2024-04-02-ATRD - NS-Prabhudas Lilladher - Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) - Company Update - Margins ... - 107345933
2024-04-02-ATRD - NS-Prabhudas Lilladher - Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) - Company Update - Margins ... - 107345933
April 2, 2024 1
Aster DM Healthcare
India Financials:
April 2, 2024 2
Aster DM Healthcare
Revenues to grow at ~15% CAGR over FY24-26E EBITDA to grow at 27% CAGR over FY24-26E
India Revenue YoY gr. (%) (RHS) India EBITDA (Rs mn) India Margins (%) (RHS)
42477
48093
29840
36512
10.0
3530
4530
5854
7537
9450
10000 2000 5.0
0 -
0 -
FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
April 2, 2024 3
Aster DM Healthcare
Steady occupancy despite expansion of beds ARPOB improved ~9% CAGR over FY20-24
27700
30100
33500
36500
39250
20 10000
10
61
56
66
68
68
5000
0 0
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24
Geographical Revenue Mix (%) for 9MFY24 Geographical EBITDA Mix (%) for 9MFY24
Andhra & Andhra &
Telangana Telangana
12% 6%
Karnataka &
Maharashtra
Karnataka & 31%
Maharashtra Kerala
31% 57%
Kerala
63%
Source: Company, PL
Kerala cluster revenues grew at ~25% CAGR over FY20-23 with margins above 20%
16910
14890
4000 1000
8750
9350
1240
1240
2550
3560
3170
5.0
2000 500
0 0 -
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24
Source: Company, PL
April 2, 2024 4
Aster DM Healthcare
AP & Telangana cluster - Growth has been soft given most of units are smaller in size and under partnership
2790
3700
3440
3070
450
690
310
470
330
500 100
0 0 -
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24
Source: Company, PL
Karnataka & Maharashtra rev grew at ~23% CAGR with margin expansion of +600bps over FY20-23.
4330
6550
8170
7930
400
1280
1540
5.0
830
420
330
1000 200
0 0 -
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 9MFY24
Source: Company, PL
ESI/ECHS/CGHS State/Central
Schemes Others
4% 1%
2%
MVT
5%
Corporate
3%
TPA's Walk In
27% 58%
April 2, 2024 5
Aster DM Healthcare
Women's Health
6%
Cardiac Sciences
13%
Orthopaedics
7%
Nephrology And
Urology Neuro Sciences
7% 11%
Oncology Gastroenterology and Integrated
9% Liv er Care
9%
Source: Company, PL
Source: Company, PL
April 2, 2024 6
Aster DM Healthcare
Source: Company, PL (Note: Management plans to add brownfield 400-500 beds at ASTER CMI by FY26-27 instead of ASTER KLE
in Bangalore)
April 2, 2024 7
Aster DM Healthcare
Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
EBIT 7,848 10,134 12,730 15,377 Capital Work In Progress 2,551 2,551 2,551 2,551
Margin (%) 6.6 6.7 7.6 8.4 Goodwill 15,278 15,278 15,278 15,278
Non-Current Investments 683 683 683 683
Net Interest 3,292 4,003 3,828 3,653 Net Deferred tax assets (1,925) (1,925) (1,925) (1,925)
Other Income 783 350 500 600 Other Non-Current Assets - - - -
April 2, 2024 8
Aster DM Healthcare
April 2, 2024 9
Aster DM Healthcare
Price Chart Recommendation History
(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
500
1 12-Feb-24 BUY 500 440
Sep - 21
Sep - 22
Aug - 23
Mar - 22
Mar - 23
Feb - 24
7 29-May-23 BUY 335 270
8 06-Apr-23 BUY 265 240
April 2, 2024 10
Aster DM Healthcare
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Amnish
Digitally signed by Amnish Aggarwal