POWERING

PAKISTAN'S FUTURE
Pathways to Optimize Affordable and
Sustainable Electricity Generation,
Beyond IGCEP 2024-34

A Plexos Based Model For Least Cost Power Production

 Powering
Pakistan's Future
Pathways to Optimize
Affordable and Sustaibnable
Electricity Generation,
Beyond IGCEP 2024-34

A Plexos Based Model For

Least Cost Power
Production
About Us
Renewables First (RF) is a think tank for energy and the
environment. RF’s work addresses critical energy and natural
resource issues with the aim of making energy and climate
transitions just and inclusive through impactful research,
advocacy, and strategic partnerships.

Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development

(PRIED) is a think-tank committed to sustainable and
equitable development and a low carbon future. We
produce high quality research to partake in and promote
a global discourse on transition to renewable sources of
energy; institutionalize interaction between all energy sector
stakeholders in Pakistan; provide regulatory input, policy
critique and research support to the parliament, government
departments, aid organizations and international financial
institutions; and organize events for networking and
information-sharing.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study

Authors
Ubaid Ullah Khan | Renewables First

Shaheera Tahir | Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development

Contributors
Ammar Qaseem | Renewables First

Amina Shahab | Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development

Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the support of all partner organizations, government & private entities and independent
energy experts who have made this study possible. We are especially thankful to the National Power Control
Center (NPCC) for facilitating some of our data requirements.

Designer
Sana Shahid | Renewables First

Disclaimer
All the information and analysis provided in this document are accurate and to the best of our knowledge and
understanding, in case you identify any error, please email: [email protected]

© Renewables First & Policy Research Institue for Equitable development (PRIED)
You are actively encouraged to share and adapt the report, but you must credit the authors and title.

Please cite as:

Renewables First and Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development, “Powering Pakistan's Future -
Pathways to Optimize Affordable & Sustainable Electricity Generation”, 2024, www.renewablesfirst.org &
https://www.priedpk.org/
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study

Foreword by CEO (PRIED & RF)

Salman Faruqui, a seasoned civil servant with over the total planned. This means that the rest 99% are
seven decades of experience, recently authored not subject to least cost optimization. This means
his memoir, Dear Mr. Jinnah -- 70 years in the life that only 1% of Pakistan’s electricity in the next
of a Pakistani civil servant. The book chronicles his decade will be generated from projects optimized
journey through Pakistan’s bureaucracy, offering under the least-cost principle, while the vast majority
insightful reflections on some of the most significant will be produced through pre-committed projects—
events in the country’s history. During a book regardless of their cost. This is in sharp contrast to
launch in Karachi, when questioned about the hefty the previous edition of IGCEP, where the share
capacity payments being made to Independent of candidate projects open to optimization was
Power Producers (IPPs), Faruqui highlighted two significantly higher.
important details: in 1993, the government predicted
that Pakistan’s electricity demand would reach This situation is both problematic and absurd.
55,000 megawatts by 2018, and it sought to cap the Despite the use of advanced modeling software like
share of electricity production in this demand by PLEXOS, policymakers have effectively rendered
IPPs at 2,500 megawatts to avoid excessive capacity the entire process moot by committing to projects
payments. whose necessity is questionable and which the
software is not allowed to comment on. Large shares
As of 2024, while the total capacity of IPPs has of hydroelectric and nuclear in the form of Diamer
soared to over 12,000 megawatts, contributing to Bhasha and C-5 have been declared as committed
massive capacity payments running into hundreds even when, as our study shows, they are neither least-
of billions of rupees annually, the country’s peak cost nor needed for their capacity in the electric grid.
demand remains well below 30,000 megawatts,
far short of the 55,000-megawatt forecast for 2018. While this is the situation on the supply side, there
Faruqui's memoir suggests that the government has is little effort on the demand side to reign in new
been building power plants for years to cater for a consumers. Captive power plants, which can raise
demand that was simply not there, leaving Pakistan utilization rates of idle plants, remain outside the
with more electricity than it can consume and more national grid due to industrial mistrust in the
capacity payments than it can afford. government’s ability to ensure stable and reliable
electricity. At the same time, there is no initiative by
It is notable here, however, that these erroneous the government to consider new technologies such
“assumptions” and “plans” on part of the as battery storage or electric vehicles, both of which
government were never formally conducted, never could increase electricity consumption through the
published, and never subjected to independent grid and lower average electricity costs.
reviews or consultations. It was only in 2021 that
the first long-term electricity generation plan, the The government may have been wrong in its
IGCEP, was approved by the regulator. There is a assumptions about the projected power demand
consistent pattern here: governmental institutions, in the past, but demand can always be increased
bureaucrats, and politicians have repeatedly made through proactive measures and initiatives. The
ill-informed, last-minute decisions within the hidden government must also realize that reduced demand
corridors of power, resulting in the disaster we see in of electricity in the grid is not independent of its
the energy sector today. own behavior. Flawed planning, coupled with erratic
policies, has alienated consumers and investors alike
Where do things stand today? The approval of IGCEP and the recent rise in roof-top net metering is an
in 2021 and the Transmission System Expansion Plan evident example of the public's growing distrust in
(TSEP) in 2022-mark major milestones in Pakistan’s the government’s ability to provide reliable energy.
history. For the first time, long-term electricity
generation and transmission plans were developed In the current study, our team has made an attempt
through structured processes, subject to public to discuss the above scenarios and more with the
scrutiny – at least in principle - and made publicly intention of improving transparency and quality
accessible. These plans have garnered significant in power sector planning. By shedding light on
attention from various stakeholders and brought the severe shortcomings in the current plan and
greater clarity to the consumers and developers proposing alternative scenarios, the authors hope
alike. to provide policymakers with the insights they need
to correct course. Without careful reassessment,
However, some issues remain which indicate that Pakistan risks burdening itself with unnecessary
the government's mindset has not changed. While electricity projects—projects that could impose
the earlier editions of the IGCEP indicated significant unsustainable costs for generations to come, a
promise with regards to renewable energy sources mistake that we have continued to make in the past
and least cost planning, the latest IGCEP has reduced and are in the process of making yet again.
the optimizable candidate projects to merely 1% of
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 6

Contents

List of Abreviations 1

Executive Summary 2

Chapter 1: An Overview of Pakistan’s Power Sector 5

Chapter 2: Power Sector Planning Process 8

Chapter 3: Assumptions & Methodology 10

Chapter 4: The Study Outputs 22

Chapter 5: Generation Sequence & Recommendations 42

APPENDIX (Utilization Rates) 45

Glossary 54
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 1

List of Abreviations

Key Documents

IGCEP Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan

TSEP Transmission System Expansion Plan

ISP Integrated System Plan

ARE Policy 2019 Alternative & Renewable Energy Policy

Institutions & Entities

MoE Ministry of Energy

NTDC National Transmission and Desptach Company Limited

CPPA-G Central Power Purchasing Agency

DISCO Distribution Company (Total 10 in Pakistan)

KE K-Electric

AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board

IPP Independent Power Producer

GENCO Government Owned Generation Company

CPP Captive Power Plants

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

GENCOs State-owned Generation Companies

NEECA National Energy Efficiency & Conservation Authority

IPPs Independent Power Producers

CPPs Captive Power Producers

Others

ISP Integrated System Plan

VRE Variable Renewable Energy

kW, MW, GW Units of Power

kWh, MWh, GWh Units of Energy

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 2

Executive Summary

Pakistan's power generation capacity expansion but persisting capacity payments. Therefore, it is
planning process continues to face credibility indispensable to critically analyze any future capacity
challenges despite being regularly conducted additions in terms of impact on the overall system
within an established regulatory framework. The cost, be they strategic or committed. The IGCEP plays
newly launched Indicative Generation Capacity a crucial role in this regard, as it outlines the specific
Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2024-2034 (IGCEP 2024), power plants that need to be constructed following
succeeding the previous IGCEP 2022-2032 (IGCEP the least cost criteria, along with their respective
2022), launched after a one-year delay, reveals timelines, to ensure a seamless transition to a more
significant changes in load patterns, generation efficient and economically viable energy mix.
patterns, and capacity expansion plan. The IGCEP
is a comprehensive planning document prepared To conduct this rigorous exercise, we have leveraged
annually by the National Transmission and Despatch our previous dataset and modified it to incorporate
Company (NTDC) as per the Grid Code 2022 and the latest available information. In addition, we
approved by the National Electric Power Regulatory have engaged with NTDC in the acquisition of the
Authority (NEPRA). latest load profile data, whereas no other agency
we reached out to provide the data we needed.
NTDC has defined its base case for the IGCEP 2024 Data acquisition and availability challenges have
predicated on an average GDP growth rate of 3.5%, remained, but we have managed to bring forth this
a figure considered low compared to the previous report in a condensed time of four to five months,
year's plan. In 2023-24, Pakistan's installed capacity using the best-suited assumptions wherever
stood at 43.7 GW, projected to scale up to 56 GW required.
by 2033-34 according to the latest plan. While this
increase corresponds to rising electricity demand, The formation of a long-term capacity expansion
the projected peak demand is significantly lower plan is a praiseworthy effort as it sets a baseline
than in the 2022 version. For instance, the financial direction for the power sector. However, there are
year 2030-2031 is now expected to see a peak certain transparency and methodology issues, which
demand of 34 GW — about seven GW less than include:
previously envisaged.
• Incomplete disclosure of committed and
Additionally, total energy consumption is reduced strategic projects’ cost data
by 18%, and peak demand projections have been
• Missing technical data such as ramp-up, ramp-
notably lowered, with the high growth scenario for
down rates, and scheduled and forced outages
2034 now equivalent to the low growth scenario
of thermal plants.
from the previous plan. Notably, although overall
electricity demand and consumption have dropped • Missing information and rationale behind
since last year, the generation expansion planning macroeconomic assumptions such as forming
still needs to uphold the principles of reliable, base case on a low GDP growth rate.
affordable, and sustainable energy supply across
the country. Alarmingly, over 99% of the capacity • Over 19 GW capacity additions have been
additions over the planning period of 2024 to 2034 modeled as committed keeping the modeling
are committed projects, leaving no room for least tool blind to their capital costs.
cost optimization by the power sector generation
planning software PLEXOS. This report, a sequel • Heavily relying on hydro projects that will
to our previous study 'Powering Pakistan's Future' generate electricity from far away from the load
launched in 2023, endeavors to verify the outputs centers. Also, the impact of dry seasons such as
of the latest plan, along with bringing forward the winter should also be considered.
outcomes of a true least cost generation expansion
• No weightage given to projected alternate and
modeling exercise. We do so by first replicating the
renewable energy shares in the national grid
2024 base case and extending it to various realistic
mandated by the ARE Policy 2019
and futuristic scenarios and sensitivities. Using this
approach, we believe that the people of Pakistan can • No scenario built on assessing how PLEXOS
be better informed about the status quo of energy optimizes the generation expansion if
sector planning, its deficiencies, and the opportunity committed projects are taken as candidate
costs of paths undertaken by the government. generation options.

This assessment is also critical as the existing • Not exploring the financial implications of
thermal ‘take or pay’ power plants are rendering the delayed or early retirements of expensive
power sector financially unviable and becoming a thermal power plants.
financial burden because of their low utilization rates
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 3

The latest iteration of IGCEP specifies that about (CAPEX) and ongoing operational expenditure
20 GW of new capacity will be constructed and (OPEX) of these projects into PLEXOS and allowed
integrated into the national grid over the next decade, it to select, reject or optimize them. As a result,
increasing generation capacity to 56,046 MW. This installed capacity by 2033 reaches 46.6 GW with 6.2
capacity expansion endeavor demands a substantial GW VREs in the base case, 55.4 GW with 14 GW VREs
investment, estimated at USD 63.31 billion as per in the medium growth, 59.3 GW with 15.56 GW VREs,
IGCEP 2024. The committed Diamer Basha Dam and respectively.
Chashma Nuclear Unit-5 projects constitute a major
portion of this required investment; but are they 2. As net metering quantum continues to
truly needed to meet the system demand; this is a increase because of soaring electricity prices
question that we explore in this report. and declining solar PV prices, no capacity
additions will be required in the grid except
This report is a continuation of an effort that started for committed projects until the year 2027.
in 2021, in collaboration with Renewables First (RF)
and the Policy Research Institute for Equitable IGCEP 2024 projects 2.1 GW of net metering additions
Development (PRIED), to verify the generation by 2034, however, the net metering additions have
planning process being followed in Pakistan and already crossed 2 GW. As electricity consumers
understand its implications for an average end continue to become prosumers with rooftop solar
consumer in terms of affordability and sustainability. installations, large scale generators away from load
We performed the same modeling exercise as NTDC centers can be avoided, bringing total installed
did in formulating the IGCEP 2022 using the publicly capacity to 44.7 GW by 2033 with 4.7 GW of VRE, and
available data, and assumptions, constraints, and enabling total system cost savings of $3.7 billion.
data provided in the IGCEP 2022. Yet the results
3. If the load of captive power plants is shifted
varied, and renewables were heavily optimized by
on to the national grid, utilization rates
our model. The 2024 iteration of the IGCEP, however,
of existing fleet become better, and no
depicts an energy mix that not only contradicts
significant capacity has to be added to cater
our previous study results but also contradicts its
their load in the NTDC system. Whereas, in
previous 2022 iteration. Therefore, it is critical to
the KE system, 2.77 GW of Solar & wind, 82
evaluate IGCEP 2024 results, and what has led to
MW of hydro, and 1.22 GW of coal is optimized.
such a stark shift in installed capacity by 2034 from
different technologies. IGCEP 2024 has no scenario which discusses the
impact of shifting industry load on the national grid
The study underscores the vital need to incorporate
owing to the frequent shortage of gas. If load of
a range of scenarios and sensitivities in power
industries is shifted on the national grid in phases
generation capacity expansion planning, integrating
(40% by FY 2027, 30% by FY 2029, and 30% by 2030),
macroeconomic factors for sound decision-
the installed capacity reaches 60 GW by 2033 with
making. To further enhance this process, we aim to
10.4 GW VREs (17% VRE share). The utilization rates of
involve academic institutions and utilize advanced
the existing generation fleet also improve as a result.
methodologies like Multi-Criteria Decision Making
(MCDM) and Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect 4. When EVs charging demand is considered
Analysis (FFMEA). By fostering collaboration with in the system, with pessimistic estimate of
academia, research institutions, and policy planning 2000 MW (400 MW in KE system and 1600
departments, we can ensure our strategies are both MW in NTDC system), no substantial capacity
innovative and robust, ultimately strengthening is optimized in the NTDC system leveraging
Pakistan’s energy resilience and sustainability for the the surplus capacity. Whereas, in the KE
future system, 1 GW of wind, 82 MW of hydro, and
305 MW of coal is optimized.
Some of the major findings of our analysis are as
follows: The total cost in this case is $62 billion owing to
new capacity additions and utilization rates of the
1. If committed projects are treated as candidate
existing fleet also improve as a result.
projects and evaluated on merit in the base
case, nearly $5.79 billion can be saved in total 5. When transmission capacity between NTDC
system cost, and VRE share can reach 13% in and KE system is increased the need for
the grid by 2033. In medium and high growth optimizing new generation options in KE
scenarios, the VRE share can further improve system is reduced
to 25% and 26% respectively.
When tie-line transmission capacity is realistically
Committed projects are plants that have not been assumed to increase to 3600 MW, the utilization of
built or entered commercial operation to date, yet KE’s fleet reduces significantly since the cheaper
their feasibility is not evaluated by the IGCEP. In this power from the national grid is available. Increasing
scenario we fed both the initial capital expenditure the interconnection capacity also reduces the need
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 4

for additional thermal power plants in the KE system. costly and environmentally unsustainable local coal
The results further suggest that the total installed and fossil fuels.
capacity by 2033 will be 56.7 GW with a total system
cost of around 60 billion USD. Leverage Rooftop Solar Growth: Encourage rooftop
solar installations to meet energy demands without
6. Diamer Bhasha Dam and CHASHNPP-5 are additional capacity investments, capitalizing on
both expensive and not needed in the system declining solar PV prices.

Treating these high-cost projects as candidate Incorporate EV and CPP Loads Strategically:
options show that they are not optimized by the Integrate EV charging infrastructure and shift
model due to their high cost and lack of need in CPP loads to the national grid to optimize existing
the grid, and if forcibly added, they will lead to capacity and promote renewable energy utilization.
unnecessarily incurred costs of up to $7.6 billion
(Diamer) and $5.52 billion (Chashma) as well as Avoid Unnecessary Capacity Additions: Given
causing a reduction in potential shares of renewable surplus capacity and underutilized plants, refrain
energy. from new capacity additions unless they meet strict
least-cost and sustainability criteria.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that significant

resources and energy have been dedicated to
conducting the above analysis. Driven by a genuine
Recommendations commitment to enhancing Pakistan's power sector,
our team has worked year-long to address the
Transparent Evaluation of Committed Projects: shortcomings in the IGCEP 2024-2034 diligently. We
Rigorously assess all committed projects against urge the government and planning agencies to be
least-cost criteria to ensure economic viability and more open to our insights and recommendations.
alignment with policy goals, particularly in increasing By integrating our findings, they can better serve the
renewable energy adoption. needs of Pakistan's citizens and advance towards a
more sustainable and efficient energy future.
Focus on Renewable Integration and Grid
Modernization: Prioritize investments in grid
infrastructure to accommodate renewable energy
sources and BESS, enhancing flexibility, reducing
losses, and preventing theft.

Enhance NTDC-KE Connectivity: Increase the

tie-line capacity between NTDC and KE to supply
affordable electricity, reducing KE's reliance on
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 5

Generation

Transmission

Consumption

Chapter 1:
An Overview of
Pakistan’s Power
Sector
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 6

The power sector of Pakistan can be broadly divided into three separate categories based on the flow of
electricity: generation, transmission & distribution, and consumption.

Generation

Generation of electricity across the country is carried out by a combination of state-owned Generation
Companies (GENCOs), large hydro power plants (maintained by WAPDA), nuclear plants, and Independent
Power Producers (IPPs) which include thermal, hydro and renewables.

Transmission & Distribution

Transmission of electric power across the country is the responsibility of NTDC which operates the primary
transmission network of Pakistan and supplies electricity to all areas of the country except the zone of
K-Electric (KE). KE, being a privately owned and vertically integrated utility, possesses its own transmission
system, which is the sole network for transmitting power to Karachi and some surrounding regions. However,
NTDC relates to the KE system through a 1100 MW tie-line, the capacity of which has augmented to 2050 MW,
after commissioning of KANUPP – K-Electric Interconnection grid in June 2024. This way cheaper electricity
can flow from NTDC’s system to the KE system up to transmission capacity as and when needed.

Distribution is being carried out through eleven publicly owned Distribution Companies (DISCOs). These are
responsible for electric power distribution in their respective areas. The only exception is KE, which is a vertically
integrated utility and carries out all three main functions of generation, transmission, and distribution within
a 6500 km2 territory including Karachi and its adjoining areas.

Consumption

Electricity consumption (or demand) in Pakistan is distributed across four main areas: residential, commercial,
agricultural, and industrial. Pakistan's daily and annual consumption patterns are highly variable, with a
consistent increase in peak demand over the years and little to no increase in the base load. These features
make variable renewable energy sources (VRE) such as solar, wind, and hydro attractive for Pakistan as they
naturally complement each other.

End-Users

End users are connected through electricity meters with the DISCOs infrastructure to power their homes,
businesses, industries, Farms, and Government. These end users are further categorized based on their
consumption patterns (e.g., peak/off-peak hours), load profiles and tariff structures (e.g., residential, commercial,
industrial, agricultural), and metering arrangements (e.g., prepaid, postpaid, smart meters).

42,501 MW 3,384 MW 27,333 MW

NTDC’s Installed Capacity KE’s Installed Capacity Peak demand of Country
FY 2022 - 2023

129,030 GWhs 8,998 GWhs 16.45%

NTDC’s Total Generation KE’s Generation Fleet Transmission and Distribution
FY 2022 FY 2022 Losses
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 7

Overseeing Bodies

Federal Mediator Provincial

MOE CCOE (Cabinet CCI (Council of Provincial Energy

(Ministry of Energy) Committee on Energy) Common Interests) Departments

NEPRA NTDC
(System Regulator) (System Planner and Operator)

Generation Transmission Distribution

60 Fossil Fuel Plants 31,656 km of 132 kV lines
Lines
7 Nuclear Plants 941 Grid Stations of 132 kV
8,825 km of 500 kV (71 circuits)
22 Hydel Plants 2,267 Power Transformers
11,633 km of 220 kV (166 circuits)
14 Small Hydel (<30 MW) 58,042 Distribution Transformers
Grid Stations
12 Solar Plants 358,219 Feeders of 11 kV
19 grid stations of 500 kV
45 Wind Plants
50 grid stations of 220 kV
10 Bagasse Plants
Transformers

47 transformers of 500/220 kV
179 transformers of 220/132 kV

Share of electricity consumption - FY 2023

In Pakistan, a two island approach is followed in which the power sector is split into two subsystems:
NTDC and KE. Both sectors manage their own supply and demand which results in more expensive
dispatch in the KE system. This approach also fails to benefit from demand-curve superposition.
 Chapter 2:
Power Sector
Planning Process
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 9

The planning process in the power sector can be divided into two major categories: generation planning
(laid out in the IGCEP) and the transmission planning (laid out in the TSEP). The IGCEP is of at least 10 years,
prepared every year with rolling horizon, whereas the Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP) may be
prepared for one, three, five or ten years. The first IGCEP in the history of Pakistan was approved in 2021
whereas the first TSEP has come to light in 2024. Principally, both IGCEP and TSEP are required to be in place
to form an Integrated System Plan, that lays out the viability of any generation project. This year, IGCEP 2024
has come together with the TSEP but has not been infused into an Integrated System Plan (ISP) document.

Integrated
Generation Plan Transmission Plan System Plan

In early decades of post-independence, more emphasis was given to water resources management rather
than energy concerns. WAPDA was established in 1958 mainly for managing water resources to boost the
country's agricultural economy. Although various studies on power system planning were undertaken
afterwards to supplement the regular five-year medium-term plans of the Government, no energy policy
was formally announced by any government until 1994. It was only in 2005 that NTDC was mandated by the
grid code to prepare a comprehensive capacity expansion plan, the IGCEP, which it failed to produce for the
next 15 years. Power plants continued to be built on an ad-hoc and arbitrary basis, the disastrous economic
implications of which have culminated in the economic crisis that we live in today.

When the NTDC finally submitted its first plan to NEPRA in 2019 and 2020, they were found inadequate and
subsequently rejected. Only when in 2021 the World Bank made the disbursement of a $400 million loan
contingent on the approval of IGCEP, was it hastily approved by the regulator. The subsequent plan, however,
which was due in June next year, came more than three months late. Such institutional failures to deliver and
arbitrary delays are a routine occurrence in the power sector of Pakistan and have cost the country dearly.
While the grid code 2005 augmented by the latest approved grid code in 2023 also required NTDC to submit
the TSEP along with the IGCEP, only recently in 2024, we have seen both planning documents coming into
public together. Although the power sector planning is becoming continuous, now the challenge remains in
making the planning process credible, transparent, and accessible to the relevant stakeholders.
 EXILE
THEM!

Chapter 3:
Assumptions &
Methodology
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 11

Our goal in this study is to assess the credibility of the IGCEP prepared by NTDC in terms of reliability and
least cost criteria. To achieve this objective, we have developed a base case model that considers the same
assumptions and constraints as provided in the IGCEP 2024. The planning horizon in this study is considered
as 10 years as per the Grid Code 2023 — which stipulates a planning horizon of at least 10 years — under
section PC 2.1 c, as per which we have shown the results until the FY33. The IGCEP 2024, however, extends it
a year further and shows the results until the FY34. The base year is considered as Fiscal year 2024 (July 2023-
June 2024). Where any data is found missing or incomplete, we have referred to data available on NEPRA’s
website to fill such gaps. We have also taken additional assumptions where required to get equivalent results
as in the IGCEP 2024. Some of the key assumptions for our base case have been listed below for reference:

◊ Business as usual demand forecast has been considered for developing the base case which corresponds
with low rate of GDP growth.

◊ For candidate local coal (330 MW coal fired Steam at Thar), the fixed fuel cost component of 113.205 $/kW-
year and fuel price of 1.45 $/GJ has been considered respectively.

◊ For candidate local coal (660 MW coal fired Steam at Thar), the fixed fuel cost component of 107.72 $/kW-
year and fuel price of 1.70 $/GJ has been considered respectively.

◊ The lead time of four years for candidate local coal projects and a 2-year for wind and solar technologies
has been considered in the model.

◊ Only 1000 MW of wind can be added each year starting from July 2027 as candidate generation option.
Only 1300 MWp of solar can be added each year starting from July 2027 as candidate generation option.

◊ A yearly block of 100MW of a new/disruptive/nascent technology has been considered from 2028 onwards
until the end of study horizon. The cost parameters for the new technology have been added considering
an average price lower than the basket price of electricity.

◊ Existing projects located near the load center have been considered as “Must Run”, for summer months,
i.e., May to September up till year 2027.

For the committed Hydel, we have used reference power purchase prices as issued by NEPRA in the Reference
Power Purchase Prices for FY 2024 – 2025 dated June 14, 2024
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 12

RF-PRIED PLEXOS Modelling Process

Load Forecast

Based on projected GDP

growth rate of 3.5% in the
base case for a 10-year period,
whereas CAGR stands at 3.1%.

Feeding 300+ Generation

Options

Technical data such as capaciity,

min stable level, heat rates, ramp
rates etc. from existing, committed,
and candidate power is fed into
PLEXOS for analysis.

Hourly Load Profiles

Wind and Solar Profiles
NTDC provided detailed hourly profiles
Hourly solar and wind data
for 175,200 hours, greatly improving the
were fed into the model
model's accuracy and reliability.
for 8,760 hours of the year.
Separate data is entered
for utility-scale, distributed
generation, net metering,
and existing plants.

Contractual Obligations & Economic & Financial

Constraints Parameters

Constraints such as minimum energy Parameters such as build costs,

off take requirements, must run operations and maintenance costs,
statuses, and retirements are added economic life (e.g. 50 years for hydro
in the model in line with IGCEP 2024. and nuclear), fuel costs etc. are fed into
the model based on EIA projections.

Projects Optimized by PLEXOS

Considering all respective constraints,

assumptions, build costs, dispatch
capability, and financial parameters,
PLEXOS recommends technology
builds on a least-cost principle, year by
year.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 13

Data Availability and Acquisition Challenge Still Exists

The best approach in power sector modeling is using practical and realistic data, which helps the model
capture complex and rapidly changing ground conditions. The more accurate and practical data we procure
the more accurately we predict future demand, optimal resource allocation and dispatch, future transmission
and distribution planning, and prevent faults, losses, and blackouts.

Data plays a crucial role in energy planning, but its availability, accessibility and usability, is often compromised.
While some generation planning data can be found in the State of Industry Reports, tariff determinations,
and generation licenses, the formats are not easily readable or understandable. While conducting this study,
our major challenge has been data collection. Although we were provided load forecasting data by the NTDC,
cooperation from other entities has been limited. Furthermore, data available on NEPRA’s website is either
not complete for power generators or is not updated. For example, tariff determinations at the stage of
commercial operations start of recent coal-fired power plants are missing, and for nuclear no specific data is
available on NEPRA’s website or Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.

Particularly for hydel committed projects, whose cost details are not available in IGCEP 2024, various websites
were surfed to find relevant cost data and generation profiles. The ramp rates essential for increasing and
decreasing energy generation as per variations in demand are missing; the ramp rate fluctuation may impact
plant efficiency and indirectly the cost of generation, which is again missing in the document.

Pakistani citizens pay taxes for all their basic utilities, which helps the government in running the power sector;
they have the right to know where their taxes have been spent. Therefore, data transparency is indispensable
and its accessibility is crucial to ensure accountability, improving stakeholder participation, making informed
decisions for generating revenue, reducing risks, potential research and planning, and attracting foreign
investment in the power sector.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 14

Comparison of IGCEP & RF-PRIED Base Case

The figure below illustrates the differences between NTDC’s IGCEP and RF-PRIED’s base case, with the most
significant disparity being the total system cost claimed by NTDC. This discrepancy primarily arises from
the tariff assumptions for committed hydropower projects totaling approximately 10.47 GW. Notably, the
IGCEP lacks clear tariff assumptions for these committed projects, and it appears that NTDC has significantly
underestimated these tariffs. As a result, the cost projections do not accurately reflect the true financial
implications of the committed hydropower projects.

Base Case - Base Case -

IGCEP RF-PRIED

Optimum
Installed
Capacity Mix
by 2031

2033
13% (7.5 GW) Share of Wind
and Solar 13.4% (7.6 GW)
56.8 GW Total Installed
Capacity 56.8 GW

Cost Claimed: Actual Cost:

USD 37.8 Billion USD 60.1 Billion

*The total costs represent the NPV and are without inclusion of project costs of the committed projects. Since
NTDC has not mentioned the projects costs of committed projects, we have also excluded the same from
above, which is quite significant. A comprehensive comparison must take the cost of committed projects into
account. The total scenario-wise investments are listed separately for each scenario in the results section.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 15

3.1 Demand Forecasting

Demand forecasting is done by using PLEXOS and all the assumptions have been taken from IGCEP. While
determining the demand, NEECA’s energy efficiency targets have also been rationalized into the model. The
demand forecast also considers the non-AT&C losses gradually in the system.

Table: Demand forecasting (NTDC System)

Low growth Medium Growth High Growth

FY Load Peak Demand Load Peak Demand Load Peak Demand

(GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW)

2024 122,743 24,453 128,240 24,812 139,039 26,902

2025 126,330 25,090 131,012 25,579 142,901 27,767
2026 130,991 25,936 135,536 26,706 144,672 28,231
2027 137,285 27,099 141,361 28,112 148,013 29,007
2028 141,619 27,870 148,822 29,872 152,829 30,080
2029 145,809 28,819 154,340 31,059 159,156 31,461
2030 150,200 29,817 160,690 32,420 166,852 33,125
2031 152,579 30,422 167,363 33,853 175,887 35,072
2032 156,799 31,401 175,103 35,510 186,304 37,312
2033 159,357 32,197 183,343 37,374 197,995 40,004

Table: Demand forecasting (K-Electric System)

Low growth Medium Growth High Growth

FY Load Peak Demand Load Peak Demand Load Peak Demand

(GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (MW)

2024 19,975 4,114 21,874 4,168 21,897 4,172

2025 20,257 4,234 21,969 4,290 22,271 4,349
2026 20,813 4,347 22,256 4,404 22,334 4,420
2027 21,271 4,463 22,545 4,522 22,861 4,586
2028 21,714 4,571 22,877 4,631 22,948 4,646
2029 22,032 4,706 23,100 4,768 23,747 4,901
2030 22,377 4,833 23,363 4,896 24,148 5,060
2031 22,768 4,963 23,682 5,028 24,891 5,285
2032 23,323 5,084 24,167 5,150 25,315 5,395
2033 23,852 5,235 24,622 5,303 26,007 5,602

3.2 New Generation Options

For the base case scenario, to keep the set of assumptions similar to what is mentioned in the IGCEP, we have
kept the candidate generation options the same as given in the IGCEP. However, for the additional scenarios
such as unconstrained renewable energy addition, the number of solar and wind power plants along with
the new technologies such as Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) is increased and left for the PLEXOS to
optimize as required. The CAPEX and tariff assumptions for additional solar and wind power projects are kept
like the IGCEP and for the BESS, the CAPEX is estimated by consulting with independent consultants and
research-based institutes like Bloomberg New Energy Finance and IRENA.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 16

3.2.1. Candidate Generation Options

Keeping in line with the IGCEP, the following candidate options have been built in the NTDC and KE’s system,
for optimization by PLEXOS:

NTDC System

◊ Steam Turbine New Local Coal candidate (330 MW)

◊ Steam Turbine New Local Coal candidate (660 MW)

◊ Gas Turbine on RLNG (400 MW)

◊ Combined Cycle Gas Turbine on RLNG (1263 MW)

◊ Nuclear Steam PP on Uranium (1,200 MW)

◊ Wind Turbines 1000 MW each year starting from July 2027

◊ Utility-scale solar of 1300 MWp each year starting from 2027

KE System

◊ Steam Turbine New Local Coal candidate (330 MW)

◊ Steam Turbine New Local Coal candidate (660 MW)

◊ Wind Turbine (Block of ≤ 300 MW in July 2025 and Block of ≤ 100 MW each year till the end of study
horizon)

◊ Solar PV (Block of ≤ 300 MWp in July 2025 and Block of ≤ 200 MWp each year till the end of study horizon)

3.2.2. Committed projects

Following is the list of projects which have been entered into the base case model as committed projects.
When the projects are added in the model as committed, their cost is taken as ‘zero’, so that the modeling
software (PLEXOS) can select them irrespective of their need in the system or affordability.

A review of the provided list below shows that most of the committed projects are based on hydropower
technology.

Technology Project Name Capacity (MW) Expected Date

Balakot 300 Dec-2027

Chamfall 3.22 June-2024
Dasu 1 360 Mar-2027
Dasu 2 360 Apr-2027
Dasu 3 360 May-2027
Dasu 4 360 Oct-2027
Dasu 5 360 Nov-2027
Dasu 6 360 Dec-2027
Hydro
Diamer Bhasha U1 375 Jan-2029
Diamer Bhasha U2 375 Feb-2029
Diamer Bhasha U3 375 Apr-2029
Diamer Bhasha U4 375 May-2029
Diamer Bhasha U5 375 June-2029
Diamer Bhasha U6 375 Jul-2029
Diamer Bhasha U7 375 Aug-2029
Diamer Bhasha U8 375 Sep-2029
Diamer Bhasha U9 375 Oct-2029
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 17

Diamer Bhasha U10 375 Nov-2029

Diamer Bhasha U11 375 Jan-2030
Diamer Bhasha U12 375 Feb-2030
Gorkin Matiltan 84 Aug-2025
Jabori 10.2 May-2024
Jagran II 48 Dec-2024
Karora 11.8 Jul-2024
Kathai-II (U#1) 4 Jul-2026
Kathai-II (U#2) 4 Jul-2026
Koto 40.8 Jun-2024
Kurram Tangi 18 Jun-2024
Lawi 69 Dec-2024
Mohmand Dam U1 200 Dec-2026
Hydro
Mohmand Dam U2 200 Jan-2027
Mohmand Dam U3 200 Mar-2027
Mohmand Dam U4 200 Apr-2027
Nardagian 3.22 Dec-2025
Riali-II (U#1) 3.5 Jun-2025
Riali-II (U#2) 3.5 Jun-2025
Suki Kinari (U#1) 221 Aug-2024
Suki Kinari (U#2) 221 Sep-2024
Suki Kinari (U#3) 221 Oct-2024
Suki Kinari (U#4) 221 Nov-2024
Tarbela_Ext_5 (U#1) 510 Nov-2025
Tarbela_Ext_5 (U#2) 510 Dec-2025
Tarbela_Ext_5 (U#3) 510 Jan-2026
Gwadar 300 Dec-2027
Imported Coal
Jamshoro Coal 660 June-2024
CSP 30 Jan-2028
Bagasse Shahtaj 32 June-2024
TAY 30 Aug-2025
Nuclear C5 1200 July-2029
Import CASA 1000 Aug-2027
Trans-Atlantic 50 June-2028
Wind
Western 50 June-2028
Access Electric 10 Dec-2023
Access Solar 11.52 Dec-2023
Helios 50 Dec-2023
HNDS 50 Dec-2023
Manjhand 50 June-2028
Meridian 50 Jan-2024
Solar
Safe 10 Nov-2024
Siachen 100 June-2028
Zorlu 100 Oct-2024
PV_Comm_A 600 Jan-2027
PV_Comm_B 600 Apr-2027
PV_Comm_C 1200 Nov-2027
Net Metering 2107 Throughout study horizon
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 18

3.3. Fuel price indexation factors

For fuel prices modelling we have relied on the same mechanism as provided in the IGCEP. The IGCEP uses
the Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outlook 2023 for fuel price indexations over the
study horizon. The factors of indexations used are provided in the table below.

Table: Fuel Price Indexations

FY RFO RLNG/NG Imp. coal Uranium Thar coal Bagasse

2024 1 1 1 1 1 1
2025 0.992 0.797 0.998 1 0.99 1.02
2026 0.938 0.688 0.99 1 1.01 1.02
2027 0.936 0.602 0.976 1 0.94 1.04
2028 0.939 0.549 0.967 1 0.95 1.04
2029 0.939 0.528 0.955 1 0.95 1.061
2030 0.942 0.527 0.949 0.999 0.94 1.061
2031 0.946 0.534 0.95 0.999 0.95 1.082
2032 0.949 0.546 0.947 0.999 0.93 1.082
2033 0.953 0.561 0.932 0.999 0.7 1.104

3.4. Scenarios & Sensitivity Analysis

The IGCEP 2024 constitutes four scenarios on top of the base case. The base case has been modelled on a low-
demand growth scenario. The other two scenarios are based on the sensitivities of demand forecasting such
as medium growth and high demand growth. Two additional scenarios include the delay in the committed
Diamer Bhasha HPP and considering two candidate HPPs Azad Pattan and Kohala as committed in the
model.

In our study, we have replicated the base case as in the IGCEP 2024. In addition, we have developed following
scenarios and sensitivities in our model:

1. The base case

The base case scenario is designed to keep the same assumptions as used in the IGCEP 2024 base case
scenario so that the starting point of our study aligns with NTDC’s IGCEP. All the constraints such as must-run
obligations and committed projects are like the IGCEP base case, the only difference is the tariff assumptions
of committed projects. Since the tariff assumptions of committed projects are missing in the IGCEP, therefore
the tariff assumptions of such projects are considered as per the latest reference power purchase prices for
the year 2023-2024 as available on NEPRA’s website.

2. The True Load Scenario

In this scenario, we assess the impact of true load on the overall power sector generation planning. We do
so by incorporating the industrial load of captive power plants (CPPs) in the model, which is not part of the
base case. We estimate that by shifting the load that the industries are currently meeting through CPPs to
the national grid it will improve the system performance and utilization of existing capacity. Moreover, the
fuel (usually natural gas) provided to the industries at subsidized prices for operating their CPPs could also
be directed to alternate needs and be used efficiently given the depletion of local natural gas reserves. In this
scenario we shift the load that the industries are currently meeting through their captive power generators
— fueled by either diesel or gas — onto the national grid. According to well-informed sources and industrial
leaders, the estimated quantum of captive-based industrial load is around 5 to 7 Gigawatts. In our model, we
considered three estimates for captives based on pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic considerations.

Sensitivities:

◊ Pessimistic: 4000 MW (2000 MW in KE’s system and 2000 MW in NTDC’s system)

◊ Realistic: 7,000 MW (3500 MW in KE’s system and 3500 MW in NTDC’s system)

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 19

◊ Optimistic: 10,000 MW (5000 MW in KE’s system and 5000 MW in NTDC’s system)

3. Electric Vehicles Impact on Grid

In this scenario, we assess the impact of an increase in electricity demand on generation expansion planning,
owing to an increased quantum of electric vehicles (EVs) in the country’s transportation fleet over the study
horizon. Pakistan introduced its first national EV policy in 2019, which aimed at gradually increasing the
share of EVs in the country, as well as creating a local market for EV development. However, this government
direction, and public interest towards EVs, requires careful generation planning and enabling infrastructural
developments such as the erection of charging stations. It will further set the stage for deliberation on
required incentives to manage the load on the grid instead of straining the grid. An EVs’ charging station
typically ranges between 2kW— 43kW in the case of an AC charging station and 50kW—1 50kW and more in
the case of a DC charging station. The projections of EVs and their charging station loads are taken from the
technical brief “Scaling up Electric Mobility in Pakistan” by NEECA developed under the UNDP NDC Support
Programme. The sensitivities for the load of EV charging stations in Pakistan are as follows:

Sensitivities:

◊ Pessimistic Projection: 2000 MW by FY 2033

◊ Realistic Projection: 3500 MW by FY 2033

◊ Optimistic Projection: 4500 MW by FY 2033

The demand as mentioned above is factored in the cumulative load profile of Pakistan and then the impact
on utilization rates of the existing fleet and optimization of new generation mix is analyzed.

4. No Capacity Additions (NCA)

Since the installed power generation capacity is considerably higher than the utilized capacity due to which,
Pakistan is facing the issues of surplus power capacity and capacity payments, a unique scenario of “No
Capacity Additions (NCA)” is also simulated and analyzed. The objective of this scenario is to check whether
the installed generation capacity would be enough to meet the future demand if no further power plants
are added to the generation fleet. Another major assumption used in this scenario is solarization. One of the
most critical oversights in the IGCEP 2024 is the net metering projections. The IGCEP 2024 assumes 2,107MW
from net metering by FY2034. However, as of April 2024, the installed net metering capacity had already
exceeded 2,000MW, and this trend is expected to always accelerate due to rising electricity prices and solar
PV prices lowest in Pakistan. Additionally, the federal and provincial governments are aggressively promoting
solarization to maximize the use of indigenous and renewable sources. It is believed that one reason for the
decline in energy demand of the system is due to solarization whether net metered or non-net metered.
According to Bloomberg, Pakistan imported around 13,000MW of solar modules in the first six months of
2024 alone, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters. This massive import volume and the
growing trend of rooftop solar installations necessitate a prudent consideration of solarization’s impact on
demand side. Incorporating rooftop solar, both net-metered and non-metered, across all consumer types—
industrial, three-phase, and single-phase is crucial. In the NCA scenario, the committed generation capacity
until FY 2027 is considered along with the net metering quantum of 10GW(around 1000 MW each year). The
impact of net metering quantum is considered on the demand side.

5. Increased Electricity flow from NTDC to KE - Affordable Electricity for KE Consumers

In NTDC’s current approach, both dispatch and expansion planning for KE and NTDC systems is carried out
separately. A limited quantum of electricity — 1100 MW which has now been increased to 2,050 MW under
a new agreement with the NTDC — is allowed to flow from NTDC to the KE system. This approach results in
a cost discrepancy between the two systems. NTDC has a diverse energy generation pool comprising 64.4%
thermal power, 27.4% hydro, 4.2% renewables, and 4% nuclear energy, the overall generation basket rate is
thus lower than KE's. If the interconnection capacity between NTDC and KE is further increased in the future,
more affordable power will flow from the NTDC network to the KE’s network — as currently the per unit price
is higher in the KE system due to the dominance of thermal power generation in their network.

For sensitivity analysis, we considered different scenarios: increasing the supply to K-Electric from 2,050 MW
to 2,800 MW, 3,600 MW, and 4000 MW, respectively. The result of this analysis is explained in the Results
Section.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 20

Sensitivities:

◊ Supply to KE = 2800 MW

◊ Supply to KE = 3600 MW

◊ Supply to KE = 4000 MW

6. Collective impact of CPPs and EVs – Building Synergies

This scenario aims to see the impact of better utilization of the existing grid on long-term generation planning
by a) shifting the captive power plants on the national grid and b) incorporating EVs’ charging demand.
Considering the envisaged drop in the energy demand as outlined in the IGCEP 2024 and surplus generation
capacity, more benefits can be reaped by first utilizing the existing capacity. Doing this strategically, electricity
from variable renewables can be optimally utilized further by aligning EV charging with their peak generation
which may also reduce curtailments from the must-run plants. Overall, the synergy in increased energy
utilization could alleviate the financial burden of idle capacity, improve the efficiency, reliability, and flexibility
of the system, and increase the potential for renewable energy integration. It further paves the way for
sustainable development by reducing carbon footprint in the transportation sector, contributing to a cleaner
environment.

Sensitivities:

◊ Realistic only – 4000 MW captive load and 2000 MW EVs load by 2033

7. Collective impact of CPPs, EVs and enhanced electricity flow to KE – The Efficiency Trio

In continuation to building synergies, this scenario is designed to analyze the combined effect of captives, EVs
and enhanced electricity flow to the KE system – “The efficiency trio”. This integrated approach will not only
enable grid operators and utilities to increase grid flexibility, improve reliability, and optimize energy efficiency
but also create capacity for integrating more renewable energy sources. By harnessing the strengths of this
trio, the peak demand can be managed efficiently and achieve maximum efficiency in energy generation and
utilization.

Sensitivities:

◊ CPPs load of 4000MW (2000MW in the KE system and 2000MW in the NTDC System)

◊ Increase in demand by 2000 MW to facilitate EV charging

◊ Increase in transmission capacity (from NTDC to KE) of 4000 MW from 2050MW

8. Unconstrained VRE additions: The Greener Future

In the current IGCEP about 20GW of capacity expansion in the next 10 years is on a committed basis i.e., the
model has not been allowed to assess their optimization on the least cost basis. In our unconstrained RE
scenario, we are treating the committed hydro and nuclear projects as candidate generation options for the
software to optimize if needed in the system. With respect to solar and wind, their yearly addition constraints
have been removed. Their unlimited addition with a block size of 100MW has been allowed in the model for
optimization on a least cost basis.

Committed hydro projects (7.76 GW) and nuclear projects modeled as candidate generation options are as
follows:

◊ Balakot HPP (300 MW) as a candidate option from 1st December 2027

◊ Dasu (Units 1 to 6 total 2160 MW, each unit of 360 MW)

◊ Diamer Bhasha Dam (4500 MW)

◊ Mohmand Dam (800 MW, 4 units each of 200MW)

◊ C-5 (1200 MW) Nuclear as a candidate option in FY-30

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 21

9. Additional Cost of Diamer Bhasha Dam and CHASHNUPP-5 (C-5)

In the IGCEP 2024, a majority of power projects are classified as committed; however, the underlying
justifications and rationales for their inclusion remain largely unexplained. Critical details such as CAPEX, tariff
assumptions, and comprehensive cost evaluations are absent, raising concerns about whether these projects
meet the least-cost selection criteria. Among these committed projects, the Diamer Bhasha Dam (4,500 MW)
and CHASNUPP-5 (C-5, 1,200 MW) stand out due to their substantial capital costs. According to recent media
reports and reliable sources, the estimated cost for C-5 is approximately $5 billion, while the Diamer Bhasha
Dam is projected at $4.86 billion. Notably, IGCEP 2024 only accounts for their levelized tariffs, which appear to
be significantly underestimated.

To accurately reflect the true costs and implications of these projects, a scenario analysis was conducted. In
the first iteration, C-5 was treated as a candidate project with all other assumptions consistent with the base
case scenario. In the second iteration, Diamer Bhasha was evaluated as a candidate project. Finally, in the third
iteration, both Diamer Bhasha and C-5 were considered as candidate options to analyze cost differentials and
determine whether these projects would be optimized by PLEXOS. This approach aims to provide a clearer
understanding of the economic feasibility of these projects and whether they align with least-cost planning
principles, ensuring that the generation expansion strategy remains both financially sound and aligned with
policy goals.
 We have
a better
plan!
BLAH
BLAH
BLAH

Chapter 4:
The Study Outputs
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 23

4.1. Base Case

The base case scenario is built along the assumptions, constraints, and obligations as determined by the
IGCEP. In case of any missing data inputs in the IGCEP and non-provision of data from relevant energy sector
agencies on request, we have used the closest suitable assumptions. In the current IGCEP, the base case has
been developed on a demand forecast based on low GDP growth rate. Additionally, we see that the 99.95%
capacity which could have been added to the system based on least cost, is added as committed. As a result,
the model optimizes only 87 MW of hydel capacity. For solar and wind, we see that except for the already
committed capacity, no additional capacity is being optimized. For Hydropower, in addition to what has been
added as committed, 87.2 MW gets optimized by the model.

Key features

◊ The tariffs for both existing and candidate projects align with those in the NTDC IGCEP 2024, ensuring
consistency in cost assumptions across the board.

◊ Renewable energy projects totaling 640 MW within the K-Electric system are treated as committed
projects, as their Request for Proposals (RFPs) have been issued and are included in K-Electric's
approved Power Acquisition Program (PAP) for 2024.

◊ Total installed capacity reaches 56.8 GW with VRE share of 13 % and hydel share of 37%.

◊ The total system cost (NPV) in our analysis is estimated at $60.1 billion, excluding the capital costs of
committed projects. The required investments for these committed projects amount to approximately
$23.9 billion.

◊ In contrast, NTDC's projections indicate a total system cost of $38.1 billion, excluding committed
project costs. When these project costs are included, NTDC estimates the total system cost (NPV) to
be $63.31 billion, highlighting a potential discrepancy in cost evaluations between the analyses.

Capacity Addition and Investment Required

◊ New Capacity Built: 20.256 GW

◊ Total System Cost (NPV) = $60.1 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imported Coal

Capacity (MW) 5608 232 1200 10564.2 960
CAPEX ($ billion) 3.86 0.325 5 14.08 0.714

Total Investments required = $ 23.9 billion

Committed Projects (MW)

Local Cross New Yearly
FY Hydro Imp. Coal Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Coal Border Tech Addition

2024 72 660 0 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936

2025 357 0 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 0 100 1645.4 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 0 241 0 1200 100 0 2851
2031 360 0 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 0 232 5608 1000 1200 600 92 20,169

Inclusive of KE's committed projects and net-metering

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 24

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year

2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2028 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2
2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 0 0 0 82
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 0 0 0 87.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 25

4.2. Unconstrained VRE – The Green Future

In this scenario we evaluate the impact of treating committed projects as candidate generation options on
long-term generation expansion planning. It is critical to evaluate committed projects with full transparency
based on their costs, as about one third of our intended generation capacity by the end of 2033 is added in
the IGCEP 2024 as committed. In the current IGCEP about 20GW of capacity expansion in the next 10 years is
on committed basis i.e. the model has not been allowed to assess their optimization on the least cost basis.

Key features

The unconstrained scenario suggests that the share of variable renewable energy sources can be increased
if the hard constraints are removed from the model and committed projects are left open for optimization.
Three sensitivities on demand growth are performed in unconstrained VRE scenario i.e., business -as-usual
demand, medium demand and high demand.

4.2.1. Unconstrained VRE – Business as usual demand

◊ Total installed capacity reaches to 46.6 GW by 2033 with 6.2 GW VREs (13% VRE share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 13.6 GW (29% of total capacity) out
which 2.7GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 216 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost savings amount to $5.79 billion (Total system cost NPV $54.31 billion) as compared to the
Bas Case scenario.

4.2.2. Unconstrained VRE – Medium growth

◊ In this sensitivity, the total installed capacity reaches to 55.4 GW by 2033 with 14 GW VREs (25% VRE
share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 14.3 GW (25% of total capacity) out
which 2.7GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 956 MW is optimized by PLEXOS

◊ The total cost savings amount to $2 billion (Total system cost NPV $58 billion) as compared to the Bas
Case scenario.

4.2.3. Unconstrained VRE – High demand

◊ In this sensitivity, the total installed capacity reaches to 59.3 GW by 2033 with 15.56 GW VREs (26% VRE
share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 16.7 (28% of total capacity) GW out
which 2.7GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 1173 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total system cost (NPV) in this sensitivity is $61.7 billion and this is due to new capacity optimization
of 13.9 GW.

Capacity Optimized by PLEXOS for 10-year Horizon

◊ New Capacity Built: 10.26 GW

◊ Total System Cost (NPV) = $58 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imported Coal

Capacity (MW) 10836 1232 1200 3673.2 960
CAPEX ($ billion) 7.45 1.72 5 2.03 0.714

Total Investments required = $ 11.93 billion

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 26

Committed Projects (MW)

Cross New Yearly
FY Hydro Imp. Coal Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Border Tech Addition
2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936
2025 1020 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1790
2026 1617 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 2108
2027 8 0 0 265 0 0 0 0 273
2028 0 300 100 373 1000 0 100 30 1903
2029 0 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 336
2030 0 0 0 241 0 0 100 0 341
2031 0 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 355
2032 0 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 242
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 2717 960 232 3136 1000 0 600 92 8,737

Inclusive of KE's committed projects and net-metering

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 305 300 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 605
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2029 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2
2030 211 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 311
2031 0 0 0 1600 0 0 0 0 0 200 100 1900
2032 0 0 0 3600 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 3800
2033 740 0 0 2000 0 0 0 0 0 300 600 3640
Total 956.2 0 0 7200 0 0 0 0 0 500 1000 10261.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 27

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

4.3. No Capacity Additions

In the IGCEP 2024, the net metering projections are assumed to reach at 2107 MW by the year 2034 however,
as of April 2024, the installed net metering capacity had already exceeded 2,000MW, and this trend is
expected to always accelerate due to rising electricity prices and solar PV prices lowest in Pakistan. In the
sensitivity of the NCA, the committed generation capacity until FY 2027 is also considered along with the net
metering quantum of 10GW. The NCA scenarios suggest that no further capacity addition is required given
the increased rooftop solar additions along with the adequacy of the existing generation fleet. The results
show that the total system cost (NPV) is around 56.4 billion USD, and this increased system cost shows that
an additional 19 billion USD would be needed on the generation side for the projects that are committed until
FY 2027. Another important finding in this scenario is that with 10 GW of rooftop solar along with 4.7 GW of
committed VREs, Pakistan can successfully meet and even exceed the ARE Policy 2019 targets of having at
least a 30% share of renewables without making significant investments.

Key features:

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 44.7 GW by 2033 with 4.7 GW VREs (11 % VRE share), it is pertinent
to mention here that 10GW of rooftop solar is also considered in the demand side, with this quantum
the VRE share becomes 27%.

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 15.2 GW (34% of total capacity) and this
increase only includes the committed quantum of hydel till FY 2027.

◊ The total cost savings amount to $3.7 billion (Total system cost NPV $56.4 billion) as compared to the
Base Case scenario.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 28

Committed Projects (MW)

Imp. Local Cross New Yearly
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Coal Coal Border Tech Addition
2024 62 660 0 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 926
2025 1020 0 0 0 530 0 0 0 0 1550
2026 1617 0 0 132 88 0 0 0 30 1867
2027 1880 0 0 0 1200 0 0 0 0 3080
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 4579 600 0 132 1990 0 0 0 62 7423

Inclusive of KE's committed projects and net-metering

Capacity Mix 2033

Share of solar & Wind includes 10 GW rooftop solar as well

4.4. True Load Scenario

For the captive’s load to be connected to the grid, we have assumed that 40% of the captive load would be
connected to the grid by FY 2027, 30% by FY 2029, and 30% by FY 2030. For the growth rate of the captive
load, the GDP rate of 3.5 % is considered, and the projected captive load is calculated accordingly for the entire
planning horizon. Moreover, the model is also given the option to optimize BESS. As a result, in addition to the
committed capacity, the NTDC system only optimizes a micro hydro project to meet the increased load on
the system implying better utilization of the existing fleet. Whereas the KE system needs additional capacity
to serve increased industrial load which could be met by the energy mix comprising 2770 MW of solar and
wind and 1320 MW of local coal along with BESS of 350 MW with up to 08 hours of backup. It is pertinent
to mention that the KE system needs the coal power plant to meet the base load requirements, given the
global sanctions on local coal along with other socio-environmental factors, the option of local coal remains
no longer feasible. To meet the base load demand, the interconnection capacity of the KE system with NTDC
must be enhanced so that cheaper electricity can flow from the NTDC system to the KE.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 29

Key features:

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 60 GW by 2033 with 10.4 GW VREs (17% VRE share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 21.2 GW (35%) out of which 10.4GW is
committed quantum and only 87.2MW is optimized by PLEXOS..

◊ The total cost in this case is $64.2 billion owing to new capacity additions and increased utilization of
existing fleet (see annexures for utilization rates).

◊ The utilization rates of existing fleet of both KE and NTDC (RLNG and imported coal) have been increased
as shown below:

 RLNG = 78%
 Imported coal = 6.1%

Optimum Capacity Addition and Investment Required

◊ New Capacity Built: 24.6 GW

◊ Total System Cost (NPV) = $64.2 USD

Local
Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal BESS
Coal
Capacity (MW) 8258 352 1200 10564.2 960 350 1320
CAPEX ($ billion) 5.7 0.5 5 14.08 0.714 0.84 2.17

Total Investments required = $ 29 billion

Committed Projects (MW)

Cross New Yearly
FY Hydro Imp. Coal Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Border Tech Addition
2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936
2025 357 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 100 1645.42 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 241 0 1200 100 0 2851
2031 360 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 232 5608 1000 1200 600 92 20,169
Inclusive of KE's committed projects and Net metering
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 30

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE
Imp. Cross New KE KE Capacity
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind Addition
Coal PV
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 300
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 900 0 900
2028 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 0 1000
2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 305 0 0 310.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 915 0 0 915
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 0 0 0 82
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 450 120 570
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 1220 2650 120 4077.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 31

4.5. Electric Vehicles (EVs) Impact on Grid

The quantum of the load of EV’s charging stations is proportionated into KE’s system and NTDC’s system i.e.,
the 2000 MW load of EV’s charging stations proportionated as 400 MW into KE’s system by 2033 and 1600
MW into NTDC’s system by 2033. The results of the pessimistic sensitivity i.e., 2000 MW are shown below:

Key features:

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 57.5 GW by 2033 with 8.4 GW VREs (15 % VRE share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 21.1 GW (36% of total capacity) out of
which 10.4GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 5.2 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost in this case is $62 billion owing to new capacity additions and increased utilization of
existing fleet (see annexures for utilization rates).

◊ The utilization rates of existing fleet of NTDC (RLNG) have been increased by 10% while utilization rates
of KE’s fleet (RLNG) reduced by 7% because of the addition of 1000MW wind.

Capacity Optimized by PLEXOS for 10-year Horizon

◊ New Capacity Built: 21.56 GW

◊ Total System Cost (NPV) = $62 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal Local Coal

Capacity (MW) 5608 1232 1200 10482.2 960 330
CAPEX ($ billion) 3.8 0.5 5 13.91 0.714 0.54

Total Investments required = $ 24.4 billion

Committed Projects (MW)

Imp. Cross New Yearly

FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Coal Border Tech Addition

2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936

2025 357 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 100 1645.42 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 241 0 1200 100 0 2851
2031 360 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 232 5608 1000 1200 600 92 20,169

Inclusive of KE's committed projects and Net metering

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 32

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200
2029 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 205.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 305 0 0 387
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 305 0 1000 1,392.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 33

4.6. Collective impact of CPPs and EVs – Building Synergies

In this scenario we evaluate the collective impact of shifting industries on the main grid and increased
demand from erection of charging stations for EVs. For this we taken realistic assumption of shifting 4000
MW load of CPPs and 2000MW EVs load on the main grid. As a result, in addition to the committed capacity,
only a 5.2 MW hydro project is optimized in the NTDC system and 4.3 GW of energy mix comprising 990 MW
local coal, 1600 MW wind and 1700 MW solar along with 01 unit of BESS (430 MW with up to 9 hours backup)
are optimized in the KE system.

It is worth noting that KE system needs additional thermal power of 990 MW to meet the base load
requirements, however given the global sanctions of coal financing along with its environmental impacts,
coal is no longer a feasible option. This entails enhancement of tie line capacity from NTDC to KE as already
mentioned in 4.6 section that will enable the flow of cheaper power from NTDC system to KE’s system.

Key features:

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 61.1 GW by 2033 with 10.75 GW VREs (17.5 % VRE share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 21.2 GW (34% of total capacity) out of
which 10.4GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 87.2 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost in this case is $64.5 billion owing to new capacity additions and increased utilization of
existing fleet (see annexures for utilization rates).

◊ The utilization rates of existing fleet of both KE and NTDC (RLNG and imported coal) have been increased
as shown below:

 RLNG = 90%
 Imported coal = 7.1%

Capacity Optimized by PLEXOS for 10-year Horizon

◊ New Capacity Built: 24.47 GW

◊ Total System Cost (NPV) = $64.5 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal BESS Local Coal

Capacity (MW) 7308 1832 1200 10564.2 960 430 990
CAPEX ($ billion) 5.03 2.57 5 14.08 0.714 1.16 1.63

Total Investments required = $ 30.17 billion

Committed Projects (MW)

Imp. Cross New
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse Yearly Addition
Coal Border Tech
2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936
2025 357 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 100 1645.42 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 241 0 1200 100 0 2851
2031 360 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 232 5608 1000 1200 600 92 20,169
Inclusive of KE's committed projects and Net metering
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 34

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 200 500
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 400
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 400
2029 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 607 200 200 1012.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 305 200 200 705
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 400
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 400
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 0 200 200 482
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 912 1700 1600 4299.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 35

4.7. Enhanced Electricity Flow from NTDC to KE

In this scenario, we assess the impact on generation planning for the KE system by increasing the flow of
electricity from NTDC’s system to the KE system from 2050MW to 4000MW. The potential benefit of increased
reliance on NTDC’s system could be in the form of lesser utilization of expensive generation fleets in the KE
system. As a result, the PLEXOS model does not optimize any generation option in the KE system for the next
10 years, and only a small hydel project of 5.2 capacity in the NTDC’s system. Other than this, the majority
of capacity additions are only those which have been treated as committed in the model. This also brings
attention to the surplus capacity available in the main grid — sufficient for both the NTDC’s and KE’s systems
— in the provision of affordable electricity to the end consumers. Another major observation in this scenario
is that the need for a base load option i.e., local coal additions would no longer be needed even if the captive
load along with the EV’s load increases in the KE system because of the allowance of cheaper power to KE
system via enhanced tie line capacity.

It is important to note that for the enhancement of tie-lines, the timelines have also been considered i.e., first
augmentation in FY 27, the other one in FY 30 to make the scenario more realistic.

Key features:

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 56.7 GW by 2033 with 7.6 GW VREs (13 % VRE share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 21.1 GW (37 % of total capacity) out of
which 10.4 GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 5.2 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost in this case is $60 billion as compared to the base case scenario.

Capacity Optimized by PLEXOS for 10-year Horizon

◊ New Capacity Built: 20.175 GW

◊ Total System Cost = $60 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal BESS

Capacity (MW) 5608 232 1200 10482.2 960 0

CAPEX ($ billion) 3.86 0.325 5 13.91 0.714 0

Total Investments required = $ 23.8 billion

Committed Projects (MW)

Imp. Cross New Yearly
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Coal Border Tech Addition
2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936
2025 357 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 100 1645.42 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 241 0 1200 100 0 2851
2031 360 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 232 5608 1000 1200 600 92 20,169

Inclusive of KE's committed projects and Net metering

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 36

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2029 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 37

4.8. Collective impact of CPPs, EVs and Enhanced Electricity Flow to KE – The
Efficiency Trio
In this scenario, we evaluate the collective impact of shifting industries on the main grid, increased demand
from the erection of charging stations for EVs and enhanced electricity flow to KE from the main NTDC system.
For this, we assessed the realistic case only in which we have used the following three main assumptions:
Realistic only – Captives load = 4000MW, EVs load = 2000MW, flow to KE = 4000MW

As a result, in addition to the committed capacity, the model optimizes 176 MW of hydropower in the NTDC
system and 1400 MW of wind power in the KE system. The renewable energy optimization by PLEXOS
strengthens the need for an affordable yet sustainable energy system while ensuring the maximum utilization
of the existing system. The results of this scenario also back the findings of scenario 4.7 (Collective impact of
CPPs and EVs) in which additional thermal power generation is optimized into KE’s system as there were
no other options for the base load. In this scenario, since the tie-line capacity from NTDC to KE has been
enhanced, there is no need for additional thermal power generation in KE’s system.

Key features:

◊ The total installed capacity will reach 58.1 GW by 2033 with 9.06 GW VREs (15 % VRE share).

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 21.1 GW (36% of total capacity) out of
which 10.4GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 5.2 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost in this case is $63.4 billion owing to new capacity additions and increased utilization of
existing fleet (see annexures for utilization rates).

◊ The utilization rates of existing fleet of both KE and NTDC (RLNG and imported coal) have been increased
as shown below:

 RLNG = Utilization increased by 2.3 times (118.3 TWh generation as compared to 51.2
TWh in the base case)

 Imported coal = Utilization increased by 10%

Capacity Optimized by PLEXOS for 10-year Horizon

◊ New Capacity Built: 21.57 GW

◊ Total system cost (NPV) = $63.4 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal BESS Local Coal

Capacity (MW) 5608 1632 1200 10482.2 960 0 0
CAPEX ($ billion) 3.85 2.28 5 13.91 0.714 0 0

Total Investments required = $ 25.67 billion

Committed Projects (MW)

Imp. Cross New Yearly
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Coal Border Tech Addition
2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936
2025 357 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 100 1645.42 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 241 0 1200 100 0 2851
2031 360 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 232 5608 1000 1200 600 92 20,169
Inclusive of KE's committed projects and Net metering
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 38

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year

2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2029 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 205.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1400 1405.2

Yearly Capacity Additions (MW)

Capacity Mix 2025 Capacity Mix 2033

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 39

4.9. Additional Cost of Diamer Bhasha Dam and CHASHNUPP-5 (C-5)

In this scenario, we assess the impact of incorporating the full costs of the Diamer Bhasha Dam (4,500 MW)
and C-5 (1,200 MW) projects, beyond the levelized tariffs currently considered in the IGCEP 2024, where these
projects are listed as committed. The current approach does not fully reflect the actual costs that will be
incurred if these power projects come online, such as capital expenditures and increased capacity payments
during the debt servicing periods.

Key features (with C-5 as a candidate option):

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 56.2 GW by 2033 with 8.2 GW VREs (15 % VRE share) and C-5 is not
picked by PLEXOS.

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 21.2 GW (37% of total capacity) out of
which 10.4GW is committed quantum (until FY 2027) and only 87.2 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost savings in this case amount to $5.52 billion (Project cost and running costs) as compared
to the base case.

Key features (with Diamer Bhasha Dam as a candidate option):

◊ The total installed capacity reaches 52.9 GW by 2033 with 8.2 GW VREs (15 % VRE share) and Diamer
Bhasha is not picked by PLEXOS.

◊ The share of hydel power generation increases from 10.75 GW to 16.7 GW (31% of total capacity) out of
which 5.9 GW is committed quantum and only 87.2 MW is optimized by PLEXOS.

◊ The total cost savings in this case amount to $7.6 billion (Project cost and running costs) as compared
to the base case.

In the first iteration, C-5 is evaluated as a candidate project, and results indicate that PLEXOS does not
optimize C-5 due to its higher costs. This leads to a reduction in the total system cost (NPV) by 0.52 billion USD
compared to the base case scenario where C-5 is committed. It is pertinent to mention that if this reduction
does not include the project cost, and if the project cost is also included, the total reduction in total system
cost amounts to $5.52 billion. Additionally, the share of renewable energy sources increases to 15%.

In the second iteration, Diamer Bhasha is treated as a candidate project, and similarly, PLEXOS does not
optimize it due to higher costs. The analysis shows that the total system cost (NPV) is reduced by 2.74 billion
USD compared to the base case scenario where Diamer Bhasha is committed. It is pertinent to mention that
if this reduction does not include the project cost, and if the project cost is also included, the total reduction
in total system cost amounts up to $7.6 billion with an increase in the renewable energy share to 16%.

These findings raise critical questions for the agencies concerned about whether these projects should be
classified as committed, given that they do not meet the least-cost criteria and may displace more affordable
energy sources. True costs of such projects must be transparently included in generation capacity expansion
plans to ensure alignment with the least-cost criteria and policies promoting a higher share of renewable
energy, especially since Pakistan is a signatory to the Paris Agreement.

4.9.1. Without C-5

◊ New Capacity Built: 19.6 GW

◊ Total system cost (NPV) = $59.5 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal BESS Local Coal

Capacity (MW) 5608 832 0 10564.2 960 0 0
CAPEX ($ billion) 3.85 1.165 0 14.08 0.714 0 0

Total Investments required = $ 19.8 billion

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 40

Committed Projects (MW)

Imp. Cross New Yearly

FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Bagasse
Coal Border Tech Addition
2024 72 660 0 171.52 0 0 0 32 936
2025 357 0 0 770 0 0 0 0 1127
2026 818 0 132 329 0 0 0 30 1309
2027 1299 0 0 1465 0 0 0 0 2764
2028 1591 300 100 1645.42 1000 0 100 30 4766
2029 4310 0 0 236 0 0 100 0 4646
2030 1310 0 0 241 0 0 100 0 1651
2031 360 0 0 255 0 0 100 0 715
2032 360 0 0 142 0 0 100 0 602
2033 0 0 0 353 0 0 100 0 453
Total 10477 960 232 5608 1000 0 600 92 18969
Inclusive of KE's committed projects and Net metering

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2029 87.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 187.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 600 687.2

4.9.2. Without Diamer Bhasha Dam

◊ New Capacity Built: 19.6 GW

◊ Total system cost (NPV) = $57.36 billion

Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Imp. Coal BESS Local Coal

Capacity (MW) 5608 832 0 5977 960 0 0
CAPEX ($ billion) 3.85 1.165 0 9.215 0.714 0 0

Total Investments required = $ 14.9 billion

Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 41

Optimized Candidate Projects (MW)

KE KE Capacity
Imp. Cross New KE KE
FY Hydro Wind Solar Nuclear Local Solar Addition
Coal Border Tech Hydro Wind
Coal PV Per Year
2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2029 87.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 187.2
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2031 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
2033 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
Total 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 600 687.2
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 42

IGCEP
PRIED RF

Chapter 5:
Generation Sequence
& Recommendations
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 43

Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario

4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.9

Solar 0 7700 0 2650 0 1700 0 0

Wind 0 1000 0 120 1000 1600 1400 1000
Local
0 330 0 1320 330 990 0 0
Coal

Hydro 87.2 956.2 0 87.2 87.2 87.2 5.2 87.2 87.2

BESS 0 0 0 350 0 430 0 0

The generation sequence analysis indicates that hydropower projects, particularly Batdara (5.2 MW) and
Uzghor (82 MW), are optimized across all scenarios except Scenario 4.6, which involves the enhanced flow
of power to KE. According to IGCEP 2024, the concerned agencies for Batdara and Uzghor are NTDC and KE
respectively, with both projects optimized within their respective regions. Notably, since Uzghor is integrated
into KE’s system, applicable wheeling charges for power evacuation must be factored into the overall cost
analysis. A thorough assessment is necessary to determine if the inclusion of these wheeling charges affects
the economic feasibility of these projects for the responsible agencies. Local coal power plants are optimized
within KE’s system in scenarios where significant electric vehicle (EV) and captive loads are included on the
demand side. To serve these captive loads, a reliable base load option is required, with current options limited
to local coal or the conversion of existing imported coal plants to local coal within KE’s system. However,
due to global sanctions on coal financing and socio-environmental concerns, coal is no longer a sustainable
option for KE.

Moreover, for captive users, particularly export-oriented industries, compliance with the Carbon Border
Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and heightened accountability on Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions make
coal an impractical choice, especially given KE’s already fossil fuel-dominated energy mix. Considering
these constraints, it is imperative to explore cleaner and more reliable energy alternatives for KE, such as
enhancing the tie-line capacity between NTDC and KE or integrating renewable energy sources like solar
and wind with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). It is important to highlight that while an agreement
has been established between KE and NTDC to supply power to the KE system based on the tie-line capacity,
there is a critical need for a separate agreement ensuring a firm dedicated to power supply to KE. This would
always guarantee a consistent and reliable power flow TO KE, rather than relying on pro-rata-based power
flow arrangements, which may not adequately meet the demand or operational stability required for KE's
system. Establishing such an agreement would enhance predictability and ensure the continuous availability
of power to KE, aligning with the long-term energy security goals for the region.

The declining cost of BESS, expected to decrease further, makes it a compelling option for peak shaving,
mitigating the intermittency of renewables, and providing ancillary services. Notably, PLEXOS also optimizes
BESS in KE’s system when captive and EV loads are incorporated, underscoring its viability. The scenarios also
show a significant increase in the share of renewable energy sources, particularly when large projects like
CHASNUPP-5 (C-5) and Diamer Bhasha Dam are treated as candidates rather than committed options. These
projects were not selected by PLEXOS due to their high costs and reduced demand, indicating that such
expensive commitments would impose an undue burden on consumers.

New capacity additions should strictly adhere to the least-cost criteria, especially as the government
encourages captives to connect with the national grid and KE’s system. In a business-as-usual scenario, it is
advisable to pursue a no-capacity-addition approach, considering Pakistan’s substantial imports of solar PV
modules—13 GW in the first half of 2024 alone. Current large-scale solar projects in Pakistan have an average
power purchase price of PKR 37/kWh, while rooftop solar can deliver electricity to nearby loads at PKR 27/kWh
due to the absence of additional system charges. Rooftop solar provides a stable price per kWh without the
need for sovereign guarantees or tariff indexations, which simplifies financial obligations for the government.
Given the underutilization of power plants and burdensome capacity payments, future investments should
prioritize modernizing the distribution grid to better accommodate renewable energy, rather than expanding
generation capacity. Grid modernization offers the dual benefits of improved theft prevention, reduced losses,
and increased renewable energy absorption capabilities. This approach would enable Pakistan to meet and
even exceed the Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019 target of achieving a 30% renewable
energy share without substantial new investments. To address peak demand, particularly at night, encouraging
the deployment of battery energy storage systems among consumers will be crucial. Furthermore, retiring
power plants can be retained on a take-and-pay basis, providing ancillary services and improving system
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 44

stability by converting generators into synchronous condensers.

The primary objective of this study extends beyond presenting multiple scenarios; it emphasizes the critical
importance of considering a range of scenarios and sensitivities in power generation capacity expansion
planning. The final scenario selection must integrate all macroeconomic factors to ensure robust decision-
making. Moving forward, we aim to integrate academic institutions into our generation planning processes,
employing advanced decision-making methodologies from operations research, such as Multi-Criteria
Decision Making (MCDM) and Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FFMEA). This interdisciplinary approach
will harness expertise from academia, research institutes, think tanks, and policy planning departments,
ensuring that our strategies are comprehensive, cutting-edge, and aligned with the latest developments in the
power sector. This collaborative effort will strengthen our strategic decision-making capabilities, enhancing
the resilience and sustainability of Pakistan’s energy future.

In summary, we strongly recommend the following to the relevant planning agencies, policymakers and the
ministry:

◊ Evaluate Committed Projects on Merit:

Treat committed projects as candidate options and evaluate their feasibility to save $5.79 billion in system
costs and increase VRE share to 13% by 2033 (up to 26% in high-growth scenarios).

◊ Avoid Capacity Additions Until 2027:

Given the rise in net metering, rapid solarization and declining solar PV prices, avoid capacity additions
beyond committed projects until 2027, potentially saving $3.7 billion.

◊ Incentivize & Facilitate Transfer of Captive Power Plant (CPP) Load to National Grid:

Shift CPP load to the national grid to improve utilization rates and optimize generation capacity without
significant new additions. However, such initiative would require augmentation and rehabilitation of the
transmission and distribution system. It is pertinent to mention that this will not only ensure the reliable
and un-interrupted supply of power to CPPs but would also help avoid out of merit operations i.e., running
costly fossil-fuel based power plants amid network constraints along with maximum RE absorption.

◊ Expand NTDC-KE Transmission Capacity:

Increase tie-line transmission capacity between NTDC and KE based on a firm agreement to reduce the
need for new generation in KE and decrease reliance on costly thermal power plants.

◊ Avoid High-Cost Projects:

Do not forcibly add high-cost projects like Diamer Bhasha Dam and CHASNUPP-5, as they are not
optimized and will lead to unnecessary costs ($7.6 billion for Diamer and $5.52 billion for Chashma).

◊ Promote Rooftop Solar:

Encourage rooftop solar installations to meet demand without adding large-scale generation, benefiting
from falling PV prices.

◊ Optimize Grid for Renewables:

Focus on grid modernization to reduce losses, prevent theft, and integrate renewable energy, avoiding
unnecessary generation capacity expansion.

◊ Leverage BESS for Flexibility:

Utilize the declining cost of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to manage peak demand,
intermittent renewables, and provide ancillary services.

◊ Encourage EV and CPP Integration:

Strategically shift captive power plant loads and integrate EV charging demand to better utilize the
existing generation fleet.
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 45

APPENDIX (Utilization Rates)

Scenario 4.1 – Utilization Rates (%)

Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
CASA 0 0 0 0 42 42 42 42 42 42
FPCL 54.11 3.94 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Gul Ahmed 51.52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SNPC 1 92 92 92 92 92 92 64.77 64.55 66.91 69.31
SNPC 2 92 92 92 92 92 92 67.35 67.19 69.28 71.18
Tapal 46.21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 05 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
BQPS 2 20.71 0.88 1.22 1.75 2.38 3.22 4.18 4.19 6.33 9.64
BQPS 3 Unit 01 67.68 13.2 14.09 17.9 39.14 24.09 28.52 49.63 51.43 39.93
BQPS 3 Unit 02 86 39.9 39.32 42.59 27.48 48 48.66 26.59 31.13 49.54
KGTPS 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.14
KPC 0.68 0 0 0.01 0.04 0.1 0.13 0.1 0.26 0.42
SGTPS 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Engro 77.3 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Foundation 79.37 84.71 84.94 84.92 84.96 84.94 0 0.66 0.97 0.45
Guddu II 78.38 83.7 84.78 84.96 84.96 85 84.96 84.94 31.59 0.82
Guddu V 84.57 84.93 85 85 85 85 84.99 84.99 84.99 6.9
Liberty 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 85 0 0 0 0 0
Uch 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.95 2.96 2.96 85 0 0
Uch II 50 78.78 80.1 81.39 50 50.64 50 50 50 50
AES Lalpir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AES Pakgen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AGL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Atlas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 127MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hub N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUBCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro I U1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro II U4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kohinoor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberty Tech 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I U1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I U2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I U3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh II U4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nishat C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nishat P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saba 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C2 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
C3 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C4 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 46

C5 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90
K2 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
K3 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
China HUBCO 81.69 80.99 82.47 83.67 75.05 50 50 50 50 50
Port Qasim 61.81 75.19 77.64 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sahiwal Coal 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Engro Thar 85 85 85 85 85 84.98 21.5 8.71 84.91 84.99
Lucky 10.56 34.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thal Nova 85 85 85 85 85 84.96 21.39 8.98 84.96 84.96
Thar I SSRL 84.96 84.98 84.98 84.99 84.34 84.36 0 0.16 0.56 84.76
Thar TEL 85 85 85 85 85 85 84.93 84.96 84.96 85
Altern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balloki 0.48 2.28 3.97 1.94 0.93 0.59 0 0 0 0
Bhikki 0 0.16 0.5 0.38 0.04 0 0 0 0 0
Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FKPCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Halmore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haveli 5.32 11.25 39.89 86.64 3.55 1.55 0 0 0 0
KAPCO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nandipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Orient 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rousch 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saif 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sapphire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trimmu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gwadar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.19
Jamshoro Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CSP 0 0 0 0 43.77 43.35 0 0 0 0.2
Shahtaj 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.6 44.52 44.47 0 0 0 0.2
TAY 0 0 45.62 45.6 44.57 44.37 0 0 0 0.2
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 47

Scenario 4.4 – Utilization Rates (%)

Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
CASA 0 0 0 0 42 42 42 42 42 42
FPCL 54.23 3.68 0 0.08 0.94 0 0 0.53 0.56 1.39
Gul Ahmed 51.98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SNPC 1 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92
SNPC 2 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92
Tapal 45.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 06 0 0 0 0 1.88 0.45 0.9 1.32 1.42 0.75
BQPS 2 20.62 0.8 0.88 8.01 34.97 23.58 27.04 29.77 29.97 26.27
BQPS 3 Unit 01 67.48 27.45 35.6 33.16 70.75 66.83 66.16 64.97 70.77 67.23
BQPS 3 Unit 02 86.31 25.51 9.89 50.8 63.66 48.26 54.47 53.76 54 50.08
KGTPS 0 0 0 0.25 5.63 1.98 2.76 3.43 3.94 3.2
KPC 0.61 0.01 0 1.01 12.08 4.15 6.13 8.26 8.57 6.53
SGTPS 0 0 0 0 3.12 1.14 1.8 2.49 2.47 1.92
New Coal 330 0 0 0 0 0 85 85 85 85 85
New Coal 660 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 78.25 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Foundation 79.3 84.81 84.95 85 85 85 85 85 85 84.98
Guddu II 78.66 83.93 84.83 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Guddu V 84.65 84.94 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Liberty 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 85 0 0 0 0 0
Uch 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.95 2.96 2.96 85 0 0
Uch II 50 78.99 79.89 84.58 83.74 84.92 53.47 50 50 82.73
AES Lalpir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AES Pakgen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AGL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Atlas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 127MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hub N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUBCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro I U1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro II U4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kohinoor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberty Tech 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U1
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U2
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U3
Muzaffargarh II
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U4
Nishat C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nishat P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saba 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C2 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
C3 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 48

C4 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C5 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90
K2 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
K3 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
China HUBCO 81.67 80.89 82.53 84.91 84.87 84.46 50 50 72.65 84.52
Port Qasim 61.82 76.33 78.22 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sahiwal Coal 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Engro Thar 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Lucky 10.73 32.51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.69
Thal Nova 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Thar I SSRL 84.96 84.99 84.98 85 85 85 84.99 84.99 84.99 85
Thar TEL 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Altern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balloki 0.41 2.18 3.65 42.66 3.38 1.67 0 0.02 0.22 0.05
Bhikki 0 0.14 0.46 0.77 0.88 0.55 0 0 0 0
Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FKPCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Halmore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haveli 5.05 11.25 37.16 90 87.48 56.75 0.17 0.7 1.29 0.86
KAPCO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nandipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Orient 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rousch 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saif 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sapphire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trimmu 0 0 0 0.04 0.08 0 0 0 0 0
Gwadar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.87
Jamshoro Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Bagasse 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CSP 0 0 0 0 44.5 44.5 44.45 21.67 44.42 44.47
Shahtaj 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.57 22.28 45.57 45.59
TAY 0 0 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.54 22.27 45.56 45.59
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 49

Scenario 4.5 – Utilization Rates (%)

Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
CASA 0 0 0 0 41.89 42 42 42 42 42
FPCL 53.79 2.51 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 0.01 0 0.01
Gul Ahmed 53.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SNPC 1 92 92 92 92 92 92 65.81 64.01 63.32 63.58
SNPC 2 92 92 92 92 92 92 67.62 67.21 65.5 64.29
Tapal 48.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 06 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
BQPS 2 19.32 0.5 1.07 1.39 2.18 2.27 2.23 1.95 1.83 2.06
BQPS 3 Unit 01 86.44 10.88 13.07 18.67 40.43 23.17 22.92 32.8 47.3 31.22
BQPS 3 Unit 02 68.24 41.3 41.83 47.45 32.12 50.03 50.53 36.28 19.26 34.48
KGTPS 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
KPC 0.14 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
SGTPS 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
New Coal 330 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Coal 660 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 77.19 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Foundation 79.41 84.97 84.97 84.96 85 84.97 0.01 0.48 1.01 0.64
Guddu II 77.83 83.86 84.96 84.99 85 85 84.97 84.97 61.44 0.69
Guddu V 84.75 84.97 85 85 85 85 85 84.99 85 31.5
Liberty 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 148.75 0 0 0 0 0
Uch 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.95 2.96 2.96 99.17 0 0
Uch II 50 78.66 80.05 82.11 79.55 82.71 50 50 50 50
AES Lalpir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AES Pakgen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AGL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Atlas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 127MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hub N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUBCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro I U1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro II U4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kohinoor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberty Tech 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U1
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U2
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U3
Muzaffargarh II
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U4
Nishat C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nishat P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saba 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C2 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
C3 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C4 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 50

C5 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90
K2 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
K3 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
China HUBCO 81.65 80.84 82.8 84.27 81.61 55.98 50 50 50 50
Port Qasim 62.89 75.38 77.94 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sahiwal Coal 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Engro Thar 85 85 85 85 85 84.98 41.44 27.34 84.96 85
Lucky 10.26 38.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01
Thal Nova 85 85 85 85 85 85 41.04 27.14 84.96 84.98
Thar I SSRL 84.99 84.99 84.98 85 84.84 84.81 0 0.23 0.59 84.91
Thar TEL 85 85 85 85 85 85 84.97 84.97 84.99 85
Altern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balloki 0.42 1.67 3.7 11.91 0.86 0.53 0 0 0 0
Bhikki 0 0.18 0.54 0.49 0.05 0 0 0 0 0
Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FKPCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Halmore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haveli 4.55 10.29 44.91 90 4.35 1.09 0 0 0 0
KAPCO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nandipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Orient 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rousch 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saif 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sapphire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trimmu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gwadar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.37
Jamshoro Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Tech Y1 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40
New Tech Y2 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 40
New Tech Y3 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40
New Tech Y4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 40
New Tech Y5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40
New Tech Y6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
CSP 0 0 0 0 44.09 43.81 0 0 0.01 0.25
Shahtaj 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.6 45.02 44.8 0 0.01 0.01 0.32
TAY 0 0 45.72 45.6 44.88 44.92 0 0 0.01 0.32
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 51

Scenario 4.6 – Utilization Rates (%)

Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
CASA 0 0 0 0 42 42 42 42 42 42
FPCL 54.23 3.68 0.04 0.14 1.02 0 0.07 0.73 0.7 1.37
Gul Ahmed 51.98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SNPC 1 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92
SNPC 2 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92
Tapal 45.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 06 0 0 0 0 1.94 0.54 1.01 1.4 1.5 0.72
BQPS 2 20.62 0.8 1.2 9.2 36 24.61 28.06 30.78 30.99 25.53
BQPS 3 Unit 01 67.5 27.45 36.59 35.14 71.66 67.73 66.99 68.34 71.53 66.45
BQPS 3 Unit 02 86.29 25.51 11.44 51.94 64.5 49.4 55.53 57.55 55.04 49.06
KGTPS 0 0 0 0.38 6.78 2.11 2.84 3.72 4.2 3.11
KPC 0.61 0.01 0 1.32 12.62 4.46 6.74 9 9.39 6.03
SGTPS 0 0 0 0.03 3.42 1.19 1.9 2.6 2.67 1.76
New Coal 330 0 0 0 0 0 85 85 85 85 85
New Coal 660 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 78.25 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Foundation 79.3 84.81 84.95 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Guddu II 78.66 83.93 84.83 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Guddu V 84.65 84.94 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Liberty 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 85 0 0 0 0 0
Uch 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.95 2.96 2.96 85 0 0
Uch II 50 78.99 80.2 84.77 84.48 84.98 84.88 72.06 65.21 83.44
AES Lalpir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AES Pakgen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AGL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Atlas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 127MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hub N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUBCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro I U1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro II U4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kohinoor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberty Tech 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U1
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U2
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U3
Muzaffargarh II
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U4
Nishat C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nishat P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saba 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C2 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
C3 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 52

C4 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C5 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90
K2 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
K3 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
China HUBCO 81.67 80.89 82.79 84.93 84.91 84.73 55.57 50 84.71 84.82
Port Qasim 61.82 76.33 78.33 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sahiwal Coal 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Engro Thar 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Lucky 10.73 32.51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.09
Thal Nova 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Thar I SSRL 84.96 84.99 84.98 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Thar TEL 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Altern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balloki 0.41 2.18 4.09 55.23 16.77 2.14 0 0.07 0.38 0.14
Bhikki 0 0.14 0.56 0.96 1.07 0.7 0 0 0 0
Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FKPCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Halmore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haveli 5.05 11.25 41.07 90 90 72.23 0.27 0.87 1.59 1.12
KAPCO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nandipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Orient 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rousch 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saif 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sapphire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trimmu 0 0 0.01 0.09 0.14 0.02 0 0 0 0
CSP 0 0 0 0 44.5 44.5 44.47 44.47 44.47 44.5
Shahtaj 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.59 45.59 45.59 45.62
TAY 0 0 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.6 45.59 45.59 45.62
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 53

Scenario 4.8 – Utilization Rates (%)

Fiscal Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
CASA 0 0 0 0 41.89 42 42 42 42 42
FPCL 53.79 2.51 0 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gul Ahmed 53.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SNPC 1 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92
SNPC 2 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92
Tapal 48.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BQPS 1 Unit 06 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.09 0 0 0
BQPS 2 19.32 0.5 0.75 12.13 4.04 3.35 25.83 0.02 0.29 0.73
BQPS 3 Unit 01 86.71 10.88 11.04 45.04 40.21 28.6 55.19 13.15 26.37 19.19
BQPS 3 Unit 02 67.98 41.3 41.07 63.99 46.56 53.81 71.68 12.01 4.71 18.51
KGTPS 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.95 0 0 0
KPC 0.14 0 0 0.32 0.02 0.04 4.43 0 0 0.01
SGTPS 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.26 0 0 0
Engro 77.19 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Foundation 79.41 84.97 84.97 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Guddu II 77.83 83.86 84.95 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Guddu V 84.75 84.97 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Liberty 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 148.75 0 0 0 0 0
Uch 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.95 2.96 2.96 99.17 0 0
Uch II 50 78.66 79.86 84.43 84.95 84.98 84.97 84.97 84.95 84.95
AES Lalpir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AES Pakgen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AGL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Atlas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Engro 127MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hub N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HUBCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro I U1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jamshoro II U4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kohinoor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liberty Tech 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U1
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U2
Muzaffargarh I
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U3
Muzaffargarh II
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U4
Nishat C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nishat P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saba 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C2 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
C3 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C4 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
C5 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 54

K2 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
K3 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
China HUBCO 81.65 80.84 82.51 84.97 84.99 84.95 84.93 84.92 84.97 84.98
Port Qasim 62.89 75.38 77.66 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Sahiwal Coal 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Engro Thar 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Lucky 10.26 38.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84.76
Thal Nova 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Thar I SSRL 84.99 84.99 84.98 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Thar TEL 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Altern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Balloki 0.42 1.67 3.29 48 69.75 39.51 0.02 0.68 20.97 1.22
Bhikki 0 0.18 0.47 0.69 1.68 0.84 0 0.26 0.63 0.33
Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FKPCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Halmore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haveli 4.55 10.29 41.18 90 90 90 31.02 74.43 90 72.89
KAPCO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nandipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Orient 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rousch 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Saif 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sapphire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trimmu 0 0 0 0 0.53 0.23 0 0 0.01 0
Gwadar 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 85
Jamshoro Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CSP 0 0 0 0 44.5 44.5 44.48 44.48 44.5 44.5
Shahtaj 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.6 45.6 45.62 45.62
TAY 0 0 45.72 45.62 45.62 45.62 45.6 45.6 45.62 45.62
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 55

Glossary

Base load:

Base load/demand represents the consistent and continuous demand of electricity over an extended period
such as a day, a month or a year. Base demand is linked with the essential services that occur continuously
such as streetlights, refrigeration and some industries.

Candidate Power Plants:

These are potential projects that can be considered as an option in the future generation capacity expansion.
These power plants are included in future capacity expansion models as possible additions, depending on
the system's needs, economic viability, policy support, or market conditions. These plants serve as options
for future capacity, and their inclusion depends on various scenarios or uncertainties, such as future demand
growth, policy shifts, or technology changes.

Captive power plants:

Captive power plants (CPPs) refer to small-scale power generation facilities that are set up by industries or
businesses to meet their own electricity needs, rather than relying entirely on the national grid. These plants
help industries avoid power outages and reduce costs, especially in areas where the grid supply is unreliable
or expensive.

Capacity factor:

Capacity factor is a term used in the context of power plants to describe the ratio of actual generation over a
specified time interval to the maximum possible generation if the plant were operating at full capacity. It is
calculated as the ratio of actual power output to the maximum power output.

Committed Power Plants:

These are projects that have already been planned, approved, or are under construction with a high degree
of certainty that they will be operational within the specified planning horizon. In other words, these projects
have received the necessary approvals, financing, and other required permits, and construction may have
already begun.

Fixed Operations & Maintenance (FO&M) costs:

Expressed in USD per kilo-watt-year, FO&M costs refers to the expenses associated with ongoing operations
and maintenance of a power plant or an energy storage facility that remain constant irrespective of the output
of a power plant or an energy storage facility.

IGCEP:

Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan refers to the power generation planning which involves strategy
for producing electricity to meet the demand of consumers. IGCEP includes determination of optimum mix of
power generation sources that can meet the electricity demand based on least cost. In Pakistan, the System
Operator (National Transmission & Despatch Company) is mandated to prepare the IGCEP every year with a
ten-year rolling horizon.

Net Present Value (NPV):

NPV is a financial metric used to evaluate the profitability and viability of future investments in power
generation infrastructure, such as building new power plants or upgrading existing facilities. NPV calculates
the difference between the present value of cash inflows (e.g., revenues from selling electricity) and the present
value of cash outflows (e.g., initial capital investment, operating and maintenance costs) over a specified time
horizon.

Peak demand:

Peak demand refers to the instance when electricity demand is maximum. It represents the highest level of
electricity consumption that occurs during the periods of high activity such as turning on an air conditioner
Powering Pakistan's Future: A Plexos Based Study 56

during heat wave, during a hot summer day

Peaking plants:

Refers to thermal power plants that are operated to meet the short duration demand spikes (peak demand) in
a system. These power plants are usually HSD/RFO based power plants having fast ramp rates but significantly
higher operating costs.

Scope 2 emissions:

Represents indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from purchased electricity generation by an
organization. These GHG emissions occur outside of the organization’s direct control but are linked with the
organization’s electricity consumption.

Scope 3 emissions:

Include all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that arise throughout an organization’s value chain,
including activities such as procurement, transportation, waste disposal, and employee commuting. These
emissions are not directly owned or controlled by the organization but are associated with its operations and
activities.

Total cost:

Total cost of generation refers to the sum of generation costs (fuel costs, variable O&M costs) and fixed costs
(FO&M costs).

Variable Operations & Maintenance (VO&M) cost:

Expressed in USD per Mega-Watthour, VO&M refers to the costs associated with ongoing operations and
maintenance of a power plant or an energy storage system. The span of these costs varies and depends upon
the nature of operations and the sort of maintenance that is required. Typically, VO&M costs include fuel costs,
labor costs, lubricants costs and repairs & overhauling etc.
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