AUTUMN 2017 / ISSUE NO.

WINDS OF CHANGE

TRUMP AND
THE WORLD
POPULISM
IN EUROPE

MIDDLE EASTERN
TUMULTS

ASIAN
DILEMMAS

Abdrakhmanov • Bardos • Davutoğlu • Dorsey • Fontaine • Friedman • Golkar

Graeff • Grant • Gvosdev • Kausch • Krichbaum • León • Mahbubani • Nair
Rabinovich • Reveron • Shapiro • Silaev • Sushentsov • Tharoor • Trenin
HorizonS ASEAN and Geopolitical Rivalries

ASEAN and
Geopolitical Rivalries
Caught Between the U.S. and China
Kishore Mahbubani and Amrita V. Nair

Photo: Guliver Image/Getty Images

ELATIONS between the United vulnerable candidates will be the Associa-
States and China were always tion of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
destined to end up in difficult
territory. Whenever the world’s number Paradoxically, one of the key reasons why
two power (today China) is about to ASEAN became very strong in the 1980s
overtake the world’s number one power and 1990s was because of an informal
(today the United States), relations in- strategic agreement between Beijing and
evitably get difficult. Washington to work together to strengthen
ASEAN. Now ASEAN is in danger of facing Flags of ASEAN member states
However, the inherent difficulties are the opposite: both Beijing and Washing-
likely to be aggravated by the election of ton may be tempted to use ASEAN as an regional aggression that goes un- states to join Washington’s campaign to
Donald Trump. He has shown virtually instrument to embarrass the other. checked—whether it’s southern embarrass China. Such a step would be a
no diplomatic restraint in his criticism of Ukraine, or the South China Sea, or huge strategic mistake. It will do noth-
China. Hence, it does not take a political America and the Delicate Vase anywhere else in the world—will ul- ing to deter China, but could seriously
genius to conclude that U.S.-China relations
are heading towards a turbulent phase. I
ndeed, this game of trying to use
ASEAN has already begun. The
United States is clearly tempted to use
timately impact our allies, and could
draw in our military.
damage ASEAN. This is why it is im-
portant—in the age of growing Sino-
American geopolitical competition—for

T he Sri Lankans have an ancient prov- ASEAN as an instrument to embar-

erb: when elephants fight, the grass
suffers. They also add, wittily, that when
rass China over its assertive actions in
the South China Sea. Several American
The Trump Administration has been
equally critical. Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson provoked China by saying
both sides to treat ASEAN as a delicate
Ming vase that could easily be destroyed.
As both American and Chinese inter-
elephants make love, the grass also suffers. leaders have already spoken out on that “building islands and then putting ests might suffer if ASEAN is damaged
There will be many accidental victims of the issue, including President Barack military assets on those islands is akin or destroyed, delicacy in dealing with
U.S.-China turbulence. One of the most Obama, who said in 2014 that to Russia’s taking of Crimea. It’s taking ASEAN remains critical for both sides.
territory that others lay claim to.”
Kishore Mahbubani is Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National
University of Singapore and the co-author of The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace
(2017), from which this essay is partly drawn. You may follow him on Twitter @mahbubani_k.
American officials may be tempted
to enlist some or all ASEAN member
A merica should also adopt hard-
headed Kissingerian methods of
analysis to understand how it should
Amrita V. Nair is a Research Associate at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Autumn 2017, No.9 198 199 Kishore Mahbubani

and Amrita V. Nair
HorizonS ASEAN and Geopolitical Rivalries

fare with China in a geopolitical con- trade with ASEAN. China is ASEAN’s Chinese Soft Power 2016 Asian Barometer Survey, “despite
text to gain influence within ASEAN. largest external trade partner, with total and ASEAN sovereignty disputes in the South China
The odds are clearly stacked against
America. While the United States is, in
comprehensive terms, a much stronger
trade volume of $345 billion in 2015.
The United States, in comparison, is the
fourth largest, with total trade volume of
C hina should be equally sensitive
in its relations with ASEAN. We
Sea, a majority of citizens in most South-
east Asian countries (with the excep-
have all heard that Beijing has called for tion of Myanmar) view the influence of
power than China, it is also perceived as $212 billion. China was also the first to a new model of great power relations. China favorably.”
a declining power, while China is per- recognize the economic opportunities in In the same vein, it should also create a
ceived to be a rising power. ASEAN when it became the first country new model of great power-middle/small In five amongst the eight ASEAN
to propose a free trade agreement with power relations. If China succeeds in countries surveyed, more than 40 per-
Equally importantly, geography matters. the region in November 2000. China was developing a “new model” of relations cent of respondents believe China to be
All of China’s neighbors know that Amer- extraordinarily generous in the terms between China and ASEAN, this would the country that has the most influence
ica may be around in Asia for another of this FTA, offering an Early Harvest help to significantly blunt the efforts of in Asia now. The Travel China Guide
hundred years. However, they also know Agreement through which hundreds the Anglo-Saxon me- reveals an even more
that China will be around for another of agricultural products and manufac- dia to portray China as All of China’s neighbors telling fact: ASEAN
thousand years. Hence, it tured products exported an aggressive actor on know that America countries make up five
would be unwise for any It does not take a from ASEAN to China of the top 15 sources
the global scene. This may be around in
Asian country to seri- political genius to benefited from a gradual is another reason why of inbound tourism to
Asia for another
ously alienate China. The conclude that U.S.- elimination of tariffs. Beijing should under- China. Although lag-
political and economic hundred years. ging behind Korean and
China relations are take a comprehensive
costs of doing so could heading towards a The United States, review of the China- However, they also Japanese productions,
be very high. American on the other hand, has ASEAN relationship: know that China will Chinese media is also
officials should not resur-
turbulent phase. shown no interest in popular in Southeast
to see how it can help be around for another
rect the famous refrain pronounced by pursuing such an FTA with the ASEAN serve China’s broader Asia. Chinese TV soap
U.S. President George W. Bush after 9/11: countries. The Trans-Pacific Partner- foreign policy interests. thousand years. operas enjoyed “sensa-
“either you are with us or against us”. The ship, which would have brought four tional ratings” in Southeast Asia during
clear preference of virtually all ASEAN of the ten ASEAN countries and the Furthermore, ASEAN provides the late 1980s and 1990s. Today, South-
countries is to maintain good relations United States into a free trade zone, a perfect opportunity for China to east Asian countries remain the major
with both America and China. They do is now being prepared to go forward enhance its soft power image in the importers of Chinese TV dramas.
not want to be forced to choose. The without Trump’s America, even as China world. In a 2012 essay, then President
big question for American diplomats in strengthens its ties in the region with
dealing with ASEAN is therefore a simple the Regional Comprehensive Economic
one: can they exercise real delicacy in try- Partnership and the One Belt One Road
Hu Jintao lamented that “the interna-
tional culture of the West is strong,
while we are weak.”
C hina should therefore continue
to invest in fostering its relations
with ASEAN outside the economic and
ing to retain and grow influence with the initiative. The United States could start political spheres, through cultural and
ASEAN countries? by taking a leaf out of the book of its Due to centuries-old historical link- people-to-people exchanges. One of the
neighbor, Canada. In August 2016, ages between China and Southeast Asia, most effective ways to do this would be

A merican policymakers should

also examine why China seems
to have outpaced the United States in
Canada launched the Canada-ASEAN
trade policy dialogue in preparation for
a Canada-ASEAN FTA feasibility study.
as well as geographic proximity, China
enjoys more influence in the ASEAN
to create more exchange and scholarship
programs between universities in China
region than elsewhere. According to the and Southeast Asia.

Autumn 2017, No.9 200 201 Kishore Mahbubani

and Amrita V. Nair
HorizonS ASEAN and Geopolitical Rivalries

China can also draw on its rich cultural different. Hence, it would not be sur- course, has the greatest suspicion of China has the most influence in Asia
and history to woo Southeast Asians prising for different ASEAN countries Chinese interests and intentions, hav- today—the highest amongst the ASEAN
by easing visa norms for tourists from to arrive at different conclusions on the ing been occupied by China for more countries surveyed.
ASEAN countries who seek to visit heri- future of the ASEAN-China relationship. than a thousand years, from 111 BC to
tage sites. The city of Guilin has already
recognized the potential of ASEAN as a
source of tourism. Guilin offers six-day,
Indeed, this has already happened.

Each ASEAN member state will factor

938 AD. Nayan Chanda, a well-known
journalist, reported that at the height
of the Vietnam War, when Hanoi was
T he fate of Vietnam and China will
always be bound together because
of geography. A senior Singapore diplo-
visa-free entry to tourist groups from in its own bilateral interests vis-à-vis being bombed by American war planes, mat, Bilahari Kausikan, told the audi-
ASEAN countries. Other cities and prov- Beijing as it works out what ASEAN’s visitors to the Vietnamese national ence of a forum in the lead-up to the
inces in China should follow suit. policy towards China should be. Each museum were given historical accounts 2016 G7 Summit in Japan:
country’s assessment of its bilateral of Chinese invasions. A Vietnamese Some years ago, I asked a senior Viet-
China should not underestimate the interests will, of course, be conditioned journalist, Dien Luong, also wrote in an namese official what leadership chang-
many collateral benefits that a good by geography and history. Such assess- article for The Diplomat: es meant for Vietnam’s relations with
relationship with ASEAN can bring. As ments will also be conditioned by vari- In 1970, during a short hiatus in the China. Every Vietnamese leader, he re-
the second most successful regional or- ous arbitrary factors, such as the nature U.S. bombing of North Vietnam, plied, must be able to stand up to China
ganization in the world after the Euro- and personality of the leader in power Noam Chomsky, the leading Ameri- and get along with China and if anyone
pean Union, ASEAN’s global standing in each ASEAN country. Policies change can political activist and one of the thinks this cannot be done at the same
and prestige could rise if it continues to when leaders change. most vociferous critics of America’s time, he does not deserve to be a leader.
hold together and increase its coopera- foreign policies, was invited to visit the
tion. China could therefore be associ-
ated with a global success story if it
were to develop a good ASEAN-China
T he two ASEAN countries that will
always be the most wary of China
are Vietnam and Myanmar. Why? The
capital Hanoi and lecture at the Poly-
technique University there. Chomsky
recalled that the first morning he ar-
Curiously, while the national interests
of China and Vietnam are the most di-
vergent (especially over the South China
relationship. Hopefully, as a result of a simple answer to this question is history. rived, he was taken to the war museum Sea disputes), the two countries have one
significant and comprehensive policy Both have fought wars against invading to listen to long lectures with dioramas contemporary interest in common: to
review, China will come to the conclu- Chinese armies. The Qianlong Emperor about Vietnamese wars with China preserve the legitimacy of the ruling com-
sion that it is in its interest to strength- invaded Myanmar four times between many centuries ago. ‘The lesson was munist parties in Beijing and Hanoi. This
en, not weaken, ASEAN. 1765 and 1769. Myanmar’s defense in clear,’ he said in an interview, ‘you hap- helps to soften the differences between
this war led to the creation of its present- pen to be destroying us now, but you’ll Vietnam and China.
Diverse ASEAN day border with China. The Burmese leave. China will always be here.’
Approaches to China

Y et, as in any bilateral relationship,

it takes two hands to clap. Just as
border also became the scene of skir-
mishes resulting from the Chinese Civil
War fought between Chinese national-
This hard-nosed perception of Chinese
influence amongst the Vietnamese is ap-
T hailand does not share a border
with China, nor has it ever fought
Chinese forces. Thai courts tradition-
China should deeply reflect on the ists and communists. parent in the results of the Asian Barom- ally sent tributes to Chinese emperors,
ASEAN-China relationship, ASEAN eter Survey as well. This observation is and modern Thailand has assimilated
should do the same. This will be harder The war between China and Vietnam confirmed by Richard Bush and Maeve residents of Chinese descent very com-
for ASEAN to do, as there are ten na- in 1979 left more than 50,000 Viet- Whelan-Wuest of the Brookings Insti- fortably. Thailand remains an American
tional actors within ASEAN. Their na- namese dead, although it lasted only tution, who note that 60 percent of the ally, but it has received a great deal of
tional interests vis-à-vis China are also three weeks and six days. Vietnam, of respondents from Vietnam believe that Chinese aid and is emerging as a coun-

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and Amrita V. Nair
HorizonS ASEAN and Geopolitical Rivalries

try sympathetic to China’s interests. Ian pressed appreciation for China’s under- The Philippines has tended to be in- relations with China; and successive
Storey describes this shift well in his standing that after nearly a decade of consistent and erratic in its foreign policy Malaysian prime ministers, including
2015 piece on Thailand’s relations with political turmoil, the Kingdom requires behavior, partially for cultural reasons. Mahathir Mohamad and the current
the two great powers: a period of stability that only the army With the election of Rodrigo Duterte as incumbent Najib Razak, have main-
[…] for the past four decades Thailand can provide. The Thai government con- president in May 2016, China-Philippines tained close relations with Beijing. Najib
has always been able to rely on China’s trasts this with Washington’s repeated tensions have subsided, as President is always treated royally in Beijing, since
support during crisis periods: e.g. dur- calls for the immediate restoration of Duterte announced that it was his father, Prime
ing the 1973 energy crisis when Chi- democracy, and has rejected as unfair he would try to work Curiously, while the Minister Tun Razak, who
na sold oil to Thailand at “friendship and hypocritical U.S. allegations that together with China national interests of established diplomatic
prices”; China was Thailand’s primary Thailand’s human rights and people to resolve issues in the China and Vietnam relations with China.
strategic ally during the decade-long trafficking situation has deteriorated South China Sea bilater- are the most divergent
Cambodian Crisis; Beijing provid- since the coup […] Chinese and U.S. ally. Duterte followed up In November 2016,
(especially over
ed financial support when the Thai responses to the coup have strength- on his promise by visiting Najib visited Beijing and
economy buckled during the 1997–98 ened the Thai narrative that since the China in October 2016 the South China received many sweet
Asian Financial Crisis; and after the late 1970s, the Kingdom has always with a delegation that Sea disputes), the deals. China agreed
2006 coup, China recognized the new been able to rely on China’s support in included 400 business- two countries have to build a new port in
government immediately and bilat- times of crisis, while America behaves men. Twenty-four billion one contemporary Melaka for $1.9 billion,
eral relations continued as normal. In as a fair weather friend. dollars-worth of trade and a new railway line
Thailand, these events, among others, deals were signed. Soon
interest in common: between Kuala Lumpur
have created a very positive image of China has also been exceptionally after he returned home, to preserve the and Kelantan for $13.1
China as a country that always has the generous to Cambodia and Laos, and China once again allowed legitimacy of the ruling billion. However, despite
Kingdom’s national interests at heart, they have emerged as the two most pro- Filipino fishermen to fish communist parties in the bonhomie among the
irrespective of who holds power in China governments within the ASEAN near Scarborough Shoal. leaders, structural factors
Beijing and Hanoi.
Bangkok. constellation. complicate China-Ma-
In May 2017, China did not over- laysia relations. The two countries have
In recent years, American criticism—
and indeed ostracism—of military-
dominated governments has pushed
I
n maritime Southeast Asia, there is
greater political and physical dis-
tance from China and, from time to
react to Duterte’s claim that China
had threatened war if the Philippines
drilled for oil in the South China Sea.
competing claims in the South China
Sea, and Malaysia’s ruling elite views the
country’s ethnic Chinese community
Thailand closer to China. Just as West- time, greater wariness of China. How- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesper- with suspicion. These and other issues
ern isolation of Myanmar in the 1980s ever, the policies of individual countries son Hua Chunying said that the focus have the potential to complicate their
and 1990s drove Myanmar into the have been inconsistent. The Philippines was on “pragmatic cooperation” and bilateral relations.
hands of the Chinese, Western criticism under President Benigno Aquino III “healthy and stable development of
of Thailand’s military governments
could mean that country’s geopolitical
(2010–2016) was very critical of Beijing
and took China to the Permanent Court
China-Philippine relations.”
T here are several factors compli-
cating Indonesia’s relations with
gift to China. As Storey put it:
Thailand’s domestic political situation
has largely determined the country’s
of Arbitration in The Hague. However,
barely two decades earlier, in 1991, the
Philippines had expelled American car-
M alaysia, like Thailand, has a long China. With its aspirations to become a
history of good relations with middle power, Indonesia is not natural-
China. In 1974 Malaysia became the first ly deferential to China. Indonesia was
tilt towards Beijing. The junta has ex- riers from Subic Bay and Clark Airbase. ASEAN country to establish diplomatic one of the last ASEAN countries to es-

Autumn 2017, No.9 204 205 Kishore Mahbubani

and Amrita V. Nair
HorizonS ASEAN and Geopolitical Rivalries

tablish diplomatic relations with China, Any such calculation of ASEAN’s borders, it should realize that a stronger of driving the region because they
because of President Suharto’s belief long-term interests will show that ei- ASEAN, rather than a weaker one, offers have no common agenda. ASEAN
that the Chinese Communist Party had ther of the two extreme options—being the most satisfactory way forward. is able to drive precisely because the
supported the PKI’s attempted coup in supplicant to China or being confronta- three great powers cannot agree. And
1965. Suharto only al- tional against China—is ASEAN leaders, in turn, should rec- we can continue to do so as long as
lowed diplomatic rela- To understand the potentially disastrous ognize that ASEAN’s neutrality is one the major powers find us neutral and
tions to be established value of ASEAN, for the ten ASEAN of its greatest strengths. The United independent.
in 1990. Suharto is China should countries. The ASEAN States, China, Japan, and India all have
now gone, but wariness understand the group needs to agree, by a common interest in ASEAN’s survival In short, both America and China will
of China remains. traditional ASEAN con- and success, despite some divergences have to display extraordinary sensitivity
depth of suspicion
sensus, to walk a middle in their interests vis-à-vis the ASEAN in dealing with ASEAN. It is an inher-
The Nine-Dash Line
it faces in Northeast path between being space. ASEAN has become indispens- ently weak regional organization, but,
that the Chinese drew Asia and compare supplicant and hostile able in the Asia-Pacific region, with no paradoxically, its weakness has been a
in the South China Sea that to the relative to China. This group other organization being able to replace source of strength, for it has enabled all
intrudes on Indonesia’s lack of suspicion in should make it clear to it. Only ASEAN is trusted by all the the great powers to trust it with provid-
own Exclusive Economic Southeast Asia. China that an indepen- great powers to be a neutral and effective ing a neutral geopolitical platform. If
Zone. China has given dent ASEAN would be platform through which they can engage ASEAN is destroyed, no other country
various private assurances to Indone- best for China’s long-term interests, as with one another. or institution can take its place. The
sian leaders that it does not claim those it would provide an independent and larger East Asian region will be deprived
Exclusive Economic Zone waters but neutral presence that could help lubri- Extraordinary Sensitivity of a valuable diplomatic instrument.
will not say this publicly. There have cate and soften China’s relations with
also been incidents between Indonesian other major powers—especially Asian
and Chinese government vessels in the powers, such as India and Japan.
A fter several decades, the foreign
ministers of the United States,
China, Japan, India, and even Russia
Equally importantly, the ten ASEAN
countries will have to develop new
South China Sea. and the EU have come to see the value instincts to deal with the likely intensi-

ASEAN’s Long-term Interests A SEAN has demonstrated in its

first 50 years, and especially in
of attending the annual ASEAN meet-
ings. Similarly, with ASEAN+3 and
fied competition between America and
China.

T his brief survey of bilateral rela- the last 30, that it can benefit China’s
tions between China and some
ASEAN states demonstrates just how
long-term interests by helping to bridge
the gap between China and other ma-
ASEAN+6 meetings raised to summit
level, the presidents and prime minis-
ters of these countries also find value in
ASEAN’s diplomatic capacities will
be tested to the limit. ASEAN’s found-
complicated each bilateral relation- jor powers. To understand the value of attending ASEAN meetings. As Singa- ing fathers did a brilliant job of steering
ship is. However, it would be a mis- ASEAN, China should understand the porean Ambassador Tommy Koh said ASEAN safely through the geopolitical
take for any of the ASEAN countries depth of suspicion it faces in Northeast in a 2015 interview, storm of the Cold War. Its current leaders
to allow bilateral dynamics to deter- Asia and compare that to the relative the EU is driven by its two biggest will have to prove that they are as skillful
mine the future of the ASEAN-China lack of suspicion in Southeast Asia. The economies, but here, the U.S., China as their predecessors. Only time will tell
relationship. Instead, that should be difference in political chemistry between and India are not able to take the role whether they can pass the test.
based on an enlightened calculation Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia can
of ASEAN’s long-term interests as a be credited to ASEAN. If China wants
group. to have a positive dynamic around its

Autumn 2017, No.9 206 207 Kishore Mahbubani

and Amrita V. Nair