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Effect of Cryptocurrency on Indian Economy -An Overview of Current Status

and Future Prospects

Article · September 2022

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6653926

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IJMRT: Volume (4), Issue 6, 2022 ISSN (Print) : 2663-2381
ISSN(Online) : 2663-4007

International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

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(A Peer Reviewed Journal)
www.ijmrt.in

Effect of Cryptocurrency on Indian Economy - An Overview

of Current Status and Future Prospects
Rohit Morbale1, Bhushan Patil 2*, Nripesh Nrip 3
1,2
Student, Master In Computer Application, Bharati Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University),Institute of
Management Kolhapur.
3,
Assistant Professor, Bharati Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University),Institute of Management
Kolhapur.
*
Corresponding author DoI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6653926

Abstract

Cryptocurrency is an innovative concept of virtual and decentralised currency which has become the

new investment option like gold in India. Since there is a lack of a regulatory framework or law about

cryptocurrency transactions and trading in India, the buying and selling of Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Ethereum,

and other cryptocurrencies are restricted by the government. There are several restrictions on the

existence of cryptocurrencies in India. This study is based on understanding cryptocurrency and its

effect on the economy. The study is also based on existing scenarios and future prospects.

With the rapid growth of information and communication technologies, a lot of daily activities have

been digitised and become more time-saving and flexible. A lot of online users have switched to the

virtual world and cryptocurrency has created a new business phenomenon to promote buying, trading,

and selling digital assets. Cryptocurrency represents intangible and valuable objects used online in

various networks and applications like online games, social networks, P2P networks, and virtual worlds.

Virtual currency has been used widely in different systems over the years.

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Indian economy, digital assets, P2P networks, bitcoin, cryptocurrency
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in India.
Page

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1.Introduction
Looking a few decades back, no one imagined the way the internet would control the world.

For example, Amazon was merely an online book store in 1994. Today, it is one of the largest

online retailers in the world. Even its first customers have never expected it to expand Page | 132

tremendously in various categories like streaming services, electronics, clothing, groceries, and

whatnot. These days, cryptocurrencies are in the same position, with lack of awareness of its

potential to redefine the financial and economic landscape and make a positive effect across

the world.

Cryptocurrencies were invented to redefine the way people store, transfer, and create value.

However, they can add financial inclusion and serve a higher purpose by providing the options

for transaction and investment to all the users, despite ethnicity, nationality, gender, race, or

socioeconomic status. Cryptocurrencies are available widely and touch on all important digital

currencies. They are real-time and autonomous assets for settlement. They have recently gained

an immense reputation as digital currency. It is basically real money which is formed by digital

tokens for the masses. It is possible to track digital currency with electronic ledgers or

“blockchains”.

1.1.Background

When it comes to the unbanked population, there are around 190 million people in India and

1.7 billion across the world, and the online population leads India to rank second across the

world. According to an ICUBE report published by IAMAI and Kantar (2021), there will be

around 622 million active online users in 2020, i.e. a number which is supposed to grow by

45% by 2025, i.e. around 900 million. Combined with the subcontinent's financial inclusion

and digitization programs, the emerging base of internet users has been helpful for consumers

to be more aware of cryptocurrencies and warm up to digital exchanges.

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Increased adoption of cryptocurrency is leading to a significant improvement in financial

inclusion. Many Indians are underserved by traditional investment options and financial

institutions. There is also a lack of awareness about crypto finance. But it can make transactions
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easier, cheaper, and without judgement. In addition, cryptocurrencies have provided consumers

with new asset classes to expand their wealth in terms of investment.

The rising use of the internet in India and digital landscape has expanded the popularity of

cryptocurrencies expanding across the masses. As reported by a blockchain service provider,

Chainanalysis (2021), India stands at the second spot in adoption of cryptocurrency. Over 15

million Indians have investments in digital assets till date (Kumar, 2021). According to a

survey, cryptocurrency is owned by every 6 urban residents out of 10 in India (Verma, 2021).

There is a seven-fold rise in crypto investments in India, i.e. from $923 million to around $6.6

billion during April 2020 to May 2021 (Lau, 2021). With the rise in internet penetration in

rural India, there is a significant rise in these developments to improve financial access in India.

According to a recent report by PWC, there are high chances that Indian currency will be a

blend of decentralised, tokenbased, account-based, and centralised models in future (Kayrouz,

2021). It would be in the form of stablecoins, “Central Bank Digital Currencies” and

cryptocurrencies which exist together with physical and digital currencies. Cryptocurrencies

won’t just promote the goal of financial inclusion in India, but also reduce the transaction costs.

There would be less dependence on cash across the world and money would be more mobile

and accessible. India has constantly been one of the leaders in receiving remittances for over a

decade in a row. International fund transfers are subject to waiting for 2-3 business days and

high transaction fees. The way remittances operate across the world is a major implication for

India and other developing economies. This way, cryptocurrency has a great potential to

emerge as a viable solution to make international money transfers faster, reliable and cheaper.

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India is known to be very friendly to the crypto economy because it has a huge population of

Gen Z and millennials who are tech savvy and full of tech talents, ready to work with

blockchain. It has led to the growth of blockchain start-ups and introduction of emerging digital
Page | 134
currencies with the RBI expecting to pilot its initial digital currency. Cryptocurrency is also

preferred by Indian youths aged 18 to 35 years old, as compared to gold because of simple

processing, according to a recent “World Gold Council” report (Das, 2021). When India is still

facing the aftereffects of COVID-19 in different parts, financial inclusion must be the priority

of the government to boost the economy and businesses. India may have a much more

accessible and democratised financial system in a few decades to come.

2. Literature Reviews

Huckle et al (2017) proposed an application to transfer fiat currency using blockchain

technology into Ether, a cryptocurrency. This technology has the potential to be part of a large

system. It enables a user to exchange the foreign currency left after travelling into their local

currency. Demonetization scheme is one of the best use cases by converting fiat currency into

any cryptocurrency. They discussed when this measure was not used by the Indian government

and also the reason why they may have decided to adopt their own cryptocurrency. Even

though this technology can be adopted by the Indian public, it is highly unlikely. In the end,

they show that this application is technically feasible but the Indian government may not

consider it because of financial sovereignty issues.

There is a lack of research on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as mode of payment and their

relation with financial and economic variables in Nigeria. Hence, Jimoh & Oluwasegun (2020)

determined the nexus between two important financial and economic variables, i.e. stock

market and exchange rate, and Ethereum and Bitcoin, most traded cryptocurrencies in Nigeria.

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They used “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH 1,1)”, “Granger

causality” and “Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

(EGARCH1,1)” techniques using monthly data from August 2015 to December 2019 to test
Page | 135
the reaction of volatility of stock market and exchange rates to crypto prices. It is found that

instability of crypto prices influences stock market prices more than the exchange rate in the

country. In addition, they found “one-way causality” from Ethereum and Bitcoin to all indexes

of the share market. Hence, stock investors should look at the crypto prices closely in Nigeria.

In order to expand the horizon of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, the RBI is looking for various

opportunities and ways to establish a central authority-based cryptocurrency. Rao & Dashora

(2017) aims to analyse this concept and its impact on money supply “M0 and M1” because of

unpredictability in money multipliers. They recommended certain ways for the government

and central banks to make it an ideal venture. They also analysed observations across the world

to reach conclusions.

Mallick & Mallick (2021) determined the relation between the official “Indian Currencies

foreign exchange rates or ICX (GBP, USD, YEN, EURO, etc.)” and cryptocurrencies like

“Binance Coin”, “Litecoin”, Ethereum and Bitcoin with daily analysis during December 17,

2019 to June, 17, 2021. There is a “significant positive relationship” between “Binance Coin

and Ethereum” with Bitcoin, “Binance Coin and Bitcoin” with Ethereum, “Binance Coin”

with Litecoin, and Litecoin with “Binance Coin”. There is a negative relation between Litecoin

and USD. Hence, Litecoin can be useful for diversification and hedging. There is also minimal

impact on crypto markets from foreign exchange markets in India, maybe because of the lack

of a legal framework for recognition by the government. It also causes lack of public

acceptability.

Brenig & Müller (2015) conducted an economic analysis of “money laundering” with

cryptocurrencies which are decentralised and convertible digital currencies relying on

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cryptography. According to them, the rising popularity of cryptocurrencies is seeking the

attention of scholars and practitioners, especially due to increasing concerns on money

laundering incidents.
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They explained the process of money laundering and existing anti-money laundering measures.

It helps in analysing transactional and contextual factors about the influence on benefits of

using it for money laundering by cyber criminals.

2.1.Research Gap

Considering the above studies, there is still a lack of understanding of the benefits and potential

of cryptocurrency and its future prospects in the Indian economy. Hence, this study is aimed

to fill this gap.

Research Question

● What is the current status of adoption of cryptocurrency in the Indian market?

● What are the future prospects of cryptocurrency in the Indian economy?

Research Objectives

● To evaluate the current status and future prospects of cryptocurrency on Indian economy

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3. Research Methodology

To fulfil the above research objectives, this study is based on secondary data collected from

various reliable online sources, like high impact journals, research papers, news articles, and
Page | 137
other trusted platforms.

4. Analysis of Study

The Finance Minister of India, Arun Jaitley announced that Bitcoin is no longer a legal tender

in January 2018. Cryptocurrency is neither deemed to be coin nor currency without any

physical attributes and as a “virtual currency (VC)”. Hence, VC cannot be used as a mode of

exchange without being officially authorised by the RBI. The strict currency control of the

country would be ineffectual due to the very nature of virtual currency (Anand, 2018). The

capital growth would be considered as capital gains from the asset class in India. The “Ministry

of Finance”,

“Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)” and the I-T Department have sought

information from various crypto-exchanges regarding their transactions (Jain & Kumar, 2018).

The use of cryptocurrency has been banned as an asset class by both financial institutions and

businesses. The government has also banned converting INR into cryptocurrency within Indian

borders. However, one can convert cryptocurrency across various ICOs (Cumming et al, 2019).

People suffered a huge number of financial losses and government policies somehow failed to

protect the investors because of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, people always attempt to invest

where they can get higher returns like bitcoin as compared to the interest from banks. Loan

waivers, lower rate of interest, and bailing out by public sector banks with public’s money

raises a concern on their overall process. On the other hand, crypto banks have less rate of

interest for loans.

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4.1.What is the current status of adoption of cryptocurrency in the Indian market?

Crypto is now known as digital gold. But stakes are always high in crypto investment. The
Page | 138
price of one bitcoin was only $123 in October 2013. As of Jan 2021, its price has crossed a

whopping US$ 34,000. Gold is also a valuable asset in India. Currently, the price of 10g of 24k

gold has crossed Rs. 50,000. A person might have doubled the investment by investing in gold,

while bitcoin has given 340 times more return over the years. This is known as “Digital gold”

for a reason. There are so many crypto banks in India that have started operating here like

Vault, Kasa, and Easyfi Network. According to Vault’s CEO, they have provided around $25

billion as loan.

A physical crypto bank has also been established “Unicas” with the merger of “Cashaa” and

“United”, a multi-state cooperative society in Jaipur. Unicas also has branches in Delhi,

Gujarat and Rajasthan. If someone has Ripple, Bitcoin, or any cryptocurrency, they can get up

to 50% loan of the existing market price of crypto by giving cryptocurrency as security. It is

due to the fact that cryptocurrency is highly volatile and subject to fluctuation. There is no set

timeline for returning the loan, though the borrower needs to pay interest.

Banks usually charge up to 24% of interest, while crypto banks charge up to 15% of interest

on cryptocurrency with up to 5% of processing fee. This is why cryptocurrency stands out. In

addition, the loan process is also very simple in cryptocurrency and there is no bar on CRISIL

scores and creditworthiness. There is 4% interest on keeping crypto in the banks. The

“Cryptocurrency Bill 2021” is yet to reach the public domain. But there are high chances that

the ban on cryptocurrency and introduction of RBI’s digital currency will raise a lot of concerns

to the investors (Chandra, 2022).

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Like in other countries, cryptocurrencies have become popular also in India due to the highest

volume of INR being traded in crypto after demonetization. The Indian Rupee-dominated

crypto has generated the third largest volume followed by USD and Yen. The demonetization
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in 2016 may have implemented cryptocurrencies amongst a huge population but realities

started coming out quickly with subdued growth in the Indian market. India has only 2% of

contribution to the global market capitalization of cryptocurrency, despite being ranked second

in population after China (James & Parashar, 2018). There are few limitations of

cryptocurrencies in India, such as –

● Security and Trust – Being the digital mode of transaction, cryptocurrency has been

widely used for money laundering, drugs smuggling, terror funding, hacking, and various

illegal activities. So, there is a lack of trust and security among the common public

regarding cryptocurrency investment.

● Market Risks – The cryptocurrency market is very speculative and there are different

cryptocurrencies available. All of them don’t result in good returns for investors. Their

price also relies on demand and supply. Speculation is the major factor in fluctuations of

cryptocurrency pricing. So, there is a huge financial risk involved.

● Taxability issues – There is still a lack of clarity in income tax rules on taxability of gains

from cryptocurrency. There is still no possibility of taxing the crypto gains ruled out by the

income tax authorities. Cryptocurrency’s capital gains in India are subject to tax liability

as short term or long-term capital gains as per the period of holding it.

● No Regulations – Though other countries have already taken some actions regarding the

fair use of cryptocurrency, the Indian government is still waiting and watching. India is yet

to assign a regulatory framework to track cryptocurrency transactions. There is always a

high threat to investor protection and risks of fraud on the movement of money in the

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economy. Apart from other central banks, RBI was unable to track cryptocurrency

activities.

● KYC Rules and Volatility of prices – Cryptocurrency is highly volatile by nature as its
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pricing relies on supplies and demand and it completely runs on speculations. Hence, an

investor should undergo KYC rules for cryptocurrency transactions and it may take a while

to be approved by the wallets. This approval may take several days, depending upon the

wallet. Till the time an investor gets approved, he may lose the odds of profit as

cryptocurrency value fluctuates drastically.

4.2.What are the future prospects of cryptocurrency in the Indian economy?

Cryptocurrencies are mutating significantly into actual money to give tough competition to

various currencies issued by governments across the world. The existing price hike of Bitcoin

could mean a great future ahead. It is also known as digital money in a payment system like

points in random stores are known as digital money as it can be used for payment rather than

physical money. Cryptocurrency is genuinely decentralised. It will have a great scope to grow

in future.

However, all the systems of control and power won’t have much benefits of this new form of

digital currency. It is not easy to tell what would be done to manage cryptocurrency and the

challenges should be overcome to make it common in daily life.

It can be the global currency in future and keeping specific currency for every country would

no longer be needed. Anyone can use this decentralised currency and avoid the exchange rates

across the world, though it is not easy to regulate. It works on the “one world, one currency”

concept. Centralised banks are eventually concluding that cryptocurrencies will stay for a long

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time. According to several economists and research, digital currencies’ values are determined

as per the market. Still a lot of research must be done about the impact of cryptocurrency in

future.
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Some of the common examples of cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), and

Ether (ETH). Ether stands second in market cap among the cryptocurrencies. The block time

for Litecoin is around 2.5 minutes, while it is 10 minutes for Bitcoin. So, the exchange rate is

faster in Litecoin among the users.

Bitcoins have been available in India since 2012. Currently, there are over 1 million Bitcoin

users and 11 trading platforms in India. Bitcoin transactions in India have been regulated by

RBI in India. Cryptocurrencies cannot be used for buying services and goods in India. As of

2018, the Indian government announced that cryptocurrencies are no longer legal tender during

the union budget (Singh & Singh, 2018). People trading or using them or even dealing in them

have no protection here. When asked by the media, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that

government knew that cryptocurrency is widely used for terrorism, money laundering, and

other illegal activities.

The Indian government has also warned the people using such currencies to take extreme

caution as there is no legal protection for investors. Government cannot provide any help in

case of any fraud that takes place. An expert committee is also formed by the government to

determine the risk in it. It will determine the cryptocurrencies’ activities and release the report.

Cryptocurrencies are accepted in some countries while some countries still haven’t taken any

decision.

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5. Results

Experts worldwide have concluded that cryptocurrencies have a great future. Issuing real

money is the only way to add value to cryptocurrency. They also discussed the risk of trading
Page | 142
with cryptocurrencies as there is still a lack of regulatory bodies to control the fraud in such

types of currencies and also criminal activities are a major problem here. According to several

studies, one can easily imitate cryptocurrency and conduct false transactions. So, trading is

still not safe here. It also needs a lot of analysis on this and a healthy result is still needed to

get a brief idea on the use of cryptocurrency and its consequences.

There are different financial exchanges where bitcoins are traded and they have enjoyed

significant rise in value over the past few years. A lot of exchanges require some KYC

information but loopholes are still present. For example, several wallets can be owned by the

same person where coins are stored. Trades may be layered to make it impossible to track what

is sold by whom and when. In addition, the cause of the trade is still not known. One thing is

certain that there is a movement of the coin across the wallets.

Conclusion

The government of India should take a stand in the world of cryptocurrency as it has huge

potential to bring technological revolution to the country. The tax on cryptocurrency gains also

adds up to a huge sum of direct taxes which goes to the I-T Department which can further push

the overall growth of the economy. The Indian government should look forward to regulating

it instead of announcing the blanket ban. There is a need to make it transparent, safer and more

reliable. Citizens should be more aware of the overall functioning of cryptocurrency to invest

more on it, especially in India which stands second in terms of population. Cryptocurrency

holds a bright future which is encouraging about e-investments, e-business, and e-payments.

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Laws must be made about cryptocurrencies, considering several legal, financial aspects

towards a more consumerfriendly and secure system.

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Page | 143

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