La quête fut abondante ce jour-là. Touchés de tant d’éloquence

et fiers d’avoir un tel saint, tous les paroissiens de l’abbé Ortolan
donnèrent. Les liards, les sous et les piécettes tombaient dans le
plateau, dru comme la grêle sur les toits, et le bon curé, les larmes
aux yeux, songeait au jour où saint Man, tout de blanc crépi, se ferait
voir de loin, levant la tête au milieu des lambrusques.
Il ne s’aperçut pas, tant il avait d’émotion, que tous les hommes
des trois communes étaient sortis avant la fin ; il ne se rappelait plus
rien, ce brave abbé Ortolan, rien de rien, ni son sermon ni la façon
dont il venait de traiter saint Jean, saint Pierre et sainte Madeleine ;
aussi est-ce tranquillement, le visage serein comme sa belle âme,
qu’une fois la quête achevée et le surplis déposé dans la sacristie, il
se présenta sur la porte de l’église pour présider au déjeuner
traditionnel et recevoir, selon l’usage, des villageois de Dromon-le-
Bas, le petit tonneau contenant le vin de la messe.
Mais quel spectacle s’offrit à lui !

Sans l’attendre, étendus sur l’herbe autour du tonnelet, les gens

d’Abrosc, d’Entrays et de Dromon-des-Vignes déjeunaient.
 — A votre service, monsieur le curé ! crièrent-ils quand ils virent
l’abbé Ortolan paraître, et levant leurs verres tous ensemble, ils les
remplissaient ensuite à plein robinet.
Le pauvre homme n’en croyait pas ses yeux : ce qu’on buvait
ainsi sous les lambrusques, à deux pas du saint, c’était le vin, le vin
de Dromon-le-Bas, la provision du vin sacré, ses messes de toute
l’année !
— A la santé de saint Man ! hurlaient les forcenés.
— Qu’il se passe de nous puisqu’il est si grand seigneur !
Et trinquant au nez du curé :
— Vive saint Pierre, disaient-ils avec de grands éclats de rire,
saint Pierre le rénégat ! vive saint Jean, patron des loups ! vive la
belle Madeleine !

Peu de temps après cette aventure, j’eus occasion en courant la

montagne, de passer tout près de saint Man, et comme je sentais la
faim et que le soleil donnait fort, l’idée me vint d’aller manger un
morceau sur l’herbe fine, à la fraîcheur de la source.
L’endroit est connu des chasseurs, bien certains, lorsqu’ils
veulent faire une sieste tranquille, de ne rencontrer personne là, si
ce n’est peut-être un hoche-queue, un merle de rocher qui vient
boire, ou, à l’arrière saison, quelque grive en train de se griser dans
les lambrusques.
Comme je m’asseyais :
— Bien le bonjour ! me cria une voix.
Je levai la tête et j’aperçus, au haut d’une échelle, au milieu des
feuilles déjà rougies par l’automne, la tête réjouie du curé de
Dromon-le-Haut.
— Que diable faites-vous là, monsieur Ortolan ?
— Voulez-vous m’aider ? je fais mes vendanges.
Et retroussant sa soutane pour descendre, il vint me montrer un
panier déjà plus qu’à moitié plein de petits raisins noirs.
 — Ma foi ! à la guerre comme à la guerre, ma provision de vin est
finie, je n’ai pas le temps d’aller à la ville, et quant à en acheter ici, il
n’y faut pas penser… On vous a déjà raconté l’histoire de mon
sermon, fit-il en me voyant sourire, les gens d’en bas sont
mauvaises langues… Ah ! la messe va me paraître dure à dire
maintenant ; les lambrusques vous font un vin aigrelet !… Mais, bah !
il n’est pas mauvais de se mortifier un peu ; et puis, ajouta-t-il en
riant de son bon rire, les maçons viennent ici demain, et, n’en
déplaise aux envieux, mon saint Man aura sa chemise blanche.
 HISTOIRES D’ERMITES.

I
L’eau de La Salette.

Près de Canteperdrix, il y a une source, point miraculeuse, par

exemple ! mais vive, limpide, chantante, une vraie petite rivière qui
sort de terre tout d’un coup entre les racines d’un noyer et de deux
ou trois chênes, court dans les roseaux quelques pas, puis
s’élargissant en écluse, pour la plus grande joie des lessiveuses et
des grenouilles, fait marcher, sans que ces industries enlèvent rien
au charme du paysage, une buanderie, un lavoir à laine, la meule à
remouler d’un taillandier, et une modeste fabrique de chocolat.
Ce paradis de fraîcheur s’appelle Les Fontainious.
Très peuplé quand vient le jour, l’endroit est fort solitaire à
l’aurore, et l’on n’y entend, avant le bruit des battoirs et des roues,
que le murmure des feuilles au réveil, l’eau qui rit dans le barrage, et
le pépiement des mésanges qui viennent boire.

J’étais collégien. Un matin, profitant du sommeil de la

gendarmerie, je me levai dès l’aube, pour aller le long des
Fontainious chasser les oisillons aux gluaux. En arrivant, je trouvai
place prise. Une sorte d’ermite, point trop vieux, — qu’à son
chapeau sans cordon, à sa soutane d’emprunt, où maint bouton était
remplacé par des ficelles, vous auriez pu reconnaître pour membre
de cette bohème ecclésiastique des frères libres de saint François,
vrais bachibouzouks du cléricalisme, que les tonsurés n’aiment
guère, — une sorte d’ermite, arrêté près de ma source, se livrait à
un travail singulier. Il puisait de l’eau dans un bidon, puis en
remplissait un petit tonneau, monté sur deux roues et que traînait un
petit âne.

Il se troubla en me voyant et parut ennuyé d’être surpris. Mais

rassuré sans doute par mon jeune âge :
— Y a-t-il loin d’ici la ville, petit ?
— Non monsieur, passé le pont, vous y êtes.
L’ermite avait l’air bonhomme, nous nous liâmes ; et comme je
l’aidais à remplir son tonneau, il me raconta qu’il venait de Notre-
Dame de la Salette et qu’il descendait vendre l’eau miraculeuse en
Provence. Mais, à traîner le tonneau plein le long des routes, son
petit âne se serait crevé ; c’est pourquoi il avait pris cette habitude
de remplir le tonneau en entrant dans les localités et de le vider à la
sortie.
— Mais, dis-je, cette eau n’est pas sainte ?
— Qu’importe, petit, puisque la foi sauve !
Et, sa provision faite, il descendit vers Canteperdrix, tirant le petit
âne par la bride, clochetant de la main gauche et criant : — Qui veut
de l’eau ! Qui veut de l’eau de Notre-Dame de la Salette !

II
Comme quoi Saint Pouderous se trompa.

Vous ne connaissez pas saint Pouderous ?

Non !… Sans doute, vous le connaîtriez si le sort vous eût fait
naître, comme moi, sur un des rocs pelés et gris, égayés de
quelques maigres oliviers pour toute verdure, qui, vers les confins du
Dauphiné, bordent, plusieurs lieues durant, la Durance provençale.
C’est là que, de temps immémorial, saint Pouderous habite.
Je dis « de temps immémorial ». En effet, on ne sait rien dans le
pays de lui ni de ses origines ; et l’Église, tenant en véhémente
suspicion ce saint sans répondant ni aïeux, ne lui tolère une sorte de
culte que par horreur du bruit, esprit de prudence, et pour ne pas
indisposer des villageois plus superstitieux que dévots, qui, si on leur
enlevait leur Pouderous, seraient capables de ne plus croire en
Dieu.

Quel qu’il soit, bienheureux authentique ou non, saint local dont

l’histoire s’est perdue ou divinité païenne entrée en religion par suite
de la dureté des temps, ce Pouderous possède là-bas son ermitage
et sa chapelle, perchés tous deux à mi-côte, en belle vue de la
vallée, avec ce qu’il faut à une chapelle et à un ermitage : la cloche
suspendue à la fourche d’un tronc moussu, la croix rustique fichée
dans la fente d’un rocher, le bouquet de chênes, le petit jardin et la
source.

L’ermite est un ancien hussard venu là pour des peines de cœur.

Ayant laissé pousser sa barbe, il a maintenant l’air vénérable. Mais,
la barbe écartée, on trouve dessous un assez bon diable chez qui
l’amour de la solitude n’a pu éteindre un certain goût qu’il eut
toujours pour l’absinthe suisse. Il en possède un tonnelet dans le
creux d’un arbre dont il a fait sa cave, et en cède parfois, moyennant
finances, un verre au chasseur altéré, lui tenant tête volontiers, sous
son bouquet de chênes, près de sa source, et battant la purée verte
militairement, sans que la soutane le gêne.
L’heureux homme !
Il n’en est pas de plus populaire que lui dans toute la vallée ; et
quand on l’aperçoit, de très loin, descendant le sentier en zigzag,
avec son grand chapeau et sa grande besace, c’est fête au village,
les enfants accourent, les femmes sortent sur les portes :
— Bien le bonjour, ermite !
— Ermite, entrez donc boire un coup.
Alors il remercie le ciel et se félicite d’avoir renoncé aux
grandeurs militaires pour servir le saint remarquable qui s’appelle