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IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

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DOI: 10.32942/X2T31G

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 IUCN RED LIST
of

ECOSYSTEMS ASSESSMENTS
www.iucnrle.org

Mangroves of the EN
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Somaya Magdy M. Ghoraba1, Hanan Almahasheer2, Ahmed A.H. Siddig3 4, Hisham M. Nagi5 &
6
Ena L. Suárez
1
IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management, Gland, Switzerland
2
Department of Biology, College of Science, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University (IAU), Dammam 31441-1982, Saudi
Arabia
3
Faculty of Forestry, University of Khartoum, Sudan
4
Harvard Forest, Harvard University, 324 N. Main St., Petersham, MA 01366, USA
5
Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Petroleum and Natural Resources, Sana’a University, Republic of Yemen.
6
International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN, Gland, Switzerland

Abstract
Mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is a regional ecosystem subgroup (level 4 unit of the IUCN Global
Ecosystem Typology). It includes the marine eco-regions of Gulf of Aden, Northern and Central Red Sea, and
Southern Red Sea, and extends across Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia. The
biota is characterized by two species of true mangroves namely; Avicennia marina and Rhizophora mucronata.
Both are classified by IUCN as Least Concern. The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangroves are threatened by cattle
grazing, oil and solid wastes pollution, coastal development, heat waves and sea-level rise. Aridity and drought
nature of this province, along with low nutrient inputs, are expected to exacerbate the adverse impacts of
climate change on mangroves.

The mapped extent in 2020 was 189.2 Km2, representing 0.1 % of the global mangrove extent. However, there
is uncertainty about mapped extent in 1970 based on available studies. Although the net area of mangroves has
decreased by 21.7% since 1996, it has only decreased by 4.0% since 2010. This improvement may be the result
of increased conservation efforts to restore mangroves in various Red Sea and Gulf of Aden countries. Under a
high sea-level rise scenario (IPCC RCP8.5) ≈-67.1% of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangroves would be
submerged by 2060. Moreover, 1.7% of the province’s mangrove ecosystem is undergoing degradation, with the
potential to increase to 5.2% within a 50-year period, based on a vegetation index decay analysis. Overall, the
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove ecosystem is assessed as Endangered (EN).

Citation: Ecosystem classification:

Ghoraba, S.M.M., Almahasheer, H., Siddig, A.A.H., MFT1.2 Intertidal forests and shrublands
Nagi, H.M., & Suárez, E.L. (2024). Assessment’s distribution:
IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden’. EcoEvoRxiv Summary of the assessment
Criterion A B C D E Overall
Corresponding author: Subcriterion 1 NT LC DD DD NE
Email: [email protected] EN
Subcriterion 2 NT LC EN LC NE
Subcriterion 3 DD LC DD DD NE
Keywords:
EN= Endangered, NT= Near Threatened, LC= Least
Mangroves; Red List of ecosystems; ecosystem
Concern, DD= Data Deficient, NE=Not Evaluated
collapse; threats.

1
 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Mangroves of the Red Sea EN

and Gulf of Aden
1. Ecosystem Classification
IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology (version 2.1, Keith et al. 2022):
Transitional Marine-Freshwater-Terrestrial realm
MFT1 Brackish tidal biome
MFT1.2 Intertidal forests and shrublands
MFT1.2_4_MP_18 Mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme (version 3.1, IUCN 2012):

1 Forest
1.7 Forest – Subtropical/tropical mangrove vegetation above high tide level* below water level1
12 Marine Intertidal
12.7 Mangrove Submerged Roots

2. Ecosystem Description
Spatial distribution
The Mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province includes intertidal forests and shrub lands of the
marine eco-regions of the Gulf of Aden, Northern and Central Red Sea, and Southern Red Sea (Spalding et
al., 2007). The Red Sea connects the continents of Africa and Asia and extends across coastlines in Egypt,
Sudan, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia, while the Gulf of Aden, which connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean,
shares borders with Yemen, Djibouti and Somalia (Figure 1). Although the borders of the Red Sea and Gulf
of Aden province pass through Yemen, this assessment includes the entire Yemeni mangroves, including the
Al Maharah Governorate with approximately 0.01 km2 of mangroves (Nagi et al., 2012). Mangroves in
Eritrea and Saudi Arabia contribute 41% and 35 %, of the total mangrove cover in the province, respectively.
In 2020, the estimated extent of mangroves in this province was 189.2 km2, representing about 0.1% of the
global mangrove area, with net area change of -21.7 % from 1996 to 2020, and of – 4.0 % from 2010 to 2020
(Bunting et al., 2022). The decline in the rate of mangrove loss estimated from 2010 to 2020 could be
associated with adoption of afforestation and restoration projects and establishment of protected areas that
began in the 1990s (Almahasheer et al., 2016a, Friis and Burt, 2020).

1
Note on the original classification scheme. This habitat should include mangrove vegetation below water level.
Mangroves have spread into warm temperate regions to a limited extent and may occasionally occur in supratidal areas.
However, the vast majority of the world's mangroves are found in tropical/subtropical intertidal areas.

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Figure 1. The distribution of mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province

Biotic components of the ecosystem (characteristic native biota)

The mangrove ecosystem of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is characterized by small scattered mangrove
patches with low productivity due to aridity and other harsh environmental conditions in this province,
including low rainfall, limited nutrients supply, and extreme temperature (Almahasheer et al. 2017). The
Red Sea coast mangrove ecosystem is dominated by two plant species in the IUCN Red List of Threatened
Species database (IUCN, 2022): Avicennia marina (Least Concern, LC) and Rhizophora mucronata (LC).
Avicennia marina (Grey Mangrove) belongs to the Family Acanthaceae and grows as small to medium trees
that dominate all intertidal zones. Rhizophora mucronata (family Rhizophoracea) is found mainly in lower to
mid-intertidal regions. Both species are salt-tolerant and survive in extreme salinity levels up to 40 ppt
(Robertson and Alongi 1992). Previous surveys reported the presence of Bruguiera gymnorhiza and Ceriops
tagal in Djibouti and Eritrea (PERSGA, 2004; Khalil 2015); however, according to IUCN (2022) and
Bunting et al. (2022) these species no longer occur. In Yemen, Bruguiera gymnorhiza is reported to be
extinct (Duke et al., 2010). In Somalia, although several mangrove species other than Avicennia
marina and Rhizophora mucronata are identified (IUCN, 2022; Bunting et al., 2022), only Avicennia
marina and Rhizophora mucronata exist within this province (Mumuli et al. 2010; IUCN, 2022).

Avicennia marina is the dominant species in this province, and its growth varies based on plant location
and associated environmental properties (Khalil, 2015). Along the fringe of the Red Sea, Avicennia marina
grows to a maximum height of 4.95 m, compared to mangroves recorded in the central Red Sea, which are

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

stunted with an average tree height of only 2.7 m. The annual node production is rather uniform among
locations averaging 9.59 node y−1, which results in a plastocron interval (the interval in between production
of two consecutive nodes along a stem) of 38 days (Almahasheer et al., 2016b). A recent analysis has
revealed that the maximum tree height of Avicennia marina and chlorophyll a concentration were correlated
positively with nitrogen concentration in the leaves (Anton et al., 2020). According to the IUCN Red List of
Threatened Species (IUCN, 2022), there are at least 170 species associated with mangroves of the Red Sea
and Gulf of Aden province (see Appendix 1) within the taxa Actinopterygii (55 species), Aves (75 species),
Chondrichthyes (10 species), Gastropoda (five species), Holothuroidea (three species), Liliopsida (four
species), Magnoliopsida (two species), Mammalia (seven species), Reptilia (eight species), and Anthozoa
(one species).

Avicennia marina scattered along shoreline of Central Red Sea showing dwarf mangroves
(Photo credit: Hanan Almahasheer)

Avicennia marina and intertidal zone of the Central Red Sea (Photo credit: Hanan Almahasheer)

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Rhizophora mucronata at Al-Gandal opposite Al-Hodeidah City, Yemen (Photo credit: Hisham Nagi)

Rhizophora mucronata, North of Kamaran Island in the Red Sea (Photo credit: Hisham Nagi)

Mangrove forests along the Egyptian Red Sea coast (Photo credit: Somaya Ghoraba)

Abiotic Components of the Ecosystem

The distribution of mangroves in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is influenced by harsh environmental
conditions in this province. The low tidal range of the Red Sea, along with the arid conditions, including low
freshwater supply and high water and air temperatures, result in high seawater salinity. Therefore, only two
mangrove species adapted to hyper-saline conditions are present along the Red Sea coast (Pirri et al., 2023).
Factors such as low rainfall, nutrient limitation and high temperature have lowered Corg sink capacity,

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

increased soil respiration rates, and reduced growth rates of mangroves (Almahasheer, et al., 2017). Low leaf
nutrient concentrations and low carbon-to-nutrient stoichiometric ratios are characteristics of mangrove
stands in the Central Red Sea, which indicate severe nutrient depletion, particularly of Phosphorous (P) and
Iron (Fe), across stands and suggest the likelihood of nutrient limitation of Central Red Sea mangroves
(Almahasheer et al., 2016c). Nutrient limitation is attributed to lack of riverine nutrient input into the Red
Sea, which has resulted in growth of dwarfed mangroves (Anton et al., 2020; Perri et al., 2023). Nutrient
concentration is also suggested to be the main factor limiting the mangrove‟s response to high temperature
and low fresh water supply, as well as the biogenic character of the carbonates-dominated Red Sea sediments
(Almahasheer et al., 2016b).

Key processes and interactions

Mangroves act as structural engineers possessing traits such as pneumatophores, salt excretion glands,
vivipary, and propagule buoyancy that promote survival and recruitment in poorly aerated, saline, mobile,
and tidally inundated substrata. The mangrove fauna plays a key role in mangrove ecological processes, with
crabs being among the most abundant and important mangrove-associated invertebrates. In addition to their
role as mangrove herbivores and detritivores, crab burrows oxygenate sediments, enhance groundwater
penetration, and provide microhabitats for other invertebrates. Mangroves produce large amounts of organic
matter, mainly leaves, plus flowers, twigs and bark, which are broken down physically by tidal and marine
processes, or consumed by crabs, then decomposed further by smaller invertebrates, fungi and bacteria to
produce mangrove detritus, which provides a protein- and nutrient-rich food source for other consumers in
the mangrove and coastal food web.
Mangroves exhibit high efficiency in nitrogen use and nutrient resorption. The Nitrogen (N) and
Phosphorous (P) stocks contained in the top 20 cm sediment layer was estimated to be 70 g P m−2, while
short-term N and P accumulation rates were 0.092 mg P cm−2 yr−1 (Saderne et al., 2020). Although
mangroves are considered to be major blue carbon sinks, mangroves of the Red Sea have limited capacity for
carbon sequestration compared to other locations due to their low rate of productivity in the prevailing harsh
environmental conditions (Almahasheer et al., 2017). Along the Egyptian Red Sea coast, soil organic carbon
(SOC) density in mangrove stands has been shown to decline significantly with depth from 25.1 Kg C m-3 at
depth 0–10 cm to 17.7 Kg C m-3 at depth 20–30 cm, Average carbon sequestration rates (CSR) of mangrove
stands was estimated to be 6.1 g C m-2 yr -1(Eid and Shaltout, 2016). A study of 10 mangrove sites within
four locations along the Saudi coast of the Central Red Sea has shown that average SOC density and carbon
stock in Red Sea mangroves was only 4 ± 0.3 mg C cm−3 and 43 ± 5 Mg C ha−1 (to a soil depth of 1 m),
respectively; and average CSR was 15 g C m−2 yr−1, indicating low SOC and CSR values for Red Sea
mangroves (Almahasheer et al., 2017).

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

3. Ecosystem Threats and vulnerabilities

Main threatening process and pathways to degradation
Mangroves deforestation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province arises from various factors, including
conversion for aquaculture and expansion of shrimp and crab farms; urbanization associated with coastal
development; over-harvesting for fuel wood, timber, and animal feeds; and oil pollution. Dumping of
domestic solid wastes, including polyethylene bags, metal and plastic cans from residential communities
along the coast is a cause of deterioration of the mangrove ecosystem. Large plastic objects are more
frequently seen in mangroves than on beaches, because mangroves are sinks for marine plastic litter and trap
anthropogenic debris before it is dispersed into the marine environment. In a study conducted in Saudi
Arabia, a total of 1254 litter items have been recorded in the Red Sea, resulting in a density of 0.66 ± 0.18
items m−2 (mean ± SE) along transects. Litter densities in the surveyed stations ranged from 0.02 ± 0.01 items
m−2 in a newly planted mangrove forest with sparse trees 9 km away from Yanbu City to 3.7 ± 1.8 items
m−2 in a 30 years old natural forest on the Yanbu City shoreline (Martin et al., 2019).
Camel grazing and cutting for fodder are causes of mangroves degradation, particularly in Yemen, Djibouti
and Sudan (PERSGA, 2004; Witsen, 2012), leading to great losses of living mangrove foliage (Nagi and
Abubakr, 2013). Moreover, construction of dams in Sudan and Yemen to meet increasing demand for
freshwater along the Red Sea coast has led to sand deposition and reduction in water flow into mangrove
forests, thus creating hyper-saline conditions, which reduces mangrove growth (Mandura, 1997; Aljahdali et
al., 2021). Sand infilling was also responsible for mortality of Rhizophora mucronata trees in Djibouti
(Witsen, 2012).
Climate change is a growing threat to mangroves in the form of frequently occurring drought and
heatwaves along the Red Sea coast that have profound impacts on mangrove ecosystems. The location of
mangrove forests within intertidal areas renders them vulnerable to the consequences of sea-level rise due to
climate change (Blankespoor et al., 2014, Moustafa et al., 2023). Generally, increased heatwave seasons
cause seawater heating and increase salinization, which inhibits mangrove growth. In contrast, in this
province, mangroves are not likely to be impacted by salinization as they are well-adapted to harsh
environments, including extreme salinity and temperature and limited nutrient (Perri et al., 2023).

Sea-level rise threatens mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden due to their vulnerability to inundation
stress, sediment erosion, and drowning, as well as their restricted location within estuaries and rapid coastal
developments, which hinders their landward migration (Nadim et al., 2008; Ward et al., 2016). According to
Blankespoor et al. (2014) an increase of 1 m in sea-level could lead to the loss of 96% of the region‟s coastal
wetlands, including mangroves. According to Schuerch et al. (2018) in a model accounting for sediment
capture, the loss of mangroves in this province will be of 67.1% by 2060 (see Criteria C2 for further
information). Moreover, coastal development and other human impacts on mangroves, such as overgrazing
and deforestation, may exacerbate climate change-related risks.

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Camel grazing on mangroves in Sudan (Photo credit: Awatif Abdelgadir)

Harsh environmental conditions (e.g. drought) limit mangroves’ growth in Sudan (Photo credit: Awatif Abdelgadir)

Threat Classification
IUCN Threat Classification (version 3.3) (IUCN-CMP, 2022) relevant to mangroves of the Red Sea and
Gulf of Aden province:

1. Residential & commercial development

1.1 Housing & urban areas
1.2 Commercial & industrial areas
1.3 Tourism & recreation areas
2. Agriculture & aquaculture
2.3 Livestock farming & ranching

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

2.3.1 Nomadic grazing

2.3.4 Scale Unknown/Unrecorded
2.4 Marine & freshwater aquaculture
2.4.1 Subsistence/artisanal aquaculture
2.4.2 Industrial aquaculture
3. Energy production & mining
3.1 Oil & gas drilling
3.2 Mining & quarrying
3.3 Renewable energy
4. Transportation & service corridors
4.1 Roads & railroads
5. Biological resource use
5.3 Logging & wood harvesting
5.4 Fishing & harvesting aquatic resources
6. Human intrusions & disturbance
6.1 Recreational activities
6.2 War, civil unrest & military exercises
7. Natural system modifications
7.2 Dams & water management/use
9. Pollution
9.1 Domestic & urban waste water
9.1.1 Sewage
9.1.2 Run-off
9.2 Industrial & military effluents
9.2.1 Oil spills
9.2.2 Seepage from mining
9.3 Agricultural & forestry effluents
9.3.2 Soil erosion, sedimentation
9.3.3 Herbicides & pesticides
9.4 Garbage & solid waste
11. Climate change & severe weather
11.1 Habitat shifting & alteration
11.2 Droughts
11.5 Other impacts (sea-level rise)

Definition of the collapsed state of the ecosystem

Mangroves, acting as structural engineers, possess specialized traits that facilitate high nitrogen use
efficiency and nutrient resorption, influencing critical processes and functions within their ecosystem.
Ecosystem collapse is recognized when the tree cover of diagnostic true mangrove species declines to zero,
indicating complete loss (100%). Mangrove ecosystems exhibit remarkable dynamism, with species
distributions adapting to local shifts in sediment distribution, tidal patterns, and variations in local inundation
and salinity gradients. Disruptive processes can trigger shifts in this dynamism, potentially leading to
ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem collapse may manifest through the following mechanisms: a) restricted
recruitment and survival of diagnostic true mangroves due to climate change and sea-level rise); b)
alterations in ecological processes such as, rainfall, nutrient inputs, waves, and tidal currents that destabilize
and erode sediment, hindering mangrove recruitment and growth; c) shifts in water flow and tidal flushing,

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

increase salinity stress and nutrient loading, thereby impacting overall survival; d) habitat conversion (e.g.
coastal developments and urbanization).
For assessing the risk of collapse under Criteria A and B, mangroves are assumed to collapse when their
mapped distribution declines to zero. For assessment of Criterion C, sea-level rise was selected as the
indicator for ecosystem degradation as this ecoregion has been identified as one of the most severely
vulnerable regions to the prospective impacts of sea-level rise. Vegetation indices estimated from the global
mangrove degradation map were used to assess the disruption of biotic degradation Criterion D.

4. Ecosystem Assessment
Criterion A: Reduction in Geographic Distribution
Subcriterion A1 measures the trend in ecosystem extent during the last 50-year time window.
Unfortunately, there is currently no common regional dataset that provides information for the entire target
area in 1970 to extrapolate the trend between 1970 and 2020. Accordingly, we compiled reliable published
sources (see appendix 3) that contain information on mangrove area estimates close to 1970 (both before and
after) for each country within the province. These estimates were then used to interpolate the mangrove area
in 1970 in each country. By summing up these estimates, we calculated the total mangrove area in the
province. We only considered the percentage of each country's total mangrove area located within the
province and the estimated values for 1970 should be considered only indicative (see appendix 3 for further
details of the methods and limitations). For 2020 estimates, we used the most recent version of the Global
Mangrove Watch (GMW v3.0) spatial dataset. The mangrove area in the province (and in the corresponding
countries) was corrected for both omission and commission errors, utilizing the equations in Bunting et al.
(2022).
The analysis of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangroves of subcriterion A1 was assessed using two data
sources to the estimate mangrove area in 1970; Almahasheer et al. (2015) and FAO (2007) time series
(Annex 3). Significant differences between the sources resulted in both low and high estimates. The lower
estimate based on Almahasheer et al. (2015) for 1970 and Bunting et al., (2022) for 2020 shows that the Red
Sea and Gulf of Aden mangroves gained approximately 22.2 % of its mangrove area over the last 50 years
(1970-2020). This gaining trend was obvious across most countries within this province, with gaining rates
observed across Egypt, Yemen and Sudan of ~ 85 %, 84% and 81 % respectively. The higher estimate based
on FAO (2007) time series shows that mangroves area declined by approximately 39.1% from 1970 to 2020,
where all countries observed reduction in mangrove area, except Eritrea, Yemen, and Sudan. These countries
showed mangrove expansion by 62%, 61% and 15% respectively. Unlike the first analysis, reductions were
observed in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Yemen and Sudan observed remarkable increase in mangrove area
between1970-2020; however, this trend diverges depending on the data source, with high estimated areas
reported for these countries in Bunting et al. (2022) compared to other sources such as Almahasheer et al.
(2015) or FAO (2007). For example for Yemen mangrove area in 2000, Almahasheer et al. (2015) reported
8.9 km², FAO (2007) estimated 9 Km², while Bunting et al. (2022) reported 20.6 km² for 1996. For Sudan
mangrove areas: Almahasheer et al. (2015) and FAO (2007) reported 4.5 Km2 and 5 Km2 in 2000
respectively vs. Bunting et al. (2022) 14.2 Km2 in 1996. This discrepancy highlights the importance of

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

considering multiple sources when assessing trends in mangrove area over time.

Overall, the results from various temporal analyses indicate that the changes in mangrove extent between
1970 and 2020 were within 22.2% and – 39.1%. These results would place the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
mangrove ecosystem between the Least Concern (LC) and Vulnerable (VU) threat categories. But given the
large differences between the differences sources the ecosystem is assessed as Near Threatened (NT) under
subcriterion A1, with a plausible range between Least Concern and Vulnerable (LC-VU).

Area
Area 2020* Net area Change % Net Area Rate of change
1970*
(Km2) (Km2) Change (%/year)
(Km2)
Mangroves of 154.8 34.4 22.2 0.4
the Red Sea and Lower
189.2 estimate
Gulf of Aden
311.3 -122.7 -39.1 -0.8
Higher
estimate

* Details on the methods and references used to estimate the mangrove area in 1970 are listed in appendix 3.
Total mangrove area in 2020 is based on the Global Mangrove Watch Version 3 (GMW v3.0) dataset.

Subcriterion A2 measures the change in ecosystem extent in any 50-year period, including from the present
to the future: The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province mangroves show a net area change of -21.7% (1996-
2020) based on the Global Mangrove Watch time series (Bunting et al., 2022). This value reflects the offset
between areas gained (0.11%/year) and lost (1.02 %/year). The largest decrease in mangrove area in this time
series occurred between 1996 and 2010. Applying a linear regression to the area estimations between 1996
and 2020, we obtained a rate of change of -0.9%/year. Assuming this trend continues in the future, it is
predicted that the extent of mangroves in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province will change by - 46.5 %
from 1996 to 2046, and by -58.1% from 2020 to 2070, but by -67.2% from 1996 to 2070 (Figure 2).
However, by analyzing the trend of the time series between 1996 and 2020 it was observed that rates of
change after 2010 significantly changed with net area change estimated of only – 4.0% from 2010 to 2020
and annual rate of decline of -0.4%/year. Assuming this rate continues in the future, it is predicted that the
extent of mangroves in this province will change by -19.4 % from 2010 to 2060 and by -23.2 % from 2010 to
2070 (Figure 2). As the results from the two temporal analyses produced predicted changes in mangrove
extent between – 19.4% and – 67.2% over 50 years, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove ecosystem
qualifies between plausible range (Near Threatened - Endangered) (NT-EN). Considering investigated data
that show an enhancement of rate of decline after 2010 and literature that refers to several conservation
programs started in mid-1990s, including establishment of protected areas and restoration and afforestation
projects (Khalil, 2015, Almahasheer et al. 2016a, Friis and Burt, 2020, Moustafa et al. 2023), a status of
Near Threatened or Vulnerable is more likely than Endangered status. Therefore, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
mangroves assessed as Near Threatened (NT) under subcriterion A2.

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Subcriterion A3 measures changes in mangrove area since 1750. Unfortunately, there are no reliable data
on the mangrove extent for the entire province during this period, and therefore the Red Sea and Gulf of
Aden mangrove ecosystem is classified as Data Deficient (DD) for this subcriterion.
Overall, the ecosystem is assessed as Near Threatened (NT) under criterion A.

2010-2020 R2 = 0.84 Rate of change -0.4%/year

1996-2020 R2 = 0.9 Rate of change -0.9%/year
300.0

250.0
Mangrove Forest Area (Km2)

200.0

150.0
1996-2020
100.0 2010-2020
Linear (1996-2020)
50.0
Linear (2010-2020)

0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year

Figure 2. Projected extent of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove ecosystem to 2070. Circles represent the
province’s mangrove area between 1996 and 2020 based on the GMW v3.0 dataset and equations in Bunting et
al., (2022). The red dotted line represents the linear regression from 1996 to 2070, and red triangles show the Red
Sea and Gulf of Aden predicted mangrove area for 2046 and 2070 (R2 = 0.9). The blue dotted line represents
linear regression from 2010 to 2070 and blue triangles show the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province predicted
mangrove area for 2060 and 2070 (R 2 = 0.84). It is important to note that an exponential model (proportional
rate of decline) did not give a better fit to the data.

Criterion B: Restricted Geographic Distribution

Extent of Area of
Criterion
Province Occurrence Occupancy
2 B
EOO (Km ) (AOO) ≥ 1%
The Red Sea and Gulf of
1455130.0 53 LC
Aden

Criterion B measures the risk of ecosystem collapse associated with restricted geographical distribution,
based on standard metrics (Extent of Occurrence EOO, Area of Occupancy AOO, and Threat-defined
locations). These parameters were calculated based on the 2020 Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province
mangrove extent (GMW v.3). For 2020, AOO and EOO were measured as 53 grid cells 10 x 10 km and

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

1455130.0 km2, respectively (Figure 3). From total number of 296 cells, excluding from the AOO those grid
cells that contain patches of mangrove forest that account for less than 1% of the grid cell area, (< 1 Km2),
the AOO is measured as 53, 10 x 10 km grid cells (Figure 3, red grids). Therefore, Red Sea and Gulf of
Aden mangroves assessed as Least Concern (LC) under subcriteria B1 and B2.
Considering the very high number of threat-defined-locations, there is no evidence of plausible catastrophic
threats leading to potential disappearance of mangroves across their extent. As a result, the Red Sea and Gulf
of Aden mangrove ecosystem is assessed as Least Concern (LC) under criterion B3.
Overall, the ecosystem is assessed as Least Concern (LC) under criterion B.

Figure 3. The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove Extent Of Occurrence (EOO) and Area Of Occupancy
(AOO) in 2020. Estimates based on 2020 GMW v3.0 spatial layer (Bunting et al., 2022). The red 10 x 10 km grids
(n=53.) are more than 1% covered by the ecosystem, and the black grids <1% (n= 243).

Criterion C: Environmental Degradation

Criterion C measures the environmental degradation of abiotic variables necessary to support the
ecosystem.
Subcriterion C1 measures environmental degradation over the past 50 years: There are no reliable data to
evaluate this subcriterion for the entire province, and therefore the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove
ecosystem is classified as Data Deficient (DD) for subcriterion C1.
Subcriterion C2 measures environmental degradation in the future, or over any 50-year period, including
from the present. In this context, the impact of future sea-level rise (SLR) on mangrove ecosystems was
assessed by adopting the methodology presented by Schuerch et al. (2018). The published model was

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

designed to calculate both absolute and relative change in the extent of wetland ecosystems under various
regional SLR scenarios (i.e medium: RCP 4.5 and high: RCP 8.5), with consideration for sediment accretion.
Therefore, Schuerch et al. (2018) model was applied to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove ecosystem
boundary, using the spatial extent in 2010 from Giri et al. (2011) and assuming mangrove landward
migration was not possible.
According to the results, under an extreme sea-level rise scenario of a 1.1 meter rise by 2100, the projected
submerged area is ~ -67.1% by 2060, which is above 50% but below the 80% risk threshold (Figure 4).
Therefore, considering that no mangrove recruitment can occur in a submerged system (100% relative
severity), but that -67.1% of the ecosystem extent will be affected by SLR, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
mangrove ecosystem is assessed as Endangered (EN) for subcriterion C2.
Subcriterion C3 measures change in abiotic variables since 1750. There is a lack of reliable historic data on
environmental degradation covering the entire province, and therefore the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
province is classified as Data Deficient (DD) for this subcriterion.
Overall, the ecosystem is assessed as Endangered (EN) under criterion C.

Figure 4. Predicted percentage of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove forest submerged by 2060 under the
IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario (1.1 m SLR by 2100). Predictions are based on the model of Schuerch et al., 2018 with
adjusted parameters: assuming no accommodation space available, constant sediment supply over time and no
delta subsidence. The baseline corresponds to the spatial extent of mangroves in 2010 (Giri et al., 2011). Colour
lines represent the Dynamic Interactive Assessment Model (DIVA coastline), and do not reflect spatial
distribution of mangroves.

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Criterion D: Disruption of biotic processes or interactions

The global mangrove degradation map developed by Worthington and Spalding (2018) was used to assess
the level of biotic degradation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province. This map is based on degradation
metrics calculated from vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, SAVI, NDMI) using Landsat time series (≈2000 and
2017). These indices represent vegetation greenness and moisture condition.
Mangrove degradation was calculated at a pixel scale (30 m resolution), on areas intersecting with the 2017
mangrove extent map. Mangrove pixels were classified as degraded if two conditions were met: 1) at least 10
out of 12 degradation indices showed a decrease of more than 40% compared to the previous period; and 2)
all twelve indices did not recover to within 20% of their pre-2000 value (detailed methods and data are
available at: (maps.oceanwealth.org/mangrove-restoration/). The decay in vegetation indices has been used
to identify mangrove degradation and abrupt changes, including mangrove die-back events, clear-cutting,
and logging; as well as to track mangrove regeneration (Lovelock et al., 2017; Santana, 2018; Murray et al.,
2020; Aljahdali et al., 2021; Lee et al., 2021). However, it is important to consider that changes observed in
the vegetation indices can also be influenced by data artifacts (Akbar et al., 2020). Therefore, a relative
severity level of more than 50%, but less than 80%, was assumed.
The results from this analysis show that over a period of 17 years (~2000 to 2017), 1.76% of the Red Sea
and Gulf of Aden mangrove area is classified as degraded, resulting in an average annual rate of degradation
of 0.1%. Assuming this trend remains constant, +5.19% of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove area will
be classified as degraded over a 50-year period. As less than 50 % of the ecosystem will meet the category
threshold for criterion D, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove province is assessed as Least Concern
(LC) under subcriterion D2b.
No data were found to assess the disruption of biotic processes and degradation over the past 50 years
(subcriterion D1) or since 1750 (subcriterion D3). Thus, both subcriteria are classified as Data Deficient
(DD).
Overall, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden ecosystem remains Least Concern (LC) under criterion D.

Criterion E: Quantitative Risk

No model was used to quantitatively assess the risk of ecosystem collapse for this ecosystem; hence
criterion E was Not Evaluated (NE).

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

5. Summary of the Assessment

CRITERION
A. Reduction in A1 A2 A3
Geographic Past 50 years Future or any 50y period Historical (1750)
Distribution NT NT DD

B1 B2 B3
B. Restricted Geo. Extent of Occurrence Area of Occupancy # Threat-defined
Distribution Locations < 5
LC LC LC

C1 C2 C3
C. Environmental Past 50 years (1970) Future or any 50y period Historical (1750)
Degradation
DD EN DD

D1 D2 D3
D. Disruption of biotic Past 50 years (1970) Future or Any 50y period Historical (1750)
processes
DD LC DD
E. Quantitative Risk
NE
analysis
OVERALL RISK
EN
CATEGORY
EN= Endangered, LC= Least Concern, NT= Near Threatened, and DD= Data Deficient, NE= Not Evaluated

Overall, the status of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove ecosystem is assessed as Endangered (EN).

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Authors:
Ghoraba, S.M.M., Almahasheer, H., Siddig, A.A.H., Nagi, H.M. & Suárez, E.L.

Acknowledgments
The development of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Mangrove Red List of Ecosystems was made possible
through the collaboration and dedication of Dr. Awatif Abdelgadir Sugga, Red Sea University (RSU) – Sudan
for providing valuable materials that supported this work.

We would also like to thank the IUCN SSC Mangrove Specialist Group and the Global Mangrove Alliance
Science Working group, for their support in the delineation of the level 4 mangrove units that were the
basis for this analysis. Special thanks to José Rafael Ferrer-Paris for his contribution to the production of the
general ecosystem description template for the RLE mangrove assessments. We also wish to acknowledge
Thomas Worthington for kindly providing the spatial data on mangrove degradation.

Peer revision:
Donald Macintosh
Marcos Valderrábano

Web portal:
http://iucnrle.org/

Disclaimer:
The designation of geographical entities in this publication, and the presentation of the material, do not
imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any
country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN or other participating
organisations.

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Appendices

1. List of Key Mangrove Species

List of plant species considered true mangroves according to Red List of Threatened Species (RLTS)
spatial data (IUCN, 2022). We included species whose range maps intersected with the boundary of the
marine provinces/ecoregions described in the distribution section. RLTS category, LC= Least Concern.
Class Order Family Scientific name RLTS category
Magnoliopsida Lamiales Acanthaceae Avicennia marina LC
Magnoliopsida Malpighiales Rhizophoraceae Rhizophora mucronata LC

2. List of Associated Species

List of taxa associated with mangrove habitats in the Red List of Threatened Species (RLTS) database
(IUCN, 2022). We included only species with entries for Habitat 1.7: “Forest - Subtropical/Tropical
Mangrove Vegetation above high tide level” or Habitat 12.7 for “Marine Intertidal - Mangrove Submerged
Roots”, suitability recorded as suitable with any seasonality except passage, and presence recorded as
“Extant” or “Possibly Extinct” and origin marked as “Native” or “Reintroduced”. Common names are those
shown in the RLTS, except common names between brackets, which are from other sources. We included
species whose range maps intersected with the boundary of the marine provinces/ecoregions described in the
Distribution section. RLTS category: CR= Critically Endangered, EN= Endangered, VU= Vulnerable, LC=
Least Concern, NT= Near Threatened, and DD= Data Deficient.

Class Order Family Scientific name RLTS Common name

category

Actinopterygii Perciformes Sparidae Acanthopagrus berda LC Picnic Seabream

Acanthopagrus
Actinopterygii Perciformes Sparidae bifasciatus LC Two-bar Seabream
Actinopterygii Albuliformes Albulidae Albula glossodonta VU Shortjaw Bonefish
Actinopterygii Tetraodontiformes Tetraodontidae Arothron hispidus LC White-spotted Puffer
Actinopterygii Tetraodontiformes Tetraodontidae Arothron immaculatus LC Immaculate Puffer
Actinopterygii Tetraodontiformes Tetraodontidae Arothron stellatus LC Stellate Puffer
Asterropteryx
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Gobiidae semipunctata LC Star-finned Goby
Atherinomorus
Actinopterygii Atheriniformes Atherinidae lacunosus LC Hardyhead Silverside
Actinopterygii Perciformes Carangidae Atule mate LC Yellowtail Scad
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Eleotridae Butis butis LC Crimson-tipped Gudgeon
Chelonodontops
Actinopterygii Tetraodontiformes Tetraodontidae patoca LC Milkspotted Puffer
Actinopterygii Elopiformes Elopidae Elops machnata LC (Tenpounder)
Actinopterygii Ophidiiformes Carapidae Encheliophis homei LC Silver Pearlfish
Actinopterygii Perciformes Epinephelidae Epinephelus coioides LC Orange-spotted Grouper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Epinephelidae Epinephelus tauvina DD Greasy Grouper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Leiognathidae Eubleekeria splendens LC Splendid Ponyfish
Actinopterygii Perciformes Leiognathidae Gazza minuta LC Toothed Ponyfish
Actinopterygii Perciformes Gerreidae Gerres filamentosus LC Whipfin Mojarra
Hippichthys
Actinopterygii Syngnathiformes Syngnathidae cyanospilos LC Bluespeckled Pipefish
Actinopterygii Syngnathiformes Syngnathidae Hippichthys spicifer LC Bellybarred Pipefish
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Gobiidae Istigobius ornatus LC Ornate Goby

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Class Order Family Scientific name RLTS Common name

category

Lagocephalus
Actinopterygii Tetraodontiformes Tetraodontidae guentheri LC Diamondback Puffer
Actinopterygii Tetraodontiformes Tetraodontidae Lagocephalus lunaris LC Lunartail Puffer
Actinopterygii Perciformes Leiognathidae Leiognathus equulus LC Common Ponyfish
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lethrinidae Lethrinus harak LC Thumbprint Emperor
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lethrinidae Lethrinus nebulosus LC Spangled Emperor
Lutjanus
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lutjanidae argentimaculatus LC Mangrove Red Snapper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lutjanidae Lutjanus ehrenbergii LC Blackspot Snapper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lutjanidae Lutjanus fulviflamma LC Dory Snapper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lutjanidae Lutjanus fulvus LC Blacktail Snapper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lutjanidae Lutjanus johnii LC John's Snapper
Actinopterygii Perciformes Lutjanidae Lutjanus sebae LC Red Emperor Snapper
Actinopterygii Elopiformes Megalopidae Megalops cyprinoides DD Indo-Pacific Tarpon
Monodactylus
Actinopterygii Perciformes Monodactylidae argenteus LC Silver Moony
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Gobiidae Mugilogobius mertoni LC Merton's Mangrove Goby
Novaculichthys
Actinopterygii Perciformes Labridae macrolepidotus LC Green-banner wrasse
Parupeneus
Actinopterygii Perciformes Mullidae barberinus LC Dash-and-dot goatfish
Actinopterygii Perciformes Mullidae Parupeneus forsskali LC Dash-and-dot Goatfish
Actinopterygii Clupeiformes Pristigasteridae Pellona ditchela LC Indian Pellona
Periophthalmus
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Gobiidae argentilineatus LC Barred Mudskipper
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Gobiidae Periophthalmus kalolo LC Kalolo Mudskipper
Actinopterygii Mugiliformes Mugilidae Planiliza subviridis LC Greenback Mullet
Actinopterygii Perciformes Ephippidae Platax orbicularis LC Orbiculate Batfish
Plectorhinchus
Actinopterygii Perciformes Haemulidae gibbosus LC Brown Sweetlips
Actinopterygii Perciformes Haemulidae Plectorhinchus pictus LC Trout Sweetlips
Plectorhinchus
Actinopterygii Perciformes Haemulidae plagiodesmus LC Barred Rubberlip
Actinopterygii Mugiliformes Mugilidae Planiliza subviridis LC Greenback Mullet
Actinopterygii Siluriformes Ariidae Plicofollis dussumieri LC Blacktip Sea Catfish
Psammogobius
Actinopterygii Gobiiformes Gobiidae biocellatus LC Sleepy Goby
Actinopterygii Pleuronectiformes Paralichthyidae Pseudorhombus arsius LC Largetooth Flounder
Actinopterygii Clupeiformes Clupeidae Sardinella albella LC White Sardinella
Actinopterygii Clupeiformes Clupeidae Sardinella melanura LC Blacktip Sardinella
Actinopterygii Clupeiformes Engraulidae Thryssa baelama LC Baelama Anchovy
Actinopterygii Anguilliformes Muraenidae Uropterygius concolor LC Brown Moray Eel
Siderastrea
Anthozoa Scleractinia Siderastreidae savignyana LC (African pillow coral)
Aves Accipitriformes Accipitridae Accipiter minullus LC Little Sparrowhawk
Aves Accipitriformes Accipitridae Accipiter toussenelii LC Red-chested Goshawk
Aves Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Actitis hypoleucos LC Common Sandpiper
Aves Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Alcedo atthis LC Common Kingfisher
Aves Psittaciformes Psittacidae Alexandrinus krameri LC Rose-ringed Parakeet
Amaurornis
Aves Gruiformes Rallidae phoenicurus LC White-breasted Waterhen
Aves Suliformes Anhingidae Anhinga rufa LC African Darter
Aves Passeriformes Cisticolidae Apalis flavocincta LC Brown-tailed Apalis
Aves Caprimulgiformes Apodidae Apus affinis LC Little Swift
Aves Caprimulgiformes Apodidae Apus caffer LC White-rumped Swift

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Class Order Family Scientific name RLTS Common name

category

Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Ardea brachyrhyncha LC Yellow-billed Egret

Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Ardea cinerea LC Grey Heron
Aves Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Actitis hypoleucos LC Common Sandpiper
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Ardea goliath LC Goliath Heron
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Ardea purpurea LC Purple Heron
Aves Pelecaniformes Threskiornithidae Bostrychia hagedash LC Hadada Ibis
Aves Charadriiformes Burhinidae Burhinus senegalensis LC Senegal Thick-knee
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Butorides striata LC Green-backed Heron
Calherodius White-backed Night-
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae leuconotus LC heron
Camaroptera
Aves Passeriformes Cisticolidae brachyura LC Bleating Camaroptera
Aves Passeriformes Hirundinidae Cecropis abyssinica LC Lesser Striped Swallow
Aves Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Ceryle rudis LC Pied Kingfisher
Aves Charadriiformes Charadriidae Charadrius dubius LC Little Ringed Plover
Aves Charadriiformes Charadriidae Charadrius mongolus LC Lesser Sandplover
Aves Ciconiiformes Ciconiidae Ciconia microscelis LC African Woollyneck
Aves Passeriformes Nectariniidae Cinnyris cupreus LC Copper Sunbird
Aves Passeriformes Nectariniidae Cinnyris pulchellus LC Beautiful Sunbird
Aves Passeriformes Nectariniidae Cinnyris venustus LC Variable Sunbird
Aves Accipitriformes Accipitridae Clanga clanga VU Greater Spotted Eagle
Aves Columbiformes Columbidae Columba arquatrix LC African Olive-pigeon
Aves Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Corythornis cristatus LC Malachite Kingfisher
Aves Passeriformes Nectariniidae Cyanomitra olivacea LC Olive Sunbird
Dendropicos
Aves Piciformes Picidae fuscescens LC Cardinal Woodpecker
Aves Piciformes Picidae Dendropicos goertae LC Grey Woodpecker
Aves Passeriformes Malaconotidae Dryoscopus gambensis LC Northern Puffback
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Egretta ardesiaca LC Black Heron
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Egretta garzetta LC Little Egret
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Egretta gularis LC Western Reef-egret
Aves Coraciiformes Coraciidae Eurystomus glaucurus LC Broad-billed Roller
White-breasted
Aves Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Halcyon smyrnensis LC Kingfisher
Aves Accipitriformes Accipitridae Haliaeetus vocifer LC African Fish-eagle
Aves Passeriformes Acrocephalidae Hippolais languida LC Upcher's Warbler
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Ixobrychus minutus LC Common Little Bittern
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Ixobrychus sturmii LC Dwarf Bittern
Aves Charadriiformes Laridae Larus hemprichii LC Sooty Gull
Aves Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Megaceryle maxima LC Giant Kingfisher
Aves Coraciiformes Meropidae Merops albicollis LC White-throated Bee-eater
Northern Carmine Bee-
Aves Coraciiformes Meropidae Merops nubicus LC eater
Aves Coraciiformes Meropidae Merops persicus LC Blue-cheeked Bee-eater
Aves Coraciiformes Meropidae Merops superciliosus LC Olive Bee-eater
Aves Suliformes Phalacrocoracidae Microcarbo africanus LC Long-tailed Cormorant
Aves Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Numenius arquata NT Eurasian Curlew
Aves Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Numenius phaeopus LC Whimbrel
Black-crowned Night-
Aves Pelecaniformes Ardeidae Nycticorax nycticorax LC heron
Eastern Black-headed
Aves Passeriformes Oriolidae Oriolus larvatus LC Oriole
Aves Strigiformes Strigidae Otus senegalensis LC African Scops-owl

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Class Order Family Scientific name RLTS Common name

category

Aves Accipitriformes Pandionidae Pandion haliaetus LC Osprey

Aves Passeriformes Paridae Parus major LC Great Tit
Aves Pelecaniformes Pelecanidae Pelecanus rufescens LC Pink-backed Pelican
Aves Passeriformes Phylloscopidae Phylloscopus collybita LC Common Chiffchaff
Aves Passeriformes Phylloscopidae Phylloscopus tristis LC Siberian Chiffchaff
Aves Passeriformes Phylloscopidae Phylloscopus trochilus LC Willow Warbler
Aves Pelecaniformes Threskiornithidae Platalea leucorodia LC Eurasian Spoonbill
Brown-throated Wattle-
Aves Passeriformes Platysteiridae Platysteira cyanea LC eye
Aves Charadriiformes Charadriidae Pluvialis fulva LC Pacific Golden Plover
Aves Gruiformes Heliornithidae Podica senegalensis LC African Finfoot
Aves Passeriformes Cisticolidae Prinia gracilis LC Graceful Prinia
Aves Passeriformes Cisticolidae Prinia subflava LC Tawny-flanked Prinia
Streptopelia
Aves Columbiformes Columbidae semitorquata LC Red-eyed Dove
Aves Passeriformes Sylviidae Sylvia atricapilla LC Eurasian Blackcap
Aves Passeriformes Macrosphenidae Sylvietta brachyura LC Northern Crombec
Aves Passeriformes Macrosphenidae Sylvietta leucopsis LC Eastern Crombec
Threskiornis
Aves Pelecaniformes Threskiornithidae aethiopicus LC African Sacred Ibis
Aves Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Todiramphus chloris LC Collared Kingfisher
Aves Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Tringa nebularia LC Common Greenshank
Aves Columbiformes Columbidae Turtur afer LC Blue-spotted Wood-dove
Aves Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Xenus cinereus LC Terek Sandpiper
Carcharhinus
Chondrichthyes Carcharhiniformes Carcharhinidae amblyrhynchoides VU Graceful Shark
Carcharhinus
Chondrichthyes Carcharhiniformes Carcharhinidae amboinensis VU Pigeye Shark
Carcharhinus
Chondrichthyes Carcharhiniformes Carcharhinidae melanopterus VU Blacktip Reef Shark
Chondrichthyes Myliobatiformes Dasyatidae Himantura uarnak EN Coach Whipray
Chondrichthyes Carcharhiniformes Carcharhinidae Negaprion acutidens EN Sharptooth Lemon Shark
Chondrichthyes Myliobatiformes Dasyatidae Pastinachus ater VU Broad Cowtail Ray
Chondrichthyes Rhinopristiformes Pristidae Pristis pristis CR Largetooth Sawfish
Chondrichthyes Rhinopristiformes Pristidae Pristis zijsron CR Green Sawfish
Chondrichthyes Myliobatiformes Dasyatidae Taeniura lymma LC Bluespotted Lagoon Ray
Chondrichthyes Myliobatiformes Dasyatidae Urogymnus granulatus VU Mangrove Whipray
(truncated mangrove
Gastropoda Sorbeoconcha Potamididae Cerithidea decollata LC snail)
Gastropoda Neogastropoda Conidae Conus varius LC (The freckled cone)
Gastropoda Littorinimorpha Littorinidae Littoraria undulata LC (The robust shell)
Gastropoda Ellobiida Ellobiidae Pedipes affinis LC NA
Gastropoda Sorbeoconcha Potamididae Pirenella conica LC NA
Holothuroidea Aspidochirotida Holothuriidae Holothuria impatiens DD Bottleneck Sea Cucumber
Holothuroidea Aspidochirotida Holothuriidae Holothuria parva DD NA
Holothuroidea Aspidochirotida Holothuriidae Holothuria scabra EN Golden Sandfish
Liliopsida Alismatales Hydrocharitaceae Enhalus acoroides LC (Tape Seagrass)
Liliopsida Alismatales Cymodoceaceae Halodule uninervis LC (Narrowleaf seagrass)
Liliopsida Alismatales Hydrocharitaceae Halophila ovalis LC (Spoon seagrass)
Thalassodendron (Sickle-leaved
Liliopsida Alismatales Cymodoceaceae ciliatum LC cymodocea)
Magnoliopsida Malvales Malvaceae Thespesia populnea LC Portia Tree
Magnoliopsida Caryophyllales Cactaceae Rhipsalis baccifera LC Mistletoe Cactus

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Class Order Family Scientific name RLTS Common name

category

Mammalia Carnivora Mustelidae Aonyx capensis NT African Clawless Otter

Chlorocebus
Mammalia Primates Cercopithecidae pygerythrus LC Vervet Monkey
Mammalia Sirenia Dugongidae Dugong dugon VU Dugong
African Straw-coloured
Mammalia Chiroptera Pteropodidae Eidolon helvum NT Fruit-bat
Mammalia Rodentia Muridae Rattus rattus LC House Rat
Mammalia Chiroptera Pteropodidae Rousettus aegyptiacus LC Egyptian Fruit Bat
Indian Ocean Humpback
Mammalia Cetartiodactyla Delphinidae Sousa plumbea EN Dolphin
Reptilia Squamata Viperidae Bitis arietans LC Puff Adder
Reptilia Crocodylia Crocodylidae Crocodylus niloticus LC Nile Crocodile
Crotaphopeltis
Reptilia Squamata Colubridae hotamboeia LC Red-lipped Snake
Eretmochelys
Reptilia Testudines Cheloniidae imbricata CR Hawksbill Turtle
Reptilia Squamata Gekkonidae Hemidactylus robustus LC Red Sea Leaf-toed Gecko
Reptilia Squamata Sphaerodactylidae Pristurus obsti LC (Mangrove semaphore
gecko)
Reptilia Testudines Trionychidae Trionyx triunguis VU African Softshell Turtle
Reptilia Squamata Varanidae Varanus niloticus LC Nile Monitor

3. National Estimates for subcriterion A1

To estimate the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden mangrove ecosystem extent in 1970, we gathered reliable
information on the mangrove area for each country within the province around this period (Table b). We then
estimated the area of mangroves in 1970 for each country, assuming a linear relationship between mangrove
extent and time. Finally, we summed up the country estimates to determine the total mangrove area in the
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province (Table a). We assumed that the percentage of mangrove extent by
country within the province remained constant over time, as the percentages did not change between 1996
and 2020 (GMW v3.0 dataset). Two temporal analyses, Almahasheer et al. (2015) and FAO (2007) were
used for estimating area of mangroves in 1970. It was found that trends diverge depending on data sources;
Almahasheer et al. (2015) reported the least estimate for mangroves area compared to FAO (2007) in 1970.
However, Bunting et al (2022) reported a higher estimate for 1996 compared to Almahasheer et al. (2015)
and FAO (2007) for 2000. Indeed, using mangrove area estimates from different sources can lead to
uncertainty (Friess and Webb, 2014)2. Results were represented by a plausible range between two categories
to overcome uncertainty. There were no consistent regional statistics or global studies available for this time
period. Thus, the estimates for 1970 should be considered only indicative.

2
Friess, D. A. and Webb, E. L. (2014). Variability in mangrove change estimates and implications for the assessment of
ecosystem service provision. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23 (7). 715-725 doi:10.1111/geb.12140

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

Table a. Estimated mangrove area in Km2 by country in 1970 and 2020. Estimates for 2020* mangrove area are
based on the Global Mangrove Watch Version 3 (GMW v3.0) dataset. The references used to calculate mangrove
area for each country in 1970 are listed below in Table b.

Country total Within province Country total Within province Within province
1970 1970
Year 2020* 2020* 1970**
Least estimate** Highest estimate***
Djibouti 7.5 7.5 10 10*** 10
Egypt 3.5 3.5 1.89 1.89 5
Eritrea 77.9 77.9 59.84 59.84 67.9
Saudi Arabia 76.0 66.5 42.02 186.1
Somalia 35.2 9.1 100.00 27.05*** 27.05
Sudan 8.1 8.1 4.47 4.47 5
Yemen 16.6 16.6 9.00 9.00 10.3
The Red Sea and
189.2 154.8 311.3
Gulf of Aden

Table b. List of selected studies considered to have reliable information on mangrove area for the period around
1970 in each country of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden province.

Mangrove
Country Year Reference
Area (ha)
Almahasheer, Hanan; Aljowair, Abdulaziz; Duarte, Carlos Manuel;
Mangroves of the Asian Irigoien, Xabier (2015): Mangrove cover in the Red Sea (1972-2013).
1972 5100
Red Sea shore** PANGAEA. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.855896

Almahasheer, Hanan; Aljowair, Abdulaziz; Duarte, Carlos Manuel;

Mangroves of the
Irigoien, Xabier (2015): Mangrove cover in the Red Sea (1972-2013).
African Red Sea 1972 6900
PANGAEA. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.855896
shore**
Mangroves of the Red 1972 12000 Almahasheer, Hanan; Aljowair, Abdulaziz; Duarte, Carlos Manuel;
Sea countries (Egypt, Irigoien, Xabier (2015): Mangrove cover in the Red Sea (1972-2013).
Saudi Arabia, Sudan, PANGAEA. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.855896
Yemen, Eritrea)**
FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
Djibouti*** 1985 1000
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Saudi Arabia*** 1980 21000 FAO (2007) The World's Mangroves 1980-2005. Asia.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e06.pdf
Saudi Arabia*** 1990 20000 FAO (2007) The World's Mangroves 1980-2005. Asia.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e06.pdf
Saudi Arabia*** 2000 20000 FAO (2007) The World's Mangroves 1980-2005. Asia.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e06.pdf
Saudi Arabia*** 2005 20000 FAO (2007) The World's Mangroves 1980-2005. Asia.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e06.pdf
Saudi Arabia*** 2004 3500 El-Juhany, L., 2009. Present status and degradation trends of
mangrove forests on the southern Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia.
American-Eurasian J. Agric. Environ. Sci. 6, 328e340.
FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
Somalia*** 1975 10000
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
Somalia*** 1980 9500
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
Somalia*** 1990 8600
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
Somalia*** 2000 7800
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
Somalia*** 2005 7300
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Egypt*** 1980 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Egypt*** 1990 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.

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 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Assessments

https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Egypt*** 2000 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Egypt*** 2005 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Sudan *** 1980 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Sudan *** 1990 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Sudan *** 2000 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Sudan *** 2005 500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Yemen *** 1980 1000 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Yemen *** 1990 9500 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Yemen *** 2000 9000 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf
Yemen *** 2005 9000 FAO (2007) The world's mangroves 1980-2005. Africa.
https://www.fao.org/3/a1427e/a1427e05.pdf

IUCN RLE | Mangroves of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden 27

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