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2017 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies
2017 AEDCEE, 25‐26 May 2017, Bangkok, Thailand
CO2 Mitigation in Residential
The 15th International Sector
Symposium in Indonesia
on District Heating andand Thailand:
Cooling
Potential of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor
temperature function for a long-term
Tri Vicca Kusumadewi a
, Bundit district heat demand
Limmeechokchai a
* forecast
Sirindhorn
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Klong Luang 12120, Thailand
aa
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Abstract
b
Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
c
Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France
This paper presents an analysis of CO22 mitigation potential of renewable energy and energy efficiency in the residential sector in
Indonesia and Thailand. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model was used to analyze future energy demand,
energy consumption and CO22 emissions during 2010-2050. This study applied demand side management (DSM) options to
reduce CO22 emission in the residential sector by implementing renewable energy and energy efficiency measures in lighting,
Abstract
cooking, and cooling devices. In this analysis, five mitigation actions were selected, called Sustainable Solar System (Solar),
Sustainable Biogas System (Biogas), Efficient Lighting Devices (Lighting), Efficient Cooling Devices (Cooling), and Efficient
District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the
Cooking Stove (Cooking) scenarios. Results show that in 2050 the Cooling scenario shows the highest energy saving of 22.99%
greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
when compared with the BAU. In the BAU, energy demand and emission in Indonesian residential sector will be 73,578 ktoe and
sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
2eq in 2050, respectively. The highest CO22 mitigation of 45,208 kt-CO2eq
68,219 kt-CO2eq 2eq, accounted for 33.73% of emissions in the
prolonging the investment return period.
BAU, will be achieved in the Cooling and Lighting scenarios. In Thailand’s residential sector, the Cooling scenario shows the
The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand
highest energy saving of 6.04% in 2050 when compared with the BAU. In the BAU scenario in Thailand’s residential sector,
forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665
energy demand and CO22 emissions will be about 21,916 ktoe and 26,607 kt-CO2eq 2eq in 2050, respectively. The highest CO22
buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
2eq will be achieved in the Biogas scenario, CO22 reduction will be 11.42% of emissions in the
mitigation potential of 23,573 kt-CO2eq
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
BAU. The Lighting scenario shows the lowest potential of CO22 mitigation of 25,221 kt-CO2eq 2eq. The CO22 reduction will be 5.21%
compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.
of emissions in the BAU.
The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
© (the error inAuthors.
2017 annual Published
demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
2017 The
©scenarios,
Thethe
Authors.
error Published
value
by
by Elsevier
increased Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd. (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered).
Peer-review under responsibility of theupscientific
to 59.5% committee of the 2017 International Conference on Alternative Energy in
Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee
within of
the2017 AEDCEE.
DThe value Countries
eveloping of slope coefficient
and Emergingincreased on average
Economies. range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and
Keywords: CO22 mitigation; renewable energy; advanced technology; energy efficiency; residential sector; Indonesia and Thailand; LEAP model.
renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +66-2-986-9009 ; + fax: +66-2-986-9112.
Cooling.
E-mail address:
[email protected] Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of 2017 AEDCEE.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2017 International Conference on Alternative Energy in
Developing Countries and Emerging Economies.
10.1016/j.egypro.2017.10.086
956 Tri Vicca Kusumadewi et al. / Energy Procedia 138 (2017) 955–960
2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
1. Introduction
Climate change is a global issue that is caused by human activity by the use of fossil fuels and land use change
activities which emit greenhouse gasses (GHGs), especially carbon dioxide (CO2). GHG emissions generated from
burning of fossil fuels, ranging from cooking to power generation. Along with the increasing of population, the
concentration of GHGs also increases. Energy policy to reduce the emission was discussed for the first time at the
United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972. In order commemorate the twentieth
year of the Stockholm meeting, a conference which signed by United Nations Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. The UNFCC has the main objective in the form of stabilizing
GHGs concentrations in the atmosphere to be at a safe level [1]. In 1997, Kyoto Protocol which was formulated
under the UNFCCC, adopted at the third Conference of the Parties (COP3) in Kyoto, Japan [2]. This protocol
formulating the detailed steps that are required and can be taken by various countries that ratify it to achieve the
objectives agreed in the UN climate change policy. Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reduce CO2 and
others emissions are expected to reduce the average global weather between 0.02°C and 0.28°C by 2050. Therefore,
the objective of this study is to prepare for the sustainable development in the power sector which are capably
develop as one of the country energy resource replacing and fossil fuel consumption. In this study, the LEAP model,
developed by Stockholm Environment Institute, is employed to estimate energy demand and CO2 emission in
addiction to asses CO2 mitigation from five mitigation measures.
2. Energy use and CO2 mitigation
The residential sector plays a role in the final energy consumption. Most of the energy consumed in the
residential sector is used for cooking and the rest for residential electric devices. The fuel used for cooking in
addition to biomass is natural gas, LPG, kerosene, and electricity. The fossil fuel utilities have an impact on CO2
emission. The CO2 mitigation is an imperative issue since oil price rising and the countries depend on oil fuel.
In 2010, Indonesia has an approximate population of 237 million with inhabitant houses of approximately 59.12
million, which are 29.44 million in urban area and 29.68 million in rural area. Total energy consumption was about
270 ktoe. Energy demand follows the development of the gross domestic product (GDP). Based on the analysis of
economic development, GDP growth was accounted for 7.1% per year. It will cause the energy demand increased by
4.7% per year [3]. While in Thailand, the population was 66 million people with total households of 22.77 million
houses, which are 7.26 million in municipal area, 14.42 million in rural area and 1.09 million unregistered houses. In
2010, total energy consumption of Thailand residential sector was about 11,000 ktoe and accounted for 15.6% of
total final energy consumption. In the rural area is the most energy consuming area, and it was accounted for 76.7%
of final energy consumption in the residential sector in 2010, followed by the greater Bangkok 14.1%, and
municipal area by 9.2%. In the residential sector, the energy used is in the forms of traditional renewable energy,
electricity and petroleum products. The traditional renewable energy is the main fuel used in the residential sector,
and it was accounted for 56.3% of total energy consumption in the residential sector. The electricity consumption
was accounted for 25.4% share and petroleum product for 18.3% [4]. Thailand’s real GDP growth was 7.8% in
2010. In 2011 GDP growth rate was only 0.1% due to global economic recession and extensive flooding during the
latter half of 2011 [5].
The residential sectors of both countries play a role in the economy growth and contribute to increasing CO2
emission. CO2 emission mitigation in the residential sector can be achieved by energy efficiency improvement and
increasing of renewable energy utilization. Improved energy efficiency is a rational approach to boost economic
growth and increase energy security and can make a valuable contribution to decreasing CO2 emissions. This further
proves that renewable energy is a cost-effective solution to meet the energy demand. To realize this potential, the
government has set a target of energy saving plans. The achievement of these plans can help to improve energy
security and CO2 emission reduction. It identified four co-benefits from the use of renewable energy such as
benefits to the environment and climate; improving energy access, particularly in rural areas; increase employment
opportunities, improve macroeconomic performance; and improving energy security, contribute to creating a more
stable macroeconomic. Based on this information, both countries have faced similar issues about mitigating CO2
emission by increasing fossil fuel demand in the residential sector. Fossil fuel utilization would strongly impact on
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the reliability of future energy demand and CO2 emission in the residential sector. Therefore, this study examines
energy savings and CO2 mitigation of policy in both countries.
3. Renewable energy potential
Renewable energy is the energy derived from natural processes that do not involve the consumption of
exhaustible resources such as fossil fuels and uranium. Renewable energy is apart from the main sources of energy
such as natural gas, oil, and coal. Despite high growth rates of renewable energy, renewable energy still represents
only a small part of the global energy. Renewable energy sources currently supply between 15% and 20% of total
world energy demand. It is estimated that in 1990, all renewable energy sources produced nearly 2,900 TWh,
accounting for about 24% of the world’s total electricity supply [3]. Development of renewable energy is one way to
reduce CO2 emissions.
Biomass is a natural energy source, mostly coming from agriculture crops and residues, forest waste,
commodities of the plantation, and animal waste. Biomass is the only one of the renewable energy, which can be
used to produce three kinds of fuel, liquid, solid and gas fuels. Although it was believed that the advancement of a
country development would eventually reduce the biomass energy consumption as the modern form of energy will
take place [5]. This conclusion is not applicable to countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. For the case
of Thailand during 1980–1996, the use of biomass energy increased by 68% whereas the GDP/capita was triple.
Solar energy is one of the most promising sources of clean, renewable energy and it has the greatest potential than
any other power resource to solve the world’s energy problems [6].
4. Methodology
Renewable energy and advance technology in energy planning and polices is prepared by forecasting energy
demand. The input data is used from statistical reports, reviews of research papers, official government plan, and
online database. The scenarios include the BAU and mitigation cases in the period of 2010-2050. The scenario
description can be presented in Table 1.
Table 1. The scenario description in the energy forecasting
Scenario Description
BAU Energy system in BAU scenario will be modeled without any policy interventions.
Sustainable solar The electrification is replaced by renewable energy resources such as solar power. Two
system (Solar) solar systems are implemented which are solar water system and solar home system.
Sustainable biogas Biomass gasifier system is used for electricity production. Traditional fuels such as wood,
system (Biogas) charcoal and kerosene stoves will be replaced by biogas gasifier system.
Efficient lighting Lighting demands of the electrified residential sector were modeled by using four end-use
devices (Lighting) technologies. Those are incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, compact fluorescent lamps
(CFLs) and Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps. In the BAU, non-electrified households
use kerosene for lighting. In the ELD scenario, kerosene utilization will be fully replaced.
The use of LED lamps will increase following government plans
Efficient cooling Cooling scenario will play on the efficiency of refrigerator and air conditioning system.
devices (Cooling) The cooling system is one of the important devices in the residential sector. The electricity
use in cooling system has been growing rapidly. This study proposes the efficiency
improvement of the cooling devices
Efficient cooking The purpose is to change conventional cooking appliances to efficient appliances such as
stove (Cooking) efficient electric stove and induction stove. Those appliances will fully replaced fossil fuel
such as wood, kerosene and charcoal
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5. Result and discussion
5.1. BAU scenario
Energy consumption in the residential sector is categorized into electricity consumption (for lighting, air-
conditioning, and others), and thermal energy for cooking. Thermal energy comes from burning of fuel (kerosene),
LPG, natural gas (in large urban areas) and firewood (in suburban and rural) for cooking.
Fig. 1. (a). energy demand BAU scenario in Indonesia; (b) energy demand BAU scenario in Thailand
The increasing energy demand in the BAU scenario of Indonesia is presented in Fig. 2.(a) total energy demand
increased from 37,199 ktoe in the base year to 73,578 ktoe in 2050. The energy demand will increase about 50% in
2050 when compared with the base year. In Thailand total energy demand was 11,915 ktoe in 2010 (see Fig. 2.(b))
and will increase to 21,916 ktoe in 2050, it increases about 46% when compared with base year. The energy demand
in Indonesia is higher than Thailand because its population is larger than Thailand. In 2010 population in Indonesia
was about 237.6 million with 60.9 million households and it will increase to 423 million with 108.5 million
households in 2050 while in Thailand was about 66.4 million with 22.8 million households and it will increase to
74.9 million with 38.4 households in 2050.
5.2. Mitigation scenario
The total energy consumption per scenario in both countries are presented in Fig. 3.(a) for Indonesia and Fig.
3.(b) for Thailand.
Fig. 2. (a). total consumption in Indonesia; (b) total energy consumption in Thailand.
In addition, the impact of CO2 mitigation measures on the fuel mix in all scenarios is presented in Fig.4. Fig. 4.(a)
fuel mix in Indonesia residential sector shows that in the Cooking scenario even though the reduction in energy
consumption is high, fuel mix has considerably changed due to high penetration of electricity. In the Solar and
Biogas scenarios electricity use was decreased because of substitution of solar and biomass. In these scenarios, even
though reduction in energy consumption is the lowest, solar power and biomass demand increase resulting in CO2
reduction. Fig. 4.(b) shows fuel mix in Thailand residential sector. In Biomass and Cooking scenarios even though
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the reduction in energy consumption is low, fuel mix has considerably changed due to the high penetration of
biomass and biogas. In the Lighting and Cooling scenario, electricity consumption will decrease due to substitution
of efficient devices. The lowest reduction in energy consumption is Solar scenario, however, solar power was
increased and can reduce CO2 emission and electricity consumption.
Fig. 3. (a). fuel energy mix in Indonesia; (b) fuel energy mix in Thailand.
5.3. CO2 Emission
The Total CO2 emission result can be presented in Fig. 5. In Indonesia and Thailand in the BAU scenario, energy
demand comes from cooking, cooling, heating, entertainment, and lighting devices. Fig.5(a) presents CO2 emissions
in all scenarios in Indonesian residential sector. It can be seen that countermeasures scenario have shown significant
mitigation potential. CO2 emission of electrified and non-electrified residential accounted in the BAU scenario in
Indonesian residential sector will increase from 25,398 kt-CO2eq in 2010 to 68,219 kt-CO2eq in 2050, respectively. In
the figure, countermeasure scenarios show significant mitigation potential. Fig.5(b) presents CO2 emissions in all
scenarios in Thailand’s residential sector. In the BAU scenario, CO2 emission has increased by 14,505 kt-CO2eq in
2010 to 26,607 kt-CO2eq in 2050, respectively.
Fig. 4. (a). total CO2 emission in Indonesia; (b) total CO2 emission in Thailand.
CO2 reduction in Thailand is lower when compared with Indonesia. In Indonesia, CO2 reduction in the Cooling
and Lighting scenario will be about 33.73% when compared with the BAU scenario in 2050. It was followed the
Solar scenario by 33.55%, Biogas scenario by 33.38%, and Cooking scenario by 21.04% when compared with BAU
scenario, respectively. In Thailand, CO2 reduction in the Biogas scenario, Solar scenario, Cooking scenarios,
Cooling scenario, and Lighting scenario will be 11.40%, 10.67%, 8.49%, 6.25%, and 5.21% when compared with
the BAU scenario, respectively.
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In 2050 in the BAU scenario, CO2 emission per capita will be about 0.00016 t-CO2eq for Indonesia and 0.00036 t-
CO2eq for Thailand. In Indonesia, CO2 emission per capita in the Cooking scenarios will be 0.00013 t-CO2eq,
following by Solar, Biogas, Cooling and Lighting in the same value 0.00011 t-CO2eq, respectively. In Thailand, CO2
emission per capita in the Lighting scenario will be about 0.00034 t-CO2eq, followed by the Cooling and Cooking
scenario (0.00033 t-CO2eq), Biogas scenario (0.00032 t-CO2eq), and Solar scenario (0.00031 t-CO2eq), respectively. It
can be concluded that CO2 emission per capita for Thailand will be higher than Indonesia. It can be seen that the
total population in Indonesia is almost six times of population in Thailand (423 million vs. 74.9 million). Table 1
provides the cumulative CO2 emission and CO2 emission per capita in 2050 in the energy efficiency scenario of two
countries.
Table 2. CO2 emissions per capita in 2050.
CO2 emission in 2050 CO2 emission per capita in 2050
Scenario
(kt-CO2eq) (t-CO2eq)
Indonesia Thailand Indonesia Thailand
BAU 68,219 26,607 0.00016 0.00036
Solar 45,335 23,768 0.00011 0.00031
Biogas 45,449 23,573 0.00011 0.00032
Cooking 53,866 24,349 0.00013 0.00033
Cooling 45,208 24,944 0.00011 0.00033
Lighting 45,208 25,221 0.00011 0.00034
6. Conclusion
This study investigated the prospect of CO2 mitigation under countermeasure policies in the residential sector in
Indonesia and Thailand. In addition, sustainable development and energy security policies in the residential sectors
of two countries are found when increasing renewable energy utilization and energy efficiency. Benefits can be
gained by CO2 mitigation. Co-benefits of renewable energy and efficient devices were examined in terms of
reduction of air pollutants and impact on energy security in the residential sector. The reduction of CO2 emission
from renewable energy utilization will play a crucial role in the transition towards a low carbon society in Asia.
Acknowledgements
Authors would like to thank Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) for the supports on the LEAP model.
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