Bis 13 745 The Costs of Carbon Capture and Storage For Uk Industry A High Level Review
Bis 13 745 The Costs of Carbon Capture and Storage For Uk Industry A High Level Review
26/03/13
Harsh Pershad
Eleanor Standen
Emrah Durusut
Shane Slater
Element Energy Limited
Executive Summary (1/4): CO2 capture in several UK industrial
sectors is feasible, but detailed technical analysis is required.
Internationally Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in a development and demonstration phase,
with examples of partial and full chain projects in both industry and power in design, construction or
operation. In December 2012, BIS commissioned Element Energy to prepare an updated 2030 CCS
marginal abatement cost curve for UK industry, following initial analysis for the Committee on
Climate Change in 2010. This was to be based on a short, high level analysis.
CO2 capture concepts have been proposed for existing industrial sectors currently represented in the
UK, including hydrogen, ammonia, iron and steel, refineries, CHP, cement, and ethylene. The UK
does have experience in capture, although international competition is significant. CO2 capture could
also be relevant for future industrial point source emitters.
Capture costs depend on diverse factors CO2 purity, scale, technology and site readiness. Even high
level capture cost estimation is challenging – there are several potential technical solutions (and
future technology development), diverse potential site restrictions/synergies, and uncertainties over
energy requirements/supply. Encouragingly several organisations (IEA-UNIDO, Imperial College,
Kuramochi, and technology suppliers etc. ) are looking into this.
Also a paucity of high quality studies of capture for industrial sites and no straightforward basis for
projecting what sites will still exist and how retrofit costs will change by 2030 make it challenging to
provide defensible £/t supply abatement cost curves for 2030. There may also be hidden costs (e.g.
plant downtime) and benefits not explored in the present study.
With the exception of (i) hydrogen and ammonia plants, for which capture costs are likely to be low
as they reflect only CO2 clean up and compression; and (ii) very small emitters, for which specific
costs will be high, the uncertainties in capture costs are greater than the differences between
sectors. Therefore it is premature to rank the majority of industrial sectors in terms of cost.
2
Executive Summary (2/4): CCS on existing industrial sources could
reduce up to ca. 5% of average current UK emissions but specific
abatement costs and uncertainties span nearly one order of magnitude.
3
Executive Summary (3/4): To deliver this, CO2 transport and
storage infrastructure, at the right capacity, specification, at the
right time, affordable and simple to access must be in place.
CCS requires a full chain of CO2 capture, transport and storage, and therefore there is a requirement to
develop safe, affordable transport and storage capacity, of the right size, in the right location and at the
right time.
This will be time consuming, with high up-front costs and diverse risks for potential infrastructure
developers. Small industrial sources will not be interested in long-term storage liabilities.
Important cost drivers are source-sink distance and economies of scale, and any industrial CCS
projects will likely need to share transport and storage capacity with each other and power sources –
creating challenges and opportunities, particularly around the development of clusters or hubs.
Costs of transport and storage depend on location and geology constraints - industrial emitters close to
the Humber and St. Fergus may find it straightforward to access storage. Emitters in South Wales, for
example, will find it much harder unless more storage sites are discovered or extensive CO2 transport
infrastructure is in place. Even in the most favourable locations, point-to-point capture-transport-storage
solutions for industrial emitters below 1 Mt/yr will likely be prohibitively expensive; indeed economies of
scale are significant even up to 10 Mt/yr, implying the use of shared networks.
However, the over-arching challenge will be creating an appropriate policy and investment model for
long-term industrial CCS to drive adoption – otherwise transport and storage infrastructure runs
stranded asset risks (i.e. under-utilisation).
Government choices on how to consider industrial CCS will clearly depend on political priorities (CCS
demonstration to a global audience, maximising UK CO2 reduction, industry protection/competitiveness,
cost efficiency, jobs, GVA, risk management, attracting new industry, enhanced oil recovery, managing
budget and trade deficits etc.).
4
Executive Summary (4/4) :
Overall marginal abatement cost curve for UK industry
5
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Bibliography
6
Background
7
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Bibliography
8
Techno-economic assessment process for capture from industrial
sources
Industry classification
9
Industrial emissions are projected to reduce due to energy
efficiency and fuel switching….
The DECC Updated Emissions Projections (2012) project an 11% reduction in emissions for
industry overall from 2009 to 2030. This reduction is the result of competing trends of:
•industry output increasing over time in line with economic growth (which returns to c. 2.5% by
2014, according to OBR 2012 forecasts),
•reductions in emissions driven by policies (primarily the EU ETS), and met through a
combination of fuel switching and energy efficiency measures.
The reductions in emissions has a greater impact than increasing industry output, resulting in
the overall reduction in emissions from this sector.
Source: The Carbon Plan, DECC (2011). Pathways to 2050, Key Results, AEA Technology (2011).
10
The DECC Updated Emissions Projections (2012)
Installation data has been filtered and grouped into reference
plant sizes for each sector
All installations in the EU ETS and DEFRA/SEPA Pollution Inventories with 2008-
2011 emissions greater than 50,000 tCO2/yr were included in the analysis.
8 sectors were identified as are suitable for CCS:
CHP, cement, and iron & steel plants show significant variability in size and were
further broken down by size so that representative project costs could be estimated.
CHP – divided into large, medium and small
Iron and Steel – divided into small and large
Cement – divided into large and small
11
The baseline dataset using emissions from current installations
was filtered by size and by eligible sectors…
1 Source: CCC progress report, 2012, emissions in 2011. Note: EU ETS data: average of emissions over 2008-
12
2011 Pollution Inventory data: average of emissions 2009-2010
Although there are numerous small emitters, a size filter of 50ktCO2/year
ensures that at least 90% of industrial emissions are examined in more
detail.
• A cut-off for size of emissions was established by Amec and Gastec in a report for
IEA GHG (2007) which examined the challenges for UK distribution networks for
CCS. Projects with emissions below 50,000t/yr were highlighted in the study as
having prohibitively high CO2 transport costs compared to the abatement potential.
Emitters below
50kt represent
less than 10% of
total industrial
emissions
13
Distribution of CO2 emissions between representative industries
(emitters above 50 kt/yr)
Annual sector
emissions Emissions, %
No of sites MtCO2/year of total
Iron & Steel (large) 3 18.3 28.8%
Refineries 8 16.0 25.0%
CHP (small) 89 9.3 14.5%
Cement (large) 7 4.9 7.7%
CHP (medium) 15 4.4 7.0%
CHP (large) 5 3.5 5.6%
Ethylene 3 2.5 4.0%
Cement (small) 5 1.6 2.5%
Lime 6 1.4 2.2%
Iron & Steel (small) 5 0.8 1.2%
Ammonia 2 0.7 1.2%
Hydrogen 1 0.2 0.3%
149 63.7 100
Source: EE analysis of EU ETS and DEFRA/SEPA Pollution Inventories, filtered to exclude emitters below 50,000t/yr 14
Outside of the major emitters, what are the other sectors?
• There are a range of sectors included. Most installations are CHP plants for various
industries.
• For the capture costs, we have assumed that these are all CHP.
Source: EE analysis 15
Capital cost models have been reviewed and updated
We have revised previous estimates for the capital costs and capture potential for the relevant
industrial sectors.
This has involved:
1. Reviewing data sources identified in the CCC 2010 study.
2.Literature search to identify new material.
3.Verifying then adding new data sources (8) to the capital costs and capture data.
4. Identification and resolution of systematic issues in the capital cost and capture data,
based on index, currency, changes, and correcting for missing data.
5. QC included standardisation of some assumptions (operating and maintenance costs
for capture, the supply of heat and electricity to drive capture, and discount rate) to
facilitate analysis.
6. Considering wider scenarios and sensitivities
• Source: DoE/NETL, 2010, Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants (revised)
• DoE/NETL, 2007, Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants. Vol. 1 Rev. 1. 16
Standardised datasets were produced for each sector..
17
There are many limitations of publicly available cost data
• For any given sector, there are few independent data sources, i.e. even recent
compilations of industrial capture costs are based on a limited number of conceptual
studies developed in the mid-2000s.
• Over the last few years global understanding of technology and project requirements
has improved considerably, and the wider market for engineering costs have changed
dramatically.
• In our judgement the available UK data does not allow reliable comparison today of
the relative costs of CO2 capture from different industries (e.g. iron and steel vs.
cement vs. refineries). This stems from a number of reasons:
• The underlying datasets were prepared by different engineers with different
bases for engineering design and costing.
• The rate at which capture technologies become available for industry and their
associated footprint and energy requirements
• Site-by-site variability in captureable CO2 emissions and costs could be
substantial.
• “Known unknowns” are the actual technology choice and sizing of capture,
nature of heat and power provision for capture, the fate of any arising CO2
emissions, assumptions on contingencies and owner’s costs, which have
been dealt with through scenario approaches.
• Also substantial uncertainties over relevant CO2 volumes in 2030, including the
potential for new sources (e.g. biofuel processing)
18
Plant cost standardisation
Most
industrial
capture
At any given stage there are an
cost
Anticipated cost reductions due to inherent cost uncertainty and
papers are
at concept learning and volume roll-out variability
stage**
Probability
distribution
function of
cost
Cost (£/tCO2)
Published
capture cost
estimates for
power CCS are
now at detailed
design
** Capture from ammonia and hydrogen sources is considered mature
Source: NETL, Technology learning curve (FOAK to NOAK) Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies, 2012
20
Treatment of additional CO2 emissions associated with capture
plant.
To capture CO2 emissions using today’s post-combustion technologies heat is required
to regenerate the solvent.
There may be opportunities for heat (and power provision) from existing equipment
onsite, use of a new gas CHP plant, waste heat, heat from gas boilers, or alternative
fuels may also be relevant.
Our previous (2010) study assumed that the additional emissions produced by the CHP
plant would also be captured. However, unless the original CO2 stream has a similar
composition (and ideally temperature and pressure), mixing CO2 streams adds
complexity, and may not always be technically or economically effective.
Except where stated, our scenarios assume that the emissions from additional CHP
sites are not captured if this would likely be of different CO2 composition.
In the case of CO2 capture from existing CHP systems, we have estimated a default
and upper bound cost scenario for the capture of CHP emissions. The default assumes
that the CHP plant has enough capacity to produce the heat required for capture over
and above heat demands from elsewhere, whereas the upper bound assumes additional
or replacement CHP capacity.
21
Where necessary, costs were standardised to reflect a UK-location, by a
multiplication factor and currency adjustment.
Location is an important driver of costs, with studies showing installed costs can be
between 10 and 60% more expensive in Europe than in the US (GCCSI (2011)).
Currency fluctuations can be very dramatic, e.g. ±30% over the course of twelve
months.
For this study, as the capture plant costs are dominated by equipment costs (e.g.
gasifiers, turbines), we have assumed a 20% uplift in costs to convert US cost
estimates to UK locations, i.e. UK £ cost per kWe = 1.20 x reported US $ cost per
kWe x £/$
The default exchange rate is $1.62:£1
Source: Global CCS Institute (2011) Economic Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies, with
22
input from Worley Parsons and Schlumberger
There are no definitive values for most of the levers, and so it is
more useful to show a range of costs on the MACC graph
DECC annually publishes estimates from different consultant engineers on the costs
of power generation. For CCS these show a very wide range of costs.
Consistently, we shall provide a range for industrial capture costs, rather than
showing “single” values.
We cannot be sure our reference sources correspond to “central” cost estimates…
Wider range of
uncertainty for
FOAK plant
• Most studies assume that a new CHP plant will be built to provide the energy (mainly
heat) required for post-combustion capture.
• Some industrial sites may be able to access excess heat from other processes to
use.
• The assumption made can have a significant impact on the capture cost
• For example Johanssen et al. (2012) identify cost ranges from €40-450/tCO2 avoided in
a quantitative comparison of heat supply options for capture for process industries.
Source: Johanssen et al 2012. Heat supply alternatives for CO2 capture in the process industry 24
Heat and electricity demand of the CO2 capture plant could be met
with a variety of options
Heat source
CO2 capture
Industrial Plant
plant Electricity
source
25
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Definition
Annualised Costs
Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
Sector costs in different scenarios
Summary tables
Bibliography
26
Cost and technology levers can be varied to produce the MACC
• The techno-economic model includes 8 key drivers for scenario and sensitivity
analysis.
• In terms of deriving a capture cost, preliminary results show that the three most
important factors are uncertainty over capital costs, fuel costs (which depend on both
the fuel price and energy efficiency of capture), and the discount rate.
27
Scenarios have been developed to understand impacts of cost
and performance uncertainties on overall costs.
Contingencies Base Base + 33% Base -10% Base -15% Base + 33%
and owner’s
cost
28
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Definition
Annualised Costs
Summary tables
Bibliography
29
Annualised reference plant costs for the “Nth of a kind” scenario
30
Annualised reference plant costs for the “First-of-a-kind”
scenario
31
Annualised reference plant costs for the “Capture technology
progress” scenario
32
Annualised reference plant costs for the “CCS favourable”
scenario
33
Annualised reference plant costs for the “CCS Unfavourable”
scenario
34
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Definition
Annualised Costs
Summary tables
Bibliography
35
The marginal capture cost curve for UK industry in 2030 indicates
30Mt+ potential with costs in the range ca. £20-300+/tCO2
(excluding transport and storage)
N.B. Sectoral ranking within the cost curve is not warranted – the current uncertainties in the capture cost and
capacity are greater than the differences between sectors.
37
Caveats on the draft MACC graph
To illustrate the impact cost and performance uncertainties, the graphs show the
marginal abatement capture cost curves for five scenarios:
S0) “nth of a kind”, i.e. significant deployment of CCS before 2030.
S1) “First-of-a-kind”, i.e. little progress in CCS before 2030
S2) “Rapid technology progress”, where performance of CCS has improved by 2030
S3) “CCS favourable scenario”
S4) “CCS unfavourable scenario”
The marginal abatement capture cost curve show capture only (see next chapter for
transport and storage costs). Typically capture costs represent 60-80% of total
system costs, but for small or inland sources could be much larger.
This MACC assumes abatement potential is based on all relevant UK sites having
installed carbon capture technology by 2030. We note that it is more likely that some
of this abatement potential will be satisfied by other technologies.
The potential and costs for transport or storage are excluded at this stage.
The analysis excludes site feasibility assessment, new sources in the period to 2030,
capital cost reduction from new technologies, and hidden costs.
38
Average CCS costs - assuming all sectors implement
• The costs of capture in industry appear competitive with the CCC’s estimates of the
costs of decarbonising the power sector.
39
Cumulative industrial CCS capture costs (assuming all sectors
implement) might be up to £6 billion.
To put these costs into context, the CCC has estimated that achieving power sector
decarbonisation by 2030 will have net present costs of the order of £100 billion over the 2020s.
40
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Definition
Annualised Costs
Summary tables
Bibliography
41
Summary table (1) Reference Plant Costs
(S0 – NOAK scenario)
Industry Refineries Iron & steel ‐ large (>3Mt/yr) Iron & steel ‐ small (<3Mt/yr) Cement ‐ large (>0.45 Mt/yr)
42
Summary table (2) Reference plant costs
(S0 – NOAK scenario)
O&M (£m/yr) £5 £4 £1 £1
43
Summary table (3) Reference plant costs
(S0 – NOAK scenario)
Industry Ethylene CHP ‐ small (<0,2 Mt/yr) CHP ‐ medium (0.2 ‐ 0.5 Mt/yr) CHP ‐ large (>0.5 Mt/yr)
Existing CHP plant is sufficient to Existing CHP plant is sufficient to Existing CHP plant is sufficient to
Reference project Derived from large CHP CCS costs produce the heat and electricity produce the heat and electricity produce the heat and electricity
required for capture (NETL, 2007) required for capture (NETL, 2007) required for capture (NETL, 2007)
Costs are adjusted to the UK Costs are adjusted to the UK Costs are adjusted to the UK Costs are adjusted to the UK
Adjustments to cost Inflated and converted to £(2012) Inflated and converted to £(2012) Inflated and converted to £(2012) Inflated and converted to £(2012)
Scaling factor Scaling factor Scaling factor Scaling factor
O&M (£m/yr) £2 £1 £2 £4
44
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Bibliography
45
Issues around transport and storage of CO2
CO2 storage is possible in deep (1-4 km) rocks that are porous (i.e. have spaces),
permeable (allow fluids to flow), and have a strong caprock that acts as a seal.
The storage capacity of the store must be sufficient to hold several years of CO2
emissions, i.e. several millions of tonnes.
Stores are accessed by wells – and the economics of storage will depend on the
supply chain for the oil and gas industry, which have high opportunity costs.
Individual wells can cost tens of millions of pounds, but will ideally support throughput
in the region of one million of tonnes per year.
CO2 has complex chemical, physical and flow properties that need to be managed
very carefully.
Detailed analysis of transport and storage engineering and commercial options can
take several years and cost several millions of pounds.
The resources available to assess transport and storage costs within this study can
only support very high level estimation of transport and storage options.
Element Energy has relied on published papers and in-house cost modelling
experience to develop ranges of costs for transport and storage for industrial sources
for different scenarios.
Developments and uncertainties in capture and those in transport and storage could
be largely independent. To simplify presentation, we have maintained the scenario
descriptions S0-S4.
46
ETI’s UK Storage Appraisal Project identifies significant offshore
capacity, but the storage distribution is complex and heterogeneous
P10 - 85 Gt
P50 - 78 Gt
“Theoretical P50 Capacity”
P90 - 71 Gt
“Effective Capacity”
(i.e. technically suitable)
“Practical Capacity”
(Meet public support and regulatory approval)
With large CO2 transport network “Matched
Without CO2 transport network economic
capacity”
Water level
Seabed
Source: ETI UK Storage Appraisal Project Final Report, Image courtesy of the Energy Technologies Institute 51
Transmission and storage per unit costs span two orders of
magnitude.
Source: ETI UK Storage Appraisal Project Final Report, Image courtesy of the Energy Technologies Institute 52
Transport cost drivers
For pipelines:
•CO2 pipelines have been in operation onshore since the 1970s and there is one offshore
CO2 pipeline in Norway.
•Overall pipeline costs are mainly determined by primarily by pipeline length, terrain,
diameter (i.e. capacity), cost of steel or engineering index, and the cost of financing.
•Annual fixed operating and maintenance costs for pipelines are expected to be about 1-
3% of capital cost, although there will be some fixed and variable costs for for
compression and pumping.
•Re-using pipelines offers dramatic cost reduction, but constrains locations of sources,
storage, capacity and future flexibility.
•Commercial success requires high utilisation in early years, which is sustained over
many decades.
•This implies a high level of certainty around technology, markets, policies/regulations
across the entire CCS chain is required to achieve lowest costs.
For shipping:
•CO2 shipping requires appropriate and compatible designs for liquefaction, loading,
unloading and further legal/regulatory clarity, particularly for cross-border shipping.
•Shipping costs are relatively insensitive to capacity and distance, making this option
relatively flexible.
53
Multiple transport options are relevant for connecting UK sources with UKCS
sinks, including new pipelines, re-used pipelines, shared pipelines and CO2
shipping and hub concepts.
Construction/modification work
Commissioning
Operational
Multiple opportunities to abort or restart development for technical, economic,
commercial, consenting/regulatory, legal or socio-political reasons
The Regional Development Agencies One North East, East of England Development
Agency, Yorkshire Forward and Scottish Enterprise examined plans for networks for
CO2 transport infrastructure.
Work from these has helped CCS demonstration/commercialisation candidates, and
plans by National Grid Carbon to develop a CO2 pipeline in the Humber are now well
advanced.
Since the abolition of RDAs, some of the momentum has been maintained by
CO2Sense in Yorkshire, and the PICCSI cluster in Teesside. Scottish Enterprise
remains active, recently examining options for integrated infrastructure CCS and
CO2-enhanced oil recovery.
Outside the UK, the Rotterdam Climate Initiative is a similar model of a public/private
partnership to develop a CCS network.
57
Due to high risk and difficulties of obtaining permissions for new
onshore pipelines the most relevant sources are near the
shoreline.
Legend
Cement • Onshore “linear” infrastructure (e.g.
plant
Refinery pipelines, railways, transmission,
Chemical
production motorways) requires very long lead
CHP and
other
times to manage the concerns of diverse
Iron and
Steel
stakeholders.
Large power
station
• The most promising locations for
industrial capture in 2030 are therefore
those where significant co-operation is
already underway to establish a CCS
network, i.e. in Scotland, Tees Valley
and Yorkshire (circled).
• Industrial emitters in other regions may
need active co-ordinators to develop
their own CCS networks and address
stakeholder concerns.
Parameter Bacton Barrow Easington Shore Forth Theddlethorpe Milford Haven St Fergus Teesside Thames Wirral
Stakeholder
Negligible Negligible High High High Negligible High High Negligible Negligible
Organisation
Number of potential
industrial capture 4 14 16 18 10 14 7 21 16 32
sources
Median distance of
industrial source to 65 76 67 39 115 139 1 7 56 61
shoreline hub/km
Median industrial
0.15 0.14 0.10 0.25 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.16 0.11
source MtCO2/yr
Combined emissions
0.6 2.4 4.8 5.7 1.6 6.4 0.9 7.6 5.3 6.9
MtCO2/yr
Proximity of
200-300
shoreline hub to <100 km <100 km <100 km 200-300 km <100 km > 300 km <100 km 200-300 km <100 km
km
offshore storage
Proximity to potential
power CO2 capture Medium Medium High High High High High High High High
sources
Since the design, availability and business model for CO2 transport and storage for
UK industrial sources in the period to 2030 is very uncertain, and there is therefore a
very wide range of potential costs associated.
At one extreme, there may be no available transport and storage capacity for
industrial emitters. (The effective cost of transport and storage is then the price of
building a dedicated source-sink connection).
At the opposite extreme, industrial sources may be able to share transport and
storage infrastructure which has been fully paid for by others, and where the
industrial emitters needs only pay the marginal variable costs of access.
In between these regimes, a more plausible 2030 scenario is where some capacity is
available for industrial emitters at “average” costs in shared CO2 transport and
storage infrastructure, but only at a limited number of hubs.
61
Shoreline Hub Case Study: The Tees Valley has the highest
concentration of industrial emissions.
Source: Element Energy (2010) The investment case for a CCS network in the Tees Valley 62
In the Tees Valley, sources are densely clustered onshore and an
integrated transport networks could be developed for a wide range of
CCS scenarios.
63
Many uncertainties could affect the costs of CO2 transport for the
emitters in the Tees Valley…
• When all combinations of uncertainties are considered, the range of potential tariffs spans
£2-100+/tCO2!
Source: Element Energy (2010) The investment case for a CCS network in the Tees Valley 64
European industry estimates of transport and storage costs
• The Zero Emissions Platform Task Force is an industry-driven coalition that advises
the European Commission on CCS. Its focus to date has been on the power sector,
although it is now beginning to consider CCS in industry.
• In 2011 ZEP published reports on average CO2 transport and storage costs in
Europe.
Large integrated networks
Method of CO2 2.5Mt/yr x 180 km (average cost, 20Mt/yr x 180
transport ±50% km)
±50%
Source: Zero Emissions Platform (2011) Transport Report & Storage Report 65
http://www.zeroemissionsplatform.eu/library/publication/168-zep-cost-report-storage.html
CO2 transport and storage scenario modelling
The transport and storage costs are calculated by combining predicted onshore
transport cost, offshore transport cost and storage costs.
The developments and uncertainties in capture and those in transport and storage
will be largely independent of each other. However, to simplify presentation by using
a limited number of scenarios, we have maintained the scenario descriptions S0-S4.
We further simplify by assuming S0 (NOAK) = S2 (Technology Development)
S0 (NOAK) and S2 (Technology Development) assume that there is significant
transport and storage infrastructure onshore and offshore, operating at high
utilisation, and costs are shared between industrial emitters and the power sector.
S1 (FOAK) assumes that there is limited transport and storage infrastructure in place,
implying few economies of scale and opportunities to share costs, and higher tariffs
reflecting risks for infrastructure developers.
S3 (low cost scenario) assumes that all stakeholders have co-operated strongly to
build efficient transport and storage infrastructure before 2030, and tariffs are low to
reflect the low risks for infrastructure developers. The scenario assumes extensive re-
use of infrastructure, adoption of CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery and that the majority of
infrastructure is paid for from the electricity market.
S4 (high cost scenario) assumes there is limited co-operation between stakeholders
leading to inefficient transport and storage infrastructure onshore and offshore, and
correspondingly high system tariffs.
66
Onshore transport cost model identifies costs of transporting CO2
by pipeline to the nearest potential terminal.
Pipeline sizing
Source model
location Distance
calculation
Pipeline sizing Pipeline
Terminal costing
location
Routing
correction CO2 flow Onshore Pipeline cost
factor Transport fee model
Networking
Final transport
benefit
cost
economics
67
Scenarios for average offshore CO2 transport and storage costs
from potential shoreline terminals were developed.
£/tCO2
Source: Element Energy analysis – assumes that industrial sources will share offshore networks with power 68
sources. Estimates are derived from team modelling of a wide range of offshore configurations.
Estimated CO2 transport and storage costs for industrial sources
The capture analysis suggests that a wide range of CO2 transport and storage
capacities (0-30+MtCO2/yr) may be required in 2030.
To our knowledge, no industrial source of CO2 has yet invested meaningfully in
transport and storage infrastructure.
The existing framework for decision making around CCS is focussed on individual
power projects and is unlikely to deliver options for economically efficient levels of
transport and storage capacity to support up to 30 Mt/yr CCS in industry in 2030.
However with appropriate policy interventions, and significant co-operation from
market actors, transport and storage costs could deliver a the “low cost scenario”.
Source: Element Energy analysis 70
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Bibliography
71
The industry 2030 CCS chain costs span a wide range from £20/t-
£500+/tCO2 avoided.
73
Outline
Background
Scenario Analysis
Bibliography
74
Literature reviewed - 1
2008 IEA GHG CO2 capture in the Breakdown of capital costs for a cement plant with post-combustion CO2 capture.
Cement Industry. Mott Capital cost of additional post-combustion plant of €294million, for a 1Mt/year
McDonald cement plant, based on installation of a coal-fired CHP plant.
75
Literature reviewed - 2
77
Literature reviewed - 4
78
Literature reviewed - 5