Sunrun's Investor Insights
Sunrun's Investor Insights
Presentation
August 2024
Safe harbor & forward looking statements
This communication contains forward-looking statements related to Sunrun (the “Company”) within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of
1933, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, statements related to: the Company’s financial and operating guidance and expectations; the Company’s business plan,
trajectory, expectations, market leadership, competitive advantages, operational and financial results and metrics (and the assumptions related to the
calculation of such metrics); the Company’s momentum in its business strategies including its ESG efforts, expectations regarding market share, total
addressable market, customer value proposition, market penetration, financing activities, financing capacity, product mix, and ability to manage cash flow
and liquidity; the growth of the solar industry; the Company’s financing activities and expectations to refinance, amend, and/or extend any financing
facilities; trends or potential trends within the solar industry, our business, customer base, and market; the Company’s ability to derive value from the
anticipated benefits of partnerships, new technologies, and pilot programs; anticipated demand, market acceptance, and market adoption of the Company’s
offerings, including new products, services, and technologies; the Company’s strategy to be a storage-first company; the ability to increase margins based
on a shift in product focus; expectations regarding the growth of home electrification, electric vehicles, virtual power plants, and distributed energy
resources; the Company’s ability to manage suppliers, inventory, and workforce; supply chains and regulatory impacts affecting supply chains; the
Company’s leadership team and talent development; the legislative and regulatory environment of the solar industry and the potential impacts of proposed,
amended, and newly adopted legislation and regulation on the solar industry and our business; the ongoing expectations regarding the Company’s storage
and energy services businesses and anticipated emissions reductions due to utilization of the Company’s solar systems; and factors outside of the
Company’s control such as macroeconomic trends, bank failures, public health emergencies, natural disasters, acts of war, terrorism, geopolitical conflict, or
armed conflict / invasion, and the impacts of climate change. These statements are not guarantees of future performance; they reflect the Company’s
current views with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and estimates and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and
other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from expectations or results projected or implied by
forward-looking statements. The risks and uncertainties that could cause the Company’s results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements include: the Company’s continued ability to manage costs and compete effectively; the availability of additional financing on
acceptable terms; worldwide economic conditions, including slow or negative growth rates and inflation; volatile or rising interest rates; changes in policies
and regulations, including net metering, interconnection limits, and fixed fees, or caps and licensing restrictions and the impact of these changes on the
solar industry and our business; the Company’s ability to attract and retain the Company’s business partners; supply chain risks and associated costs;
realizing the anticipated benefits of past or future investments, partnerships, strategic transactions, or acquisitions, and integrating those acquisitions; the
Company’s leadership team and ability to attract and retain key employees; changes in the retail prices of traditional utility generated electricity; the
availability of rebates, tax credits and other incentives; the availability of solar panels, batteries, and other components and raw materials; the Company’s
business plan and the Company’s ability to effectively manage the Company’s growth and labor constraints; the Company’s ability to meet the covenants in
the Company’s investment funds and debt facilities; factors impacting the home electrification and solar industry generally, and such other risks and
uncertainties identified in the reports that we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time. All forward-looking statements used
herein are based on information available to us as of the date hereof, and we assume no obligation to update publicly these forward-looking statements for
any reason, except as required by law. All guidance information contained in this presentation was provided on August 6, 2024 in the 2Q 2024 earnings
release. The company assumes no obligation to update such guidance and the guidance is effective only as of August 6, 2024, not the date of this
presentation.
Sunrun is OLD WAY
powering a Centralized control, single
points of failure, expensive,
polluting, limited consumer
customer-led engagement in energy
revolution to
clean, affordable
and locally-
generated
energy. NEW WAY
A network of decentralized,
decarbonized, democratized,
Investor Presentation 3
Sunrun Overview Our Compelling Value Proposition
Sunrun is powering a customer-led revolution to
VALUE TO ➔ The majority of customers save 5-45% in the first
clean, affordable and locally-generated energy, and year.(1) We have delivered more than $1.3 billion in
CUSTOMERS
doing it at massive scale and rapid pace. savings for our customers since 2007.(2)
See Appendix for Glossary of Terms. Customers, Networked Solar Energy Capacity, Networked Storage Capacity and Annual Recurring Revenue is rounded and as of June 30, 2024.
(1) First year savings is based on 3 months trailing data as of June 30, 2023 for Solar-only. Actual savings may vary by customer.
(2) For all Customers through December 31, 2023.
(3) Based on Sunrun's estimates and United States Environmental Protection Agency's Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator as of December 31, 2023. Does not include Vivint Solar.
(4) Interstate Renewable Energy Council’s (IREC) National Solar Jobs Census 2022.
Investor Presentation 4
Massive & underpenetrated
opportunity
Even assuming a 16% average annual industry growth rate for
the next 10-years leads to ~18% penetration of U.S. houses.
Our strong value proposition supports a much greater number.
4.5m
0.2m
% Penetration of 88m
Addressable Homes (1)
0.3% ~5% ~18%
(1) Today’s housing stock estimate is based on the U.S. Census 2021 American Community Survey by State using occupied
single-unit housing using average state occupancy estimates. Number of homes with solar is based on EIA Form 861M
Residential PV Customers (February 2024). Estimated 2032 market penetration assumes housing units grow at 0.7% (Census
data). Sunrun internal estimates for 2023 and beyond.
(2) State penetration data uses EIA Form 861M Residential PV Customers (through February 2024) and housing stock uses the US
Census 2021 American Community Survey by State using occupied single-unit housing using average state occupancy
estimates.
Investor Presentation 5
Sunrun is the #1 residential market leader
Operating scale and strong
network effects provide A disciplined strategy
significant competitive and long track record
advantages
of growth has resulted
in a leading market
share position(1)
With approximately 15% market
share across the entire residential
solar market, and 55% market
share(2) of subscriptions (‘TPO’ or
solar leases & PPAs)
0.5%
Investor Presentation 6
Utility pricing is increasing and reliability is declining. Solar and
storage technology is improving and becoming lower cost.
➔ US Utilities requested $18 billion in rate hikes last year, the third straight year of Retail Electricity Price Increases Over
record requests. For the 12 months through May 2024, the price of electricity The Past Two Years(6)
nationwide has risen at nearly double the rate of consumer prices overall.(1)
➔ In December 2023, CPUC approved PG&E’s rate increase of 19.6%(2) in
California, effective January 1, 2024.
➔ In 2023, the major U.S. utilities spent over $160 billion in capital investments,
exceeding depreciation expense by 2.5x.(3)
➔ Yet, people are increasingly facing outages from wildfires, hurricanes and major
storms. The average annual number of weather-related power outages has
increased by almost 80% over the last decade.(4)
➔ More than 70% of America’s transmission lines and large power transformers
are at least 25 years old, and utilities will need to spend an exorbitant $2.2
trillion on infrastructure upgrades during the next 20 years in order to keep our
system up and running. These costs will ultimately be passed to consumers.
➔ With the expected capex trends, significant increases are likely even if
wholesale prices fall.(5)
Cost of Utility Energy Has Been Increasing(7) Utility Spending Accelerates Trend(8)
Investor Presentation 7
Solar and battery costs have declined
The costs of solar modules
and batteries have declined Cost of solar modules -92%
Cost of batteries -89%
significantly over the last ten
years and market research
predicts that these trends will
continue.(1)(2)
Market researchers forecast the cost of installed solar panels will continue to
decline long-term by 34% while the cost of batteries declines 64% over the
next 10 years.(2)
(1) Historic solar costs: Data prior to 2020 uses Bloomberg New Energy Finance Survey Multicrystalline Silicon Module Overall Average Spot
Price; Starting in 2020, data source is PV Infolink Standard Monocrystalline Silicon Module Price from Bloomberg; Historic battery cost estimates
according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance Annual Battery Survey (November 2023).
(2) Projected Cost of Panels and Batteries: Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2019.
Investor Presentation 8
The grid is increasingly
unreliable and battery
storage is a solution
From devastating wildfires and forced outages in California to
hurricanes and major storms across the East Coast, people are
facing more outages every year.
In August 2020, nearly 14 million people across the East Coast lost
power in Hurricane Isaias.
Investor Presentation 9
Sunrun is the trusted provider
Sunrun’s Vision
to enable the transition to ➔ Sunrun aims to become the preferred clean
energy provider to power customers’ lives.
clean energy We will integrate solar, battery storage,
electrification and distributed power plant
offerings into a smart solution for each home
and community.
➔ Full home electrification enables
decarbonization and increases the need for a
service provider. More fuel switching results
in larger systems, which have high
incremental returns to Sunrun.
2 Batteries
4 Smart Circuits
7 Smart thermostat
8 Induction cooktop
9 Smart bulbs
10 Smart plugs
Investor Presentation 10
Electric vehicle adoption
increases energy needs &
enhances the value of our
offering
➔ Electric vehicle energy needs expected to grow at an 18% CAGR as EVs
reach >70% of new vehicle sales.(1)
➔ More than 80% of EV owners say they would consider installing solar
panels at their homes, or already have them.(2)
➔ Most EV owners do more than 80% of their charging at home and need ~3
kW additional solar capacity.(3)(4)
➔ ~1.2 million electric vehicles were sold in the US in 2023, up 46% from
2022.(5)
➔ In May 2021, Sunrun partnered with Ford to serve as the preferred installer
of Ford Intelligent Backup Power for the Ford F-150 Lighting. Sunrun
offers the installation of the 80-amp Ford Charge Station Pro and the Home
Integration System, along with providing options for solar and storage
systems.
➔ Customers will need to equip their home with the 80-amp Ford Charge
Station Pro and Home Integration System to unlock bidirectional power
flow and future energy management solutions. The Home Integration
System—designed and developed together with Ford—can be purchased
exclusively through Sunrun.
(1) Wood Mackenzie “Electrification Impact on North America’s Electricity Demand” report published June 2022.
(2) Green Car Reports, August 2015. Electric Car Drivers Tell Ford We'll Never Go Back To Gasoline.
(3) Clean Technica, December 2019. EV & Rooftop Solar Ownership Report.
(4) Energy.gov, Batteries Charging And Electric Vehicles.
(5) Cox Automotive Electric Vehicle Sales Report (January 2024).
Investor Presentation 11
The Sunrun network can deliver distributed power plants
to transition to a decentralized power grid
➔ Home solar and batteries are more flexible and efficient than traditional centralized infrastructure. Utilities spend
more than $130 billion per year in capital investments and we believe $13 billion could be replaced by distributed
resources.(2)
➔ Sunrun can provide valuable grid services from our fleet of networked solar and storage systems, mitigating the
need for utilities to invest in additional infrastructure, driving benefits for all users of the grid, while also providing
incremental recurring revenue opportunities for Sunrun and incremental value to our customers for participating in
these programs.
➔ Sunrun has now installed more than 116,000 battery systems representing almost 1.8 GWhrs of Networked
Storage Capacity.
Distributed Provides clean, cost-effective peaking California Load Duration Curve Highlights
Power Plants capacity. Opportunity(1)
The traditional energy system is built to accommodate peak
capacity, which is reached only a tiny fraction of the year.
Virtual Avoids substation overhauls by
Distribution dropping excess load when needed
Capacity locally.
14 GWs of system
capacity is used less
Virtual Provides generation and reliability in than 5% of the time.
Transmission congested areas where new transmission
Capacity lines are difficult to build.
Investor Presentation 12
Leading customer acquisition
capabilities
Home
Marketing
Investor Presentation 13
Strong customer value Typical Sunrun Solar Service
proposition across the Agreement Characteristics(2)
Customer value propositions include utility bill ➔ Estimated Annual Solar Production: ~9,935 KWhrs (~1,332
KWhrs per KW per year)
savings, sustainability and peace of mind along
➔ Annual escalator: average of 2.5% with a range of 0% to 3.5%
with battery backup power and energy control with
➔ Contract Duration: typically 25 years
our storage product.
➔ Solar Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) or Lease
➔ Production Guarantee & Warranty
SAVINGS
➔ All Service Included
The majority of customers save 5% to 45%
in the first year(1)
Average Savings By Region For Solar Offering(3)
SUSTAINABILITY
Protect our planet
BACKUP
Protection against blackouts
ENERGY CONTROL
Use your energy when it’s most valuable
➔ Initial pilot completed with initial “early look” offer; initial results indicated likely
Renewals at end of initial subscription term ~$3,000 to ~$4,500 per customer realization exceeding values currently embedded in our GEA metric today
Repowering systems with new equipment to meet ~$5,000 to ~$15,000 per ➔ Optimizing offers for customers to consider upgrading systems to meet
growing energy needs of home customer increased energy needs at time of renewal or earlier
Installing batteries on existing customers to provide ➔ Over 1,000 orders so far through 2Q 2024 and orders are growing
~$3,000+ per customer
energy resiliency rapidly.
➔ Over a dozen operating distributed power plant programs across the
country
Grid services (distributed power plants) ~$2,000 or more per customer
➔ Largest distributed power plant operating in CA; launched offering with
Tesla in Texas and more to follow
Home electrification offerings, such as electric
➔ Thousands of orders for advanced electric vehicle charging
vehicle charging infrastructure $100 to $1,000+ per customer
infrastructure, including Ford Charge Station Pro
Ultimate customer value should significantly exceed initial contracted Net Subscriber Values
Investor Presentation 15
Post-contract customer values & renewal assumptions
embedded in metrics may be conservative
➔ Advantaged position compared to competitors: The
marginal cost of delivering energy during the renewal period
will likely be lower than a new system (whether installed by Contracts are written to typically renew annually after the
us or a competitor). Further, units of electricity do not initial contract term at 90% of the prevailing utility rate.
become obsolete, thus it is unlikely customers will feel Renewal values in metrics assume customers renew at a
compelled to upgrade to the “next version.” discount to the rate in effect at the end of the initial contract.
➔ No cross-selling / upselling / repowering assumed: We
have not included any other intangible benefits associated
with the customer relationship such as expanded systems,
batteries, or ancillary services such as electric vehicle
charging systems. With increased electrification (including
electric vehicles), it is likely consumers will want more
electricity, not less, and Sunrun will be in a
cost-advantaged position to provide this option.
➔ Remaining asset value beyond renewal assumption:
Sunrun assumes only 5-years of renewals following a
25-year contract, or a 30-year total customer relationship,
despite our solar assets’ useful lives extending 35 years or
more, as determined by independent engineers.
➔ Contracts auto-renew at a discount to utility rates,
which may escalate much faster: The renewal portion of
our reported metrics assumes that 100% of Subscribers
renew at 90% of the contractual PPA rate in effect at the
end of the initial contract term. In reality, customer
contracts are written to typically automatically renew at a
rate equal to 90% of the prevailing utility rate. This means
that, assuming utility rates escalate at a faster rate than our
typical contract escalators, approximately ~50% of our
customers could not renew and Sunrun would still
effectively realize the renewal value presented in our
reported metric.(1) See Appendix for Glossary of Terms.
(1) Assumes starting discount to utility of 20% with a 4% annual escalation of utility prices compared to our portfolio
average of 2% for Sunrun customers.
Investor Presentation 16
First product in ecosystem is an integrated home battery,
inverter and distributed power plant software system
electrification www.LunarEnergy.com
at scale 17
Sunrun is Since 2007, Sunrun’s systems have prevented
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions totaling
PLATFORM TECHNOLOGY
Sunrun leads the industry with advanced solar system
design, monitoring, and customer engagement tools.
Sunrun is investing in advanced energy service
capabilities.
Moat increasing with growing customer engagement in
energy selection, advanced regulatory constructs (such
as time-variable pricing), and energy storage integration.
(1) Cumulative Research and Development Expenses from 2015 through 2Q2024.
Investor Presentation 19
Sunrun is led by seasoned professionals
with extensive industry experience
Investor Presentation 20
Measuring
Value Creation
21
Nearly two decade ➔ 984,000+ CUSTOMERS(3)
operating history ➔ Networked Solar Energy Capacity of 7,058 MWs(4)
delivering consistent ➔
➔
14% y/y growth in Networked Solar Energy Capacity(5)
Networked Storage Capacity of 1.8 Gigawatt hours(6)
growth and value
creation
Systems Perform
Sunrun provides performance guarantee
for peace of mind
Investor Presentation 22
Q2 Net Subscriber Value was $12,394, with additional ITC
adder value expected
➔ 24,984 Subscriber Additions with Net Subscriber Value of $12,394 using a 6% discount rate, resulting in Total Value
Generated of $310 million in Q2.
➔ These figures include the benefits of the low-income and energy communities ITC adders but do not include the Domestic
Content ITC adder.
➔ We present metrics using a 6% discount rate to enable ease of comparison across periods, in addition to providing a
sensitivity table. We currently see an asset-level cost of capital of approximately 7.5%. Pro-forma for a 7.5% discount
rate, Subscriber Value was $44,291, leading to an adjusted Net Subscriber Value of $7,075 and Total Value Generated of
$177 million.
$49,610 $37,216
Subscriber Value Creation Cost Upfront
Installation costs Current capital costs are ~7.5% for
“full stack” debt raised against the
PV6%
$3,569 assets we originated in the quarter.
Renewal Upfront This reflects observed debt capital
per S&M
PV6% costs for senior debt and subordinated
subscriber debt and is calculated as follows:
(O&M costs)
Upfront 4.51% Average 7-yr treasury rate
G&A during Q2
+2.05% Senior debt credit spread
PV6% = 6.56% Senior debt rate
Customer payments Upfront +0.98% Impact on average when
(Platform Services Margin) incorporating subordinated
PV6% $46,041 debt as part of capital stack
per = 7.5% Weighted average
(O&M costs)
subscriber $12,394
Net Subscriber Value
PV6%
Tax equity $7,075
$3,569 renewal
Net Subscriber
Upfront Value @ 7.5%
State rebates & prepayments
$8,825 contracted $2,419 renewal
Renewal
net of O&M
(6% discount rate) Future Cash Flows
Upfront Cash
Value of Contracted
Proceeds from Senior Margin
Post-Tax Equity and
O&M Cash Flows and Subordinated Debt
(6% discount Monetization
rate)
Installation
S&M
Proceeds Proceeds from Tax G&A
from Tax Equity, Equity, Upfront (-) Platform Margin
Upfront Rebates, Rebates, Prepayments
Prepayments
Investor Presentation 24
Net Earning Assets increased to $5.7 billion
➔ We have ~$15.7 billion in Gross Earning Assets, which is our measure of the
present value of cash flows from customers over time.
➔ Projected cash flow from customers plus cash, less total debt and pass-through
obligations represents $5.7 billion in present value, which we call Net Earning
Assets. Net Earning Assets includes both recourse and non-recourse debt and
total cash.
➔ Net Earning Assets excludes other assets, such as Inventory ($353m as of 2Q24)
and a portion of systems currently under construction but not yet recognized as
deployed and therefore not yet reflected in Gross Earning Assets.
➔ Existing assets are financed with fixed-rate debt or floating-rate debt where the
vast majority of the base rate exposure is hedged with interest rate swaps. As
such, adjusting the discount rate applied to the entire fleet of existing assets with
current financing costs applicable to new asset originations is not appropriate.
Net derivative assets (total derivative assets less total derivative liabilities) totaled
$259 million at June 30, 2024 for $3.6 billion in notional amount of interest rate
swaps.
Gross Earning Assets Contracted Period $9,437 $10,064 $10,802 $11,545 $12,051
Gross Earning Assets Renewal Period $3,122 $3,235 $3,364 $3,492 $3,641
(-) Recourse Debt & Convertible Senior Notes ($946) ($912) ($932) ($1,050) ($1,043)
(+) Pro-forma debt adj. for debt within project equity funds(1) $868 $857 $852 $844 $905
(1) Because estimated cash distributions to our project equity partners are deducted from Gross Earning Assets, a proportional share of the corresponding project level non-recourse debt is deducted from Net
Earning Assets, as such debt would be serviced from cash flows already excluded from Gross Earning Assets. See Appendix for glossary of terms and accompanying notes.
25
Three 10% ITC adders enhance unit economics
➔ These ITC adders will make solar more affordable and accessible to a broader consumer population.
➔ We have operationalized receipt and accounting for the energy communities & low-income adders.
➔ A meaningful mix of our deployments in the coming quarters should qualify for the domestic content adder, at
which point we will begin including the value in our reported metrics.
➔ In Q2, the weighted average ITC was approximately 35%, reflecting approximately half of Subscriber
Additions qualifying for a 10% adder on average.
➔ We expect our weighted average ITC to be around 45% in 2025.
➔ 1% of increased weighted average ITC realization equates to approximately $60 million increase in finance
proceeds.
26
We are enjoying tailwinds from improving product mix
27
Cash Generation guidance of $350 to $600 million in 2025
Cash Generation represents the change in Sunrun’s total unrestricted cash balance, less any increases in recourse debt or
issuance of equity (or plus any decreases in repayment of recourse debt or stock repurchases). Cash Generation provides credit
for non-recourse asset-level financing and tax credit monetization used to fund growth. Cash Generation is provided in the model
posted to Sunrun’s investor website and is derived entirely from our GAAP financial statements.
Key Sensitivities
Finance proceeds flow through to Cash Generation and can be moderated by customer
pricing and sales compensation levels, especially over the long-term
Typical timing-related considerations assumed in Cash Generation:
➔ Incentive Monetization Timing: Assumes slight improvement in the terms associated with ITC transferability funds from current achievement. LMI
allocation process and final approvals obtained without extraordinary delays.
➔ Capital Markets Timing: Assumes normal cadence and timing of project finance execution.
➔ Other Working Capital: Local program incentives and rebates received as expected, inventory managed to target levels.
Note: Guidance provided on August 6, 2024 in the 2Q 2024 earnings release. The company assumes no obligation to update such guidance and the guidance is effective
only as of August 6, 2024, not the date of this presentation.
See Appendix for glossary of terms, including Cash Generation.
28
Sunrun has demonstrated 15+ years of consistent capital
markets execution
➔ We have a strong track record of attracting low-cost capital from diverse sources. Our access to capital markets puts us in a
position to offer more advantageous financing options to consumers while creating long-term value for investors.
➔ We have demonstrated industry-leading execution throughout our history, with the market and rating agencies increasingly
recognizing both the high quality of residential solar assets as well as our track record as a sponsor.
2030 Convertible Note placed (including $8.2m shoe); use of proceeds included purchasing part of the 2026 Convertible
note with continued repurchases expected $483 million
Repurchasing 2026 Convertible Notes: To date, we have repurchased over $266 million of these notes. Approximately one third of the notes
now remain outstanding. We will continue to be disciplined and selective with repurchases.
29
Sunrun has achieved strong Subscriber Values
➔ Sunrun has increased pricing and adjusted go-to-market approaches multiple times since 2022 to respond to inflation and higher
interest rates. High utility rate inflation across the United States has provided us headroom to increase pricing while still delivering
a strong customer value proposition.
➔ Higher cost of capital has reduced the amount of proceeds Sunrun can obtain upfront against the value of deployed systems,
with advance rates declining in recent periods. Current advance rates are estimated to be approximately 77% to 82% as
measured against Contracted Subscriber Value calculated using a 6% discount rate.
➔ Each ~100 bps change in cost of capital results in ~3% change in cumulative advance rate.
30
Outlook Full-year 2024:
➔ Reiterating Cash Generation guidance of $50 million to
$125 million ($200 million to $500 million annualized) in
Q4 2024.1
➔ Storage Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range
of 1,030 to 1,100 Megawatt hours, representing growth of
approximately 86% at the midpoint, an increase from the
prior guidance range of 800 to 1,000 Megawatt hours.
➔ Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to decline
approximately 15% compared to the prior year, in-line
with the low-end of the prior guidance range.
Year-over-year growth is expected to be positive in Q4.
3Q 2024:
➔ Storage Capacity Installed expected to be in a range of
275 to 300 Megawatt hours, reflecting approximately 64%
growth at the midpoint compared to the prior year.
➔ Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a
range of 220 to 230 Megawatts, reflecting approximately
17% sequential growth from Q2 at the midpoint.
➔ Cash Generation is expected to be positive.
➔ Net Subscriber Value expected to be materially higher in
the second half of 2024 relative to Q2 levels.
Full-year 2025:
➔ Introducing Cash Generation of $350 million to $600
million.1
Note: Guidance provided on August 6, 2024 in the 2Q 2024 earnings release. The company
assumes no obligation to update such guidance and the guidance is effective only as of
August 6, 2024, not the date of this presentation.
33
GAAP Balance Sheet
Non-controlling interests
represent our Tax Equity (under
partnership flip structures) and
Project Equity investors’
interests in our funds.
34
GAAP Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow From Operations is negative as
25-30% of our Creation Costs are expensed in
the period, while revenue is recognized over 80
periods or more. Additionally, we raise Debt and
Project Equity to fund our growth, which covers
CFO and CFI.
35
Metric Sensitivity Tables
➔ Net Earning Assets excludes other assets, such as Inventory ($353m as of 2Q24) and a portion of systems currently under construction but not yet recognized as deployed and therefore not yet
reflected in Gross Earning Assets.
➔ Existing assets are financed with fixed-rate debt or floating-rate debt where the vast majority of the base rate exposure is hedged with interest rate swaps. As such, adjusting the discount rate
applied to the entire fleet of existing assets with current financing costs applicable to new asset originations is not appropriate. Net derivative assets (total derivative assets less total derivative
liabilities) totaled $259 million at June 30, 2024 for $3.6 billion in notional amount of interest rate swaps.
36
Strong service transfer performance
When customers move or their service is otherwise transferred to a new homeowner, Sunrun has
maintained ~100% of expected contract value
Transfer Year
Net Subscriber
Value Recovery(2)
Zillow conducted a study in 2019 and found that solar increases the Data includes transfers related to Vivint Solar systems after 12/31/2021. Prior to this
date, Vivint Solar completed an additional 35,553 services transfers with an average
average sales price of a home(1) NPV recovery rate of 99%.
(1) Zillow (April, 2019). Homes With Solar Panels Sell for 4.1% More.
(2) Sunrun fleet-wide data as of December 31, 2023 for customer agreements with monthly payments only. The sum of the percentage columns and the balance columns may not equal 100.0% or the total, as applicable, due to
rounding. Excludes new home transfers, transfers that occurred prior to PTO and prepaid contracts. Includes completed service transfers with a reduction to the PPA or lease rate, and with a recovery rate less than 100%. Recovery
percentage is equal to the (i) the sum of (a) the remaining customer agreement cash flows after the service transfer discounted at 6% and (b) prepayments received in connection with the service transfer, divided by (ii) the remaining
customer agreement cash flows before the service transfer discounted at 6%.
37
Residential Solar is ~5% of the market today
Residential solar market
size is massive and
underpenetrated today
(1) Housing stock estimate is based on US Census 2021 American Community Survey Estimates by State using
occupied single-unit housing using average state occupancy estimates.
(2) EIA Form 861M Residential PV Customers (through February 2024).
(3) U.S. Census Bureau 2019 New Residential Construction statistics. 903,000 new single family home
completions in 2019.
MARKET
<3% 3%-20% >20%
PENETRATION 38
Modeling residential solar
key drivers of project cash flows
Sun, utility rates, site specifics, costs
(Average Sunhours)
>$0.15
Source: Energy Information Agency Form 861M, 2023 YTD Average Price of Residential
Electricity (data through May 2023).
39
Glossary
Deployments represent solar or storage systems, whether sold directly to customers or subject to executed Net Subscriber Value represents Subscriber Value less Creation Cost.
Customer Agreements (i) for which we have confirmation that the systems are installed, subject to final
inspection, or (ii) in the case of certain system installations by our partners, for which we have accrued at least Total Value Generated represents Net Subscriber Value multiplied by Subscriber Additions.
80% of the expected project cost (inclusive of acquisitions of installed systems).
Customers represent the cumulative number of Deployments, from the company’s inception through the
Customer Agreements refer to, collectively, solar or storage power purchase agreements and leases. measurement date.
Subscriber Additions represent the number of Deployments in the period that are subject to executed Subscribers represent the cumulative number of Customer Agreements for systems that have been
Customer Agreements. recognized as Deployments through the measurement date.
Customer Additions represent the number of Deployments in the period. Networked Solar Energy Capacity represents the aggregate megawatt production capacity of our solar
energy systems that have been recognized as Deployments, from the company’s inception through the
Solar Energy Capacity Installed represents the aggregate megawatt production capacity of our solar energy measurement date.
systems that were recognized as Deployments in the period.
Networked Solar Energy Capacity for Subscribers represents the aggregate megawatt production capacity
Solar Energy Capacity Installed for Subscribers represents the aggregate megawatt production capacity of of our solar energy systems that have been recognized as Deployments, from the company’s inception
our solar energy systems that were recognized as Deployments in the period that are subject to executed through the measurement date, that have been subject to executed Customer Agreements.
Customer Agreements.
Networked Storage Capacity represents the aggregate megawatt hour capacity of our storage systems that
Storage Capacity Installed represents the aggregate megawatt hour capacity of storage systems that were have been recognized as Deployments, from the company’s inception through the measurement date.
recognized as Deployments in the period.
Gross Earning Assets is calculated as Gross Earning Assets Contracted Period plus Gross Earning Assets
Creation Cost represents the sum of certain operating expenses and capital expenditures incurred divided by Renewal Period.
applicable Customer Additions and Subscriber Additions in the period. Creation Cost is comprised of (i)
installation costs, which includes the increase in gross solar energy system assets and the cost of customer Gross Earning Assets Contracted Period represents the present value of the remaining net cash flows
agreement revenue, excluding depreciation expense of fixed solar assets, and operating and maintenance (discounted at 6%) during the initial term of our Customer Agreements as of the measurement date. It is
expenses associated with existing Subscribers, plus (ii) sales and marketing costs, including increases to the calculated as the present value of cash flows (discounted at 6%) that we would receive from Subscribers in
gross capitalized costs to obtain contracts, net of the amortization expense of the costs to obtain contracts, future periods as set forth in Customer Agreements, after deducting expected operating and maintenance
plus (iii) general and administrative costs, and less (iv) the gross profit derived from selling systems to costs, equipment replacements costs, distributions to tax equity partners in consolidated joint venture
customers under sale agreements and Sunrun’s product distribution and lead generation businesses. Creation partnership flip structures, and distributions to project equity investors. We include cash flows we expect to
Cost excludes stock based compensation, amortization of intangibles, and research and development receive in future periods from tax equity partners, government incentive and rebate programs, contracted
expenses, along with other items the company deems to be non-recurring or extraordinary in nature. The sales of solar renewable energy credits, and awarded net cash flows from grid service programs with utilities
gross margin derived from solar energy systems and product sales is included as an offset to Creation Cost or grid operators.
since these sales are ancillary to the overall business model and lowers our overall cost of business. The
sales, marketing, general and administrative costs in Creation Costs is inclusive of sales, marketing, general Gross Earning Assets Renewal Period is the forecasted net present value we would receive upon or
and administrative activities related to the entire business, including solar energy system and product sales. following the expiration of the initial Customer Agreement term but before the 30th anniversary of the system’s
As such, by including the gross margin on solar energy system and product sales as a contra cost, the value activation (either in the form of cash payments during any applicable renewal period or a system purchase at
of all activities of the Company’s segment are represented in the Net Subscriber Value. the end of the initial term), for Subscribers as of the measurement date. We calculate the Gross Earning
Assets Renewal Period amount at the expiration of the initial contract term assuming either a system purchase
Subscriber Value represents the per subscriber value of upfront and future cash flows (discounted at 6%) or a renewal, forecasting only a 30-year customer relationship (although the customer may renew for
from Subscriber Additions in the period, including expected payments from customers as set forth in Customer additional years, or purchase the system), at a contract rate equal to 90% of the customer’s contractual rate in
Agreements, net proceeds from tax equity finance partners, payments from utility incentive and state rebate effect at the end of the initial contract term. After the initial contract term, our Customer Agreements typically
programs, contracted net grid service program cash flows, projected future cash flows from solar energy automatically renew on an annual basis and the rate is initially set at up to a 10% discount to then-prevailing
renewable energy credit sales, less estimated operating and maintenance costs to service the systems and utility power prices.
replace equipment, consistent with estimates by independent engineers, over the initial term of the Customer
Agreements and estimated renewal period. For Customer Agreements with 25 year initial contract terms, a 5 Net Earning Assets represents Gross Earning Assets, plus total cash, less adjusted debt and less
year renewal period is assumed. For a 20 year initial contract term, a 10 year renewal period is assumed. In pass-through financing obligations, as of the same measurement date. Debt is adjusted to exclude a pro-rata
all instances, we assume a 30-year customer relationship, although the customer may renew for additional share of non-recourse debt associated with funds with project equity structures along with debt associated
years, or purchase the system. with the company’s ITC safe harboring facility. Because estimated cash distributions to our project equity
partners are deducted from Gross Earning Assets, a proportional share of the corresponding project level
non-recourse debt is deducted from Net Earning Assets, as such debt would be serviced from cash flows
already excluded from Gross Earning Assets.
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Glossary (continued)
Cash Generation is calculated using the change in our unrestricted cash balance from our consolidated
balance sheet, less net proceeds (or plus net repayments) from all recourse debt (inclusive of convertible
debt), and less any primary equity issuances or net proceeds derived from employee stock award activity (or
plus any stock buybacks or dividends paid to common stockholders) as presented on the Company’s
consolidated statement of cash flows. The Company expects to continue to raise tax equity and asset-level
non-recourse debt to fund growth, and as such, these sources of cash are included in the definition of Cash
Generation. Cash Generation also excludes long-term asset or business divestitures and equity investments in
external non-consolidated businesses (or less dividends or distributions received in connection with such
equity investments).
Annual Recurring Revenue represents revenue arising from Customer Agreements over the following twelve
months for Subscribers that have met initial revenue recognition criteria as of the measurement date.
Average Contract Life Remaining represents the average number of years remaining in the initial term of
Customer Agreements for Subscribers that have met revenue recognition criteria as of the measurement date.
Households Served in Low-Income Multifamily Properties represent the number of individual rental units
served in low-income multi-family properties from shared solar energy systems deployed by Sunrun.
Households are counted when the solar energy system has interconnected with the grid, which may differ from
Deployment recognition criteria.
Positive Environmental Impact from Customers represents the estimated reduction in carbon emissions as
a result of energy produced from our Networked Solar Energy Capacity over the trailing twelve months. The
figure is presented in millions of metric tons of avoided carbon emissions and is calculated using the
Environmental Protection Agency’s AVERT tool. The figure is calculated using the most recent published tool
from the EPA, using the current-year avoided emission factor for distributed resources on a state by state
basis. The environmental impact is estimated based on the system, regardless of whether or not Sunrun
continues to own the system or any associated renewable energy credits.
Positive Expected Lifetime Environmental Impact from Customer Additions represents the estimated
reduction in carbon emissions over thirty years as a result of energy produced from solar energy systems that
were recognized as Deployments in the period. The figure is presented in millions of metric tons of avoided
carbon emissions and is calculated using the Environmental Protection Agency’s AVERT tool. The figure is
calculated using the most recent published tool from the EPA, using the current-year avoided emission factor
for distributed resources on a state by state basis, leveraging our estimated production figures for such
systems, which degrade over time, and is extrapolated for 30 years. The environmental impact is estimated
based on the system, regardless of whether or not Sunrun continues to own the system or any associated
renewable energy credits.
Total Cash represents the total of the restricted cash balance and unrestricted cash balance from our
consolidated balance sheet.
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Investor Relations
investors.sunrun.com
415-373-5206
[email protected]