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Seismic vulnerability and risk in the Himalayan township of Mussoorie,

Uttarakhand, India

Article in Current Science · August 2010

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 RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
volatilization from black shale materials when processed Seismic vulnerability and risk in the
in the presence of oxygen. They have also found that in
Au-bearing black shale ores, PGE are present as organo- Himalayan township of Mussoorie,
metallic compounds and have suggested the use of Uttarakhand, India
selected fluoroxidants for the total and quantitative oxida-
tion of all the Au and PGE, for simultaneous destruction Piyoosh Rautela*, Girish Chandra Joshi and
of the organic matrix and to avoid the loss of Au and
Bhupendra Bhaisora
PGE during open-system digestion procedures. Such
Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre,
specificity of black shales in relation to methods of PGE
Department of Disaster Management, Uttarakhand Secretariat,
and Au analyses should be taken into account in the esti- Rajpur Road, Dehradun 248 001, India
mation of their PGE–Au potential, as well as in creation
of extraction technologies. More work has to be carried Rapid visual screening technique has been resorted to
out before suggesting a better analytical method for such for assessing seismic vulnerability and risk in the
type of materials. Himalayan township of Mussoorie that falls in Zone
IV of the Earthquake Zoning Map of India. Damage
during an earthquake in this zone is expected to reach
1. Reimann, P. de C., Chemical Elements in the Environment, MSK intensity VIII. A total of 3344 structures in 11
Springer, Berlin, 1998, pp. 48–51. residential wards of the town were surveyed in the
2. Jiang Shao-Yong, Jing-Hong Yang, Hong Fei Ling, Yong-Quan
field. Data collected in the field were analysed under
Chen, Hong-Zhen Feng, Kui Dong Zhao and Pei, Ni, Palaeo-
geogr., Palaecoclimatol., Palaeoecol., 2007, 254, 217–228.
GIS environment which suggests that a total of 615
3. Pasava J., Ore Geol. Rev., 1993, 8, 425–445. (18%) buildings show high probability of Grade 5
4. Khanchuk, A. I., Plusnina, L. P., Molchanov, V. P. and Medvedev, damage and very high probability of Grade 4 damage
E. I., Tikhookeanskaya Geol., 2007, 26(1), 70. class. The economic loss likely to be incurred is esti-
5. Khanchuk, A. I., Molchanov, V. P., Medvedev, E. I. and Plusnina, mated to be of the order Rs 238.85 crore in the town-
L. P., In Nanogeochemistry of Gold. In Proceedings of the Sympo- ship of Mussoorie alone. Modest estimates suggest that
sium (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok), 2008, pp. 31–35 (in Russian). 369 persons might sustain grievous injuries in this
6. Yu, G. and Karabtsov, A., In Nanogeochemistry of Gold. In event. The study highlights the fact that some of the
Proceedings of the Symposium (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok), 2008, lifeline buildings are under severe threat and are re-
pp. 122–129 (in Russian).
quired to be retrofitted or replaced on priority basis.
7. Distler, V. V. et al., Geol. Ore Deposits, 1996, 38, 413 (Geol.
Rudn. Mestor-ozhd, 1996, 38, 467).
8. Razvozzhaeva, E. A., Spiridonov, A. M. and Tsykhanskii, V. D., Keywords: Damage grade, rapid visual screening, risk,
Geol. Geofiz., 2002, 43, 286. seismicity, vulnerability.
9. Balaram, V., Mathur, R., Banakar, V. K., Hein, J. R., Rao, C. R.
M., Rao, T. G. and Dasaram, B., Indian J. Mar. Sci., 2006, 35(1),
SUBDUCTION of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian
7–16.
10. Balaram, V. et al., At. Spectrosc., 1997, 18, 17–22. plate has resulted in the consumption of the intervening
11. Gurskaya, L. I., In Platinum Mineralization of the Black-Shale oceanic plate and eventual collision of the alien land
Type and Criteria of its Prediction, VSEGEI, St Petersburg, 2000 masses. This event caused deformation, upliftment,
(in Russian). metamorphism and shearing of the sediments deposited in
12. Varshall, G. M., Velyukhanova, T. K. and Korochantsev, A. V.,
the hitherto intervening ocean basin together with the
Geokhimiya, 1995, 8, 1191.
13. Mitkin, V. N., Galizky, A. A. and Korda, T. M., Geostand. Newsl. rock mass in the vicinity of the collision front. This re-
J. Geostand. Geoanal., 2000, 24, 227–240. sulted in the evolution of the Himalayan mountain chain.
Since the collision around 55 Ma, India has been under-
thrusting at a rate of 45–50 mm/yr (refs 1 and 2). GPS
Received 27 October 2009; revised accepted 8 July 2010
measurements indicate that India is moving northeast at a
convergence rate of 55 mm/yr, of which 18–22 mm/yr is
accommodated within the Himalayas3 and the remaining
convergence is taken up further north in Tibet and Asia4,5.
The ongoing northward convergence of India produces
active deformation in the Himalayas, Tibet and adjoining
areas and is responsible for seismic activity in the entire
region.
The Himalayan mountain arc together with the adjoin-
ing Shillong plateau and western Assam has witnessed
four great earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.0) in the previous 110
years, i.e. 1897 western Assam earthquake, 1905 Kangra

*For correspondence. (e-mail: [email protected])

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 99, NO. 4, 25 AUGUST 2010 521

RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
earthquake, 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake and 1950 east- Mussoorie is located in close proximity to the Main
ern Assam (Arunachal) earthquake. Around 18,000 per- Boundary Thrust (MBT) that is a north–northeast dipping
sons were killed in the 1905 Kangra earthquake6. Arya7,8 thrust along which the Lesser Himalayan rocks are thrust
suggests that around 80,000 persons might be killed if a over the Siwaliks. It falls in Zone IV of the Earthquake
similar earthquake occurs during daytime. Authenticity of Zoning Map of India9 and has a population of 26,069 (ref.
this projection has been verified by the toll of the 2005 10). The population of the town is however highly vari-
Muzaffarabad earthquake and clearly reflects increasing able and during the peak tourist season (from April/May
seismic vulnerability of the region due to growth in popu- to September/October) the same witnesses manifold
lation and infrastructure. increase. The built environment in Mussoorie is particu-
The entire Himalayan terrain falls in Zones IV and V larly old and the large influx of tourists to the township
of the Earthquake Zoning Map of India9 and is routinely warrants seismic vulnerability assessment and adoption
subjected to earthquakes. Uttarakhand has witnessed two of suitable mitigative measures for reducing human mis-
moderate magnitude earthquakes in the recent past eries and toll in the event of an earthquake in the area.
(Uttarkashi earthquake of 1991 and Chamoli earthquake Detailed seismic vulnerability evaluation is a technically
of 1999). The losses in these events were estimated to be complex and expensive procedure and can only be perfor-
Rs 243 crore and Rs 339 crore respectively. The state is med on a limited number of buildings. It is therefore
however located in the seismic gap of the 1935 and 1905 important to use simpler procedures that help in rapid
great earthquakes. This enhances seismic risk in the region. evaluation of the vulnerability profile of different types
Seismic risk is a direct function of the state of the built of building. More complex evaluation procedures can
environment or vulnerability of the building stock. thus be limited to the most critical buildings11.
Assessment of the vulnerability of the built environment Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) is one such cost-
is therefore important for undertaking any seismic risk effective tool for identifying highly vulnerable structures
reduction exercise. This is all the more important in the that can subsequently be surveyed in detail for appropri-
urban areas that have a concentration of both infrastruc- ate mitigative action. RVS was first proposed in the US
ture and population. Such an exercise is intended to pave in 1988 and was further modified in 2002 to incorporate
the way for effective mitigative planning through appro- latest technological advancements and lessons from
priate structural and non-structural measures. earthquake disasters in the 1990s. Though originally
The present study focuses on the seismic vulnerability developed for typical constructions in the US, this proce-
and risk evaluation of the Himalayan township of Mus- dure has been widely used in many other countries after
soorie. With fairly good road, train and air connectivity suitable modifications. The most important feature of this
and being located in close vicinity to the state capital procedure is that it permits vulnerability assessment based
(Dehradun), Mussoorie is a famous Himalayan tourist on ‘walking around’ the building by a trained evaluator.
destination situated in the Lesser Himalayas (Figure 1). The evaluation procedure and system is compatible with

Figure 1. Location map of the study area. (Left) Uttarakhand. (Right) Earthquake Zoning Map of Uttarakhand and the position of Mussoorie.

522 CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 99, NO. 4, 25 AUGUST 2010

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GIS-based city database and also permits the use of col- bability of Grade 4 damage has been accounted for
lected building information for a variety of other planning together with average value of the contents therein. Both
and mitigation purposes. the built area of the structures and the number of floors
RVS method is designed to be implemented without therein have been accounted for while determining the
performing any structural calculations and utilizes a scor- cost of reconstruction and the building usage has been
ing system that requires the evaluator to identify the taken into account while calculating the value of the con-
primary structural lateral load-resisting system together tents therein.
with the building attributes that modify the seismic per- Different buildings have different types of content and
formance expected for this lateral load-resisting system. therefore in the present exercise economic worth of the
The inspection, data collection and decision-making pro- contents likely to be lost in a seismic event is estimated
cess typically take place at the building site, and it is to be a function of the replacement value of the struc-
expected to take around 30 min for each building. For the tures. For residential buildings the content value is taken
actual data collection using the RVS methodology, a as 50% of the replacement cost, whereas for schools,
modified version of the FEMA-154/ATC-21 based data commercial establishments (shops), mixed (shops and
collection sheet was used12. Taking note of the seasonal residential), hotels, hospitals, religious and office build-
variation in occupancy, provision was made to account ings the economic worth of the contents likely to be lost
for peak and lean occupancy of the buildings. In order to is taken to be 25%, 200%, 100%, 25%, 400%, 10% and
take the relief of the area into account broad estimation of 50% of the cost of replacement of the structures respec-
the slope into three categories (< 15°, 15°–30° and > 30°) tively.
was also included. Parameters like building identification IKONOS imagery was used for mapping the structures
number, ward number, owner’s name, roof type, accessi- and the database was prepared using ARC INFO GIS
bility and comment section were added for a broader in- software that was also used for analysis and data correla-
formation spectrum and to make the analysis easier. tion.
When exposed to a particular earthquake intensity, dif- A total of 3344 buildings falling in 11 residential wards
ferent building types experience different levels of damage of Mussoorie township were surveyed using modified
depending on their inherent characteristics. Damage- FEMA-154/ATC-21 data collection form12. Among these,
ability is defined as the level of damage that is likely to the oldest was constructed in 1836 and only 282 were
be incurred in a seismic event. Sinha and Goyal11 have constructed in the pre-1900 period, whereas 913 were
developed a methodology of correlating RVS scores of constructed during 1901–50, 962 in 1951–84 and 881 in
the surveyed structures in different seismic zones with the post-1984 periods (Figure 2). Most surveyed struc-
probable seismic losses utilizing the damage grades pro- tures were observed to be low-rise; 1135 being single
vided by European Macroseismic Scale13 (EMS-98). storeyed and 1957 being double or triple storeyed (Figure
They have suggested only three hazard zones for RVS 2). As many as 30 buildings, however, were observed to be
studies, corresponding to low (Zone II), moderate (Zone more than five-storeyed. Construction (94%) was obser-
III) and high seismic risk (Zones IV and V), as more pre- ved to be unconfined rubble masonry (URM), mostly
cise categorization between Zones IV and V is not envis- stone and brick masonry with slate/CGI roofing. The
aged to enable better assessment of structural built environment of the town can thus be classified as
vulnerability using RVS procedure due to the influence of being non-engineered.
a large number of other factors on the building perform-
ance in intense ground-shaking conditions. The same
methodology has been used in the present study to assess
the likely seismogenic damages.
EMS-98 recommends five damage grades13. Among
these, Grades 4 and 5 are important for vulnerability and
risk assessment as these have the potential of threatening
the lives of the occupants and also causing damage to the
contents therein. Grade 4 or very heavy damage grade
denotes heavy structural damage and very heavy non-
structural damage and is characterized by serious failure
of walls (gaps in walls) and partial structural failure of
roofs and floors. Grade 5 or destruction denotes very
heavy structural damage and is characterized by total or
near total collapse of the structure.
For translating the seismogenic losses into economic
value the cost of reconstruction of the structures falling in
high probability of Grade 5 damage and very high pro- Figure 2. Changing building elevation trend in Mussoorie over time.

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 99, NO. 4, 25 AUGUST 2010 523

RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of the buildings falling under five damage classes. Damage Grade N denotes high
probability of Grade (N) damage and very high probability of Grade (N – 1) class.

grade; 114 and 156 respectively. It is interesting to note

that most buildings falling in the high damage grade were
low rise; 30% being single-storeyed and 61% being two
or three-storeyed. Only 58 buildings falling in more than
three-storey class showed high probability of Grade 5
damage and very high probability of Grade 4 damage.
The total built-up area of the buildings falling in high
probability of Grade 5 damage and very high probability
of Grade 4 damage class in Mussoorie was calculated to
be 296,974 m2 (3,196,598 ft2). At the standard rate of
Rs 450 per ft2 the replacement cost of these buildings is
estimated to be Rs 143.85 crore. This however is a gross
underestimate as it does not include the cost of demoli-
tion of the structures and the cost of restoration of struc-
Figure 4. Distribution of buildings falling under different damage tures falling in other damage grade classes. Based upon
grade classes with respect to their period of construction. the type of usage of the building, it is estimated that con-
tents worth Rs 92.00 crore would be lost in these struc-
tures. Total direct economic loss of Rs 235.85 crore is
Analysis of the data collected for the surveyed struc- thus estimated to be incurred due to damage to the sur-
tures on the basis of the methodology based on FEMA veyed structures in Mussoorie in the event of any seismic
154 as given by Sinha and Goyal11 shows that 18% of the activity causing damage reaching intensity VIII on the
surveyed buildings fall in high probability of Grade 5 MSK scale.
damage and very high probability of Grade 4 damage in On the basis of data on seismogenic losses in India and
the case of damage reaching intensity VIII on MSK scale China, average death rate was estimated to vary between
(Figure 3). Majority of the buildings falling in this dam- 6% and 18% of the occupants of the collapsed houses. In
age class were reportedly constructed in the pre-1950 the present study death rate of 10% is being assumed. The
phase; 21% in the pre-1900 and 52% between 1901 and same assumption has been made by Arya7. On an average
1950. Only 6% of the buildings constructed in the post- six persons reside in every building in Mussoorie (Census
1984 phase showed high probability of Grade 5 damage of India, 2001) during the lean season. The population
and very high probability of Grade 4 damage (Figure 4). under threat would thus be approximately 3690 and
This shows growing compliance of the seismic safety expected casualties (calculated on the basis of 10%)
norms with the passage of time. Wards 5 and 7 have would be around 369 (for high probability of Grade 5
maximum number of buildings falling in the high damage damage and very high probability of Grade 4 damage).
524 CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 99, NO. 4, 25 AUGUST 2010
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The expected casualties could, however, vary depending adopt these initiatives. Legislative measures, however,
upon other factors like time of earthquake, month, etc. need to be enacted to enforce seismic safety-related pro-
An earthquake is a harsh reality for any tectonically visions in all public buildings.
active region. Constraints in earthquake prediction The study brings out the fact that majority of the struc-
amplify the importance of effective planning, prepared- tures falling in high damage grade are low-rise; 91%
ness and mitigative action for saving lives and property. being up to three storeys high. This might lead one to
Assessment of seismic risk and vulnerability is a neces- conclude that particular care is being taken while design-
sary precondition for realistic planning and effective ing and constructing taller structures. This is, however
mitigation. RVS, together with GIS and remote-sensing not true and is clarified by the fact that only 16% of the
tools, has been utilized in the present study for assessing single-storeyed buildings fall in high probability of Grade
the seismic vulnerability of Mussoorie that falls in Zone 5 damage and very high probability of Grade 4 damage
IV of the Earthquake Zoning Map of India. The study class, whereas 19% of two- or three-storeyed buildings
attempted to collect data pertaining to all the existing and 27% of more than three-storeyed buildings fall in this
structures and a total of 3344 structures were actually damage class. It thus becomes clear that the principles of
mapped in the field. Majority of the surveyed buildings of seismic safety are being ignored even while constructing
the township were observed to be low rise URM struc- multi-storeyed buildings, which is a cause of serious con-
tures constructed in the post-1950 period. Among the cern. The message therefore needs to be propagated that
surveyed buildings, 615 showed high probability of all the buildings are required to be constructed with
Grade 5 damage and very high probability of Grade 4 particular care regarding the seismic safety norms and
damage in the event of a seismic activity reaching inten- standards. Appropriate changes in the techno-legal
sity VIII on MSK scale. Most of these buildings were regime are therefore required to be introduced together
constructed in the pre-1950 phase with only 6% being with strict compliance of the same. The present practice
constructed post-1984. This shows growing awareness of compounding needs to be discontinued immediately as
and compliance of the seismic safety norms with the pas- financial penalty alone, without corrective structural
sage of time. measures, cannot guarantee adequate performance from a
Fourteen hospitals in Mussoorie were also covered building that is constructed defying the standards and
under the study. Most of them were very old, low rise safety norms. Moreover, one unsafe structure is likely to
structures with sloping tin roofs. The study indicates that jeopardize the safety of a number of adequately built
half of the surveyed hospitals are likely to incur serious structures in its vicinity.
seismic losses (high probability of Grade 5 damage and Direct economic losses likely to be incurred have been
very high probability of Grade 4 damage), whereas the estimated to be of the order of Rs 235.85 crore in the
essential services in the other five falling in high pro- township of Mussoorie alone. This, however, does not
bability of Grade 4 damage and very high probability of include losses likely to be incurred to public facilities and
Grade 3 damage class are likely to be disrupted due to infrastructure. The estimated economic loss-related
heavy non-structural losses. Even though the economic figures can be utilized for making an appropriate mitiga-
loss likely to be incurred to the hospital buildings in the tion strategy as also for putting forth a case for compul-
event of a major seismic event is not significant, disrup- sory earthquake insurance of the structures.
tion of healthcare facilities would immensely aggravate The study suggests that 369 persons are likely to sus-
the post-disaster trauma of the victims and add to the tain life-threatening injuries in Mussoorie alone. This
human death toll. Intangible losses thus emanating from estimate seems staggering, but is modest as no seismic
disruption of this important service on the aftermath of event is likely to affect one particular habitation alone.
any disaster would be high and are hard to assess. A The realistic economic and life-loss figures might well be
strategy for immediate detailed vulnerability assessment manifold. Moreover, recent research indicates likelihood
of all the lifeline structures followed by retrofitting or of a major seismic activity in the region3,14–17. The magni-
replacing these structures is thus recommended. tude of the losses in the event of these predictions can
Most construction in Mussoorie dates back to a time well be beyond imagination and this warrants gearing up
when concepts of seismic safety were not well-develo- efforts for seismic risk reduction.
ped. It would, however, not be practical to recommend
the replacement of these structures. Therefore, it is 1. Besse, J. and Courtillot, V., Palaeogeographic maps of the conti-
important to undertake a massive awareness drive to nents bordering the Indian Ocean since the early Jurassic. J. Geo-
popularize retrofitting measures among the masses. Peo- phys. Res. B, 1988, 93, 1791–1808.
ple routinely undertake maintenance of their buildings 2. Dewey, J. F., Cande, S. and Pitman, W. C., Tectonic evolution of
the India/Eurasia collision zone. Ecolgae Geol. Helv., 1989, 82,
and if made aware and provided implementable techno-
717–734.
logical support, they would be willing to dovetail retrofit- 3. Bilham, R., Larson, L. and Jeffrey, F., GPS measurements of the
ting with building maintenance. Tax benefits and soft present day convergence across the Nepal Himalaya. Nature,
loans for this cause can further motivate the people to 1997, 386, 61–64.

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 99, NO. 4, 25 AUGUST 2010 525

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Probabilistic seismic hazard map of NW Himalaya and its adjoin- 16. Bilham, R., Gaur, V. K. and Molnar, P., Himalayan seismic haz-
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9. Indian Standard (IS): 1893, Part 1, Creteria for earthquake resis-
tant design of structures. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. We thank N. S. Napalchyal, Chief Secre-
2002. tary, Uttarakhand and S. K. Muttoo, Additional Chief Secretary, Gov-
10. Population profiles (India, States and Union Territories). Office of ernment of Uttarakhand for guidance, support and encouragement. We
the Registrar General, India, New Delhi, 2004. also thank Prof. Sudhir K. Jain (Director, IIT Gandhinagar), Amir Ali
11. Sinha, R. and Goyal, A., A national policy for seismic vulnerabil- Khan (NIDM, New Delhi) and the two anonymous reviewers for criti-
ity assessment of buildings and procedure for rapid visual screen- cally going through the manuscript and suggesting improvements.
ing of buildings for potential seismic vulnerability. Report of the J. Radhakrishnan, G. Padmanabhan and Abha Mishra (UNDP, India)
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, are thanked for extending support during the study. Cooperation
Bombay, 2004, p. 12; http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/~rsinha/Vulner- extended by the residents of Mussoorie and the officials of the Mus-
ability_Assessment.pdf soorie Nagar Palika is duly acknowledged. Our colleagues at DMMC
12. FEMA 154, Rapid visual screening of buildings for potential seis- are thanked for their ideas and support. Financial support from the Dis-
mic hazards. ATC, 1988 (updated 2002). aster Risk Management Programme of the Ministry of Home Affairs,
13. Grünthal, G. and Levret, A. (eds), L’Echelle Macrosismique Eu- Government of India, and United Nations Development Programme,
ropéenne, European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98), Cahiers India is acknowledged.
du Centre Européen de Géodynamique et de Séismologie 19, Cen-
tre Européen de Géodynamique et de Séismologie, Luxembourg,
2001, p. 103. Received 1 October 2009; revised accepted 15 July 2010

526 CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 99, NO. 4, 25 AUGUST 2010

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