Automotive

Industry
Report

SPRING 2024

Learn more
Industry Highlights
Overview

Globally, auto sales in 2024 are forecast to grow modestly compared to 2023. Despite a slowdown in growth, sales volumes in 2024 are expected to
surpass 92 million units and reach the highest levels since 2018.1 Vehicle production is expected to decline slightly into 2024 due to a faster-than-expected
inventory restocking and a more difficult consumer demand environment.2

In 2023, global vehicle sales rose 10.9% as supply chain issues eased worldwide. Production returned to normal levels and inventories were restocked.1 In
the U.S., light vehicle sales increased 13.1% year-over-year (YoY) to 15.5 million units in 2023.3 U.S. vehicle sales are expected to grow to 15.9 million units
in 2024, the highest level since 2019.2

Chinese auto sales rose to 30.1 million units in 2023, up 11.9% from 2022.4 China continues to dominate the electrified vehicle (EV) market, as over 35% of
new vehicles sold in 2023 were EVs. Yearly EV market share is expected to surpass 50% by 2026.5

In Europe, sales in 2023 rebounded off a record-low 2022,3 led by Western and Central European Markets.2 The four largest European markets (Germany,
France, Italy and Spain) all saw increases in new passenger registrations, with France, Italy, and Spain each growing over 16%.6

M&A activity in the automotive sector experienced a significant decline in 2023, reaching the lowest number of transactions closed in the last decade. The
number of transactions through the first quarter of 2024 was down 35% YoY.7

Public company equity performance in most selected automotive indexes trended upward in the first quarter of 2023, although the Electric Vehicles index
underperformed other groups and the overall market.7

2
 Global Light Vehicle Sales Grew
11% from 2022 to 20231

Global Auto Sales Expected to Grow

Modestly in 20241

Executive Summary U.S. Electric Vehicle Market Share

Hit New Highs in 2023, but
Momentum Has Slowed8

Automotive Partnerships with

eVTOLs Expected to Start Service in
Coming Years9

Automotive M&A Activity in 2023

Fell to a 10 year Low7

3
Global Auto Sales Trends
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
In 2023, global vehicle sales grew almost 11% YoY.1 As supply chain issues eased, especially related to computer chips, auto production returned to normal levels globally
and inventories were restocked across many regions.3

Global car sales increased to nearly 90 million units in 2023, up from 81 million in 2022 and the highest level seen since 2019. China, the largest market in the world, grew
considerably at 12%.4 The U.S. rebounded after a poor 2022 with a 13% increase in sales. India remained the third largest single-country car market with 8% growth and
4.1 million units sold. Sales in Europe grew after four years of decline. Japan was close behind with nearly 16% growth and 4.0 million units sold.3 Volumes in Mexico
continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain issues as the country became the fastest growing large car market in the world, surpassing 1.3 million
units sold and a 24% growth rate compared to 2022.10

Globally, vehicle sales are projected to increase between 2.5% and 3.0% in 2024, followed by another year of projected modest growth of around 2.0% to 2.5% in 2025.1,2

Annual Global Vehicle Sales 2023 Global Bestselling Brands

100.0 95.3 94.3 92.2 94.2 15% Brand % of 2023 2022

90.2 89.8 Brand Bestselling Vehicle
Market Share Rank
81.5 81.0
77.8 10%
80.0
1. Toyota Corolla 10.7% 1
5%
Units in Millions

60.0
2. Volkswagen Tiguan 6.0% 2

Growth
0%
40.0
-5% 3. Honda CR-V 4.6% 3
20.0
-10%
4. Hyundai Tucson 4.5% 4
0.0 -15%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 5. Ford F-Series 4.4% 10
Units Growth
Sources: Sources:
“Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.” ING. February 23, 2023. “New Tiguan Generation: Volkswagen’s Bestseller Celebrates World Premiere in Front of 10,000 Employees.” VW Newsroom. September 19, 2023.
“World Best Selling Car Ranking 2023.” Focus2Move. January 5, 2023. 4
“World Best Selling Car Brands in 2023.” Focus2Move. February 25, 2023.
All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.
2024 Global Automotive Outlook
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
In 2024, global vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly due to a recovering supply chain and pent-up demand. Those sales expectations are tempered by elevated
vehicle pricing and tough lending conditions. Production in 2024 is expected to remain flat as many geographies have reached inventory equilibrium following a
tumultuous few years.2

United States: Vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to grow at a moderate pace to 15.9 million units in 2024, up from 15.5 million units in 2023. 15.9 million units
would be the highest annual count since 2019. High interest rates (see chart below) and tight credit conditions, as well as higher sticker prices, are expected to
negatively impact sales estimates. Production is expected to continue to grow, leading to higher inventories and the possibility for increased sales incentives. The
number of battery electric vehicle (BEV) models available is expected to cross 100 in 2024, offering customers more choices across segments and price points.2

China: The 2024 market is expected to see another year of strong growth, with light vehicle sales expected to grow 4.2%. Sales increases are expected to be
supported by improving consumer confidence and the continued pent-up demand from pandemic lockdowns. Electrified vehicle (EV) sales are expected to further
increase in 2024 as battery prices continue to fall and China’s EV tax exemption is extended. EV market share is expected to reach 44% for the full year.2

Europe: 2024 vehicle sales are forecasted at 15.1 million units, up 2.9% from 14.7 million Average Rate on 48 Month New U.S. Auto Loans
units in 2023. While improving inventory levels are expected to boost sales, recession 9.0%
worries, credit conditions, ending of EV subsidies, and high car prices may moderate that
8.0%
growth. Vehicle production in Europe is estimated to fall 1.8% in 2024, as growing imports
from China and already-higher inventory levels are expected to temper manufacturing 7.0%
levels.2 6.0%
5.0%
Electrified Vehicles: Globally, electrified vehicle sales are expected to increase by nearly
4.0%
40% to 13.3 million units in 2024. BEV market share is expected to rise to an estimated
16.2%, up from 2023 market share of 12.0%. China is once again expected to be the world 3.0%
leader in BEV sales, but geographies like Europe and India are expected to have more 2.0%
growth.2 As shown on the next page, the U.S. EV market is expected to grow significantly 1.0%
in 2024, albeit less than previously expected.11,12
0.0%

Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
May-17
Nov-17
May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
Nov-21
May-22
Nov-22
May-23
Nov-23
Sources:
FRED
5
United States Electrified Vehicle Update
2023 in Review and 2024 Expectations
Electrified vehicle sales hit an all-time high in the U.S. in 2023, with over 1.1 million BEVs sold. That represents a staggering 53%
increase over 2022 BEV sales. Counting HEVs and PHEVs, total EV sales also increased by over 50% in 2023. Despite the record EV = Electrified Vehicles
sales numbers, underlying trends could signal the start of a slowdown. Q4 2023 BEV sales were the slowest growing quarter since
2020, and the first two months of 2024 saw declining month over month (MoM) BEV sales.8 Additionally, EV inventories are BEV = HEV = PHEV =
increasing–114 days of supply in December 2023, up from 53 days in 2022 and markedly higher than 71 days for the overall auto Battery Hybrid Plug-In
industry.13 Electric Electric Hybrid
Vehicle Vehicle Electric
High Prices: The average EV sells for about $51,000. That is down from over $66,000 over a year ago but is still more expensive
Vehicle
than the average for all vehicles. Generally, most EVs are higher priced, with 78% in the premium category.14 By December 2023,
only two models could be purchased for under $40,000: the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf.15 Additionally, while EV drivers
save in gas costs, they generally pay more for insurance and installation of at-home chargers.
All in, the average cost of owning an EV over the first five years is $65,000 compared with Gas Prices vs EV Market Penetration in the United States
the average gas vehicle at under $57,000.16
$5.00 20.00%
Battery Range and Charging Stations: On top of high prices, 77% of consumers worry
about lack of charging stations and 73% stress about battery life.16 This “range anxiety” $4.00 16.00%
persists even though 93% of U.S. trips were less than 30 miles and U.S. drivers travel only
40 miles per day on average.17 $3.00 12.00%

Outlook: 2024 has not seen a great start for the EV market. Ford and GM have cut
$2.00 8.00%
production of their EV trucks, other manufacturers have reduced their EV sales projections,
and Tesla has warned of slower growth this year.12 Despite these announcements, experts
still expect EV sales to grow substantially in 2024, with average projected sales growth of $1.00 4.00%
over 40%.11
$0.00 0.00%
2024 Projections

Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Nov-23
Feb-24
2023 AutoPacific Cox Auto S&P Global Mobility

BEV Sales (millions) 1.13 1.45 1.57 1.75

BEV Market Share 7.3% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% Retail Gasoline Prices BEV Monthly Market Share EV Monthly Market Share

Sources: Sources:
Inside Climate News Argonne National Laboratory
U.S. Energy Information Administration 6
Autonomous Technology Developments
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
Although leading players in the autonomous vehicle (AV) industry were able to effectively run and expand first commercial operations, and increase funding in 2023,
many other companies saw significant setbacks, stopped operations, or exited the market entirely. Below are the key takeaways from the AV industry in 2023 as well
as its future potential in 2024 and beyond:

Players Expect Regional and Market Consolidation:

 Market players and industry experts believe that three or fewer companies will capture a dominant share of the market in the coming years. The North American market is expected to have the most
players, while in contrast, many experts believe the European market will be dominated by two or fewer players.
 Although there has been an increase in development and interest in autonomous technology in the auto industry, no company has yet been able to fully reach large-scale commercialization. Some
estimates still expect autonomous driving systems with no safety driver in the vehicle could still take up to 10 more years. Expansion of AVs will likely be gradual and on a region-by-region basis.
One example of a company adopting a smaller-scale commercialization would be Waymo One, which offers fully autonomous rides in Phoenix, Arizona.

Timeline for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Is Extending:

 The timeline for adoption of AVs is believed to have slipped by two to three years on average across all autonomy levels. According to a new survey conducted by McKinsey & Company, L4 robo-
taxis are now expected to be commercially available in 2030 and fully autonomous trucking by 2028-2031. AV regulations and regulatory challenges have become obstacles for advancement.

Regulation, Technology, & Consumer Safety = Bottlenecks:

 Industry players believe regulation is the biggest bottleneck to the autonomous industry. However, this year these players reported an increased focus on a need for investment in technology.
Continued consumer adoption of AVs is also a major concern, with over 66% of leaders pointing to improved safety as a key consideration for consumers. The ability to multitask and do work while
driving are considered a secondary consideration.

Increased Investments in Software Needed to Achieve Full Autonomy:

 It is now understood that a significant increase in investment is needed to fully reach L4 and higher levels of autonomy until first commercial launch. Software development will be the major driver
of this much-needed investment. Software development and enhancements will have a critical role in pushing technology forward and displaying AVs’ overall safety.
 Software is expected to require a significant investment, but it is also expected to be the most profitable of the technology elements for AVs, at around 15% for average margins.

Expect Industry Leaders to Experiment with New Monetization Models:

 As more advanced AVs appear, many industry experts believe new go-to-market models will likely be implemented. Established AV players mainly stick to pay-per-use models, however start-ups
and smaller companies prefer subscription models. Industry leaders are also considering pay-per-mile and per-trip models.

Sources:
“Autonomous vehicles moving forward: Perspectives from industry leaders.” McKinsey & Company. January 5, 2024. 7
Hawkins, Andrew J. “Dude, where’s my self-driving car?” The Verge. February 14, 2024.
“Which Trends are driving the autonomous vehicle industry?” World Economic Forum. November 8, 2021.
 Mobility Technology & Applied AI
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
The mobility sector has gone under rapid transformation over the past few years due mostly in part to the growth in EVs, autonomous driving, and other technological
innovations. A survey done by McKinsey & Company on the mobility sector analyzed and identified the top 10 transformative technologies in the mobility sector and
whether companies were already implementing or planned to implement these technologies in the near term. Most of these businesses are focused on innovation and
investment related to applied AI systems. Disruptions in the industry are on the horizon for the mobility sector as it is a rapidly changing ecosystem with new
innovations being created on a frequent basis. Companies that focus on the top ten transformative technologies influencing the mobility sector can disrupt the industry
with new emerging products and services that transform vehicles, provide consumers with new options, and improve revenue streams.
Innovation by Region:
 In the sample used by McKinsey & Company, companies based in the U.S. are far more likely to report that they are working on one or more of the
Top 10 Transformative Tech Trends
top five tech trends mentioned in the exhibit below. As an example, 33% of companies working on applied AI are based in the U.S. in the Mobility Sector
 Continued disruptions in the market (e.g., the recent semiconductor shortage) have dramatically accelerated several underlying technological 1. Advanced Connectivity
advancements in the auto industry. 2. Applied AI
3. Cloud and Edge Computing
4. Generative AI
Applied AI and Transformative Impact: 5. Immersive-Reality Tech
6. Industrialization of Machine Learning
 Applied AI was examined to be the most popular technology trend of the ten transformative trends listed in the exhibit to the right. This technology 7. Next-Generation Software Development
is set to disrupt multiple aspects of the mobility industry. 8. Quantum Tech
9. Trust Architecture and Digital-Identity Tools
 Prominence of Applied AI within the mobility industry enhances numerous processes, enables automation, and addresses long-standing 10. Web3
issues/problems. Following are a few examples:
Top Five Tech Trends that Companies
1. Engineering and R&D: Some companies use Applied AI to create and control virtual worlds in which they can “train” specific algorithms that enable
autonomous driving. AI algorithms can identify weaknesses in current structures and models, as well as run millions of additional scenarios for use in testing.
in the Mobility Industry Are Most
Likely to Invest In
2. Procurement: Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are using Applied AI to identify environmental, social and governance risks along the supply chain.
Algorithms can analyze news items about key-specific suppliers to identify potential problems, such as history with corruption, scandals or anything else,
much more quickly and efficiently than any human. 5.1% Applied AI
7.7%
3. Manufacturing: Using Applied AI in tandem with vision cameras, lidar, and radar, OEM’s have been able to improve quality control during manufacturing. For
example, a leading automotive manufacturer is using AI-controlled robots to maintain individual vehicle processing and quality standards. AI-infused cameras Advanced
have led to manufacturers being able to scan and identify even the most minor variations even in reflective paintwork. Connectivity
13.2% Cloud and Edge
4. Marketing and Sales: Companies utilize Applied AI to identify customers who might be at risk of choosing another competitor and then create incentives to
Computing
increase their satisfaction instantly, potentially increasing customer retention and decreasing costs. 57.6%
16.4%
Web3
5. Life Cycle Services: OEMs that incorporate Applied AI into vehicle production and onboarding systems can analyze their customers’ information and
preferences and then make personalized recommendations or enhancements.
Immersive-Reality
Tech
Sources:
“What technology trends are shaping the mobility sector?” McKinsey & Company. February 14, 2024. 8
“The future of automotive mobility to 2035.” Deloitte. February 16, 2023.
Cubiss, Jay. “The Future of Automotive and Mobility.” Forbes. May 5, 2021.
Air Mobility Update and Select Partnerships
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
The auto industry is rapidly changing and many of the biggest companies in this sector are hoping to diversify their portfolios beyond just ground vehicles. Many companies
like Hyundai, Toyota, Stellantis and Mercedez-Benz have all invested in air mobility start-ups that could see takeoff in the near future. Electric vertical takeoff and landing
aircraft (eVTOL) could be manufactured in the thousands at already established auto plants and factories. The hope is to allow a new form of transportation for commuters,
while also decongesting current highway systems. The eVTOL industry is currently valued at $8.8 billion and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 20% to $37.2 billion by
2030.

Hyundai and Supernal: Toyota and Joby: Stellantis and Archer: Mercedes-Benz / Geely and Volocopter:
 Supernal is a wholly-owned subsidiary of  Toyota invested around $400 million in  A manufacturing-oriented partnership  In 2017, Volocopter raised $780.6 million,
Hyundai. Joby. In April 2023, Toyota signed long- between auto maker Stellantis and Archer which included a $30 million investment
term agreement to supply key Aviation, one of the leading eVTOL start- from Merceds-Benz.
 Aircraft: V-tailed, tilt-rotor S-A2 aircraft. components, such as powertrains, to Joby. ups.
Plan to select a manufacturing site in the  Volocopter has tested aircraft in major
U.S.  Joby plans to open a factory capable of  Construction on a factory in Covington, markets all around the world including,
manufacturing 500 aircraft a year in Georgia, is currently underway. Expected most recently, New York and Tampa as of
 Expected to get certification for the Dayton, Ohio, later this year. to begin production in mid-2024 and be November 2023.
aircraft’s airworthiness through the FAA capable of eventually producing 650
this year.  Toyota helped Joby set up first production aircraft per year with space to expand to  Commercial Service expected in the
line in Marina, California. around 2,300 aircraft per year. summer of 2024 specifically for Paris in
 Plans to launch service in 2028, with S-A2 time for the Paris Olympic Games.
prototype ready for flight tests in 2024  New York City has been eyed as the  Archer secured a $215 million investment
and preproduction testing in 2026-2027. potential first destination for rollouts. from Stellantis, Boeing and United  Service would start with the “VoloCity”
Airlines. Stellantis currently owns more two-passenger aircraft and eventually
 Los Angeles is likely target for first than 38 million shares of Archer stock. plan to expand to larger passenger
rollouts, however, no official routes vehicles as well as drones to carry cargo.
disclosed yet.  Goal is to start service by 2025 in Chicago.

Source:
Bigelow, Pete. “Air mobility meets autos: Stellantis, Toyota, Hyundai bring manufacturing muscle to new market.” Automotive News. January 30, 2024. 9
Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners
North American Auto Sales Trends
Automotive Landscape by Geography
In 2023, U.S. new light-vehicle sales hit 15.5 million units. This is a 13.1% increase from 2022 and is the highest sales total since 2019,3 but still over 1.8 million units
lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average. Despite a United Auto Workers strike that disrupted production, 2023 was a surprisingly strong year for U.S. auto
sales, as the new vehicle market was bolstered by increased deliveries, improved supply, and higher dealer incentives. New vehicle inventory continued to build through
the end of the year, with inventory volume at 2.6 million, an increase of nearly 55% compared to one year ago. Days’ supply also grew from 60 days at the end of 2022
to 71 by December 2023.18

2024 forecasted sales in the U.S. are expected to grow modestly to 15.9 million.2 Despite normalizing supply conditions to end of 2023, experts believe that high
vehicle prices and elevated interest rates will keep vehicle sales modest in 2024.18 Rising incentive levels may help vehicle affordability in 2024 if production and
inventory levels continue to grow.2

By category, pickup trucks dominated the U.S. market once again with the top three selling vehicles in 2023.19 BEVs, however, were the fastest growing category.
BEVs increased from a 5.4% U.S. market share in 2022 to 7.3% in 2023, with 1.1 million units sold. Including HEVs and PHEVs, the total electrified vehicle market
share in the U.S. was 16.8%.8

Yearly U.S. Vehicle Sales 2023 U.S. Bestselling Vehicles

20.0 Change
17.4 17.5 17.2 17.3 17.0 Model Make Units Sold
18.0 16.4 From 2022
15.5 15.5 15.9
16.0 14.7 15.0
13.7 1. Ford F-Series 750,789 14.8%
14.0
Units in Millions

12.0
2. Chevrolet Silverado 555,148 6.6%
10.0
8.0
6.0
3. Ram Pickup 444,927 -5.0%
4.0
2.0 4. Toyota RAV4 434,943 18.6%
0.0
5. Honda CRV 361,457 51.8%
Sources:
Sources: “2023 U.S. Auto Sales Figures – By Model.” Good Car Bad Car. March 2024.
“US Auto Industry Sales Analysis.” GoodCarBadCar. March 2024. All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. 10
Bekker, Henk. “2023 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales.” Best-Selling-Cars. January 19, 2024.
“S&P Global Mobility Forecasts 88.3M Auto Sales in 2024.” S&P Global. December 14, 2023.
Chinese Automotive Landscape
Automotive Landscape by Geography
Chinese automotive sales in 2023 increased to a record 30.1 million vehicles, up 12% from 2022. Much of the increase came in commercial vehicle sales, up 22% to 4.0
million for the year as commercial sales continued to recover from COVID-19 lows. Aggressive promotional campaigns and steep discounts led to the increased
domestic consumption. Exports rose 58%, as sales to Russia increased after many other car manufacturers withdrew from the market following the Russia-Ukraine
war.4

January 2024 saw reduced sales volumes as dealers pulled back on their year-end discounts. February sales are also expected to be light as dealers shut down for the
Chinese New Year holiday.20 Despite a slow start to 2024, sales are expected to increase this year with further post-COVID consumer confidence increases, and as EVs
continue to become more affordable with falling battery prices and EV tax exemptions.2

BYD topped Volkswagen to become China’s top-selling car brand in 2023, driven by their dominant electrified vehicle market share. In the last quarter of 2023, BYD
surpassed Tesla as the largest global seller of EVs.21 EV monthly market share topped 40% for first time in November 2023. Despite a drop in EV market share to start
2024, monthly share is expected to cross the 50% threshold before the end of the year.5

Chinese Monthly Auto Sales

3.50 45.0%

40.0%
3.00
35.0%

EV Monthly Market Share

2.50
30.0%
Vehicles in Millions

2.00 25.0%

1.50 20.0%

15.0%
1.00
10.0%
0.50
5.0%

0.00 0.0%

Monthly Vehicle Sales 4-Month Moving Average EV Monthly Market Share Sources:
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Clean Technica 11
European Automotive Landscape
Automotive Landscape by Geography
In 2023, car registrations were up 13.8% in the EU, EFTA and UK combined compared to 2022, with most major markets experiencing significant registration growth.
The four largest markets of Germany, France, Italy and Spain grew 7.3%, 16.1%, 18.9% and 16.7%, respectively. Much of the increase was attributed to increased
production due to easing of supply chain issues. Elsewhere in Europe, the UK grew 17.9% and Turkey grew an astonishing 63.2% to nearly 1 million registrations in
2023. Russia and Ukraine both experienced some recovery after a poor 2022. Despite a strong year overall, December registrations actually declined YoY, the first
decrease in 16 months.6

The EV market in the EU grew substantially in 2023. BEV volume grew 37% in 2023 to over 1.5 million units registered for the year. For the EU+EFTA+UK, market
share of BEVs grew to 15.7%, up from 13.9% in 2022. Including HEVs and PHEVs, market share of all EVs reached 49.8% in 2023.6

Looking forward to 2024, European vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly, around 3%.2 While improved production and better inventory helped grow vehicle
sales in 2023, consumers are expected to face headwinds in 2024. Similar to North America, higher interest rates, inflation, elevated vehicle prices, and political and
economic risks are expected to temper vehicle sale expectations for 2024.2,22
European Monthly Auto Registrations 2023 New Car Fuel Types
1,500 26.2% 30.0%
2.6%

20.7%
New Registrations in Thousands

1,200 18.2% 18.7% 7.7%

16.1% 16.7% 20.0%

Year Over Year Growth

Gasoline
14.1%
12.3% Diesel
900 10.7% 11.1% 35.7%
15.7%
10.0% Hybid Electric
6.0%
600 Battery Electric

Plug-In Hybrid
-3.8% 0.0%
300 26.4% Other
11.9%

0 -10.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2021 Registrations 2022 Registrations 2023 Registrations 2024 Registrations 2023 YoY Growth
Source: The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA)
Note: Monthly registrations represent new passenger car registrations in the European Union (EU), European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and the United Kingdom (UK)
12
Public Company Equity Performance
Public Company Trading Statistics
Over the past two years, the automotive indexes varied significantly in performance. Automotive Mobility rose 59.7%, driven largely by increases in ride-sharing
companies since the third quarter of last year. The Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair, Automotive Dealers, and Automotive OEMs indices ended the two-year
period up 43.6%, 26.5% and 19.2%, respectively. Automotive Suppliers underperformed the S&P 500, decreasing by 2.5%. The Electric Vehicles index declined 53.4%
due to significant stock declines at Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.7

In the YTD period ended March 31, 2024, the Automotive Mobility index was the largest gainer, up 25.0%. Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair was up 21.4%
and Automotive OEMs was up 19.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 gain of 10.8% during that same time period. The Automotive Suppliers and Automotive Dealers
indices increased slightly, while the Electric Vehicles index declined nearly 30% as each company in the index has declined over 25% YTD.7
Last Two Years Equity Market Performance YTD 2024 Equity Market Performance

80.0% 40.0%

60.0% 59.7% 30.0%

25.0%
40.0% 43.6% 21.4%
20.0%
19.5%
26.5%
20.0% 19.2% 10.0% 10.8%
20.1% 3.9%
0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
(2.5%)

-20.0% -10.0%

-40.0% -20.0%

(53.4%) (29.7%)
-60.0% -30.0%

-80.0% -40.0%
Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 1-Jan-24 16-Jan-24 31-Jan-24 15-Feb-24 1-Mar-24 16-Mar-24

S&P 500 Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair Automotive Suppliers Automotive Mobility Automotive OEMs Automotive Dealers Electric Vehicles

Note: Represents the most actively traded public automotive sector companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ as of March 31, 2024 13
Historical Trading Multiples
Public Company Trading Statistics
The Automotive OEMs are trading at 6.1x LTM EPS, down over 4.0x from their five-year median price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 10.3x. The Automotive Aftermarket
Index is currently trading in line with their five-year median EV/EBITDA multiple. Historically, the Aftermarket Index has consistently traded around 11.0x to 15.0x
EV/EBITDA. Automotive Dealer multiples have increased in the last year, currently trading at 7.0x, up from 5.0x in 2022. Automotive Suppliers are trading below their
five-year median multiple of 6.1x.7

Historical P/E Multiples Since 2019 Historical EBITDA Multiples Since 2019

20.0x 20.0x
5-Year Median: 13.1x

16.0x 16.0x 14.8x 15.1x

13.3x 5-Year Median: 10.3x 13.1x13.5x
12.3x 5-Year Median: 6.6x
12.0x 12.0x 11.3x
10.6x 10.3x 5-Year Median: 6.1x

8.5x 8.6x
8.1x 8.1x
8.0x 8.0x 6.7x 6.6x 7.0x 6.9x
6.1x 6.1x
5.4x 5.4x 5.2x
5.3x 5.0x
4.0x 4.0x

0.0x 0.0x
Automotive OEMs Automotive Aftermarket Automotive Dealers Automotive Suppliers

FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 LTM as of 3/31/24

Note: Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made in the Automotive Valuation Deck on pages 3-7
Source: S&P Capital IQ as of March 31, 2024, and company filings
14
Historical M&A Activity by Quarter
M&A Activity
Quarterly M&A activity in the automotive sector has declined over the last two years. As interest rates increased throughout 2022 and 2023, volume fell from 29 deals
closed in Q1 2022 to only 11 in Q1 2024.

On a yearly basis, deal activity slowed in 2020 due to concerns from COVID-19, but volume bounced back in 2021 and the first half of 2022. In 2023, volume fell to
only 60 transactions closed, the lowest total in the last decade.7

Automotive Industry Quarterly M&A Automotive Industry Yearly M&A

35 140
30 122
30 29 120

25 24 24 24 100
23 23
22 22 88 88
21 81
20 19 80 75
18
17 17
16
60
15 14 14
60
12 12
11 11
10 40

5 20 11

0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1 2024

Note: All transactions with available target financials closed in the respective time period
Source: S&P Capital IQ
15
Notable Industry M&A Transactions
M&A Activity

has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by

Impero Jersey Corp.

Ltd.

Mar. 2024 Feb. 2024 Dec. 2023 Dec. 2023 Oct. 2023 Oct. 2023

Digital Mobility Business

has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by

Oct. 2022 Sep. 2022 Jul. 2022 Jul. 2022 Jul. 2022 Jul. 2022

Iber-Oleff Brasil
Fuel and Retail Business
has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by
has been acquired by

May 2023 May 2023 May 2023 May 2023 Apr. 2023 Apr. 2023

Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners
16
Select Kroll Automotive Transaction Experience

Fairness Opinion Solvency Opinion Solvency Opinion Solvency Opinion

Fenix Parts, Inc. has been acquired American Trailer World Corp., a Airxcel, Inc., a portfolio company of JHT Holdings, Inc. has completed a
by Stellex Capital Management LP. portfolio company of Bain Capital, L Catterton, has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization
LP, has completed a leveraged comprehensive reorganization transaction.
dividend recapitalization transaction.
transaction.

Financial advisor to the board of directors Financial advisor to the board of directors
of Fenix Parts Inc. of JHT Holdings, Inc.

Fairness Opinion Fairness Opinion Fairness Opinion Solvency Opinion

Daimler AG (XTRA:DAI) has settled eHi Car Services Limited was SORL Auto Parts, Inc. KAR Auction Services, Inc.
two arbitration matters with the acquired by a consortium of (NasdaqGM:SORL) has been (NYSE:KAR) has completed the
Federal Republic of Germany investors including its chairman, acquired by an insider-led spin-off of IAA, Inc.
related to its JV interest in Toll MBK Partners Fund IV, L.P., and consortium in a going private
Collect GmbH. Baring Private Equity Asia Limited. transaction.

Financial advisor to the special

Financial advisor to the board of Financial advisor to the special committee of independent directors of
management of Daimler AG and Daimler committee of independent directors of the board of directors of SORL Auto Financial advisor to the board of directors
Financial Services AG. eHi Car Services Limited. Parts, Inc. of KAR Auction Services, Inc.

Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners
17
Select Kroll Automotive Transaction Experience

Fairness Opinion Solvency Opinion Solvency Opinion Fairness Opinion

Atlas Crest Investment Corp. Cap-Con Automotive Technologies Chassis Brakes International B.V., a Johnson Controls Inc. has sold its
entered into a business combination Ltd., a portfolio company of The portfolio company of KPS Capital Power Solutions business to
agreement with Archer Aviation. Jordan Company, has completed a Partners, LP, has completed a Brookfield Business Partners L.P.
leveraged dividend recapitalization leveraged dividend recapitalization
transaction. transaction.

Financial advisor to the board of directors

Financial advisor to the board of directors of Cap-Con Automotive Technologies Financial advisor to the board of directors Financial advisor to the board of directors
of Atlas Crest Investment Corp. Ltd. of Chassis Brakes International B.V. of Johnson Controls Inc.

Solvency Opinion Solvency Opinion Fairness Opinion Solvency Opinion

AxleTech International, LLC, a Chassix Inc. has completed a UQM Technologies Inc. has sold Tekfor Global Holdings Ltd., a
portfolio company of The Carlyle leveraged dividend recapitalization newly issued common shares to portfolio company of Kohlberg
Group, has completed a leveraged transaction. Hybrid Kinetic Group Ltd. Kravis Roberts & Co., has
dividend recapitalization completed an internal restructuring.
transaction.

Financial advisor to the board of directors Financial advisor to the board of directors Financial advisor to the board of directors Financial advisor to the board of directors
of AxleTech International, LLC. of Chassix Inc. of UQM Technologies Inc. of Tekfor Holding Germany GmbH.

Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners
18
Sources
1. “Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.” ING. February 23, 14. Domonoske, Camila. “EVs won over early adopters, but mainstream buyers
2023. aren’t along for the ride yet.” NPR. February 7, 2024.
2. “S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024.” S&P Global. 15. “A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to
December 14, 2023. Estimates from Kelley Blue Book.” Cox Automotive. January 9, 2024.
3. Bekker, Henk. “2023 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales.” Best- 16. Lee, Medora. “Here’s why people aren’t buying EVs in spite of price cuts and
Selling Cars. January 19, 2024. tax breaks.” USA Today. November 14, 2023.
4. “China sales surge in December and 2023.” Just Auto. January 12, 2024. 17. Marx, Paris. “What happened to EVs?” Business Insider. January 3, 2024.
5. Pontes, Jose. “25% of New Car Sales in China Were 100% Electric in 2023!” 18. “Cox Automotive Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2023 Up
CleanTechnica. February 2024. More Than 11% Year Over Year, as General Motors Retains Top Spot,
6. “New car registrations; +13.9% in 2023; battery electric 14.6% market Hyundai Motor Group Jumps Past Stellantis.” Cox Automotive. December
share.” European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). January 27, 2023.
18, 2024. 19. “2023 U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings – Every Vehicle Ranked by Sales
7. S&P Capital IQ. April 2023. Volume.” GoodCarBadCar. March 2024.
8. “Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates – Historical Data.” 20. Jin, Qian. “Top-Selling car brands in January 2024 in China – VW overtook
Argonne National Laboratory. April 2024. BYD to become No. 1.” CarNewsChina. February 8, 2024.
9. Bigelow, Pete. “Air mobility meets autos: Stellantis, Toyota, Hyundai bring 21. Dnistran, Iulian. “VW, China’s Long-Time Top-Selling Car Brand, Was
manufacturing muscle to new market.” Automotive News. January 30, 2024. Dethroned by BYD in 2023.” InsideEVs. January 25, 2024.
10. MND Staff. “Car sales in Mexico reached highest level since 2018.” Mexico 22. Winton, Neil. “Europe’s Auto Profitability To Slip In 2024, But Watch Out
News Daily. January 5, 2024. For 2025.” Forbes. February 14, 2024.
11. Gearino, Dan. “U.S. Electric Vehicles Sales Are Poised to Rise A Lot in 2024,
Despite What You May Have Heard.” Inside Climate News. February 8,
2024.
12. Dugan, Kevin T. “A Once Unthinkable Question: Could Electric-Vehicle Sales
Decline This Year?” Intelligencer. February 14, 2024.
13. Financial Post Staff. “Top headlines: EVs pile up at U.S. dealer as inventories
hit record high.” Financial Post. December 15, 2023.

19
For more information, please contact:
Mark Kwilosz Stephen Burt David Althoff Jeffrey McNamara Dr. Howard E. Johnson
Head of North American Global Head of M&A Advisory Global Head of Diversified Managing Director, Diversified Managing Director, Canadian
Automotive M&A Advisory . Industrial M&A Industrials M&A M&A Advisory
Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Toronto
+1 312 697 4677 +1 312 697 4620 +1 312 697 4625 +1 312 697 4638 +1 416 597 4500
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Andreas Stoecklin Dafydd Evans Alexandre Pierantoni David Lu

Head of Corporate Finance, Managing Director, M&A Managing Director, M&A Managing Director, M&A
EMEA Advisory Advisory Advisory
Frankfurt London Sao Paolo Shanghai
+49 697 191 8466 +44 207 089 4850 +55 11 3192 8103 +86 21 6032 0608
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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