January 12, 2024
There's Gonna Be Hell To Pay
... if you're printing $2 (trillion) of helicopter money per year, I don't see how you get
a recession. - Fed expert Joseph Wang
Finding offense everywhere you look is just self-importance disguised as virtue -
Bridget Phetasy
Are we now at a time when our currencies are uninvestable? - Charles Gave
Markets
Updated Charts
No change in outlook . We are very near a top of some kind in the stock markets.
Wall Street Journal
An estimated 20% of global oil this year was bought and sold in currencies other than
the USD
Short Takes
In my crusade to help you with words, there is a new one out there. If someone does
not quite fit far-right or fascist, maybe neo-Confederate would fit the bill.
Ramaswamy is a weird dude who speaks a lot of truth to power. Separating the wheat
from the chaff is the challenge. RFK, Jr., may be weirder, but he also speaks truth to
power - less truth with more chaff included - but refreshing, nonetheless.
Well said - Peter Zeihan -
So when you hear an American politician say something incredibly stupid -
whether it is Florida's Matt Gaetz doing his Hateful Florida Man impression,
Michigan's Rashida Tlaib spouting something wildly racist, Massachusetts'
Elizabeth Warren making up math, or Colorado's Lauren Boebert saying…pretty
much anything - keep in mind that you are not their audience, even if one of
them is your representative in Congress. Each is pandering to a very specific
NATIONAL demographic - what they're looking for in return is not so much
votes but instead money.
Think about it -
U.S. Customs and Border Protection has released more than 2.3 million migrants into
the United States at the southern border under the Biden administration.
Ok, we know about Biden's mental challenges, and then Trump says this -
All I know about magnets is this, give me a glass of water, let me drop it on the
magnets, that’s the end of the magnets
(Kit ) Where's reality when you need it? (Hint - water is not an issue for magnets.)
Fascinating - from Quora -
During that extended period of pre-history people were uncommon. That’s true
for the species that preceded us as well. At around 1.2 million years ago
scientists estimated that there might have been as few as 18,500 individuals
capable of breeding.
Our ancestors became uncommon again during the ice ages, roughly 20 to 30
thousand years ago, when the total human population was in the tens of
thousands.
It's a real mess, and no one is serious about it. Biden is doing a terrible job. As for the
Republicans - Laura Ingraham tells Republicans to walk away from border deal
negations because Biden will take a “victory lap” if a deal is reached. Just sick.
2024 is clearly a plague year
I just saw a New York Times article on how to be healthy after 60. I figured it out
some time ago. Not smoking, etc, is important, but the bottom line is that you have to
choose your parents wisely and be lucky.
You know how important I think it is to keep on top of all things social justice.
Beth was telling me about a discussion she heard on some internet program, where
they were talking about just this issue. White privilege, toxic males, etc.
The commentators thought that the ultimate privilege is hot girl privilege, and, when
you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.
Not racial, and, depending on the person, not necessarily a gender thing, either.
Who gets the quarterback, back-stage passes and the ability to bypass any line at any
club anytime?
Male privilege includes the honor of fighting on the front lines, getting up at night
when somebody hears a strange sound and changing the tire.
Not fair.
Not fair at all.
I think there should be a protest, but I don't know where to go to complain.
Jacob Stern in The Atlantic -
How has the internet evolved? From idealism to opportunism, from knowledge-
seeking to attention-grabbing, from asking questions to shouting answers.”
Very big - from Ars Technica
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last year found that,
for the third consecutive year, vaccination rates among kindergartners had
continued to slip, with rates of non-medical vaccination exemptions rising to an
all-time high. There are now 10 states with vaccination exemption rates over 5
percent, meaning that even if clinicians and health officials manage to vaccinate
all non-exempt children, the state will not be able to reach the target of 95
percent coverage needed to curb the spread of disease on a population level.
(What a weird choice for a Y-axis - looks like an attempt to make the initial
impression minimal. I hate all of this bs manipulation - but the primary point
remains.)
Much to ponder here
From Gallup -
In 2023, 43% of U.S. adults identified as independents, tying the record high from
2014. Meanwhile, Democratic identification fell to a new low of 27%.
It Ain't Easy Being Green
From The Economist
Just five years ago China shipped only a quarter as many cars as Japan, then the
world’s biggest exporter. This week the Chinese industry claimed to have
exported over 5m cars in 2023, exceeding the Japanese total. China’s biggest
carmaker, byd, sold 0.5m electric vehicles (evs) in the fourth quarter, leaving
Tesla in the dust. Chinese evs are so snazzy, whizzy and—most important—
cheap that the constraint on their export today is the scarcity of vessels for
shipping them. As the world decarbonises, demand will rise further. By 2030
China could double its share of the global market, to a third, ending the
dominance of the West’s national champions, especially in Europe.
Hertz to sell a third of its US electric vehicle fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars
due to weak demand and high repair costs for its battery-powered options
"underscores the waning demand for all-electric cars in the US"
War, Energy and Food
France is now planning to build 14, vs. 6, new reactors.
From Geopolitical Futures
The United States, meanwhile, imported oil from Russia in October for the first
time since imposing a ban on oil and other energy imports from Russia in March
2022, Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported, citing U.S. data. Russia’s
sales to the U.S. totaled $2.7 million in October and $750,000 in November.
There's Gonna Be Hell To Pay
Let's look at the coming election from both sides - Democrats speak first.
THE mandate is to stop Trump.
Yes, we have gender and race and Ukraine and green energy and Israel, BUT
WE HAVE TO STOP TRUMP. He is uncouth, unlettered, brutish and
totalitarian. Our country may not be able to survive a second Trump presidency.
The Iowa caucuses are coming up, and it looks like Trump will be the ultimate
nominee, without any serious opposition.
Politics is a dirty, nasty business, no matter who is practicing it. The sheer evil
of Trump gives us permission to go beyond the normal limits of dirtiness and
nastiness. The only way to fight fire is with fire. We have to do whatever it
takes. (There are echoes of the Vietnam War episode where, "We had to destroy
the village to save it.") Oh, and we have right on our side and should rule. We
have an unliked, mentally and physically deteriorating candidate, but he can beat
Trump and it is not clear we have anybody else who can. Definitely not Kamala.
Govenor Whitmer? Once we get Biden in, we will figure out how to prop him up
as long as we can. Our choice of his VP will be critical, because the whole world
will perceive that person as becoming the next President during Biden's second
term. This election will be about electing the VP and not electing Trump.
This is existential.
Now, the Republicans speak.
What has happened to our lives and our republic? Rampant riots and crime
without punishment. Major cities turning into outdoor toilets and drug dens.
Transgenders flaunting themselves in our elementary schools. Our Southern
border is overwhelmed - we are literally being invaded. We are called
supremacists and racists when all we want is to live our lives with our families.
They are taking away our jobs in centuries-old industries like mining. I cannot
have a future without having an IQ of at least 130. I am failing. Even if we can
find an opening for which we are qualified, they go to blacks and Hispanics,
even if they are less qualified. Costs are relentlessly increasing to the point I
cannot provide for my family. Freedom of speech is gone. My country is failing.
I am failing. I am angry and in despair. Our country may not be able to survive
this spiral of divisiveness, wokeness and crime. I need help and we must save
our country.
Trump may be many of the bad things people say about him, but he gets me - he
gets what is being done to our country. He is the only one who does. He is being
unfairly attacked by the entire leftist establishment and media, but they do not
understand, or maybe they do, that when they are attacking Trump, they are
attacking me.
This is existential.
The more it looks like Trump will win the presidential election, the nastier it will get.
The more one side does, the more the other side will react.
And, there we are.
(After I wrote this piece, I found a similarly-themed article by Ian Bremmer, which I
have provided at the bottom of this posting. Check him out at GZero Media.)
Miscellany
Pfew! It's ok, then
Just really, really bad - from The Bee
Ian Bremmer - Anus Horribilis
Why 2024 is the Voldemort of years
2024. Politically it’s the Voldemort of years. The annus horribilis. The year that must
not be named. I’d love to sugarcoat it, but I can’t: From a global political risk
perspective, this is the most dangerous and uncertain year I’ve covered in my lifetime.
As we write in Eurasia Group’s 2024 Top Risks report, three wars will dominate
world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its
third month; and the United States vs. itself, ready to kick off at any moment.
Russia vs. Ukraine … is getting worse. Russia now has the battlefield initiative and a
material advantage, while Ukraine stands to lose significant international interest and
support. For the United States, in particular, it’s become a distant second (and
increasingly third or lower) policy priority, despite hundreds of thousands of
casualties and millions of displaced Ukrainians.
Battlefield difficulties, diminishing Western support, and domestic political infighting
will leave Ukrainians feeling increasingly desperate, making Kyiv more risk-tolerant
and the conflict more likely to escalate. While Russia has no way to “win,” Ukraine
will be de facto partitioned this year and could “lose” the war as early as 2025.
Israel vs. Hamas … is getting worse. Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attacks jolted the Middle
East out of its complacency, and there’s no obvious way to end the fighting that has
ensued. While no country wants a regional war to erupt, the powder is dry, and the
number of players carrying matches – Israel’s war cabinet, Hezbollah, the Houthis,
Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq – makes the risk of escalation high. The current
fighting in Gaza is accordingly likely to be only the first phase in an expanding
conflict this year.
Whatever the military outcome, a dramatic increase in radicalization is guaranteed. Of
Israeli Jews, feeling themselves globally isolated and even hated after facing the worst
violence against them since the Holocaust. Of Palestinians, facing what they consider
a genocide, with no opportunities for peace and no prospects of escape. Deep political
divisions over the conflict run throughout the Middle East and across over one billion
people in the broader Muslim world, not to mention in the United States and Europe.
And then there’s the biggest challenge in 2024 … the United States vs. itself. While
America’s military and economy remain exceptionally strong, its political system is
more dysfunctional than that of any other advanced industrial democracy. The 2024
election will exacerbate this problem no matter who wins, worsening the country’s
political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t
experienced in 150 years, and undermining US credibility on the global stage.
Fully one-third of the global population will go to the polls this year, but an
unprecedentedly dysfunctional US election will be by far the most consequential for
the world’s security, stability, and economic outlook. The outcome will affect the fate
of 8 billion people, and only 160 million Americans will have a say in it, with the
winner to be decided by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states.
The losing side – whether Democrats or Republicans – will consider the outcome
illegitimate and be unprepared to accept it. The world’s most powerful country faces
critical challenges to its core political institutions: free and fair elections, the peaceful
transfer of power, and the checks and balances provided by the separation of powers.
With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only
certainty is continued damage to America’s social fabric and international standing.
The political state of the union … is troubled indeed.
********
None of these three conflicts have adequate guardrails preventing them from getting
worse. None have responsible leaders willing and able to fix, or at least clean up, the
mess. Indeed, these leaders see their opponents (and their opponents’ supporters) as
principal adversaries – “enemies of the people.” Most problematically, none of the
belligerents agree on what they’re fighting over.
By contrast, climate change has long been considered by many our greatest global
challenge, but the world is on the road to responding – collectively, even though too
slowly – because everyone understands the nature of the problem. There is too much
carbon dioxide (and methane) in the atmosphere, with a lot more coming because it’s
necessary for economic growth, leading to long-term damage to biodiversity and
affecting everyone but mostly the poorest. None of this remains controversial; it’s just
a question of who compromises how much – and who pays what and when. We have
a pretty good sense of where we are heading accordingly.
Not so for any of the major conflicts driving geopolitical risk this year. The terms of
confrontation are not shared: not the narratives, not the history, not even the basic
facts of the ongoing fighting. And in all three cases, we are creating generations of
incensed people prepared to dig in and battle for as long as it takes. Maybe an end to
the fighting can come when one or both sides are exhausted … but the prospects of a
sustainable peace? In Ukraine, in the Middle East, and in America, we’re not remotely
close.
I call this a G-Zero world, a world without global leadership. Where the United States,
the world’s sole remaining superpower, doesn’t want to be the world’s policeman, the
architect of global trade, or the cheerleader of global values. And no other country is
prepared to take that role for itself. We now see three major confrontations – and
many more risks, from ungoverned artificial intelligence and an axis of rogue states to
a fragile global economy and a politically disruptive El Nino climate pattern – that are
the direct result of our G-Zero world.
By its nature, the G-Zero will cause more unsolvable conflicts and uncontainable risks
in the years ahead – the only questions are where, when, and how destabilizing they
will be. And whether the resulting crises spur enough action to fix the underlying
problem with our “geopolitical recession” or only serve to make it worse.
Paraphrasing the Russian revolutionary Leon Trotsky, we may not want crisis, but in a
G-Zero world, crisis certainly wants us.
