Mortgage interest rates and home prices

X VARIABLE Y VARIABLE
30-year mortgage
Year interest rate (%) Median home price
1988 10.3 183,800
1989 10.3 183,200
1990 10.1 174,900
1991 9.3 173,500
1992 8.4 172,900
1993 7.3 173,200
1994 8.4 173,200
1995 7.9 169,700
1996 7.6 174,500
1997 7.6 177,900
1998 6.9 188,100
1999 7.4 203,200
2000 8.1 230,200
2001 7 258,200
2002 6.5 309,800
2003 5.8 329,800
Average 7.75 180,550
 Chart Title
350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

interest rate (%) Median home price

Linear (Median home price)
 SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.620157361647185
R Square 0.384595153205197
Adjusted R Square 0.340637664148425
Standard Error 41456.5175391033
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 15036839524.4203 15036839524.4203
Residual 14 24060999850.5797 1718642846.46998
Total 15 39097839375

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 393348.616267681 64595.4476711494 6.08941698601099
X Variable 1 -23409.4481014965 7914.17610445585 -2.95791346976932

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals Standard Residuals

1 152231.300822267 31568.6991777327 0.788216425870001
2 152231.300822267 30968.6991777327 0.773235452062388
3 156913.190442567 17986.8095574334 0.449099871437362
4 175640.748923764 -2140.74892376375 -0.0534508392592976
5 196709.252215111 -23809.2522151106 -0.594476306355671
6 222459.645126757 -49259.6451267567 -1.22992908902702
7 196709.252215111 -23509.2522151106 -0.586985819451865
8 208413.976265859 -38713.9762658588 -0.966621774045581
9 215436.810696308 -40936.8106963078 -1.02212214801427
10 215436.810696308 -37536.8106963078 -0.93722996310447
11 231823.424367355 -43723.4243673553 -1.09169912537743
12 220118.700316607 -16918.7003166071 -0.422431010503216
13 203732.08664556 26467.9133544404 0.660858527841699
14 229482.479557206 28717.5204427943 0.717027369288446
15 241187.203607954 68612.7963920461 1.71314417602711
16 257573.817279001 72226.1827209986 1.80336425261181
PUT

F Significance F
8.7492520946428 0.0103819759221208

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

2.79251327969302E-05 254805.160002509 531892.0725329 254805.1600025
0.0103819759221208 -40383.6676561706 -6435.22854682 -40383.6676562

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Percentile Y
3.125 169700
9.375 172900
15.625 173200
21.875 173200
28.125 173500
34.375 174500
40.625 174900
46.875 177900
53.125 183200
59.375 183800
65.625 188100
71.875 203200
78.125 230200
84.375 258200
90.625 309800
96.875 329800
 Normal Probability Plot
400000
300000
200000

Y
100000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Upper 95.0% Sample Percentile
531892.072532853
-6435.22854682237
 SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.972364342996725
R Square 0.945492415531452
Adjusted R Square 0.93558194562808
Standard Error 5406.37016803512
Observations 27

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 4 11154120959.1878 2788530239.797 95.40338901687
Residual 22 643034444.664042 29228838.39382
Total 26 11797155403.8519

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 100222.560661716 135917.874046758 0.7373758702791 0.468685940355
Price per week -689.522722819172 95.4028672831511 -7.227484272278 3.05234998E-07
Population of city 0.0549412800098363 0.072339148634056 0.759495806175 0.455617803156
Monthly income of rider -1.30136686658671 1.62745002141203 -0.799635533789 0.432471655133
Average parking rates p 152.456367263701 73.8629623666911 2.064043498646 0.051003698192

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Predicted Number of
Observation weekly riders Residuals Percentile
1 188848.914374116 3151.08562588433 1.851851851852
2 187778.954827383 2621.04517261736 5.555555555556
3 188493.832326604 2706.16767339606 9.259259259259
4 181358.585851734 -3758.58585173383 12.96296296296
5 179755.161668129 -2955.16166812909 16.66666666667
6 180691.27153467 -2291.27153467014 20.37037037037
7 178521.219846971 2278.78015302937 24.07407407407
8 174553.05948624 646.94051375991 27.77777777778
9 174018.079712874 381.920287126413 31.48148148148
10 173435.69560241 484.304397590138 35.18518518519
11 173150.814249827 -350.81424982677 38.88888888889
12 164482.889366945 -1282.88936694516 42.59259259259
13 163981.425984609 -2381.42598460862 46.2962962963
14 165916.902439586 -4316.90243958571 50
15 166144.204502538 -5344.20450253767 53.7037037037
16 162808.68669595 -3608.6866959499 57.40740740741
17 145052.910594968 3747.08940503211 61.11111111111
18 119572.666883623 -3876.66688362251 64.81481481481
19 139910.413330531 7289.58666946896 68.51851851852
20 139417.941525061 10982.0584749388 72.22222222222
21 141874.828954839 10125.1710451611 75.92592592593
22 138044.058352066 -2044.05835206644 79.62962962963
23 133915.039314617 -7675.03931461673 83.33333333333
24 127179.763340156 -3291.76334015554 87.03703703704
25 133969.260144483 -7889.26014448254 90.74074074074
26 143180.198935093 8499.80106490656 94.44444444444
27 154647.22015398 -1847.2201539799 98.14814814815
 Normal Probability Plot

Number of weekly riders

250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sample Percentile
Significance F
1.43862307492989E-13

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-181653.857770626 382098.979094058 -181653.8577706 382098.979094058
-887.376159878521 -491.669285759822 -887.3761598785 -491.66928575982
-0.0950809320974387 0.20496349211711 -0.095080932097 0.20496349211711
-4.67649163535294 2.07375790217953 -4.676491635353 2.07375790217953
-0.726041104188568 305.63877563159 -0.726041104189 305.63877563159

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Number of weekly riders

115696
123888
126080
126240
136000
147200
148800
150400
151680
152000
152800
159200
160800
161600
161600
163200
172800
173920
174400
175200
176800
177600
178400
180800
190400
191200
192000
 Demand estimation using linear regression
Y X1 X2 X3
City Number of weekly riders Price per week Population of city Monthly income of riders
1 192000.00 15.00 1800000.00 5800.00
2 190400.00 15.00 1790000.00 6200.00
3 191200.00 15.00 1780000.00 6400.00
4 177600.00 25.00 1778000.00 6500.00
5 176800.00 25.00 1750000.00 6550.00
6 178400.00 25.00 1740000.00 6580.00
7 180800.00 25.00 1725000.00 8200.00
8 175200.00 30.00 1725000.00 8600.00
9 174400.00 30.00 1720000.00 8800.00
10 173920.00 30.00 1705000.00 9200.00
11 172800.00 30.00 1710000.00 9630.00
12 163200.00 40.00 1700000.00 10570.00
13 161600.00 40.00 1695000.00 11330.00
14 161600.00 40.00 1695000.00 11600.00
15 160800.00 40.00 1690000.00 11800.00
16 159200.00 40.00 1630000.00 11830.00
17 148800.00 65.00 1640000.00 12650.00
18 115696.00 102.00 1635000.00 13000.00
19 147200.00 75.00 1630000.00 13224.00
20 150400.00 75.00 1620000.00 13766.00
21 152000.00 75.00 1615000.00 14010.00
22 136000.00 80.00 1605000.00 14468.00
23 126240.00 86.00 1590000.00 15000.00
24 123888.00 98.00 1595000.00 15200.00
25 126080.00 87.00 1590000.00 15600.00
26 151680.00 77.00 1600000.00 16000.00
27 152800.00 63.00 1610000.00 16200.00
average 160026.00 49.93
egression
X4
Average parking rates per month
50.00
50.00
60.00
60.00
60.00
70.00
75.00
75.00
75.00
80.00 Chart Title
80.00 2000000.00
80.00
85.00 1800000.00
100.00
1600000.00
105.00
105.00
1400000.00
105.00
110.00 1200000.00
125.00
130.00 1000000.00
150.00
155.00 800000.00

165.00
600000.00
175.00
175.00 400000.00
190.00
200.00 200000.00

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Column B Linear (Column B)

Column C Column D
Column E Column F
 20 25 30

Linear (Column B)
Column D
Column F