Hobson Survey of Math Finance
Hobson Survey of Math Finance
1386
R EVIEW PAPER
Received 5 January 2004; accepted 2 August 2004; published online 5 October 2004
Finance is one of the fastest growing areas in mathematics. In some senses it is not
a discipline in its own right, but rather an application area in which mathematicians
with backgrounds in probability theory, statistics, optimal control, convex and func-
tional analysis and partial differential equations can bring to bear experiences and
results from their own fields to problems of real world interest.
In this survey we begin with the simplest possible financial model, and then give
an account of the Black–Scholes option pricing formula, in which the key ideas are
the replication of option pay-offs and pricing under the risk-neutral measure. Then
we move on to discuss other important problems in finance, including the general
theory for semi-martingale price processes, pricing in incomplete markets, interest-
rate models and credit risk. The emphasis is on techniques and methodologies from
stochastic processes.
Keywords: derivative pricing; Black–Scholes; incomplete markets;
stochastic calculus; martingale measures
1. Preamble
Despite the comparatively recent origins of the subject, mathematical finance is one
of the most important application areas of mathematics today. Three decades ago
the subject barely registered as a research area, but when in the early 1970s Fisher
Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton linked the well-developed notions of Brow-
nian motion and Itô calculus to the problems of derivative pricing and hedging, a
new and vibrant discipline was created. The celebrated Black–Scholes option-pricing
formula (the discovery and development of which earned Nobel prizes in 1997 for
Scholes and Merton, Black having died a couple of years previously) revolution-
ized the finance industry, facilitating the subsequent rapid expansion in the trading
of financial derivatives. The growth in volume of trading of these instruments has
been matched by the growth of mathematical finance as a research endeavour. This
has helped create new topics for mathematical inquiry, reinvigorating many exist-
ing areas, and developing bridges between previously unconnected subjects. Now
many mathematics departments in the United Kingdom and throughout the world
are developing research and teaching programmes in finance, and the output of these
programmes, both in terms of the research and the graduates, provides an important
resource for the City of London and elsewhere.
Mathematician’s Brownian motion was first introduced by Bachelier (1900), who
was motivated by an attempt to model the fluctuations of asset prices and to price
derivatives. Although he was the first researcher to characterize Brownian motion
and his work was well known to Kolmogorov and Doob, the impact of his work was
not recognized by the finance community for many years. (His name is, however, hon-
oured by the main international mathematical finance society.) Indeed it was much
later that Samuelson (1965) suggested using exponential Brownian motion to model
stock prices. In the exponential Brownian model the proportional price changes are
generated by a Brownian motion. Over a small time-interval the proportional price
changes are Gaussian random variables with a variance proportional to the length of
the interval, and price changes over disjoint intervals are uncorrelated. The exponen-
tial Brownian model reflects the limited liability (non-negativity) property of share
prices and, while it is not appropriate for all financial assets in all market conditions,
it remains the reference model against which any alternative dynamics are judged.
It was in a model with exponential Brownian assets that Black & Scholes (1973)
constructed a replicating portfolio and with it proposed a ‘fair’ price for a financial
derivative. (A derivative security or contingent claim is a financial instrument whose
pay-off is derived from, or contingent upon, the behaviour of some other underlying
asset. For example, a call option on a stock or share gives the option holder the
right, but not the obligation, to purchase one unit of the stock at a pre-specified
price called the strike.) Their ideas were quickly advanced by Merton (1973). The
key insight was that if it was possible to replicate the pay-off of the derivative as
the gains from trade from a dynamic, self-financing hedging strategy, then the initial
fortune required to finance that strategy was exactly the arbitrage-free price for the
option. Furthermore, since all the risks associated with the option were removed by
hedging, the price is independent of the risk preferences of the agent.
This argument was developed into a mathematical theory by Harrison & Kreps
(1979) and Harrison & Pliska (1981). These authors emphasized the central role
of probability theory and martingales (a martingale is a random process which is
as likely to go up as it is down, on average) and it is their stochastic theory that
we explain here, and which provides the foundation for much of the subsequent
development of the subject. Their key conclusion is that option prices are given
by expectations—but not expectations with respect to the real world or physical
measure. Instead prices are expectations with respect to the risk neutral measure
under which the discounted price of the underlying asset is a martingale.
In this survey we concentrate on the problems of derivative pricing. We begin with
an analysis of option pricing in the simplest possible one-period binomial model, the
conclusions from which—including the fact that there is a unique, preference inde-
pendent, fair option price—are subsequently mirrored in the Black–Scholes world.
We then investigate the extent to which the Black–Scholes model can be generalized
without destroying these key features.
When all options can be priced via replication, the model is complete. Otherwise
the model is incomplete. In this situation there is no universal scheme for pricing
options. Instead we compare and contrast some of the possible alternatives, and this
topic is the main theme of the article. In particular we discuss in some simple but
canonical settings how options can be priced and hedged under various investment
criteria.
No survey of mathematical finance can cover all areas of the subject in equal depth,
and any summary inevitably reflects the background and interests of the author. The
fact that this article stresses stochastic methods for derivative pricing in complete
and incomplete markets is a case in point. In the final few sections we cover, briefly,
some of the other important topics in finance, including interest-rate models and
credit risk.
below C, and infinite supply if it traded above C—the derivative must trade for the
arbitrage-free price C.
In this simple binary model the values of θ and φ can be calculated from (2.1) and
(2.2). We find θ = (hu − hd )/(x(u − d)) and φ = (uhd − dhu )/(R(u − d)), so that an
expression for the derivative price is
1 R−d u−R
hu + hd . (2.3)
R u−d u−d
There are two key observations to be made in this simple model which will inspire
our future analysis.
The first is that the key to option pricing is the concept of replication: the fact
that the fair price is determined by a trading strategy which creates the same pay-off
as the option. In the binomial model it is always possible to find θ and φ to solve
(2.1) and (2.2), so that replication is possible for all contingent claim pay-offs h.
The second key observation relates to the concept of martingale pricing. If we write
q = (R − d)/(u − d), then q ∈ (0, 1) and the derivative price (2.3) can be written as
1 1
{qhu + (1 − q)hd } = Eq [h(XT )],
R R
so that the option price is the discounted expected pay-off of the option, where
the expectation is taken with respect to the risk-neutral probabilities (q, 1 − q). The
probability q has the special property that the expected value of the discounted asset
price under the probabilities (q, 1 − q) is the initial value; i.e. q satisfies
1
x= (qxu + (1 − q)xd).
R
The discounted asset price is a martingale if we take expectations using the q proba-
bilities. Note that we have completed a full analysis of the problem without reference
to the probabilities of the various events under the real-world measure P.
Rather than focusing on the measure or probabilities, we can consider instead the
state-price density. Let p = P({ωu }) and define ζ via ζ0 = 1 and
q 1 (R − d)
ζT (ωu ) = = ,
pR pR (u − d)
(1 − q) 1 (u − R)
ζT (ωd ) = = .
(1 − p)R (1 − p)R (u − d)
Then (ζt Xt )t=0,T is a martingale, and the fair price of the option is E[ζT h(XT )].
The above model, which is essentially due to Cox et al . (1979), can be made more
realistic by extending it to cover several time-steps. (Indeed, since a random walk
converges to Brownian motion, the suitably scaled limit will be the continuous-time
model of the next section.) The contingent claim pricing problem can be solved by
backward induction and the derivative price is precisely the discounted expected
pay-off where the probabilities have been modified to make the discounted prices of
traded assets into martingales.
Note that if it is possible for the risky asset to take on more than two price values
at the end of the time-step, then the replication argument fails. For example, in a
trinomial model in which XT may take the values xu, xR, xd say, then the analogue
to (2.1) and (2.2) is a triple of simultaneous equations in two unknowns for which
there is no solution in general. Conversely, there are many choices of probabilities
which make the price process into a martingale.
It should be emphasized that (2.7) is not obtained by taking the Itô derivative of the
products in (2.5). Instead it is postulated as a modelling assumption, motivated by
the situation in discrete time. See the remarks in § 3 for a further discussion of this
issue.
A value process Vt which satisfies (2.7) is said to be self-financing. The term
captures the idea that no inputs or outputs of cash are needed to create Vt ; instead
all fluctuations in value come from the investment in the risky asset and bond.
Further, if Vt solves (2.5), then, once θt has been chosen, φt is determined via the
relationship φt Rt = Vt − θt Xt . In particular, we do not need to model φ explicitly;
φt merely represents the number of bonds we can buy with the cash surplus after
we purchase θt units of Xt . Sometimes we write V θ to stress the dependence of the
self-financing value process on the strategy θ, or V v,θ if we also wish to stress the
starting wealth. It follows that we can rewrite (2.7) as
dVtθ = θt (dXt − rXt dt) + rVtθ dt, (2.8)
which, given the stochastic dynamics of Xt is equivalent to
dVtθ = θt Xt σ(dWt + λ dt) + rVtθ dt, (2.9)
where λ = (ν − r)/σ is the Sharpe ratio of the risky asset. It turns out to be much
more convenient to work with the Sharpe ratio λ rather than the drift ν, so that ν
will not be mentioned again.
Consider now the problem of pricing a contingent claim with non-negative pay-off
h(XT ) at time T .
Define a super-replicating strategy to be a pair (v, θ) such that the wealth process
V v,θ , defined via V0v,θ = v and V v,θ , solves (2.8), satisfies Vtv,θ 0 and VTv,θ h(XT ),
P-almost surely. A replicating strategy has VTv,θ = h(XT ). The key idea is that, if
there exists a super-replicating strategy for initial wealth v, then an agent would
be at least as happy to receive initial fortune v and to follow trading strategy θ, as
to receive the option. Hence the no-arbitrage principle gives us that v is an upper
bound on the fair price of the claim.
Consider X̃t = R0 Xt /Rt . We will use a superposed tilde to denote a discounted
quantity. We have
R0 X t R0 Xt dXt
dX̃t = d = − r dt ,
Rt Rt Xt
which in our case can be simplified to
dX̃t = X̃t σ(dWt + λ dt). (2.10)
Now consider the discounted process = Ṽtθ R0 Vtθ /Rt . If V is self-financing, then V θ
θ
Suppose, for a brief moment, that λ = 0 and X̃t is a martingale. Then we can take
T
expectations in (2.12) and, provided that 0 θt dX̃t is a true martingale and not just
a local martingale, we can deduce a value for v. This value represents the replication
price for the contingent claim.
Now remove the assumption that λ = 0, so that the discounted price is not a mar-
tingale. Suppose, however, that we can find a new probability measure Q, equivalent
to P, such that the stochastic integral in (2.12) is a martingale under Q. Then the
identities in (2.12) hold Q-almost surely and taking expectations under Q we have
the formula
Q R0
v=E h(XT ) . (2.13)
RT
This gives us the fair price of the option. The measure Q is a computational device,
but it is extremely powerful in that it leads us to the option price.
Motivated by the above analysis, our goal is to find a measure Q under which the
price process is a martingale, or to use a language more familiar to economists, to
find a state-price density process ζt such that ζt Xt is a martingale.
Define the change of measure density Zt via
Zt = exp(−λWt − 12 λ2 t)
and let Q and ζt be given by
R0
Q(A) = E[ZT IA ] and ζt = Zt . (2.14)
Rt
The probability measure Q is then equivalent to P and, by the Cameron–Martin–
Girsanov formula (see the appendix), W Q defined via WtQ = Wt + λt is a Q-Brownian
motion. Hence (see (2.10)), dX̃t = σ X̃t dWtQ and X̃ is a Q-martingale. Alternatively,
where θtΠ = ψt /σ X̃t and dX̃s = X̃s σ dWsQ . Then Πt defined via Πt = Rt Π̃t /R0 sat-
isfies Π0 = v, Πt 0 and ΠT = h(XT ), P-almost surely, with dynamics
dΠt = θtΠ (dXt − rXt dt) + rΠt dt.
Hence Πt defines the value process of a self-financing, super-replicating (and indeed
replicating) strategy with initial value v = EQ [R0 h(XT )/RT ] and it follows that v is
the fair price for the derivative. The associated hedging strategy is given by θtΠ .
Note that, in exact parallel with the binomial model, the key ideas are the repli-
cation of the option pay-off and the idea of finding a change of measure under which
the discounted price process is a martingale. That measure is then used for pricing.
The Sharpe ratio λ in the original model is irrelevant for pricing (as is the drift), and
instead volatility σ is the crucial parameter. The fact that we price the option by
replication means that an agent who sells the option for its fair price can remove all
the risk via a hedging strategy. This explains why the risk preferences of the agent
do not enter into the pricing formula.
To date we have identified the fair price of the option, but not the replicating
strategy θtΠ . To do this in general we need to know how to represent a martingale as
a stochastic integral in a Brownian filtration. This can be done by Clark’s theorem,
which is a special case of Malliavan calculus. Alternatively, for pay-offs which are
a function of XT alone (or perhaps a function of XT and a small number of other
path-dependent state variables—see the examples below) we can exploit the Markov
property to give an explicit form for the hedging strategy θ.
Suppose the option pay-off depends only on the value of the underlying asset
at time T . By the Markov property we can represent the time-t value Vt of the
contingent claim via
Q Rt
Vt = V (Xt , t) = Et h(XT ) . (2.16)
RT
Recall that dXt = σXt dWtQ + rXt dt. Then, by Itô’s formula, assuming that V is
sufficiently smooth,
dVt = V (Xt , t) dXt + 12 V (Xt , t)(dXt )2 + V̇ (Xt , t) dt
= V (Xt , t)Xt σ dW Q + [V (Xt , t)rXt + 12 V (Xt , t)σ 2 Xt2 + V̇ (Xt , t)] dt.
Conversely, if V is self-financing, then from (2.9)
dVt = θt Xt σ dWtQ + Vt r dt.
If V is the value function of a self-financing replicating portfolio, then these represen-
tations must be almost surely identical, and for (almost every) path realization we
must have θt = V (Xt , t) (for Lebesgue almost surely all t ∈ [0, T ]). Further, when
we equate finite variation terms we find that the value function must solve
LV = 0 subject to V (x, T ) = h(x), (2.17)
where
Lf (x, t) = rxf (x, t) + 12 σ 2 x2 f (x, t) + f˙(x, t) − rf (x, t). (2.18)
The partial differential equation (PDE) (2.17) for V can be shown to be equivalent
to the stochastic pricing formula (2.16) using the Feynman–Kac formula and is some-
times called the Black–Scholes pricing PDE. The hedging strategy θt = V (Xt , t) is
known as the delta hedge.
where the ess sup is taken over all stopping times τ with t τ T . If
h(x) = (x − K)+ (an American call), then provided there are no dividends it is never
optimal to exercise the option early and the American call has the same price as a
European call. However, for an American put option with h(x) = (K − x)+ , the
benefits of the convexity of the pay-off can sometimes be outweighed by the losses
associated with the fact that the undiscounted prices increase on average over time
and the pay-off function is decreasing. The pricing problem becomes an optimal
stopping problem in which the optimal exercise strategy has to be determined.
One fruitful approach to this problem is to consider it as a dynamic programming
problem. The martingale optimality principle allows us to write down a Hamilton–
Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. The pricing function solves V (x, t) h(x) and
LV = 0 on It = {x : V (x, t) > h(x)}, where, as before,
Lf = 12 σ 2 x2 f + rxf − rf + f˙,
together with a smooth fit condition on ∂It . This is a free boundary problem for
which there is no closed-form solution. It is related to the Stefan problem from fluid
dynamics (Friedman 2000).
The natural explanation for the European/American nomenclature would be that
options of appropriate style were traded in the relevant geographical markets. How-
ever, there is no strong evidence for this proposition. (Instead there is an anecdote
which claims that the adjectives were coined by an American researcher who wanted
to appropriate the more sophisticated and challenging option for his own continent.)
Whatever the origins of the terminology, it began a trend for naming options after
regions or countries—Asia, Bermuda, Paris, Russia and Israel each have an option
named after them.
Puts and calls have simple pay-offs and are sometimes called vanilla options in
honour of the most basic flavour of ice cream. Options with more complicated pay-
offs are said to be exotic.
pricing rule and hedging strategy is needed, perhaps aiming to super-replicate the
pay-off rather than aiming to replicate exactly.
Barrier options are closely related to digital and lookback options. A digital option
pays one if ever the underlying crosses the barrier, while the pay-off of a lookback is
contingent upon the maximum price attained by the underlying over the lifetime of
the option. In the Black–Scholes model there are formulae for all of these (see, for
example, Goldman et al . 1979).
in such a way that it is possible to give a simple representation formula for the price of
the Asian call. In general there are no closed-form solutions but the pricing problem
motivated several attempts to give a stochastic characterization of the distribution
(see Geman & Yor 1993), as well as various ideas for the pricing of Asian options
via Monte Carlo methods (with carefully chosen control variates (see Rogers & Shi
1995) or PDEs (Večer 2001)).
where G̃θ is the discounted gains from trade using a self-financing strategy θ. In
particular
T
θ
G̃t = g + θs dX̃s .
0
It turns out (see, for example, Andersen et al . 1998) that the optimal strategy is to
take θs = − sgn(G̃s ). Moreover, the price is related via the Skorokhod problem and
local times to that of a lookback option (Henderson & Hobson 2000; Delbaen & Yor
2002).
(d ) Numéraires
We saw in the analysis of the Black–Scholes model that it is convenient to work
with discounted prices. This switch can be described as a change of numéraire from
cash to bond, and the fundamental and very sound economic principle upon which
it is based is that the prices of contingent claims should not depend on the units in
which they are denominated.
As well as cash and bond, it is sometimes useful to use a risky asset, or the
gains from trade of a portfolio of risky assets as numéraire (see Geman et al . 1995;
Gourieroux et al . 1998). For example, consider pricing an exchange option (Margrabe
1978) with pay-off (XT − YT )+ , where the price processes Xt and Yt are given by
correlated Brownian motions. Then a change of numéraire from cash to Yt reduces
the pricing problem to that of pricing a standard call in the Black–Scholes model on
the single underlying Xt /Yt .
In general the form of a martingale measure Q depends on the choice of numéraire
N (see Branger 2004), and for clarity one should consider the pair (NT , QN ). Alter-
natively, we can fix attention on the state-price density
N0 dQN
ζT = ,
NT dP
which is numéraire independent.
with equality when U (VT ) = µζT almost surely. This inequality holds for all admis-
sible strategies, and all (positive) Lagrange multipliers so we have
Further, in standard cases (when the asymptotic elasticity of utility is less than one
(Kramkov & Schachermayer 1999)), there is no duality gap and there is equality
between the expressions in (2.20). The optimal solution given by a target wealth VT∗
and a Lagrange multiplier µ∗ is such that VT∗ = I(µ∗ ζT ), where I is the inverse to
the derivative of U . (In fact µ∗ is the value of the Lagrange multiplier such that
E[ζT VT∗ ] = E[ζT I(µ∗ ζT )] = v.)
In the analysis of the Merton problem for the Black–Scholes model presented here,
the dual problem is simpler than the primal problem, since the minimization takes
place over a single real-valued Lagrange multiplier rather than a random-variable
valued space of terminal wealths. If we think of the dual problem, then it is natural
to look for utilities whose Legendre transform Û takes a simple form. For example,
consider the class of dual functions given by Û (y) = Ay q−2 for q ∈ R and A a
positive constant. The class of associated utility functions is exactly the class of
hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utilities, which includes the power, logarithmic and
exponential utilities as special cases (see Merton 1990, p. 137).
Instead of aiming to maximize expected utility of terminal wealth it is also natural
to consider agents who wish to maximize expected discounted utility of consumption
over time. Let the wealth process be described by the equation
dVt = θt dXt + (r − θt Xt ) dt − ct dt,
where ct is the consumption rate. Then the problem facing the agent is to maximize
∞
E U (t, ct ) dt , (2.21)
0
or more especially to determine optimal investment and consumption pairs (θt , ct )t0 .
Again this problem can be attacked via primal or dual methods.
It should be noted that (2.21) is an unsatisfactory formulation in a couple of ways.
Firstly, (2.21) does not arise as the continuous time limit of a realistic situation
in which consumption occurs in discrete lumps and, secondly, the value function
depends only on the marginal distributions of the consumption process (ct )t0 , and
not on the joint distribution. Duffie & Epstein (1992) introduced stochastic differen-
tial utilities to address this second issue.
the other hand, we cannot take models which are too simple: if the discounted price
process is of finite variation then there is also arbitrage.
Our first task is to define the class of admissible portfolios and the associated value
functions. Let θt be an adapted process which represents the purchases of the risky
asset and define Ṽ θ , the associated self-financing value process with initial wealth
Ṽ0 , via t
Ṽtθ = Ṽ0 + θs dX̃s . (3.1)
0
As before, the investment φ in the bank account is implicit rather than explicit.
The integral on the right-hand-side of (3.1) is an Itô stochastic integral. In one
sense the choice of the Itô integral is arbitrary—we could equally use the Stratanovich
integral, for example, provided we include all the appropriate correction terms. But
in another sense the Itô stochastic integral is the only stochastic integral which makes
economic sense. To see this observe that, if the portfolio θt is a simple (piecewise
constant) strategy, then the discounted gains from trade from investment in the risky
asset are given by
G̃t = θti (X̃ti+1 ∧t − X̃ti ∧t ).
i
In particular the gains process is obtained by multiplying the increments of the
price process by the number of units of risky asset held at the beginning of the
relevant time-interval. The Itô integral shares this non-anticipatory property—it is
the integral of the integrand against the forward increments of the integrator.
We now define an admissible strategy as an adapted portfolio process θt for which
the associated value function is such that the Itô stochastic integral
T
θt dX̃t
0
is well defined and defined via (3.1) is bounded below: Ṽtθ −M for some con-
Ṽtθ
stant M . This definition is sufficient to rule out doubling strategies, but does not
prevent suicide strategies.
The key idea which underpinned pricing in the Black–Scholes model was the notion
of an equivalent martingale measure. In general it is too much to expect the under-
lying to become a martingale under a change of measure, and all we really need is
that the discounted traded asset process, and hence the discounted wealth process,
becomes a local martingale. We have the following tautological but important def-
inition: a measure Q, equivalent to P, under which the discounted asset price is a
local martingale is called an equivalent local martingale measure.
Before we discuss option pricing in general we would like to know whether the
model we have makes economic sense, and in particular whether it is consistent with
no arbitrage. (If there are arbitrage opportunities in the model— loosely described
to be ways of making profits at zero risk—then the model is unsustainable. Some or
indeed all agents would want to follow these profit making strategies and the current
market prices would not survive in equilibrium.) It turns out that the ‘right’ concept
to work with is the idea of ‘no free lunch with vanishing risk’ (NFLVR). Roughly
speaking there is a free lunch with vanishing risk if, when you look at the class of
contingent claims which can be replicated by an admissible portfolio, and then look
at the limits of sequences of such claims, there is a limit random variable which
is non-negative almost surely and positive with positive probability. The key result
is due to Delbaen & Schachermayer (1994, corollary 1.2), but see also Harrison &
Pliska (1981) for the finite case, and also Kreps (1981) and Delbaen & Schachermayer
(1998).
Theorem 3.1 (first fundamental theorem of asset pricing). Suppose X̃ is
a locally bounded semi-martingale. Then there exists an equivalent local martingale
measure if and only if the model satisfies NFLVR.
This theorem is one of the triumphs of the theory of mathematical finance in
the abstract semi-martingale setting. It was clear that one side of the if-and-only-
if condition should be the existence of an equivalent (local) martingale measure,
since this is a powerful assumption from which many natural and useful properties
follow easily. Thus the difficult part of the theorem involved finding the appropriate
definitions of admissible strategy and no arbitrage which would give the martingale
measure condition an economically meaningful interpretation.
Since we want to work with economically meaningful models, we assume that
the model satisfies NFLVR. Hence, we are entitled to assume that there exists an
equivalent local martingale measure. Set ZT = dQ/dP and Zt = Et [ZT ]. Then Zt
and Zt X̃t are both P-local martingales.
In the general setting we say that a pair (v, θ) is a super-replicating strategy for
H if the strategy is admissible and if the associated value process Ṽ v,θ satisfies
(3.1) subject to Ṽ0θ = v and ṼTv,θ H̃, the discounted pay-off of the claim. Then, by
the same analysis as before, if (v, θ) is a super-replicating strategy, then Zt Ṽtθ is a
P-supermartingale and
v E[ZT ṼTθ ] E[ZT H̃].
Hence E[ZT H̃] is a lower bound on the replication price of the option.
This raises the question as to whether there is a super-replicating strategy for
the option with initial wealth v. In the one-dimensional Brownian context we have
seen how the Brownian martingale representation theorem can be used to produce
a replicating strategy. In general it is not always the case that this is possible. The
condition under which replicating strategies can be found for all options can again
be related to a condition on the equivalent martingale measures, and is again given
in Delbaen & Schachermayer (1994).
Theorem 3.2 (second fundamental theorem of asset pricing). Every
bounded claim can be replicated if and only if there is only one equivalent local
martingale measure.
This is the subject of the next section.
4. Incomplete markets
Our analysis of the Samuelson–Black–Scholes model relied on two results from the
theory of stochastic processes and Brownian motion. Firstly, the Cameron–Martin–
Girsanov theorem guarantees the existence of an equivalent martingale measure Q
under which the discounted price process Xt is a martingale (or, equivalently, the
existence of a state-price density ζt with the property that ζt Rt and ζt Xt are mar-
tingales). Secondly, the Brownian martingale representation theorem says that any
random variable whose value is known at time T can be written as its expected value
plus a stochastic integral against Brownian motion. In the Black–Scholes market set-
ting this translates into the result that any option pay-off can be written as the price
plus the gains from trade from a dynamic investment strategy in the underlying
asset.
In the previous section we saw that the existence of a martingale measure is related
to the question of whether a model makes economic sense. In this section we consider
the role of the martingale representation theorem, and especially the situation in
which it is no longer possible to write every claim as the terminal value of a trading
strategy.
Recall that RT , which we no longer assume to be deterministic, is the value of
R0 units of cash invested in the bank account. We say that a contingent claim H is
replicable if it can be written
T
RT
H= v+ θs dX̃s
R0 0
for an admissible trading strategy θ, or equivalently if the option pay-off can be repli-
cated via a dynamic hedging strategy. In this case there is a unique fair replication
price for the option
Q R0
v=E H = E[ζT H],
RT
where Q is any martingale measure and ζT is the related state-price density. An
option which can be replicated in this way is said to be redundant in the sense that
adding the option to the (perfect frictionless) economy has no impact since its pay-off
can be created synthetically through dynamic trading. If every claim is redundant,
then the market is complete.
In an incomplete market it is not possible to replicate every contingent claim.
For such claims there is no replication price, and the Black–Scholes theory we have
introduced has nothing to say about the fair price of the option. Instead we have
reached what Hakansson (1979) calls the ‘catch 22 of option pricing’: the claims we
can price are redundant, and the claims that are not redundant we cannot price.
The problem facing economists (and financial mathematicians) is to determine a
method for pricing non-redundant options which is consistent with the Black–Scholes
methodology for those derivatives that can be replicated.
It is clear that, if there is more than one state-price density, then there exists a
claim for which it is possible to define more than one price (via expectation) and
hence that that option cannot be replicated. The converse is also true, so that, if
there exists a unique equivalent local martingale measure, then the model is complete
and every claim can be replicated. This is the second fundamental theorem of asset
pricing.
Incompleteness can arise from many sources, for example, transaction costs
(Hodges & Neuberger 1989; Davis et al . 1993; Soner et al . 1995), jump models
(Merton 1976; Bardhan & Chao 1996), constraints on the trading strategies (Soner
& Touzi 2001; Cvitanić & Karatzas 1993) or stochastic volatility (Hull & White 1987;
Heston 1993; Fouque et al . 2000) and to some extent the best approach to pricing
and hedging must depend on the context. However, fundamentally, one has to answer
the question of how to price and hedge a contingent claim H which is completely
independent of the remainder of the model. Our goal is to analyse two simple models
which exhibit incompleteness.
Provided that E[ZT ] = 1 we can define a (local) martingale measure Q via a process
similar to (2.14) (see Frey 1997). (The first moment condition guarantees that Q is
a probability measure). Then ζt = e−rt Zt is a state-price density and ζt Xt is a P
(local) martingale. Under Q,
t t
WtQ = Wt + λu du and BtQ = Bt + ξu du
0 0
are Brownian motions.
t Note that the change of drift on Wt is enforced by the require-
ment that Wt + 0 λu du is a martingale, whereas the change of drift on Bt is unde-
termined. The classξ of changes of measure is parametrized by the process ξ, and we
write Qξ and (W Q , B Q ) ≡ (W ξ , B ξ ) to emphasize this.
ξ
The first two terms correspond to the initial wealth and discounted gains from trade,
respectively, of a dynamic hedging strategy involving investments in the traded asset
and bank account. However, it is not possible to trade on the second asset and in
general the claim cannot be replicated.
over initial wealths v and trading strategies θ. The resulting optimal values are
the mean–variance price and hedge, respectively. It turns out that in markets with
(2) (2)
zero interest rates v = E[HζT ], where ζT is the variance-optimal state-price den-
sity which is independent of the choice of derivative H (see Schweizer 1996). For
extensions of this idea see Gourieroux et al . (1998) on stochastic interest rates and
Grandits & Krawczyk (1998) on Lp norms on the hedging error.
An alternative criterion is proposed by Föllmer & Leukert (2000). They propose
minimizing the shortfall E[(H − VTv,θ )+ ]. This overcomes the disadvantage of the
quadratic hedging condition which penalizes super-replication, but at the cost of
tractability.
where the supremum is taken over the set of martingale measures. Thus the super-
replication price is the price under the worst case martingale measure.
which has been the subject of particular attention in the literature (for example,
Rouge & El Karoui 2000; Frittelli 2000) is the minimal entropy martingale measure.
Consider now our canonical models of incomplete markets. Suppose, following
Hobson (2004), that we have a representation of the mean–variance trade-off process
of the form
T T T T
1 1
λ2 du = c + ηu (dWu + λu ) du + χu dBu + χ2u du. (5.2)
2 0 0 0 2 0
Note that this is an identification of random variables and not of processes, and that
the solution consists of a constant c and integrands η and ξ. This equation can be
viewed as an example of a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) (see
Mania et al . 2003). BSDEs provide a general framework for many characterization
problems in finance (El Karoui et al . 1997).
Now consider f (z) = z ln z, and E[f (ZTξ )] for martingale measures ZTξ given by
(4.5). We have
ξ
ξ ξ Qξ dQ
E[ZT ln ZT ] = E ln
dP
and, using the representation (4.5),
ξ T T T T
dQ 1 1
ln =− ξ
λu dWu + λ du −
2 ξ
ξu dBu + χ2 du
dP 0 2 0 0 2 0
T T T
1
=c+ (ηu − λu ) dWuξ + (χu − ξu ) dBuξ + (χu − ξu )2 du,
0 0 2 0
(5.3)
where we have used (5.2) and the fact that, under Qξ , W ξ given by dWtξ = dWt +λt dt
and B ξ given by dBtξ = dBt + ξt dt are Brownian motions. Then, assuming that the
stochastic integrals in (5.3) are true martingales we have
T
ξ ξ 1 Qξ
E[ZT ln ZT ] = c + 2 E (χu − ξu ) du c,
2
0
with equality for ξ = χ. Hence the problem of finding the minimal entropy martingale
measure reduces to finding the solution of (5.2). More generally, (5.2) is the special
case, corresponding to q = 1, of a more general formula which covers distance metrics
of the form f (x) = xq /(q(q − 1)).
In the non-traded assets model described in § 4 a the left-hand side of (5.2) is
constant, and there is a trivial solution corresponding to η ≡ 0 ≡ χ. (In this case
all the minimal distance measures are identical and equal to the Föllmer–Schweizer
minimal martingale measure.) Alternatively, in the stochastic volatility model, if ρ is
constant and Y is an autonomous diffusion, then there is a stochastic representation
of the solution to (5.2) given in Hobson (2004).
Once a minimal distance martingale measure Q∗ has been identified, it can be
used for pricing in the sense that we can define the option price to be
Q∗ R0
E H = E[ζT∗ H],
RT
where ζT∗ is the state-price density associated with the pricing measure Q∗ . The
resulting prices are linear in the number of units of claim sold, and as we shall see
later they are related to the marginal price of the claim for a utility maximizing
agent. Further, if we can solve the analogue of (5.2) for a variety of q, then we can
begin to compare option prices under different martingale measures (see Henderson
et al . 2003).
The idea is that φ represents the amount of compensation which an agent would
demand in order to agree to sell the claim H (or the size of the reserves he should
hold if he has outstanding obligations amounting to H). The key result of Artzner
et al . (1999) is that, at least for finite sample spaces, there is a representation of a
coherent pricing measure of the form
Convex pricing measures are associated with a pricing mechanism which is nonlinear
in the number of units of the claim. Again there is a representation of a convex
pricing measure of the form
where now P is the set of all probability measures, and α is a penalty function.
For example, to recover the super-replication price we may take α(Q) = 0 if Q is a
martingale measure, and α(Q) = ∞ otherwise.
With further work, and under further assumptions (see Henderson & Hobson
2002a; Hobson 2003; Hugonnier et al . 2004) it is possible to show that for positive
claims
p(k)
lim = E[ζT0 H],
k↓0 k
so that the marginal bid price is the discounted expected pay-off under a minimal
distance state-price density. For small claim amounts it is also possible to consider
the total price as an expansion in k (see Henderson & Hobson 2002b; Henderson
2002).
As an explicit example in the stochastic volatility model suppose r = 0 and U (v) =
−e−v so that Û (y) = y ln y. Then, when we take the infimum over µ we find that
inf inf E[Û (µζT ) + µ(v + kζT H)] = exp − 1 − v − inf {kE[ζT H] + E[ζT ln ζT ]}
µ ζT ζT
The problem of minimizing the entropy was discussed in § 5 c, but in general the
problem of finding the first infimum in (5.6) is hard. There are, however, explicit
solutions in the non-traded asset model (see Henderson & Hobson 2002a).
The expression in (5.6) shows that the utility indifference price for exponential
utility corresponds to a convex risk measure. Note that exponential utility is unique
in that wealth factors out of the problem, to leave option prices which are independent
of wealth. This is a necessary condition for a risk measure.
6. Interest-rate modelling
To date we have concentrated on markets in which the underlying is a risky asset
which can be modelled by a diffusion process. Now we want to consider an interest-
rate market in which the characteristics of the traded assets are different. Three
canonical texts on the subject are Musiela & Rutkowski (1997), Björk (1998) and
Cairns (2004).
Consider a frictionless market in which there is a bank account and a family
of zero-coupon bonds. A zero-coupon bond with maturity date T (a T -bond) is a
contract which guarantees to make a unit payment to the holder at time T . A T -
bond makes no intermediate payments and is typically a mathematical ideal rather
than a genuinely traded instrument. Let the time-t price of the T -bond be denoted
by p(t, T ), and then p(T, T ) = 1.
From the bond prices it is possible to deduce the instantaneous forward rates
f (t, T ) which solve f (t, T ) = −(∂/∂T ) ln p(t, T ) or equivalently
T
p(t, T ) = exp − f (t, s) ds ,
t
and the instantaneous short rate rt = f (t, t). The assumption is that the bank
account pays the instantaneous short rate as a stochastic rate of interest, and if
so this is equivalent to investing in a portfolio of ‘just maturing’ bonds. Given the
relationships between the short-rate, the bond prices and the forward prices we can
choose to model any of these.
but these prices are not the only ones consistent with no arbitrage.
We return to the problem we faced in the previous section: how do we choose an
appropriate measure Q. The two most popular solutions are to finesse the issue by
writing down the dynamics under Q, or to choose a market risk premium γt , whence,
under Q,
drt = σ(t, rt )(dWt + (λ(t, rt ) − γt ) dt).
Given a martingale measure Q we can price bonds and more complicated derivatives
such as options on bonds and interest-rate swaps, and in simple cases we can often
find analytical formulae for these quantities. However, these instruments cannot be
replicated, although, as in a stochastic volatility model, once it is assumed that one
bond is traded, all other zero-coupon bonds with shorter maturity can be hedged
through dynamic trading in that bond.
The initial condition {f (0, T )}T 0 can be specified by the initial market of bond
prices and forward rates.
When we switch to the martingale measure Q, under which the discounted traded
quantities (the discounted T -bonds) are martingales, we find that the forward rates
satisfy
T
Q
df (t, T ) = σ(t, T ) dWt + σ(s, T ) ds dt
t
and that, although the no-arbitrage conditions fix the drifts in (6.1), there is almost
complete freedom in modelling the volatility structure. Once the volatility coefficients
have been specified under P or Q the market is complete and any derivative can be
priced and replicated using d zero-coupon bonds as hedging instruments.
8. Final thoughts
Mathematical finance is concerned with the related problems of quantifying risk,
pricing risk and mitigating the impact of risk via hedging. In general we think of
these risks as arising from changes in the prices of underlying assets—stock prices,
exchange rates, interest rates—which are specified exogenously to the model. (But
one can ask where these prices come from (see, for example, Bick 1987; Cox et al .
1985), and what, if any, are the rational explanations of bubbles and market crashes.)
Given the prices of underlyings, the beautiful Black–Scholes–Merton theory gives
powerful insights into the way derivatives are priced, and leads us to the conclusion
that in perfect markets the prices of derivatives are fully determined.
In imperfect markets option prices are not fully determined. Market imperfections
can arise in many ways, some of which we have discussed in the article above, and
the first challenge facing mathematicians is to model these imperfections in a way
which is amenable to analysis. In some markets, such as energy or weather derivatives
(Brody et al . 2002), exponential Brownian motion is a poor descriptor of the price
process. In some markets liquidity issues mean that delta hedging is infeasible (Cetin
et al . 2004). In some markets agents may have differential information (Amendinger
et al . 1998; Föllmer et al . 1999). In all markets the ways that agents interact and
their relative market power (Cvitanić & Ma 1996; Platen & Schweizer 1998; Bank
& Baum 2004) can have a fundamental impact. These problems require careful and
sympathetic modelling.
The second challenge facing financial mathematics is to the relate the conclusions
from these models to real-world financial practice. This means that questions of
model fit and parameter estimation become crucial, together with an acknowledge-
ment that often the behaviour of agents is as much influenced by factors outside
the model, such as tax considerations or regulatory issues, as the predictions of a
sophisticated mathematical theory.
This review paper was written in partial fulfilment of the conditions of the Adams Prize (2003)
awarded to the author by the University of Cambridge and St John’s College, Cambridge. The
author is pleased to acknowledge the support of the EPSRC via an Advanced Fellowship, and to
thank the referees for pointing out various errors and for suggesting several clarifications. The
remaining errors and biases are the responsibility of the author.
where the first integral is an Itô stochastic integral and the second is Lebesgue–
Stieltjes. Sometimes it is convenient to abbreviate this expression to a stochastic
differential equation,
dZt = df (Wt , t) = f (Wt , t) dWt + [ 12 f (Wt , t) + f˙(Wt , t)] dt, (A 2)
but this differential version should be interpreted via the stochastic integral repre-
sentation (A 1). Itô’s formula can be extended to cover functions of semi-martingales
Zt = f (Yt , t) and to functions of more than one stochastic variable Zt = f (Yt1 , Yt2 , t).
The Cameron–Martin–Girsanov theorem (Rogers & Williams 2000, § IV.38.5) says
that if (Ω, F, P) is the canonical probability space supporting a Brownian motion W
(such that the filtration Ft satisfies the usual conditions), and if (Zt )0tT defined
via t t
1
Zt = exp ηs dWs − 2
ηs ds (A 3)
0 2 0
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