Micro Star (2377 TT) : Equities
Micro Star (2377 TT) : Equities
Equities
    Micro Star (2377 TT)                                                                                      Computers & Peripherals
GM still under pressure: The margin pressure is likely to persist going into 4Q24e,                        FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (TWD)
                                                                                                           Year to                 12/2023a          12/2024e          12/2025e        12/2026e
primary due to elevated R&D expenses and incremental promotional fees, as the                              HSBC EPS                     8.92             10.21             13.02           15.03
company is in a product transition period. We expect 4Q24 sales growth to come in at                       HSBC EPS (prev)              8.92             13.03             14.95             NA
                                                                                                           Change (%)                    0.0             -21.6             -12.9             NA
9.3% q-o-q, with a lower gross margin of 12.4%. Management mentioned that new
                                                                                                           Consensus EPS               11.12             11.27             14.32           16.26
products, including gaming PCs and RTX 50-series graphics cards, are likely to launch                      PE (x)                       18.8              16.4              12.9            11.1
in early 1Q25. Overall, given the PC refreshment cycle and new graphic cards to be                         Dividend yield (%)            3.2               3.7               4.7             5.4
                                                                                                           EV/EBITDA (x)                11.3              10.9               7.8             6.4
launched next year, we expect 13% revenue growth in 2025e, while we also estimate                          ROE (%)                      15.0              16.2              19.0            18.9
gross margin to improve from 12.7% in 2024e to 14.2% in 2025e, and while our
operating profit estimate for 2025e is still 14% below consensus.                                          52-WEEK PRICE (TWD)
                                                                                                                                                                                 220.00
Maintain Hold rating with an unchanged target price of aTWD143: We introduce
our 2026e EPS estimate. We lower our 2024e EPS estimate by 22% to reflect the                                                                                                    175.00
slower margin recovery and lower our 2025e EPS estimate by 13% to factor in delayed                                                                                               130.00
                                                                                                                  11/23                       05/24                          11/24
product launches. Our 2024-25e EPS estimates is 17% and 11% below consensus,                                                      Target price: 143.00
                                                                                                                                  High: 204.00 Low: 154.00 Current: 167.50
respectively. We apply a target PE multiple of 11x, given that the recovery in 2025e
could lead to a healthier CAGR in the next two years, as the company has passed the                        Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates
trough, given the end of the inventory correction in 2023. Our unchanged target PE
multiple of 11x is one standard deviation above the trading average in the past five                       Carol Juan*
                                                                                                           Analyst, Technology
years, as we estimate a faster EPS growth CARG of 2023-25e of 21% (versus down                             HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited
24% y-o-y in 2023). We apply this target PE multiple to our 2025e EPS estimate of                          [email protected]
                                                                                                           +886 2 6631 2862
TWD13.02 (from TWD13.03; rolled over to 2025e from 2024e) and maintain our target
price of TWD143.00. Our target price implies c15% downside from the current share                          Al Wang*
                                                                                                           Associate, Technology Research
price. We maintain our Hold rating, as we see a slower margin recovery in 2H24e.                           HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited
                                                                                                           [email protected]
                                                                                                           +886 26631 2865
Exhibit 1: MSI – 3Q24a results comparison
                            _____________ 3Q24a _________ Consensus          HSBC ______ Difference ___    * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is
(TWDm)                         Actual      q-o-q      y-o-y estimates    estimates  vs Cons vs HSBCe       not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations
Sales                          52,087        12%        6%     51,484       53,996       1%          -4%
Gross profit                    6,604         6%       14%       7,228        7,499     -9%         -12%
GM (%)                         12.7%      -71bps     85bps      14.0%        13.9%  -136bps      -121bps                   Conditional love
Op profit                       2,128        -4%       -4%       3,194        3,396    -33%         -37%              th
OM (%)                          4.1%      -64bps    -46bps       6.2%         6.3%  -212bps      -220bps   The 17 edition of the EM Sentiment Survey
Net profit                      1,732       -18%      -26%       2,727        2,993    -36%         -42%
EPS (TWD)                        2.05       -18%      -26%        3.24         3.54    -37%         -42%                              Click to view
Source: Company data, Bloomberg consensus forecasts, HSBC estimates
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                                                                                                                                                18 November 2024
Financials
                                               300                                                                  250
                                                          Unit: TWD                                                           Unit: TWD
                                               250                                                                  200
                                               200
                                                                                                                    150
                                               150
                                                                                                                    100
                                               100
50 50
                                                    0                                                                  0
                                                    Jan-17           Jan-19      Jan-21       Jan-23                   Jan-17             Jan-19      Jan-21         Jan-23
                                                              MSI                 5.0x                 7.0x                       MSI                  1.00x                  1.50x
                                                              9.0x                11.0x                13.0x                      2.00x                2.50x                  3.00x
                                             Source: TEJ, HSBC estimates                                          Source: TEJ, HSBC estimates
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                                                                                                                              Equities ● Computers & Peripherals
                                                                                                                                             18 November 2024
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Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)
whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering
analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or
issuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other
views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect
their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Carol Juan and Al Wang
Important disclosures
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                                                                                                      Equities ● Computers & Peripherals
                                                                                                                     18 November 2024
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                                                                                              Equities ● Computers & Peripherals
                                                                                                             18 November 2024
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                                                                                                                                                Equities ● Computers & Peripherals
                                                                                                                                                               18 November 2024
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