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 World Scientific Series in Finance
(ISSN: 2010-1082)

Series Editor: William T. Ziemba (University of British Columbia (Emeritus) and

London School of Economics, UK)

Advisory Editors:
Greg Connor (National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland)
George Constantinides (University of Chicago, USA)
Espen Eckbo (Dartmouth College, USA)
Hans Foellmer (Humboldt University, Germany)
Christian Gollier (Toulouse School of Economics, France)
Thorsten Hens (University of Zurich, Switzerland)
Robert Jarrow (Cornell University, USA)
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Haim Levy (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel)
John Mulvey (Princeton University, USA)
Marti Subrahmanyam (New York University, USA)
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Published*:

Vol. 19 Adventures in Financial Data Science: The Empirical Properties of

Financial and Economic Data
Second Edition
by Graham L. Giller (Giller Investments, USA)

Vol. 18 Sports Analytics

by Leonard C. Maclean (Dalhousie University, Canada) &
William T. Ziemba (University of British Columbia, Canada)

Vol. 17 Investment in Startups and Small Business Financing

edited by Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary (Tokai University, Japan),
Naoyuki Yoshino (Keio University, Japan),
Chul Ju Kim (Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan),
Peter J. Morgan (Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan) &
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Vol. 16 Cultural Finance: A World Map of Risk, Time and Money

by Thorsten Hens (University of Zurich, Switzerland),
Marc Oliver Rieger (University of Trier, Germany) &
Mei Wang (WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Germany)

Vol. 15 Exotic Betting at the Racetrack

by William T. Ziemba (University of British Columbia, Canada)

Vol. 14 Dr Z’s NFL Guidebook

by William T. Ziemba (University of British Columbia, Canada) &
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 Published by
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224
USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite 401-402, Hackensack, NJ 07601
UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Giller, Graham L., author.
Title: Adventures in financial data science : the empirical properties of financial and
economic data / Graham L Giller, Giller Investments, New Jersey.
Description: Second Edition. | Hackensack, NJ : World Scientific, 2022. |
Series: World scientific series in finance, 2010-1082 ; Vol. 19 | Revised edition. |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2021058959 | ISBN 9789811250644 (hardcover) |
ISBN 9789811251818 (ebook) | ISBN 9789811251825 (ebook other)
Subjects: LCSH: Financial services industry--Data processing. | Investments--Data processing.
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Classification: LCC HG4515.5 .G55 2022 | DDC 332.640285--dc23/eng/20220131

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British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Copyright © 2022 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval
system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the publisher.

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 June 8, 2022 10:44 Adventures in Financial Data Science. . . 9in x 6in b4549-fm page v

For my wife, for her support,

our children, who put up with my “idiosyncracies,”
and for my parents, who inspired me to share.
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In loving memory of
Jack and Lorna Baugh & Gordon and Alice Giller.

I am grateful to the many friends I have found over my years

working in the financial services industry, including those who
agreed to take a look at drafts of this work and provide feedback.
In particular: Winston Featherly-Bean, Pete Kyle, Claus Murmann,
Yuri Malitsky, Alex Ribeiro-Castro, Sutesh Sharma, Adrian
Schofield and Jaipal Tuttle.

v
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 June 8, 2022 10:44 Adventures in Financial Data Science. . . 9in x 6in b4549-fm page vii

Preface

This revised second edition of Adventures in Financial Data Science

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is being written as over half of America has been vaccinated against

the Coronavirus, and life may be returning to normal in parts of the
United States, although the δ-variant is also continuing its deadly
spread, particularly in The South. As a long read with a potentially
narrow audience, the book has surprised me with its success and
led to me finding new friends throughout the world. As a personal
experience, it has been immensely enriching to write it.
I decided to take the opportunity to refresh some of the charts,
particularly those relevant to financial and economic data, from the
viewpoint now possible after the onset of the Coronavirus recession.
For the chapter on the Coronavirus itself, I have chosen to analyze
the accuracy of the extrapolations made from the data, freezing the
model in the Autumn of 2020 but grading it’s performance one year
later.
This book features mostly my empirical work, although I did
include some theory at the end. It will now be followed by a sec-
ond, smaller, volume Essays on Trading Strategy, that outlines my
view of the analytic framework that a trader ought to use to make
decisions under uncertainty. That book will be entirely devoted trad-
ing strategy theory and will have only slight overlap with this one.

vii
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viii Adventures in Financial Data Science

Many parts of this work can be viewed as a plea against the use
of the Normal distribution in places where it has no business being
used. Finance is one of them.
Graham L. Giller
Holmdel, NJ, 2021
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 June 8, 2022 10:44 Adventures in Financial Data Science. . . 9in x 6in b4549-fm page ix

About the Author

Graham Giller is one of Wall Street’s original

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data scientists. Starting his career at Morgan

Stanley in the UK, he was an early member
of Peter Muller’s famous PDT group and went
on to run his own investment firm. He was
Bloomberg LP’s original data science hire and
set up the data science team in the Global Data
division there. He then moved to J.P. Morgan to
take the role of Chief Data Scientist, New Prod-
uct Development, and was subsequently Head
of Data Science Research at J.P. Morgan and Head of Primary
Research at Deutsche Bank. He is currently CEO of Giller Invest-
ments (New Jersey), LLC, a private research firm.

ix
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 June 8, 2022 10:44 Adventures in Financial Data Science. . . 9in x 6in b4549-fm page xi

Contents

Preface vii
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About the Author ix

List of Figures xv
List of Tables xxxi

Chapter 1. Biography and Beginnings 1

1.1 About this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Oxford, Physics and Bond Trading . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.4 Morgan Stanley and P.D.T. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.5 Self Employed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.6 Professional Data Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Chapter 2. Financial Data 31

2.1 Modeling Asset Prices as Stochastic Processes . . . . 31
2.2 Abnormality of Financial Distributions . . . . . . . . 35
2.3 The US Stock Market Through Time . . . . . . . . . 48
2.4 Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
2.5 LIBOR and Eurodollar Futures . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
2.6 Asymmetric Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
2.7 Equity Index Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
2.8 The VIX Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

xi
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xii Adventures in Financial Data Science

2.9 Microwave Latency Arbitrage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

2.10 What I’ve Learned about Financial Data . . . . . . 138

Chapter 3. Economic Data and Other

Time-Series Analysis 141
3.1 Non-Farm Payrolls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
3.2 Initial Claims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
3.3 Twitter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
3.4 Analysis of Climate Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
3.5 Sunspots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

Chapter 4. Politics, Schools, Public Health,

and Language 227
4.1 Presidential Elections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
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4.2 School Board Elections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240

4.3 Analysis of Public Health Data . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
4.4 Statistical Analysis of Language . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
4.5 Learning from a Mixed Bag of Studies . . . . . . . . 284

Chapter 5. Demographics and Survey Research 285

5.1 Machine Learning Models for Gender
Assignment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
5.2 Bayesian Estimation of Demographics . . . . . . . . 293
5.3 Working with Patreon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
5.4 Survey and Opinion Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
5.5 Working with China Beige Book . . . . . . . . . . . 321
5.6 Generalized Autoregressive Dirichlet Multinomial
Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
5.7 Presidential Approval Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339

Chapter 6. Coronavirus 347

6.1 Discrete Stochastic Compartment Models . . . . . . 348
6.2 Fitting Coronavirus in New Jersey . . . . . . . . . . 352
6.3 Independent Models by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358
6.4 Geospatial and Topological Models . . . . . . . . . . 365
6.5 Looking Back at this Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
6.6 COVID Partisanship in the United States . . . . . . 388
6.7 Final Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
 June 8, 2022 10:44 Adventures in Financial Data Science. . . 9in x 6in b4549-fm page xiii

Contents xiii

Chapter 7. Theory 395

7.1 Some Remarks on the PDT Trading Algorithm . . . 395
7.2 Cosine Similarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
7.3 The Construction and Properties of Ellipsoidal
Probability Density Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
7.4 The Generalized Error Distribution . . . . . . . . . . 429
7.5 Frictionless Asset Allocation with Ellipsoidal
Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438
7.6 Asset Allocation with Realistic Distributions
of Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444

Epilogue 449
E.1 The Nature of Business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449
E.2 The Analysis of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450
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E.3 Summing Things Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451

Appendix A. How I Store and Process Data 453

A.1 Databases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453
A.2 Programming and Analytical Languages . . . . . . . 454
A.3 Analytical Workflows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454
A.4 Hardware Choices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455

Appendix B. Some of the Data Sources

I’ve Used for This Book 457
B.1 Financial Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457
B.2 Economic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457
B.3 Social Media and Internet Activity . . . . . . . . . . 458
B.4 Physical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458
B.5 Health and Demographics Data . . . . . . . . . . . . 458
B.6 Political Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458

Bibliography 461
Index 469
 B1948 Governing Asia

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Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 According to the present style of sleeves, the ruffle should not fall
over the hand, but should be sewed at the other edge of the
wristband with the puff, on which it must fall back. For cold weather,
an undersleeve of sarsenet, made of the same dimensions as the
knitted one, and tacked under it, will be found a very great
improvement, and if of a colour that will harmonise with the dress,
will be very becoming.
Knitted Lace Ruffle.—Cotton No. 50; Needles, No. 22. Cast on
17 stitches.
1st Row.—Knit 2, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 1, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 1, slip 1, k. 1, pass
the slip stitch over, m. 1, k. 3, m. 2, k. 2 t., m. 2, k. 2.
2nd.—K. 3, p. 1, k. 2, p. 1, k. 3, p. 5, k. 5.
3rd.—K. 2, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 1, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 1, slip 1, k. 1, pass the
slip stitch over, m. 1., k. 10.
4th.—K. 2, m. 2, k. 2 t., k. 1, k. 2 t., m. 2., k. 2 t., k. 2, p. 3, k. 6.
5th.—K. 2, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 2, m. 1, k. 3 t., m. 1, k. 4, p. 1, k. 4, p. 1, k.
2.
6th.—K. 12, p. 3, k. 6.
7th.—K. 2, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 2 t., m. 1, k. 3, m. 1, k. 2 t., k. 2, m. 2, slip
1, k. 3 t., pass the slip stitch over, m. 2, k. 2 t., k. 2 t.
8th.—K. 3, p. 1, k. 2, p. 1, k. 3, p. 5, k. 5.
9th.—Like 3rd.
10th.—Cast off 3, k. 6, p. 2, m. 1, p. 2 t., p. 1, k. 5.

This lace should be put on rather full; and on no account should

knitted articles be ironed by the laundress. It is quite sufficient to
pull them into proper shape whilst they are drying at the fire.
 INSERTIONS IN EMBROIDERY.
[Figs. 7 & 8.]

Suitable for the fronts of shirts, and for other purposes; to be

worked in satin stitch, with embroidery cotton, No. 80. The centres
of the leaves and cups of the flowers may be done in very small
eyelet-holes. The stalks sewn over with extreme neatness.
 TABLE MAT.
[Fig. 3.]

Materials.—Shaded green and scarlet 8 thread Berlin wool; bone

crochet hook. Make a chain of six and form it into a round.
1st Round.—12 dc.
2nd.—4 ch., miss 1 sc. in 2nd. stitch; repeat all round.
3rd.—Like 2nd.
4.—Scarlet wool; 6 ch., sc. under the loop of 4 ch.; repeat.
5th.—7 ch., sc. under 6 ch. of former round; repeat.
6th.—9 ch. worked as before.
7th.—12 ch. worked as before: fasten off the scarlet and begin with
the green wool once more.
8th.—12 tc. on 12 ch. of last round, miss sc. stitch; repeat.
9th.—Sc. on 2nd. stitch, 2 ch., miss 1; repeat.
10th.—+ 1 tc., 3 ch., miss 3 +; repeat.
11th.—+ 1 tc., on tc. of last round, 4 ch. +; repeat.
12th.—+ Dc. on 4 ch. of last round, 1 ch. +; repeat.
13th.—[Scarlet wool,] 4 tc. on 4 dc. of last round, 1 ch.; repeat.
14th—+ 9 dc. on 9 stitches, of last round, 9 ch., dc. into same
stitch as the last +; repeat.
15th.—6 ch., sc. in 3rd dc. of last round; repeat this twice more; 8
ch., unite into the loop formed by 9 ch. in last round; three times
more, then repeat from the commencement of the 15th round.
16th.—Sc. in centre loop of 8 ch. in scallop; 1 ch., sc. into centre
loop of 8 ch. in next scallop, 11 ch.; repeat.
17th.—12 ch., sc. in third stitch; repeat.
18th.—12 dc. through every chain of 12 in last round.
19th.—5 ch. unite with sc. on the point of the loop; repeat.
20th—Dc. all round, and fasten off.
 GENTLEMEN’S KNITTED BRACES.
[Fig. 4.]

Materials.—Rich, dark blue, or crimson crochet silk; two knitting

needles, No. 14. Cast on 19 stitches.
1st. Row.—K. 2, m. 1, k. 1, slip 1, k. 1, pass the slip stitch over, p. 1,
k. 2 t., k. 1, p. 1, k. 1, slip 1, k. 1, pass the slip stitch over, p. 1, k. 2 t., k.
1, m,. 1, k. 2.
2nd.—P. 5, k. 1, p. 2, k. 1, p. 2, k. 1, p. 5.
3rd.—K. 2, m. 1, k. 1, m. 1, slip 1, k. 1, pass the slip stitch over, p. 1,
k. 2 t., p. 1, slip 1, k. 1, pass the slip stitch over, m. 1, k. 1, m. 1, k. 2.
4th.—P. 6, k. 1, p. 1, k. 1, p. 1, k. 1, p. 6.
5th.—K,. 2, m. 1, k. 3, m. 1, slip 1, k. 2 t., pass the slip stitch over, p.
1, slip 1, k. 2 t., pass the slip stitch over, m. 1, k. 3, m. 1, k. 2.
6th.—P. 8, k. 1, p. 8.
7th.—K. 2, m. 1, k. 5, m. 1, slip 1, k,. 2 t., pass the slip stitch over, m.
1, k. 5, m. 1, k. 2.
8th.—Purled.
Repeat this pattern until you have done the length required for one
half of the braces. Then cast on, and do another length. When made
up, they should be lined with white Petersham ribbon, and finished
with white kid trimmings.
 SMALL GIMPS IN CROCHET
[Fig. 5.]

Materials.—Crochet cotton, No. 6; crochet hook, No. 18.

No.—1.—Make a chain the length required and then work back in
dc. This is a very neat little trimming for children’s dresses; and if
required to be made of silk and purse twist be used, will be found to
answer every purpose for which a narrow gimp may be required. It
forms also an excellent substitute for the braid which is run on the
skirt of a dress, as the wools of which it should then be made, can be
procured of any shade whatever, which the braid itself cannot.
No. 2.—Make a chain of the length required, and on it work 1 dc., 1
ch, miss 1.
 JUDY’S ANTI-MACASSAR.
[Fig. 6.]

Materials.—Crochet cotton, No. 10; crochet hook, No. 16. 133 ch.
Four rows of open square crochet.
5th.—20 os., 4 dc., 3 ch., miss 3, 12 dc., 2 ch., 17 os., 1 dc.
6th.—10 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 16 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 3 os., 9 dc., 1
ch., miss 1, 21 os., 1 dc.
7th.—10 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 59 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 13 os., 1 dc.
8th and 9th.—The same.
10th.—11 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 54 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 14 os., 1 dc.
11th, 12th, and 13th.—Like 10th.
14th.—12 os., 20 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 32 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 14 os., 1 dc.
15th.—Like 14th.
16th.—12 os., 20 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 14 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 14 os., 1 dc.
17th.—12 os., 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 18 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 13 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 14 os., 1 dc.
18th.—12 os., 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 18 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 15 os., 1 dc.
19th.—12 os., 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 13 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 16 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 10 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 15 os., 1 dc.
20th.—12 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 16 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 8 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 16 os., 1 dc.
21st.—12 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 14 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 9 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 16 os., 3, 1, dc.
22nd.—13 os., 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 12 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 12 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 os., 1 dc.
 23rd.—13 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 7 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 10 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 10 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 8 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 17 os., 1 dc.
24th.—14 os., 35 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 18 os., 1 dc.
25th—15 os., 40 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 15 os., 1 dc.
26th.—17 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 41 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 12 os., 1 dc.
27th.—17 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 12 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 16 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 12 os., 1 dc.
28th.—17 os., 12 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 10 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 2 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 1 os., 13 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 12 os., 1 dc.
29th.—16 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 5 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 3 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 3 dc., 1 ch., miss
1, 12 os., 1 dc.
30th.—15 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 12 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 7 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 17 os., 1 dc.
31st.—15 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 10 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 11 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 10 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 os., 1 dc.
32nd.—15 os., 23 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 13 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 16 os., 1 dc.
33rd.—15 os., 21 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 15 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 16 os., 1 dc.
34th.—15 os., 19 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 15 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 os., 1 dc.
35th.—15 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 32 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 17 os., 1 dc.
36th.—16 os., 28 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 18 os., 1 dc.
37th.—16 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 29 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 17 os., 1 dc.
38th.—16 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 30 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 os., 1 dc.
39th.—17 os., 25 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 3 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 os., 1 dc.
40th.—15 os., 10 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 19 os., 1 dc.
41st.—14 os., 14 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 18 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 18 os., 1 dc.
42nd.—14 os., 15 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 5 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 16 os., 1 dc.
43rd.—14 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 16 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 22 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 16 os., 1 dc.
44th.—15 os., 17 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 17 os., 1 dc.
45th.—14 os., 20 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 16 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 17 os., 1 dc.
46th.—13 os., 23 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 7 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 4 dc., 2 ch.,
miss 2, 18 os., 1 dc.
 47th.—12 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 8 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 29 dc., 2 ch.,
miss 2, 18 os., 1 dc.
48th.—13 os., 35 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 19 os., 1 dc.
49th.—13 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 30 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 20 os., 1 dc.
50th.—13 os., 1 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 15 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 1 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 12 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 20 os., 1 dc.
51st.—14 os., 13 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 1 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 1 dc., 1 ch.,
miss 1, 8 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 20 os., 1 dc.
52nd.—14 os., 10 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 3 os., 5 dc., 1 ch., miss 1, 21 os.,
1 dc.
53rd.—15 os., 6 dc., 2 ch., miss 2, 26 os., 1 dc.
54th to 57th inclusive.—In open square crochet.

The border to be the same as that given for Punch’s Anti-Macassar,

in part I. of this book.
 CROCHET D’OYLEY.
[Fig. 9.]

Materials.—7 shades of Berlin wool; bone hook.

Make a chain of 9, and form it into a round.
1st.—Dc., increasing 3 in the round.
2nd.—6 ch., 1 tc., miss 3. Repeat.
3rd.—Sc. on centre of 6 ch., 9 ch. Repeat.
4th.—Sc. on centre of 9 ch., 12 ch. Repeat.
5th. Sc. on centre of 12 ch., 15 ch., sc. on same stitch, and work 1
sc., 2 dc., 14 tc., 2 dc., 1 sc. in the loop thus formed. Fasten off, and
repeat in the centre of every 12 ch.
6th.—Begin on the point of the leaf with a sc. stitch; 15 ch., sc. on
point of next leaf, and so on.
7th and 8th.—Dc. all round.
9th.—✕ Sc., 6 ch., miss 2, ✕. Repeat.
10th.—✕ Sc. on centre of 6 ch., 9 ch., ✕; repeat.
11th.—✕ Sc. on centre of 9 ch., 12 ch., ✕; repeat.
12th.—✕ Sc. on centre of 12 ch., 9 ch., ✕; repeat.
13th.—Dc.
14th.—Dc., working two stitches into every one.
15th.—Sc. on the centre of one of the spaces. ✕ 12 ch., sc. in same
stitch three times, 12 ch., sc on centre of next space. And repeat from
✕.
16th.—Dc. all round.
 17th.—Sc., ✕ 5 ch., miss 2, sc. in 3rd ✕. Repeat all round, and
fasten off.
 POINT LACE STITCHES.

Point Lace is now so fashionable that very few are unacquainted

with its appearance; but perhaps some of my readers will be
surprised when told that the whole of the genuine Point Lace is the
production of the needle; not merely the close and heavy parts are so
made, but the most exquisitely delicate nets, of which, of late years,
we have had imitations from the loom, are all alike produced by the
common sewing needle.
The work of which we treat here may be regarded not as an
imitation of the valuable and beautiful work of ancient times, but
rather as an actual revival of an art which has unfortunately been
suffered to sink into oblivion. Of course, at present, I content myself
with giving very simple Point Lace patterns; but, as my fair readers
advance in knowledge, I shall give them specimens which will still
more exercise their skill and patience.
Point Lace stitches are worked on a foundation of braid or tape; or,
sometimes, cambric. At present, I chiefly use braid, it being the more
comeatable material, and answering extremely well for delicate
articles. It is the kind termed French white cotton braid, being very
closely and evenly plaited. That used for large patterns is No. 9; for
delicate work, a still narrower braid may be employed.
Very much of the beauty of Point Lace depends of course, on the
skill of the workers; but it would not be exaggeration to assert that
even more is the result of the adaptation of the materials. A very
great variety of cotton and linen thread is absolutely necessary; not
less than nine different kinds entering frequently into the
composition of one single collar: those I use are termed Evans’s
Point Lace Cottons, manufactured by Messrs. Walter Evans and Co.,
of Derby; and they are as superior to all others that I have tried as it
is possible to imagine. They are sold selected and arranged properly
for this kind of work.
The pattern being drawn in outline, on colored paper, is to be then
pasted on calico or linen; when quite dry, begin to braid it, by laying
on the braid, and running it on the paper with a fine needle and
cotton, No. 50. The stitches are to be taken through the paper, and
not very closely together, except where points of leaves and other
angularities occur. In these places the braid is sewed at each end of
the pattern and turned back; this is termed mitreing. The stitches
must be taken across the braid, as it is not liable then to become
wider.
The stitches which are used in the specimens I have hitherto made
in point lace are the following, which may be divided into three
kinds: edgings, laces, and connecting bars.
 The use of the edgings is sufficiently obvious: they form narrow
borderings to the braid or other material which is the foundation of
the lace.
The lace stitches are used to fill up open parts in the design, such
as the leaves, flowers, or fruit, the mere outlines of which are made in
the braid.
Finally, the connecting stitches unite the several parts into one
perfect mass of work.
EDGES.—Brussels Edging (No. 1).—This is merely the common
button-hole stitch, or (as it is sometimes called) glove stitch. It is
worked nearly at the edge of the braid, and differs only from the
ordinary button-hole because the stitches are taken at the distance of
the fourteenth part of an inch apart, and, as the thread is not drawn
tightly, each stitch forms a small loop. It is worked from left to right.
Venetian Edging (No. 2).—The first stitch is taken as in Brussels
edging, and in the loop thus formed, four tight button-hole stitches
are worked.
Sorrentine Edging (No. 3).—Make a stitch as in Brussels edging,
but the eighth of an inch long; work one button-hole stitch in the
loop; repeat at the distance of the sixteenth of an inch; two stitches
are thus formed, one of which is half the length of the other. Repeat.
LACES.—Brussels Lace (No. 4) is worked by doing a line of
Brussels edging in the space to be filled up, and then another line,
from right to left, putting the needle, at every stitch, through one of
the loops of the first row. These lines are to be repeated, backwards
and forwards, until the part is completed. In working the last row,
run the needle through the braid after every stitch.
Venetian Lace (No. 5).—The beautiful closely-dotted appearance,
characteristic of this lace, is obtained by working consecutive rows of
Venetian edging, not backward and forwards, but always from left to
right, fastening off after completing each line; or, if the space be very
small, running the needle in the braid back to the place where the
next line is to be begun.
English Lace (No. 6) is used principally to fill up large open
spaces. Make a series of diagonal bars across the space to be filled
up, securing the tightness of each thread by working a button-hole
stitch on the braid, before slipping the needle to the next place; cross
these bars by others, in the contrary direction, and at the same
distance (one-eighth of an inch) apart. Wherever the bars cross each
other, work a small spot, by passing the needle alternately under and
over the threads, five or six times round. Twist the threads twice
round each other in bringing the needle to the next cross, and repeat
until a spot is made at every one. Observe, that in crossing the first
bars you slip the needle alternately under and over them.
Open English Lace (No. 7) is commenced like the preceding, but
when the two lines of diagonal bars are made, a line of perpendicular
and one of horizontal threads must be added. The spot will thus be
worked on eight threads instead of four. The lines to be at the rate of
five to an inch.
English Rosettes (No. 8).—Another beautiful style of English
point. It is a kind of spot, which looks like the miniature of the
rosette on a baby’s cap, whence its name is derived. A single spot is
only used in one space, and the size is to be suited to it. The open
space is crossed with four, six or eight twisted threads; the last
thread to be twisted only to the centre, where all are to be firmly
joined by working one or two tight button-hole stitches. Make the
rosette by passing the needle round one thread and under the next,
then round that and under the succeeding; continue until you have
made a rosette as large as the space requires, working from four to
ten times round. Stop at the single thread, twist round it, and fasten
off.
Mechlin Lace (No. 9).—This is one of the most beautiful, and at
the same time, complicated stitches in the list. Those who have
worked it, however, all confess that the effect amply repays the
trouble. It is worked thus: A number of diagonal bars, each of a
single thread, cross each other in the space to be filled up, at the
distance of one quarter of an inch from each other. Then all the bars
in one direction are to be covered with button-hole stitch. Begin in
the opposite direction, in the same way, and work it nearly to the
crossing of the two. Pass the thread loosely round the cross twice,
slipping the needle under one and over another thread, so as to form
the small circle seen in the engraving. This is to be covered with
button-hole stitch; and as, from the looseness of the thread, it is
otherwise somewhat troublesome to work it, pin it down on the
paper with a second needle. In the middle of each quarter of every
alternate round, a dot is to be worked thus: instead of drawing the
thread tight, as usual, put in the loop a pin, which is to keep it about
the eighth of an inch in length. On this loop work three button-hole
stitches; and withdraw the pin, and continue the round.
Valenciennes Lace (No. 20,) has a very heavy appearance, and
contrasts admirably with lighter stitches. A space to be so filled up
has a number of radiating threads, meeting, in a common centre, to
be very closely darned with extremely fine thread.
Henriquez Lace (No. 11), is, on the contrary, a very light and
delicate stitch. It must never be done with coarser thread than
Evans’s boar’s head, 120. With this make a diagonal line across the
space to be so filled in, and return your needle to the point you began
from, by twisting the thread back again. Make another line, parallel
with this one, and not more than the tenth of an inch from it. Twist it
over four times, then on the single and double thread form a spot, by
darning the three backwards and forwards about sixteen times. To
do this, you must separate the two threads twisted together
whenever you make a spot. Continue twisting your needle round the
single thread, for the space of one quarter of an inch, when you will
form another dot. Repeat until this line is finished. Make similar
ones at one quarter of an inch apart in the entire space; and then
cross them with others, worked in precisely the same manner, in
exactly the opposite direction. Take care that where the lines cross
each other the thread is twisted between the first bar and the second,
that a small, clear square may be maintained.
Cordovan Lace (No. 12), is similar to the preceding, but less
delicate and less troublesome. Two twisted bars are made the tenth
of an inch apart, and a third single one, in going back on which the
spots are worked on two twisted threads and the single one. They are
also crossed by similar ones, the crossing of the threads forming a
diamond of four holes.
CONNECTING BARS are stitches used in the various kinds of
point lace, to unite different parts. The most simple is the
Sorrento Bar (No. 13), which is made by passing a thread from
one part to another, fastening it by a tight stitch, and twisting the
thread back on the bar thus formed; pass the thread round until it
appears as much twisted as a rope.
 Bars in Alencon Point (No. 14).—This is almost the same as our
common herring bone stitch, but the needle is passed under the last
thread after every stitch before taking another, which twists the two
together. Where the space is more than half-an-inch wide, it is
requisite to pass the needle more than once under after every stitch.
Venetian Bars (No. 15).—Pass the needle backwards and forwards
two or three times, and work the bar thus formed in close button-
hole stitch. If it be a cross bar, work the button-hole stitch half the
length; make the bar in the opposite direction, work that; and if
another is required, do the same before finishing the first bar.
Edged Venetian Bars (No. 16) are merely the above edged on
each side with Brussels or Sorrento edging.
Dotted Venetian Bars (No. 17.)—To make these bars, pass the
thread across the space two or three times, and make four button-
hole stitches on the bar thus formed; put a needle in the fourth, and
draw it out until it will allow of three or four button-hole stitches
being worked on it; continue the bar in the same way.
English Bars (No. 18) are used to connect two lines of edging.
Pass the needle backwards and forwards between two opposite
stitches four times each way, always putting the needle in the under
side of the edge. Sometimes these bars are radiated, by missing a
stitch more on one side than on the other.
The marked characteristic of Spanish Point (No. 19) is a kind of
heavy satin stitch, with which parts are ornamented. It is very much
raised, and afterwards worked in button-hole stitch with fine linen
Mecklenburgh thread.
Continuous rows of Sorrento edges worked backwards and
forwards, like Brussels Lace, form a variety represented in a corner
of the Engraving.
The lower line of edging in the Engraving is termed Little
Venetian. It is worked like the other, but with only one button-hole
stitch.
When, by means of these different stitches, the pattern is formed
into a solid mass of work, the stitches at the back are to be cut, to
detach the lace from the paper; the threads may then be picked out
and the article is complete.
 To join point lace on to cambric or muslin, make an extremely
narrow hem on either, and lay the inner line of braiding on that. Join
them together by running on the middle of the braid through the
cambric, and then working a line of Brussels edge on to the inner
part of the braid, taking every stitch through both substances.
 CROCHET COLLAR
[Fig. 1.]

Materials.—Cotton, No. 30. Crotchet hook, No. 22; eagle card-

board gauge.
Chain of 180 stitches, on which work a row of dc.
2nd.—+ 3 tc., 3 ch., miss 3, +. Repeat. Finish with 3 tc.
3rd.—+ 3 dc. on 3 tc., 3 ch., +. Repeat.
4th.—+ sc. on 1st dc., 6 ch., miss 5, sc. on 6th, +. Repeat.
5th.—Sc. on the centre of first loop, +, 7 ch., sc. on centre of next
loop, +. Repeat.
6th.—Sc. on centre of first loop, + 6 ch., sc. on centre of next loop,
+. Repeat.
7th row.—Dc. on all the chain, missing every sc. stitch.
8th.—Sc. on first stitch, 9 ch., sc. on same stitch, 12 ch., sc. on
same stitch, 9 ch., sc. on same stitch, turn the work, dc. in every
chain of the 3 loops just formed, turn again, and work dc. on the
previous dc. except the first 5, 7 ch., miss 5 stitches of the 7th row, 6
dc. on the next 6, +. Repeat.
9th.—Sc. on the point of the leaf of 9, 4 ch., + sc. on point of large
leaf, 15 ch., +. Repeat. Finish the row with 4 ch., sc. on point of last
small leaf.
10th.—Dc. in every stitch of the last row working 2 in every 4th.
 11th.—+ 2 dc., 3 ch., miss 3, + until you come to the stitch over
the large leaf, then make a loop of 6 ch., dc. into the same stitch.
Repeat.
12th.—Dc. on all the rest of the line, working every loop thus—1 sc.,
4 dc., 1 sc.
15th.—Dc. in first dc. of last row, + 3 ch., miss 2, dc. in 3rd +.
Repeat, but without missing any on the loops.
16th.—Sc. on first chain of the foundation, and up the side work 4
ch., miss 2, 8 sc., sc. on every stitch of the last row, and dc. the other
end of the collar like the first.
17th.—Sc. under first loop, 5 ch., sc. under 2nd, repeat to the sc.
stitches, then + 5 ch. miss 2, sc. on 3rd, + to the end, which work
like the beginning.
 MAT WITH BORDER OF MOSS, CHERRIES,
AND LEAVES.
[Fig. 2.]

Materials.—Half-an-ounce of bright cherry-coloured Berlin wool;

two shades of green ditto, or of chenille a broder, two skeins of the
best green fleecy of different shades, or shaded Shetland will do as
well.
For the Moss.—If fleecy wool be used, it must be split, and a
thread of each shade taken, by using Pyrenees wool this trouble is
obviated. Take a pair of very fine knitting needles; cast on 16 to 20
stitches: knit a piece as tightly as possible, four times the length
required: wet, and bake or dry it before the fire. When it is quite dry,
cut off one edge throughout the whole length, and unravel all the
stitches but two at the other edge. (Take care to begin to unravel at
the end you left off knitting, or the wool will get entangled.) Fold it in
four, and sew the edges together. This will make a very full moss
fringe.
For the Cherries.—Cut a number of rounds in card, each the
diameter of a good-sized cherry. Cut a small hole in the middle of
each take a needleful of Berlin wool, three times the length of your
arm; thread it with a rug needle; pass the needle in the hole of the
card, holding the end of the wool with the left hand; pass the wool;
lay it on the edge of the card, as if you were going to wind it; pass the
needle through the hole again; repeat this until the whole needleful
of wool is used. Then make a little tuft of wool on the end of a rather
fine wire; twist the wire tight and pass the ends into the hole of the
card; take a pair of sharp-pointed scissors, cut the wool all round the
card; with a bit of waxed thread, tie as tightly as possible the little
bunch of wool in the hole of the card, tear the card off, and pare the
wool as smooth as velvet; cover the ends of wire with green wool or
silk, and each cherry is completed.
Leaves.—Make a cherry of 13 loops in green wool, and on them,
miss 4, dc. in 5th, ✕2 ch., miss 2, dc. in 3rd, twice 1 ch., miss 1, slip
on first of 13. Take a ✕piece of very fine wire and hold it in, while
working round this open hem, leaving a short piece for a stem. Work
all round in tc., except the 2 first and 2 last stitches which are to be 1
sc., 1 dc., and 1 dc., 1 sc., twist the two ends of wire together, cover
them with wool. When sufficient leaves are done, form them into a
wreath with the cherries, joining them by means of the ends of wire;
insert them in the moss, and sew the border thus made round a mat
of velvet, or work, lined with card-board, and with silk at the other
side.
This border may be used for any crochet or knitted mat; the moss
may be made more or less thick according to taste. A very full border
would require six lengths.
 INITIALS IN EMBROIDERY
[Fig. 3.]

Materials.—Ingrain red and white embroidery cotton, No. 70 for

linen, No. 80 for cambric.
These Initials should be marked on the material, and then worked
in the white cotton in raised satin stitch, after which a thread is to be
run entirely round the work, and sewed over in red very closely
indeed.
Every angle and point must be made with the utmost accuracy, as
on this the beauty of the letters greatly depends.
 AUTOUR BOUTONS.
[Fig. 4.]

Small pattern to surround shirt-studs; to be worked in embroidery

cotton, No. 80. The small rounds in eyelet-holes to be made with a
fine stiletto, and sewed over.
 A VERY PRETTY CARRIAGE BAG.
[Fig. 5.]

Materials.—White and blue Berlin wool, half-an-ounce of each;

two flat meshes, not quite a quarter of an inch broad, a piece of
French canvas, No. 24, one-half the size the bag is desired; gros-de
Naples, (the shade of the coloured wool), cord and tassels to match.
With the blue wool work on the canvass, in common cross-stitch, a
square of 6 stitches in every direction; miss an equal space and
repeat. Thus the whole space of canvass must be prepared like a
chess-board, the blue checks of one line coming between those of the
previous, the third over those of the first line, and so on. Having
completed this, take one of your meshes and a rug needle, threaded
with white wool, work immediately over each blue square of the first
line 6 stitches, thus:—Begin at the top of the stitch, lay the wool over
the mesh, take two threads for the lower part of the stitch, pass the
wool under the mesh, finish your stitch; repeat five times; leave the
mesh on the stitches; take the second mesh, work a second row
exactly alike over this; then, at the top, a third row of white stitches,
four threads long, and two broad.
 Turn the work, and in the space which is now over, but was first
under the first row of blue squares, work with the white, the rows
round the meshes, as before, and one of long white stitches.
Turn the work again, and work the next two rows of white stitches
round the meshes.
Repeat the same operation over every other line of blue squares.
Now take the work cross-way, and work in white, as before, every
space left; then cut the ends of the white wool.
Make up the bag with a top of silk, line it, add cords and tassels,
and it is complete.
If preferred without silk, have canvass the full size for a carriage
bag and work it all over.
 D’OYLEY IN SQUARE CROCHET.
[Fig. 6.]

Materials.—Cotton, No. 16; crochet hook, No. 18. Eagle card-

board gauge.
The size I have given for materials will make this d’oyley about 20
inches, as there are 88 squares, and 9 squares are equal to 2 inches.
Of course, with finer cottons and hooks, the size will be diminished.
Patterns given in square crochet are very pretty worked in two
colours of wool. The open squares should be worked in one colour,
and the close in the other; every square consisting of three dc.
stitches. Mats of this description should be tacked on a stand
previously formed of stout card or mill-board, covered with green
calico or silk.
DEEP POINT LACE, FOR A HANDKERCHIEF
OR VEIL.
[Fig. 8.]

Visitors to the London Exhibition, will recognise this pattern as

one of those in the gallery of that wondrous palace: I presume,
therefore, it will be very acceptable to my fair readers.
The pattern of the flowers is well adapted for the mandarin sleeves
which everbody wears just now. To draw the pattern for that
purpose, merely copy over and over again the two large flowers at the
bottom of the page. Draw the pattern on colored paper, and use a
fine sable brush, dipped in Indian ink for coloring the lines; paste the
paper on linen, and when dry it will be fit to be worked. A little more
management is required when a pattern for a handkerchief is to be
made. Cut a square of tissue paper, rather larger than the
handkerchief is to be,—double it twice, so as to mark the centre of
each side, and trace the three divisions of the corner flower up to a
on one side of this centre, leaving room for half of another division;
fold the paper and trace a similar piece of the flower on the other
side of the centre, and finish also the division in the middle. As it will
be seen on referring to the plate, that there are three divisions and
nearly half another up to the a, it will be evident that the centre
flower will have seven divisions. On the right of this centre draw
three of the flowers at the lower edge of the frontispiece, and at the
corner another flower, exactly like the centre one, but turned so as to
form a corner. Trace the left hand side of the centre from that already
done, and you will have a perfect side with two corners. Draw the
pattern on colored paper, from this one side, and line it with linen
before working it.
 You will observe that there are two straight lines of braid in the
inner border; the one nearest to the flowers is only to be laid on
when working the lace, and connected with the other: no edging is to
be put to it until after the hemmed cambric is laid underneath, when
it is to be run on, and then edged with Brussels edging.
a.—Sorrento edging. To be worked with Mecklenburgh thread,
120.
b.—Venice edging. Boar’s-head thread, No. 50.
c.—Brussels edge. Ditto.
d.—Bars of Venice Point. Mecklenburgh thread, 120.
e.—Rosettes worked on 4 threads: the centre ones gradually
increasing in size, towards the outer edge of the flower; the others as
small as the spots of English Point. Boar’s-head thread, No. 90.
f.—Open English lace. Ditto.
g.—Brussels lace. Ditto.
h.—English lace. Boar’s-head thread, No. 70.
i.—Sorrento bars. Mecklenburgh thread, No. 120.
j.—Rosettes. Thread No. 70.
k.—Bars in Alencon point. Ditto.