FB 20241011 Mosl Cu PG016
FB 20241011 Mosl Cu PG016
Federal Bank
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
81,381 24,964
CMP: INR187 TP: INR230 (+23%) Buy
Growth outlook steady; getting future-ready under new
leadership
Rising mix of high-yielding products to boost margins
Bloomberg FB IN
Equity Shares (m) 2448
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 459.8 / 5.5 Federal Bank (FB) has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory over FY22-24,
52-Week Range (INR) 207 / 137 with 20% CAGR in its loan book and 18% deposit growth. Over FY25-27, we
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 2/8/2 believe the bank is well poised to deliver an 18% loan CAGR, aided by effective
12M Avg Val (INR M) 2386
risk management and fintech partnerships.
Free float (%) 100.0
The bank views fintech partnerships as vital for product distribution, tech
Financials & Valuation (INR b) integration and network expansion to boost customer acquisition in FY25, as it
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E is optimistic about the lifting of regulatory restrictions on card issuance soon.
NII 82.9 96.8 117.5 We reckon that the implementation of LCR draft guidelines in their current form
OP 51.7 61.5 77.1
will impact FB’s LCR by ~1240bp. However in that scenario, if the bank were to
NP 37.2 41.2 49.8
NIM (%) 3.3 3.2 3.3 raise required deposits to restore its LCR back to 110% than as per our
EPS (INR) 16.3 16.9 20.5 calculations, FB’s RoA and margins would be impacted by 3bp and 8bp,
EPS Gr. (%) 14.5 3.5 20.9 respectively. Please refer our note for more details here.
BV/Sh. (INR) 119 134 152 In Jul’24, FB received the RBI's approval for Mr. KVS Manian as the new MD and
ABV/Sh. (INR) 113 127 143
CEO beginning Sep’24. With his extensive banking expertise, Mr. Manian is
Ratios
ROE (%) 14.7 13.4 14.3 expected to drive strategic changes and drive next leg of growth and
ROA (%) 1.3 1.2 1.3 profitability for the bank after already delivering robust performance over the
Valuations last few years.
P/E(X) 11.4 11.0 9.1 We estimate FB to achieve RoA/RoE of 1.3%/15.2% by FY27, making its current
P/BV (X) 1.6 1.4 1.2
valuation at 1.2x FY26 BV attractive for long-term growth; thus, we maintain our
Shareholding pattern (%) BUY rating with a TP of INR230 (1.5x FY26E ABV).
As On Jun-24 Mar-24 Jun-23 Growth outlook steady; business mix shifting toward high-yielding
Promoter 0.0 0.0 0.0 products
DII 44.7 44.9 41.8 FB achieved a robust 20% YoY credit growth in FY24, with 20% YoY growth in
FII 29.4 29.3 27.1 retail loans and significant growth in high-yield segments like credit cards (73%
Others 25.9 25.8 31.1
YoY) and microfinance loans (107% YoY). In commercial banking, the bank is
FII Includes depository receipts
enhancing its focus on supply chain growth and high-margin products, which
Stock performance (one-year) now make up 24.8% of its total portfolio, up from 19.8% in FY22 (excluding
Federal Bank business banking, the high-yielding book stands at ~7% vs. 5% in FY22). FB's
Nifty - Rebased cautious approach to unsecured loans, compared to larger peers, positions it
240 well to boost the share of high-yield loans and margins. Accordingly, we
estimate an 18% loan CAGR during FY25-27.
200
Robust deposit franchise; LCR ratio remains a concern
160 FB’s deposit growth was aligned with credit growth and stood at 18% YoY in
FY24, driven mainly by 24% YoY growth in term deposits. CASA deposits saw
120
modest growth, accounting for ~30.1% of the mix in 2QFY25. Despite the RBI’s
Apr-24
Jun-24
Dec-23
Aug-24
Feb-24
Oct-23
Oct-24
Strong underwriting enables healthy asset quality; est. credit cost of 30-
40bp
FB has maintained strong asset quality, with its GNPA/NNPA ratios improving to
2.1%/0.7% in FY24, driven by controlled slippages and robust recoveries. This
success is attributed to strategic customer selection and strong underwriting
practices, which remain effective even in co-lending partnerships. Under Mr.
Srinivasan's leadership, the bank has enhanced its underwriting standards, leading
to a gradual decline in gross slippages, particularly in corporate and SME segments,
while maintaining a lower unsecured loan mix. With credit costs estimated to be
around 30-40bp, we expect GNPA/NNPA ratios at 1.9%/0.6% by FY27.
13 October 2024 2
Federal Bank
FB delivered a robust 20% YoY credit growth during FY24, driven by healthy
traction across segments. Retail loans grew 20% YoY and the new higher-
yielding segment posted robust growth, i.e., 73% YoY growth in credit cards,
52% YoY growth in CV/CE, 40% YoY growth in personal loans, and 107% YoY
growth in microfinance loans.
FB aims to enhance its commercial banking vertical by focusing on supply chain
growth and high-yielding segments while upholding high-quality risk
management to ensure healthy growth in advances. Thus, the share of higher-
margin products in the portfolio mix improved to 24.8% in FY24 from 19.8% in
FY22 (excluding business banking, the high-yielding book stands at ~7% vs. 2.4%
in FY22).
FB's relatively calibrated approach to unsecured loans contrasts with larger
private peers, which have a double-digit share of unsecured loans (PL+CC). This
presents FB an opportunity to improve its share of high-yielding loans, thereby
benefitting on margins. We estimate FB to deliver healthy traction in business
growth, enabling it to deliver 18% loan CAGR over FY25-27E.
Loan mix Exhibit 1: Estimate healthy 18% loan CAGR over FY25-27E
Loans (INRb) Growth - YoY (%)
Retail
2% 20 20
34% SME 18 18 18
29% Agriculture
Gold 11 10
8
CV/CE
2% Corporate
18%
12% 3% MFI 1,223 1,319 1,449 1,744 2,094 2,460 2,891 3,403
Exhibit 2: Share of high-margin products (ex-MSME) rose to 7% in FY24 vs. 2.4% in FY22
FB is increasing its mix in MSME Credit card Personal loans CV/CE MFI
high-yielding segments like
CV/CE, MFI, personal loans,
and credit cards, which 1.6 1.7
0.8 1.6 1.6
0.3
accounted for 7% in FY24; 1.2 1.8 1.7
0.8 1.3
including business banking, 1.4 1.4
0.21.1 0.8
it accounted for 24.8%.
17.8 17.7 18.0 18.0
13 October 2024 3
Federal Bank
Under Mr. Manian's Exhibit 3: Mix of high-yielding segment of FB vs. Kotak bank
leadership, KMB has
Federal Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank
successfully diversified its 9.3%
portfolio with a focus on
high-yielding assets.
5.0%
His valuable experience will 3.6%
now be leveraged at FB to 2.5%
enhance its high-margin 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7%
portfolio.
13 October 2024 4
Federal Bank
FB’s deposit growth was broadly in line with credit growth at 18% YoY in FY24.
This growth was primarily led by TDs, which grew at a faster pace of 24% YoY,
while the bank faced challenges in CASA deposit accretion, reporting a modest
growth with the mix standing at ~30.1% in 2QFY25. The bank continued to
maintain a significant position in NR deposits, which grew by 8.6% YoY in
1QFY25, despite challenges.
Although the RBI’s embargo on its partnership with OneCard poses a setback,
FB’s strong fintech collaborations are crucial for enhancing cross-selling
opportunities, potentially increasing profitability and attracting valuable alliance
partners. Despite industry-wide challenges in deposit mobilization, FB’s strong
deposit granularity and effective fintech partnerships have supported healthy
deposit growth, which will enable the bank to deliver robust loan growth over
the coming years.
FB has a CD ratio of ~83% which positions it well to pursue business growth;
however, its LCR at 112.6% remains a concern as the RBI has proposed draft
norms that mandate an additional 5% run-off factor for deposits linked to
mobile and internet banking. We reckon that the implementation of LCR draft
guidelines in the current form will impact FB’s LCR by ~1240bp.
Exhibit 5: Estimate deposits CAGR at ~18% over FY25-27E Exhibit 6: CD ratio stable at 83%; LCR moderated to 112.6%
Deposits (INRb) Growth - YoY (%) CD Ratio (%) LCR Ratio (%)
145.2
18 141.4
17 17 17 18 138.6
13 13 128.1 127.8
125.0 124.8
119.9
112.6
5
1,726
4,083
1,523
2,134
2,525
2,960
3,475
82.5
82.7
85.2
83.5
81.8
82.8
83.1
82.9
FY22 1,817
1QFY25 83.0
1QFY24
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
FY21
FY27E
FY20
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
Exhibit 7: CASA ratio at 30% in 2QFY25; estimate CASA mix to improve to 32% by FY27
CASA ratio CASA + Deposits <3cr as % of total deposits
CASA + Deposits <INR30m
as % of total deposits 91% 91% 90% 91% 87% 82% 80%
moderated to 80% vs. 91%
in FY20.
13 October 2024 5
Federal Bank
Exhibit 9: We estimate a drop in LCR ratio by 1,240bp if draft guidelines are implemented
We reckon that the Federal Bank (INRb) Old LCR New LCR Drop in LCR
implementation of LCR Retail Deposits as per LCR 1,828 1,828
draft guidelines in the MIB (60% of retail deposits)- assumed 1,097
current form will impact Increase in Outflows (5% of MIB) 55
FB’s LCR by ~1,240bp. Net cash outflow (a) 443 498
HQLA (b) 499 499
LCR ratio % (b/a) 112.6 100.2 --12.40
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 10: Following are LCR ratios, If MIB as % of retail deposits assumed as 30-70%
106.0%
104.0%
102.0%
100.2%
98.4%
As per our calculation, FB’s RoA and margins will be impacted by 3bp and 8bp,
respectively, if the bank were to raise required deposits to improve its LCR to
110%, in case the draft LCR guidelines come into effect in the current form.
Please refer Exhibit 11 for details.
13 October 2024 6
Federal Bank
Exhibit 11: FB’s RoA/margins could be impacted by 3bp/7bp, if draft LCR guidelines come
into effect
We calculate FB’s RoA and Federal Bank (INRb) Old New
margins will be impacted by LCR (%) 112.6 100.2
3bp and 8bp, respectively, if
bank were to raise required Assuming LCR compliance of 106%
deposits to improve its LCR HQLA for LCR of 110% under new methodology 499 548
to 110% - Required increase in retail deposits 48.8
-Deposits required adjusted for SLR requirement
63.0
@18% & [email protected]%
- As % of total retail deposits as per LCR (1QFY25) 3.4%
- As % of total deposits as per BS (1QFY25) 2.3%
13 October 2024 7
Federal Bank
FB’s NIM contracted 4bp QoQ to 3.16% in 1QFY25 due to rising funding costs as
the CASA mix remained under pressure. However, the pace of contraction in
NIMs has been reducing gradually. Also, the bank’s lower fixed-rate book at 29%
will keep margins in check, particularly as the interest rate cycle turns.
FB is consciously trying to scale up the mix of high-yielding loans, as its margins
are ~120bp lower than those of larger peers, while the difference in the cost of
funds stands at ~60bp.
Despite the setback from the RBI's embargo on its partnership with OneCard,
FB's strong fintech collaborations are crucial for enhancing cross-selling
opportunities across customer segments, thereby boosting profitability and
attracting high-potential alliance partners.
Exhibit 12: Margin compressed in the past few quarters due to rise in funding cost
NIM (%)
We estimate NIMs to
sustain at 3.2% in FY25 as
the cost of fund stabilizes.
3.37 3.39
3.31
3.2 3.20 3.21
3.16 3.16
Exhibit 13: NIM is ~120bp lower than avg of large pvt bank… Exhibit 14: … however, the differential in CoF is ~60bp
AXSB Federal KMB ICICIB IIB AXSB Federal KMB ICICIB IIB
13 October 2024 8
Federal Bank
Exhibit 15: FB’s yield on advances is ~140bp lower than the avg of large pvt bank
YoA (%)
12.57
10.32 9.43 10.89
9.80
Despite adding very few branches between FY16 and FY22, FB faced elevated
opex due to significant investments in technology, compliance, and rising wage
costs. However, we believe there is potential for the bank to optimize its opex,
thereby enhancing its overall productivity and benefiting from improved
operating leverage. From FY23 to 1QFY25, FB added 146 branches, reflecting its
commitment to growth and robust digital infrastructure, leading to a higher C/I
ratio of 54.5% in FY24.
FB’s cost per employee has been increasing; however, its employee productivity
has been improving, with business per employee increasing to INR304m in FY24
from INR255m in FY22.
With ongoing investments in technology, expansion in branches and pressure on
revenue growth, the C/I ratio is expected to remain around 54% in FY25 before
gradually moderating to 50% by FY27.
Exhibit 16: Estimate C/I ratio and cost to asset ratio at 50%/2.0% by FY27
With continued investment C/I ratio (%) Cost to assets (%)
in business, technology and 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
employees, we expect the 1.9
C/I ratio to sustain at ~54% 1.9
1.8 1.8
in FY25 and recover
1.7
gradually to ~50% by FY27E.
13 October 2024 9
Federal Bank
FB has maintained strong asset quality, with its GNPA/NNPA ratios improving to
2.1%/0.7% in FY24, led by controlled slippages and robust recoveries. This
success stems from the bank’s strategic customer selection and strong
underwriting practices, which remain consistent even in co-lending
partnerships. Also, the bank expects recovery of an asset worth INR700m in the
coming quarters, which turned NPA last year.
Under the leadership of Mr. Srinivasan, FB has significantly enhanced its
underwriting standards, reflected in the gradual decline of gross slippages,
particularly in the corporate and SME segments. The bank’s gross slippages are
lower compared to larger peers, aided by a reduced unsecured loan mix. This
has led to lower incremental stress formation and a benign credit cost of 27bp.
With the credit cost expected to be around 30-40bp, we estimate GNPA/NNPA
ratios to moderate further to 1.9%/0.6% by FY27.
3.4
2.9 2.8 2.8
2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Exhibit 18: Estimate credit cost to remain stable at 30-40bp over FY25-27E
We estimate credit cost to Slippage ratio (calc,%) Credit cost (calc,%)
remain stable at 30-40bp 1.3
over FY25-27E 1.0
0.8 0.9
0.5
0.3 0.4 0.4
0.1
13 October 2024 10
Federal Bank
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
11.1
10.4
10.8
14.9
14.7
13.4
14.3
15.2
9.8
13 October 2024 11
Federal Bank
Exhibit 20: One-year forward P/B ratio Exhibit 21: One-year forward P/E ratio
P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x) P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x)
Min (x) +1SD -1SD Min (x) +1SD -1SD
2.3 31.0
1.9
1.8 24.0 23.9
1.5
1.4 17.0
1.3 1.2 17.0
12.0
10.3
0.8 0.9 10.0 6.9
Jun-23
Jun-18
Jun-23
Mar-22
Sep-24
Sep-14
Dec-15
Mar-17
Sep-19
Dec-20
Mar-22
Sep-24
Sep-14
Dec-15
Mar-17
Sep-19
Dec-20
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 22: DuPont Analysis: Estimate RoE to improve to 15.2% by FY27E as leverage improves
Y/E March FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Interest Income 7.77 7.20 6.47 6.98 7.80 7.81 7.85 7.89
Interest Expense 5.04 4.31 3.65 3.98 4.89 4.89 4.79 4.73
Net Interest Income 2.73 2.90 2.82 3.01 2.92 2.92 3.06 3.16
Core Fee Income 0.78 0.70 0.85 0.96 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01
Trading and others 0.36 0.33 0.14 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11
Non-Interest income 1.14 1.03 0.99 0.97 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.12
Total Income 3.87 3.92 3.81 3.97 4.00 4.00 4.16 4.28
Operating Expenses 1.99 1.93 2.03 1.98 2.18 2.15 2.16 2.15
-Employee cost 1.04 1.07 1.10 0.90 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
-Others 0.94 0.87 0.93 1.08 1.19 1.16 1.17 1.17
Operating Profits 1.89 1.99 1.78 1.99 1.82 1.86 2.01 2.13
Core Operating Profits 1.53 1.66 1.64 1.98 1.72 1.76 1.90 2.02
Provisions 0.69 0.87 0.58 0.31 0.07 0.19 0.27 0.32
PBT 1.20 1.12 1.20 1.68 1.75 1.67 1.74 1.80
Tax 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.46
RoA 0.91 0.83 0.89 1.25 1.31 1.24 1.30 1.34
Leverage (x) 12.2 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.2 10.8 11.1 11.3
RoE 11.1 10.4 10.8 14.9 14.7 13.4 14.3 15.2
Source: MOFSL, Company
13 October 2024 12
Federal Bank
Balance Sheet
Y/E March FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Share Capital 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Equity Share Capital 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
Reserves & Surplus 141.2 157.3 183.7 210.8 286.1 321.2 364.9 419.1
Net Worth 145.2 161.2 187.9 215.1 290.9 326.1 369.8 424.0
Deposits 1,522.9 1,726.4 1,817.0 2,133.9 2,525.3 2,959.7 3,474.7 4,082.8
-growth (%) 12.8 13.4 5.2 17.4 18.3 17.2 17.4 17.5
- CASA Dep 467.7 587.1 674.7 701.2 746.5 902.7 1,108.4 1,302.4
-growth (%) 7.0 25.5 14.9 3.9 6.5 20.9 22.8 17.5
Borrowings 103.7 90.7 153.9 193.2 180.3 166.9 183.6 202.0
Other Liabilities & Prov. 34.6 35.3 50.6 61.3 86.6 97.8 110.5 124.9
Total Liabilities 1,806.4 2,013.7 2,209.5 2,603.4 3,083.1 3,550.5 4,138.6 4,833.7
Current Assets 125.7 195.9 210.1 176.9 189.6 197.0 217.7 254.9
Investments 358.9 371.9 391.8 489.8 608.6 718.1 847.4 999.9
-growth (%) 12.8 3.6 5.4 25.0 24.2 18.0 18.0 18.0
Loans 1,222.7 1,318.8 1,449.3 1,744.5 2,094.0 2,460.5 2,891.1 3,402.8
-growth (%) 10.9 7.9 9.9 20.4 20.0 17.5 17.5 17.7
Fixed Assets 4.8 4.9 6.3 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.9 12.8
Other Assets 94.2 122.2 151.9 182.9 180.7 163.9 170.6 163.1
Total Assets 1,806.4 2,013.7 2,209.5 2,603.4 3,083.1 3,550.5 4,138.6 4,833.7
Asset Quality
GNPA 35.3 46.0 41.4 41.8 45.3 49.9 56.7 65.5
NNPA 16.1 15.7 13.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 16.5 19.0
Slippages 19.2 19.2 18.8 17.2 17.4 22.8 26.8 31.5
GNPA Ratio (%) 2.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
NNPA Ratio (%) 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Slippage Ratio (%) 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Credit Cost (%) 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
PCR (Excl Tech. write off) (%) 54.5 65.9 66.3 68.4 69.6 71.0 70.9 71.0
E: MOFSL Estimates
13 October 2024 13
Federal Bank
Valuation
RoE 11.1 10.4 10.8 14.9 14.7 13.4 14.3 15.2
RoA 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
RoRWA 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9
Book Value (INR) 73 81 89 102 119 134 152 174
-growth (%) 9.0 10.9 10.7 13.7 17.6 12.1 13.4 14.7
Price-BV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
Adjusted BV (INR) 65 72.7 81.6 94.1 112.8 126.5 143.3 164.2
Price-ABV (x) 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1
EPS (INR) 7.8 8.0 9.2 14.3 16.3 16.9 20.5 24.8
-growth (%) 23.4 2.8 15.6 54.8 14.5 3.5 20.9 21.1
Price-Earnings (x) 24.0 23.3 20.2 13.0 11.4 11.0 9.1 7.5
Dividend Per Share (INR) 1.7 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.0 2.5 2.5 2.5
Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3
E: MOFSL Estimates
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
13 October 2024 14
Federal Bank
13 October 2024 15
Federal Bank
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act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
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Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts
which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
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of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
Email Id: [email protected], Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person Contact No. Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date 022 40548000 / 022 67490600 [email protected]
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay 022 40548082 [email protected]
Mr. Ajay Menon 022 40548083 [email protected]
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to [email protected]. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
[email protected], for DP to [email protected].
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