1. How can you estimate the current economic state of Sub-Saharan Africa?
Give
any arguments, statistic etc.
With the world’s largest free trade area and a 1.2-billion-person market, the continent
is creating an entirely new development path, harnessing the potential of its resources
and people.
The region is composed of low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income
countries, 20 of which are fragile or conflict-affected. Africa also has 13 small states,
characterized by a small population, limited human capital, and a confined land area.
The economic impact of the COVID-19 shock in Sub-Saharan Africa is severe.
However, countries in the region are continuing to weather the storm. Economic
activity in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have contracted by 2% in 2020,
reflecting a slower-than-expected spread of the virus and lower COVID-19-related
mortality in the region, strong agricultural growth, and a faster-than-expected
recovery in commodity prices. Nevertheless, COVID-19 has plunged the region into
its first recession in over 25 years, with activity contracting by nearly 5% on a per
capita basis. It has also exacerbated public debt vulnerabilities, which are high and
continue to rise in many countries. Vulnerable groups, such as the poor, informal
sector workers, women, and youth, suffered disproportionately from reduced
opportunities and unequal access to social safety nets. This situation could push up to
40 million people into extreme poverty, erasing at least five years of progress in
fighting poverty.
In East and Southern Africa, the growth contraction in 2020 is estimated at –3%, 0.9
percentage point less than projected in October 2020, mostly driven by South Africa
and Angola—its two largest economies. Disruptions in the tourism industry and
lockdowns caused substantial slowdowns in Botswana, Namibia, Madagascar, and
the island nations. Mining dependent economies such as Mozambique and Zambia
continued to experience output contractions in the second half of 2020. Growth in
Western and Central Africa contracted by 1.1% in 2020, less than projected in
October 2020 partly due to a less severe contraction in Nigeria, the subregion’s
largest economy, in the second half of the year. Real gross domestic product in the
subregion is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. Fragile countries
in the region are expected to experience a strong decline in growth as COVID-19
(coronavirus) exacerbates the drivers of fragility.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is expected to be multi-speed, with significant
variation across countries. Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, the region’s three
largest economies, are expected to return to growth in 2021, partly owing to higher
commodity prices, but the recovery will remain sluggish. Growth is projected to
rebound to 1.4% in Nigeria, 3% in South Africa, and 0.9% in Angola. Muted near-
term growth prospects and slow vaccine rollout in the largest economies will weigh
on the region’s outlook. Excluding Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, activity is
projected to expand at a more solid pace in the rest of the region with non-resource-
intensive countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya, and mining dependent
economies, such as Botswana and Guinea, are expected to see robust growth in 2021
driven by a rebound in private consumption and investment as confidence strengthens
and exports increase.
2. How can you estimate the current political state of Sub-Saharan Africa? Give
any arguments, statistic etc.
A democratic decline, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, is underway in sub-
Saharan Africa. More Africans live under fully or partially authoritarian states today
than at most points in the last two decades.
Even before the pandemic, an increasing number of African heads of state had moved
to undermine term limits or rig elections to remain in power. But COVID-19 has
given them greater leverage, providing further pretext for postponing elections in
Somalia and Ethiopia, muzzling opposition figures in Uganda and Tanzania, and
imposing restrictions on media across the continent. The enforcement of pandemic
restrictions by security services has often been brutal, provoking demonstrations in
Kenya and even in more advanced democracies such as South Africa.
As governments across the continent become, with some exceptions, more
authoritarian, Africans will be increasingly alienated from those claiming to represent
them. Political instability can manifest itself in severe episodes of violence, as is
already being seen in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria. Such turmoil will grow as
elites compete for power and citizens resist oppressive regimes, and will, in turn,
inhibit social and economic development, to the disadvantage of the continent’s
rapidly growing population. Taken together, these forces also drive internal
displacement and outward migration—both to other African countries and to Europe.
Addressing these issues will require grappling with long-standing grievances left
untreated and often exacerbated by the poor, sometimes brutal governance that is all
too common across the African continent.
In its 2021 report, Freedom House rated only eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa as
free. Of these eight, half are small island states: Cape Verde, Mauritius, Sao Tome
and Principe, and Seychelles. Others, such as Botswana, enjoy high levels of
economic and social development. Strong institutions of government are a common
feature, acting as a bulwark against self-interested leaders, such as former South
African President Jacob Zuma, who is now on trial for corruption.
