EVA and Market Value
EVA and Market Value
1177/1096348005284268
Kim / EVA OF
JOURNAL AND TRADITIONAL
HOSPIT ACCOUNTING
ALITY & TOURISM MEASURES
RESEARCH
This study tests the hypothesis that Economic Value Added (EVA) is more highly associated
with hospitality firm values than with traditional performance measures. The purpose of
this study is to provide empirical evidence on the relative and incremental information con-
tent of EVA and traditional performance measures, earnings, and cash flow. Regression
analysis tests the information content of EVA and indicates that earnings are more useful
than cash flow in explaining the market value of hospitality firms. EVA itself has very little
explanatory power. Incremental information content tests show that EVA makes only a
marginal contribution to information content beyond earnings and cash flow. Overall, the
results do not support the hypothesis that EVA is superior to traditional accounting
measures in association with equity market value.
KEYWORDS: Economic Value Added (EVA); earnings; cash flow; relative informa-
tion content; incremental information content; hospitality firm values
Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, Vol. 30, No. 1, February 2006, 34-49
DOI: 10.1177/1096348005284268
© 2006 International Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education
34
CALCULATION OF EVA
where
where
EVA is positive if ROIC exceeds the cost of financing. In this case, the com-
pany has created shareholder value. On the other hand, when EVA is negative, the
company has lost value.
The computation of NOPAT can be explained by the following equation:
where
Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) is pre-interest but after-tax corporate
earnings. A way to calculate NOPAT is the Earnings Before Interest and Tax
(EBIT) minus taxes. The terms Operating Profit (Income) and Operating Earn-
ings are widely used instead of EBIT. In other words, NOPAT is the amount of net
profit after tax plus interest expense.
There are as many as 164 items for potential adjustment for NOPAT but only a
few adjustments are necessary to provide a good measure of EVA (Prober, 2000).
Stewart (1991) recommends that the adjustments to the definition of EVA be
made only if (a) the amounts are significant, (b) the adjustments have a material
impact on EVA, (c) operating people can readily grasp it, and (d) the required
information is easy to track. The number of recommended adjustments has been
declining in recent years because backtesting and simulation have shown that
most of the proposed adjustments have little or no impact on profits (Young,
1999).
The adjustment items recommended by Johnson (2001) include adding the
increase in the LIFO reserves, the increase in the bad debt reserves, the increase in
capitalized R&D, other operating income, and subtracting an estimate of taxes
owed for the period.
Capital begins with the book value of shareholder’s equity. Some adjustments
need to be made to convert accounting capital to economic capital (invested capi-
tal). Interest-bearing debt is added to capital because the debt represents financing
(Johnson, 2001). Deferred income taxes created by increasing deferred tax assets
are added because they are never paid off and thus represent permanent capital.
Deferred income taxes are defined as a balance sheet account that describes the
effect of timing differences between the amount of income taxes that are reported
as due for financial reporting purposes, and the amount of income taxes that are
actually due and payable to the taxing authorities (Young, 1999). Deferred taxes
commonly arise from differences between the amount of depreciation expense
recognized for financial reporting purposes and the (greater) amount of deprecia-
tion reported for tax purposes caused by the use of accelerated depreciation meth-
ods. The add-back of accumulated goodwill amortization is consistent with
adding back the deductions on the income statement.
Another important but missing variable in Equation 1 is the calculation of a
firm’s WACC (weighted average cost of capital). WACC is calculated by multi-
plying the cost of each capital component by its proportional weighting and then
summing:
where
The before-tax cost of debt is estimated by using the promised yield on newly
issued long-term bond of the firm, which is reported in Standard & Poor’s Bond
Guide. The after-tax cost of debt is calculated by multiplying the before-tax cost
by (1 – corporate tax rate). The following equation expresses the cost of equity (Ke):
where
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used as a basis for estimating the cost
of equity. The risk-free rate is the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill rate or the monthly
return on 30-day U.S. Treasury bill as a proxy of risk-free rate (Kim, Gu, &
Mattila, 2002). The beta is obtained from the COMPUSTAT database. The market
risk premium is the reward-premium that investors implicitly require for investing
in a diversified portfolio of stocks instead of risk-free treasury bills. It is the differ-
ence between the expected return on a market portfolio and the risk-free rate.
Once those rates, cost of debt and cost of equity, are determined, they are com-
bined with the relative proportions of capital to calculate the weighted average
cost of capital (WACC).
Numerous studies have been conducted since Stern Stewart introduced the
EVA metric in 1989. Most of the research was designed to examine if EVA is more
correlated with stock return or market value than are other traditional accounting
performance measures. Analysis of the EVA literature indicates mixed results.
Milunovich and Tsuei (1996) applied the EVA measure to the computer indus-
try. They found that EVA was the most influential variable affecting MVA. EPS
growth came second, and free cash flow was the last variable. Their regression
analysis showed changes in EVA explaining 42% of changes in MVA.
Lehn and Makhija (1997) studied the relation between six performance mea-
sures and stock returns. They used data from 452 U.S. companies from 1985 to
1994. The results revealed that EVA and MVA are effective measures of perfor-
mance. Moreover, the correlation of EVA with stock returns (.59) was slightly
higher than the correlation of MVA (.58), ROE (.46), ROA (.46), or ROS (.39).
Thus, EVA and MVA appear to be somewhat better long-run performance mea-
sures than conventional accounting performance measures.
Some studies refute the assertion that EVA is more highly associated with
stock returns than accounting earnings and operating cash flows. Clinton and
Chen (1998) analyzed the relationship of various performance measures to stock
price and stock returns. In addition to EVA, they examined Cash Flow Return on
Investment (CFROI) and Residual Cash Flow (RCF) as measures worth consider-
ing. They selected 325 companies from Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Stern
Stewart 1996 Performance 1,000 databases and studied the years from 1991 to
1995. EVA was the only measure that did not reveal a consistently significant
association with either stock price or stock return. In the same line, Chen and
Dodd (2001) concluded that the market may place higher reliance on audited
accounting earnings than the unaudited EVA metric did. Their findings failed to
support the assertion that EVA is the best measure for valuation purposes.
Biddle et al. (1997) tested the assertions that EVA is more highly associated
with stock returns and firm values than accrual earnings, and evaluated which
component of EVA, if any, contributed to these associations. The results indicated
that earnings (R2 = 12.8%) were significantly more highly associated with market-
adjusted annual returns than either Residual Income (R2 = 7.3%) or EVA (R2 =
6.5%) and that all three of these measures dominate cash from operations (R2 =
2.8%). Correlations between the independent variables were all positive and sig-
nificant except EVA and RI, which were negatively correlated with cash from
operations (CFO). Earnings before extraordinary items (EBEI) had the highest
correlation with market-adjusted return. The empirical results do not support the
conclusion that EVA dominates earnings in relative information content, and sug-
gest rather that earnings generally outperform EVA.
Even though EVA has been gaining popularity since the 1990s, few studies
have applied it to the hospitality industry. Ganchev (2000) adopted EVA measure-
ment in pursuit of acquisition or development of hotel real estate. In this study, he
provided EVA as a tool to analyze the project’s profitability and to understand
how return on investment changed with shifts in strategy. He also stated that EVA
helps the investor evaluate asset performance in any single year, while the DCF
(Discounted Cash Flow) shows the investment returns over the life of the projects.
The results of the EVA literature are inconclusive. On one hand, some evidence
supports the superiority of EVA to traditional performance measures. On the
other hand, theoretical arguments and empirical evidence questions the
advantages of EVA.
Hypotheses
The primary purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the rela-
tive and incremental information content of EVA and traditional performance
measures. Relative information content comparisons analyze if one measure pro-
vides greater information content than another. Incremental information content
comparisons assess whether one measure provides more information content than
another. The first hypothesis tests the assertion that EVA dominates traditional
performance measures in explaining firm values. Stewart (1994) argues that EVA
is better than its traditional performance measures in explaining changes in
shareholder wealth.
pay income taxes on its earnings. The amount of cash that is left over after the pay-
ment of these investments and taxes is free cash flow. The conventional way of as-
sessing the relative information content is to compare the coefficients of determi-
nation (R2) of various simple regressions that analyze the relation between various
performance measures and equity market value.
The second hypothesis refers to the incremental information content.
Hypothesis 2: EVA adds information content to that provided by NOPAT and FCF.
2
To assess incremental information content one analyzes the increase in the R
that arises from the inclusion of more variables in the model.
METHOD
as a proxy of a risk-free rate. There is a continuing dispute over what that premium
should be and whether it should be derived from the arithmetic or geometric mean
of this spread over time. Most service companies use a risk premium of approxi-
mately 7% (Johnson, 2001). Following Stewart’s (1991) methodology, 6% of the
market-risk premium is used for the calculation of the cost of equity.
To test the accuracy of EVA calculation method described above, EVA data
from the Stern Stewart with all necessary adjustments are compared with EVA
calculated in this study. The Pearson correlation coefficients between these two
sets of data for the entire period of 1995 to 2001 showed high correlation with
average correlation coefficients of .76 at the significance level of .01. Therefore,
we can safely conclude that the estimated EVA in this study has significant, posi-
tive association with Stern Stewart’s estimated EVA.
MKTCAP = B0 + B1EVACAP + e
MKTCAP= B0 + B1NOPATCAP + e
MKTCAP= B0 + B1FCFCAP + e
where
B0 = constant
MKTCAP = Market value of Equity / Capital
EVACAP = Economic Value Added / Capital
NOPATCAP = Net Operating Profit After Tax / Capital
FCFCAP = Free Cash Flow / Capital
e = the error terms of regression
Table 1
Variable Definitions, Means, and Standard Deviations
Note: EVA = Economic Value Added; NOPAT = net operating profit after tax.
where
B0 = constant
MKTCAP = Market value of Equity / Capital
EVACAP = Economic Value Added / Capital
NOPATCAP = Net Operating Profit After Tax / Capital
FCFCAP = Free Cash Flow / Capital
e = the error terms of regression.
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
To reduce the heteroscedasticity in the data, the researcher deflated all inde-
pendent variables (NOPAT and FCF) and a dependent variable (MKT) by divid-
ing all three variables by capital (equity plus long-term debt). The prediction
errors as a percentage of capital are much closer to a normal distribution than the
prediction errors in absolute dollars (O’Byrne, 1996). The variable definitions,
means, and standard deviations of the four variables appear in Table 1. As shown
in Table 1, the average hospitality firm trades at approximately 1.3 times the book
value of capital and earns a 9.6% rate of return on total capital. However, the aver-
age firm produces EVACAP and FCFCAP that are not different from zero.
In Table 2, relative information content is evaluated by comparing adjusted R2s
from three separate regressions, one for each performance measure, NOPATCAP,
FCFCAP, and EVACAP. First, one should note that all of the regressions are sig-
nificant according to the F statistic at the .01 level. The results suggest that in
terms of relative information content all three performance measures are statisti-
cally significant variables at the level of .01. Adjusted R2s from three regressions
are presented in Table 2. Earnings (NOPATCAP) have the greatest ability to
explain market value with adjusted R2 of 16.9%. Next, FCFCAP has significantly
larger adjusted R2 (14.2%) than does the EVACAP (10.3%). The results of regres-
sion analysis indicate that earnings (NOPATCAP) have the highest explanatory
power, followed by cash flow (FCFCAP). Economic value added (EVA) has a rel-
atively limited explanatory power. The explanatory power of findings of Biddle
et al. (1997) is consistent with this study: earnings (R2 = 12.8%), residual income
(R2 = 7.3%), and EVA (R2 = 6.5%). Thus, the results fail to confirm Hypothesis 1.
Table 3 shows the results of the incremental information content of three per-
formance measures. To detect the presence of first-order autocorrelation among
the residuals of this sample, Durbin-Watson d statistic was used. The d statistic
Table 2
Tests of the Relative Information Content of NOPATCAP, FCFCAP, and EVACAP
2
NOPATCAP FCFCAP EVACAP F Adj. R
Note: EVA = Economic Value Added; NOPATCAP = net operating profit after tax divided by
capital; FCFCAP = free cash flow divided by capital; EVACAP = EVA divided by capital. The
dependent variable is the ratio of market value of equity to capital. The independent variables
are net operating profit, free cash flow, and EVA, standardized by the capital. t-statistics are
provided in parenthesis.
** statistically significant at the .01 level.
Table 3
Tests of the Incremental Information Content of NOPATCAP, FCFCAP, and EVACAP
Model 1 Model 2
Independent variables
NOPATCAP 0.316 (8.23)** 0.290 (7.46)**
FCFCAP 0.260 (6.77)** 0.210 (5.15)**
EVACAP 0.137 (3.42)*
R2 .229 .243
Adjusted R2 .226 .240
F-value 0.156** 0.176**
∆R2 — .015
F-value for ∆R2 — 11.692*
Durbin-Watson 2.06 2.05
Note: The dependent variable is the ratio of market value of equity to capital. t-statistics are
provided in parentheses.
* statistically significant at the .05 level. ** statistically significant at the .01 level.
ranges from 2.05 to 2.06. It shows that error terms are serially independent, with
an average error term of zero. To detect the presence of multicollinearity, the vari-
ance inflation factor (VIF) was computed. In general, the VIF cutoff threshold
would be 10 (Hair, Anderson, Tatham, & Black, 1998). The VIF values for all
NOPATCAP, FCFCAP, and EVACAP were 1.206, 1.330, and 1.285, respectively,
which indicated a low degree of multicollinearity among the independent
variables.
The overall increase in R2 is minimal (1.5% increase) between the first regres-
sion on NOPATCAP and FCFCAP and the second regression on all three perfor-
mance measures. Although the contribution of EVA in explaining market value of
hospitality firms is slight, increased R2 is statistically significant at the .05. Thus,
the result accepts Hypothesis 2. In sum, the results show evidence that EVA still
adds incremental information to that provided by earnings and cash flow in
explaining market value of hospitality firms.
CONCLUSIONS
and practitioners in understanding how the market value of hospitality firms was
affected by EVA and traditional measurements. An attempt to find appropriate
performance measures, which explain market value, is an ongoing effort for hos-
pitality financial managers and investors. This study has presented results that
show that EVA is a significant predictor of market value with traditional perfor-
mance measures, even if EVA turned out not to be superior to traditional account-
ing measures. Hitherto, no hospitality researcher has extracted and compared the
relative differences and incremental value of EVA and traditional accounting per-
formance measures. So even though the results have limited value, the study
moves us closer to an explanation of EVA both as a potentially important perfor-
mance measure and as an important analytical tool for capital budgeting and hotel
acquisition analysis. As a way of demonstrating to shareholders the firm’s com-
mitment to adding economic value, hospitality companies may soon need to
disclose EVA in their annual report.
This study is not free of limitations, which may present some potential subjects
for further research. The research is limited in scope for the following reasons.
There are many adjustment items to be considered in computation of NOPAT and
IC, thus the value of EVA can be contingent upon on the researchers’ choice of
items included in the calculation. In addition, most of the models showed low
explanatory power with low R2 values. In other words, the selected independent
variables accounted for only a small portion of the variance of market values.
Another limitation is the selection of the variables used in this study. The vari-
ables used in this research were arbitrarily chosen among those that were used in
other research studies and considered important influences upon market value.
Some other performance measures such as ROI, ROE, ROS, ROA, and EPS could
be used in future studies.
Because the hotel and restaurant companies have different financial structures,
future research studies could divide hotel and restaurant companies into inde-
pendent samples. It would be helpful to analyze and compare EVA efficiency in
the lodging and restaurant sectors of the hospitality industry. Therefore more
meaningful results could be produced. Future research should be undertaken to
discover the other factors that influence stock returns. Another study could focus
on the trends in the correlation of EVA and MVA in the hospitality industry.
NOTE
1. Stern Stewart & Company is a New York–based global consulting firm that special-
izes in measuring internal and external performance through its proprietary EVA® (Eco-
nomic Value Added) framework.
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