Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2024 FINAL
Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2024 FINAL
Economy Asia
Pacific 2024
The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobile
ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation
foundational to positive business environments and
societal change. Our vision is to unlock the full power of
connectivity so that people, industry and society thrive.
Representing mobile operators and organisations across
the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries, the GSMA
delivers for its members across three broad pillars:
Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions,
and Outreach. This activity includes advancing policy,
tackling today’s biggest societal challenges, underpinning
the technology and interoperability that make mobile
work, and providing the world’s largest platform to
convene the mobile ecosystem at the MWC and M360
series of events.
www.gsmaintelligence.com
1. People covered by a mobile broadband network but do not yet subscribe to a mobile internet service
Executive summary 2 / 50
Key trends shaping
the mobile ecosystem
Executive summary 3 / 50
Satellites and NTNs: momentum GenAI: operators seek revenue-
builds behind aerial connectivity generating opportunities
Due to the geographical make-up of several Operators across Asia Pacific are harnessing the
countries in Asia Pacific, aerial connectivity power of generative AI (genAI) to drive internal
will play an important role in realising universal transformations and seize new revenue streams
connectivity. From archipelagos and rainforests through AI investment. GenAI has applications
to deserts and mountain ranges, Asia Pacific is in various domains – such as customer service,
home to some of the most challenging terrains sales, marketing and code development – offering
for terrestrial networks. As a result, there has immediate opportunities. Moreover, leveraging
historically been significant interest in aerial AI for network enhancement remains a priority
solutions and the opportunity they offer to for operators. Exploring new revenue streams,
help extend connectivity to hard-to-reach regional operators are investing in AI startups and
locations. This interest has been heightened by organisations while developing their own large
the emergence of low Earth orbit (LEO) and language models (LLMs). Tailored LLMs make it
high-altitude platform station (HAPS) solutions. easier for operators to deploy high-quality genAI
Importantly, telecoms operators across the models swiftly and efficiently, helping them to
region are actively engaged in the evolving aerial accelerate AI-enabled transformation.
connectivity market, mostly through partnerships
and investments.
Consumer trust: stakeholders take
steps to enhance online safety
With the rise of online threats targeting individuals
and enterprises, there is a risk that consumer
trust in digital services will erode. Meanwhile, the
proliferation of advanced AI tools, notably genAI
applications, adds a new dimension to the threat
landscape by potentially enabling new types
of attacks and making existing ones harder to
detect. Such attacks can have a profound impact
on victims, including financial losses and a mental
toll, resulting in a loss of trust in digital platforms.
While governments and digital ecosystem players
have taken steps to combat online threats, the task
of maintaining trust must be viewed as a shared
responsibility between these stakeholders, as
opposed to the sole responsibility of any single
group.
Executive summary 4 / 50
Policies for growth and innovation
For the mobile industry to advance and deliver The ITU’s World Radiocommunication Conference
on digital transformation ambitions, the policy 2023 (WRC-23) opened the doors to a new era of
and regulatory environment requires an approach connectivity and laid the spectrum foundations
that supports a conducive environment for rapid for mobile to progress into 5G-Advanced and 6G.
growth and innovation. Policies that will have Importantly, WRC-23 identified 6 GHz (6.425–
a key role towards this objective include those 7.125 GHz) for mobile use by countries in every
that promote investment in networks, reduce ITU Region (EMEA, CIS, the Americas and Asia
taxation burdens, promote ease of doing business Pacific) and the conditions for its use have been
by reducing onerous compliance costs, improve agreed in the ITU’s Radio Regulations. Countries
efficiency, and foster inclusivity and online trust in Asia Pacific can now take advantage of the
and safety. Similarly, as demand for high-speed, harmonisation of 6 GHz that was achieved at
high-quality mobile connectivity continues to grow, WRC-23 and begin developing national plans to
regulators and policymakers should review current assign the band. With 6 GHz, mobile operators
policies to identify those that create unnecessary can meet the growth in 5G traffic demand in a
barriers for mobile operators, hindering their ability practical, cost-effective and environmentally
to invest without necessarily having any positive friendly way using existing 5G macro sites.
impact on consumer welfare.
Executive summary 5 / 50
The Mobile Economy
Asia Pacific
Unique Mobile
mobile internet
subscribers users
2023
1.8bn
63% penetration rate*
2023
1.4bn
51% penetration rate*
2030
2.1bn
70% penetration rate*
2030
1.8bn
61% penetration rate*
CAGR
2023-2030 2.1% CAGR
2023-2030 3.0%
*Percentage of population *Percentage of population
connections
(excluding licensed cellular IoT)
2023
70%
2023
2.7bn
97% penetration rate*
2030
50%
2030
3.1bn 5G Percentage of connections
(excluding licensed cellular IoT)
10%
106% penetration rate*
2023
1.8%
45%
CAGR
2023-2030
2030
*Percentage of population
Smartphones Licensed
Percentage of connections
cellular
IoT connections
2023
78%
2030
94% 2023
144m
Operator
2030
270m
revenues and
investment
Mobile's
2023
$197m
Total revenues
contribution
to GDP
2030
$227bn
Total revenues
2023
$880bn
5.3% of GDP
$271bn
$1tn
Operator capex
for the period
2030
2023–2030:
Public Employment
funding
2023
2023
9m jobs
$90bn Directly supported by the
mobile ecosystem
12+8+7010J 2+2+5046J
10% 12% 2% 2% 2023 63%
8% 2030 70%
2023 2030
45% Smartphone adoption
50%
70% 2023 78%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 94%
32+17+510J 5+2+7221J
5%
21%
2% 2023 56%
51% 32% 2030 69%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
72%
17% 2023 56%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 84%
13+3+7212J 2+1+4948J
12% 13% 2% <1% 2023 71%
49%
3%
2030 78%
2023 2030
49% Smartphone adoption
72% 2023 80%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 95%
5+94+1J 1+67+32J
1%5% 1% 2023 66%
32% 2030 77%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
67%
94% 2023 87%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 94%
32+5+63J 7+1+839J
9%
7% <1% 2023 41%
32% 2030 55%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
63% 5% 84%
2023 63%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 80%
3+11+806J 1+2+5344J
6% 3% 11% 1% 2% 2023 73%
46%
2030 78%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
51%
80% 2023 86%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 92%
2. The GSMA Leading Nations engagement (comprising Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines) seeks to accelerate the growth of the digital economy
and advance the mobile industry’s sustainability by lobbying for regulatory modernisation with relevant stakeholders.
Executive summary 8 / 50
Developed 5G markets3
Australia Technology mix* Subscriber penetration
1+54+45J 6+94+J
1% 6% 2023 86%
45% 2030 88%
94%
2023 2030
53% Smartphone adoption
2023 89%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 94%
2+61+37J 8+92+J
2% 8% 2023 89%
37%
2030 90%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
61%
92% 2023 75%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 94%
1+5+7222J 5+95+J
1% 5% 5% 2023 85%
22%
72% 2030 88%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
95% 2023 90%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 94%
2+3+6629J 1+3+96J
2% 3% 1% 3% 2023 90%
29%
2030 91%
2023 2030
Smartphone adoption
66% 96% 2023 91%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 96%
2+49+J 1+5+94J
<1% 5%
2% 2023 95%
49%
2030 96%
2023 2030
49% 95% Smartphone adoption
2023 83%
2G 3G 4G 5G 2030 96%
Executive summary 9 / 50
01
The mobile industry
in numbers
By the end of 2023, Asia Pacific has experienced significant growth
in internet connectivity levels in recent years. The
population in Asia
the last decade to over 1.4 billion. Growth during
this period was largely driven by the expansion of
Pacific subscribed to
mobile broadband networks, with the coverage
gap now under 2% in most markets across the
region.
mobile internet The usage gap has also narrowed on aggregate
Figure 1
Coverage gap
Asia Pacific: mobile internet connectivity in select markets, 2023 Usage gap
1% 1% 1% 2% 3%
7%
11%
20% 20% 19%
32%
46%
49%
63%
58%
93%
89%
80% 80%
65%
53%
49%
35%
23%
Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Japan Malaysia South Korea Pakistan Singapore
4. “Japan looks to bridge digital divide between young and old”, The Japan Times, June 2023
dominant
Korea). In countries that form the second wave of
deployments, notably India and Thailand, rapid
5G network expansion has led to quickly rising
technology for the adoption.
Figure 2
Asia Pacific: mobile adoption by technology
Percentage of total connections
80%
70%
60%
50% 4G 50%
5G 45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
3G 2%
0%
2G 2%
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Asia Pacific
on average, meaning these markets will be among
the global 5G leaders. However, the rest of the
countries will be on
region will be on the other end of the spectrum,
with 40% adoption on average. With nearly 80%
global 5G spectrum
Figure 3
2024–2030 increase
5G adoption 2023
Percentage of total connections
5G connections
Leading 5G markets (2030)
Emerging 5G markets
quadruple between
subscribers migrate to 5G, average mobile
data traffic per smartphone will increase and is
Figure 4
Mobile data traffic per connection
GB per month
India 17 69 4.1×
Global 13 48 3.7×
connections in Asia
a CAGR of 9%. Japan leads in the region and will
account for just under 40% of total connections
Figure 5
Rest of Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific: number of licensed cellular IoT connections
India
Million South Korea
Japan
300
250
30%
200
12%
150
20%
100
50 39%
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Pacific
Pacific prioritise revenue generation over cost
savings on a nearly three-to-one basis, when asked
about the primary success criteria of network
transformation initiatives. This has been true for
years – but there was a greater focus on new
revenues in 2023 than in 2022, potentially linked to
5G monetisation (and investment).
Figure 6
Revenue
Asia Pacific: mobile revenues and capex to revenue Capex to revenue (%)
19%
17%
16% 16% 16% 15%
14%
14%
$227
$223
$220
$217
$213
$197 $209
$203
3% 3% 3%
1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%
of economic value to
came from the productivity effects generated by
the use of mobile services across the economy,
Figure 7
Asia Pacific: total economic contribution of mobile, 2023
Billion, % of GDP
$510 $880
3.0%
Mobile ecosystem
$100 5.3%
$80 0.6%
$90 0.5%
$110 0.5%
0.6%
decade, mobile’s
mostly by the continued expansion of the mobile
ecosystem and verticals increasingly benefiting
economic
from the improvements in productivity and
efficiency brought about by the take-up of mobile
contribution will
services.
Figure 8
Asia Pacific: economic impact of mobile
Billion
$880 $1,010
2023 2030
Source: GSMA Intelligence
ecosystem in Asia
9 million people in Asia Pacific in 2023. In addition,
economic activity in the ecosystem generated
Pacific supported
more than 4 million jobs in other sectors, meaning
around 13 million jobs were directly or indirectly
in 2023
Figure 9
Asia Pacific: employment impact of the mobile ecosystem, 2023
Jobs (million)
4.5
13.2
8.7
contribution of the
public sector, with around $90 billion raised
through taxes. A large contribution was driven by
mobile ecosystem
services VAT, sales taxes and excise duties, which
generated $30 billion.
Figure 10
Asia Pacific: fiscal contribution of the mobile ecosystem, 2023
Billion
$20
$20
$90
$20
$30
Asia Pacific
to 2030, as some countries are in early stages
of deployment and 5G economic benefits will
economy in 2030
increase as the technology starts to achieve scale
and widespread adoption.
Figure 11 Other
Asia Pacific: annual 5G contribution by industry Construction and real estate
Finance
Billion
Information and communication
Services
Public administration
Manufacturing
$140
$120 19%
6%
$100
7%
8%
$80
9%
$60
14%
$40
$20 37%
$0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Figure 12
Rank 1
5G-Advanced: priority use cases
Rank 2
Which 5G-Advanced use cases and applications are most important
to your network transformation priorities? (Top two choices – ranked)
Score
Enhanced integration 6% 4% 4%
with drone resources
Improved device 2% 1% 2%
positioning accuracy
Asia Pacific
countries that
have commercially
launched
Australia
Indonesia
Japan
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
Country Activity
Starlink internet service was formally launched in June 2024, with the
expectation that it will deliver much-needed connectivity to the most
Indonesia remote islands in Indonesia. The country’s government and SpaceX
also signed an agreement on enhancing connectivity in the health and
education sectors.
• KDDI uses AI to detect faults in its LTE core: Conversely, the Global Telco Alliance (SK Telecom,
KDDI is using a failure-detection system that Singtel, SoftBank, Deutsche Telekom and e&) are
utilises AI in its LTE mobile core network. It can co-developing their own telecoms-specific AI
monitor and analyse time-series performance models, benefiting from a global customer base
data such as the amount of traffic output from of 1.3 billion across 50 countries. Compared to
network devices, the number of successful general LLMs, telco-specific LLMs are tailored
connections and the device's CPU usage rate. It to match specific requirements and have a
uses these to detect when a standard value has better understanding of users. Tailored LLMs
been exceeded to prevent failures. also facilitate the swift and efficient deployment
of high-quality genAI models, accelerating AI
• DNB and Ericsson automate network
transformation. However, achieving a universally
management: Malaysia's Digital Nasional
applicable LLM across diverse telecoms
Berhad (DNB) and Ericsson conducted a proof
environments is a challenging task. Thus, the
of concept in the use of AI, ML and automation
success of collaborative efforts such as the Global
to simplify management of the 5G network and
Telco AI Alliance depends heavily on the degree of
reduce manual configuration tasks and human
LLM refinement and adaptation required by each
errors. The automation allows the manual
operator.
configuration of individual network elements,
reduces the maintenance period for upgrades
and enables service-level agreement obligations
to be maintained.
• Reliance Jio has partnered with the Indian • NTT Docomo Ventures has invested in Sakana
Institute of Technology Bombay to develop and AI, a company aiming to develop next-generation
launch BharatGP, an LLM designed to meet the genAI infrastructure models. The partnership
needs of India’s multiple languages. aims to develop sustainable genAI solutions
through ‘lightweight’ LLMs to mitigate the
• SK Telecom has invested an additional
enormous power-consumption requirements of
$100 million in Anthropic, an AI safety and
current LLMs.
research company based in San Francisco, to
jointly develop a multilingual LLM that supports • KT and KT Cloud have jointly invested
various languages, including Korean, English, KRW15 billion ($11.6 million) in Moreh, an AI
Japanese and Spanish. computing infrastructure startup. Moreh’s AI
solutions allow users, including AI developers,
• SK Telecom has invested $10 million in
data centre operators and AI chip makers, to
Perplexity, a San Francisco–based genAI-
build more flexible AI infrastructure.
enabled conversational search engine developer.
Perplexity will collaborate with SK Telecom on • KT has also partnered with the Thai
the development of genAI-based search engines communication technology company Jasmine
to be integrated in the operator’s AI personal Group to create an LLM service based on the
assistants, including its A Dot application. Thai language.
Figure 15
Number of mobile internet subscribers in Asia Pacific
Million
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
However, the simultaneous rise of online threats Meanwhile, the proliferation of advanced AI tools,
targeting individuals and enterprises risks the notably genAI applications, adds a new dimension
erosion of consumer trust in digital services. These to the threat landscape by potentially enabling
threats, which vary considerably in scope and new types of attacks and making existing ones
scale, include online scams, frauds, abuses, and harder to detect. Across Asia Pacific (including
misinformation and disinformation perpetuated Greater China), there was a 1,530% increase in the
against vulnerable individuals and communities, number of deepfakes7 detected in 2023, with the
as well as malicious cyberattacks and data majority of cases in Vietnam and Japan. 8
breaches targeting enterprises of various
Online threats can have a profound impact on
sizes. The threat of online misinformation and
victims, including financial losses and a mental
disinformation becomes more acute considering
toll, resulting in a loss of trust in digital platforms.
its potential impact on major elections across the
region in 2024 and 2025.
7. The use of AI/ML algorithms to create highly realistic audio or video content with the intent to deceive or manipulate.
8. Identity Fraud Report 2023, Sumsub
Beyond regulations, digital ecosystem players, • Airtel launched the Airtel IQ Spam Shield, an
notably mobile operators and social media firms, AI/ML-based solution, which helped a local bank
are taking steps to tackle online threats and, reduce spam messages by 98% and block more
by extension, protect their customers, mitigate than 8,000 suspicious SMS headers. This helped
reputational damage and maintain trust in digital to prevent over 160,000 potential frauds by
platforms. Awareness is an important first step to blocking harmful content and templates.
protecting individuals and businesses. As such,
• Meta has committed to build tools to detect,
operators across Asia Pacific have invested in
identify and label AI-generated images shared
various initiatives, for example dedicated pages
on its platforms. It has also committed to
on their websites, to inform their customers of
develop LLMs to automatically moderate content
new threats and educate them on how to protect
online and collaborate with industry partners on
themselves and others.
common technical standards for identifying AI-
A growing number of operators in the region generated content.
have also launched Rich Communication Services
• Google DeepMind has launched a watermarking
(RCS) to improve security for consumers and
tool that labels whether images have been
businesses. RCS protects consumers by enabling
generated with AI. The tool, called SynthID, can
spam filtration – a feature that prevents malicious
help people tell when AI-generated content
text messages from reaching your inbox. Flagged
is being passed off as real or help protect
spam texts are automatically sent to a spam filter,
copyright.
so that users don’t interact with a fake message.
This feature is often added on top of RCS and Importantly, the task of maintaining and enhancing
is currently being added to the RCS standard. trust must be viewed as a shared responsibility
Moreover, RCS business messaging (RBM) gives between stakeholders, as opposed to the sole
businesses the ability to verify their accounts, responsibility of any single stakeholder. To this end,
meaning that users can be certain that the stakeholders in some countries have announced
business they’re speaking to is not a fake account. collaborative initiatives to tackle online threats.
This business verification feature is a key consumer In June 2024, the South Korean government said
protection tool, as it prevents users from falling it will share phishing scam call data with private
prey to fake business spam texts. companies, including operators, to help them to
develop AI-based services and software to prevent
Other technical solutions have also been
voice phishing scams. In March 2024, Singtel
developed to combat various threats, such as the
Cyber Security Institute, SIM Academy and UOB
following:
announced the co-development of a cyber scam
• Singtel has launched SingVerify, a suite of preparedness programme called Defence Against
solutions to protect customer data and mitigate Cyber Scams to upskill and reskill employees of
online frauds. The solution enables a multifactor- large enterprises.
authentication process that instantly verifies
users’ digital identities to prevent phishing and
malware application scams.
9. “Banks unite to declare war on scammers”, Australian Banking Association, November 2023
10. Consultation Paper on Proposed Shared Responsibility Framework, Monetary Authority of Singapore
11. https://www.un.org/techenvoy/global-digital-compact
Figure 16
Mobile's impact on the SDGs in Asia Pacific
16. “PT Berkat Air Laut Applying NB-IoT Technology for Smart Water Meter Solution, Ensuring Clean Water Supply in Gili Trawangan and Gili Meno”, XL Axiata, March 2023
Rationalising networks
Legacy network sunsets continue to gain demand evolves. Comprehensive strategies require
momentum around the world. Between 2010 an understanding of key factors for both operators
and the end of Q1 2024, a total of 114 networks, and consumers. These include operational
including 2G and 3G, have been shut down. cost savings, legacy customer devices and
Momentum has accelerated in recent years, with associated migration costs and service disruption
more than half of total network shutdowns having risks, potential customer churn, and VoLTE
been completed in the last three years. Asia implementation and interoperability issues.
Pacific and Europe have been at the forefront of
While consumer protection is typically the
network sunsets, accounting for more than 75% of
paramount concern of regulators, the implications
shutdowns to date.
of a 2G or 3G switch-off should also be considered
Decisions to sunset legacy 2G and 3G services are in relation to key spectrum management issues.
based on a wide range of considerations. Mobile These include technology-neutral licensing and
network operators seek to rationalise legacy minimum spectrum assignments that are optimal
network technologies as more spectrally efficient for utilising newer technologies.
technologies become available and connectivity